Goldman Sachs says EV Batteries will fall 50% and be cheaper than ICE
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- Опубліковано 14 жов 2024
- Goldman Sachs says EV Batteries will fall 50% and be cheaper than ICE
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Cost parity with ICE is not just a matter of EVs getting cheaper, the cost to make ICE cars will continue to go up too.
Correct. Declining ICEV sales means a loss of scaling efficiency. If you order fewer gas caps, each gas cap will cost more.
@@bobwallace9753 Making a car hybrid or phev also increases parts count and assembly costs.
Agreed but eventually EV will rise too as they have less competition
@@tbirdbrad3210 The number of EVs being produced from each manufacturer will continue to increase. How is that less competition?
@@skipondowntheroad5833Demand is increasing too.
Goldman makes huge money from oil and gas, and transportation and related industries. Not much from EVs, battery, etc. So this report is a very big admission.
Goldman makes huge money from anything and everything.
I wouldn’t trust anything coming out of Goldman Sachs personally. Especially around EV,s lithium, batteries, etc.. They go bearish, and bullish depending on what they are trying to achieve at the time. I strongly suspect the media is the great conveyer of anything dubious that goes out to the masses to suit the current narrative in play as well, on behalf of many hedge funds and other ‘interested’ parties to either increase positive investment growth, or so a stock can be shorted. My views anyway.
They've been trimming the size, but Buffet has invested in BYD for a very long time. Who do you think was Buffet's favorite banker?
Thank you for another video. Enjoy your time with your wife and kids in California.
❤❤
The Bloomberg news confirms much of what Tony Seba has been saying for a long time. The changes are shifting into high gear due to the rapidly falling battery prices. As the technology improves and gets cheaper ICE vehicles will not be able to compete in price or quality. It remains to be seen how soon prices in the US will decline. Current government policies are aimed at protecting the legacy companies and thus the competition here is not as intense as in other parts of the world. Nevertheless, there comes a point where even tariffs cannot stem the tide.
I live in Florida USA and yes, I just dodged three hurricanes. I have had a small EV for three years and have never charged it away from home. The local Walmart just rebuild it's gas station but did not include charging, We have a new shopping center with a gas station but no chargers. In the last three years we have added no new chargers. I defend EVs on UA-cam and all I get is the lack of charging.
Soon my friend. Soon.
@@removalrequest3993 How, my friend. How? Walmart, big shopping centers, office buildings, large parking structures are all privately owned. If they don't want chargers, you can't force them. There must be an economic incentive and you know there's more profit in selling gas than selling kilowatts and all those parking spaces attached to chargers are very expensive. Walmart wants their parking for paying customers not for someone charging up to go to work or on a trip. I agree it will happen but not soon.
Florida is different. Best of luck 😢
All the best mate, hope it all goes well for you all. AND Thanks for the great videos👍😊
I was just comparing some prices today. Here in Mexico BYD has recently set up shop. The BYD seagul only cost 20% more than a very similar Hyundai vehicle called the i10. A real small diference. Going for the BYD electric car is a no brainer.
45% of the cost of an EV is technology: battery and computer chips and sensors. All technology seems o follow the same reduction of price over time. Each doubling of cumulative production results in a percentage decrease in cost due to improvements in manufacturing efficiency, material sourcing, and technological innovations.
In addition to that, look at the specs of the cybercab: no steering wheel, no pedals, no rear and side mirrors, not even a rear window. The only moving parts are the wheels, the doors, and the electric motors, all controls are wired. The car body is made up of large gigacast pieces, significantly simplifying assembly, maintenance, and repair compared to the complexity of an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.
And. The Robotaxi is almost certainly designed to be manufactured with very little human labor. Optimus robots should be highly reliable and highly accurate workers who cost less than $0.25/hour.
@bobwallace 9753 optimus robots are just a megalomaniacs fever dream, industrial robots with mains power supply, and fixed to the floor are more than adequate.
I think batteries will be cheaper than that if you compare same to same. What will also happen is there will be better higher destiny batteries so not directly comparable to today’s batteries. The per kilowatt hour measurement is a fair comparison.
Yep. As kWh per kilogram increases the weight of the vehicle drops for the same range. That lowers the amount of battery needed (and further lowers the weight).
@@bobwallace9753 And that is destiny. 😉
Cybertruck needs to be 500+ mile range at the current price they're selling it, so that should happen when batteries drop 50%. And they should throw in free FSD for all their premium cars S, X, and Cybertruck if they really want to increase sales.
Good video and good analysis Sam! Thanks for your continued hard work at this difficult time
Great content, enjoying the channel. Have you done any episodes on electric power tools or ride on mowers? I love electric and am building an electric lawn and landscape company. Ego and greenworks commercial seem to be the leaders in quality and innovation as new companies. Do you have anything to add to the electric tools conversation?
Tesla’s profit margin used to be over 30%. Now it is closer to 10%.
Selling cars not a good business. Selling rides probably is.
Volume up 400%
This would never of happened without musk. The legacy automakers would of been in agrreance with each other to not go into electric.
Fully agree. I have social and political differences with Musk but am thankful Tesla is an American company. We'd have nothing from legacy without Tesla.
Musk started, the Chineses will finish.
Na, it is the Chinese who have picked up the ball and run with it now. They not only make most of the batteries, they make the best quality ones. Not that Tesla won't continue to make money to fund SpaceX - it will. Both Musk and Diess' (then CEO VW) predicted in 2020 that it is the Chinese, not themselves, who will drive the legacy makers bankrupt - especially the US and Japanese makers. That is coming true.
The Chinese EV industry, and thus the global EV industry, would have been fine without Musk. Also, Tesla would''ve been nothing without the gift of a free factory and early incentives from the state of California.
@@calc1657GM received us$17.4b bail out in 2008… where 11.2b was written off (source Reuters)
From my observation and historical market pattern, there might be a bit of turbulence in the market coming up, but here's the deal: Trying to guess what's going to happen next is less important than spreading your bets when trading and thinking long term. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape....
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Excellent as always, Sam.
🤗 GREAT NEWS SAM 🔋🔋🔋
Viking, do you have net metering on your home. God bless
Its all about the battery really. Crazy!!!
That’s what she said……..
Sorry, but this misses one major point entirely: where are the independent EV mechanics, and who will manufacture high-cost non-OEM parts?... Exactly. The PURCHASE PRICE will be coming down, but there is NO COMPETITION for repairs.
And this is coming from an EV fan...
@@PierreEssNot too many EV mechanics are needed. Just like not many smart phone and tablet computer mechanics are needed.
The body and suspension of EVs can be worked on by any mechanic. The motors and batteries can also be switched out or replaced by any mechanic. No extensive mechanical work is needed for basic repairs on EVs.
No engine and transmission rebuilds required on EVs. No engine accessories are needed for EVs. No exhaust system, catalytic converter, exhaust or pollution controls on EVs. NO separate transfer cases on AWD EVs.
Hundreds of less parts on EVs compared to ICE vehicles.
@@dvader3263what about the cooling, ac and heating systems when they get old and start to leak??? What about the inverters etc?
@dvader3263 Yup, I went to do my 10 000 km mandatory service for my EV recently. The workshop (operated by the car dealer) was even more sparse that a backyard mechanic's shed. There was a car lifter, a tyre changing machine, a specialised diagnostic equipment and a set of tool cabinets. That was it. Nothing else. And the floor was unsurprisingly oil free. For my 10K service, they checked my overall car condition, brake-pad thickness and then replaced the cabin air filter. The mechanics there must have some of the easiest mechanics job.
What parts do they need?
I wish you had time to come to Orlando and see Disneyworld. All of Disneyland in California fits inside the parking lot of animal Kingdom.. just for perspective
So, EV batteries will drop in price.
How about those for stationary energy storage ?
Those prices remain disgustingly high…
GO SAM!
EV battery price dropped around 80% compared to a few years ago ! And will drop by another 50% based on current
pricing ! This is why some of the EV battery producers in the West ( as well as in China ) went bankrupt in the last
2 - 3 years ......
I hope this pans out
I'm hoping that the battery costs keep declining and I suspect that the Model Ys (and maybe others) will have option to obtain replacement batteries from Tesla and 3rd parties for much reduced prices as well as enhancements to range and charging speed? So today's purchase of a popular EV such as the Tesla Model Y, might be a wiser purchase than it seems.
And if I were Tesla, I would continue to support old EVs with upgraded batteries when they need replacement batteries. This will further cement Tesla's lead.
It’s not just battery price decline why Tesla is cheaper. Tesla are always looking to remove weight of the vehicle. Also they are constantly looking to improve the car. Where old OEMs do changes in 4 years, Tesla can implement improvements in hours
The demise of the Internal Combustion Engine will be faster than people think. Once the dis-economies of scale kick in - individual companies will be unprofitable - with unending factory closures and layoffs, with no hope of recovery. Then the whole industry will implode, with virtually all ICE manufacturers and associated supply companies having unacceptable losses, with closure and bankruptcy an inevitability. This is what happens to a huge, rapidly declining industry.
And the cost of recycling?
Price is just part of what needs to happen before EVs can replace ICE in America. Range anxiety and charge time issue also needs to be resolved. Most Americans like having cars that can occasional go far. Camping. road trips, and so on. If a car only has 300 mile range and you have to wait an hour to "fill up" most of the population won't buy them even if cheap.
Chinese battery companies latest offerings seem to have solve all three problem.s Unfortunately Americans can't buy them because of the current dumb trade war that hurts both Chinese and American consumers and companies. . Autarky economics and mercantilism are not economically efficient but unfortunately many throw reason out the window when it comes to national egos.
I rarely see anyone talk about lithium mining or mining stocks that will benefit from EVs?
Just curious if ALB is on anyone’s radar?
I own a Tesla Y - will it be possible to upgrade the car's batteries when the cost, performance and quality of new batteries is markedly improved?
unlikely
More likely to be an aftermarket for dismantling Teslas for parts rather than new battery designs to fit into older models.
In context how can lithium mining companies produce batteries if it cost. More to produce than to sell?
The cost of building a ice and a ev is getting wider by the year in the future only rich people could own a ice, that how cheap these battery will be.
"Stop analysing the future based on yesterday" - Tony Seba calls that 'faster horse syndrome'
The cheap batteries with cheap solar panels will change everything. Every house will be covered by solar panels and have private or community battery storage that will be able to charge in the summer for the while winter. No gas or petrol needed to heat/cool homes and operate home appliances and EV. The energy monopolies will go bust as energy will be almost for free, abundance of energy always drives prosperity and a technological revolution.
Generation at the consumer level has economic advantages. You're generating at wholesale rates, avoiding retail rates.
But most people won’t live in houses.
EV adoption is limited by the number of people who can charge at home
@@SigFigNewtonTwo thirds of the people in the USA live in single family dwellings.
Maybe not so many in the rest of the world.
The entire world has plenty of room for solar panels for the electric needs of everyone.
This won't happen...there is only so much batteries can reduce...it's not the manufacturing...it's the cost of materials...which are scarce....not enough mines..
Yeah I'm wondering if they just mean lithium (cheaper recently, but rare) or are factoring in sodium (only recently started being used in batteries, but common)
@@michaelmartin9022 battery prices have already come down to a base...60% of the cost of a battery is lithium, copper etc...these won't reduce due to high demand and long lead times on mines...prices don't go to zero..
So you didn’t listo the video
@@SigFigNewton why do you think that ya goose?
He's wrong. As is the article which he is getting the info from (which I'd already read).
Battery prices went up in 2022...the trend has flattened...they aren't getting cheaper.
Thanks for that. That was my initial question too. Reduction in cost per unit in manufacturing is mostly achieved by mass production..is my understand. So if the input materials are hovering at the same price, I'm not convinced there is room to cut costs.
Yes. It is already happening and will get much cheaper soon. Maybe not so much in the US or EU but it will be much cheaper in China and most of the rest of the world. 😂
Now EVs just need to keep improving on the safety, faster and more charging stations and can go for more distance per charge. Soon, everyone will go for EVs instead of ICE.
Far as I know even Tesla currently has nothing that can compete with CATL's current best on performance and price. So what specific factory in America does Goldman Sachs claim is going to churn out competitive batteries at price points you currently find only in China? Widescale EV adoption s inevitable but given current trade war two years seems a bit optimistic schedule for EV batteries to drop by 50 percent in at least America.
But America is less than a fifth of the world car market.
@@kenoliver8913 Is Goldman arguing global average battery prices or American prices?
It doesn’t really matter what people or influencers say. In the Australian market just look at the data. BEV sales in Australia (FCAI figures) have stagnated and hybrids are becoming popular. ICE sales remain dominant and have even increased this year contrary to what was expected. People aren’t flocking to buy a BEV, it’s as simple as that. Why they’re not flocking to Tesla or BYD dealers is perhaps something that someone else can explain in the comments. I’m just an observer, not an analyst.
Australia is not blessed with choice for EVs thanks to our historically poor emissions standards. Europe and the UK have access to well over 30 different EV makes and models. We have about 4 or 5. However, what will happen next will change things here in Australia. Firstly, China is currently at just over 50% NEV sales (BEVs and PHEVs - not sure of the split). There are about 53 EV automakers in China wanting to dominate and break out and export their cars. The USA has imposed a 100% tariff. Europe is imposing a tariff. So what do you think will happen? China will export wherever else they can, namely South-east Asia and South America. We can expect a literal tsunami of cheap chinese EVs because we dont impose tariffs as we no longer have a car industry to protect. China has mandated that it will be full EV by 2035. They also want to displace Japan as the leadeing car exporter, which they actually achieved already this year. But they are going bigger and they are right on our doorstep. Expect massive influxes of cheaper EVs into Australia between now and 2035.
Have a look on the Australian roads you will see a lot of EVs. Plenty of Tesla and BYD are getting sold, new vehicles and refreshes are coming the numbers will take off again.
@@trythis2821 We spent all last year 2023 on a 35,000 km road trip around Australia in our 4X4 motorhome (Explorer Vision-Ford Ranger chassis). Yes, we saw a sprinkle of EV’s in the cities and larger country towns but once you leave the major highways we only spotted a handful of adventurous EV’s over the whole 12 months away. We live in FNQ and do long road trips but If we lived in for example, Carlton or Brunswick close to the Melbourne CBD and had offstreet parking, I would possibly consider a Fiat 500 E or something in the Yaris size to zip around town, but absolutely positively nothing built in China. I will never buy a Chinese car, ICE or EV.
@@zoransarin5411 You described it correctly Zoran. “A tsunami of cheap Chinese EV’s”. But items that are cheap are generally items of lesser quality, that’s why they’re cheap. It’s a formula. Chinese products are throwaway appliances, no reason to think their EV’s will be any different. In Australia according to the latest FCAI figures (Sept 2024), BEV sales have stagnated, hybrids are the preference for people opting out of ICE, and ICE sales have increased over all other types. So the trend is that Australians aren’t particularly interested in battery powered cars. If down the track BYD sells them here for say, $15000 AUD drive away price and a 600 km range with aircon running continuously (think of FNQ where I live) then that might get peoples attention.
@@MrPropanePete I strongly disagree. I can recall when the Hyundai Excel was first released in Australia. It was considered to be cheap junk. They lasted extremely well and Hyundai has grown to be an extremely reputable car company. With Chinese cars, you fail to understand the extremely cheap labour costs in China. Cheap does not mean lacking in quality. The Chinese have been learning how to make cars from the best for many years by forcing the likes of Ford, VW, GM, Mercedes and Stellantis into joint ventures. They are using the EV transition to dominate the world car market and using the reluctance of the traditional automakers in building EVs. They are clearly hoping to take over the mantle from Japan. I recently spent a week in China and got to see the level of poverty and low prices on goods compared to what we have. Their salaries are a pittance compared to us. They aren't cheap due to low quality.
about the first statement battery prices arnt the key reason, tesla enjoyed the highest margins for a while and they brought that down, love ur optimism but sometimes u overdo it.
as battery technology advances and prices come down, it is conceivable that EV will become cheaper than ICE cars
Expected
It's already happening MGEV 31k
If the ICE cars start losing money the market will stop making them (less than 5 years, not 10 or 20) Who will buy stock of a company that sells less units every year?
👍👍
At least 12 battery manufacturers under construction right now in the u.s. Toyota ford and gm will have their plants producing batteries within the next 6 months. That means 12 months from now when the 2026 electric vehicles are released all will have American batteries in them. Electric will then take off in the u.s. one year from now.
Ford and GM are going bankrupt...their financials are in the toilet. They both have WAYYY too much debt.
Toyota might survive thanks to its financial reserves but make no mistake; it's going to be a bloodbath.
This sounds great but infrastructure is still the big sticking point. A 25-30K EV puts it into the price range of renters. Where is a renter going to charge it in the near future? Go out 3 to 5 years, fine I can see it improving by then but by 2026 which is 15 months from now? You've now spent some time in LA where there are 8 MILLION registered vehicles. The metro area is crammed full of residents, there is a housing shortage, land is very expensive. Use your imagination and assume there are 1,000,000 EV's owned by renters in Los Angeles, many crammed into older but affordable single family homes, no way they can charge up there and they are in poorer neighborhoods where vandalism is a thing anyway. They need somewhere safe to charge. Imagine a single mom working at a restaurant running late because day care is late opening and having to find a public charger with space available instead of all the gas stations on every corner. Is that possible? Sure....eventually.
How many public chargers are needed to handle a million EV's? 100,000? 200,000? Where are they all going to go within 2 years? And LA's very old electrical grid, don't forget bout that. Then there are several million old ICE cars that can last 15 or 20 years. You've been driving around LA for a week. How many old cars did you see? A whole lot. They'll all need gas so the oil industry is not going away any time soon. Then there's the political side of this with all the legacy union jobs that they will want to protect. I agree this will happen but not as fast as you think.
Viking knows this , Norway more than 90% adoption of EV’s :
12.8 road deaths toll per 100,000 people USA Australia 4.54 per 100,000 Norway 2.14 and could be less than 0.1% once FSD is implemented next year , A great pension and cheap housing In Norway and great gas & oil export industry like Australia , Norway and 2026 Norways RDT could be astonishing, Elon Musk has spelt this out many times and I’m sure Viking can clarify and knows already …. It’s going to be very interesting
Depreciation will be dropping faster than the battery
Yes absolutely 100% correct, depreciation on ice vehicles will be astonishing, used EV batteries are of great value, ice are already being used a scrap for EV’s , EV’s 100% recyclable , no service issues or local mechanics to rip you off every simple oil change, less bake pads and service, giant corporations moving to EV Tesla semi , factory well on its way to completion and mass production of Tesla semi
Discussion of Tesla's annual reports indicate a "net profit" of $8,000 per car. This is the or, one of the best unit margins in the industry. It is a fuzzy number as it encompasses their entire unit production. With the release of the Ford electric Transit van a somewhat accurate guess can be made as to the "difference in cost" as Ford makes an electric and gas model....A guy I know did a breakdown at the time with the difference between the gas and EV being...get ready for this...$7,500 more for the electric....I know you're shocked.
Pack prices in 2020/21 might have been $155. Both Ford and Tesla were talking at the "$100/kwh pack price barrier" at that time.
The big mfr's are going into "battery 2.0" territory this year and next. BloombergNEF has published lfp pack prices in China at $75/kwh. This would bring down the transit cost for the battery by $5,000 if they used China made LFP packs which they don't.
Sam, thanks to you, I am hopeful that this transition will happen in a two year time frame. Here in Canada, however, I see little evidence of this happening🫤
Iam happy to spend more money for petrol car
(They already are)
Soon, driving an ICE vehicle will be treated with disdain similar to how smokers are viewed today. When you're following an older car without catalytic converters the exhaust is awful. Burning fossil fuels is damaging to the environment.It's good to go electric. Adopt change and move on.
The price will go down also thanks to circular economy add most of the materials used in EV can be recycled which will be possible thanks to very cheap energy and that will also make the EV even cheaper. The lithium from batteries does not go anywhere, it is not lost and can be recycled as steel and plastics. The EV will be so cheap that only the largest manufacturers with thousands of robots will make profit making them. The car ndustry consolidation is inevitable.
EV ‘s are electronics , so just like any electronics it will get cheaper and cheaper.
EV and ICE car both are expensive now
Strangely Tesla stock is going nowhere because of low margins
Yes EV batteries will fall 50% if combustion engines cars prices skyrocketed over 100%
Margins came down a lot duh
And yet, cellphones, laptops and anything connected to technology gets more and more expensive.
Housing is more expensive, food, taxes, hydro, everything.
People can barely afford to keep their homes, do you really think they are going to put their hard earned money into a depreciating asset for 7 years and pay thousands of dollars each year?
No.
When it comes to putting food on the table for your family versus competing with some jack hole down the street over what fridge is in the driveway, food will always win.
You will be happy with nothing is going to be the governments new saying
So it makes no sense to buy a EV now. Wait a few years and get them cheaper
I dont see "contains commercial content" on ALL YOUR VIDEOS, you've been flogging the solar company that put up your "probably sponsored free solar panel installation" in all your videos.
Pay for YT Premium, No commercials
As long as 1990s vehicles are low cost to maintain, I can wait! When EV promises are reality, I'll be the first to know!
How you’re going with your Blackberry phone 😂😂😂😂
No you won't. EV promises have already been delivered. It's just a US problem that we're not letting ourselves buy less expensive EVs.
You are clearly already the LAST to know.
For backing Trump I hope Tesla fail.
There was no option
Cheaper batteries to come. Better technology to come. We are still in the age of the hybrid until ev stability is reached.
Watching this video and thinking, if my relationship was this much fun, we'd never fight😚
J'ai regardé cette vidéo et j'ai tellement ri que mon copain a cru que j'étais folle. Maintenant, il rit aussi 😻