The Risks of Aramco's Record-Setting IPO, Explained | WSJ
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- Опубліковано 2 гру 2019
- On the surface, Aramco’s blockbuster IPO might seem like a sure bet. But investors who are looking to put money into the world’s most profitable company have to factor in a number of risks before rolling the dice.
Video: Jaden Urbi; Photo illustration: Crystal Tai
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Really love how WSJ provides such rich quality content free on YT, unlike the paid content of their website and mags.
I just imagined , you are the type of person who is right now reading the news but at the same time clipping coupons 😊 you don't miss a freebie...
@@Joker-Leto no, it's just that I really liked something that happens to be a freebie and I'm glad it is.
@@SirVib 🤣🤣😊😂 I hear ya!!
nothing is "free" in this world, you're not being sold something you're being programmed that's why it's free.
@@spfbaits intresting take, kinda agree to it. If something is free, then YOU are the product.
This IPO may be a means for the Saudi royal family to maintain majority control of Aramco, while raising hundreds of billions of dollars, which they will also have majority control over.
"may"? :)
@@TheInnerParty OK, you've made a good point. I was just trying not to be too blunt about the IPO. Thank you for your comment.
Robert Schlesinger as a Saudi citizen who did not put any money in this IPO. I can guarantee you it was for that exact reason, they only want to reap the rewards. And the people are starving here from simple rights.
@@uchclan I believe you, but how can things change when the powers that be are so entrenched?
Robert Schlesinger because evil will never triumph. The truth is already floating on shallow waters.
Someday a government would be listed in the stock exchange. You know... TAXATION is a pretty solid business model.
why would they sell such a lucrative business like that
money grab? I'd buy a million shares in Communist China, the most lucrative capitalistic dictatorship ever
ever heard of nation issued bonds, not much different except bonds are financed through debt while stocks are through equity (share ownership), but both have values that are affected by the market.
bonds are only chump change. Step 1: Nationalize your most profitable private sectors (oil/gas, real-estate, tech...) Step 2: Fill your nationalized companies board members/execs with your families and political friends. Step 3: IPO your newly nationalized companies. Step 4: Get your family and friends emigrate to America/EU with newfound wealth. Step 5: Use your new money to buy American/EU local businesses.
Taxation is what is letting you type this on the internet. The more you know.
1 week after this video the Aramco IPO has just surpassed 2 Trillion dollars.
@Sam Alghamdi
Correct, thank you for the correction.
i know right insane
@@bodz9408
In 2 days aswell.
Trying to cash out before the inevitable demise of the oil industry.
it's hardly cashing out, they're selling only %1.5 stake of the company
Do u belive what u said?)))
@@esamabuhadi6589 They the plan 49% . 1.5% only on local market because it can't stand the much of shares
@A Fridays - Well, everything they said is true if you're talking about a slight downturn in the value of oil. But a drastic shift in the energy market? Not any time soon.
Will never happen
There's literally no guarantee the Saudi royal family won't just nationalize Aramco again when they need extra cash. Just imagine an oil glut or a war with Iran, both of which are almost an inevitability within the near term.
@@DefinitelyNotBlackOpalDirect Rich people always find a way to save themselves...after the 2008 financial crisis, the people who were responsible for the crisis became filthy rich and quietly disappeared from public view after their fat payout, while the little guy struggles to recover from their losses to this day...the Saudi royal family with their trillion have the protection of some of the most powerful countries in the world like US, China...Khashoggi annoyed MBS for years, but everybody thought, "No way is Saudis ever going to try assassinate a journalist!"; you know how that ended and what price did Saudi royal family pay for it!??
@@DefinitelyNotBlackOpalDirect it's wouldn't be the first time Saudi Arabia nationalized an oil company. If the shares are listed within Saudi Arabia and the brokerage account is also within Saudi Arabia, then they do have a way of simply taking those shares.
IPO: It's Probably Overpriced
Not this one my friend
The scale of this company is beyond any imagination
As an Aramcon I can say Aramco is bigger than many think
Every piece of plastic ever or anytime u put fuel in your car or every road that is paved has 50/50 chance of being made by this company
Too much insider trading in TADAWUL....
The fact that they are trying to do an IPO smells they need money before it's goes really under. Electric Vehicles will rule.
So you are saying that Aramco IPO has some risks is like any other IPO or investment
MrSabe7 there is no investment with zero risk
If you are planning to buy Aramco shares , here is the only broker you can , my.ads-securities.com/client-portal-web/signup.html?ref=RC095914
@@ameyas7726 agree. There are risks in investment and there are "RISK" in a dictatorship country that fund terrorist/gets targeted/at the edge of war with another country which is Iran.
Ameya S so I understand from your comment that your opinion is biased and you are taking it personally
You didn't address the fact the Aramco is moving to petrochemicals and also it owns a considerable share in Jaban Solar company and many petrochemicals plants especially after acquiring Sabic
they didn't do that because it might have not fitted their agenda against Saudi
i love how the wall street journal likes to imply stocks are the same as slot machines. A company that has billions in revenues of real dollars, and supplies countries with one of the main factors that causes their GDP to increase(fuel), is not a slot machine.
it's all part of WSJ's scheme to make the public and investors worried. They talk about the transition from oil to renewables. What transition? renewables are still a small niche and oil is also used for other important things in the economy like farming and plastic manufacture. There are risks with every company and IPO but at least Aramco is doing an IPO. Its a HUGE company and that makes it all more complicated than what they are suggesting in this video
*Nevermind the 3rd quarter was marked by a terrorist attack that cut production in half for days.*
But the market didn't get effect 😑
it's interesting that wsj ran this video
Saudi is diversifying from oil, Which means ARAMCO could be pushed in the direction. Ethically speaking, that is the right thing. And given that the company is under direct control of the Saudi government, pushing the Company to diversify its resource into renewable like they did with Gas is very likely.
I don't think ARAMCO has the capability of diversifying. It pretty much is a paradigm for "Dutch Disease." The next billion dollars of investment capital would almost certainly be most profitably spent on new oil drilling, not a wind farm. This will be true for decades, even under the most optimistic "green" scenario. Pretty much, if you are buying into ARAMCO, you are buying the oil business.
Their oil, their country, their rules.
SJA not their investments. But my money. The shares have gone up by 15% in no time... Am expecting they will go up by 100% in next 6 months... Kudos to the ones who have invested... Saudis wouldn’t let the trust down... The ones who have invested.. are sure to be benefitted.. 😊
Global power structures are in such a weird place right now
I know a voice when I hear one This is the same person from CNBC You don't have to say your name but your voice is unique You've done a great job and maybe you are jumping ship or you are freelancing either way It's good to hear your voice.
Never trust a man with your money who dismembers his critic's body. A big red flag there.
Never trust anything you hear on the internet, and from anywhere without evidence, frankly speaking.
MBS took the blame being on the head of the leadership under which a heinous crime was committed in a rogue operation.
MBS is a man of honor, and people abuse power in every government around the world. Saudi is no different.
To create a political tool out of a death of a person is rather insulting and offensive to family of Khashoggi, and these are the words of Khashoggi's son.
This is my personal opinion, please, attack my argument, not my person.
Regards.
@@abo3zzzam "Never trust anything you hear on the internet" its the UN and CIA who came to the conclusion not the internet.....and mate you cannot say MBS is a man of honor when you see what he has done to yemen...
@@AlAminOYT The CIA only gave speculations and absolutely no evidence.
And wit regards to Yemen, that is the reality of war. When a rouge country like Iran supports a terrorist group, and through turmoil of the "Arab spring" ,which is Obama's legacy in the middle east btw, take Over Yemen through a deal with the Ex president and place missiles on the boarders towards Saudi, and the Iceing on the Cake, Iran announcing Yemen as the "fourth Arab capital under Iranian control" Saudi is a sovereign Kingdom and has every right and trough the security council of the U.N. to defend it's self aganist an eminent threat, posed by the Houthis which chants "DEATH TO AMERICA" and pledge aligence to Iran.
Dont simplfy things, blame the houthies who Steal Saudi aid in tons and sell it in the black market.
@smokinjoe11 Sure, I agree. So? I wasn't talking about American Presidents.
@@AlAminOYT "UN and CIA who came to the conclusion" same people that said there was WMD in Iraq? yea they are good honest people... Cyber flies are so lazy
Smart move from Saudi Arabia.
Because they know very well that they can “nationalize” Aramco again in the future.
So they can just grab back all the assets
I wouldnt put my money in this company. Its too concentrated in Saudi Arabia and can easily be nationalized again.
Boom... Right on the money. People who hand over money to tyrants shouldn't expect anything in return.
Most moronic comment.
Should one buy stocks in the most profitable company in the world thats still private!! If it were an American or European company no one would be asking this question, the Saudi monarchy run amarco to make money !
well if they would do such thing i dont think they'd still own minority shares in sabic for decades
Oh..the sour grape argument ... lovely
You lost me at oil
Jones your phone is probably charged by a coal plant
Rs123 no it’s not, and I know for sure! And I only do business with financial institutions that do not invest in dirty energy.
Do you walk or bike to work?
@@UnsaltedCashew38 or drive in your Tesla?
@@ameyas7726 Only 2.1% of vehicle sales were electric in 2018. The manufacture of an electric vehicle is not green at all. Look it up.
We, the Saudis, are not even giving Wall Street a chance to participate in this IPO. So you can save your negative, one sided argument to yourself. I’m ecstatic our government opted for a local IPO. I personally have already profited from this IPO and aim to have Aramco as a major component in my stocks portfolio.
I just gained 10% from my shares watching this video.
Tomorrow will be another 10%.
ARAMCO = Saudi Arabia. As long as the country exists, ARAMCO will. The company is basically what makes the country a country. The kingdom will do whatever to keep ARAMCO alive and well.
As long as oil prices above $9, ARAMCO will profit. So we have at least a decade before major changes happen.
this equation of $9 is not practical any more bcz keeping aramco profitable is not enough to fuel country economy fuelling and keeping away from budget deficit. bcz thy r use to above 130 dollars per barrel to keep doing country spending. one small drone risk to bring aramco ipo down and to do a litmus test was done purposely as a lab test and its not posisble to again hit aramco with a drone again bzc all countries are expose to same risk any one can flew a drone to any refinery?
peace
Not an accurate statement regarding the 130$.
The average oil price for 2019 was shy of $60, yet the country functioned well and the debt is still decreasing.
@@dubailifestyle1766 it costs Aramco 2.8 $ a barrel ... we're good
Risks? Aramco IPO is a disaster.
The head of the country goes off on spending sprees, holds top business people hostage for payments and is selling off a stake so the government can keep spending money they do not have.
One suggestion
I have been following this news since quite a while
Can we all focus on WHY exactly does Aramco need an IPO ?
It generates enough free cash to feed nations
It's important to focus on the real reason behind this offer
No such thing as too much money, also there’s gonna be an oil glut soon so they’re trying to cash out while they can
Which is... to generate even more profit?
@@RC94332 well I am hoping to find out
No sir to this racket
Great reporting guys. Thanks
Betting on Aramco is essentially betting on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and that can mean different things to different people.
Yuck
Never think about your money with emotions . It can hurt you a lot .
Can't wait for it to be public so i can short it
Hahaha. Good Idea
I shorted companies that rejected me and I made over 20,000 dollars xD
Same. Also looking for a good forum/site that watches and lists future IPOs.
So the oil prices have been decreasing and the prices of petrol and diesel prices in India are still sky rocketing
Higher taxation to try and reduce the fiscal deficit.
@@ranv23011 ofc
Saudi Arabia is too politically unstable and vulnerable. When you buy the stock, you buy the nation.
@krispy kreme Tell that to the ghost of the late Mohammad Reza Pahlav, aka the Shah of Iran.
krispy kreme Saudi growth is slow and painful . Too raw for most the civilized world
@@BanBiofuels The Shah was hated by his people and Europe plotted his replacement to destabilize the region.
It's here since 300 years good night
The kingdom had been stable for 85 years. Small population and a lot of money. Not to compare with iran.
Please post these learning videos on instagram as well.
Direct wealth transfer to the Saudi Royal family is not my idea of a good investment. That is just me personally. Maybe once they have a decade of track record in playing well in the market and if they have a decent (rising) dividend...then it might be a good investment. Show me, don't sell me. Chevron/Exxon/Shell/Total are better investments in the oil patch imo.
Excellent! Why assume the extra risk of nationalization and country specific risk when other blue chip plays are available? If you absolutely have to invest in oil, invest in fully private American or EU based organizations. Not organs of the state apparatus.
@@Misterz3r0 I completely agree and couldn't have said it better myself.
Very well
Will Aramco be diversifying, or will it only be the Saudi kingdom? Once would make Aramco a excellent investment for the next century. The other would only make the prince and Saudi Arabia wealthy while it's investors are left picking up the pieces.
When exactly Aramco shares will be available to public
Next Wednesday 10:30 a.m.
If you are planning to buy Aramco shares , here is the only broker you can , my.ads-securities.com/client-portal-web/signup.html?ref=RC095914
Most profitable company until Saudi’s run out of oil.
Well if we calculate 10 million barrels per day production it would take around 80 years from now to finish the 266 billion barrels that Saudi Arabia owns in reserves.. Also Saudi is discovering more oil now in the western region.. so running out of fuel is not an issue to fear for now.. Also for the person who said renewable energy would completely replace fossil fuel in 2035 I would say not at all and it would take also around 50 or 60 years to happen.. in the video it says by 2040 the use of renewable energy would only reach 15% by best estimates I assume.. Plus.. Saudi Arabia is now building with Soft Bank the largest solar farms in the world that will produce 200 giga watts by 2030 which is crazily high..
@@Mohammedannamaja world's 60% electricity is still made from fossil fuels like coal and petroleum. So I don't think demand is big issue
The transition to renewable energy will be done by oil companies. All renewable energy businesses don’t make money or file for bankruptcy
I can't believe no investment in other profitable areas !
Rare Earth technology or even alternative energy sources like algae
1. Why wont they show their oil reserves data?
2. Why sell ANY of your mature company in a mature industry? They need cash BAD...and thats its.
I don’t quite get what’s happening in the comments section of this video. Some folks are wondering why Aramco is selling a portion of its self despite sitting on a “gold mine”. And others, such as you, are implying that the company is in desperate need for cash.
Why put it up for public sale if they are going to retain most of the ownership? Seems pointless. Paying lip service I guess
The way I see it. Oil is already done. Some people just don't realize it yet, likely because imaging drastic change can be hard. The move away from oil is only going to accelerate. The climate is already changing, the importance of this issue is only going to rise.
You better snap back to reality. Fossil energy is still the future. You have to realize that some of the "clean energy" products will still rely on the "dirty" fossil fuels. The electricity to power electric vehicles or trains will come from powerplants burning fossil fuels.
The energy potential of some renewable energies like solar and wind is variable and limited. I won't bet on them. Nuclear energy is not being taken seriously due to hysteria of powerplants going bust. Hydropower is regionalized.
Fossils are cheap, easily available, and serves its purpose though the environmental impacts of its use should be curtailed. We can't do without it for the foreseeable future I think.
@@a.gabbey5569 I am in reality. Some things are more important. Once the climate change begins displacing millions and people begin to understand the extreme changes ahead the speed to which we abandon it will only accelerate. The possibility of 2 billion displaced refugees.
Solar, wind, geothermal, hydrogen, hydro, oceanic, nuclear, and even hydrocarbons that we produce from plants we grow so they don't contribute an increase in carbon in the atmosphere.
We have so many options. None will do it alone, it'll be a combination of all. It only helps that solar is already cheaper than oil. Soon more renewables will drop as investments begin paying off.
so no body ever talks about other stated owned public companies ???
I want invest in with Aramco but They said shares available for Saudi Arabia only...not for U.S market.
Anh Hoang Yeah
THANK YOU ARAB SAUDI FOR FORCING UP THE OIL EVERYONE NOW RICH ALREADY
Wall Street journal what’s the problem?
The ties to the government nopes you out of this one
I just don't understand what do people see from an oil company? You want to invest in growing industries, like tech. How does oil companies become larger? Someone care to explain?
Now they can sell stock instead of oil
Jason S yup
Who told them Aramco just produces oil?
What would be much more interesting is if they marketed a public IPO of " the worlds biggest and best future Renewable Energy company "
Just look at how many KW you have used Watching this video …
Wind and sun And charger your battery to run your house and you Digital life🤣🤣🤣
Your best Bet is 15 % of the market if still a live in next 100 years …
Good luck everyone 🥂
What's the music in this video? I really liked the song in the 1st half.
BET ON IT, it's going to do so well.
it is, see the demand now on the share
The IPO is set to raise approx $25.6 BN against a company valuation of $1.7 TN. By simple maths they are only floating public shares representing approx 1.5% of the companies overall total value.
their oil your money
none of this stuff is happening tommorow.. Look up booster fuels , theyre crushing it in gas delivery
Synthetic materials for building things like renewable "plastics" without having to resort to fossil fuels for instance and the advancement in Fusion projects like ITER which is set to begin full scale test of their facility in 2025 may put Aramco business model out of the game way sooner than investors and Institutionals think.
Another crisis in the happening
This video would have been same if Aramco was listed in US stock market?? No company will be in profit in long run.. apple will also die soon.
few years back would have been better timing
Aramco after IPO will essentially be state-owned enterprise without the state having any risk in the enterprise. Anybody who buys shares in this is essentially giving their money to Saudi government with nothing in return beside vague promises.
WSJ is own by Amazon, Amazon need oil provider for it's shipment delivery. Aramco
You watch a lot of Mr robot
*Sherlock theme starts playing*
That compnay is already trillion dollar company so why thai company needs to go for IPO . I just want commnets on this topic
Sammy Sah more money for no physical product
Hmm
Promothash Boruah indeed, Hmm...
hey mbs im mj nice to meet you 😅
Not much value this video has
Dan Pena has another perspective on this company going public #ifyouknowyouknow
Link?
Jason S not sure of the time stamp but it was during his time on Joe Rogan
I think once gradually dropped to the market, will be a way from saudi government to gradually leave the oil to its destiny and not being involved in any development of the company. It's either the begining of the end or the begining of a new era.
Begining of the end since data is the new oil.
What % of Aramco is being offered ??? _5%_2%_ 1.5% ????
A company sells equity stakes publicly to raise capital. You have to wonder why Saudi Aramco needs to raise money. Then apply that cautious logic when deciding your exposure to the stock.
while you doing that research, i already made %20 increase in my shares and i'm asking for more shares but no one is selling his shares
WSJ is saying in other words ,dont invest in Saudi aramco because there are other american companies .Why invest in Aramco when there is an American dream that has to be fulfilled 🙂
HackLife Dude because you can get better returns on your Saudi investment
Yeah, why support the American dream when you can support the Saudi fantasy.
MisterZ3r0 no wonder ,WSJ is biased and doesn’t give true and fair view of other companies financial statements!
The beginnings of the end of the USD!
despite of all the comments here, who are the people who actually bought theIPO "secretly"?
If you are planning to buy Aramco shares , here is the only broker you can , my.ads-securities.com/client-portal-web/signup.html?ref=RC095914
For typical ordinary retail investor in US, UK, Europe then Saudi Aramco IPO is not even accessible. It has been pulled away from merchant bankers and brokers in Western Countries.
*It's an exit plan* kmt
I just love seeing Aramco‘s evaluation exceeding $2 trillion even though lots of people say it won’t even reach 1.6 trillion
for all the people who think that IPO will fail , we say as saudis it will success our vision will be real our future will be amazing while you face poverty in your stupid countries and struggle to offer the basics of life we are in our rich country live happly LooooooooooooooL
Investing ONLY on Aramco is a huge gamble and probably not a good one in the long run because of the push for cars to go electric. China and other European countries already made it mandatory to go all electric by like 2025 so the price of oil will oil go down in the future. The days of these oil rich companies are numbered, they better begin thinking ahead to diversify their country. Many of these Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran etc I don't see tourism being the next big thing either. At least the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have already been established but many will be in trouble.
Oil is the new Coal and Electric is the new Oil. They want investors to buy oil company shares so they can invest in renewables. Looks like a great investment ;)
Iran did confesse about the bombings btw
🤔Hmmmm. My guess, oil is about to be in decline in the near future.
Blew up in Saudi blew up in Texas
You did not answer the main question!!!
not enough meat on the bone for investors & that country is corrupt and vulnerable high risk for such a small reward.
Though the dividends may payoff . It highly unlikely that Aramco can sustain the profits it declares. There are too many outside factors depicted in the video that prevents it from being a lucrative IPO.
How much oil is there and how costly will it be to extract? Factor in the fact the Saudis have been able to secure its “money maker”, relationships with neighboring countries have degraded and the Saudi royals are not popular with folks in their region. All of this is a negative driving force.
If the company claims to be profitable then what is need to go public? The company is better off being private. The question is why go public if Aramco is claim to generate more revenue then Apple and Google? As almost as if it’s not enough ... greed wears ugly hat on this one.
New breed of Billionaire is coming post this IPO.
Ankush Suryavanshi yup
More like new breed of ripped off people.
A typical long term investing cycle e.g 20-25 years. Try to picture where Oil will be in 2045. It will be relatively lesser important, as renewable energy like solar, wind, wave, hydro (and nuclear) will be more important.
chooselife3000 2045 sounds to soon for oil to be “relatively lesser important”. Especially when considering how unreliable renewables are as a primary energy source. Besides, if the eventual transition to renewable energy happens, oil companies such as Aramco and Shell would be the first ones to gradually do so.
@@Cergun_ thanks mate. Good words. I would have maybe liked to buy into Aramco, but very difficult as a retail investor as it's only listed on their local exchange. I have a fancy for Gazprom myself. I did buy a small Russian petro company recently. Yes all the big oils cos must have a lot of renewables R&D. The biggest investors in the offshore wind farms around UK are the big oils cos.
It's only any good if you could buy in for "cheap".
3:58 Masayoshi Son
Yup!!
All the Softbank invest spree money largely came from Saudi and UAE,
thats why Softbank got nothing to lose bcz it backs by oil money,
They want to control the future of world startup.. They got trillion to invest
Good Investments and Slot Machines...what the heck are they smoking at Wall Street Journal?
In my opinion no. But then again I am focused on hard asset real estate.
Even if i had billions I wouldn’t invest a dime
Why
Maybe thats why you don't!
@@Jes.V3 exactly
@RAHUL GANDHI Saudi Aramco is not even listing 1.5 percent % and you're saying half?
That's why you dont have billions 💁♂️
I want the profit!
2018 profit
assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iSuXYNYfjsqg/v0/-1x-1.png
The explanation is worth AU$0.02. What happened to the great WSJ?!
@johan alejandro Point taken, sorry for trolling..relaxed
The Aramco IPO makes absolutely no sense, the amount it will raise will barely cover the cost of its IPO. The only logical reason appears to be the Saudi prince wanting a Saudi company to hold the record of largest IPO.
The real problem of the IPO is the Saudi govt arm twisting rich Saudis into investing and telling citizens that buying shares in the company is a patriotic duty, banks have been ordered to relax lending rules for anyone borrowing money to invest, what happens in a few years if Aramco shares do not rise or even drop in value and the dividend payments cannot cover the interest on the money borrowed?
Here in 2020 chinese corona pandemic.
Aramco will be the biggest blunder...
"15% renewable energy by 2040".. Someone is thinking very linearly. Everyday experience doesn't give us practice in exponential thinking.
They're gonna lobby hard to keep that number low. But if they're right the planet is f*****.
No that much risks don’t miss the IPO
Meh you guys kinda painted it as shady which isn't true tbh they do have security & symbloic & sovereignty concerns that justify them keeping a majority share holder, the country isn't open but its opening personally i bought some share because they were open to non saudi aswell regretting not buying more 😢
I'll put money in.