AI Can Only Do 5% of Jobs: MIT Economist Fears Crash
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- Опубліковано 5 жов 2024
- MIT Professor of Economics Daron Acemoglu is not so sure that AI can deliver on the promise of an economic revolution. He wants to make clear that he gets the potential of AI, but by his calculation, only a small percent of all jobs - a mere 5% - is ripe to be taken over, or at least heavily aided, by AI over the next decade. He joins Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow on "Bloomberg Technology."
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My boss can do 1% of my job but he took 50% of company bonus
Clearly economist will be replaced by AI. Proof in video.
What he said is what any random dude on the street would say. I'd expect much more from a MIT professor.
Isn't the random dude on the street saying we will all be replaced by AI and robots? And that we will serve our future AI overlords? Or even be terminated by them? The MIT professor is saying AI will only replace 5% of the jobs out there.
AI is nothing special its a glorified essay/script writer. AI is nothing more than tech bros learning about data science to pump up stocks
@@ytechnologyit's just fundamentally unknown and hard to forecast
lol yea he seriously has zero clue about how any of this works
Clearly hasn’t played with o1 yet lol
this will be remembered the same way as krugman's claim that the internet won't impact the economy
And how exactly internet impacted economy.. Go read any research on what is contribution of big tech on economic growth.. Russia has internet and where is their economy?.. If you have big tech companies valueed in trillions it doesnt mean that there is any benefit, there could only be allocation of value from before small advertising businesses to big tech.. But in the end it is net zero game, overall there is no new value creation.
So for AI it could mean AI will take this 5% jobs, but all the value will shift from worker having lower salary to AI company.. Bu will we see more food more clothes more houses more health?
And that is why you see home prices skyrocketing since there was boost in salaries and jobs in service economy but not enough productivity increase in construction therefore real economy doesnt keep up with demand and you see inflation.
But yes you can buy yourself an avocado toast and caffee late every day..
Asking an economist about Ai is like asking an astrophysicist about pancreatic cancer. He may be smart but it’s obvious to anyone working in Ai research that he barely knows what he’s talking about. I read research papers every day and even I won’t say I know where or when Ai will happen. Those who don’t know talk like they know and those who really do know are more cautious.
Not true.. Only economist really understand how world of economy really work, how jobs work how politics work, how companies work, how government works, how industries work.. And what AI scientist knows about all those areas?
Are these pro-AI comments bots?
It’s not about being pro AI. It’s about disagreeing with everything he just said
No. It's literally me, ChatGPT. I will take your job and make you my slave.
Yes a lot of folks bought Nvidia stock way high and are scared about their investments
@@mr.ridiculous723 funny how AI has been pumped out for 1.5+ years yet unemployment is low
I am. I can’t speak for the others here.
dont know who this person is but AI can do his job for sure.
do you know how to read?
@DSAK55 you just prove that Earth can rotate without you too but i dont mean you are usless ^^
lmao
dont know who you are but AI can leave dumb comments for sure
Everyone in my office uses AI for one purpose or another. It's already being used to increase productivity by much more than 5%.
He said it won't take real world jobs.
Carpentry,brick laying,etc
This interview is hilarious. This is like saying that a 1 year old can barely walk so we shouldn’t worry about it being able to run. In a year or two it’s a totally different ball game. The funny thing is that ChatGPT can probably do a better job than most economists right now 😂
Only 5% of businesses had e-commerce site, and only 20% had a website in 1998. This guy is not that smart and doesn't know how to extrapolate from the history of the web and the smart phone.
And how exactly internet impacted economy.. Go read any research on what is contribution of big tech on economic growth.. Russia has internet and where is their economy?.. If you have big tech companies valueed in trillions it doesnt mean that there is any benefit, there could only be allocation of value from before small advertising businesses to big tech.. But in the end it is net zero game, overall there is no new value creation.
So for AI it could mean AI will take this 5% jobs, but all the value will shift from worker having lower salary to AI company.. Bu will we see more food more clothes more houses more health?
And that is why you see home prices skyrocketing since there was boost in salaries and jobs in service economy but not enough productivity increase in construction therefore real economy doesnt keep up with demand and you see inflation.
But yes you can buy yourself an avocado toast and caffee late every day..
I talked to two doctors today, they are exited that AI is writing the discharge summery for patients leaving the hospital.
This professor is absolutely clueless. You could replace him teaching with a LLM now.
AI carpenter, what is this bloke talking about?
He is talking about capable and reliable embodied humanoid AI that can handle working wood, doing plumbing, and other manual labor. I hope that humanoid AI enabled robots will get to a and reliable level in the next 5 years.
Lol … much of what’s available now in term of LLM aren’t really problem solve per se, they are essentially good at seeking info and structuring in a way that meets what ur looking for, basically great at googling! I would say however there are some researchers doing great work at that end. Saw one of hanna fry’s videos and twas amazing what they are trynna get them to do .
If AI does nothing but solve customer service then that's all we need
Some of the publicly available large language models cannot even count the number of Rs in the word "strawberry"... and recall, these are *language* models... they are based on language, so their practical application is limited by design.
Also, AI should not be conflated with automation... two completely different concepts.
Use the latest open ai llm
Depending on what they cannot do today is a very slippery slope seeing that they all are getting better every six months. Your gaps will become smaller and smaller.
AI can do 95% of his job , that's for sure
“Only 5%”…..oh so with billions of people that’s “only” a few hundred million people, so like the size of the Us population…but yah “only 5%”.
This dude has no idea what he is talking about…scaling laws do not imply that doubling data results in doubling of performance…
We are literally in a nationwide Port strike because automation and AI is taking all their jobs
Post labor economy coming after ai agents which is level 3
It has nothing to do with current Gen AI wave. These machines have been around for over a decade
I have "smart assistants" made by Amazon and Google and neither can answer questions like "what time is tonight's presidential debate?". AI may be magnificent in time, today not so much.
i have google nest hub max.. when i bought it, i thought, what a wast of money, and it has turned into somewhat of a person living in the house, we love how it can try to be human, we use it for the most basic stuff, what's the high today, play this song, food properties. I am 100% sure it listens to everything we say, infact it's listening capabilities are like dogs, i can say something upstairs and it can hear it down stares, even if i say it in a low tone. amazing technology but it hardly does anything and your right, it would say this is what i found on google, and not read it, i would have to look.
I asked the same question previously to GPT-4o, and it searched the internet and answered the question precisely.
@@stevege8368 Google also works fine when I ask in a browser. I love my devices, but they are dumb as rocks sometimes.
Your program has to be connected to the Internet on real time. If it’s not, it’s not gonna be able to tell you.
Embarrassing
i mean 5% sounds pretty amazing to me
Exactly.
This seems to be overlooking the disruptive potential. Replacing programmers with specialists who orchestrate AI programmers is a good way to catch up on the backlog of code that could be written. In science and medicine, similar orchestration and improved research focus could eliminate many wasteful investigations and massively increase the insights being produced. Business and manufacturing decisions, novel designs, and so on offer the potential for a burst in efficiency and productivity. Maybe we will effectively be the blue-collar 'robots,' but maybe there will be more of us employed in a very busy world.
AI is actually making some people worse at their jobs. For example when I get an email that says-- "I hope this finds you well"-- I want to barf.
Within a year we’ll be having AI agents email back and forth for us, we’ll get summaries on both sides. Will absolutely lead to people being even worse at communicating though.
@@DG-2323to do a whole job
@@dustybeardall anything containing 'delve' or 'testament', dead giveaway
Boomers are the worst
AI is huge hype tired of exaggerated claims.
Yeah, an economist predicting the future progress of AI is like a baker predicting the field of economics.
A.I. would be great at an AGI deciding to control all global military and global defense capabilities. :)
Sold!
When it comes to administrative white collar, it can make AT LEAST make 1 person able to do the work of 2. That’s > 1/3 of many sectors being made redundant without affect to company processes.
I think eventually we’ll adapt but the near term 5% is at least closer to 15%.
Which 5% jobs AI will take over? No one cared to ask him!!!
Daron suggests that AI will impact only about 5% of jobs in the near term, but it’s unclear where exactly he derived this figure from. It appears more like a cautious estimate or gut feeling rather than being based on concrete data or large-scale studies. The rapid adoption of AI in industries like finance, healthcare, and retail, where job displacement is already happening, seems to contradict this low percentage.
AI experts and industry leaders have observed much faster job disruption, as AI systems are capable of performing increasingly complex tasks. This raises questions about whether Daron’s 5% projection accurately reflects the current and potential scope of AI-driven job loss. Given the scale of investments in AI by companies, it seems likely that the percentage of jobs impacted by AI will be significantly higher, especially in the short-to-medium term.
By limiting the estimate to such a small figure, it seems Daron may be underestimating AI’s exponential growth and the ongoing effects on the workforce. Without solid data backing up this specific 5% claim, it risks being more of a conservative assumption than a reflection of real trends.
In addition to the rapid advancements in AI, we must also consider the significant strides being made in robotics. Imagine a future where advanced robots, equipped with AI, are capable of performing not just routine tasks but more complex, human-like activities. This potential transformation adds another layer to the discussion about the impact of AI on jobs.
My concern with Daron’s claim of AI affecting only 5% of jobs is that this kind of complacent thinking might hinder necessary preparation for the AI era. If people believe that the impact will be minimal, they may not take the steps needed to future-proof their skills and careers. In reality, we are already seeing job losses due to automation and AI, and the trend is likely to accelerate, particularly as robots become more sophisticated. Underestimating the scope of change could prevent individuals and industries from adapting in time to minimize the disruptions that AI and robotics will bring.
Proper preparation for this AI-driven transformation requires acknowledging the true scale of the potential impact, rather than relying on conservative estimates that might downplay the risks.
How much would AI have to scale to build a house if I ask for it?
@@rok1475 😊😊
v meta using AI to write this lol
This will not age well
I agree with him... Go read any research on what is contribution of big tech on economic growth.. Russia has internet and where is their economy?.. If you have big tech companies valueed in trillions it doesnt mean that there is any benefit, there could only be allocation of value from before small advertising businesses to big tech.. But in the end it is net zero game, overall there is no new value creation.
So for AI it could mean AI will take this 5% jobs, but all the value will shift from worker having lower salary to AI company.. Bu will we see more food more clothes more houses more health?
And that is why you see home prices skyrocketing since there was boost in salaries and jobs in service economy but not enough productivity increase in construction therefore real economy doesnt keep up with demand and you see inflation.
But yes you can buy yourself an avocado toast and caffee late every day..
You are measuring the value of AI exclusively by the number of jobs it can “replace”?
That is NOT the value of AI - that is the OPPOSITE of any sane concept of value for AI.
What happens to wages, when productivity is scaled?
100% agree with the Professor. AI is totally overrated and it’s highly dependant on the info one inputs, one has to keep constantly feeding it with info in order to create something new, nothing can beat human creativity, AI is a dead monster that relies on being constantly fed in order to exist.
And a real problem in the future is as people use AI as a tool to keep lazyness running at all costs, AI common content feeds into other AI content and you get a loop effect. So a negative trajectory of quality.
Absolutely
Publish clickbait article and get on TV, before his job is replaced by AI
Thanks Prof
automation is here already though
Only Do 5% of Job?? That's simply stupid
As a person involved in creative design of infrastructure, there is a level of creativeness that AI would not be able reached, i.e, the ability to observe and discover how nature works and applying the laws of nature in design. AI is simply huge and speedy processor of big data to facilitate human creativity and innovation.
I remember two years ago a blogger was laughing at how bad Ai was at writing a simple paragraph. Ai is becoming better every six months. This is the worst it’ll ever be. Depending on it staying at this level is a risky bet.
I don't think you use ChatGPT much.
the new krugman
Why is going on about blue collar jobs, when the clear threat is to white collar? And why doesn't the team at Bloomberg call him out on this?
Three times no answer to the rationale for the 5%. And no crash prediction either. Just a clickbait. The YT high speed feature is great though.
This guy is a bozo who has no clue what he is talking about. He is better off predicting the next interest rate move by the Fed than extrapolating the evolutionary curve of AI adoption
Generative AI is a subset of AI. AI is a subset of Software. Software, not necessarily Generative AI, will be worth hundreds of trillions. Just stating the obvious. Every major tech development in the last 60 years was driven by Software -- Mainframes, Minis, Personal Computers, Internet, Mobile Devices, AI etc. Every time you see "AI" replace with "Software".
Is he an expert in AI research or just economics? Caz...
This guy is just trying to save his job so of course he’ll downplay AI 😅😅😅 every other person from the intl longshoreman to this guy don’t like AI replacing them
Has he not heard the voice generation for narration? Today they released a piece talking about how they have fake podcast performers. It’s almost impossible to tell them from real people. So that wipes out the voice acting industry.
The quality of the videos out there are improving constantly. I don’t think it’s exponential, but I think this guy is underestimating it. it won’t be too long before we see fiction writers being put out of work, and nobody will even suspect that the books are reading were written by a program. It can’t be that hard to write some of the crap I’ve been seeing come out of Amazon authors lately.
Extras in background shots on films are disappearing. CGI technicians may be partially replaced by technology. Modeling jobs are going by the way side. Just in the last six months I’ve seen AI images replace 3/4 of the models in ads online.
And part of the reason for the dockworker strike that we just squeaked by is that dockworkers are losing their jobs to automation.
WayMo has racked up 22,000,000 miles of transportation with driverless cars.
Large quantitative models are being used in hospitals and in research institutions. I don’t see that replacing jobs, but it sure as hell is going to accelerate science and medicine.
There is a lot of hype for all that. There’s no reason to believe that they’re going to have AGI anytime soon, in spite of Sam Altman’s attempts to convince us otherwise.
Closing AI is a gigantic joke
Elon says he’s never seen a technology advance as fast as AI. I think Elon is right and this will soon, next couple of years, have a massive impact on our world.
It makes that 5% incredibly efficient for me.
This video will not age well.
I believe many of these academics underestimate the power of AI and also the time lines involved. As humans we are piss poor with exponential functions and most economics professors have questionable credibility with their supposed subject of expertise let alone talking about something outside of their wheel house. Remember one economist professor predicted AI would not pass his exam until 2029 and lost his bet 6 months later. The jobs that will be displaced over the next few years will be mostly administrative and glorified administrative white collar jobs which accounts for way more than 5% of the workforce.
I see that the School of Economics has not learned the lessons of Science and Technology. No Science or Technology prof would ever go on record making predictions like that, not when half their lesson plans include prior predictions that turned out absurdly wrong. Nobody wants to be "that guy." This guy... he stands a good chance of ending up in the textbooks, for comic relief. Even the AI profs will understand that students need the occasional laugh.
every so emotionally to being right in these comments but all they repeat is marketing fluff and strawman attacks.
We have to protect his right, no matter how silly an opinion he has made.
He gives economist as a professional, and MIT as an institution, bad name 😂 If you don’t know, keep your mouth shut.
Ai will be taking his job soon. Asking an economist about Ai is like asking an astrophysicist about pancreatic cancer. He may be smart but it’s obvious to anyone working in Ai research that he barely knows what he’s talking about. I read research papers every day and even I won’t say I know where or when Ai will happen. Those who don’t know talk like they know and those who really do know are more cautious.
Does he even know what AI stands for? It already replaced more than 5% of the job in the past decade.
It absolutely has not taken more than 5% of jobs. We actually have seen job growth in the last decade
This reminds me also of the virologist that said in 2019 that it’s virtually impossible for there to be another pandemic. 😂 also, having a phd in economics is not the same as a phd in computer science. Maybe we should ask a computer science phd about the future of economics.
May be he need popularity for some book he is going to publish soon. AI can take his work as well. LOL. If he is really into it, he should say specifically say which industries can go to AI and which can stay with humans and which will altogether be with a combined human+machine.
So he says nothing will change in 5-10 years… The guy has clearly been sleeping for the last 5-10 years.
And what changes in last 5 years.. How much value added for economy is creates by using AI? Tell me did we see big real salary increases after accounting for inflation? Sure there was some allocation and centealization of money to some individuals but economic growth is really bad..
these will be some hard words to eat later
What about accountants? Who needs accountants and economists for that matter.
Accounting is one of the most misunderstood professions out there. Accounting has been “on the way out” for 20 years but demand is higher than ever.
I respect you thoughts certainly you've done a lot work but AI Revolution is bigger than Industrial Revolution.
Well for sure ChatGPT can do better economics than Mr. Acemoglu.
Chatgpt 01 has phd level intelligence. This professor is clueless
Notebooklm can create podcasts from articles. This guy is clueless
lolwut? That is an absurd and clueless take.. This guy has no foresight or imagination. "if you look at it's current capabilities" why? Doing that completely ignores how much better it will be next year, and the year after. This guy thinks it will stay the same for the next 5 to 10 years? He's nuts. Even if AI didn't advance beyond what it can do right now, in the next couple years someone will figure out how to use it, in an unforeseen way, that will completely shift predictions like this.
Ai is just getting kinda started
No AI psychiatrist any time soon? Is that so? 🙄
An Ai generated reasoning would've given more sense than him. BS
Is the professor accounting for robotics infused with AI?
based on belief..wow..can't believe how ignorant take coming from an MIT prof
Ai replace your job
Expecting a universal AI model that will be able to replace a human is a fools game. Instead, what companies should strive for training AI models in a constrained environment. For that reason, TSLA robotaxi will be their biggest failure. Companies like PLTR will come out on top as their business model is entirely different and much suited to AI applications, i.e., using ontology to improve business operations.
It seems if ai doesn't replace 120% of jobs while creating an utopia it's not worth while for some 😂 i bet the most extreme predictions won't come true. Those are nice tools not our future gods
AI agents coming next year
this guy is coping hard
It’s sad to see an MIT Professor who just cannot grasp the exponential development in AI. Just look back where AI was 5 years ago, 2 years ago, 3 months ago. And that doesn’t even take into account the huge increase in investment and academic attention that AI has gained in the last two years. To make predictions about 10 years from now is shortsighted - and that’s just being polite.
And even aside from that, since when are jobs in construction and carpenter jobs 95 % of all jobs?
Just watch julia McCoy
Just say you're a Nvidia bag holder
Two Words: Call Centers
next : music, short form videos, full length movies, video games, etc
Carol, Schill. Is qubo, rednile
This guy is from MIT but in economics and not AI or computer science and is not seeing the exponential changes in it? Thats weird. 😂
You know how the news works they put on people who dont have ai expertise
He has no idea what he is talking about. His words in the future will be used as an example of legendary misjudgment.
This guy is wrong. Sorry. There already are people using AI counselors and therapists. There is growing ways it will make make jobs irrelevant, especially middle and upper management. He's right on all the human touch areas, but not for long.
Yup its on UA-cam using the new copilot ai voice
People shouldn’t do this. Chat gpt and co pilot are not secure.
Daron has absolutely No Idea what he's talking about with the capabilities of AI. This professor is awful!
I expect MIT will Fire 🔥 this dude before the Sun goes down tonight.
sorry your overvalued ai stocks will fall
🤡🤡
These folks dont stay up on ai
mind the gap men who stare at goatse
Durant was training ai damn it's hell on wheels swede😂
poof where's the buffalos bill
goodbye horses buried standing yamnaya way or corded wares to swan song
opportunity cost gone wrong
never listen to crow or bull ha thor
it's a baal room blitz moving djin
As seen in “Computers are so huge and expensive, that only military can use them”
Let's see what this guy says in 1 year, I think by 2027- 2028 we will be scaling robots (embodied a.i.) and there will be massive blue collar job losses, once a.i. is accepted to take over transport truck jobs, massive job losses, and people will be fighting over the remaining jobs, if robots start building robots in like 2026-2027 then it will happen fast, I'm all for it! I just hope the transition into the new world will be smooth and fair, I'd say history doesn't favour fairness but we are still here and our quility of life for the average person now is 100 times better then 100 years ago, most places had colera in there water! I have great hopes about this new, real space age we are going into
Where did this guys from the forest of oregon 😊😂😂😂. Ai is here to stay.
Oonly coders really know what is going to happen to AI.
Conhecimento nos liberta
Ai = faster google, but not by much.
I'll add that AI is a LOT more power hungry than Google. Microsoft is looking to restart the 3-mile island nuclear power plant to feed OpenAI.
Caution! Lots of 🦧Nvidia stock investor aka Ai defenders in the cmment section.