UNSTOPPABLE HOUSING MARKET CRASH with Peter Schiff
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- Опубліковано 12 вер 2024
- This housing market crash may be worse than The Great Depression. @peterschiff talks about the dire state of the U.S. economy, and how the Federal Government created a massive housing market bubble they can't fix.
#peterschiff #housingmarket #realestatenews
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Thanks Todd for a great interview. Come visit us in Puerto Rico any time or in Connecticut during the summers.
Thanks Peter! Happy thanksgiving to you and your family. Let’s do it again soon.
@@SachsRealty 32:54 😮
Peter, you look tired here. Your house looks beautiful. Get some rest, tho. :)
Schiffs gold fund is a loser. Look it up. EPGFX.
Peter, thanks for your straight talking deep dives into the current financial reality, sorely needed info that few can provide. You're doing a great service for all who will listen. Like the Blues Brothers, you're on a mission from God!
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree, It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
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I am a homebuilder. I agree that the federal government has been manipulating the market. With the mortgage, deduction and artificially keeping interest rates low for a long time as well as backing mortgage securities. As far as the cost of houses goes, I can talk to you about new houses. They are a function of supply and demand just like existing houses, but they are also a function of the cost of construction. The cost of construction has gone up radically in the last five or six years. That’s why I don’t believe a word. The government says about the rate of inflation because it’s been so high in our industry. So if there’s demand for housing, but the only housing that can be created is too expensive for people then we need to build smaller or modest product. A lot of times we have government zoning issues that stop that from happening. One other thing, much of the cost of housing, going up, was due to inflation that is directly related to overspending by the federal government. An example being the Covid. Where they borrowed $6 trillion and then basically gave everybody a check. So when you throw $6 billion into the economy without any increase in the availability of goods and services, of course when you get an inflation. All the federal government has been doing for decades is the basing our currency. They have also increased regulation, that makes home building more expensive. They terrorize construction sites with Osha. The fines that Osha gives Builders for minor in fractions can be tens of thousands of dollars.
There are a lot of issues to solve housing.
Why don't builders construct modest homes anymore? Why is everything a McMansion? Large families aren't the norm these days.
The area you build in makes a difference. There are plenty of modest homes built around where I am, however these modest homes take a lot more money to build today. Builders struggle with keeping the prices in line with what people can afford. Everything from insurance, interest rates, material costs, regulations, and labor has gone bonkers. People tend to blame builders for the prices going up, but their bottom line is not any different than it always has been. People who want to move up are standing on the sidelines because they don’t want to surrender their low interest rates they probably have now. This created a housing shortage for these modest priced homes. It’s like everything is a backed up sewer. The ones wanting to move up, aren’t doing it, and ones wanting to get into one of these, can’t find one.
I live in Coastal NC which is in very high demand. There is no affordable housing. National builders, DR Horton are building ordinary homes with very high price tags. A square box with 1800-2200 sq ft runs anywhere from 450k to well over 550k. The communities are highly undesirable and looks like post WWII housing with far less quality. It is very sad.
You're a home builder.
Not a financial engineer.
The finance guys are the ones who fucked everything.
Today's houses - expensive beyond belief and the shoddiest construction imagineable.
It is difficult to comprehend how we are in this position with all the advancements of society. Greed will doom us all.
naivety will
I think most of us would vote against real solutions. For example, forcing 1/2 of all housing to be for middle income folks, non-home owners who have lived in the city for at least 3 years, and one member works in that city to qualify. But it sounds Liberal, Socialist, Communist...whatever you want to call it to kill it. It will be killed. The free market will rule. Then, you have corporations snapping up all good housing sometimes, investors, rich folks (me) that now own 4 or more properties etc.. Not fair, but you can't argue with the law.
You mean government greed. That is the only greed I see these days, high inflation, high food prices, gas prices, living expenses, all comes from government greed. Basically spending your money like drunken sailors which is the only cause of inflation. Get your facts straight
It's not necessarily greed. It's government involvement hindering the free market.
>greed
lol. Wrong. Banks wouldn’t be so excited to distribute garbage loans if the government wasn’t promising to bail them out.
I'm a 26 year old man that has been trying to save up to buy for 5 years Here in Southern UT (a lot of people moved in during covid). I'm still nowhere close and am watching it continue to spiraling. Nobody I know can afford a house either something has got to give
Exactly. There's hope for some of us !!!!!!!
Being older (pushing 60 this year) let me give you some hope... I started working FT in 1985, and almost immediately began eyeing house prices (while trying to save for down payment)... Sights low of course, basic starter home (not a condo) of say 1200-1600sqft (2-3br) on 0.5-1ac. But prices started skyrocketing in 86 to the point those homes almost doubled in price in a few years (80-90% increase), so I rapidly was losing hope... But then in '88 we had the post-S&L crash and prices dropped after - I finally bought in 1991, still say 45% higher than in '85 but near the bottom (I saw similar homes sell for maybe $5k less a few months later, but within say 18 months prices were slowly increasing again,no regrets as i got in an excellent location).
By 2007 i was laughing at what Zillow said my home was "worth", more than doubled from what I paid for what was effectively a "starter home" (built 1960s), but listening to Peter and others, and doing my own digging, in late 2007 I moved 80% of my 401k to bonds - maybe lost some gains but when other complained in late 2008 that they'd lost 60% of theirs my 401k lost maybe 10%. I advised several people I knew looking to buy to wait 18months - # who listened? Zero. # who didn't wind up underwater on their mortgages? One - he bought a foreclosure that needed a lot of work and put a lot of "sweat equity" in to even make it livable. That Zillow "value" of my home? Yeah, it dropped like 35%+ ... I was never losing vs what I paid, but even if it did I figured it was a place to live more than an investment.
What I (and Peter) didn't expect was the amount of Fed intervention - I was fully expecting to maybe see my house even drop to near my 1991 cost (less chance of losing value, but as I said - still a good place to live)... And I would expect similar intervention in an upcoming crash, but I'd still expect prices to fall.
That being said, in 1991 my rate was 8-7/8% initially... I refinanced a few years later to cut that, but it was a definite change of lifestyle - no fancy vacations (outside trips to family for holidays) for a good decade, no "toys" (struggled to afford a new car in '95 when my old one was dying), even going out with friends on a friday night after work for a few drinks was rare, and i had lawn to mow and other things to do on weekends. Unless they change tax rules don't worry so much about interest rate, in fact my thinking is higher rates might help push prices down - but it's deductable, and I invested virtually all my tax refund yearly back into the mortgage principal (don't treat it as a "bonus" to splurge on a vacation or something frivolous).
Anyways, you will encounter a time when you'll know it's time to buy. It'll still be tough to afford, but nobody said life would be easy, and it'll get you on the ladder as hopefully your career prospects improve.
Please go read my post on Gold Standard. This will open your eyes on the truth. The Republicans blame everything on the democrats. In reality the Republicans were the ones that did away with the gold standard.
In 1933 FDR signed into law that Americans could not buy gold, but foreign countries could.
In 1965 the US government took us off the Silver standard. I remember the Silver Certificates with paper money. We had to exchange those for regular paper money.
In 1971 Nixon (Republican) took us off the gold standard.
Please read my post. I didn't make it up. It is facts.
It's in all parts of the country!!
Educate yourself on their game .
Awesome inteview. So true 7% is not hight but when a house used to worth 400k and now 800k no one can qualify or afford it. Horrible situation.
@@true-nw3nh Prices are set by supply and demand. Clearly there are buyers who are willing to pay $800k for a house that was previously worth $400k. This statement that housing prices are "unaffordable" is simply not supported by the data.
Great interview. So true. In Canada as a senior, I've seen everything that has happened since the 60's. My parents bought a house in the 1950's for $5000. I bought my first house in the 1970's for $35,000. The 7 acre farm I now own is worth almost 30 times what I paid for it in the 1980's. I built a second house on it with a 2 bedroom basement suite and the original house that I renovated in 1987, is now dated looking, needing another reno. My son lives here with his pregnant girlfriend in a 40' trailer, and my daughter-in-law lives in the original house with my two grandchildren. So glad that my mortgage is paid off because I couldn't afford the payments plus the taxes, and those are more than 6 times what they were when I bought. The taxes are now more per month than my mortgage payments were. Everything Peter said is true and scary for those that want to get into the housing market.
Yeah, the real estate numbers I see coming out of Canada seem insane.
We considered moving to Canada for a job but the 20% added to buying a house for non-residents made us reconsider. The housing costs are already so high, and then add on 20%.💆🏻♀️ We just can’t do it. The Canadian immigration system seems to benefit the very wealthy or very poor. We have retirement savings that could cover the 20% but we’d have to work so many more years to make it up. Love Canada.
Or out
Who wants to live in a basement?
Always fight the property assessment also. Unless your selling soon.
From where I set I can see property taxes being a big issue. As a retiree I’m wondering if I can keep my home because of out of control taxes.
Very good point!
Yes, I agree. Property taxes are a huge problem, and they keep going up.
Good to be a beaurcrat with taxpayer supported pensions.
You never own a house you just rent it from the federal, state, county, and local government all of them decide how much extortion money you will pay to get to stay in that house. And home owners insurance has just about doubled every two years where I live and none of those government offices bother to control that problem.
@@sandikobilansky8766 that is why ism selling my home tax and HOA. Nice safe hood but not for someone with no pension but I have to pay for others. Kinda jacked up
I bought a house at the end of 2008 in Florida. The builder was paid $265,000 to build it. It was never lived in was well built and it was supposed to be a flip but the bottom of the value of this house dropped the price drastically because there were thousands of foreclosures in FL . I bought it for $83,000 and it had all appliances. I paid cash. I also owned a home in NJ . I sold that in 2016. It was in a Beach town and I made a killing. I am now full-time in my Florida home. If the prices drop go find a home at a very low cost. It's the only way to beat inflation and bad times. In New Jersey prices did not drop but Florida took a big hit.
80k for a truck... That was a home in the 80s
Also in the 90s
@@nicolemiller8314 some places still today I guess... They just have wheels and are kinda tiny lol!
That was a home in 2015 in some places
My parents, bought their home in 1985 in Southern California for $74,000. Houses in the are going for $700,000. To qualify for a $700,000 you need to make $200,000+ a year if you have a 20% down payment.
It’s a simple economic factor-. It’s called DEMAND - PULL
I just bought a new house that is very conservative after recovering from a divorce in 2010. I couldn't get an existing home in my price range due to cash purchases and counter offers. I didn't play the game .I put $100000 dollars down and the builder gave me $10000 credit to pay closing costs and buy the rate down. I was homeless since 2018 ,working saving , getting out of debt and getting my credit score up. My payment is low.I still have savings and can still save money but the property taxes are high. I wanted a roof over my head. My job in the food supply chain should be ok because people still need to eat .Thanks to both of you for the video and info.
Me trying to figure out how you were able to save $100,000🤦🏽♀️🤣❤
@theresajohnson981 It wasn't easy. Self discipline with minimal consumption. I have a lot of bills now buying the house. Energy costs are high and I got a notice in the mail property taxes going up. Thankful I have a home though. Managing to continue saving some money .Still need to remain frugal.
I remember my grandfather, who was a general contractor, telling me about the housing crash of 1926 and how he was unable to work in his field until the housing boom started in 1946...
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc You don't find anything at all interesting in a 20 year decline in activity in an important sector of the economy? Why do you even bother watching such channels as this?
@@davisutton1 And how long did it take the stock market to recover? Decades.....
My grandparents had paid for boarding houses in NYC when the Great Depression came. For the time, they did very well financially as they had a steady income from cheap boarding rooms. They ended up with problems when NYC imposed rent controls. They sold the boarding houses and moved out NYC.
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gcchange your handle to bitter and crotchety 😂
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc what a dumbass ignorant comment. You study history and what happened in the past to draw correlations to the present and future.
Great podcast. Peter saved me from the 2008 GFC. I am forever grateful for all the great nights of sleep ever since. God bless
In atlanta you could tell people were going down by two signs. Blue tarps on the roof and garage doors that do not get fixed.
Great interview. So many factors at play. This is an impending financial superstorm. Commercial real estate collapse, uninsurable housing, housing bubble, inflation and huge debts. How long can this can be kicked down the road?
I've been listening to Schiff for 14 years he's been saying the same thing. As long as the dollar remains the reserve currency we will be fine because we'll just print our way out and devalue the dollar. If we loose the reserve currency status were screwed. If Trump gets in they will make it really hard for him, another pandemic, market crash, race wars, etc. If dems remain in control we will see massive inflation, and foreign wars but no pandemic. Either way the US will not be allowed to get its finances in order.
A few more weeks at the least and 1 year at most
end of the road
Hi Todd I invested in multi-family real estate in Wichita, Kansas from 2010 to 2015 and I'm a huge fan of your channel. This interview with Peter Schiff was one of your best yet. Congratulations! I said exactly the same thing you did when Peter gave that explanation at the 38 minute mark. Brilliant!
Hi Todd. I’m also a RE investor in Wichita. Do you still own property here or did you sell?
@@tracydewitt6616 no
My Las Vegas mortgage is at 2.75% for the next 28 years. Total including taxes and insurance is $912 a month. I will NEVER sell. Home has nearly doubled in value since 2019 and still slowly rising. I have a high rate CD at 5.25%. I'm being paid to live in my own house.
THIS!! Not sure how these so called ''experts'' thinks the market crash if there is no inventory
It’s interesting language to use the word “NEVER”. How can you accurately predict what your happenstance will be 1, 2, 5, 10 years from now? How can one accurately forecast what the world will be like? Except for Peter… or course. Haha
Defaults
@@nicolemiller8314 ones that cant afford their mortgage can rent it out and still have some cash flow after their monthly mortgage is paid since they are sitting on very low rates
What does money in CD have to do with your investments
Nice interview. However, at the 42.39 mark, Mr. Schiff made a mathematical error saying that a $200,000 house would require 1,000 ounces of gold priced at $2,000 per ounce. Actually, it would only take 100 ounces of gold in his scenario. All in all, good interview.
But that's closer to what a house would actually cost, lol.
😬
a house outside big cities in germany cost now around 600k.
my father paid 60k in 1960.
both is worth like 300 ounces of gold at ist time.
So gold abd house are eqial, its our paycheck = work being devaluated continually
Good to see Peter talking in a relaxed environment rather than the gladiatorial ring of CNBC and Bloomberg interviews.
Its so refreshing! Is this real life?!
Yes, Peter certainly deserves the good life that he's worked so hard for.
@@hhps3 yea he works real hard lmao
When I get my contractors license years ago, one of the shocking realizations when studying building code was learning that the average home built just to code out of stick framing has a life span of around 30-50 years without needing considerable expensive and perpetual maintenance. I am currently in the business of building homes that have a 200+ year life span designed to have very minimal maintenance . The up front cost to design and build out of insulated masonry products and a more robust roof trussing system only account for around 10%-15 more than building to code minimum. In addition to the life span, the saving on utilities building efficiently accounts for considerable savings. When energy prices go up in the future, heating and cooling loads on all these homes being built to code minimums will in some cases become unsustainable which is a factor many people don't look at closely when purchasing a home and factoring in their long term payments.
what state do you build in?
@@jajajunkpt2 NM mostly
Many can't afford their pmt even with the low interest rate because their insurance and taxes have gone up so much.
Gee that must be tough for women.
@@BWater-yq3jx it is tough for anyone.
People over-extend. Everyone thinks they’re entitled to a McMansion. Couple that with government forcing banks to hand out risky loans to scum bags in the name of equality, also the government’s willingness to bailout the banks with our tax dollars, you have a perfect storm.
This podcast has some good nuggets from Peter. I'm a real estate broker since 2001 and his comment about homeowners keeping their home instead of renting to pay a bank instead of a landlord makes sense. I sell REO's and it also makes sense for banks to work with the homeowner instead of foreclose and spend money on the foreclosure process to get market value and lose more. But I believe there will be a market crash, it happens when you least expect it but right now many are blinded and all the signs are all here. It has been for several years. Kiyosaki has been talking about the pension plans. And lay offs will fuel foreclosures.
it will be a crash up as the US Gov prints their way out of this mess. Add a 0 to the price of everything.
All this assumes the printing press doesn't bail out the pensions, and send us all more stimulus. Or, maybe, the word moves away from the USD, and decides to allocate a % of central bank and personal savings in gold that was previously denominated in USD. Those USD will wash up on our shores, looking for something to purchase. So, whether the next sunami of USD is from stimulus, or foreign-held USD I am not convinced there will even be a nominal crash.
not really banks just pile on more debt by opening a second loan for the back payments owed at a higher interest rate they will never own their home, so that isn't any good. The banks want to prevent a crash so the inventory they are sitting on doesn't go down in value, but sorry a crash is inevitable. Banks are selling foreclosers for way more than they are worth as well at least in my area .... The banks can't lose and it's always at OUR cost
Certain cities in Florida in 2009-2010 were close to as bad as the great depression. There were $140,000 4-bedroom block homes with central AC and 2 car garages in 2006 and by 2010 they had crashed 61% down to $55,000. I know because I bought one.
Edit: to give everyone an idea of how enormous the bubble is in Florida, that identical $140,000 home at the peak of the bubble in 2006 is $325,000 today.
Similar here where I live in the mid-Atlantic. The previous owners of my home paid nearly half a million for my home in 2006, I bought it in 2009 for about 45% of what they paid. My home "appreciated" about $130k when the world's economy was shut down in 2020, and today my neighborhood averages about $509k in price.
I've saved and scarified since I was young and I'm glad I did. I paid my mortgage off in less than 13 years, I've been saving as much as I could for retirement since I was 25. I buy used vehicles, non-designer clothes, and live well below my means. My biggest fear when I had a mortgage was a major downturn or worse, a depression where I lose my job, find myself unable to get another job, and lose everything I've worked a lifetime building.
I've been planning to survive a depression and I hope we never see it. If we do, I'll survive. If we don't, then my standard of living in retirement will be that much better.
@@Shadow_Banned_Conservative Exactly the way everyone should approach life, but I've learned that's an unrealistic expectation. The bible says it best when it references 7 years of feast and 7 years of famine. That message will always be relevant as we see economic cycle peaks and valleys. Have to prepare for years of hardships when the economy is growing sustainably and organically for 7-8 years at a time like we saw from 2011-2019.
@@Shadow_Banned_Conservative Shouldn't you sell your house now and wait for the crisis? Then you will be able to buy a house for cheaper price.
I remember this well. They practically couldn’t give houses away in Florida it seemed! I had no money at the time but realized I should be buying up properties down there.
the bible also says that anything higher than 4% interest on a loan is usury. everyone forgets this. @@enthused7591
There is a huge problem to rent your house. Renters are often jerks, who do a lot of damage to the house. The repair costs is often far more than the rent profit.
That's why I prefer renting from big rental companies instead of private renters. Less hassle and toxic behaviours. But I understand people that rending homes for others can be in difficult situation, especially if that person stops paying. But prices can be insane in Poland. For example average salary is 3500PLN (divide by 4 to get USD value) apartament rent costs closer to city center around 2400 + 400 for utilities like internet, electricity, water. And now you have less than 1000 for living. And prices can be more expensive than in Germany now in Poland.
Well being a land lord is not an admirable way to make money. Renters hate you as they should. Land lords offer nothing to society in terms of productivity
Don't forget about squatter laws.
uh yeah buying a home to live in is an investment. You made mistake. Than how come I can sell mine and make money iff the sale? because it ism. I get my money back and more
yes theres expense. but ill get more money back than started
Golden! This is by far the best interview with lots of easy explanations.
He is correct, when the government gets involved prices go up. Same as in the student loan market.
Housing, college, medical -- the three biggest ripoffs out there and all caused by deep government interference in all of them.
government meddling is one of the only guarantees. Just look up here in Canada and see the massive impact it has on prices.
Government cutting funding to higher education caused students to have to borrow more money to pick up the hole left by the government cuts. The funding is funneled through the student, and the chains are on them. For 100 years, we funded schools more directly, and it worked well. Austerity principles have killed higher ed for the lower and middle class.
buy a house and rent out rooms at 18, the only way to acquire wealth without earning 1m per year@@jshyne213
@@jshyne213 students would never have gotten their hands on those student loans if it weren't the government's printing press providing unlimited loans for any degree, to any caliber student.
Excellent Interview! The Best yet! I followed Peter Schiff early during the last housing mess ( sold, rented for years and at the bottom of the local market hopped back in and zoom). I am now in excellent financial shape!
I’ve been following Peter Schiff for a few years now. I’ve heard all the podcasts and interviews and debates. I didn’t know until now he had such an impressive decorative pillow collection.
@AIBoyfriends peter never said invest in gold, all he is sayin is have savings in gold
You have gold so you have money when it crashes. Not as an investment per se.
If you following him for a few years you have probably noticed the markets go up 4 fold while he was calling for the next big crash.......the cure for high prices is high prices. This, too shall pass. Interesting a Real Estate guy is hosting this interview.
@memphistennis1691 He can be wrong on the day it'll crash, but the government manages our economy the way the New Orleans Saints manage their salary cap. Hickey Loomis has gone into every off season 60+ million over the cap but he always gets under it by kicking the can. Now they're in purgatory. That's where the economy is headed with inflation and no way to slow it down without the government defaulting.
I follow Peter pretty closely and have been wanting to hear him talk specifically about the housing market in greater detail so I really appreciate this interview, you just gained another subscriber. Great work 👍👍
sure, certainly these days one needs to pay attention to Schiff. But keep in mind that many many of us paid too close attention to him in the past fifteen years and missed out on the ONLY major stock mkt rise in american history. So there's that! lol
Lets get back to basics. When we bought our first house a little two and a half bedroom semi in the heart of Staffordshire England we paid £20,000 and my yearly wage was around the £8,000. There lay the foundation of our mortgage. The mortgage broker at the time said" Jim as long as your mortgage payments isn't more the a quater of your weekly wage you'll be all right riding out the ups and downs of interest rates. The interest rates at the time where around 7-8%. That went up to 13-15%. Yet we pulled through, why because of the foundation of our mortgage, house price two & a half times that of my yearly wage. Simple. Have a wonderful new year everyone, God bless.
This video was a wealth of knowledge. Thank you Todd and Peter 👍👍
Thanks for watching.
It’s not just real estate that is high. Everything is high, housing, food, energy, water and transportation is almost twice the costs. In 2008 only housing crashed because only housing was high. Many countries are having the same problem right now.
In 1980 $150k is $580k adjusted for inflation so is housing really high or did inflation cause this? In 1995 a car costing $25k would be $49k today. New cars do cost around $50k now. So are prices really high or do we just not understand it’s the same price adjusted for inflation?
Let me give you an example. My parents house brand new in 1977 was 80K. Today, that same old house costs 1.36 MILLION. During the 2008 crash it was still worth 890K, down from about 1Mm. Why so much now? People will pay it and they can finance it. Look at 10-12 year car loans. If they went back to only 24-36 month loans, how many can afford a 2K payment on a Civic?
Also, 40 years ago they warned illegal immigration and anchor babies would drastically lower wages and raise housing costs to unaffordable. In 1991, I was making 33.86 per hour. Today that same job pays minimum wage. At 24 I had 2 new lifted trucks, a new boat, a sand rail, various other toys like dirt bikes and quads, all paid with cash, and a brand new house and a rental property My kids at 24 have nothing really. And work for me.
@@GT-mn3bx $80k in 77’ is $407k now. That’s not an issue, but it costing $1.36 million is because that’s triple the price.
A civic costs around $28k now. There is no 10-12 year car loans. People usually get 5-6 year car loans. That’s around $700 a month which is the average monthly car payment.
That is one way to look at it but if that is true then wages would need to increase the average American wage has not increased to match inflation so either way something has to give and I highly doubt wages will increase so homes have to adjust because they are significantly overpriced to the standard growth of homes.
@@momof4121 yes that is the problem. Wages have stagnated long ago. People aren’t earning enough money to match the inflation rate of the last 40 years.
Great interview, When my mortgage was 5.25 percent the bank kept it, when I refinanced to 2.67 they sold right away to the Fed or whoever buys those low rate mortgages
Excellent conversation and thanks so much for sharing the interview and talk! Housing prices untethered from reality can’t go on forever!
Reality is being re-defined. It's not government, its not capitalism that is the problem. It is overpopulation and global development. Everyone worldwide wants a piece of the pie.
Nice content and amazing dialogue! Excellent amount of information shared. Thank you Todd and Peter
Excellent conversion! Great work by both parties. Your ability to host the conversation was better than expected tbh. Keep it up!
What an amazing episode! Thank you for this extraordinary interview!🏅
Been waiting for this to drop all week! Thank you Todd and Schiff. Glad I have some shiny!
I was born in 81, we lived with my grandparents until I was almost 13 because my parents couldn’t afford to buy a house. Eventually they borrowed the money from my grandfather to buy the land and build a house. My best friend growing up, they lived in a pop-up camper for two years while they built their house. The neighbors at my grandparents, they had two girls about my age, they lived with their grandparents too. I grew up in upstate NY. My husband grew up in South Carolina, they lived in a trailer that had no heating or ac and had no washer or dryer for like 5 or 6 years. His great grandparents finally gave them a lot of land they could build on. I don’t know if it was easier to get a house in the 80’s and 90’s, what does seem much harder though, is to get ahead. My husband and I, every time we get a raise it gets erased by something, taxes, insurance, groceries, utilities etc. It seems like no matter what we do, how hard we work it doesn’t matter. I’m sick of it. Our parents needed help to get the house, but once they did it seemed like it was a breeze for them to get ahead.
Great interview.
Peter is right. The insane artificially low rates caused ridiculous home inflation.
If you have one of these 2.75% rates on a home you originally bought at a low price, you win.
If you have one of these rates on a house you bought at inflated rates , you’re OK…..so long as you like the house.
If you’re the bank holding that fixed 2.75% mortgage, you’re screwed, no matter what happens.
This coming g crash will make ‘08 look like nothing.
We NEVER learn.
Can’t wait. All these kids not paying student loans too. It’s a matter of time
I watched this episode twice. Peter has great insights that people in the real estate business won’t say
Watching it my second time cause i see it as probably the most valuable video I have ever seen on the housing market.
#2 Steve got me 💪 Great work, Todd. You're an absolute machine!
hey hey hey
@@rnt45t1 Let's go!!!!
You’re both stellar and MUCH appreciated!!💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼
He didn't talk about any crash
@@realestatemindset Don't cry!
I love when you have guests on the show. It's always interesting!
Thanks!
I bought a home in 09. It didn't appreciate in value for the first 6 to 7 years. Sold it in 8th year and saw maybe a 20% increase in value.
Then bought in 2017 and saw no increase for the first 3 to 4 years, then it bounced up 70%.
Kinda makes sense when you consider home should double in value every 10 to 15 years. Doesn't always happen in equal increases, but overall, it works out.
08 was very different.
This round there was mostly fixed rate debt, unlike 08... also, many legal protections in place for borrowers since 08 to ensure proper loan godliness are followed.
We also bought mid 2008, house was built 2007 and first buyers lost it. We paid $450,000 for it and sold 2023 for over 1M. 2010 we bought an investment property in Las Vegas and it’s worth 4 times the amount we paid. Sometimes just being patient and being ready with the cash for when the opportunity presents itself is all it takes. Call it luck.. who knows but definitely cash is king. You must save as much as you can and be ready with cash.
Wow, what a great interview from Peter and Todd controls the topic in the interesting path and gives audience plenty of time to absorb Peter's golden information with less interruption. I bought 5 brand new homes in California and it was easy in the late 90 and early 2000. With my salary doubled, i cannot even buy price of home today. I cannot stay in my 5 bedroom home of $3400/month as my SS is just $2k/month. My realistic option is buy a cheap land and buy a brand new manufactured home delivered to the lot with no HOA and restrictions. The lot i bought for $35k last year is half hour away. It's now 13 months looking for another land closer and they are $399k to $500k that defeats my goal. With Peter's interview, i will save and wait for 24 months. If nothing happens, I'll just use the lot half hour away. Please share if there is other way.
Collaboration by two of the most interesting and visionary people in their respective businesses who just told us the truth, as best they can, while everybody around them clings to their denials.
Iroinic that you point out people clinging to denials because that's exactly what these guys are doing. The economy is very strong, for rich people anyway, and that's simply a change in the profile of our economy (i.e. there are many more rich people now than years ago) demographically. Nothing these guys just presented has any evidence that it will lead to a housing bubble crash much less a full-blown depression. It seems to me that these kind of far-out claims are based on political desires for a crash rather than any actual evidence of such a thing. Why are you buying into this and why are you in denial? Just answer how housing prices can crash if there are simply not enough houses to go around? What exactly is the alternative?
actually visionary is an oxymoron. Please look at the performance of Schiff's funds over the last 20 years. Start with Euro Pacific Fund and come back and correct your post.
@@edmundmcgrath213 visionaries (Nikola Tesla comes to mind) can die broke. The track record in the manipulated real estate or money market world has nothing to do with seeing things that others don't see. The biggest problem is that even visionaries can't always see how the manipulations are going to go. It's not their fault. The money isn't worth much today compared to 50 years ago so that's all we need to know. Peter sees it depreciating even more, and with the way we're building debt from consumer to government, is his vision wrong? We'll find out. But just because somebody pulls a rabbit out of their arse doesn't equate to the money gaining purchasing power. It's over, dude, and Peter called it.
@@zeppelinmexicano In my book in regards to investing, being a visionary is akin to being a taro card reader. Either that thing that you're selling has made your clients money or it hasn't. In the last 15 years investing in the S&P 500 which a child could do without a money manager, would have tripled what your friend Peter's Euro Pacific fund has gained, not for him of course as he did well on the client's investments, but I'm talking about the clients. My point is and was not to take investment advice. Incidentally, in case you're interested, the dollar the US dollar is the strongest currency in the world. It's been the reserve currency since 1944 that status is not changing and has not irrespective of the conspiracy theorists on these forums. Buy what he selling if you like at your own peril. Guys like Mark Faber, Kayosaki, Jim Rogers and this guy they sell gloom and doom and collapse that's their product that's their soap. If you had ignored the advice of all four of these characters put together and just invested in the stock market indices you would have done infinitely better.
Housing is something that we can't afford now because of the cost of houses, interest rate, taxation and government. The government get us paid and try to benefit from our salaries by increasing everything that comes to the government pocket. You can't work just one job and afford a property mortgage.
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Great interview!!! I follow both of you guys. I believe we're in for some rough waters but it's the whole world and while they're out for blood, they're still following our moves. We'll prosper!
2008 got me in Atlanta. Bought a home for 119k two years later nothing sold for 30k. Now that townhome goes for 265k. Luckily I got a deed in lieu which was a bail out. Credit score never was affected nor did I owe any difference.
Yes Peter is exactly correct I’ve been in the residential building business for 50 years and he’s dead on I don’t believe the government’s gonna be able to get out of this one. but I remember in 89 when the resolution trust came in and they auctioned off houses absolute some of my first time home buyers but homes at that time for 100,000 small ranches and such and I would See them in the newspaper auctioning off at $20,000 good deal for the buyer was able to rent them out cheap and when the market came back years later they sold them for a profit. That will probably happen again maybe.
My first home in 1984 was 14% interest because I had no credit. But it was only $30,000😊. I think prices and appraisals need to adjust back down to reality and it would help EVERYONE!
Can I buy your house for 30k ?
Oh it's going to "adjust" alright, pretty much all at once next year when unemployment rockets up to 11% because the middle-class consumer is in the worst shape in world history.
lol, dream on and take Peters advice the hyperinflation is the only way out. Get used to adding 0's to the price of everything. Buy Buy Buy@@sarahann530
I'll pay 45k BOOMER. My first home was 461k. I'm house broke. How you like that BOOMER
TOO BAD IM GONNA LOSE THE DAMN THING TO THE GREAT RESET
Bring it! Getting ready for the storm of despair and opportunity.
Too many corporate owners buying them up with the Blackrock loans. Those companies need to fail before the inventory will come to market for average citizen investors. Many had shorter terms loans so could happen if their renters lose their jobs and the government doesn’t absorb them into some sort of subsidized housing. It’s not going to be pretty.
Peter is a super star. Love this guy, so educational.
I've never seen Peter more relaxed and candid. Great interview. Thanks !
Been a Peter Schiff fan since the 08 Ron Paul movement and my life trajectory changed, have learned so much to prepare for these times. Thankful for Peter, Dr. Paul and you, too Todd!
That is absolutely correct. It's not the home but the land that creates value. My dad bought his home for $18k in 1970 built in the 50s and has only upgraded the electrical is now worth $1.5 M. It's the location not the home. Maybe if it were larger then maybe worth $2.2M like my brother that paid $240k. Location, Location
Taxed at what% yearly
Home values are decreasing rapidly in New Hampshire, and New York. This is going to impact anyone who bought as far back as 2014.
I sure hope so. I sold in 2019. Now we have to live abroad because housing is too expensive in the US. Might buy in with a condo if it all crashes.
No they're not. They're dropping rapidly in Austin, Boise, Vegas, Phoenix, and now FL is starting. Northeast is just starting to show the smallest cracks, but anything decent is gone in 5 minutes.
@@OtisFlintagree. Wtf are these people talking about.
idc what my house is worth, I'm not betting on it to get a profit at all when we sell. I invested elsewhere and treated the home like what it is: something depreciating that I fart in.
That was great thanks for your work and dedication to get the truth and knowledge and predictions out you guys are spot on
Bought A House 2006 $975k. Made 1 Year Mortgage Payments. Challenged Forged Documents In Court And Walked Away In 2018. House Sold In 2020 For $349k. NEW OWNER ONLY HAD TO REPLACE THE CARPET.
Uh huh, you can be anything you want online buddy
A rule of thumb with a mortgage is that you will buy yourself a house and the bank a house. If you look at what you have paid over the course of 30 years you paid for 2 houses. The question then is: Did your house appreciate over 2 times the value? If not you lost money on the mortgage alone let alone all the taxes and up keep.
In 30 years? Easily
Hopefully one's salary has increased over 30 years and one has been paying down the mortgage faster than 30 years so the wise person would have had a 30 year mortgage but paid it down in 15. After 30 or 15 years one owns a house via a mortgage; after 30 years in a rental unit you own nothing. If one lives in a rental unit one IS paying for the property taxes and the upkeep--- the rent should be covering those costs. If one is handy on one's home one has been able to do maintenance for just the cost of the items. No matter what one is going to have to pay to live some place.
Great show with a fantastic guest in Peter Schiff. Love his content and the accuracy of his knowledge/predictions. Btw I don’t know if this was your first time in PR but we have been several times and it’s by far one of the most beautiful places on earth. Love it!
I have been to PR I wasn’t that impressed. Infrastructure is poor.
Food was so so. Lots of run down areas residential and commercial.
Tired of hearing housing crash since last two years but I dont see anything yet and the housing market is appreciating
Yup, highest inventory in 13 years, buckle up buttercup
What you see and what you actually get is much different. You don't even know reality based on a script followed by all news agencies...have you noticed they all talk the same language (script) for the respective day. I wish you well. it helps to do your own research.
In 2008 my mortgage was 240,000 at around 4.5%. I’m currently 28,000 at 1.2% fixed until it’s over. Just need to worry about school fees. It never ends.
It used to be cost effective to do home projects yourself. Of course it costs less, but the price of materials has gone up so much.
Edit: actually 70s contemporary homes are desirable. I’m not saying the décor necessarily, but the architecture. They have personality.
Peter is a very smart man. Thanks for the great interview 👍
He’s a crook.
@@nicholasstabile445 Yeah, You're probably right. Just giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Great information explained clearly. I appreciate your candid truth about our current housing market. Being fully informed with accurate information can save people from financial ruin. You are offering a great service.
How ? Please explain what you learned that you already didn’t know ?
Interesting discussion. Regarding SFR during post 2008, where I live in SoCal, people would dig up the palm trees and sell them before handing over the keys to the bank. Palm trees are very expensive, and even a small palm tree can be sold for $10k.
So true, on top of houses being way inflated many are falling apart.
I knew things were going down in 2006 while working for Countrywide Home Loans with the programs being rolled out and all the MSA’s with the builders that I changed careers before the crisis went down so wasn’t surprised. I just got back in the biz in 2021 and am very nervous about artificial inflated prices of real estate that occurred through corporate buying and overpaying for properties that makes it hard for me to do my job to the best of my ability. Rates are one thing but the RE prices crashing will devastate many because it typically takes 12-15yrs to come back and I am at the closer age of retirement and want to advise my siblings who want to cash out for their retirement to do it now even though they may not be ready but then you have to worry about your cash being safe in the banks.
You have FDIC, why would you be worried? You can buy US Treasury bills, there is no risk there. It's fully guaranteed by the fed.
Interesting comment…thanks for sharing your perspective. Are you advising your siblings to sell their houses now? Not sure what you mean by “cashing out.” Thanks
@@Maggie-zr2ow My concern is with the stock market. I think all my siblings are staying put in their homes which are close to payoff or have a low rate.
@@JayandSarah some have over the $250k that is insured so that is my worry and a lot vested in a 401k which is hedged by stocks
@@curiousgirl.4134 I have concerns about the stock market too. I cashed out most everything except for a few that are way lower than where I bought them. We put it all in a money market for now. I think politically the country is in for a rough ride this year and the next, and I think the stock market will take a few dives. We could get another serious Covid strain. I hear talk about commercial real estate loans coming due and causing problems but not sure how to interpret that. I just don’t see consistency in the future, and expect turbulence, and it’s very worrisome.
Peter schiff is that dude for real , awesome knowledge keep it up .
Todd is killing it
Spoken like a true crash bro. Can group you, Todd and that realtor guy who rents and is waiting to buy a home once it crashes(absolutely bonkers guy).
@@DummMoney-rr1fi spoken like a true "now is the best time to buy" realtor 😆
❤❤❤
Are you a realtor? Most average folks are seeing the unaffordability . What do u think will happen? Wages will go up? Something has to happen. Right?@@DummMoney-rr1fi
haha, someone will be correct. I do know that 34Tx.045 is 1.53T in interest per year on the debt. Do you think the old US gov will slash spending by 1.53T plus the 2T deficit to dig out of this mess? What do you think is going to happen to nominal prices in all assets? your the one who should find yourself a now is the time to buy realtor@@fusion82
Great clear recount of this vicious circle
I totally agree. Peter is one sharp individual. Thank you for hosting. Excellent point on staying in a low interest rate mortgage. Even if you're upside down on property value, your 3% mortgage is way cheaper than an 8% on the same value property. This video is a great resource. I'll be sharing it all over Twitter.
I love that you all have been posting stuff about the housing market crash. I was an LO and was trying to talk to my BM 12 months ago stating my concerns. His response. ‘I’m an Econ major and that’ll never happen’. I was looked at like a crackpot. I said back then we are headed into the next Great Depression. But I didn’t go to college so what did I know …
Think tho how the intellegensia were done in along side royals and rentiers that created a communism of the Soviet Union for 70 years of punishment?????? The victors write the history?????-
I live in Canada and have been hearing about this restate bubble crash for the last decade. I want to buy a house but I am loosing faith that home prices will ever fall.
Just be patient
@@ralphmedina3437 millennials have been patient waiting for this bubble to burst and they’re approaching 40…
and spell check.
Capitulation is near my friend.
@@Bleebleeblahblahblah I hope so, not that I want people to suffer, but I want to own a house too.
Excellent video! Your content continues to be wonderful.
I am in the UK we have a housing problem that includes imigration where there are two few properties.Too expensive to build new build and quality problems with governmental heating views that leave deep concerns over box ticking.
Rental prices are going through the roof with paricular landlords targeting student lets.
To use a term of the US Stock exchange too many fools are making too much money.
Applying bandaid after bandaid does not fix a compound fracture
First guy every to explain things in a way folks can understand without all the fluff. I am new fan.
An enlightening interview with great information. Keep them coming.
Housing prices fell over 90% in Las Vegas in 2009
Entire streets were vacant.
@@andrewbelcher1262 I remember going to visit my sister in Vegas and driving down the street was ghost towns. We decided to buy a small investment property 2010 and it’s worth 4 times what we paid for it. We also locked rates at 2.75 and 3% on some other homes in Los Angeles (our first home which we bought in 1994 when interest rates were 9%, now it’s 2.75%). Patience is a virtue.
I want to know what bad things are coming…and the truth is what I need to know!! I will be following you…
As an appraiser we are doing a devaluation on homes/real property an average of 5 to 10% now from the original value set by the auditor. Now with the 27% increase going into affect, home values are going down by the month now, and tax values are going the opposite way, up. Bottom line is there is a difference between values for taxing and the real values for buyers to purchase. Another view is a home valued two months ago and financed at $500,000 is today average $450 or even $400,000.
Do you see a massive crash coming in 2024, sir?
This is a landmark quality interview. No notes, no script and no teleprompter. Imagine if this guy was the president? The country we would have!
So you are saying he's like Donald Trump. No notes no teleprompter...............CHECK!
Imagine if there was a congress that actually cared that worked with a president who capable & cared. An corporations who wouldn't payoff politicians
@@islesanctum833 EXACTLY ... and politicians that would finally bite the bullet and get tax rates back to where those that owned 90% of USA paid 90% of the taxes. That would payoff the accrued debts of the country and bring inflation AND interest rates close to 0% IMNSHO of course
Based on your comment and spelling you are an epic fail.@andrewwilliams8622
So informative. Watch all the time.
Practically speaking I think the best option is buy a land plant your food and settle your house that is affordable and easy to maintain so you don’t incur high property tax and high maintenance. Lands are cheaper and you can still find some good areas to buy and plant your crops so you can have something eat when worse economic scenarios come.
You can eat the gold bar nor your jewel ties . In time those will no longer be of value to humans in dire need to survive. The most important thing is contentment. You have more peace in your heart whatever Seasin in life- yes work hard while you still can and towards your old age you have fully paid up house
I made it to the end. Whether Peter is correct or not we should all hope for the best and plan for the worst. Peter's ability to not only think outside the box but receive criticism at the same time is a quality that all the greats possess.
I think Schiff has been saying that for about 5 maybe 10 years now. Get real.
Try 20 years
Have you seen the national debt? It’s about to get very real.
I was confused how no one saw it coming in 2006. Houses were jumping by $100k or more in a year. Ridiculous big houses with POS cars parked in the driveway and no furniture inside. I had no idea what was happening in the back end, but the front end was obvious and anyone in the business should have seen it.
My wife and I were doing serious research on house purchasing in 2003-2006 , including buying an investment property because we had already outgrown our starter home. (I kept thinking: this housing market is nuts! It's unsustainable!)
When it all came crashing down in 2008-2009 , I honestly wasn't surprised. We got out of debt, started being extremely frugal on purpose and began investing slowly but steadily since. We sold our little starter home at a loss in 2009. (No equity, long story, but we were stupid)!
By the way, we NEVER bought that bigger house but we also don't necessarily regret it. We chose to rent a beautiful home we could afford and I'm almost embarrassed to tell people how little rent we pay in comparison to where we used to live: and we don't pay property taxes, any maintenance, home owners insurance, water, sewer, trash and thank God they mow every freakin blade of grass and shovel everyflake of snow on the driveway and on the sidewalk!!
My brother's real estate taxes, (he lives 30 minutes from us), pays almost 1/2 in property taxes in one year than I pay in rent.
We don't know how anyone with a normal income that will be able to afford a reasonable home...saving up a half million dollars in cash (about an average home price today) if you choose to go that route) is one slogging trial.
Somethin' gotta give bro!
This guy is telling the truth about the real estate market. 👌
Sure, but his timing is awful. Again he's calling for a collapse several years too early (like Burry). And none of that ''better a few years early than a week too late'' please, unless you really hate making money. The economy works in cycle: there's a pump and then a crash. Everyone knows that. Predicting that there will be a crash 'at some point' is like predicting the will be a rainy day ''at some point''....
@@cryptoricardo I also am a skeptic. And not just because he misrepresented a few facts….
Great discussion, thank you! You have great interviewing skills!
How exactly do you have hyper inflation AND a housing crash?
Homes have been pumped up with free money, wildly inflating prices. That air will be let back out.
Not necessarily. People are willing to pay it because all they ever ask is what is my monthly. Same for cars. They never ask the price. You can sell a Civic for 200K if all they ask is what is the monthly.
Where did you get the free money ?
@@sarahann530 low interest rates make money very cheap(ie the hyperbole “free money”). People can borrow more in loans for cheap so houses are naturally going to go up since people can borrow more money for it.
What free money?
Hi Mark,
Are you referring to these recent past years, when the Fed was making M2 money supply to banks at 0% -- relating to "interest -free-" Fiat U.S. Federal Reserve Notes, in some physical paper, otherwise in digital "printed" in the form of Fiat creation, by digital creation and transfer?
Thus "free" Fiat United States Currency?
Peter Schiff nailed it. He knows exactly what is going on. Excellent interview!
Bet he’s completely wrong. Remember this comment June 2024 when you are saying “ omg home prices are up”
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
The amount of home owners now living paycheque to paycheque today will be large.
I bought a 1100 sqft 4 bd/2ba house in a 50/50 residential/commercial area of south Fontana CA just after 9/11 for 142k.🙏🏼❤
I was lucky i had a decent local trucking job,
and paid it off after my kids were grown and left 23 yrs later
when I medically retired.
I am 1 of those few that fled Ca as the taxes and costs for everything was skyrocketing.
I couldn't believe my house had gained 300k in value,
but all of those costs and property taxes followed.
I was lucky I got out when I did.🙏🏼
I ended up in small town TX where my wifes family was from,
and paid 100k for an acre with a bigger house, cheaper property tax/HOA fees. 👍
No stress, surrounded by wildlife, great neighbors, no traffic, no pollution ❤
The only issue here is the border crisis an hour south of here.🤬😡
Sad to say my daughters and most of my family are stuck in CA and NY, and refuse to leave.😪😪🙏🏼
God bless and help everyone who are having to suffer thru this fiasco.
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼😪😪😡
God Bless u and yours. Live the dream! Garden n guns, cattle, rabbits chickens goats .
Brilliant interview. A big thanks to Peter & Todd for imparting some wisdom on the modern real estate climate.
Very much enjoy listening to a smart common sense economic advisor like Peter Schiff!
Glad to see Todd getting his jt due keep bringing this great content. Sellers are pricing ppl outta the housing market its gotta flip.
Somebody has to pay! And that is you my friend! Homes not going to get cheaper because we printed 40% more dollars! What you seeing is diluted value of dollar materialized in prices. In fact prices will continue to climb, in modest term obviously, and you would have to pay more than today. You keep listening to this smart guy (he is making $ off each video he makes and contributing nothing to the real gdp) who is making $ off fear, you would be rolling in your grave when you buy a home.
Welcome to Venezuela,Joe Biden eddition.