Arun Kumar Questions India's GDP Data, Says Country is Growing at 1.5% | Dialogue with Sujit Nair
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- Опубліковано 13 чер 2024
- In this episode of ‘Dialogue’, Mr. Sujit Nair engages in a conversation with India’s veteran economist and author Prof. Arun Kumar and discusses various aspects of the Indian economy and what we can expect in 2024.
Prof. Arun Kumar answers some pertinent questions like has India achieved everything that it aimed for in 2023? Are our people doing better than before? Are there jobs for the youth? Has the savings of a common man increased?
#economy #indianeconomy #youth #jobs #savings #gdp #demographicdividend #profarunkumar #inflation #unemployment #freebies #production #consumption #politics #organizedsector #unorganizedsector #agriculture #HWNews
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Prof Arun Kumar has touched some very interesting points. I think he is right about how our education systems do not translate well into R&D. We are not taught to be creative in problem solving, instead we are taught to focus on exam result over everything else. And our office culture is so bureaucratic as well, no encouragement for innovation and promoting new ideas.
Rattafication instead of understanding context leads to lack of analyzing ability.
@@pritpaldhaliwal6509can you give the details on this topic..
NAREGA economists talking about R&D!
1. Arun Kumar, an Indian economist, discusses economic challenges in a UA-cam video titled "Dialogue with Sujit Nair."
2. Despite reported growth, Kumar points out the struggles of the common man in India, emphasizing high unemployment and rising prices.
3. He criticizes the government's focus on freebies, claiming it diverts resources from employment generation and masks the real state of the economy.
4. Kumar questions the accuracy of India's GDP data, highlighting concerns about declining faith in it.
5. The economist advocates for investing in the unorganized sector and education to boost employment and the economy.
6. He expresses worries about the future, especially regarding India's economic growth initiatives, calling for urgent course correction.
7. Kumar notes that while the overall economy may show growth, the common man's life has not significantly improved.
8. Unemployment levels and rising prices have disproportionately affected the middle class, leading to a "K-shaped recovery" after the pandemic.
9. Global issues, like conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, pose additional challenges for the Indian economy and its middle class.
10. The Indian GDP data overlooks the unorganized sector, causing income loss for a significant portion of the workforce.
11. Freebies, as a political strategy, are criticized for potentially harming the economy rather than solving challenges faced by the poor population.
12. Declining faith in India's GDP data is attributed to short-term concessions and a lack of trust in long-term development policies.
13. Kumar estimates a lower labor force participation rate in India compared to advanced economies, particularly among women.
14. He emphasizes inadequate investment in the agriculture sector and increasing mechanization, affecting productivity and production levels.
15. Policies have shifted demand from the unorganized sector to the organized sector, leading to a decline in employment for the poor.
16. Government programs like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme are criticized for inadequate job creation due to high mechanization.
17. Kumar advocates for supporting the unorganized sector and generating jobs therein, disputing the accuracy of GDP data based on organized sectors.
18. Weaknesses in India's education system are highlighted, affecting the country's research and development sector.
19. Kumar criticizes the emphasis on labor-intensive schemes over investments in education and health for a dynamic economy.
20. Solutions proposed include focusing on micro industries, simplifying the Goods and Services Tax (GST) system, and boosting agriculture to strengthen the economy.
Thank you
Thank you so much to Prof Arun Kumar ji and Sujit Nair ji
He is very clear about what he says. Explained in very simple words.
Excellent interview, pertinent questions asked and explained beautifully and lucidly by ARUN Kumar Sir ,
Waiting for more such interviews on Indian economy and polity
These gentlemen are being kind to Modi.. economy is actually shrinking by 10%!
I love that Dumbledore look that Prof Arun has. Looks immediately trustworthy even if he sometimes is way above my head.
😂😂 he's extremely knowledgeable person
Yes , it will be way above ...if you don't read more serious stuff
He is high ...90% poor in India? 7% middle class in India?
Didn't answer whether free bees are good or bad.
@@Arcticdawn1093 a closer number according to the FAO is 196 million undernourished, i.e.: about 14%. If you look at other numbers such as multidimensional poverty, the number is closer to 20% or 280 million, still nowhere ner the 90%.
This guy is a genius. Have heard a lot of high-profile economists talk on what ails Indian economy, but no one has truly given a good solution as he has
This guy is in dire pain. Congress government used to give him lutyens delhi treatment. He has to say in every government policy. He was important.
BJP government doesn't ask him. Ghass nahi dalti.
So much pain.
Only a stup*d who have no idea of economy and severely hates the ruling government will give such a comment
It's incorrect to say that GDP only includes the formal sector or only the formal sector can be measured. There are various means of measuring ALL growth (not just the formal sectors) and if a "Prof" doesn't know that, he's a moron.
His comments, btw, also means that the economy is much larger than the official $3.3 trillion we are reporting (with the claim that this part is growing much slower).
Great service to humanity, thx for sharing, my salute to Dr Arun
Really informative and thought provoking interview about current affairs Thanks sir
Thanks much for bringing the experts in your show
Excellent discussion. Very informative. Got to know a lot of things. Thanks a lot sir for ur explanation.
Prof.Arun Saab...thought process is so valuable to listen
Wow! It is remarkable how clearly and exhaustively he has explained, considering the brief time available, the dangerous course which the present economic policies and actions have set for us, the people, ..... policies and actions designed to benefit a political group in nexus with a few corporate industrialists
It has been quite enlightening. Please have more such interviews with prof Arun Kumar and such other economists who are fearless and independent.
😮😂
Rightly said. The GoI should keep away from the religious parameters and talk about economic growth.
We were all sleeping when only Hindu temples were controlled by the government. No secular government should be involved in administration of religious places.
We slept when government was subsidising Haj pilgrimage by Muslims. Governments should not be doing that. No secular government does that.
Government was holding Iftar parties for Muslims. No government should be doing that.
We have intellectuals talking about secularism.
That is intellectual debauchery.
Prof. Arun Kumar is the only Indian who talks sense.
These gentlemen are being kind to Modi.. economy is actually shrinking by 25%!
Brother u r right. The economy is shrinking and gullible share market Investor's digging their own grave
Since how many years is it shrinking ? By 5% or more? I know economy shrank only on COVID.
Do how do you explain the Buying spree ,travel housing costing crores.?
@@rajkumarganesan9417q
@@mohanrao6 sarcasm my friend sarcasm! 😂
Thanks so much for the nice presentation..
Thank you. Very credible
Sir, nice information
India's debt is almost equal to GDP ( incorrect inflated figures being claimed by govt), then it's a very bad state of economy..... Countries like Srilanka, Pakistan, Nepal etc., have become bankrupt because their country debts exceeded GDP figures.... From the recent warnings from IMF that debts crossing GDP amply proves the Indian economy is not in good shape.... 😮
India's Debt to GDP ratio is increasing
Service to Debt ratio is also increasing.
Every year 10 lakh crores should be kept just to pay the interest for this debt. Govt collect 7 lakh crores tax revenue.
This deficiency results in asking for more loans just to keep paying upfront interest.
Only way to get this solved is to collect more tax which means "Bure din" is going to stay for longer time
Let's see.. how things go
I appreciate your coinage "IMF" warning. No media highlighted the IMF warning.
@@rajkumarganesan9417cuz 99% of media is a godi media🙏🏼
@@rajkumarganesan9417 media only highlights when IMF says India's a bright spot.
@@rajkumarganesan9417Modi is the biggest liar of India. He will lie without hesitation that "I have made India into Vishwa guru" while he himself knows the reality is that India has fallen from 94 rank to now bottom most 136 rank out of 190 countries in terms of per capita income and per capita GDP.
Mr.Sujith and Arun Kumar sir wish you and our channel viewers a very happy new year.
GDP may be correct, as it takes into account only the formal sector. Why should any elected government care for the informal sector that does not fund the political parties? Freebies are a proven method of vote canvassing at minimal cost. It is better to keep the poor as poor to ensure that freeby strategy works. At the same time, the rich has to be made richer for enhanced funding.
Modi, digitised the economy and got Jan Dhan Accounts opened which helped the unorganised business become formal. This is a master stroke by Modi. In the bargain informal business man is able to build his credit worthiness. This enable him to borrow money to improve his business.
That's an incorrect statement that GDP only includes the informal sector. There are various means of measuring ALL growth (not just the formal sectors) and if a "Prof" doesn't know that, he's a moron.
His comments, btw, also means that the economy is much larger than the official $3.3 trillion we are reporting (with the claim that that part is growing much slower). Where'd he get his degree?
😂😂😂 Haan bhai negative growth hai India mein. GDP going towards zero 😂😂😂
Correct. When debt equals income, balance is zero. Simple maths.
@@BM-cz5uz Do learn some accountancy. Take a course.
In all firms, the balance sheet clearly shows that ALL ASSETS = ALL LIABILITIES. That's isn't a genius statement, and doesn't mean all companies make no money.
@@Bharat_P
You please learn some accounting.
- All Debt = Liabilities
BUT!
- All Liabilities NOT EQUAL to Debt!!
And the Balance Sheet Equation is :
Assets = Liabilities + Equity !!
Did you forget Equity?
Merge contribution for R&D. Yes Prof Arun Kumar speaks the truth.
Why are these NAREGA economists talking about R&D?
@@Dk-uh4nostupid donot know you NAREGA FOR rural population who gave 180 work see today indian private consumption all time low our services sector growth down private sectors investment dip per capita income Bangladesh surpass and import all time high highly debt problem average india people is gowing to debt trap Before abusing someone, look at him, why are you saying that when you have to talk about economic policies then take off the glasses of religion.
GST INCREASED AGAIN AND AGAIN. COMMON MAN BLEED MORE AND MORE TO HELP GROWTH OF FEW CORPORATES.
Excellent 👍
I never miss Prof. Arun Kumar interview. Thanks HW News.
THANKS good discussion
There are a few things which the givernment should do on priority. There is a limit to diverting people's attention towards unproductive issues like Mandir, Masjid etc. Let us accept the fact that majority of Indians are struggling to make both ends meet. There is massive unemployment, structural weaknesses in Indian economy which is heavily pro-rich. Even the space occupied by petty shopkeepers have been taken over by large conglomerates. The intetests of petty businessmen and small scale industries which have huge employment potential should be protected. . Lastly let us call a spade a spade and be honest about our data without which we will be groping in the dark.
But the big boss goes around the world saying everything is fine and his government keeps on borrowing external debt.
Professor has spoken the truth. It is extremely alarming. However, what we are told officially is that India is shining 😢. We have a fantastic marketing and PR department which is enchanting and mesmerizing us. A very good example is the mobile phone PLI and make in India wherein it is not MII but AII(make in India / assembled in India). Our export is favoring other countries who buy our subsidized export😢.
Please don't commit sucide.
Happy new year to each one following Sujit Nair ji.
one of the sensible episode.
Now the situation is that -- living with basic needs (eating at home, simple lifestyle) is very affordable.. But once we start to have some luxuries such as eating out,, hotel stay etc it gets expensive.. One family lunch at a decent restaurant can easily cost 4 - 5K. But if we want a simple lifestyle is very affordable today..
FAO is saying that 74% Indians are not able to have nutritious diet. May be you are in the top 26%.
@@riteshsinghchoudhary115 FAO is also saying India has successfully been able to feed its people and yet create a huge surplus and is therefore to take a central role in helping feed and reduce hunger across Africa and elsewhere. Sounds like conflicting messages from the same Org.
@@Bharat_P source?
@@Bharat_P " FAO is also saying India has successfully been able to feed its people". Incorrect. FAO is highly concerned by imbalances causing eg widespread anemia. Poor diet. "Indian diet is significantly low in fruits, legumes, nuts, fish, and dairy that are crucial for optimum growth, development and prevention of NCDs."
@@peterquennellnyc poor diet is something which isn't going away anytime soon, especially as people move away from physical work to more cerebral work. They're no longer getting enough physical activity to burn away the excess carbs in the diets. This is not a poor-person's problem, and afflicts everyone. Sufficient food doesn't equate to sufficient healthy food.
You have great communication skill. Your gestures, attire, personality and communication is very identifiable by us Indians.
Excellent interview and very informative.
Thanks.
I remember Professor Arun's statement during COVID period in 2020-21, where he was first to predict negative GDP and after month's following government did disclosed that India's GDP is around -10% fy20.
If you looked outside the window during COVID days you could have said that the GDP will see negative growth 😒
@@abhinavrakesh108 no government didn't published any report on GDP for almost a year, until his analysis.
He rightly said that unless there is course correction there will be no development. But government wont do that it will help only corporates and India will never grow.
Nothing is correct since may 2014 except bigotry.
Rightly said brother.
We'll explained sir .more information. Thank you sir
Excellent, thanks
Crystal clear analysis- unfortunate we are not having their services in running the economy
Very good explanation and suggestions regarding economic crisis.
He thinks about the last man in this country...so wonderful
Very smart professor
Why doesn't India conduct survey on caste untouchability, atrocities, and terrorism?
Ask Modi
Exonomy is shrinking...but how share market is going north?
Very insightful episode
A daily must watch to PM and FM until 2024 budget🙏🏼.
Honest discussion
As he has a good solution 🎉
No employment, rates of all day today items, all groceries have gone up. Middle, lower middle and economically weaker sections are the major sufferers.
is poor people spending habits has changed?
@@kiritshah9114even in the dialogue it has been mentioned.. check it again.
In most countries GDP is measured using three ways - Production method, Income method, and Expenditure method. All three measures, if measured correctly, should give the same result. National statistical agencies resolve any discrepancies using internationally accepted adjustment procedures. National statistical agencies also broadly adapt data collection and reporting methodology recommended by international statistical organisations such as the United Nations Statistical Division. In Australia for example an average of the three measures is reported as the GDP of a quarter or year.
As this professor says if the production method doesn't pick up the production of unorganised sectors like micro units and small farmers the other two measures (Income and Expenditure) should pick up economic activity of these sectors unless there is a serious fault in the GDP measurement methodology used by the Indian government and its statistical agency.
Further, national statistical agencies generally recognise the challenges in measuring GDP contribution of unorganised sectors (even developed countries have unorganised sectors, black market, cash economy etc) that are difficult to measure. So they use an estimate or approximation to factor in the contribution of these sectors in their GDP calculation. Statistical agencies don't use blind estimates or wild guesses but use small targeted sample surveys, use of other indirect data etc for this.
Except in a few developed countries like Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the statistical agencies of most countries are not completely independent from government interference. So you have to take with a pinch of salt many statistics published by statistical agencies in most countries, especially if the data has potential to damage the government's image or reelection prospects.
Any deficiencies in statistical data, however, is not always the fault of the statistical agencies or governments but could be due to limitations in collection and/or reporting methodologies. After all most economic statistics are based on the survey of a small representative sample of the actual entities, not a census of every single business in a country. It's not 100% correct but that's the best you can get.
Nice information 👍
Super dialouge
Very good information
Economy is shrinking by 1000%, Arun Kumar recently said Secularism can only be saved and Muslims empowered only if all Hindu men are finished and Hindu women sold off - can Congress party promise muslims this?
Arun Sir must start his own U Tube...
A man earning Rs 50,000 in a city is in a mess
Rent in a decent area Rs 15,000
Schools fees for 2 kids is 15000
NO SAVINGS
We want to check the qualifications of Arun Kumar and check cretetials of University also.
Even IT is no longer a viable solution to unemployment in India due to the rise of AI...in fact IT companies are firing entry to mid level employees.
Hope the Finance Minister and the Finance Department of the government of India can take some advice from Prof Arun Kumar, and do some course correction and improvement for the financial and employment situation in India
That is pretty goof!
What is Mr arun kumar meant with the collection of GST at the last stage. He should've explained it with an example.
I am a statistician for last 20 years - Data can be analysed any which way - It sis easy .. Congress also did the same -- China is considering FII and FDI as foreign Investment ( one figure ) , All western countries doing the same -- Famous pharma company COVID vaacinee efficacy data was mis representated through same favoubale statistics -- NOW the question is if that statistics HELPs BHARAT qualitatively , then one should welcome that irrespective of whether the data is technically correct or not .. forget about GDP number -- One can physically see QR code every where which means formalizing even small business which will now count in government numbers .. Hence MODI government number may be anything BUT quality of people life uplifted for sure despite very drastic global events such as Russia Ukriane war , COVID and now Isreal war
Bullet Brand Rs. 56/- Rice has become Rs. 70/Kg
Whole world is facing the same problem nowadays? Let's see this also responsibly.
Because of business, corporations we get job creation government shouldn't create jobs.
Prof Arun Kumar ought to refrain from throwing dust in the eyes of the people of India.If women employment rate in India is 27 percent ,must he compare India with Brazil and the US where broken homes and single mothers are higher?
And why we have large number of young people?
Why can't we have less number of them?
Mr. Nair , please listen to the professor😊
Gdp data has always been irrelevant for all countries... The main issue here is, RBI minting higher denomination coins and reducing currency notes... Thts a very big issue, higher the denomination of coins, will increase inflation to round off to the nearest notes. Also all Forex companies reject coins & prefer only currency notes... This is the real issue which all media should speak.. 🤷🏼♀️🤷🏼♀️
Interesting. Never thought about it before. Thank you mam
How can the business class do well if others don't go and buy their products? Just 2% can't do all the spending.
Modi government is borrowing hundred lakh crores of rupee and spending it on infrastructure, this is shown as spending in GDP.
The reason why infrastructure projects are politicians favourite is because of bribe of 30 - 40 % in such projects. The government will always limit their spending on projects where they don't get enough bribe like schools, drinking water, judiciary, trains (not Railway infrastructure), public transport buses etc or on anti corruption systems to minimise bribery.
What about exports? Is India able to bring in money from outside? Why not?
130 cr people in India r in dire straits
Please raise your hands if you want see Arun Kumar sir on beer biceps ❤
Is there anything correct in modifying regime?
With money supply in check this could cause a bottleneck in small biz job production, thereby
putting low wage jobs in jeopardy.
I do not think the common man life has improved
GDP of China is 5 times bigger than India. India's literacy percent is 77, while China 97%, Canada 100%, Ukraine 100%.
India is the most populous country in the world, but in a list of 200 top Universities in the world, India has not even one University.
...yet we have millions of Indians working across the globe in junior to senior roles everywhere. Clearly shows that you don't need a top 200 university to do well in the working world.
@@Bharat_P My counterparts from top Universities were earning double my salary.
One foreigner remarked once that Indians are International beggars.
In the Middle East countries, there were incidents of the local people spitting on the face of Indians working there. There are 8 lakhs of illegal Indians in America.
South Korea has 67% graduates while India has 20%.
Global Poverty Index India is ranked 111, while China who shares our border is 5.
The Literacy Percent of India is 77%, South Africa 95%, China 97%, Canada 100%, Ukraine 100%.
The GDP of China is 5 times bigger than India.
If not blind We can see by naked eyes about the development in India, with roads, airports and other infrastructure, investment of other nations etc..
He is correct. Modi and Sitharaman is misleading all middle class
Mobile manufacturers will pay minimum wages as they are assembly plants and most of the phones will be sold only in India.
Azerbaijan recently said Indian defence exports to Armenia are of poor quality which will not win wars for Armenia, this is enough to tell us about the great hype of Make in India.
BJP not take people's problems,they only religious politics .Peoples understand that one sir
Common man who earns around Rs 50,000 per month is in a bad shape
Not enough even to buy a decent house in our cities
telling false data is like riding a tiger. soon enough the tiger will eat you
Tiger won’t eat the politicians, will eat the common people
life has become very expensive becoz of gst on many items at irrational levels
Wow www
Why Sir, are you casting pearls before swine? The educated masses in this country, who will comprehend your message, are a micro minority.
The majority are the plebians who are chanting "Aye ga to Modi" and "Aur ek baar Modi Sarkar".
The majority of the electorate is not going to be swayed by your expose.
What's the point Sir? Why are we even trying to bring upon a change when the outcome is written on the wall?!
What about the IMF predictions 6.7
Pretty good, apologies
Sirji. People know what is real n will accept my answer is no will suffer more..... Wait n see very bad Days r ahead......
The look for 2024 is not good for economy, would be in recession, if not meltdown...
Delhi per capita GDP is 3x Bharat’s per capita GDP, so logically Delhi people will eat 3x of what average Bharatiya eats 😂😂😂
Phenomenal logic !
Gdp calculations are political different nations use different parameters. Since it is accepted world over that our country Under Modiji is growing over 7% that is best in the world. Now opinion is political the pri congress or leftist woll talk against general opinion!
Actually India gdp is less than 2 billion
Viswaguru prachar me ..population me,
Noting new same rona Dona which was same even 35 to 40 years before.
Why the property is running in crores no middle class can buy now if the economy is so bad?