The North Korean Disaster
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- Опубліковано 8 чер 2024
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The North Korean Disaster
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Video Producers:
Oliver Franke
Charles Street
Research & Writing:
Emanuele Martinelli, Oliver Franke
Edit & Animations:
Timothy Simpson
Source list:
docs.google.com/document/d/1U...
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Other than leaking military secrets 😂
What do I think? I think the CCP will collapse shortly before Kim is overthrown. It is well within the realm of probability that mainland China will suffer yet another series of civil wars. The mismanagement and corruption of the authoritarian regime in Beijing and the burgeoning poverty of the masses have only been exacerbated by the CCP virus, Covid-19. The heavy handed treatment of the population, even before the June 4 1989 massacre at Tiananmen Square. In addition is the political rival factions with the PLA and the CCP each vying for control of 1.3 billion people. Have all pushed together forming a perfect storm of revolution. The situation is a veritable powder keg of anger and discontent.
The only thing the CCP can do to prevent is 1) work together, 2) expand their borders to absorb the resources of other countries. The Kim dynasty will not last long without their support. I fully expect that the Kim family will resort to war with SoKo to keep their military and civilian population preoccupied and unable to plot their overthrow. I suspect that we will see the collapse of the CCP before 2049. (God willing.)
Thanks for sharing with us!
Does WarThunder contract you to use the pin comment for their advertising?
That's cheesy when a sponsor does that.
Russia also then
If NK were to collapse, the Chinese will try their best to occupy NK in the name of securing its border from refugees, securing the nuclear weapons and providing aid. But once Chinese get into NK, they would not leave anytime soon. So it would be important for SK to have a plan in place to be the prime stabilizing force. The Korean peninsula secretly might be more important to China than Taiwan - for many reasons. Just look at a map to get an idea why China is so interested in absorbing the Korean peninsula the way they took over Tibet.
Not gonna lie, a Chinese takeover seems much more peaceful than a South Korean/US one. You just know the takeover would be completely motivated by huge conglomerates like Samsung trying their best to enslave North Koreans and directly own the entire region. However, like you said, I wouldn't think the Chinese would allow unification, at least until the US stops puppeting South Korea.
If what we care here is giving the North Koreans a voice and power to decide their fate, I bet my money they would choose China in a heartbeat. The PRC, in theory, has the ability to handle this transition better than anyone.
You mean like the Poo-SA occupying S. Korea?
south korea is just as important to Japan as it is to China. and Japan is strategically important to the US, so they would do anything to defend it.
The U.S. and South Korea will completely occupy North Korea if (or when) it collapses, preventing any belligerent force from getting in.
@@stormshadow5283 Busan?
IMO, North Korea’s best hope of transforming its economy in the event of the collapse of the Kim regime is to employ a limited release of a series of free economic zones, like what Deng XiaoPing did for China. This would allow one city at a time transition to capitalism while also allowing the central government to keep a hand on the wheel. This would also prevent the economy from tanking and give time for sustainable growth to take root.
The north has private markets. It just works slightly differently. They opened up private, licenced markets since their big famine. They also take on a lot of contract work from china. It was discovered that Armani jackets were being made in North Korea, outsourced by a Chinese factory. All of this money is not shared with the people however. Capitalism is used in the examples above, but only to the benefit of the ruling class. The broader application of capitalism isn't really the answer, it's more the redistribution of wealth among the citizens. You could open up to capitalism more but you'd still get the same issue, it would end up in the coffers of the very elite and then probably be spent on vanity projects, nuclear weapons or other luxuries like mercedes cars.
Reading a really interesting book about this by a North Korea scholar and he talks about this. The problem with the China model is the regime couldn’t easily liberalize without a massive risk of collapse.
China didn’t have a super prosperous “south China” on its border that the citizens could compare with. Japan and South Korea were too different culturally. Whereas if North Korea opened up economically, knowledge of how prosperous South Korea is would rapidly diffuse throughout the society and the people would be unlikely to tolerate a slow liberalization. They would demand to rejoin the south and more quickly integrate the economy.
Hence, the regime is trapped. If it does not liberalize it constantly teeters on the edge of bankruptcy and famine. It has to keep doing black market activity and black mail. If it liberalizes the economy will grow but the regime itself will probably collapse, and many in leadership will literally be in danger.
The book is “The Real North Korea” - super interesting.
@@morgjones13there isn’t enough wealth to redistribute. The elite lives well off by North Korean standards but hardy wealthy by western standards (except a very few). There aren’t even enough rations for everyone. Hence the informal and black market is tolerated.
@@morgjones13 cope
Once N. Korea's regime falls, there would be no need for finding markets as there would be no more embargo against a collapsed state. The real problem is integration of the Northern population into a caplitalist world. Also, free economic zones were necessary because China was a backwards communist economy. In fact, for the most part, they still are. They just have hypocritical free trade zones here and there.
The technological marvel of South Korea compared to North will truly make the reunification for a lot of North Koreans like time travel. It's interesting to hear about the proposed cost of reunification for South Korea, and I hope they figure out a feasible plan to avoid bringing both countries back several steps economically.
Most of all, let us all hope we get to see the day this happens.
unfortunately NK has decided that reunification is impossible by changing their policy towards SK just a few days ago , torn down most of the building and association that would be needed for the reunification
@@kyrillgaming8089 NK's stance doesn't matter. This is in the event that the North completely collapses.
I had the pleasure to talk to someone that got out of NK. I am in America, have friends in SK. The NK was living with my friends and I got to talk to them over a period of time. Just the fact they could talk to me on the other side of the world in real time was mind blowing to them. Casual tech is considered a huge upgrade for them and our truly high end tech is sci fi to them. A cell phone is a huge upgrade, a smart phone is this sci fi thing they couldn't conceive of. It takes a lot of time for them to catch up. You also have to get them up to speed slowly or you overload them.
thing is, if anything the only economy that will be brought down several steps would be SK's.
If Korea were to unify. It would make sense to maintain strict immigration limits to avoid a complete disaster in terms of excess immigration and the problem of dying towns and villages in the North. It would be preferable to raise the living standards of those in the North and provide jobs encouraging them not to move en masse. Integration should be a gradual process. Just being able to see South Korea on TV would be a big enough shock. Family and cultural ties are very important and should not be incentivized to be discarded.
Need a huge aide package for years to keep people there for sure.
yeah they should avoid the hurtles we faced when east and west Germany united. The funny thing is most expected the west to have like free cars waiting for them so they all just went west the moment the wall fell. Only the people in the "Tal der Ahnungslosen" translated as "Valley of the Oblivious" aka the people who were out of reach of west german TV didn't care...
South and North Korea however are even further apart.... so who knows.
I just think to restrict free movement and migration could lead to a feeling of a "new regime" instead of freedom...
it's a tricky situation...
google gold and diamond global resources@@PaulVoas
Probably similar to the fall of the iron curtain and reunion of Germany
The threat of China moving weapons, narcotics, and terrorists thru an uncontrolled ex-North Korea would be serious.
The German reunification is an interesting model. It has been done, at great cost, and certainly not without problems, some that still remain now 30+ years later. The previous border is still clearly visible in statistical, economic and cultural maps. The issues are similar for Korea, only worse.
The cross border differences are much larger, and have been for a longer time. And you have the added complication of nukes and China, where East Germany didn't have the same level of threats within or east of it at the time. So no surprise that the general view in South Korea (as far as I've read) is that reunification should happen, only not now. Preferably at an unspecified point in the future. It's too costly and difficult for it to be desirable right now, whenever "now" is. But that is of course moot if North Korea collapses, then the issue is forced.
Indeed, interesting model. It also clearly shows that no "reunification" actually happened. West Germany took over East Germany, the two countries did not unify, one simply ceased to exist. East Germans were completely left behind with no option other than migrating to West Germany, where a functional country still existed. Hence the cross border differences.
If this were to happen to North Korea, it would be 1000x more pronounced. Imagine the mass enslavement and dystopia that Samsung and others conglomerates would unleash on the North Koreans.
East Germany wasn’t a communist family dynasty. And the difference between East Germany and North Korea are massive. East Germany was at its time the communist country with the highest living standards in the entire world. And it still costed West Germany more than 2 trillion dollars to "rebuild“ East Germany after reunification. A Korean reunification would break South Korea in my opinion…
@@TheDanorte "Reunification" is the common term for these things, but you're of course right that it isn't a merger of two ruling systems. One disappears and the other takes over, indeed. I bet "enslavement" under Samsung is still preferable to enslavement under Kim, but it would definitely be a gigantic problem for any SK government to tackle.
@@Tobi-ln9xr Yes, it's a far bigger problem. "would break South Korea" - a very real danger. Japan, USA and others might be convinced to help a little, with a kind-of Marshall plan. Regardless, if NK collapsed, SK would still try to absorb it as much as they could. Despite the extreme cost, I bet they prefer it to letting another NK group eventually take power, or China grabbing all of it.
why should south want to reintegrate the north koreans?
Insane that they spend a billion dollars annually on a department that is essentially just an idea at this point
The closest example of what a reunification would look like is east and west Germany, and considering east Germany is still behind in various equality metrics to the west, it's not going to be easy.
Matter of fact I feel like it's going to be impossible to ever unify them. Their cultures have shifted so dramatically, and north korea is significantly behind south korea (theres a far greater gap than there ever was for germany).
1:04 At the time of that speech, there weren’t cracks showing in the Berlin Wall. The East German government still remained on its track and also was the only communist country which didn’t implement political reforms. That Reagan speech is a bit overused among English speaking UA-camrs. (Overused because of the fact that he didn’t seem to understand that the leader of East Germany planned and built the Berlin Wall and also knocked it down in 1989)
They didn't do anything without Moscow approval, period.
@@buyallmeans425
No, that’s incorrect. That’s why you need to inform yourself. The "puppet states“ of the Warsaw pact were relatively independent. Some sources even say that Khrushchev was against the construction of the Berlin Wall because he feared the reaction of the West and an escalation of the tensions. The Soviets were also against East German Stasi infiltrations into the West German government. Brezhnev was even outraged when the Stasi spying in the West German government and the so called "Guillaume crisis“ led to the toppling of the West German government of Willy Brandt. Because Brandt was very friendly and open towards the eastern bloc, acknowledged the existence of East Germany and established trade agreements with the USSR and Poland which no West German leader had done before him. East Germany was also, as I wrote before, the only country of the eastern bloc which didn’t implement the perestroika and glasnost reforms. The only condition the USSR had when it ended the occupation of East Germany in 1949 was, that a communist government had to stay in place.
@@Tobi-ln9xr "the only thing Russia requires is a communist government stay in place" hmmm... So you're saying East Germany could do anything without Russia interference as long as a government they approved of is in place. That sounds like a massive amount of control right there. You must be young... Very shallow on your analysis. All money flowed to Moscow and Moscow gave a portion back as they saw fit.
I think with the population growing smaller and smaller in South Korea will make the reunification of North Korea more and more necessary for the South to stabilize the population and stay at the top of worlds economies
In order for unification china has to agree which would mean compromises like kicking us bases off of a possibly unified korea and make it completely neutral
That’s what I was thinking. If they were to reunify it’s likely the NK would become the dominant political force because they would simply outnumber the SK eventually.
@@flaneur1917Having "outsiders" with a low educational level to take over your country doesn't seem appealing.
why would nk have a depressed aging population to add to its own? why would they? get real
if they wait 30 more years half of south korean population will be dead
@@flaneur1917That’s what the north is banking on. Times are “good” all things considered for North Korea right now. It’s the first time in 3 generations where they have products their partners need (artillery shells, military production capacity). They have it to spare. They’re gonna milk it for everything it’s worth. If they can keep up the north rates and in South Korea self implodes eventually North Korea could start leaning on the south. It’s military threats wouldn’t look so empty. We’re taking decades down the line but the trend is there…it’s not impossible.
Re-uniting Germany was already bad and has left huge scars that are felt to this day. And Germany was only split for 30 years. A Unified korea will have massive problems if they don´t plan everything to the detail. But it´s good to see that they do so.
Germany was Split for 41 Years, from 7.October 1949 until the Official Reunification date 3 October 1990. But the Rest is correct, a unified Korea will have a big Problem.
Set up a transition government in the North. One that is planned to re-integrate with South Korea after stabilizing the region. North Koreans will slowly get used to democracy, South Korea can decide the speed of integration depending on how successful or unsuccessful programs pan out to be. OBF would probably agree with me and say the lack of infrastructure has to be part of initial efforts alongside humanitarian aid.
I agree this should happen but the regime leadership sees it as way too risky. They don’t want to end up in prison. If the people of NK realize how much better life is in the south they’ll be unlikely to tolerate a slow transition.
Source: really interesting book by an NK Scholar. The Real North Korea.
That was originally the idea with Germany. It lasted a year.
sounds like youre asking ther cia to plan another coup in a foreign country to provoke civil unrest, aint we sick and tired of that shit?
nk has more democracy than the usa, go google it
China will invade because no big global player can accept an unaligned global player at their borders. SK is allied with the US. The only reason why SK and NK exist is because China enforced a buffer zone. If SK re-integrates NK the buffer zone is gone. That means the US can build military installations directly at the border to China. China will evade long before the first stone is moved for such an military installation.
At least they get to see the stars at night.
no bad air
no depressing school system
no depressing job market
no depressing housing market
no gmo food
no drunk american militry boys assaulting your sister
no fucking ads everywhere
One thing to point out here. A unified Korea is something China and Russia doesn't want to happened. Be it from the South or the North. If it from the North, Japan also doesn't want it to happen.
It’s not like South Korea would be funding this alone.
Focusing on the economic cost of the reunification is a red herring.
The cost of not reunifying is far greater, not just economic but the spiritual psychological cost of dividing up a family into an eternal state of hostility wasting tremendous amount of human and material resources getting ready for a war that never ended. Being divided also make both NK and SK puppets to greater powers which they need to get out of. NK men serving 10 years in the army and NK women serving 6 years is a tremendous economic waste that never gets calculated into the cost equation. Think about how many young SK men have to put their prime years of skill/talent development on hold to go to the military. Korea's greatest resource is it's human talent. Th state of being divided cause a lot of human resources to be squandered.
If you're aware of the migration crisis in Europe, the potential North Korean situation may pose even greater challenges. The South might have to accommodate a larger number of migrants with potentially weaker self-sufficiency.
The optimal approach for them is to guard the border. The more North Koreans who survive, the greater the burden South Korea will have to bear for years.
@@knowledgenews5343 "The more North Koreans who survive, the greater the burden South Korea will have to bear for years." ??? Do you not value human life or something?
@@Bob13454 He probably doesn't. Anyone who complains about the migration "crisis" in Europe is hardly capable of valuing the life of foreigners, especially those from a less well off nation.
Despite the massive upfront costs, once reunification was complete and North Korea is being modernized, the massive jump in available workers, resources, and available land would be a huge economic boon for the now unified country. Over the coming decades, it would likely pay for itself. That's assuming a major war doesn't break out because of it.
modernized? they have spaceships, south korea doesnt.
@@ohhi5237 Except South Korea does have spaceships. And just look at every other technology that South Korea has that North Korea doesn’t. It’s pretty clear that North Korea is decades behind technologically and socially. Just because they may “have” a technology doesn’t mean it’s deployed en masse to the population.
@@Starspiker They dont have a technology. US and EU have it, and lease it to SK. Everything that NK has now is its own development however.
0:00 if only north koreans know and understand this image
screw light polution
@@somedesertdude1308yea, at least they can see the milkyway
@@J.J.G991 yes
if only u could learn the history of Korea, u will understand that image!
@@jorgesaopedrotankie? 😂😂
South Korea is one of the most beautiful countries that I’ve been to. The whole time that I was there, I thought how oppressive it has to be for the North.
While I appreciate your POV, economically speaking I think this piece completely missed the mark for a few key reasons. 1) the cost of military would dramatically lessen in the event of a NK collapse. The low skilled labour of refugees uplifts gdp drastically more than higher wages based on productivity. For construction, language teachers, social workers, police, fire departments, all those great middle class jobs will see a surge of demand boosting s Korean incomes as an effect of the debt incurred absorbing the NK refugees. That's good debt to have: construction, infrastructure, education, and basic needs consumption are huge boons to established economies because the system is already built and refined to train and expand these positions. It's nothing like starting a new country from scratch where everyone stands still waiting for a constitution and utilities.
It would be a shock to the south Korean system for sure, and there would be debt, but for anyone who knows anything about chasing value that's the best debt to own - sovreign with guaranteed growth if consumer base and labourers who would feel rich working like livestock for minimum wage because freedom would be a new statutory benefit they would've sold a child for prior to reunification.
I would love to invest in South Korean bonds in the event of a unified Korea, that'd be the easiest 12% 20-yr yield I'd ever find in my lifetime.
04:18 is the Filipino Army 2nd infantry division
beautiful editing
Risk of Conflict is very high in the Region, two conflicting Superpowers.........
Thanks for the News OBF!
The absolute proof that the world's governing bodies care literally nothing about basic human rights.
What do you mean? When NK had its food shortages in the 90s, the world sent food. Before the Korean War, the North had all the heavy industry, and the South was farmland. It is the Kim family who are holding NK back, by building Nukes, threatening America and Japan with those Nukes and pretty much rejecting any sort of diplomatic talks. America, Sth Korea, Europe and the UN have tried for 70 years to have real dialogue with NK, but NK always walks away.
Plot twist.
North Korea never managed to make nukes. They just acquired every nuke that's ever been lost by another nation.
Great video but the title made me thought it would involve current plans of foreign governments trying to topple NK. A better title would be The Plan For After North Korea’s Collapse.
It does. Where do you think all these billions are going?
At least they don't have light pollution, all the world now craves for this type of sky
i think they have less pollution in general
You Could go to Alaska for that.
@@trickyd499 More. China is a land of pollution, closer you get, more yellow the sky becomes.
On the issue of migration:
Something that might mitigate that issue (and thus make reunification genuinely sustainable) is South Korea's population flocking to Seoul? I've seen that be brought up a few times and hyper urbanization, so reunification could potentially save rural South Korea.
That actually is a huge problem and why the birth rates are so low. The more urban your population the lower the birth rates due to the smaller size of homes and cost of those areas.
Love the videos, man. Keep it up!!!
Very well done, Thank you.
Aside from geopolitical deliberations - I feel like if it were to come to a reunification scenario with North Korea, there wouldn’t just be dangers and problems, but also opportunities and the chance to learn from the mistakes Germany did during their reunification.
Yes, the difference between the two Germanys wasn’t as vast as it is between the two Koreas now. Still, there will be similarities.
Our reunification wasn’t uncontroversial either. But we still did it peacefully.
There were and continue to be some problems though.
Many people from Eastern Germany became unemployed because most of their factories where either closed, sold or even disassembled (even though that wasn’t necessary). This continues to perpetuate economic differences between west and east, and still leads to many young people from East Germany to move to the West to find better paid work.
Also, most of the land, buildings etc. where bought up by West Germans. East Germans own very little, and still have lower pensions and wages compared to the rest of us. Inequality such as this leads to them being more critical of the government, turning to the right wing and being one of the oldest places in the world.
There where huge infrastructural challenges as well, many streets where in desperate need of repair, lots of coal ovens, which the west didn’t use and even lots of rivers needed to be cleaned up.
Not to mention the internal mood of distrust, as many East Germans were surveilled by neighbours, close friends, partners etc. (we still talk of Stasi-methods to describe surveillance and oppression).
But: our infrastructural challenges were addressed with a solidarity tax that richer people had to pay (it worked really well) and West Germany profited from an influx of young workers. We would have aged much faster, if we didn’t reunify. South Korea is famously one of the oldest countries in the world and could profit the same way (with less exploitation). Increasing the work force is beneficial to the economy.
We need more intros like this at 0:55
Good video man thank you
The alternative is that they follow the Chinese model whereby they maintain control but allow free enterprise.
The background music in the last part is far too loud. I can barely keep listening.
It's funny how people think this will be a burden for the SK economy, when it would add millions of new workers and thousands of square km of new land to south korea.
sk is dying, nk is triving
don't forget about China.
they are not gonna like that South Korea is close to their border.
@@ohhi5237If you think NK is thriving you haven't been paying attention.
@@jeremyd1869 At least they army and economy are strong enough to keep itself in same position in the world. But american overlords are not happy with south korea performance, they need a new industry gigant, to keep their economy growing.
For these pepole the expierience must be overwhelming, it's like time travel into the future 50 years or more...
I pray for the future of North Korea, that the reunification would happen, and that all will be freed from the Kim regime.
I hope S. Korea is freed from the Global American Empire. I pray that S. Koreans be free of the dystopian dysfunctional culture brought about by the American occupation that has led to many to self deletion.
@@stormshadow5283that’s funny you say that considering that South Koreans literally live much better lives than the terrorists North Koreans and it’s funny you think that South Korea is a dysfunctional dystopia when in reality it is North Korea that is the dysfunctional dystopia.
@@stormshadow5283I agree SK sucks but at least they can immigrate to other countries once in SK.
It was the US that stopped the peaceful reunification of Korea when it refused to act in good faith and begin a trilateral disarmement of the Korean peninsula. The continued occupation of South Korea and the US' largest overseas military base are far more valuable to the US than ending hostilities on the peninsula.
Men! What a crap life it must be for a Korean whether he is from the North, the South, the East, the Overt, the Center, the Oblique or the Zig Zag, Born in Korea is really shit!
North Korea is that one friend who spends all his money with weapons, leaving nothing for hp potions and other stuff.
no nukes? you get invaded
Personally I think there needs to be an official partition of Korea. If they end the competing claims of sovereignty then it would end any risk of invasion from either side. Just let them develop separately and not cause political and economic instability.
More people are thinking this but afraid to admit it. They've been 2 radically different countries for for decades: the cultural split became permanent around the 1988 summer olympics. Even their biologies are diverging. The only thing common is the Korean language, but you can still have two different coexisting nations with different identities but still have the same language.
@@JoffreyKimbotay even the languages are diverging... When new inventions come about Korea uses foreign root-words to name/describe stuff. South Korea has words with english root-words whereas the North uses russian root-words.
@@pit5000 I think the earliest time when they would become 2 official states living side by side will be when the 4th generation is born with no memory of a unified peninsula or the war. So probably when those born in the 2000's take over leadership, they will literally have no idea why there's still this "cease fire" and even why they need to unite in the first place. There will be no emotional vestment in unification. It's sad but there are many other nations in history that split, merge, etc due to the tides of history.
I would argue that unification would not be burden but a boon as the cheap labour and resources that is needed will be available and more markets will open up and more land and population collapase can be mitigated.
Other thing is that south korea would like to keep nucleur weapons and that could be a problem.
China could fund a militia to fight americans.
Hearing all the problems it is a wonder that ussr went out so quietly with nuclear weapons.
And why is citations list is said to be coming soon.
south korea has no more resources to share, water land housing school food roads, its all FULL, people are fleeing
Background music or rhythmic noise should be in the BACKGROUND: much softer than the narration. Around 11:00, it seems you forgot that.
China being China would probably ask for a written agreement from Korea and US on not intervening during a future Taiwan unification should they sign off on the Korean one.
Thank you.
South Korea doesn't have to house or integrate any of them. It can defend its border just as much as now.
Fun fact, if you’re worried about South Korea, receiving 3 million refugees, America has received 6.7 million refugees over the past three years ….
Fun fact: South Korea is about the size of Indiana lol. Three million refugees arriving in South Korea would be exponentially more challenging than ten million arriving in the US.
Travelling through South Korea, living with local people, I was shocked by the unexpected and widely spread poverty.
South Koreans are certainly not as poor and dominated as North Koreans are. Nevertheless, for the vast majority, their lifestyle is appalling. The miracle in Seoul is just for a few Gangnam yuppies, you should not look at GDP if you want to understand the country.
Stuck between slums, mega-suburbs, and terrible American casino chic, people are taking the West as a reference point when they are assessing themselves. They live culturally uprooted, and of course they can't be on par. You easily understand why they don't have kids anymore.
This country is still bleeding from the Korean War wounds, it is simply a terrible place to live in.
The video sounds like it's some of the very first videos ever published by you...
always glad to find out there's a plan 😎
i thenk the mental aspect would change if the north collapsed as low paying people wont be competeing against defectors as there would be a nationwide movement going on to quickly unify the entire country and start bringing the north upto speed and making quick haste to absord its industry,resources and military. The job market floodgates would open as massive modernization projects would be everywhere, including building new housing etc there wont be a lack of work for many decades plus the inpour of money from un aid would help. Almost overnight whatever animosity others held for defectors would be gone because everyone will see that this regime no longer exist we are no longer a divided nation we are one and you are our citizens once again.
Just me, myself, and thousands of international relations experts 😌
😂 so true!
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
getting close c’mon!
At the start above nk is also dark
I’m surprised you didn’t mention German unification as an example
He did
For about 5 seconds
No one cares about germany
This famous satellite image is not untrue, but still a bit edited.
Is the reunification monument destroyed now?
robert o’neill is ready for his next deployment
China's reaction to a collapsible of NK is the big question. China would definitely want security and a non threatening unified Korea.
Under Chinese dominion
Then they would proclaim that korea is part of china, force them to learn chinese, and move millions of han chinese population to korea to make them chinese.
Just like they did to cough tibe cough.
How are you going to do a reunification episode on North and South Korea and not talk about the reunification of Germany in 1990?? I know the difference are not as stark, but not mentioning this important time in global history and German history is doing this subject a serious disservice.
Why are we assuming they all would just mirgate after it's over?
If it's over and people that actually some what care are in power now. They no longer would need to fear living in North Korea because North Korea's rules would be changed to the new rules of China or South Korea's rules.
Also, South Korean or Chinese businesses and the other commodities that would want to move their because it now a friendly and untapped market that benefits the natives as well.
So, I don't understand why they would need to migrate, when they are already living off food and other stuff now. They would just get more access to food and resources from their new country and from the international markets as well.
because that rarely happens when there’s a power vacuum, civil wars usually occur
They’d want to go somewhere with money? And a better way of life? You’re acting as if the country would be able to develop overnight if the government collapsed. Obviously not everyone would leave but even a small percentage would constitute millions.
In today's world, N. Korea would be more likely to get into a nuclear war with S. Korea and the US than collapse. N. Korea's economy is improving now that they and Russia have significant trade relations. Russia has lots of oil, gas, grain/food to trade for N. Korea's 152mm ammo and missiles. With massive imports of oil/gas many of those now dark cities will be lite up at night. Massive food imports from Russia will also end hunger when N. Korean crops fail from bad weather. And China will invest and build infrastructure, pipelines for the gas from Russia, power plants to burn the gas. Oil refineries to use the oil to make all sorts of products.
Me plying Warthunder while watching this xD The Snail will get you too!
This video can be summed up with "duh"
The night map of North Korea showed that they probably had a small carbon footprint compared to the South.
So this is what it like being early...
(I dont know what to comment)
I pray that the North Korean people will be free from the Kim Regime. I pray that they one day know freedom.
At this rate one has to ask if North Korea will ever be free and be able to have their own nation not controlled by China or Russia, if the regime ever collapses.
They already do. Called North Korea. After collapse it will become occupied land, full of people needed to be "reformed" to become "proper koreans" instead of being themselves. How is this freedom?
The South should tell the North that when the North Korean Regime falls, they will send food, medical and other assistance. This will cause the people of the North to remove the Regime.
4:37 ⚠️⚠️ Typo here : OPLAN 5015 not 5029
How will the people migrate south... across one of the most fortified borders with lots of landmines? How?
Why not setup two economic zones? One in the North and another in the South. People can freely travel between each zone, but cannot work in the other. North Korean's could only access the South's job market if they have a certain set of skills or a certain level of income (entrepreneurs). The North would be propped up with a series of state sponsored schools that would help educate the North. Everyone in the North would have a certain level of income support to avoid mass starvation. This would be a temporary measure until the North reaches a certain threshold where the majority of the population are able to support themselves.
In-between all this the South would be able to access a relatively cheaper work force and the North's natural resources.
What's the point of preventing Northerners from working in the South? There would be unrealized gains to trade. Also, that kind of arrangement is probably not legally realistic. South Korea views Northerners as its own citizens so denying them their rights in the South would be too awkward to implement.
It is important to note that no state, no matter how successful, has ever existed forever. This is especially true for authoritarian states and dynasties.
I equate the collapse of a state to the collapse of submarine's pressure hull: Perhaps some creaking, but ultimately a lot of nothing. And then, all at once.
escapes fron nk to south, gets depression. there are no good guys or good sides
Russia is also another factor left out. They have huge oil claims over Asian territories of Siberia and Sakhalin. Western Russia has always been West of the Volga River never East.
It wasn’t until the power and decline of the Mongolian Empire did these Slavic invaders decide to seize lands in vastly underpopulated regions within Siberia. But the Russians found that populating these regions with White Europeans wasn’t as easy as populations in Nordic areas.
They obviously came after the Ket, Mongolians, Koreans, and some Ainu tribes of Japan’s Hokkaido.
Chinese like Western Europeans of the Mediterranean do not enjoy freezing winter temperatures with gray cloudy skies year round like the Inuits, Déni, Mansi, Sakhalin, Finland’s Sami, Laplander, or Norwegian Asiatic Mongolians. They cannot deal with cold wet weather, they prefer mild temperatures like Southern Koreans, Turkish Tartars, Persians, Indians, Caucus regions people, or mainland Japanese, or Okinawans.
They hate cold weather unless they have Mongolian or Ket (Alaskan Eskimo) genetics.
The Chinese never divulge secrets either. Most of Manchuria is inhabited by nonHan Chinese. They are mostly Manchurian with Chinese, Russian Jewish, Russian Tartar, Turkish, other Central Asians, and Korean mixed blood.
The Asians know and understand but most white Europeans besides Russians, could careless because of the genetic features much as in the Middle East or Africa. To light skinned, light eyed people, dark haired brown eyed people all look dark and from warm regions but they are not. They like other ethnicities are different and have many differing cultures.
Somehow the idea that it’s because of China the two Koreas are divided forget, Kim IL Sung of North Korea received guarantees of weapons and ammunition from Stalin to proceed with the invasion, not Mao’s China. It was Chou En Lai of Communist China that raised the red flag over the UN’s interdiction within the Korean Peninsula. The Ccp were upset that North Korea went ahead with the invasion without properly asking Communist China first. Decidedly, the US under General MacArthur was willing to instigate a nuclear confrontation within the Asian continent without clearly realizing this would also involve the Soviet Union.
The Russians realize that by having a two front war would cripple its hold on Siberian territory they seized from Ching Dynasty China back in the days of Peter the Great, and then the 1800’s Romanovs Dynasty China had the numbers of military soldiers not the skills. The Russians fear that if North Korea or China were to fall, the West would encroach on Siberian territories and handicap Russia’s standing in Europe. The last time that occurred with the Russo Japanese War, the balance shifted and caused Germany to become involved in WWI.
Your video covers but a small part of the dimension of reunification problems.
Discounting Russia, Japan, the Iranians, and Central Asia is why instability causes larger conflicts. Big players have relationships with small players and North Korea’s leadership is immune to Western sanctions but the West also never realized its own faults adding to the problem. China’s proper role is as the pimp allowing drug, weapons, and human trafficking to happen freely on the Korean Peninsula without remorse or worries about any sanctions placed on them because in the Ccp’s view, it’s America’s problem and will always be because South Korea is view as a satellite province propped up by Native American genocide killers, and African Slave traders, hell bent on inflicting another century of humiliation on China after the Opium wars of the 19th century.
Reunification = Reunification tax for S Koreans
China will try it's best not totally loose N.Korea to SK & US. Sharing land border with an western ally is not China's interest. Russia will also be having share in NK affairs in that situation.
Overall it would be very difficult for West and SK to take on N. Korea politically.
In this situation a Transition Government might be the only solution, with both food and economic aid, making N.Korea gradually ready for the eventual reunification.
Garunteed the average North Korean doesn’t make 1800 a year it’s probably
Closer to 180 a year most said she earn 50 cents a day
Im more concerned with our own government than rocket boy.
저도요.
Please reduce the music while talking. It's quite hard to understand you at some points
One thing not mentioned is Samsung's position on reunification. Samsung is BY FAR the largest corporation in South Korea and is beyond integral to their economy and politics. By itself, Samsung would make or break any reunification effort. As to China, who knows how they would react. One would hope they would see the long term benefit to a rich trading partner next door. But probably, given the paranoia that all single party dictatorships seem to suffer from, they will likely see a unified Korea as a threat.
No. You obviously have no clue. Samsung doesn’t hold that much political power than you think, and the previous president from the left wing party literally put the chairman in jail for absolutely nothing. The left wing is always, and I mean ALWAYS trying to tear corporations like samsung down.
I LOVE LIGHT POLUTION!!!
GMO GMO GMO SCHOOLSHOOTING HAMBURGERS MURICA
And you like communism apparently
@@olg7483Yes, Communism > Democracy
@thanhkhoanguyen8197 you should go to north korea or communist China then if you really like it. Then you will see how much of a living hell it is.
@@thanhkhoanguyen8197 do us all a huge favor and go live in north korea if you like communism so much
crazy
Dude, fix your sound mixing.
Okay, so a disaster didn't recently occur in North Korea, and the video is about a hypothetical collapse. The title is misleading and needs to be changed.
So North-North korea?
Interesting, all things considered, continued hostile militarism between all parties is in no ones best interests, it’s tragic that a peaceful solution where everyone worked together to solve the many issues…
Can anyone provide info on who created intro music?
It’s an edited version of K.I.T.T. Vs. K.A.R.R by Ian Post
Thank you! @@TheTimtastic
Good video but you could tone down extending the last letter like: countryyyy, capacityyy, neccessityyyy
나는 모든 한국을 지지한다. 하나의 한국. 단일. 사랑. 존중.
네 korea = korea
This scenario poses several interesting questions.
Is there a non-military Chinese gov't agency responsible for this transition? What is its current status and funding?
If West Germany were 1 on the scale of social disruption and recovery expenditure, how would that compare to S. Koreans'' projected expenditure and stress? Everyone could learn many lessons from W. German efforts and mistakes at reunification.
What would be Japan's role? The Japanese could redeem many past sins against Korea by providing generous funding and on-the-ground support for this effort, and advertising as much. Modern, peaceful Japan to the rescue; versus Korea's monstrous memory of Imperial Japan.
Reunification funding will be extravagant. However, after the first few years, regional military expenditures should drop considerably, assuming China remains strategically passive in this theater. There will have to be a broad, de-militarized zone along the China's Korean border, subject to Chinese withdrawal with guarantees. The Chinese are allergic to strategic commitment in Korea, based on past disasters in this sphere.
What will the long term effects of this transition be on international military adventurism currently rabid and money-grubbing on both sides?
Have the Chinese and American militaries already agreed to a combined force to seize and neutralize Korean nuke assets expeditiously with 100% success (i.e. not at lethal cross-purpose)? I do not understand why this agreed force has not surgically decapitated Korean leadership and gotten on with the tasks ahead. I doubt if most N. Koreans would resist, any more than Vichy French forces resisted Allied invasion of N. Africa. A few shots, then "Where do I sign up with you guys"? I don't see Seoul being shelled flat for weeks, unless this intervention is seriously bungled. That would not surprise me, given Iraq War mismanagement by ignorant Repugnant ideologues, and Chinese taste for junkyard dogs (unstable failed states) on their borders.
More Chinese Fishing.
There would be no mass migration south as the NK's minefields are so extensive few would get through them.
There are ways. Trough countless fortifications and military checkpoints, constantly monitored from all sides.
Integration will be a fifty to seventy five year process. At least. Subsidies for some of the obsolete factories might be a good temporary solution. Indeed, some of those products might find niche markets.
It will never happen. There is only certain factories in korea that can profit. All of them are owned by south megacorporations. And it will always be like that, in the country of capital dictatorship.
Ideal: after the initial inevitable mass migration crisis, SK absorbs NK. China allows that with the promise of less or no American presence in SK. Nuclear weapons are disposed off (even thou some are unaccounted for during the scramble) as a part of the negotiation. I think SK could handle the integration better than Germany even with decades of indoctrination and cultural drift. Although some of the negatives are worse than East Germany, the Korean situation is better than the situation Germany had in other aspects.
They could create incentive zones centered around Pyongyang and maybe a couple of port cities turning them into new industrial zones which would change the focus of migration to these cities instead to Seoul. Some of the migrants would be directed to the depopulated SK rural towns. SK is the breadbasket of the peninsula traditionally, so they could work there with proper incentives. NK could focus on being the industrial heartland and resource extraction zone which could absorb most of the NK workforce. It does have industrial capacity even thou it is pretty outdated. Infrastructure investment would need to be quite large, but SK construction corporations are second to none. It could open up investment opportunities for everyone. As long SK economy can cope with such shock, maybe a second economic miracle can happen in Korea.
Cursed: SK only recovers up to Pyongyang district. China holds the districts near the northwest zone and put a puppet there and a small independent state in the northeast is controlled by a warlord who holds most of the nukes and he's crazier than the Kim family, blasting a small town near the new border as a threat. SK takes a huge hit economically handling their new NK territory which set back Korean economy for decades. Resentment among NKs and SKs may cause further divisions in politics. The new status quo is less predictable which makes USA, China, and Japan more wary of their geopolitical goals in the region.
absorbs, without nukes? without a million soldiers marching? get real
@@ohhi5237 maybe you should learn to read first, ideal = not necessarily realistic. I presented an ideal one and one cursed one. See no realistic one presented.
Anyway at this current scenario presented in the video, a mass migration crisis would happen first caused by a sudden fall of the Kim's regime. China will not march 1 million soldiers at Korean peninsula instantly. First they have to shore up the millions invading its border with humanitarian help, the border forces would be quite busy with that. Besides that, China army is probably around 2 millions strong. They can't mobilize 1 million just for that border. It's not WW2 mass zerg tactics anymore. That 2 million figure is for their whole fucking border which is really big. They could rapid secure the bordering districts for sure, but they probably can't go deep without causing WW3. They won't shoot American and SK forces.
Unless they already have prepared a puppet regime there to avoid the chaos in the first place, any force entering NK would be for stabilizing the falling state and secure the nukes, not for fighting each other. We weren't presented on how the Kim's exactly fall, so I'm assuming they just fell by themselves without SK/USA direct intervention. In this case every side is caught by surprise and enacting their plans for this eventuality which wouldn't involve immediate escalation.
@@ddwkc1. China would know better and quicker than anyone if North Korea were to collapse. They’d be the most prepared.
2. China wouldn’t require a million soldiers. They wouldn’t be fighting an active war, just securing vital locations and maintaining peace.
3. Chinese forces wouldn’t be openly opposed like the ones from South Korea. They have already built avenues into the country if an emergency were to occur. There are bridges between China and North Korea specifically built to facilitate the rapid transit of armoured vehicles into the country. Not only are there no crossing points in the DMZ, any force that crosses the southern border would have to contend with massive, active minefields, the remnants of the KPA, and a hostile local population. China could quickly secure the country, while it’s up in the air if the US and South Korea would even be able to interfere.
@@team3am149 Finally someone with healthy view on world. NK is the most hostile place on earth, if you arent their guest or ally. Chinese army is both.
@@team3am149 for the past 10 ~20 years, china has been teaching their students that north korea used to be part of chinese territory, claiming goguryeo and all the ancient kingdoms in history of korea used to be chinese and spoke chinese (nonsense), and trying to claim that korean culture is “chinese culture because it is from one of their 56 ethnic minorities” bs.
This doesn’t look like someone who just wants to “occupy” NK. It looks like they are building up justification to swallow NK (and possibly the entirely of korea) whole, and assimilate them.
Reunification of Germany didn't lead to a recession. All that investment would lead to a boom, I would guess. But, expensive, it would be
"Chic Ken" 😆
Benefits for both sides. Same thing that remains the same through history.
What does Yeonmi Park think of this analysis?