Is Trump losing? See why swing states are all ‘tied’ in Melber breakdown with Obama pollster
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- Опубліковано 22 вер 2024
- Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are statistically tied in every battleground state. Obama Pollster Cornell Belcher joins MSNBC’s Ari Melber. (Check out The Beat's playlist: msnbc.com/ari Connect with Ari Melber: / arimelber )
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#Trump #KamalaHarris #Politics
The idea that the race is even close makes me nuts.
It has been Predicted that Kamala Harris will win! Search Kamala Harris prediction.
Don’t nobody like Kamala.
@@johnward43 We love her. The problem is so many people are in his cult.
Ohhh poor Julie. Must be upsetting knowing not everyone gets brainwashed and lives in your own little reality
@@johnward43 She & Walz are the only two people to have been in the race where their favorable rating is above water. The facts disagree, my friend.
Barron: Sorry dad I’m voting for Kamala.
Melania: Me Too!!!
Melania: and I’m also filing for divorce
Because Trump feeds people’s anger
😂 that would be the ULTIMATE victory!
Melania: I love America buy this necklace merry Christmas 😂
It’s hard to understand why anyone would vote for trump when considering facts (not opinions). Some people think if you’re anti trump you are automatically a democrat - not true. But the Republican Party was hi jacked by MAGA and now they are stuck with trump.
Kamala thinks that her economic policy will help Americans, but the facts tell a different story. Under Harris, inflation has skyrocketed to 19%, mortgage rates are up 133 percent, and gas prices have increased 48.6%. We need economic policies that benefit the American people, not Kamala policies. I am placing my trust in President Trump because the alternative is a known disaster.
That’s easy - if you’re wealthy, Republicans (not only Trump) will give you tax cuts
I’m voting Trump for the win! 🏆
@@johnward43 Can you explain why ? With facts. Meanwhile, the stock market just set another record high.
@@BMinus0593 No, he can't, he's in a cult!
It boggles the mind that so many people in the country believe Trump is both good at running businesses or will help working class economically when there’s mountains of evidence proving the contrary. Its like saying Madoff would be good for the economy.
Propaganda thanks to Mark Burnett and Fox
I’m voting Trump for the win! I miss no inflation and affordable gas. 😮
@@Abraxas-o8v And they can’t tell you WHY they believe it.
@@johnward43 What is trump going to do specifically to reduce inflation and gas prices? Does he know why they went up ?
@johnward43
I know you don't process simple things.
The consequence of Covid was global inflation.
Inflation is reducing in America.
Trunp has only a concept of a plan.
The stock market Trump loves to boast about, has never been so good.
Trunp's solution to everything is racial - "They are eating the dog, they are eating the cats" , "build a wall", "China Virus".
Polls are a marketing tool. We have to accept that half this country supports a monster. We must get out to vote, period.
Harris Walz 2024 💙 🌊 🇺🇸
TRUMP2024
@@anthonywilson4181 Trump/Putin 2024. There fixed it for you.
Trump 🇺🇸💪🏽
@@susie-ws4ce Putin endorsed kamala, get your facts straight.
@@susie-ws4ce You did not fix it you just proved you do not have respect.
Please ignore the polls. They were wrong in 2016, 2020, and 2022. We only have 43 days until election day. Instead, do something to help get Kamala to win. Donate, volunteer, canvass, phone bank, text bank, write postcards, or do anything you can to help her.
And VOTE!
Exactly right. It's ridiculous to see so many blogging channels saying that Trump's rallies are failing, yet there are thousands attending them; constant poll watching even though all the polls were wrong so many times before; that the GOP is desperately trying this that and the other - maybe they are but he could still win so an all-out effort is needed not only for the national elections but also for state ones - even if Kamala wins, if Congress or Senate is held by the GOP, she will not be able to pass all the good stuff needed.
I should recieve my mail-in ballot any day. I'm excited!
I was thinking of donating but idk if it matters? What does donating do? I don’t plan to send much money but something is something ?
@@kaykeelan4712 Absolutely, which is why it's important to win both chambers, especially the Senate because it has the ability to confirm cabinet members, judges, and Supreme Court justices.
He is so right. There are many more moderates and liberals than MAGATs. HUGE turnout!!!!!! Please!
A "SUCKER" is someone who supported him in 2016.
A "LOSER" is someone who still does.
Trump - the Elmer Fudd of politics..
I’m voting Trump for the win over corrupt Democrats! 👍🏻
Weird you post this same comment on everything BOT….Trump is for the people
Brilliant comment!👏👏👏💙💙💙
@@patcomerford5596 guess they’re even highlighting all the Bots comments. UA-cam is Dem I guess
😂😂😂
I legitimately don't understand how any American could vote for Trump again after his entire embarrassing ordeal.
Racism… people are very racist
Because you have independent thinking ability still. Cults are group think, they literally cannot think for themselves in the same way we do. They have the capacity, just not in the state of conciousness the cult keeps them locked into.
What ordeal?
Because half of Americans are just like him.
It's a pattern amongst democrats " understanding "
The people should elect the president. Not the antiquated electoral college. it comes down to one or two states who choose. That’s not fair.
Absolutely unreal that the votes of folks outside the battleground states don't really "matter".... but we all still have to vote as if our lives depend on it! Vote Blue up and down your ballot!💙💙
And then let's get the Electoral College Dinosaur sent off to the museum where it belongs! 🦖
Do the points count in a football game that are scored in the first minutes of the game? Of course they do. Are they often the deciding points in the game? Not unless both offenses stayed home that day. But just because a last second field goal decides the game, it doesn't mean the first touchdown didn't matter.
Yeah, the EC is the worst form of first-past-the-post there is. Everyone's vote should count the same.
The EC, gerrymandering, and voter suppression are the only ways the GOP can win. They're adding a new wrinkle with the courts.
Ari you are a saviour. Thank you💙
Educating us who don't quite get it.
Who has ever taken a voter poll? I have never been polled.
We been poled plenty by the Democrats these last 3 1/2 years
Have you tried online dating?
Most polls are done by Robo-calling landlines - think about it. Only the oldest voters who still have landlines participate in these polls. Also, since 2016 over 20 million boomer voters have died while over 40 million new young voters have come of age to legally vote. So the tide is turning and most of these dumb polls use archaic methodology to determine their numbers.
I think they poll swing states. I live in a blue county in a red state and have never been polled for elections here. My phone number however is attached to a swing state in a swing county and I do poll calls for that area. I just tell them I moved and kept the number.
I receive texts but don't answer them. Will be voting BLUE!!!
Crazy times we live in 😭
Voting in states other than battlground states matters because we also vote for Senators and House Representatives. And Governors and State laws and State congresses.
In my 43 years I have not known anyone who has ever got a phone call from a polling company
Do the maths. Let's say there are 200k people polled politically every year in the US. That's 4k a week. Sounds about right. Ballpark, anyway. Let's say there are 200m adults in the US. So only 1 in 1000 people get polled in any given year. So if someone says "I've never been polled", that doesn't shouldn't surprise us at all.
Well, I get called at least 4 or 5 times a day from different polls. Sometimes I answer the poll, sometimes I just hang up, and sometimes I mess with the polling and give the opposite answer to every question just for kicks.
Literally got calls when I turned 18
And also when Biden was running I received a call from a polling place or whatever it is that was for joe Biden trying to talk me into voting for him 😂
55 years since I turned voting age. Never been polled and none of my family has either.
Mark Robinson will cost Trump North Carolina 🤣 HAHAHA
@@TFXRedHood No he won’t.
@@colinhughes4799 Says who...you?
@@equalityforall8418 Look I was brought up in a middle class are. I have dreams hopes aspirations. I’m gonna give away money. Talk bloohghhhhhhhjuu.
Kamala Harris for President.💙💙💙
Hope so, those two are repulsive. Voting BLUE!!!
20 years ago, that's the last time a Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote.
Hillary lost
And before that, 1988. A Republican has won the popular vote for POTUS one time in 35 years! Facts
Do you know how many times a President has been elected by the electoral college? Every time. That's how we elect Presidents in this country.
@@MICHAEL-vy3ch Every modern democracy has a system of inclusion. Electoral college is not democracy.
@@MICHAEL-vy3cha big mistake from the Founding Fathers.
Harris all the way ro the white house 💙💙💙💙
No thanks. Not a communist.
@@johnward43 You're being paid by them so what's the problem?
@@johnward43 We know you're a troll so you can go away now.
She has my vote
The name calling because people vote for Trump......wow.
I have so much anxiety about this election.
Take three deep breaths.
Que sera, sera.....
Why are there so many Russian MAGA trolls here?
They get paid!
Because they've been bought... you new? This is pretty common knowledge
@@Leonard-v1u … because Putin is pouring million$ into disrupting the US Election , yet again. Beware of the bots.
Seriously? Do you suffer from TDS? Vote Blue. 💙💙💙
Ukraine
Vote Blue up and down the ballot💙💙💙💙
I'm voting RED down the ticket
But if you’re not a communist, don’t.
The "underdog" mantra sounds like a Sun Tzu tactic in action. "Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant."
I’m one of many Republicans that I know who will be voting for Kamala Harris
So basically you’re one of this log cabin Republicans. We understand.
Did you vote before for trump? Vote Blue. 💙💙💙
@@johnward43 Oh Johnny, does mental health issues run in your family?
Californians for Trump 💪🏽🇺🇸
@@johnward43
You mean the one Melania got 750k from?
No More Hate & Division from Pumpkin Head & Judy Vance!
DT is at least losing his feeble mind!!😂😂😂😂😂
Trump has been exactly the same person for decades. Petty, small, mendacious, ignorant, offensive, self-centered, transactional, etc. Expecting him to suddenly change is insane.
it wouldn't be so worrisome if it weren't for the slavery era Electoral College that should have been abolished at the end of the Civil war... it has no place in this day and age and needs to go!
Agree.
Vote for kamala Harris and Tim waltz vote blue
Kamala takes life seriously ... trump, asking which putter ? 💙
Aren't Texas and Florida up for grabs too, tho? Both states are turning kinda blue.
Yeah, and Virginia and New York on the other side while election
I hope so, Texas here, voting BLUE!!!
@@GML_123. yr comment has a delusional tone
@@SIERRATREES you got a match their energy, my friends, such nonsense that Texas or Florida could turn blue.. hahah
@@GML_123. Its going that way, sorry to give you that piece of news. Although I get it, considering to you news is just what ever Trump says it is.
Can you imagine a world without trump? Im getting so freaking excited
Better to imagine one without Democrats. Now that would be a wonderful country of American patriots!
California had no republican control generations....is that what you are excited for to live like SF and LA?
Don’t rely on the polls please VOTE BLUE
what matters is to show up on Election Day. Polls, trend lines, and predictions should all be ignored if we understand history and as long as the Electoral College remains.
Why is it even close? I can’t understand why people would vote for that man
Do away with te electoral college and we wouldn't have all this problems.
Stop letting in millions of illegals into California and that might be possible.
Despite the fact that the electoral college has elected every President in US history.
@@MICHAEL-vy3ch And, it's been against the will of the people. The popular vote has been counter to the electoral college decisions many times. The electoral college is antiquated and has resulted in installing many incompetent men into the presidency. The last being Trump. It is undemocratic and so is anyone who supports it. Of course, we know that Russians and traitorous Russian/leaning republicans don't believe in democracy and would embrace a nonvoting solution a la Russia and Hungary and their faux elections.
@@MICHAEL-vy3ch That's not even a logical point. Of course the electoral college has, because that is the way the system works. But when you elect a president solely by electoral college even though they lose the vote by millions, you have a broken system. Getting rid of the electoral college is too difficult in the current environment, but if the majority of the states change their laws and make electoral votes divided up to match the states popular vote, then that problem will go away. But republican states will never do that, because they know the electoral college the only way they can win now.
Has anyone made a campaign ad, about Trump saying the stock market will crash if Biden and Harris are elected. Then show the stock market at an all time high of 42,000...
What is the point of the electoral college? Why does it exist?
It was created to pacify whiney Republicans who could never win a popular vote!
So every state has an equal vote in our federal government. No one wants 4 states to control the country.
Polls aren't votes. They are supposed to represent a trend, but Your Mileage May Vary. I've never had a car get the mileage promised for a car I bought, and the polls are often skewed. VOTE.
Texas and Florida for Harris 24. 🇺🇸
New York and Virginia for Trump!!
@@GML_123. You sound scared.
@@GML_123. unfortunately for you guys there are half a million voters of Haitian decent in Florida
@@GML_123. russian traitor fo
@@GML_123. he'll never flip New York......he's delusional
Do not feed the Trump trolls they are not here for good faith arguments, flag them and move on with your day.
Amen
I take exception to that comment. I always present myself for a good faith argument, and never turn to the trite troll comments until the other side starts blasting away with the "orange man bad" comments.
Typical democrats censoring comments.
@@MICHAEL-vy3ch your comment doesn’t sound like a good faith argument at all
(D)onkey Logic: "We need to support democracy by reporting and censoring the opposition"
Those of us who know the US well, perhaps (like me) having lived and worked in America in the past, watch shocked, incredulous, and amazed that a person such as Donald Trump remains so close to regaining the presidency.
I know they wanna be humble, but Mrs Harris is leading 5-6 points in both PA and MI by the highest rated pollsters.
Comrade Camela Enough of joy, hope, laughter BS,all that doesn’t pay the bills, No more celebrity interviews, flowery statements, how about real policies with real interviewers!!
Madame VP is definitely winning in PA, MI, and WI.
No it's not not tired Harris is in front and I'm getting tired of people saying it is
Don’t listen to the polls...just vote Blue u and down the ticket.
Our lives depend on it!
This guy said nothing most of the interview. Only when pressed, in the last seconds, did he say anything worthwhile at all that Harris would win if there is a very high turnout. Took forever to get to that.
I believe: Polls Don't Vote. Go Vote!!
Polls Are Wrong. Go Vote!!
Polls Ignore Newly Registered Swifties. Go Vote!!
Swifties: I wasn't picking on you. I believe you collectively have great power! I believe YOU can swing this election in more states than any news outlet gives you credit for! You could swing Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. I believe you could swing Texas and send Ted Cruz packing!! Use your united power, register, and GO VOTE!
Should’ve let Angry Cornell run with it and just take over the show he was spitting fire and straight facts. Was really annoying his analysis, too short tho!
“Donald Trump wins by subtraction…” I’ve never heard it put quite that way before, but man, it describes the GOP m.o. perfectly!
I have never once in 38 years of voting been polled. No one answers their cell phone anymore, and I didn't answer my home phone (when I had one) after 2000. Who gets polled?
I got polled four times this year. Because I live in Wisco. But never before.
Vote blue no matter what, even if she’s on track to win 538 electoral votes, get out to the ballots and vote. We cannot let 2016 happen again, there is too much at stake! We can do this if we vote!
I'm voting RED down the ticket
💩💩💩💩
Donald Trump is a man of renewed purpose, strong patriotism, and common sense and America-first values. While the Marxists rely on law fare, indoctrination, cheating, and violence to get votes, President Trump relies on sound policies to address the immigration and economic crises.
💩💩💩💩
Ever think a lot of us just don't respond to polls, a lot of us on the left who know how to ignore a call from an unknown number...or a text that is political....we ain't talking.
Think about it.
Well, he's not in the whitehouse! Yes, Trump is still a loser.
I know not everyone can, but I can separate policy differences and understand why Republicans may not wish to vote Democrat. It's about the man that Republicans have propped up as their Emperor. If Nikki Haley or even Ron DeSantis were the candidate and people wanted to vote for them I'd accept/understand that. This is about Donald Trump being completely unfit by any definition to lead our country, and I just hope enough people wake up to that fact to make a difference.
Big shout out to the electoral college 🎉🎉
America deserves better than the maga chaos that we’ve been subjected to. Vote blue in November! 🌊
You do realise you silly person your lot have been office the last for years. Tim Walz we can’t have another four years off this ha he was right. Trump 2024.
I wanted to try something so I re-registered as a democrat earlier this year after being different party for 14 years. I had not been polled since 2010, but behold, once I registered democrat I was polled three times. When they figured out I wasn’t picking their people, they stopped polling me. There’s the polls in a nutshell.
@@colinhughes4799 Vote republican
@@jimfoot-p7g I'm not registered with any party and have been asked to do polls about a dozen times.
@@jimfoot-p7g wish I could but I’m in the UK. Trust any Brits with a brain cell want Trump to win. No more War. Funding Ukraine Iran. Trump baby.
I don't think that your interpretation of 'within the margin of error' is correct...if Kamala is winning by 3percent and that is described as 'within the margin of error' then it could be that the result is tied....but equally probable, the result is +6 percent
Are they really tied? Maybe they need this perception to 'tip' the scale in the end.
So the polls you consider good are the ones that favor your candidate right?😂
Excellent, as always. Thank you..💚
The key point is that "margin of error" is just one standard deviation of the expected difference - it's not an absolute limit. That means that for any poll, there's about a 68% chance of the final result being within the poll's margin of error, and about a 95% chance of the final result being within double the margin of error. If the result isn't within the margin of error, the poll isn't "wrong" - this should happen to about 32% of all polls. That's just how statistics works.
Ari keeps looking at the 2020 polls then fails to acknowledge the 2022 midterms. Yeah 2020 results were a lot closer than predicted. 2022 was the opposite.
Kamala Harris President 2024.
We can't afford 4 more years of this
Tim walz
No they are not
States are all tied? Hmmmm… I don’t think so. Please move on.
Reality and fantasy are both within the margin of error.
Scamala would not be wanting another debate if she were ahead. She's losing.
Instead of "underdog" mantra oughta change to "barbecuing" dogs mantra.
Is Trump Losing??? He shouldn't even be able to run 😅 The fact that he's allowed to run, is already a win for him.
Why isn’t she up like 10 or 12 points?
I hate the Electoral College so much! It wouldn’t be this close without it! Every one make sure you vote and volunteer for the Kamala campaign if you have the time!! 💙👍🏼🇺🇸💙
As if Trump isn't bad enough, remember JD Vance would be a heartbeat away from potus
If Kammy was winning they woudn't be telling us that Trump is losing
Saying it's tied means you lied?
🤟 How to stop MAGA?
🌎 Boycott Tesla now!
You can practically smell the fear here.
America loves an under dog not but not a loser claiming to be a victim. Vote blue all of you! 💙💙💙💙💙
I legitimately don't understand how any American could vote for Cackling Kamala again after her entire embarrassing ordeal.
A story is a story u know a story its something u tell people about a story is a story is a story
Oprah is the last person we need endorsing Harris. She’s friends with Diddy and Epstein…not a good look!
Copium Maximmus.
Trump, Trump, Trump!!! Go Trump!!!!
Harris will say anything at this point. Judge by what people do not want they’re saying?
I don’t like either side
If you're the incumbent, and also the underdog, something went horribly wrong with your administration.
Make America Great Again Let's Vote Blue All The Way Down!
*Gypos, Prams, and Pegs!*
Some of these polls have a gap in them making the polls much slower then some of them haveing a big margin in the lead over the states
Vote 🗳 please 🙏 we really need Harris/waltz 2024
If you take a word these guys say seriously you just don't understand the concept of credibility. Whatever they say you can automatically rule out, definitely not the truth
Remember how there is not one source of MTG saying jewish space lasers? I do.
Oh that’s right, she must said lasers from space a few days after an anti Semitic group said it was the Jews 🙄
I know you’re probably a bot, but there are literal recordings.
@@cmckevittWOW There are recordings? I am not a bot and you have not one source to prove me wrong.
@@johnconnor1847 My bad there are no recordings, it was a Facebook post. I’ll throw the link in the comments.
@@cmckevitt You know that you can’t leave links on YT? The facebook post is where the lie was created from, you have that correct. And you just proved to me that MTG didn’t say it. Thank you!
Why haven't they released a photo of the Alabama shooter?
Because no one cares about Alabama or you'd worry about their cancer rates from industrial polluting.
I'm waiting to harris campaign to make a last minute swing through Florida
yeah is this the fact that Trump has already lost
And Harris ain’t black.
That's right. Can't predict the future. A Hurricane could be in Florida on Election day. What happens then?
That dude needs a girlfriend.