Living in Romania we always had a national adversity as a people towards Russians doing business with the EU but never had strong enough politicians to cross a clear border. Most Eastern European countries had ugly and bitter histories with Russia, we all saw this insanity coming since Crimea.
Not to mention that, no matter the money, certain partnerships are better never born. China and Russia cannot be trusted in any way, no matter how appealing the business looks.
@@spukyon As a Pole - West seen Russia in demo-like style. Russian propaganda focused on west made some Potiomkin's village image. We in the Eaest seen reality, but finally you see what we have seen all the time. Therefore I think this war is so supprisng West while this is somenthing we here knew it would happend, sooner or later. We are one family, Europeans, Americans. As on the Eest - some processing we just skipped behind the iron curtain. Same steps mayby unfortunately backwards, but I think only temporerary, since we - Poles at least - just want to be part of big West. What really made us ungry, what coused fued and current gavorment, is disrespect, and fear, that once again West would seek in Russia main partner on the East. Nord Stream's creating was for us pure evidance that threat is real. Good it change, only a pity in an Ukrainian expanse. They in dead have some serious problem forsaking Nazi's Bandera, but we have to both help them and demand form Ukraine to ban this genosiadial retoric.
@@maritaschweizer1117 they will need to be careful though... Northern European states (the "frugal" ones) may strengthen their bonds and create a "subset" community.
It wasn't obvious. These country have historical quarrels with Russia. Sure, it could mean they have a better understanding of their neighbour, but it could also means that they can't go past their historical fear. Sure, now they're right, but it wasn't granted. We should always be careful when looking at history with our modern eyes, we know what happened next, they didn't.
@@alioshax7797 these countries don’t have “historical quarrels”. They were dominated and ruled by Russians repeated in a brutal fashion. They know exactly what Russian rule is like and how Russians do business. They also are aware of how nothing changed. The USSR was as shitty as the Empire in terms of how it viewed people. With Putin being an agent of the USSR, and having a nostalgic love towards it, modern Russia clearly has not changed its mindset. Numerous experts pointed out that Russia isn’t trustworthy by pointing to Russia’s wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Crimea/Donbas.
@@alioshax7797 If you have a neighbour that threw rocks at your house for years, you don't exactly believe him when he promises not to do it again. That's why we never believed in Russian pseudo-pacifist approach.
@@dex6316 Don't forget political murders. But no, they do have a slight point, we Poles are pretty paranoid, and maybe our fears should be taken with a grain of salt, but then again if you see a dead body on a street, you're not going to try to convince yourself that it's just sleeping.
It is enough to recall what Polish President Lech Kaczyński said in 2008 in Georgia. Now Georgia, next Ukraine, then the Baltic countries and finally Poland. Eastern countries understood this, but not the West, which constantly petted Russia.
7:37 Romania hasn't been affected at all by the Russian gas cuts. In fact, we were the country importing the least amount of gas from Russia, at around 7-10%. If anything, the current energy crisis in Romania is actually caused by inflation and the companies pumping up the prices to get even bigger profits, although their production costs have been and will continue to be ridiculously low.
@@Pommelabricot4821 I'd be inclined to say PSD ie the social democrats are the leftist party. But really, they're just thieves, like all the others. I think it was PSD that was the most vocal about capping the MWh price and a law has just passed, but it seemed very poorly written to me and easily exploitable by the companies (as has already happened). And if that wasn't enough, there are growing cases of people receiving bills meant for someone else, bills with a price 10 times that of the real one, bills where their total consumption surpasses that of a fucking factory... really, it's a clown's show. The more time passes, the more people join the merry-go-round of crasse incompetence and corruption.
@Cypher that’s the problem. We aren’t going clean, we’re going anti Russian. We aren’t going anti imperialist, we’re going more nationalist. If Eastern Europe gets more power, nothing will change for the better. I’m polish.
“~Spain has agreed to build a pipeline to connect to Europe” … Spain has been trying for a long time but France was blocking it to maintain its status as energy exporters… turns out that the vision for EU autonomy was national interests all along… we never learn and prioritize national interests over European-level growth
tell that to the people in European parliament, theyr doing everything to stop growth and make lifes harder for people, so what do u want from us ? to join that ?
bringing oil and gaz from africa to europe is not in the interest of EU autonomy. It's just binging a equivalent dependency. a dependency on african countries and on fosile energies
maybe also because a pipeline in order to burn more CO2 and that will be another ecologic nightmare for the Pyrenean was refused by the majority of the french people....
@Prokletý Básník Bit dramatic maybe? A lot of them are slow, some are corrupt but some good things have been achieved too and if we stand together we can achieve more. Yes, this doesn't work perfectly, what does, we're humans. To expect a giant organisation to run smoothly and produce the results you personally want is ridiculously childish you need to grow up
power is the ability to act on or influence something. while this video shows that eastern europe were right on ukraine and right on gas, current circumstances have shifted EU policy rather than the influence of the eastern states. in terms of influence, germany and france still have far more influence in setting EU policy and this remains unchanged
Well, there is an argument to be made that especially Germany has to "concede" some of its power to secure enough energy to keep its industry running right now. So other countries can trade otherwise sacred cows (e.g. eurobonds) for a steady energy supply. On top of that: Scholz has about as much political foresight as a goldfish swimming in a bowl, don't expect him to make some ingenious power plays or even realize what his main goals should be. Then again I agree that eastern europe might have a moral victory (although I would argue this is very superficial and more than debatable), but did not gain any real power from this. In the end it's always about who can get a majority in the EU commission to get something done, and I don't see how any of this changed in favor of eastern europe.
True and it's based on the economy, population size and the military, eastern European countries getting this right doesn't really shift the needle on balance of power and actually, in the case of Poland and Hungary, their power is being limited by their own actions as they'll never gain too much through Europe unless they change their ways. Personally, I think the real shift of power will actually be away from Italy towards Spain, mainly because Italy have a declining economy that are slipping behind the rest, they have an unstable political system and are becoming more like the UK where they blame the EU for all the wrongs in Italy and not wanting to look at where the real problems are in Italy. In any case, did the power balance shift as the UK left? Nothing really changed and I doubt much is going to change here apart from what I said above with Italy and Spain, as for the eastern EU members, they will gain more powers as they become more modernized, but let's not kid ourselves, it's not going to be Poland or Hungary that gains that power, it's going to be the others in the region and you only have to look at the UK when they were in the UK, they always got pushed aside by the other members and a big reason for that is because they were obstructive and not constructive on the EU project, you want to gain more power in the EU, you really have to be a pro EU countries whiles having a decent economy and population size, the UK could have had that but it was too Eurosceptic and was push to the fringes of the project, the same will likely be the case for Poland and Hungary unless they change.
@@christophmayer3991 I don't think the idea Germany had to concede to get gas holds up. After being cut-off you would expect an up tick in arms, or other support, but this hasn't happened. It's a choice they have made. Being able to shift or change policy is power. Being correct is only a small part of the equation. Germany's weakness is mostly down to their own actions. The war blew this open, yet Germany has barely learned anything, dragging their feet on absolutely everything. There are no reasons they can't provide tanks or enable open third country German arms transfers to Ukraine. The excuses from German commentators and government are pathetic, compounding their weakness. That is not what leadership is. Combined with East Europe open commitment to the war and EU only widens the gap. Post-war, they will have a lot more sway to get Ukraine into EU and NATO.
Germany (and to a lesser extent France) carried great prestige, at least in Sweden (and probably in the rest of protestant/germanic Europe). Not just because it's a huge trading partner, but also because of cultural similarities and a similar way of viewing things. It's has been seen as an "orderly" country, I can't say that we have the same view of southern and eastern Europe. This gave Germany a large amount of soft power. But unlike the Germans, Swedes do not trust the ruskis. Never did. Hence, this whole debacle has significantly hurt German prestige in Sweden. Instead of being seen as an orderly state that can do things properly it's more and more just seen as naive and somewhat cowardly. (Conservative) Swedes used to say that "Germany is Sweden for grown ups". Nobody says that anymore. Meanwhile the Baltics have increased in prestige as well as Poland. Don't get me wrong, Sweden is hugely sceptical towards Duda and his, in Swedish view, authoritarian tendencies, but it can't be denied that Poland's firm stance towards Russia have greatly increased Polish prestige in Sweden.
To call the Baltic countries "powerful" is ridiculous. Those three states combined have as much inhabitants as the German state of Hesse and their GDP is comparable to the German state of Thuringia (that is number 13 out of 16 in Germany ...). They are unimportant in the grand scale of Europe and the European Union could effortlessly do without them. That is not to say they are not cherished members of the EU, but they have no position to influence anything in Europe. The need Europe for protection, wealth and development while western Europe needs them as their eastern periphery. It is far to early to judge the concequences of the current war in Ukraine on the European Union, France, Germany and Europe as a whole. After the war ends, Russia is still this large neighbour of Europe that can't be ignored ... regardless if it loses the war or manages to wrestle down Ukraine to an uneven settlement. That's why the western European nations play for the long run - they are not threatened by Russia as our 3 little Baltic friends. When the dust settles, Germany/France/Italy/Spain/BeNeLux are still in their position of power. That sounds really harsh, but geopolitics is not governed by morale and lofty ideals. We might think we are civilized, cultured and liberal ... but the layer of civilization is really thin and just covers the base mechanics of international relations and power politics. :/ We have to hope that this war ends soon and that it ends in a manner that preserves the rule of international law. Russia must not get away with its blatant breaches of international law and we as European countries have the obligation to mete out justices to those on both sides who have commited war crimes (WHAT a war crime is and what not is a matter for the judges ... not hysterical public opinion). And we have to do a lot of soul searching to prevent wars from become a legitemate tool of international poltics. Real people die in this war. In 2022. In Europe. While we are watching and treating it as a boxing match. -_-
They have to or they could be enslaved, conquered and stuck behind the iron curtain again. That being said, countries are still going to look out for their own interest inside the EU, even if that means ignoring whatever internet fad is popular in France and Germany.
Yes, we will. Soon, when the war is over, we will declare that we are now an European Empire - Europia. In the Poland we will build our new capital, housing 20 million. people, full of skyscrapers, combining finest art from the France with the best German engineering.
That's what politics is about? Edit: Also, these two statements don't contradict themselves. We are both: the biggest of the small, and the smallest of the big🤷
Poland is reginal power no doubt there , and with Three Seas Initiative Poland will only gain influence , war in Ukraine just have shown post soviet & Scandinavian coutries they can really on Poland in event of war , Germany on the other side lost a loot influence and in future when Three Seas Initiative will be ready , all coutries involved will get economy bust , on the same time Germany will loose on that .
@@amadalin Makes sense. A perceived escalation could lead to Russia trying to “liberate” Transnistria via an invasion of Moldova. It might be different if Moldova could defend itself militarily against Russia, but that is sadly not the case. Much love to all of your countries. 🇷🇴 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇪🇺💪
@@secularsekai8910 Romania is supplying Moldova with both gas and electricity. But it doesn't have enough to spare to help Ukraine too. Romania started extracting natural gas out of the Black Sea this summer, with more sites on the way and the Canadians will build 3 nuclear reactors in Romania, but it will take time. Meanwhile Romania has signed a deal for SMRs , Small Modular Reactors from NuScale Power. It will be the first country to deploy such tech.
I don't think it would be good for Europe to become even more dependent on the United States for its security, as the Eastern and Baltic states seem to be in favour of. Nevertheless, I can't really blame them for being somewhat sceptical of western European powers' preference to negotiate with Russia. There are too many historical examples of this that have resulted in tragedy for Poland and the Baltic states.
Historical? They are happening on our eyes. German are stupid and bought out by Gasprom. Obviously Eastern Europe isn’t any better. A bunch of homophobic anti left idiots. The EU will fall apart, it’s obvious.
Yes, but given the nervous and shaky political climate in the US, it would be a mistake to (again) put too many eggs in one basket. Ofc, one can increase the contribution of Europe to NATO and this is probably the most sensible option, but not doing anything but relying on continued US presence in the same extend as Europe is accustomed to is actually not that different from relying on Russia or China as business partners imo. If the US turns more isolationist and there are no separate capacities, the clusterfuck is there.
Something you need to remember the Baltic states and Poland tend to favor the United States over Germany and France whose troops do you think are currently stationed there and who do you think contributes most to nato
Finnish here and I agree with Eastern European mentality. France, Germany and Italy don't seem to understand what's it like when your neighbor is Russia.
Although, I wonder if Poland isn't planning this, i.e. that the USA will not support Poland at some point. In my opinion: They suspiciously buying a lot of South Korean weapons. Sure, the reasons could be different: the weapons from South Korea are cheaper than those from Europe and the USA. Also, South Korea already has some in production and can deliver in short time, while the rest has yet to ramp up. Still it's kind of interesting, as the rest tend to focus on their own produced weapons or those from the US for their armys.
Power in EU is more about economic strength than anything else. The East is still receiving money and the West still giving. Their won't be much change anytime soon in the balance of power.
@@prutprut6324 If you say so ... let Germany and France keep their money and let the Balkan states cough it up instead. They wouldn't survive for a year. WE WOULD 😋😎 Greetings from Bavaria
I think you misunderstood the video. He was suggesting the balance of power has shifted, giving more(than previously) influence to new EU states. Not 'more than' the old powerhouses. Imho Scholz is just too Merkel-like, suitable for times with at least illusion of stability. Merkel was just as toothless when Russia took Crimea. And Macron overvalues his diplomatic power, but I personally do not blame him for at least trying
if France wants to negotiate w Russia it's not because we are naive but because it is in the interest of France, what is the interest of France in fighting Russia?
I think this won’t last, though. Germany and France still remain the two biggest economies in the EU and represent a third of EU’s population. Among the two, France can “recover” faster. Macron preferred not to cut totally off dialogue between Russia and Europe, for if Russia finally chooses to operate diplomatic negotiations and making diplomatic advances still possible. Turkey as well among NATO members does so. On the energy side, once maintenance will be done for its nuclear power plants, France will come back among Europe’s top energy exporters. It may not be for this winter (sad enough for France) but within a couple of months probably.
Russia can´t and won´t settle for a peace that doesn´t neutralize Ukraine and acknowledges the newly incorporated regions to their full extent, including Crimea. Since Russia´s economy has stabilized, its arms production is ramping up, its vast stockpiles of ammo and equipment still not depleted, its populace is more that 4 times that of Ukraine and its population still supporting the war to a very large extent (only voicing criticism for not being forceful enough), Russia is not in a hurry to settle for peace. And after the seizure of Russian assets, officially declaring Russia to employ "terror tactics" (the same tactics the US have used in their wars), how are Russia and EU members supposed to re-engage in trade again after the war? And another thought: There is not a single active uranium mine in Europe left. The world´s biggest supplier of urainium fuel rods is Russia. So France is sitting on its own ticking energy bomb.
Germany and France would need to keep reaffirming their committment not to court authoritarian countries though. Particularly Germany. It is embarassing to have been seen as so timid in the early stages of the war. It is embarassing to be seen as so naive with their stance on Russia. I'd be very interested to know how they react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Will they be weak again if it means they can keep their economy strong? I think they will.
As a French citizen, Macron is a shame. Je cares so much about shinning on the international stage, failing miserably ans acting as a fool, that he is totally despising its own population. This is a miracle if France does not end up bankrupted or with a civil war soon.
This is an overstatement of a shift in power, I believe. Yes, the Eastern states have become suddenly in the spotlight, but they are highly dependent on Western EU countries to prop-up their economies and development. And before giving too much importance to Poland and Hungary, it should be remembered that their governments do not even share basic European values of liberal democracy and have systematically dismantled an independent judiciary and parliament.
Why put Poland and Hungary in the same negative spot light, this utter disdain for Poland by Western Europeans is getting beyond annoying now, you should also remember that Germany needs Poland just the same way, we are just as European as the rest of you despite your best efforts to make us backwater society of slaves for last 500 years
@@KrysFG because Poland has several pending cases of violating base EU law and requirements of EU treaties, down to human rights violations and failing democracy. Both Hungary and Poland are prime candidates for being kicked out of the EU for disregarding of EU rules.
@@KrysFG because both are the perfect example for democatic backsliding and break basic human rights that does not make ppl like you and i wont even engage your self victimization
@@KrysFGYes we are all European but when you have a literal autocratic party leading your government who doesn't even oppose lgbt free zones, that's just simply wrong and does not represent European values.
@@stefanb6539 Between Poland and the pre-Ukraine main EU Powerhouses such as Germany and France. Now that power is shifting to become more equal, we'll have to see what the actual stance is of other European countries now that they get more of a say.
If this results in a shift in who pays what im for it too. Truth is still that the east holds far less people and a fraction of a fraction of the economic power. As long as it stays that way there is no power shift
As Norwegian and unwilling "not-member" of the EU, I would love to see power shift away from middle continental Europe and towards Eastern Europe instead, and hopefully end German-Franco hegemony-ish. We need a larger distribution of influence/power in Europe to aim for some sort of balance and harmony, as no one is served by having two or three countries(and especially not nonelected "union leaders"), try to dictate other nations policies.
If you would live on a border with them you wouldn't say something like that. They are actually like Russians, not very smart at all and alot of bullshit propaganda.
Don't say such things out loud on this channel. TLDR is so deep in Franco-German hole that they might want to ban anyone wanting a change from a leadership that puts Europe from crisis to another crisis. First Eurozone crisis which happened because of pointless Franco-German force on Eurozone policy which strengthen them and weaken everyone else. Then a migrant crisis and ridiculous idea to allow in any African that reaches European peninsula and Brexit as the result. Now the energetic crisis that was sparked by Franco-German obsession on cooperating with Russia (despite their anti-EU stance, killing people. dictatorship etc.) which partially caused Ukrainian war. France and Germany have failed their test on leading Europe.
Im from Germany and i would welcome some eastern european influence if these countries wouldnt receive more money then they contribute at the moment. Their interests align more with national interest then Europe as a whole. Same with france and the southern states, who gladly allowed for higher inflation due to their high debt to us and Netherlands, Denmark, Austria and co. France is pushing for a debt Union while Germany resists sadly only to some degree. (Our interest lies in out high exports )We have seen the issue with greece. But overall i agree, if influence could be accounted for by population.
@@Zurvanox Mainly thanks to Germany, Poland does not receive money from the EU, so it is the largest contributor to the European Union and has no profits.
Sure, East might have gained some political capital but even with Schulz's constant attempts to embarrass himself and Germany they still got their money and that will always keep them as EU powerhouse
Agree Germany is too big economy to just “vacate the title“. That doesnt mean they cant ruin the economy as well tho. Iam not smart enough to make educated guess but automotive industry seems kinda important. Things like Green Deal seems disaster in making to me, while Asia (China to be specific) will continue to polute, you just shift the issue and hurt yourself basicaly for no gains. Why do i say that. Few days ago there was quite buzz around local truck company. It peeked my interest since its not something that goes mainstream. They made some new truck, it was cheap, easy to maintain, good terrain clearence etc. Good, reliable cheap truck, so ppl and companies alike wanted to buy it. They couldnt, it was made for Indian market and had some emission issues, thats why it cant be sold in EU. So here the truck polutes, but in India, it apparently doesnt count. Its absurd to me.
You mean their banks. Germany's economy has been more or less stagnant for over a decade, they kept themselves affloat through PR and predatory banking over the rest of Europe, but that won't last indefinitely
@@Lots17 I dont agree, they shifted to it because soon regular cars will be banned - do you think they do this just so they can spend more on development and production? Or because of regulation? Iam not influencer or bilionaire, me and my friends want car that we can afford and we can count on. The more you regulate something, the more expensive it is. Remember War on drugs? What a success right? Not to mention you need to power the electric cars. With what? Unreliable solar and wind energy? My country can cover its electricity needs, but only becasue we are small and have 2 giant nuclear powerplants. Austrians next door have mouths full of ecology, but in winter they buy electricity from EU exchange and is often sourced in our evil nuclear PPs.
I'd love to collaborate with France and Germany to create solid foundations for future military projects, such as the European army, but the reality is that our national interests have nothing in common. Both France and Germany have been projecting nothing but apprehension toward the idea of economically and militarily strong Poland. It's not in their interest. Moreover, they haven't been listening to us here in Eastern Europe when we collectively warned them about the existential threat making business with Russia could bring to the EU. It's almost as we lived on different planets not on the same continent. They only organisation that provides us with a sense of security is NATO under USA/UK protectorate.
One thing you entire fail to mention at 8.00 is that yes, Merkel was very well respected but she is also responsible for pursuing what has now become a toxic relationship with Russia (and soon China). Merkel was a solid leader, but a leader who has made momentous mistakes in foreign policy. Scholz, arrogant and lacklustre as he is, is only reaping the consequences of Merkel's mistakes. Macron will have to work harder to become a real European leader. No matter how clumsy she is, Meloni is not going to allow him to openly humiliate Italy (what happens less openly is up for debate): he will need to be wise with his words.
Why should Macron have any interest in humiliating Italy? Since France and Italy are both in the EU, I think this accusation kind of comes out of nowhere.
@@abraham2172 He had openly spoken against Meloni after italian elections, which was rude af, as she was elected democratically just as much as he had.
One criticism of today's episode would be that TLDR sometimes seems to forget Scandinavia when talking about Europe/EU. We've heard about the Baltics the central Europeans, Britain, Spain, Italy and Russia. But how is Scandinavia holding up? Where do we import/export too and from? -🇩🇰
Scandinavia seems to be waking up from some fanciful delusions, and should be poised for a renaissance also when cooperation among allies is baselined, and Ukraine is properly resolved. Not sure why Norway was highlighted in energy graphic for energy constraints...
It’s not so much forget as it is, the Scandinavian countries don’t really exert much authority over the EU. Sweden is barely even in the EU and Denmark has been trying to convince Europe to take Russia as a serious threat for years but no one cared, much like with Poland. The Scandinavian countries tend to be more focused on internal governance than on foreign affairs and global crises which leads to go qualities of life but very few people sit in meeting rooms and say “what will Oslo do if we go through with plan X?”
@@Mankorra_Gomorrah I disagree completely. The Nordic countries are very actively taking part on the international arena. The countries have small populations and may not be too media sexy, though. That does not mean they're not taking part. The local medias are full of EU, NATO, UN and other news and their politicians are always in some negotiation or other. Small countries sometimes care more about the world than larger ones. More dependent on others. Not sure how Sweden's right wing election results will change their stance, but there are 5 Nordic countries.
@@marikal2341 also Nordic =/= Scandinavian. Scandinavia is a geographic peninsula, Nordic is an ethnicity. Australia and New Zealand could be considered culturally Anglo but that does not mean that Australia and New Zealand are European states.
Romania really isn't even near "Badly affected" by the russian gas, since it used to import 8% of it s gas from Russia. So it is bottom tier when it comes to reliance on russian gas and one that was hit the lowest. And also Bulgaria which you have pointed as "Fared well" used to import 80% of russian gas. They even had the pipes shut down this summer. The map with how the coutries were affected by the gas is pretty inaccurate.
I live in Romani, and the last thing I'm worried here is an energy crisis, even inflation is not that bad here, energy prices where going up somewhat, but it's not that bad.
the price of energy in each european country doesn't depend on its dependance on russian gaz. It depends on the price of energy on european markets. And the price of energy on european markets depends on the most expensive source used (namely gaz). France didn't use to rely much on russian gaz, nonetheless the prize of energy is high because energy is sold on european markets at the price of its most expensive producer
Dude! there is also an country called Romania!!..its a little bigger than baltic states..dont be afraid to mention it..belive it or not but it is also in eastern europe...incredible..
I live in Latvia and we do not aim to rule the EU with Estonia and Lithuania - we want to achieve the prosperity of the Scandinavian countries, although there is a lot to be done before that. We want Germany, France and other Western European countries to listen to our warnings about Russia - the threat to Europe is not only Putin, but the entire Russian people with their thinking and mentality, which is more like the 19th century. imperialism - if Russia has the opportunity to conquer Germany, France, Spain, etc. they will do it - Western Europe does not understand that they are not safe, that the war is only between Ukraine and Russia - it is a war between values that are diametrically different between the countries of the European Union and Russia. While the EU is preoccupied with climate change, Russia is gathering forces for an offensive. Today, Europe is lucky to have such a Ukraine, which is at war with all its fury against the Russian army for every village. You remember one thing - Russia only respects brute force, and Russians hate weakness - so diplomacy with Russia is just a waste of time. Russia has mobilized more than 300,000 men and is throwing them into the front without delay to die, and if necessary they will mobilize another 3,000,000, and if necessary more - is Germany today ready to sacrifice her people in hundreds of thousands to protect her independence ? In Latvia, people are not sure whether Germany would be able to withstand the Russian offensive, and that is why we trust only the USA when it comes to military issues.
I think it's only positive that the balance of power gets more dispersed in the future. I think there's always been a sense of unfairness towards the east and the south when the franco-german axis were the only ones deciding both foreign and economic policy, especially when it comes to the monetary policy.
All of east european countrys are parasites. With countrys smaller than the city i live in. There will be no shift to the baltics! They are just to unimportant!
We have had zero percent interest rates for the last ten years. This kind of financial policy was not in the interest of Germany. Low interest rates were necessary to keep Italy alive. So for ten years inflation consumed the buying power of the German saver. So indirectly the German tax payer had to pay, in addition to the regular EU fee, the excessive populist social policies of Italian dumbass politicians. It’s the same in Hungary, Poland and Italy. First there was a tradition of high levels of social care like literal communism. Then the economy was struggling and the countries could not afford these policies anymore, so liberal parties like the one of Donald Tusk scrap social policies to keep the country alive and leading it to sustainable economic development. During this process the people get angry, because they lose some of their social benefits and vote for populists, who don’t have a clue and either spend more than a country could ever spend or turn autocratic. At the end common sense is neglected, because the people can’t look ten years in the future to see that fiscal discipline leads to more wealth for everyone. And now Right wing parties lead struggling countries in the east and south.
The thing about climate policy in Czechia. Over here it's not that people don't want clean energy, but realistically we have 2 options in that department here because of the geographical factors. Nuclear, which Austrians and Germans have been sabotaging for years and hydropower which will never be able to supply enough energy. What people want is sensible climate policy, not throw themselves under the bus on the altar of reduce carbon at any cost. The whole new green deal is fundamentally flawed and can't work here. Even if the nuclear wasn't such a stigma point for half the EU nuclear power plants take forever to build or even just expand existing and it's shall we say costly...very costly for such a small country that's heading for recession, so we need to keep the coal power plants active.
While there is no one good super-solution, I believe like Poland Czechia has plenty of running lignite mines, which have the great potential benefit, that they could be changed into pumped storage relatively easily. And in EU if we want to use wind and solar more we will need a ton of storage, including pumped storage. So perhaps the key for Czechia will be to become a "battery" for energy generated elsewhere, so that it can import when power is cheap and export when the price swings up (and with renewables-intensive power system such swings are inevitable). I accept that this is not something that solves 100% of the problems, but I feel like people often treat used mines as something to be buried, when in reality there are many possible uses for ex mines. The deep shaft mines also provide some opportunities for energy storage, but I won't get into details.
True, nuclear is a great source of power here, it even has strong support among the population, yet German and Austrian activists keep throwing rocks underneath the path to build more of them. Nothing against Germans or Austrians, just fuck activists
exactly on point. We don't have much wind or sun here, if the world wants us to abandon fossils we need some guarantees regarding accessibility and prices of energy from the rest of the EU. A common European energy market seems like an obvious solution, but Germany doesn't want to share the discounts it was getting from putin so this hasn't been possible so far...
Well "just keep burning coal" is also not a solution, that is simply giving up. Czechia has the potential for more wind & solar for sure but the politics and public is against it so badluck... Our best bet is probably an ambitious nuclear push until the other renewable techs are good enough so that it pushes public opinion.
@@TheBlobik Few points. It isn't that simple. Coal mines are not empty, not by a long shot, so pouring in water would be ecological disaster of quite the magnitude. Secondly there's the issue of national sovereignty, nobody here wants to just become Europe's battery. Options for energy storage might be tempting but unfortunately there are multitude of reasons why that hasn't been done and why it won't be in the near future. It also doesn't help with the problem that we can't shut down the coal plants without being in severe energy deficit meaning Czechia would become reliant on the rest of the EU, that sounds great if you want to go all in on the Union part but not so much if what you envision looks more like lose confederation. To cut it short, there are environmental factors why that won't work and political factors why even if we could do it, we won't. We have very pro-EU government rn and even they are not willing to just go in and throw away all our strategic integrity.
"Eastern European hawkishness has been vindicated"?? While technically true, it doesn't paint an accuarate picture. A better sentence might be something like: "Eastern Europe has been pointing out an 800 year old Russian behavior pattern. Startling everyone, Western Europe has started to listen."
This is pretty disappointing to hear, I'm an American and a Francophile. I was hoping that the EU could coalesce around France's leadership. France has by far the strongest military in Europe (it's the only Western country besides the US that can project power globally, and does) and its nuclear power plants demonstrate that its people and leaders are pragmatic and don't get caught up in fear mongering. I also don't want the US to have to intervene in Europe. Wherever the US goes on the global stage things just escalate. No one wants big brother telling them they've messed up.
If Europe ever marges into one state it will no longer be US ally. Watch what you wish for really.... France was never US ally to be honest. Support your true allies and you can find those in Eastern Europe.
I don't think Norway counts. They aren't full EU members. What I don't finish to understand is why aren't they becoming the energy providers of Northern Europe. I thought they had gas to spare.
At 7:34 there is a mistake. Macedonia should be in the red because here we have month to month 20% inflation. It costs 16 000 denars (260 euro) more to live here than it used to cost one year ago. The minimum wage is 292 euros. Imagine how bad it is.
@@Zetornator Yeah the pricses are similar but i remember reading the numbers for Macedonia and they were the highest in the region. But yeah we are all in this shit together
@@dand7763 yep still low enough for the current prices... here in greece its about 600-700 but its hard for us as well so cant imagine how hard life is for you 2 guys
@@Zetornator a little better ANYWAY than 10 years ago , not to mention before entering EU...not all has these 500 euro /month , i mean in corporations and bigger factories ,wages are more 800 to 1000 euro/month (not in all regions of Romania) the best wages are...in Transylvania region ,of course , the most touristic region of Romania) in Cluj City wages in IT Industry is close to 3000 euro/ month netto! you observed that thousands romanian tourists go in every year in holidays in Greece or Bulgaria...they are rich ;)
That is just because we dont have natural resources. And beeing dependant from someone, not having our own is bad. Same with houses and apartments, more people here have their own, and will buy with a loan, then will be renting for life.
Greece also has won from the crisis. Some projects such as Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, Greece-Bulgaria Gas interconnector and EastMed have been given a push. Hydrocarbon exploration attempts also have started in Greece after a decade of being frozen. Eurasia electricity interconnector also has become extra significant. In addition, due to TAP Greece can import Azeri gas. The only downside is that due to some disputes in the Aegean with Turkey, a Greco-Turkish war is becoming more likely in the next few years.
@@jasonhaven7170 Turkey enjoys a rare position where it can in effect, because of its geopolitical and strategic location, act independently of my government. We'll lecture them, we'll warn them, but we won't do much beyond that. As they've shown with their defiance of sanctions for buying russian s400s, targeting of Kurdish groups in neighboring countries, some of which we use as proxies in Syria for example, continued dealings with the Russians and China, overall profiteering off the whole current war and crisis, and setting up long term economic plans with SCO and BRICS, they're able to do as they please. At the very worst, we'll pull our nukes from their country, but sanctioning them, or doing anything negative towards them with NATO, would push them squarely into Russian and Chinese alignment, who they honestly have more in common with, than they've ever had with the EU and US. We're not willing to risk turning Turkey into Russia's gate guardian of the black sea. They've acted with impunity for the most part, and thats not something thats likely to change, especially as they become the new energy hub in the years ahead.
@@QueenMooSuko They're only becoming an energy hub because we in the EU and UK can't give up oil and gas. We need to go all in on renewables and nuclear like France and Sweden and we can leave the Middle-East alone and reduce our dependence on Turkey and Russia.
@@jasonhaven7170 Yeah you guys, even over here in the US, we all should've embraced nuclear energy. However, the unholy alliance of the Greens and Big Oil successfully lobbied against and launched fear and smear campaigns against it for decades. Wind, solar, and hydroelectic just aren't enough to replace gas and oil, and if the Green's hadnt been tricked by Big Oil (or maybe they're just stupid) into crusading against nuclear, the best green energy option there is that can meet demand, Europe would be in a much more self sufficient state.
I get how germany is getting weakend economically by the energy crisis, but why would that make the eastern countries more powerful? If germany is hurting economically that will also have implications for the whole of european union, so even in relative terms that supposed power gain would, if at all, be rather minusucle.
It's in the video: Germany has lost a lot of credibility because of their poor decisions that have financed Russias war and increased the EUs vulnerability
@@mskaarupj Did you read what I asked? Just because one gets weaker doesn't automatically mean the others get stronger. Germany made pretty poor decisions for years, that is fact and i never disputed that.
It's also about reputation, worldwide Eastern Europe is gaining respect, in the fact they were correct about Russia, and in their willingness to rise to the occasion on behalf of Ukraine. While Western Europe seems naive, selfish, and feckless. Old powers have failed on many policies they have pushed, seemingly more interested in hassling Great Britain for leaving EU, wagging their fingers at other's for cultural social practices or bending the knee at soccer games, than sufficiently addressing serious concerns that the Western/European community is facing.
Power comes from the perception of power. Germany has weak, untrustworthy and corrupt leadership, both in politics and the business sector. Combine that with the bloated and slow bureaucracy, weak IT infrastructure and an aging population. Companies will move out of Germany at a faster pace, and increase investments in Eastern Europe, it will make Germany weaker and Eastern Europe stronger. There will ne no more need for young people from Eastern Europe to go and work in Germany, if they can have it better at home. Basically Germany is Europe's Japan, but it can't run on infinite public debt.
No eastern European EU member is a net contributor to the EU and the biggest recipient of E.U funds is Poland at 11 billion Euros. The only 2 countries with veto powers over all EU decisions are Germany and France. The swing vote to any EU decision is provided by a combination of Benelux states, Italy and Spain.
The root of this apparently imminent power shift is the skepticism all Eastern European countries had towards Russia. All of us were severely burned by them in a direct manner in at least one way or another. When this war started, all I was seeing from my peers on my side of the world was a frustrated "what the hell did you expect?!" as a reaction, whereas whenever I'd talk with like-minded people my age from Western Europe or even the USA, their reaction was closer to genuine surprise that something like this could happen. In general, before the war I would see a lot of subtle dismissals towards my personal distrust of Russia and especially Putin, likely people writing me off as some sort of ultranationalist. While I sadly cannot say that my country, Bulgaria, can now proudly exclaim an "I told you so!", since pro-Russian behavior is regrettably common in Bulgaria, I'd at least say that there is a very good chunk of us forward thinking individuals who should very much be included when talking about Poland and the Baltics being vindicated. A hopeful estimate on my part would be a 70/30 split between sensible individuals and putinophiles, with the latter compensating for the disparity by being 100 times as loud and outspoken about their political views.
I think its more than just painful history. I mean Germany brought a lot of suffering onto the European continent as well. But are our neighbors actually saying "Ha I knew Germany is gonna start another WW!"? I think at least we have tried to heal the wounds, some may say we have done enough, some may say we havent dont enough. Regardless, at least we are trying. Did Russia ever try to heal the wounds, right the wrong, pay reparations, or at leaste sincerely apologize for their atrocities in the past? I believe not.
Everyone said the US was fear mongering for saying Russia was going to attack. Not to mention long before that, Trump roasted Western Europe for giving Russia tons of money while the US spends tons of money protecting them from Russia. So no, the US was well aware
It's unfair to say Germany didn't want to send lethal aid. That was before the war actually started. The first weapons were approved 2 days after it started. The helmet thing was before the invasion began and once it began they changed their tune pretty quickly, all things considered.
@@HUEHUEUHEPony They've sent artillery, rocket launchers, and air defense missiles! You're completely blind if you're still saying they're "sabotaging sending aid."
10:07 As a Czech person, I must say that this is a too nice of a way of putting it. "Against economic ambitions" should be replaced with "against the most dominant parties' interests (corrupt conservative SPOLU and corrupt populist ANO) because they're all stuck in the past and don't want change of any kind even though it would be economically beneficial to us in the long run... while not giving two shits about the climate."
Great video but you forgot to mention in case of France, droughts during summer played an important reason why France was forced to shut down or reduce nuclear capacity. Not enough water.
U turns are not a bad thing, It shows the will to change if you see that something is not working rather than going the wrong way till the end like other states do all the time, that's why Germany has maybe a dip right now but will come back really easily like always.
When others are relying on a team effort, especially from countries that assert themselves as leaders, past failures is policy and current feckless & selfish behavior isn't endearing during such a crisis.
It came back thanks to Marshall Plan... Now it goes directly against US... This may not end well for Germany... Guess who becomes now US ally in Europe?
Poland's power increase has been exaggerated somewhat. They are still a net beneficiary of EU funding. They are also in violation of EU law due to their democratic backsliding and in fact pay constant fines over it. And since EU does not have a security dimension, their military buildup does not really help them in EU policymaking. France and Germany have the power because their money keeps the EU going and that has not changed. It is possible that Eastern Europe manage to stop EU security integration, but is that really a win? It is also possible that France and Germany form a nucleus of European military and gradually expand that into other member states. But that would still take years to accomplish. But finally it has to be noted that many EU policymakers have noted that the dependence on American military might is an embarrassment to EU and cannot last forever. Things are in flux.
Being able to take alot of money from someone doesn’t mean you are weak. Just like the EU takes it’s military protection from the US for free. Now western Europe also have a nice buffer to the east and the east knows who it is who will really help them when the time comes.
... and why Germany have money ? , because of cheap gas , now with gas from Russia gone and sanctions , Germany will loose a loot of cash = influence , France can hold good , but France is NATO sceptic country ... and after all France & Germany cant wait to back to bed with Russia and majority of EU coutries dont want that .
@@TheBooban Poland has the potential to become an important European power for sure. Their economy has greatly increased in the last 20 years. But politically and diplomatically, they are isolated in EU due to their Eurosceptic government. They can benefit from EU money to a degree... but while they are a beneficiary, they are also not as influential as the nations who pay. Sorry, that is the way it is. If you want my 2 cents, once Poland elects a more internationally oriented government, their power will increase. Until that, they are going to be isolated. Their only EU ally was Hungary but that is now gone too.
@@majormoolah5056 you cannot isolate a nation of 40m with its army becoming one of the most powerful… Poland has also become the most important American ally in NATO, absolutely nobody will even think of isolating Poland these days
@@bartboructravels1943 If by isolation we mean North Korea, then no. But isolation inside Europe, of course yes. The only close ally Poland had was Hungary. They used to veto for each other so EU would not sanction them due to their anti-democratic politics. But that broke down when Orban decided to back Putin. Poland has currently very little chances to get their proposals passed in Brussels. Again, Poland taking more money from EU than they are putting in and refusing to follow EU policy on the independence of courts or treatment of minorities or ecology etc. American focus is and will be on China so Europe needs to stick together... if only Poland would realise that.
It'd be nice if you've talked about the recent economic woes in Poland for our government (rising bond rates, decreasing supply of cheap credit, inflation, intentionally underreported debt).
I am not sure if "underreported" is the right term here. The debt is fully reported to the EU, only for local methodology part of the debt got excluded (which I am not endorsing), but its not like this is somehow hidden - anyone who wants to know can get this information from EU data. Unlike for example the debt that evaporated (aka, got stashed under the carpet of the retirement fund) by the previous government.
Poland isn't that negatively affected from the energy crisi.....the main area energy prices has gone up is in the south. Poland still uses lots of coal for power and the natural gas from russia has already been replaced by the new norwegian-polish pipeline. Inflation is Poland is mainly driven by daily supplies not energy
the last remark on Polands lack of environmental ambition is somewhat a failure of analysis. They have an ongoing program to repolace their coal gen with nuclear power with the next 10/15 years, already have chosen suppliers, and are now studying locations for the NPPs. That will make Poland drop Coal probably sooner than Germany. The curernt power shift might be bad for Green Parties, but not necessarily for the environment.
as much as i dislike my Polish gov, i have to explain that they are not against climate action per se. they are just opposing this issue to be used as a reason for big "establishment" countries to screw the smaller ones as it usually tended to happen throughout history...
@@lours6993 I think it's more to do with the fact that Germany decides what classifies as " green" energy. Total coincidence that till recently, it used to be russian gas with an addition of renewables. Isn't that Germany opposing same price for russian gas for all EU countries?
@@martalukaszjastrzab760 Agee that the Germany’s definition of gas conveniently as ‘green’ is ridiculous and disingenuous. But it would take more than that for me to trust the would-be fascists in power in Poland. Please change your gouvernement and all will be well.
@@lours6993 true, they use that negative rhetoric for domestic use. The future of Poland is in EU and NATO. I live in UK, and I don't vote in Polish elections. Current government is not "fascist" it's opportunistic and cynical. They need "enemy" to rule, anyone from immigrants, Germany to judges. They're slowly running out of enemies to blame. German vague9 to put it mildly) stance on russia and war in Ukraine is a free gift for them.
@@martalukaszjastrzab760 ‘Current government is not fascist; its opportunistic and cynical. They need an ‘enemy’ to rule, anyone from immigrants, Germany to judges..’. Sorry to break it to you but that, together with dismantling democratic institutions and checks on their power, is pretty much the textbook definition of Fascism.
i dont see any compelling arguments that germany is much weaker than before. Afterall its still the biggest economy with the biggest population and good hightech basis. With its military reform there might also be the possibility of the foundation of a European army. The skyshield initiativ was pushed by germany for example. the new european fighterjet is also by large part being developed by germany. And also many other navalprojekts with norway. I think people in germany treat scholz unfair, as he faaar better then merkel. And much better than Friedrich Merz thats for sure!
I agree, except that Scholz is supposed to be better than Merkel, i think he is pretty much the same. He just seems so much worse right now, because holding out and waiting is not the kind of politics you can do in times like these.
@@BensenDoe but this is exactly what Merkel was doing. The Current goverment is doing much much more than what a Merkel goverment would be doing in the same time. Look at the speech He gave Yesterday in the Bundestag. Merkels politics can be discribed as " weiter so"...
@@karlfechner9602 don't get me wrong, i hated Merkel and the energy crisis we see now is predominantly thanks to her and Altmaier. Yet not to forget Scholz was vice-chancellor in that coalition. I heard the speech, though to me it seems he wants praise for patching holes. Idk surely these are challenging times and who ever is in charge will have a hard time. I personally don't think he has what it takes, but I also thought so before the war in Ukraine. Would we be in a worse state with the likes of Merz, no doubt.
@@BensenDoe Agreed. Well see after the war If he has a Vision for the future but for now the coalition was occupied fixing Things of the past. And there where plenty. Im Just afraid that CDU might win the next election so i feel like i need to Support SPD eventho I dont really Like them. Its Just that realisticly He, habeck or bearbock, or CDU will be the next Kanzler and there he seems to be the best Option. Maybe kühnert will be more influencial by then...
Well, how terrible Merkel reign was, we see now in the fruits it brought. But Scholz was for some time a part of Merkel's government, so he aint much better either. And I would not overhype the "high tech" argument. Yes, German industry is modern. But there are many caveats and in many areas they are only "modern enough", not "bleeding edge". Of course, due to its size and amassed wealth the inertia of German state is incredible, but it has been maintaining its position on inertia for some time already. So while it will not be overtaken overnight, the distance between Germany and Eastern EU is shrinking faster now, and the political potential of Germany took the strongest and swiftest hit.
There isn't a chance on earth that Poland ever becomes more than a regional player in the EU. Germany and France alone have a combined population of 150 million people. Poland makes up 25% of that, and even more worryingly its population is projected to fall to 23 million by the end of this century, while Germany and France are still projected to be 143 million. That isn't even including the fact that Italy, Spain, Netherlands are all powers in the western bloc too.
It depends on timeframe, and the future immigration policies. Germany and France without immigration would not hold strong demographically either. If Poland improves its immigration policy the forecast might become obsolete. For example it is unknown what the effect of war in Ukraine will be in this regard - the current situation might drive a resettlement from the east into Poland, or it might only cause temporary migrations
@@TheBlobik Germany and France are a lot more demographically stable than Poland even without immigration. France is currently still at net growth of about 80,000 per year.
@@robertrobski1013 How on earth do you reach that conclusion? 3 seas initiative: 112 million Germany France: 151 million Even in 2100 - Germany and France will have 140 million people while 3 seas will have about 68 million. Theres just no chance.
Shifting power from west to east or vice versa is stupid, we should all stand together now and have all the same amount of power in EU. I think we in Czechia already realized that, but especially Poland and Hungary want to be always in opossition against everything, which is wrong. But it's good that not only countries like France, Germany and Italy can lead EU now, unfortunately UK was our biggest ally in EU and we really miss them.
As a German, I am observing the situation in Ukraine and across Europe. It is true that Europe and especially Germany has massive energy problems. In my opinion, economic growth will take a hit but not destroy Germany like the rest of Europe. In fact, one can see some good and interesting developments in the whole "annihilation fantasies" of the German economy. Here one can probably say "death said live longer!". But these need time and will help Germany and allow it to grow in the medium to long term. On the subject of European autonomy, one can agree with the French in part, whereby the French mean a French-influenced EU and that is traditionally not a goal of Germany and so one stands with the Eastern Europeans. On the subject of the government and its re-election, one can say "It's difficult!". The so-called "traffic light" (red/yellow/green) is heavily criticized for its behavior in the energy crisis, in Ukraine politics and dependencies. In fact, one has to say that the "respected Angela Merkel" is to blame for not being able to diversify the German economy for 16 years and simply sitting it out. Be it social cohesion, see the energy dependencies or the de facto sell-out of German industry WITHOUT an alternative plan for Germany and further for Europe. This politician failed in all fields for 16 years and let the German carry her weight. As the former chancellor and European Helmut Kohl said back then, "This woman simply has no vision for Germany and Europe!".
North African countries should leverage their position as one of the few gas exporting nations close enough to the EU to negotiate more favorable deals.
They just gotta lure them to build the pipe line. After that they have have the same power as russia they can as easily shut the pipe. And most of the country is muslim country. After world cup would EU force LGBT acceptness into those country? No mostlikely. They will suck their oil and shut up about “humanity issue of lgbt” Imagine your lgbt value put over for oil what a joke
As an American, I’m hopeful that Macron’s security initiative isn’t dead but just on ice since EU policy changes for defensive technology development would take years to mature and likely wouldn’t impact the Ukrainian war. But ultimately a stronger EU would improve the defensive capabilities of the entire western world by allowing the US to reallocate resources and reduce the number of tactical decisions that need to be made by the pentagon. Which I think everyone wants.
Forget Macron's initiative. France will do it only to gain influence but will never use it. It will worsen defences even... European countries arm themselves very fast. Poland alone bought already 1200 tanks and 500 HIMARS like systems plus planes helicopters and moe. That is real defensive capability of Europe in 2 years.
I keep finding myself quite thoroughly enjoying your videos., even with the level of seriousness some of the vids might have..Sooooo thankyou kindly for what your doin' here..
I think Germany and France have somewhat lost their positionality in the power structure of the EU at the moment, but Poland and the Baltics are far from replacing them.
I would add that Macron idea is worth considering in Eastern Europe, but especially Poles, was very suspicous of French approach to security because we felt that French and Germans will trade our security and economic intrest for better deal with Russia first they will got this opportunity. That`s why Eastern Europe prefer US (they can betray us too, but US intrest is more aligned with Eastern Europe, than Western Europe is).
As a Spaniard, I'd like to give ourselves a pat in the back, but also knock ourselves a peg. On the one hand, the ongoing disputes between Morocco and Algeria have had some issues around. Before, Morocco and Algeria have been at odds, due to Moroccan illegal settlements in Western Sahara, a colonial Spanish province as recognised by the UN. But recently, Spain, which had been more attuned to Algeria (because of their gas), has tipped into Morocco's balance, which has upset their eastern neighbours. Previously, these disputes (of which Algeria was in the issue because many Saharan refugees are located in Algeria) had gone to the point where Algeria cut the oil supplies running through Moroccan land, to starve them from gas. However, this has affected Spain because the pipeline currently being used holds less capacity than the one running through Morocco. And there had been some issues and warnings from Algeria, as they didn't want Spain to bring gas to Morocco. The positive story from here is that because of our isolated state in terms of energy connections (due to France, actually) in terms of gas, we could achieve, alongside Portugal, what's called the "Iberian exception". For those who don't know how prices are set up, it's on an auction. However, unlike an actual auction, when you ask people around who gives more energy for less money, you order them around and give everyone THE SAME PRICE PER MEGAWATT HOUR. Which is bonkers. And the Iberian exception allows us to bypass gas, consider it as if it's at 80€/MWh and pay the actual price outside the auction. And it's been so successful that Italy tried unsuccessfully to get it (couldn't, as they have much better gas connections) and the EU is trying to set a similar feature. The issue is that the EU is proposing a much higher price, which is unlikely to pass (IMO, it should be 0€ towards the price setting and pay the price outside the auction, as all other actors in the auction), but the plan was a mostly positive one.
7:34 Norway *probably* shouldn't have been marked as red there. While southern and eastern Norway has been affected, northern and western Norway have more than enough energy. And we're exporting all of our gas, at high prices.
@@cmdr1911 Not quite. Norway has a smaller economy and our currency isn't a reserve currency. We're struggling with the same inflation that the rest of Europe as most of the countries we're usually importing from is struggling, leading to reduced production and Increased prices. We also have better leaders. So there's similarities but the situation isn't the same.
@@Luredreier I knew inflation was hitting harder in Europe. Kinda surprised with Equinor being as large as it is it isn't helping to offset, I think Equinor's revenue is like 10% of GDP. I consulted for them in the past and they were a very good company to work for. I know the area I am in is doing very well from increased natural gas prices. Schools and local governments are picking up revenue, locals companies are selling more to the oil and gas operators and the operators are hiring again.
@@cmdr1911 While some parts of the country relies heavily on the oil industry, other parts are hardly involved with it at all. And the oil revenues made by the government is saved up in the pension fund, not used here and now. The government is only allowed to use 3% of the pension fund pr year in their budgets, or essentially the dividends as the fund on average makes about 3-4% profit I think.
Everytime I see "eastern EU" in a title I get excited to watch the video. But as always, it's just about Poland again... The news about the East are always Poland here, Poland there, maybe some Hungary sometimes, and if you're lucky the Baltics.
It’s because Eastern EU(rope) is way too broad of a category, a remnant of a bygone era. Things that happen in Ukraine hardly affect the Balkans, and vice versa. Political commentators these days should make an effort to drop Cold War era mental maps and divide the region into at least 2 parts (North-East with Poland, Baltics, Ukraine etc. and South-East with ex-Yugoslavia, Romania, Bulgaria etc), if not more.
@@bartboructravels1943 Why not just say "Poland is becoming more powerful" instead? When someone says "Eastern Europe" I expect to hear about Eastern Europe, not Poland over and over again.
In Poland, there is a general consensus that’s states that we cannot trust anyone even the west. We have a grudge against everyone except a couple of eastern countries including the Baltic’s and Hungary. We have historical grudges against Russia, Germany, UK and France from WW2. They are basically considered useless when it comes to doing anything in the interest of the EU and only working for themselves. They rejected early warnings from eastern countries that underlined the dependency on Russia. Now the effects are visible.
@It`s okay. Remember East Europe is poor thanks to w europe, countrys like Pol Lit Commonwealth or K of Hungary used to be great powers but they was destroied by ther western neighbours
Debt sharing? Why? It would be like me and my neighbor having to share our debt but having no influence over how much money each of us spends and earns each day. Talk about a recipe for disaster.
Well, can't really blame Merkel leaving on elections. After all, she announced years before the 2021 election she wouldn't run again and there obviously would be a new chancellor. And tbh, Scholz is better than some others who had good chances (Söder, Laschet, Merz... depending on who won the race for CDU leadership and union chancellor candidacy)
Well yeah, Scholz is within the best of the worst. But just because everybody sucked, doesn't mean that the least bad option is suddenly good now. So while I agree that Germany chose one of the "lesser evils", it's still sad that that is the choice Germans had to make. The last election was a joke.
Honestly I am so very glad she gone. I respected her so much through the 2010’s as she felt like the leader Europe needed through some tough times However hindsight is 20/20, and now I’m just unbelievably disgusted at how weak she was in Russia. She did more than any European politician in the last decade to leave them open to Russian influence and her unrelenting trust in Putin has left Europe and particularly Germany extremely vulnerable. If she were still in office I have no doubt she would be just as weak now as she was during the Crimea annexation in 2014 Scholz is weaker on Russia than I would like but still an improvement nonetheless
@@MacTac141 she was generally really weak on nearly all topics. Her politics was just waiting it out and the other put immense strain on the EU (Greece and the migration crisis).. the complete denial that she created a huge push effect for the whole world to migrate etc.
@@MacTac141 I agree with you, Merkel was a respectable and clever politician, but from my point of view she was a bad leader on the european stage, because she lacked a clear course or vision for Europe, being almost "too pragmatic" and avoiding to take a clear stand on almost any topic. She mostly introduced "german-centric-solutions" for "european-problems", trying to get as many benefits as possible of germanys role as head of the EU, while avoiding many responsibilities coming along with it. Of course, perusing your own interests above others is daily-bread in international politics. But now many of these short-sighted and sometimes dysfunctional german-centric solutions come down, damaging germanys international reputation and influence.
@@helmutkohl8336 she didn’t put Germany first. She opened the flood gates to foreigners and that’s why we got fed up and kicked her out. Sweden too. UK too. Italy also. Enough is enough!
@TLDR News EU I really do not like this trend where you post, in all sense, speculative "news". Do mind in all aspects that eastern countries have more say in the matter of the war in Ukraine. But to say that these EU members now have more "power" is just a vague, disproperate way to describe how complex the EU political system works. The reasoning that Germany and the frugal four were against debts sharing is for the cause of economic gain. As they are the only countries that provide a positive balance to the Eu budget. I can't see how that is a reason to strengthen eastern power, as the economic power still lays in the north/western end. Stop with this speculative bias reporting, its not productive nor entertaining
I have not really been impressed by any of the western leaders (or any world leaders really) as of late, that said I don't really know any other European leaders well enough to determine if they are any better. I think the biggest struggles in the EU will remain 1) that one country wants to gain more where another country wants to give less 2) the differences in values. Also I have to take "the rise of power in eastern countries" with a grain of salt, sure they are rising but not that much I don't think. I haven't checked on what every country contributes (monetary) and benefits (monetary) to/from the EU, but I'm pretty sure the last time I checked (which admittedly I think was about 4 years ago) eastern countries did not do very well on those charts. Now I know this might have changed so if it did great, I don't mind more power be given to eastern countries. Nor is money the only way to contribute. That said I do think this says a lot where power in the EU comes from, since without NET contributors there would not be an EU to begin with. Perhaps if I find the time I'll research it again, but the last time it took me pretty long.
If eastern countries, wouldnt take that money, there would be noone who gives it away. Also, contributes take that money back in other form, then just suitcase of cash.
Could have also mentioned the massive gas deposits in eastern mediterranean and how Cyprus, Israel and Greece, along with Egypt, want to build a pipeline that can support 10% of EU's needs.
Each time someone does, eastern Europe finds themselves in a set of awful civil wars with over a million dead. I'm praying that nobody turns their head that way
Fair enough. Germany has been blocking some important reforms for years, however I think we still absolutely need Marcon's "Strategic Autonomy" long term. Also I think its extremly foolish to now buy weapons from the U.S. instead of producing our own. That country seems extremely unstable at the moment.
Power will still remain with Germany and France. The war Ukraine doesn’t change the gdp and population numbers of Germany and France. Eastern Europe will experience significant population decline in the coming decades.
@@HedgehogZone Oh yes they do stay. some 1,5 to 2 million of them allegedly (not taking into account the ones who were already here prior to the invasion). Even if one mistrusts official stats, their presence can simply be observed when strolling the streets of major cities... . As for the log term demographic impact of that... Well, we'll see. Lots of variables at play here.
Power being diffused is always a good thing - that being said, Europe needs to be more united on human rights, independent non political judiciary and the promotion of more democracy.
10:00 I'm not so sure about that last point. I understand Eastern Europe is less concerned about environmental issues, but the war has shown that relying on hydrocarbon imports leaves a nation vulnerable. There's a strategic advantage in using renewables.
it's cool when country has big potential for renewables. Poland is example of country that gets short end of the stick energywise - low potential for renewables, nuclear is long way in plans so what's left is either shitty coal or gas (unless smth new pops up). Not going through with first nuclear plant during communism bits us in the ass now
Green energy is a death sentence. Our priority is energy independence through a combination of nuclear energy and fossil fuels, and not the suicidal climate religion of the western elites who view humanity as the carbon they wish to reduce, else we incur the wrath of the sun god
While you are certainly right, that the EU will be less centric on Germany and France, I can’t imagine that any of two will diminish. Rather France, Germany and Poland will form a trio After all Germany is not only the most significant economy, it is also well connected internationally
@@alioshax7797 currently, yes. But Poland will function as a hub for Eastern Europe to France and Germany. It’s average age is younger and the wages are lower. So it offers a perspective to grow, while Italy and Spain will, most likely, freeride on Europe’s economic strength. The Netherlands doesn’t produce much, but benefits on European exports. Therefore it is unlikely that it will stay stronger than Poland
@@SpiderQueen888 let's hope it will happen. But it would require pro European governments in each country. I don't think that France and Germany would hand Poland more influence, if it is sending anti European signals and blocks further integration. And of course it depends on the composition of the next German and French governments. If those turn nationalistic, they'd probably regard EU politics as a zero-sum game, meaning that they'd assume, that any shared power ist lost power
@@EarnestBunbury Yes, i could not summarise this better myself. I hope one day to see positive changes and more integrated Europe, though i am aware that many do not share my dream.
Power at its core is all about economic power. You can achieve short term power bursts with a heavy focus in military power, such as the old Prussia when it had to fight off most of the major powers in Europe. However by 1806 this short term military benefit was lost. A country can choose not to use its power, which is probably the case for Germany between 1989 and 2021. This can give economically weaker powers great competitive power, which may be why the east seems more powerful.
What can I say, Eastern Europe knows russia the best, and definitely don't want history to repeat itself. While West was sick of pacifism, and was thinking, that peace would last forever or that 🇺🇸 would simply help just in case. Not only they had been cutting their military, but also let many russians dirty things to slide. By simply reading history, shows how fragile and short peace is. And look, where are we right now... All, what West had to do, was not to cut their military or even continues expanding it, but simply maintain 2% of NATO recommendations. it should be common sense, for maintain peace, have strong military... Eastern Europe knew this, but we are to small or poor... Glad, to have neighbor like Poland, perhaps not as rich like Germany, France, ect. but aiming to become main power house in Europe. and also is part of eastern.
you missed a key element on France: there is no majority at the parliament. This limits dramatically Macron's ability to govern, further weaking the French German leadership
I think it's going to be more of a stronger influence rather than power shift. Because while reputations have been damaged (especially for Germany), the facts are that Germany and France have the largest economies, biggest populations, dedicated to EU integration and two of the founders of the union. Poland isn't dedicated to further integration, its democratic status has been weakened and before the 24th of February invasion had quite some conflicts with the EU. And to nuance a bit: while Germany has been slow in some areas (such as the delivering of weapons to UA), you can't really overstate the magnitude of change in Germany that has been caused by this war. And while Marcon's call to not humiliate Russia's naive, it is a clear reference back to WW I when the humiliation of the Germans became the feeding ground for what would lead to WW II. The next RU government isn't going to be better than the current one; it's not going to be democratic or more positive towards the west and especially towards countries such as UA. But that is the path RU chose and also how RU works, there's just no chance of an improvement in relations with RU. All we really can do is prepare, to make sure that they understand that they cannot start a war ever again. Regarding your final points: a) I really hope there isn't going to be more Atlanticism, because the Americans are a liability. We can't go without them nor should we aim to break with them, but even more increased dependency is a serious risk. For example, one would dread to think what this year would have looked like if there still had been a Trump presidency, someone who on the record called the EU a 'foe'. We really do need more European sovereignty if we want to survive b) Absolutely no chance on debt sharing, that really wouldn't fly with the 'frugal four'. Eurobonds are becoming more accepted, but debt sharing will never happen. Also take note that debts are much more of an issue to the southern countries rather than central and eastern countries. c) Green ambitions could go any direction, but most likely will keep moving forward. Perhaps bit less ambitious, but pretty much all countries understand it has to happen. Especially because we have few fossil fuels (or it is too expensive to extract them).
As unlikely as it might seem, i think it's wise to keep an open mind towards possible future more democratic power in Russia. Maxim Katz, a former Yabloko politician and prolific anti-government UA-camr (who has English subtitles btw), sees it most likely that democratic forces are likely to be the net benefactors of massive shakeup in Russia that he believes to be slowly brewing, and he believes their influence on politics is likely to become at least tangible. But it may not be possible without support by Soros and EU of such political organisations and free press. But it doesn't mean that you shouldn't be hard on Russia right now, you absolutely should go as hard as you can. Humiliation is entirely par for the course, indeed it's desirable. It's about what to do afterwards and how to play the carrot and stick game later. It may indeed be possible to create such incentives as to turn the humiliation inwards towards particular aspects of society that lead to this in order to heal it. This worked with Germany after WW2.
@@germangarcia6118 Absolutely not. I'm an ethnic Bulgarian, grew up in the northeast of Ukraine, near Russian border, most of that when it was still Soviet Union, and spent most of my life since in Germany, where i am at the moment, and i speak all the relevant languages. I do keep in touch with people from my city in Ukraine, and can you even imagine - i remember every street there, the way they stood, with buildings largely around 200 years old; well they are pretty much burned down now, i've seen the pictures and the videos, and it's a very visceral sort of feeling, pain, anger, because i know first hand what these places looked like. There is indeed no sense of humiliation for defeat here in Germany, but there is an insane sense of humiliation for letting Hitler come to power, start the war, criminally kill millions of people by nationality or other traits. Fact is, defeat is what Germany experienced, it wasn't swift but it was very very decisive. This is the desirable sort of end result, should Russia not come to its senses. Decisive victory over Russia, and then Marshall plan sort of stuff to rebuild it back into an ally. And you understand, if i went by my feelings, i'd have every single Russian burned down; but that's just not the right way to deal with it, it's neither fruitful nor ethically defensible.
I would say the fact Eastern Europe stands up against the migration from the south, is also a big factor. As in the East they stand more united against it. While in the West the people are more split on the issue and we know how diversity causes divides in people and makes them less united.
So... The southern states have energy to export which gives them more power within EU and Macron stayed as the "de facto leader" of EU since everyone else was elected out. How exactly does that give the Baltics and Poland any more power?
Germany and France loosing grip on EU is a good thing in my opinion. Finally countries like Spain, Italy and Poland might have something to say in EU. Poland gained a lot of friends after the instant response to war in Ukraine, countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Finland know they can relay on Poland in times of need and this is bringing them countries closer together. Especially Polish-Lithuanian relations are something to look at as they haven't been that good since the 18th century.
I'm really happy to get closer with Lithuania, never really understood why our relations were so severed, seemed petty in my opinion, but perhaps I'm ignorant of sth.
@@seb_5969 US&UK will be happy to replace them right away on much better terms. for too long Germany was using EU's bureaucracy as an excuse to exploit the "new" members ("new" in case of Poland, Czechia, Slovy and Hungary does not make much sense anymore as these countries have now been members for more than a half of EU's existence). But yeah: this shows the true face of Germany and France...
Living in Romania we always had a national adversity as a people towards Russians doing business with the EU but never had strong enough politicians to cross a clear border. Most Eastern European countries had ugly and bitter histories with Russia, we all saw this insanity coming since Crimea.
As another Romanian, I agree
Not to mention that, no matter the money, certain partnerships are better never born. China and Russia cannot be trusted in any way, no matter how appealing the business looks.
When Ukraine join the EU the Eastern European countries become dominant. Only Orban can Sabotage this.
@@spukyon As a Pole - West seen Russia in demo-like style. Russian propaganda focused on west made some Potiomkin's village image. We in the Eaest seen reality, but finally you see what we have seen all the time. Therefore I think this war is so supprisng West while this is somenthing we here knew it would happend, sooner or later. We are one family, Europeans, Americans. As on the Eest - some processing we just skipped behind the iron curtain. Same steps mayby unfortunately backwards, but I think only temporerary, since we - Poles at least - just want to be part of big West. What really made us ungry, what coused fued and current gavorment, is disrespect, and fear, that once again West would seek in Russia main partner on the East. Nord Stream's creating was for us pure evidance that threat is real. Good it change, only a pity in an Ukrainian expanse. They in dead have some serious problem forsaking Nazi's Bandera, but we have to both help them and demand form Ukraine to ban this genosiadial retoric.
@@maritaschweizer1117 they will need to be careful though... Northern European states (the "frugal" ones) may strengthen their bonds and create a "subset" community.
It seems the countries closest to Russia understand Russia best. Who would have known?
It wasn't obvious. These country have historical quarrels with Russia. Sure, it could mean they have a better understanding of their neighbour, but it could also means that they can't go past their historical fear.
Sure, now they're right, but it wasn't granted. We should always be careful when looking at history with our modern eyes, we know what happened next, they didn't.
@@alioshax7797 these countries don’t have “historical quarrels”. They were dominated and ruled by Russians repeated in a brutal fashion. They know exactly what Russian rule is like and how Russians do business. They also are aware of how nothing changed. The USSR was as shitty as the Empire in terms of how it viewed people. With Putin being an agent of the USSR, and having a nostalgic love towards it, modern Russia clearly has not changed its mindset. Numerous experts pointed out that Russia isn’t trustworthy by pointing to Russia’s wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Crimea/Donbas.
@@alioshax7797 If you have a neighbour that threw rocks at your house for years, you don't exactly believe him when he promises not to do it again. That's why we never believed in Russian pseudo-pacifist approach.
@@dex6316 Don't forget political murders. But no, they do have a slight point, we Poles are pretty paranoid, and maybe our fears should be taken with a grain of salt, but then again if you see a dead body on a street, you're not going to try to convince yourself that it's just sleeping.
@@varsovianspy2992 Not "paranoid", but "wary".
It is enough to recall what Polish President Lech Kaczyński said in 2008 in Georgia. Now Georgia, next Ukraine, then the Baltic countries and finally Poland. Eastern countries understood this, but not the West, which constantly petted Russia.
True. Interesting that he later died in Russia in a plane crash.
@@damian4926 His brother killed him.
@@nicolasdecondorcet2431 lol
@@damian4926 Mowie ci. Jak dlugo utrzymuje sie ,,sztuczna'' mgla?
@@nicolasdecondorcet2431 Turks jokes always blown my balls away !!!! Hilarious
7:37 Romania hasn't been affected at all by the Russian gas cuts. In fact, we were the country importing the least amount of gas from Russia, at around 7-10%.
If anything, the current energy crisis in Romania is actually caused by inflation and the companies pumping up the prices to get even bigger profits, although their production costs have been and will continue to be ridiculously low.
Do you have a (real) leftist political partie in romania?
@@Pommelabricot4821 USR
@@Pommelabricot4821 I'd be inclined to say PSD ie the social democrats are the leftist party. But really, they're just thieves, like all the others.
I think it was PSD that was the most vocal about capping the MWh price and a law has just passed, but it seemed very poorly written to me and easily exploitable by the companies (as has already happened).
And if that wasn't enough, there are growing cases of people receiving bills meant for someone else, bills with a price 10 times that of the real one, bills where their total consumption surpasses that of a fucking factory... really, it's a clown's show. The more time passes, the more people join the merry-go-round of crasse incompetence and corruption.
@Cypher that’s the problem. We aren’t going clean, we’re going anti Russian. We aren’t going anti imperialist, we’re going more nationalist. If Eastern Europe gets more power, nothing will change for the better. I’m polish.
@@Pommelabricot4821 Why the hell would we want commies back in power? Had bloody four decades of them!
“~Spain has agreed to build a pipeline to connect to Europe” … Spain has been trying for a long time but France was blocking it to maintain its status as energy exporters… turns out that the vision for EU autonomy was national interests all along… we never learn and prioritize national interests over European-level growth
tell that to the people in European parliament, theyr doing everything to stop growth and make lifes harder for people, so what do u want from us ? to join that ?
bringing oil and gaz from africa to europe is not in the interest of EU autonomy. It's just binging a equivalent dependency. a dependency on african countries and on fosile energies
maybe also because a pipeline in order to burn more CO2 and that will be another ecologic nightmare for the Pyrenean was refused by the majority of the french people....
You need 🧠👈 before building your pipeline
@Prokletý Básník Bit dramatic maybe? A lot of them are slow, some are corrupt but some good things have been achieved too and if we stand together we can achieve more. Yes, this doesn't work perfectly, what does, we're humans. To expect a giant organisation to run smoothly and produce the results you personally want is ridiculously childish you need to grow up
power is the ability to act on or influence something. while this video shows that eastern europe were right on ukraine and right on gas, current circumstances have shifted EU policy rather than the influence of the eastern states. in terms of influence, germany and france still have far more influence in setting EU policy and this remains unchanged
Well, there is an argument to be made that especially Germany has to "concede" some of its power to secure enough energy to keep its industry running right now. So other countries can trade otherwise sacred cows (e.g. eurobonds) for a steady energy supply. On top of that: Scholz has about as much political foresight as a goldfish swimming in a bowl, don't expect him to make some ingenious power plays or even realize what his main goals should be.
Then again I agree that eastern europe might have a moral victory (although I would argue this is very superficial and more than debatable), but did not gain any real power from this. In the end it's always about who can get a majority in the EU commission to get something done, and I don't see how any of this changed in favor of eastern europe.
True and it's based on the economy, population size and the military, eastern European countries getting this right doesn't really shift the needle on balance of power and actually, in the case of Poland and Hungary, their power is being limited by their own actions as they'll never gain too much through Europe unless they change their ways.
Personally, I think the real shift of power will actually be away from Italy towards Spain, mainly because Italy have a declining economy that are slipping behind the rest, they have an unstable political system and are becoming more like the UK where they blame the EU for all the wrongs in Italy and not wanting to look at where the real problems are in Italy.
In any case, did the power balance shift as the UK left? Nothing really changed and I doubt much is going to change here apart from what I said above with Italy and Spain, as for the eastern EU members, they will gain more powers as they become more modernized, but let's not kid ourselves, it's not going to be Poland or Hungary that gains that power, it's going to be the others in the region and you only have to look at the UK when they were in the UK, they always got pushed aside by the other members and a big reason for that is because they were obstructive and not constructive on the EU project, you want to gain more power in the EU, you really have to be a pro EU countries whiles having a decent economy and population size, the UK could have had that but it was too Eurosceptic and was push to the fringes of the project, the same will likely be the case for Poland and Hungary unless they change.
@@christophmayer3991 I don't think the idea Germany had to concede to get gas holds up. After being cut-off you would expect an up tick in arms, or other support, but this hasn't happened. It's a choice they have made.
Being able to shift or change policy is power. Being correct is only a small part of the equation. Germany's weakness is mostly down to their own actions. The war blew this open, yet Germany has barely learned anything, dragging their feet on absolutely everything. There are no reasons they can't provide tanks or enable open third country German arms transfers to Ukraine. The excuses from German commentators and government are pathetic, compounding their weakness. That is not what leadership is. Combined with East Europe open commitment to the war and EU only widens the gap. Post-war, they will have a lot more sway to get Ukraine into EU and NATO.
Germany (and to a lesser extent France) carried great prestige, at least in Sweden (and probably in the rest of protestant/germanic Europe).
Not just because it's a huge trading partner, but also because of cultural similarities and a similar way of viewing things. It's has been seen as an "orderly" country, I can't say that we have the same view of southern and eastern Europe.
This gave Germany a large amount of soft power. But unlike the Germans, Swedes do not trust the ruskis. Never did. Hence, this whole debacle has significantly hurt German prestige in Sweden. Instead of being seen as an orderly state that can do things properly it's more and more just seen as naive and somewhat cowardly.
(Conservative) Swedes used to say that "Germany is Sweden for grown ups". Nobody says that anymore.
Meanwhile the Baltics have increased in prestige as well as Poland. Don't get me wrong, Sweden is hugely sceptical towards Duda and his, in Swedish view, authoritarian tendencies, but it can't be denied that Poland's firm stance towards Russia have greatly increased Polish prestige in Sweden.
To call the Baltic countries "powerful" is ridiculous. Those three states combined have as much inhabitants as the German state of Hesse and their GDP is comparable to the German state of Thuringia (that is number 13 out of 16 in Germany ...). They are unimportant in the grand scale of Europe and the European Union could effortlessly do without them. That is not to say they are not cherished members of the EU, but they have no position to influence anything in Europe. The need Europe for protection, wealth and development while western Europe needs them as their eastern periphery.
It is far to early to judge the concequences of the current war in Ukraine on the European Union, France, Germany and Europe as a whole. After the war ends, Russia is still this large neighbour of Europe that can't be ignored ... regardless if it loses the war or manages to wrestle down Ukraine to an uneven settlement. That's why the western European nations play for the long run - they are not threatened by Russia as our 3 little Baltic friends. When the dust settles, Germany/France/Italy/Spain/BeNeLux are still in their position of power.
That sounds really harsh, but geopolitics is not governed by morale and lofty ideals. We might think we are civilized, cultured and liberal ... but the layer of civilization is really thin and just covers the base mechanics of international relations and power politics. :/
We have to hope that this war ends soon and that it ends in a manner that preserves the rule of international law. Russia must not get away with its blatant breaches of international law and we as European countries have the obligation to mete out justices to those on both sides who have commited war crimes (WHAT a war crime is and what not is a matter for the judges ... not hysterical public opinion). And we have to do a lot of soul searching to prevent wars from become a legitemate tool of international poltics.
Real people die in this war. In 2022. In Europe. While we are watching and treating it as a boxing match. -_-
In eyes of Poland western policy towards Russia always looked naive.
In eyes of everyone who ever had something to do with Russia the western policy seemed naive...
@@tefky7964 touché, my brother in Christ
@@tefky7964 Every new policy seems naive, until it works. It didn't work here, but could we know that at the time ?
@@alioshax7797 yes
@@10hawell Brother in Christ?
I really hope that Europe will be more united in the long run.
They have to or they could be enslaved, conquered and stuck behind the iron curtain again. That being said, countries are still going to look out for their own interest inside the EU, even if that means ignoring whatever internet fad is popular in France and Germany.
Yes, we will. Soon, when the war is over, we will declare that we are now an European Empire - Europia. In the Poland we will build our new capital, housing 20 million. people, full of skyscrapers, combining finest art from the France with the best German engineering.
@@MysliusLT I’m sure you guys will have a lot of oil too.
@@MysliusLT lol the capital will be in brussel. why do you think the rich countries will let poland have it?
@@MysliusLT We will call the new capital Polania.
Poland is either:
- smallest of big EU countries
- biggest of small EU countries
they keep switching their approach whenever it suits them
Problem?
That's what politics is about?
Edit: Also, these two statements don't contradict themselves. We are both: the biggest of the small,
and the smallest of the big🤷
Poland is reginal power no doubt there , and with Three Seas Initiative Poland will only gain influence , war in Ukraine just have shown post soviet & Scandinavian coutries they can really on Poland in event of war , Germany on the other side lost a loot influence and in future when Three Seas Initiative will be ready , all coutries involved will get economy bust , on the same time Germany will loose on that .
@@varsovianspy2992 How is Poland the biggest and the smallest in the same time?
@@alex47775 We've been living in a stage of constant crisis for so long, that we learned to shift reality to our liking.
Romania is actually relatively unaffected by energy crisis, and in fact exports much of its production overseas.
Then why doesn’t it help Moldova and Ukraine? Both neighbors could very much use its assistance.
@@secularsekai8910 I am not too sure on that matter.
@@amadalin Makes sense. A perceived escalation could lead to Russia trying to “liberate” Transnistria via an invasion of Moldova. It might be different if Moldova could defend itself militarily against Russia, but that is sadly not the case.
Much love to all of your countries.
🇷🇴 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇪🇺💪
@@secularsekai8910 Romania is supplying Moldova with both gas and electricity. But it doesn't have enough to spare to help Ukraine too.
Romania started extracting natural gas out of the Black Sea this summer, with more sites on the way and the Canadians will build 3 nuclear reactors in Romania, but it will take time.
Meanwhile Romania has signed a deal for SMRs , Small Modular Reactors from NuScale Power. It will be the first country to deploy such tech.
@@scratchy996 Very interesting. Gears are turning. In the long term, things look favorable for Ukraine and her EU neighbors.
I don't think it would be good for Europe to become even more dependent on the United States for its security, as the Eastern and Baltic states seem to be in favour of. Nevertheless, I can't really blame them for being somewhat sceptical of western European powers' preference to negotiate with Russia. There are too many historical examples of this that have resulted in tragedy for Poland and the Baltic states.
Historical? They are happening on our eyes. German are stupid and bought out by Gasprom. Obviously Eastern Europe isn’t any better. A bunch of homophobic anti left idiots. The EU will fall apart, it’s obvious.
Yes, but given the nervous and shaky political climate in the US, it would be a mistake to (again) put too many eggs in one basket. Ofc, one can increase the contribution of Europe to NATO and this is probably the most sensible option, but not doing anything but relying on continued US presence in the same extend as Europe is accustomed to is actually not that different from relying on Russia or China as business partners imo. If the US turns more isolationist and there are no separate capacities, the clusterfuck is there.
Something you need to remember the Baltic states and Poland tend to favor the United States over Germany and France whose troops do you think are currently stationed there and who do you think contributes most to nato
Finnish here and I agree with Eastern European mentality. France, Germany and Italy don't seem to understand what's it like when your neighbor is Russia.
Although, I wonder if Poland isn't planning this, i.e. that the USA will not support Poland at some point.
In my opinion: They suspiciously buying a lot of South Korean weapons.
Sure, the reasons could be different: the weapons from South Korea are cheaper than those from Europe and the USA. Also, South Korea already has some in production and can deliver in short time, while the rest has yet to ramp up.
Still it's kind of interesting, as the rest tend to focus on their own produced weapons or those from the US for their armys.
Power in EU is more about economic strength than anything else. The East is still receiving money and the West still giving. Their won't be much change anytime soon in the balance of power.
Very oversimplified take. A cope almost
@prut prut
Nah he is right
@@prutprut6324 If you say so ... let Germany and France keep their money and let the Balkan states cough it up instead. They wouldn't survive for a year.
WE WOULD 😋😎
Greetings from Bavaria
I think you misunderstood the video. He was suggesting the balance of power has shifted, giving more(than previously) influence to new EU states. Not 'more than' the old powerhouses.
Imho Scholz is just too Merkel-like, suitable for times with at least illusion of stability. Merkel was just as toothless when Russia took Crimea. And Macron overvalues his diplomatic power, but I personally do not blame him for at least trying
if France wants to negotiate w Russia it's not because we are naive but because it is in the interest of France, what is the interest of France in fighting Russia?
TL;DR of TL;DR: everything has 3 reasons. No less, no more.
I think this won’t last, though. Germany and France still remain the two biggest economies in the EU and represent a third of EU’s population. Among the two, France can “recover” faster. Macron preferred not to cut totally off dialogue between Russia and Europe, for if Russia finally chooses to operate diplomatic negotiations and making diplomatic advances still possible. Turkey as well among NATO members does so. On the energy side, once maintenance will be done for its nuclear power plants, France will come back among Europe’s top energy exporters. It may not be for this winter (sad enough for France) but within a couple of months probably.
Fair assessment
Russia can´t and won´t settle for a peace that doesn´t neutralize Ukraine and acknowledges the newly incorporated regions to their full extent, including Crimea. Since Russia´s economy has stabilized, its arms production is ramping up, its vast stockpiles of ammo and equipment still not depleted, its populace is more that 4 times that of Ukraine and its population still supporting the war to a very large extent (only voicing criticism for not being forceful enough), Russia is not in a hurry to settle for peace.
And after the seizure of Russian assets, officially declaring Russia to employ "terror tactics" (the same tactics the US have used in their wars), how are Russia and EU members supposed to re-engage in trade again after the war?
And another thought: There is not a single active uranium mine in Europe left. The world´s biggest supplier of urainium fuel rods is Russia. So France is sitting on its own ticking energy bomb.
Germany and France would need to keep reaffirming their committment not to court authoritarian countries though. Particularly Germany. It is embarassing to have been seen as so timid in the early stages of the war. It is embarassing to be seen as so naive with their stance on Russia. I'd be very interested to know how they react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Will they be weak again if it means they can keep their economy strong? I think they will.
Russia won’t come back until they have a real change in politics. And that won’t happen as long as warlords like Putin are in power.
As a French citizen, Macron is a shame. Je cares so much about shinning on the international stage, failing miserably ans acting as a fool, that he is totally despising its own population. This is a miracle if France does not end up bankrupted or with a civil war soon.
This is an overstatement of a shift in power, I believe. Yes, the Eastern states have become suddenly in the spotlight, but they are highly dependent on Western EU countries to prop-up their economies and development. And before giving too much importance to Poland and Hungary, it should be remembered that their governments do not even share basic European values of liberal democracy and have systematically dismantled an independent judiciary and parliament.
Why put Poland and Hungary in the same negative spot light, this utter disdain for Poland by Western Europeans is getting beyond annoying now, you should also remember that Germany needs Poland just the same way, we are just as European as the rest of you despite your best efforts to make us backwater society of slaves for last 500 years
@@KrysFG because Poland has several pending cases of violating base EU law and requirements of EU treaties, down to human rights violations and failing democracy.
Both Hungary and Poland are prime candidates for being kicked out of the EU for disregarding of EU rules.
@@KrysFG No Future with the EU, the western part of it wants eastern europe to be subservient to it.
@@KrysFG because both are the perfect example for democatic backsliding and break basic human rights that does not make ppl like you and i wont even engage your self victimization
@@KrysFGYes we are all European but when you have a literal autocratic party leading your government who doesn't even oppose lgbt free zones, that's just simply wrong and does not represent European values.
If it gives more countries an even stance then I'm all for it. Gives more bargaining/negotiating power and as a result better democracy in the EU.
Better democracy? One of the sore points between Poland and the EU are Poland's attempts at undermining the independence of their judiciary.
I think its good as far as the war in concerned... but might not be the best for climate action.
@@stefanb6539 Between Poland and the pre-Ukraine main EU Powerhouses such as Germany and France. Now that power is shifting to become more equal, we'll have to see what the actual stance is of other European countries now that they get more of a say.
I think it does quite the contrary, especially for security, making Europe sit at the heels of American military interest
If this results in a shift in who pays what im for it too. Truth is still that the east holds far less people and a fraction of a fraction of the economic power. As long as it stays that way there is no power shift
As Norwegian and unwilling "not-member" of the EU, I would love to see power shift away from middle continental Europe and towards Eastern Europe instead, and hopefully end German-Franco hegemony-ish.
We need a larger distribution of influence/power in Europe to aim for some sort of balance and harmony, as no one is served by having two or three countries(and especially not nonelected "union leaders"), try to dictate other nations policies.
If you would live on a border with them you wouldn't say something like that. They are actually like Russians, not very smart at all and alot of bullshit propaganda.
Don't say such things out loud on this channel. TLDR is so deep in Franco-German hole that they might want to ban anyone wanting a change from a leadership that puts Europe from crisis to another crisis.
First Eurozone crisis which happened because of pointless Franco-German force on Eurozone policy which strengthen them and weaken everyone else.
Then a migrant crisis and ridiculous idea to allow in any African that reaches European peninsula and Brexit as the result.
Now the energetic crisis that was sparked by Franco-German obsession on cooperating with Russia (despite their anti-EU stance, killing people. dictatorship etc.) which partially caused Ukrainian war.
France and Germany have failed their test on leading Europe.
@@damian4926 Lol, fingers crossed my comments stay, as yeah I've seen the same bias as well. Wholeheartedly agree on the Franco-German issue.
Im from Germany and i would welcome some eastern european influence if these countries wouldnt receive more money then they contribute at the moment. Their interests align more with national interest then Europe as a whole. Same with france and the southern states, who gladly allowed for higher inflation due to their high debt to us and Netherlands, Denmark, Austria and co. France is pushing for a debt Union while Germany resists sadly only to some degree. (Our interest lies in out high exports )We have seen the issue with greece. But overall i agree, if influence could be accounted for by population.
@@Zurvanox Mainly thanks to Germany, Poland does not receive money from the EU, so it is the largest contributor to the European Union and has no profits.
"Power isn't really measurable in any define sense"
Me: Laughs in kilowatt
Sure, East might have gained some political capital but even with Schulz's constant attempts to embarrass himself and Germany they still got their money and that will always keep them as EU powerhouse
Agree Germany is too big economy to just “vacate the title“. That doesnt mean they cant ruin the economy as well tho. Iam not smart enough to make educated guess but automotive industry seems kinda important. Things like Green Deal seems disaster in making to me, while Asia (China to be specific) will continue to polute, you just shift the issue and hurt yourself basicaly for no gains.
Why do i say that. Few days ago there was quite buzz around local truck company. It peeked my interest since its not something that goes mainstream. They made some new truck, it was cheap, easy to maintain, good terrain clearence etc. Good, reliable cheap truck, so ppl and companies alike wanted to buy it. They couldnt, it was made for Indian market and had some emission issues, thats why it cant be sold in EU. So here the truck polutes, but in India, it apparently doesnt count. Its absurd to me.
You mean their banks. Germany's economy has been more or less stagnant for over a decade, they kept themselves affloat through PR and predatory banking over the rest of Europe, but that won't last indefinitely
@@DaweSMF these car brands started shifting to electric vehicles by themselves so they gotta see something profitable in it
Ah, don't worry Scholz's working on that too
@@Lots17 I dont agree, they shifted to it because soon regular cars will be banned - do you think they do this just so they can spend more on development and production? Or because of regulation? Iam not influencer or bilionaire, me and my friends want car that we can afford and we can count on. The more you regulate something, the more expensive it is. Remember War on drugs? What a success right? Not to mention you need to power the electric cars. With what? Unreliable solar and wind energy? My country can cover its electricity needs, but only becasue we are small and have 2 giant nuclear powerplants. Austrians next door have mouths full of ecology, but in winter they buy electricity from EU exchange and is often sourced in our evil nuclear PPs.
I'd love to collaborate with France and Germany to create solid foundations for future military projects, such as the European army, but the reality is that our national interests have nothing in common. Both France and Germany have been projecting nothing but apprehension toward the idea of economically and militarily strong Poland. It's not in their interest. Moreover, they haven't been listening to us here in Eastern Europe when we collectively warned them about the existential threat making business with Russia could bring to the EU. It's almost as we lived on different planets not on the same continent. They only organisation that provides us with a sense of security is NATO under USA/UK protectorate.
And where did you see that nato , us, uk brought peace? You are dreaming to much, fellow.
One thing you entire fail to mention at 8.00 is that yes, Merkel was very well respected but she is also responsible for pursuing what has now become a toxic relationship with Russia (and soon China). Merkel was a solid leader, but a leader who has made momentous mistakes in foreign policy. Scholz, arrogant and lacklustre as he is, is only reaping the consequences of Merkel's mistakes.
Macron will have to work harder to become a real European leader. No matter how clumsy she is, Meloni is not going to allow him to openly humiliate Italy (what happens less openly is up for debate): he will need to be wise with his words.
Why should Macron have any interest in humiliating Italy? Since France and Italy are both in the EU, I think this accusation kind of comes out of nowhere.
@@abraham2172 you are not familiar with franco-italian relationships, apparently.
@@abraham2172 He had openly spoken against Meloni after italian elections, which was rude af, as she was elected democratically just as much as he had.
@@idraote Why would that person ask, if they knew? Someone else already answered, but feel free to chime in if you know as well.
@@prw56 because it wasn't a real question, but a rhetorical one.
One criticism of today's episode would be that TLDR sometimes seems to forget Scandinavia when talking about Europe/EU. We've heard about the Baltics the central Europeans, Britain, Spain, Italy and Russia. But how is Scandinavia holding up? Where do we import/export too and from?
-🇩🇰
Scandinavia seems to be waking up from some fanciful delusions, and should be poised for a renaissance also when cooperation among allies is baselined, and Ukraine is properly resolved. Not sure why Norway was highlighted in energy graphic for energy constraints...
It’s not so much forget as it is, the Scandinavian countries don’t really exert much authority over the EU. Sweden is barely even in the EU and Denmark has been trying to convince Europe to take Russia as a serious threat for years but no one cared, much like with Poland. The Scandinavian countries tend to be more focused on internal governance than on foreign affairs and global crises which leads to go qualities of life but very few people sit in meeting rooms and say “what will Oslo do if we go through with plan X?”
@@Mankorra_Gomorrah I disagree completely. The Nordic countries are very actively taking part on the international arena. The countries have small populations and may not be too media sexy, though. That does not mean they're not taking part. The local medias are full of EU, NATO, UN and other news and their politicians are always in some negotiation or other. Small countries sometimes care more about the world than larger ones. More dependent on others. Not sure how Sweden's right wing election results will change their stance, but there are 5 Nordic countries.
@@marikal2341 Local media talking about world events =/= government focus on international relations or global influence.
@@marikal2341 also Nordic =/= Scandinavian. Scandinavia is a geographic peninsula, Nordic is an ethnicity. Australia and New Zealand could be considered culturally Anglo but that does not mean that Australia and New Zealand are European states.
Romania really isn't even near "Badly affected" by the russian gas, since it used to import 8% of it s gas from Russia. So it is bottom tier when it comes to reliance on russian gas and one that was hit the lowest.
And also Bulgaria which you have pointed as "Fared well" used to import 80% of russian gas. They even had the pipes shut down this summer.
The map with how the coutries were affected by the gas is pretty inaccurate.
I live in Romani, and the last thing I'm worried here is an energy crisis, even inflation is not that bad here, energy prices where going up somewhat, but it's not that bad.
the price of energy in each european country doesn't depend on its dependance on russian gaz. It depends on the price of energy on european markets. And the price of energy on european markets depends on the most expensive source used (namely gaz). France didn't use to rely much on russian gaz, nonetheless the prize of energy is high because energy is sold on european markets at the price of its most expensive producer
Dude! there is also an country called Romania!!..its a little bigger than baltic states..dont be afraid to mention it..belive it or not but it is also in eastern europe...incredible..
triggered.
@@MikeyPaper Are you triggered also?😁
all Romanians are already illegaly working or stealing in other countries, so Romania is just empty forest full of bears and vampires 😀
@@Pidalin Gypsy scum are those who steal
@@Pidalin isn’t it hard to live tour life with so few neuronal links as you seems to have?
I live in Latvia and we do not aim to rule the EU with Estonia and Lithuania - we want to achieve the prosperity of the Scandinavian countries, although there is a lot to be done before that. We want Germany, France and other Western European countries to listen to our warnings about Russia - the threat to Europe is not only Putin, but the entire Russian people with their thinking and mentality, which is more like the 19th century. imperialism - if Russia has the opportunity to conquer Germany, France, Spain, etc. they will do it - Western Europe does not understand that they are not safe, that the war is only between Ukraine and Russia - it is a war between values that are diametrically different between the countries of the European Union and Russia. While the EU is preoccupied with climate change, Russia is gathering forces for an offensive. Today, Europe is lucky to have such a Ukraine, which is at war with all its fury against the Russian army for every village. You remember one thing - Russia only respects brute force, and Russians hate weakness - so diplomacy with Russia is just a waste of time. Russia has mobilized more than 300,000 men and is throwing them into the front without delay to die, and if necessary they will mobilize another 3,000,000, and if necessary more - is Germany today ready to sacrifice her people in hundreds of thousands to protect her independence ? In Latvia, people are not sure whether Germany would be able to withstand the Russian offensive, and that is why we trust only the USA when it comes to military issues.
Very well said, my Latvian brother. As a Pole, I couldn't say it better.
Man they would sacrefice Baltic states and Poland for the money.
I think we have to stop following Germany and France stupid ideas.
🤦🏼♀️
I think it's only positive that the balance of power gets more dispersed in the future. I think there's always been a sense of unfairness towards the east and the south when the franco-german axis were the only ones deciding both foreign and economic policy, especially when it comes to the monetary policy.
Thats the perk of paying for everyone else
All of east european countrys are parasites. With countrys smaller than the city i live in. There will be no shift to the baltics! They are just to unimportant!
We have had zero percent interest rates for the last ten years. This kind of financial policy was not in the interest of Germany. Low interest rates were necessary to keep Italy alive. So for ten years inflation consumed the buying power of the German saver. So indirectly the German tax payer had to pay, in addition to the regular EU fee, the excessive populist social policies of Italian dumbass politicians. It’s the same in Hungary, Poland and Italy. First there was a tradition of high levels of social care like literal communism. Then the economy was struggling and the countries could not afford these policies anymore, so liberal parties like the one of Donald Tusk scrap social policies to keep the country alive and leading it to sustainable economic development. During this process the people get angry, because they lose some of their social benefits and vote for populists, who don’t have a clue and either spend more than a country could ever spend or turn autocratic. At the end common sense is neglected, because the people can’t look ten years in the future to see that fiscal discipline leads to more wealth for everyone. And now Right wing parties lead struggling countries in the east and south.
100% Agree
With East I agree, but the South had alreay too much influence and have corroded the Euro already.
The thing about climate policy in Czechia. Over here it's not that people don't want clean energy, but realistically we have 2 options in that department here because of the geographical factors. Nuclear, which Austrians and Germans have been sabotaging for years and hydropower which will never be able to supply enough energy. What people want is sensible climate policy, not throw themselves under the bus on the altar of reduce carbon at any cost. The whole new green deal is fundamentally flawed and can't work here. Even if the nuclear wasn't such a stigma point for half the EU nuclear power plants take forever to build or even just expand existing and it's shall we say costly...very costly for such a small country that's heading for recession, so we need to keep the coal power plants active.
While there is no one good super-solution, I believe like Poland Czechia has plenty of running lignite mines, which have the great potential benefit, that they could be changed into pumped storage relatively easily. And in EU if we want to use wind and solar more we will need a ton of storage, including pumped storage. So perhaps the key for Czechia will be to become a "battery" for energy generated elsewhere, so that it can import when power is cheap and export when the price swings up (and with renewables-intensive power system such swings are inevitable).
I accept that this is not something that solves 100% of the problems, but I feel like people often treat used mines as something to be buried, when in reality there are many possible uses for ex mines. The deep shaft mines also provide some opportunities for energy storage, but I won't get into details.
True, nuclear is a great source of power here, it even has strong support among the population, yet German and Austrian activists keep throwing rocks underneath the path to build more of them.
Nothing against Germans or Austrians, just fuck activists
exactly on point. We don't have much wind or sun here, if the world wants us to abandon fossils we need some guarantees regarding accessibility and prices of energy from the rest of the EU. A common European energy market seems like an obvious solution, but Germany doesn't want to share the discounts it was getting from putin so this hasn't been possible so far...
Well "just keep burning coal" is also not a solution, that is simply giving up. Czechia has the potential for more wind & solar for sure but the politics and public is against it so badluck... Our best bet is probably an ambitious nuclear push until the other renewable techs are good enough so that it pushes public opinion.
@@TheBlobik Few points. It isn't that simple. Coal mines are not empty, not by a long shot, so pouring in water would be ecological disaster of quite the magnitude. Secondly there's the issue of national sovereignty, nobody here wants to just become Europe's battery. Options for energy storage might be tempting but unfortunately there are multitude of reasons why that hasn't been done and why it won't be in the near future. It also doesn't help with the problem that we can't shut down the coal plants without being in severe energy deficit meaning Czechia would become reliant on the rest of the EU, that sounds great if you want to go all in on the Union part but not so much if what you envision looks more like lose confederation.
To cut it short, there are environmental factors why that won't work and political factors why even if we could do it, we won't. We have very pro-EU government rn and even they are not willing to just go in and throw away all our strategic integrity.
"Eastern European hawkishness has been vindicated"?? While technically true, it doesn't paint an accuarate picture. A better sentence might be something like: "Eastern Europe has been pointing out an 800 year old Russian behavior pattern. Startling everyone, Western Europe has started to listen."
This is pretty disappointing to hear, I'm an American and a Francophile. I was hoping that the EU could coalesce around France's leadership. France has by far the strongest military in Europe (it's the only Western country besides the US that can project power globally, and does) and its nuclear power plants demonstrate that its people and leaders are pragmatic and don't get caught up in fear mongering. I also don't want the US to have to intervene in Europe. Wherever the US goes on the global stage things just escalate. No one wants big brother telling them they've messed up.
If Europe ever marges into one state it will no longer be US ally. Watch what you wish for really....
France was never US ally to be honest.
Support your true allies and you can find those in Eastern Europe.
I don’t think you should put Norway on the looser side of energy crisis 💶
I don't think Norway counts. They aren't full EU members. What I don't finish to understand is why aren't they becoming the energy providers of Northern Europe. I thought they had gas to spare.
@@germangarcia6118 they aren't full EU memebers? They aren't at all EU members..
At 7:34 there is a mistake. Macedonia should be in the red because here we have month to month 20% inflation. It costs 16 000 denars (260 euro) more to live here than it used to cost one year ago. The minimum wage is 292 euros. Imagine how bad it is.
i think similar situation is for all balkan countries marked as blue. :(
@@Zetornator Yeah the pricses are similar but i remember reading the numbers for Macedonia and they were the highest in the region. But yeah we are all in this shit together
The minimum wage in Romania is 516 EUR/month right now
@@dand7763 yep still low enough for the current prices... here in greece its about 600-700 but its hard for us as well so cant imagine how hard life is for you 2 guys
@@Zetornator a little better ANYWAY than 10 years ago , not to mention before entering EU...not all has these 500 euro /month , i mean in corporations and bigger factories ,wages are more 800 to 1000 euro/month (not in all regions of Romania) the best wages are...in Transylvania region ,of course , the most touristic region of Romania) in Cluj City wages in IT Industry is close to 3000 euro/ month netto! you observed that thousands romanian tourists go in every year in holidays in Greece or Bulgaria...they are rich ;)
Thanks for showing fear, uncertainty, and doubt on a non-issue. Really helpful
Missed the opportunity to say that Southern Europe (Italy and Spain) are becoming more "powerful" too.
Baltic states are incredibly supportive of green transition. Lithuania especially.
That is just because we dont have natural resources. And beeing dependant from someone, not having our own is bad. Same with houses and apartments, more people here have their own, and will buy with a loan, then will be renting for life.
Greece also has won from the crisis. Some projects such as Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, Greece-Bulgaria Gas interconnector and EastMed have been given a push. Hydrocarbon exploration attempts also have started in Greece after a decade of being frozen. Eurasia electricity interconnector also has become extra significant. In addition, due to TAP Greece can import Azeri gas.
The only downside is that due to some disputes in the Aegean with Turkey, a Greco-Turkish war is becoming more likely in the next few years.
Hopefully there isn't another Greco-Turko war, and this gets the Grecian economy back to strength.
There won't be a war, the USA wouldn't allow it
@@jasonhaven7170 Turkey enjoys a rare position where it can in effect, because of its geopolitical and strategic location, act independently of my government. We'll lecture them, we'll warn them, but we won't do much beyond that. As they've shown with their defiance of sanctions for buying russian s400s, targeting of Kurdish groups in neighboring countries, some of which we use as proxies in Syria for example, continued dealings with the Russians and China, overall profiteering off the whole current war and crisis, and setting up long term economic plans with SCO and BRICS, they're able to do as they please. At the very worst, we'll pull our nukes from their country, but sanctioning them, or doing anything negative towards them with NATO, would push them squarely into Russian and Chinese alignment, who they honestly have more in common with, than they've ever had with the EU and US. We're not willing to risk turning Turkey into Russia's gate guardian of the black sea. They've acted with impunity for the most part, and thats not something thats likely to change, especially as they become the new energy hub in the years ahead.
@@QueenMooSuko They're only becoming an energy hub because we in the EU and UK can't give up oil and gas. We need to go all in on renewables and nuclear like France and Sweden and we can leave the Middle-East alone and reduce our dependence on Turkey and Russia.
@@jasonhaven7170 Yeah you guys, even over here in the US, we all should've embraced nuclear energy. However, the unholy alliance of the Greens and Big Oil successfully lobbied against and launched fear and smear campaigns against it for decades.
Wind, solar, and hydroelectic just aren't enough to replace gas and oil, and if the Green's hadnt been tricked by Big Oil (or maybe they're just stupid) into crusading against nuclear, the best green energy option there is that can meet demand, Europe would be in a much more self sufficient state.
Strong and armed Poland this is safe region.
I get how germany is getting weakend economically by the energy crisis, but why would that make the eastern countries more powerful? If germany is hurting economically that will also have implications for the whole of european union, so even in relative terms that supposed power gain would, if at all, be rather minusucle.
It's in the video: Germany has lost a lot of credibility because of their poor decisions that have financed Russias war and increased the EUs vulnerability
@@mskaarupj Did you read what I asked? Just because one gets weaker doesn't automatically mean the others get stronger. Germany made pretty poor decisions for years, that is fact and i never disputed that.
It's also about reputation, worldwide Eastern Europe is gaining respect, in the fact they were correct about Russia, and in their willingness to rise to the occasion on behalf of Ukraine. While Western Europe seems naive, selfish, and feckless. Old powers have failed on many policies they have pushed, seemingly more interested in hassling Great Britain for leaving EU, wagging their fingers at other's for cultural social practices or bending the knee at soccer games, than sufficiently addressing serious concerns that the Western/European community is facing.
Reputation has consequences, and it should have even more so.
Power comes from the perception of power.
Germany has weak, untrustworthy and corrupt leadership, both in politics and the business sector. Combine that with the bloated and slow bureaucracy, weak IT infrastructure and an aging population.
Companies will move out of Germany at a faster pace, and increase investments in Eastern Europe, it will make Germany weaker and Eastern Europe stronger. There will ne no more need for young people from Eastern Europe to go and work in Germany, if they can have it better at home.
Basically Germany is Europe's Japan, but it can't run on infinite public debt.
No eastern European EU member is a net contributor to the EU and the biggest recipient of E.U funds is Poland at 11 billion Euros. The only 2 countries with veto powers over all EU decisions are Germany and France. The swing vote to any EU decision is provided by a combination of Benelux states, Italy and Spain.
Thanks!
Eastern europe? Finally Portugal will shine
@@petergecse3550 who
TLDR: "Obviously power isn't measurable in any definite sense".
Watts has entered the chat.
The root of this apparently imminent power shift is the skepticism all Eastern European countries had towards Russia. All of us were severely burned by them in a direct manner in at least one way or another. When this war started, all I was seeing from my peers on my side of the world was a frustrated "what the hell did you expect?!" as a reaction, whereas whenever I'd talk with like-minded people my age from Western Europe or even the USA, their reaction was closer to genuine surprise that something like this could happen.
In general, before the war I would see a lot of subtle dismissals towards my personal distrust of Russia and especially Putin, likely people writing me off as some sort of ultranationalist.
While I sadly cannot say that my country, Bulgaria, can now proudly exclaim an "I told you so!", since pro-Russian behavior is regrettably common in Bulgaria, I'd at least say that there is a very good chunk of us forward thinking individuals who should very much be included when talking about Poland and the Baltics being vindicated. A hopeful estimate on my part would be a 70/30 split between sensible individuals and putinophiles, with the latter compensating for the disparity by being 100 times as loud and outspoken about their political views.
I think its more than just painful history. I mean Germany brought a lot of suffering onto the European continent as well.
But are our neighbors actually saying "Ha I knew Germany is gonna start another WW!"?
I think at least we have tried to heal the wounds, some may say we have done enough, some may say we havent dont enough. Regardless, at least we are trying.
Did Russia ever try to heal the wounds, right the wrong, pay reparations, or at leaste sincerely apologize for their atrocities in the past? I believe not.
@@jonson856, du hast völlig Recht, Bruder. Russland und Deutschland sind in diesem Sinn gar nicht zu vergleichen.
@@jonson856 Russia apologized after the fall of the USSR🤷♀️
@@Mari_________ yeah? What did they do? Surely you can give me references
Everyone said the US was fear mongering for saying Russia was going to attack. Not to mention long before that, Trump roasted Western Europe for giving Russia tons of money while the US spends tons of money protecting them from Russia. So no, the US was well aware
It's unfair to say Germany didn't want to send lethal aid. That was before the war actually started. The first weapons were approved 2 days after it started. The helmet thing was before the invasion began and once it began they changed their tune pretty quickly, all things considered.
Except that's they keep sabotaging sending aid to Ukraine?
@@HUEHUEUHEPony They've sent artillery, rocket launchers, and air defense missiles! You're completely blind if you're still saying they're "sabotaging sending aid."
10:07 As a Czech person, I must say that this is a too nice of a way of putting it. "Against economic ambitions" should be replaced with "against the most dominant parties' interests (corrupt conservative SPOLU and corrupt populist ANO) because they're all stuck in the past and don't want change of any kind even though it would be economically beneficial to us in the long run... while not giving two shits about the climate."
The time has come for Spain to take a larger role in EU and international politics especially in regards to latin america and northern africa
For this, Spain would have to become the payer and not continue to be paid. I'm just saying 70% youth unemployment
@@MonkeyDRuffy82 70%? More like 243%
Spain under the leftists is a mess from a common sense point of view. Lo siento, compañeros.
Great video but you forgot to mention in case of France, droughts during summer played an important reason why France was forced to shut down or reduce nuclear capacity. Not enough water.
Same will be haplening next summer. Its the new normal climate for Europe.
also cause of the Greens party which asked to stop them and micro cracks in our nuke plants
I find it funny, that when you speaking of german U-turns, icons used are stil left hand side traffic u-turns.
Beyond traffic systems, its simply unlikely that Germany would turn left when in doubt…
U turns are not a bad thing, It shows the will to change if you see that something is not working rather than going the wrong way till the end like other states do all the time, that's why Germany has maybe a dip right now but will come back really easily like always.
When others are relying on a team effort, especially from countries that assert themselves as leaders, past failures is policy and current feckless & selfish behavior isn't endearing during such a crisis.
They haven’t changed. They continue to kow tow to the Chinese.
It came back thanks to Marshall Plan... Now it goes directly against US... This may not end well for Germany... Guess who becomes now US ally in Europe?
"Power isn't measurable"
James Watt: 🗿🗿🗿
Poland's power increase has been exaggerated somewhat. They are still a net beneficiary of EU funding. They are also in violation of EU law due to their democratic backsliding and in fact pay constant fines over it. And since EU does not have a security dimension, their military buildup does not really help them in EU policymaking. France and Germany have the power because their money keeps the EU going and that has not changed. It is possible that Eastern Europe manage to stop EU security integration, but is that really a win? It is also possible that France and Germany form a nucleus of European military and gradually expand that into other member states. But that would still take years to accomplish. But finally it has to be noted that many EU policymakers have noted that the dependence on American military might is an embarrassment to EU and cannot last forever. Things are in flux.
Being able to take alot of money from someone doesn’t mean you are weak. Just like the EU takes it’s military protection from the US for free. Now western Europe also have a nice buffer to the east and the east knows who it is who will really help them when the time comes.
... and why Germany have money ? , because of cheap gas , now with gas from Russia gone and sanctions , Germany will loose a loot of cash = influence , France can hold good , but France is NATO sceptic country ... and after all France & Germany cant wait to back to bed with Russia and majority of EU coutries dont want that .
@@TheBooban Poland has the potential to become an important European power for sure. Their economy has greatly increased in the last 20 years. But politically and diplomatically, they are isolated in EU due to their Eurosceptic government. They can benefit from EU money to a degree... but while they are a beneficiary, they are also not as influential as the nations who pay. Sorry, that is the way it is. If you want my 2 cents, once Poland elects a more internationally oriented government, their power will increase. Until that, they are going to be isolated. Their only EU ally was Hungary but that is now gone too.
@@majormoolah5056 you cannot isolate a nation of 40m with its army becoming one of the most powerful… Poland has also become the most important American ally in NATO, absolutely nobody will even think of isolating Poland these days
@@bartboructravels1943 If by isolation we mean North Korea, then no. But isolation inside Europe, of course yes. The only close ally Poland had was Hungary. They used to veto for each other so EU would not sanction them due to their anti-democratic politics. But that broke down when Orban decided to back Putin. Poland has currently very little chances to get their proposals passed in Brussels. Again, Poland taking more money from EU than they are putting in and refusing to follow EU policy on the independence of courts or treatment of minorities or ecology etc. American focus is and will be on China so Europe needs to stick together... if only Poland would realise that.
Small correction at 6:50: Warri is in Nigeria, not Niger
Sounds like a big correction.
It'd be nice if you've talked about the recent economic woes in Poland for our government (rising bond rates, decreasing supply of cheap credit, inflation, intentionally underreported debt).
yeah, I'd like a balanced view of Poland, all I'm currently aware of besides its squabbling with the eu is its military
I am not sure if "underreported" is the right term here. The debt is fully reported to the EU, only for local methodology part of the debt got excluded (which I am not endorsing), but its not like this is somehow hidden - anyone who wants to know can get this information from EU data. Unlike for example the debt that evaporated (aka, got stashed under the carpet of the retirement fund) by the previous government.
Your whole current government is completly fucked and tries to demantle democracy. I doubt that you economic situation should be your biggest concern.
@@TheBlobik the problem is that it doesn't have to go through parliament, the executive can basically just take on as much debt as they'd like
@@TheBlobik I'm pretty sure the previous government has also reported that debt to the EU
Poland isn't that negatively affected from the energy crisi.....the main area energy prices has gone up is in the south. Poland still uses lots of coal for power and the natural gas from russia has already been replaced by the new norwegian-polish pipeline. Inflation is Poland is mainly driven by daily supplies not energy
the last remark on Polands lack of environmental ambition is somewhat a failure of analysis. They have an ongoing program to repolace their coal gen with nuclear power with the next 10/15 years, already have chosen suppliers, and are now studying locations for the NPPs. That will make Poland drop Coal probably sooner than Germany. The curernt power shift might be bad for Green Parties, but not necessarily for the environment.
as much as i dislike my Polish gov, i have to explain that they are not against climate action per se. they are just opposing this issue to be used as a reason for big "establishment" countries to screw the smaller ones as it usually tended to happen throughout history...
Given their anti-democratic and illiberal agenda and propaganda in general, you choose to believe them on this subject?
@@lours6993 I think it's more to do with the fact that Germany decides what classifies as " green" energy. Total coincidence that till recently, it used to be russian gas with an addition of renewables.
Isn't that Germany opposing same price for russian gas for all EU countries?
@@martalukaszjastrzab760 Agee that the Germany’s definition of gas conveniently as ‘green’ is ridiculous and disingenuous. But it would take more than that for me to trust the would-be fascists in power in Poland. Please change your gouvernement and all will be well.
@@lours6993 true, they use that negative rhetoric for domestic use. The future of Poland is in EU and NATO.
I live in UK, and I don't vote in Polish elections.
Current government is not "fascist" it's opportunistic and cynical.
They need "enemy" to rule, anyone from immigrants, Germany to judges. They're slowly running out of enemies to blame.
German vague9 to put it mildly) stance on russia and war in Ukraine is a free gift for them.
@@martalukaszjastrzab760 ‘Current government is not fascist; its opportunistic and cynical. They need an ‘enemy’ to rule, anyone from immigrants, Germany to judges..’. Sorry to break it to you but that, together with dismantling democratic institutions and checks on their power, is pretty much the textbook definition of Fascism.
i dont see any compelling arguments that germany is much weaker than before. Afterall its still the biggest economy with the biggest population and good hightech basis. With its military reform there might also be the possibility of the foundation of a European army. The skyshield initiativ was pushed by germany for example. the new european fighterjet is also by large part being developed by germany. And also many other navalprojekts with norway. I think people in germany treat scholz unfair, as he faaar better then merkel. And much better than Friedrich Merz thats for sure!
I agree, except that Scholz is supposed to be better than Merkel, i think he is pretty much the same. He just seems so much worse right now, because holding out and waiting is not the kind of politics you can do in times like these.
@@BensenDoe but this is exactly what Merkel was doing. The Current goverment is doing much much more than what a Merkel goverment would be doing in the same time. Look at the speech He gave Yesterday in the Bundestag. Merkels politics can be discribed as " weiter so"...
@@karlfechner9602 don't get me wrong, i hated Merkel and the energy crisis we see now is predominantly thanks to her and Altmaier. Yet not to forget Scholz was vice-chancellor in that coalition. I heard the speech, though to me it seems he wants praise for patching holes. Idk surely these are challenging times and who ever is in charge will have a hard time. I personally don't think he has what it takes, but I also thought so before the war in Ukraine. Would we be in a worse state with the likes of Merz, no doubt.
@@BensenDoe Agreed. Well see after the war If he has a Vision for the future but for now the coalition was occupied fixing Things of the past. And there where plenty. Im Just afraid that CDU might win the next election so i feel like i need to Support SPD eventho I dont really Like them. Its Just that realisticly He, habeck or bearbock, or CDU will be the next Kanzler and there he seems to be the best Option. Maybe kühnert will be more influencial by then...
Well, how terrible Merkel reign was, we see now in the fruits it brought. But Scholz was for some time a part of Merkel's government, so he aint much better either.
And I would not overhype the "high tech" argument. Yes, German industry is modern. But there are many caveats and in many areas they are only "modern enough", not "bleeding edge".
Of course, due to its size and amassed wealth the inertia of German state is incredible, but it has been maintaining its position on inertia for some time already. So while it will not be overtaken overnight, the distance between Germany and Eastern EU is shrinking faster now, and the political potential of Germany took the strongest and swiftest hit.
There isn't a chance on earth that Poland ever becomes more than a regional player in the EU.
Germany and France alone have a combined population of 150 million people. Poland makes up 25% of that, and even more worryingly its population is projected to fall to 23 million by the end of this century, while Germany and France are still projected to be 143 million.
That isn't even including the fact that Italy, Spain, Netherlands are all powers in the western bloc too.
It depends on timeframe, and the future immigration policies.
Germany and France without immigration would not hold strong demographically either. If Poland improves its immigration policy the forecast might become obsolete. For example it is unknown what the effect of war in Ukraine will be in this regard - the current situation might drive a resettlement from the east into Poland, or it might only cause temporary migrations
@@TheBlobik Hermany and France have still far higher birthrates especially France
3 sea counties union will have double of people than German French union and will not needed German French partnerships
@@TheBlobik Germany and France are a lot more demographically stable than Poland even without immigration. France is currently still at net growth of about 80,000 per year.
@@robertrobski1013 How on earth do you reach that conclusion?
3 seas initiative: 112 million
Germany France: 151 million
Even in 2100 - Germany and France will have 140 million people while 3 seas will have about 68 million. Theres just no chance.
Shifting power from west to east or vice versa is stupid, we should all stand together now and have all the same amount of power in EU. I think we in Czechia already realized that, but especially Poland and Hungary want to be always in opossition against everything, which is wrong. But it's good that not only countries like France, Germany and Italy can lead EU now, unfortunately UK was our biggest ally in EU and we really miss them.
EU is a laughing stock. France and Germany will lead everyone down the drain
As a German, I am observing the situation in Ukraine and across Europe. It is true that Europe and especially Germany has massive energy problems. In my opinion, economic growth will take a hit but not destroy Germany like the rest of Europe. In fact, one can see some good and interesting developments in the whole "annihilation fantasies" of the German economy. Here one can probably say "death said live longer!". But these need time and will help Germany and allow it to grow in the medium to long term. On the subject of European autonomy, one can agree with the French in part, whereby the French mean a French-influenced EU and that is traditionally not a goal of Germany and so one stands with the Eastern Europeans. On the subject of the government and its re-election, one can say "It's difficult!". The so-called "traffic light" (red/yellow/green) is heavily criticized for its behavior in the energy crisis, in Ukraine politics and dependencies. In fact, one has to say that the "respected Angela Merkel" is to blame for not being able to diversify the German economy for 16 years and simply sitting it out. Be it social cohesion, see the energy dependencies or the de facto sell-out of German industry WITHOUT an alternative plan for Germany and further for Europe. This politician failed in all fields for 16 years and let the German carry her weight. As the former chancellor and European Helmut Kohl said back then, "This woman simply has no vision for Germany and Europe!".
Angela Merkel screwed not up not only Germany but whole of Europe in every aspect.
North African countries should leverage their position as one of the few gas exporting nations close enough to the EU to negotiate more favorable deals.
Don't worry, they will.
They just gotta lure them to build the pipe line. After that they have have the same power as russia they can as easily shut the pipe.
And most of the country is muslim country. After world cup would EU force LGBT acceptness into those country? No mostlikely. They will suck their oil and shut up about “humanity issue of lgbt”
Imagine your lgbt value put over for oil what a joke
Hope Spain can benefit from all this long-term!
Why Germany support so much Russia?? Ribbentrop - Molotov 2.0??
As an American, I’m hopeful that Macron’s security initiative isn’t dead but just on ice since EU policy changes for defensive technology development would take years to mature and likely wouldn’t impact the Ukrainian war.
But ultimately a stronger EU would improve the defensive capabilities of the entire western world by allowing the US to reallocate resources and reduce the number of tactical decisions that need to be made by the pentagon. Which I think everyone wants.
Forget Macron's initiative. France will do it only to gain influence but will never use it. It will worsen defences even... European countries arm themselves very fast. Poland alone bought already 1200 tanks and 500 HIMARS like systems plus planes helicopters and moe. That is real defensive capability of Europe in 2 years.
I keep finding myself quite thoroughly enjoying your videos., even with the level of seriousness some of the vids might have..Sooooo thankyou kindly for what your doin' here..
I think Germany and France have somewhat lost their positionality in the power structure of the EU at the moment, but Poland and the Baltics are far from replacing them.
How? Do we have viever commisars now? Fewer seats in Parliament?
Arent't we still bringing 26% of EU budget (germany alone)?
I don’t understand why you fail to mention Romania in videos such as this. It would be interesting to hear an outside take on things.
They usually don't mention corrupt and mediocre countries like ours.
@@valevisa8429 yo have some respect ._.
I would add that Macron idea is worth considering in Eastern Europe, but especially Poles, was very suspicous of French approach to security because we felt that French and Germans will trade our security and economic intrest for better deal with Russia first they will got this opportunity. That`s why Eastern Europe prefer US (they can betray us too, but US intrest is more aligned with Eastern Europe, than Western Europe is).
You'll see when USA will tell Ukraine to stop war and start negociaton with Russia. Being dependant on third parties is never a good idea.
@@Rilcy2003sorry, but the Putin’s Russia is the invader and they need to leave Ukraine. That’s it
As a Spaniard, I'd like to give ourselves a pat in the back, but also knock ourselves a peg. On the one hand, the ongoing disputes between Morocco and Algeria have had some issues around. Before, Morocco and Algeria have been at odds, due to Moroccan illegal settlements in Western Sahara, a colonial Spanish province as recognised by the UN. But recently, Spain, which had been more attuned to Algeria (because of their gas), has tipped into Morocco's balance, which has upset their eastern neighbours.
Previously, these disputes (of which Algeria was in the issue because many Saharan refugees are located in Algeria) had gone to the point where Algeria cut the oil supplies running through Moroccan land, to starve them from gas. However, this has affected Spain because the pipeline currently being used holds less capacity than the one running through Morocco. And there had been some issues and warnings from Algeria, as they didn't want Spain to bring gas to Morocco.
The positive story from here is that because of our isolated state in terms of energy connections (due to France, actually) in terms of gas, we could achieve, alongside Portugal, what's called the "Iberian exception". For those who don't know how prices are set up, it's on an auction. However, unlike an actual auction, when you ask people around who gives more energy for less money, you order them around and give everyone THE SAME PRICE PER MEGAWATT HOUR. Which is bonkers. And the Iberian exception allows us to bypass gas, consider it as if it's at 80€/MWh and pay the actual price outside the auction.
And it's been so successful that Italy tried unsuccessfully to get it (couldn't, as they have much better gas connections) and the EU is trying to set a similar feature. The issue is that the EU is proposing a much higher price, which is unlikely to pass (IMO, it should be 0€ towards the price setting and pay the price outside the auction, as all other actors in the auction), but the plan was a mostly positive one.
Polands central!! We are not Eastern!!!
7:34
Norway *probably* shouldn't have been marked as red there.
While southern and eastern Norway has been affected, northern and western Norway have more than enough energy.
And we're exporting all of our gas, at high prices.
Norway is in the same boat the US is in. Selling massive amounts of hydrocarbons to Allies. Norway will likely come out ahead.
@@cmdr1911 Not quite.
Norway has a smaller economy and our currency isn't a reserve currency.
We're struggling with the same inflation that the rest of Europe as most of the countries we're usually importing from is struggling, leading to reduced production and Increased prices.
We also have better leaders.
So there's similarities but the situation isn't the same.
@@Luredreier I knew inflation was hitting harder in Europe. Kinda surprised with Equinor being as large as it is it isn't helping to offset, I think Equinor's revenue is like 10% of GDP. I consulted for them in the past and they were a very good company to work for. I know the area I am in is doing very well from increased natural gas prices. Schools and local governments are picking up revenue, locals companies are selling more to the oil and gas operators and the operators are hiring again.
@@cmdr1911 While some parts of the country relies heavily on the oil industry, other parts are hardly involved with it at all.
And the oil revenues made by the government is saved up in the pension fund, not used here and now.
The government is only allowed to use 3% of the pension fund pr year in their budgets, or essentially the dividends as the fund on average makes about 3-4% profit I think.
@@Luredreier That's because you're clever.
Everytime I see "eastern EU" in a title I get excited to watch the video. But as always, it's just about Poland again... The news about the East are always Poland here, Poland there, maybe some Hungary sometimes, and if you're lucky the Baltics.
It’s because Eastern EU(rope) is way too broad of a category, a remnant of a bygone era. Things that happen in Ukraine hardly affect the Balkans, and vice versa. Political commentators these days should make an effort to drop Cold War era mental maps and divide the region into at least 2 parts (North-East with Poland, Baltics, Ukraine etc. and South-East with ex-Yugoslavia, Romania, Bulgaria etc), if not more.
Well Poland is the strongest there… would be weird talking or mentioning other countries with less “power”
@@ColorPandora Would be a better idea. Or, in this case, if you were talking about Poland, then mention Poland only, not "Eastern Europe".
@@bartboructravels1943 Why not just say "Poland is becoming more powerful" instead? When someone says "Eastern Europe" I expect to hear about Eastern Europe, not Poland over and over again.
In Poland, there is a general consensus that’s states that we cannot trust anyone even the west. We have a grudge against everyone except a couple of eastern countries including the Baltic’s and Hungary. We have historical grudges against Russia, Germany, UK and France from WW2. They are basically considered useless when it comes to doing anything in the interest of the EU and only working for themselves. They rejected early warnings from eastern countries that underlined the dependency on Russia. Now the effects are visible.
Trust no one
Is that why your country is so parasitic?
@It`s okay. Remember East Europe is poor thanks to w europe, countrys like Pol Lit Commonwealth or K of Hungary used to be great powers but they was destroied by ther western neighbours
@@HedgehogZone yes☺️
Without France Poland wouldnt even exist.
Debt sharing? Why? It would be like me and my neighbor having to share our debt but having no influence over how much money each of us spends and earns each day.
Talk about a recipe for disaster.
Poland here - if we are rising in power, then I don't see it ;p
Well, can't really blame Merkel leaving on elections. After all, she announced years before the 2021 election she wouldn't run again and there obviously would be a new chancellor. And tbh, Scholz is better than some others who had good chances (Söder, Laschet, Merz... depending on who won the race for CDU leadership and union chancellor candidacy)
Well yeah, Scholz is within the best of the worst. But just because everybody sucked, doesn't mean that the least bad option is suddenly good now.
So while I agree that Germany chose one of the "lesser evils", it's still sad that that is the choice Germans had to make. The last election was a joke.
Honestly I am so very glad she gone. I respected her so much through the 2010’s as she felt like the leader Europe needed through some tough times
However hindsight is 20/20, and now I’m just unbelievably disgusted at how weak she was in Russia. She did more than any European politician in the last decade to leave them open to Russian influence and her unrelenting trust in Putin has left Europe and particularly Germany extremely vulnerable. If she were still in office I have no doubt she would be just as weak now as she was during the Crimea annexation in 2014
Scholz is weaker on Russia than I would like but still an improvement nonetheless
@@MacTac141 she was generally really weak on nearly all topics. Her politics was just waiting it out and the other put immense strain on the EU (Greece and the migration crisis).. the complete denial that she created a huge push effect for the whole world to migrate etc.
@@MacTac141 I agree with you, Merkel was a respectable and clever politician, but from my point of view she was a bad leader on the european stage, because she lacked a clear course or vision for Europe, being almost "too pragmatic" and avoiding to take a clear stand on almost any topic.
She mostly introduced "german-centric-solutions" for "european-problems", trying to get as many benefits as possible of germanys role as head of the EU, while avoiding many responsibilities coming along with it. Of course, perusing your own interests above others is daily-bread in international politics.
But now many of these short-sighted and sometimes dysfunctional german-centric solutions come down, damaging germanys international reputation and influence.
@@helmutkohl8336 she didn’t put Germany first. She opened the flood gates to foreigners and that’s why we got fed up and kicked her out. Sweden too. UK too. Italy also. Enough is enough!
@TLDR News EU I really do not like this trend where you post, in all sense, speculative "news". Do mind in all aspects that eastern countries have more say in the matter of the war in Ukraine. But to say that these EU members now have more "power" is just a vague, disproperate way to describe how complex the EU political system works.
The reasoning that Germany and the frugal four were against debts sharing is for the cause of economic gain. As they are the only countries that provide a positive balance to the Eu budget. I can't see how that is a reason to strengthen eastern power, as the economic power still lays in the north/western end.
Stop with this speculative bias reporting, its not productive nor entertaining
Germany and the Frugal are the only ones to provide a positive alliance to the EU budget? Mate, you’re a joke. Get your facts straight.
@@tixien What do you mean by "positive alliance"?
I have not really been impressed by any of the western leaders (or any world leaders really) as of late, that said I don't really know any other European leaders well enough to determine if they are any better. I think the biggest struggles in the EU will remain 1) that one country wants to gain more where another country wants to give less 2) the differences in values. Also I have to take "the rise of power in eastern countries" with a grain of salt, sure they are rising but not that much I don't think. I haven't checked on what every country contributes (monetary) and benefits (monetary) to/from the EU, but I'm pretty sure the last time I checked (which admittedly I think was about 4 years ago) eastern countries did not do very well on those charts. Now I know this might have changed so if it did great, I don't mind more power be given to eastern countries. Nor is money the only way to contribute. That said I do think this says a lot where power in the EU comes from, since without NET contributors there would not be an EU to begin with.
Perhaps if I find the time I'll research it again, but the last time it took me pretty long.
If eastern countries, wouldnt take that money, there would be noone who gives it away. Also, contributes take that money back in other form, then just suitcase of cash.
Some say where it comes from, because Poland and Hungary do not receive any funds from the EU.
3:00 Lets all appreciate that massive burn from the Latvian Deputy Minister
Could have also mentioned the massive gas deposits in eastern mediterranean and how Cyprus, Israel and Greece, along with Egypt, want to build a pipeline that can support 10% of EU's needs.
Each time someone does, eastern Europe finds themselves in a set of awful civil wars with over a million dead. I'm praying that nobody turns their head that way
Fair enough. Germany has been blocking some important reforms for years, however I think we still absolutely need Marcon's "Strategic Autonomy" long term. Also I think its extremly foolish to now buy weapons from the U.S. instead of producing our own. That country seems extremely unstable at the moment.
Another episode of informational and interesting analysis. It's never a dull moment when it comes to European political intrigues.
Power will still remain with Germany and France. The war Ukraine doesn’t change the gdp and population numbers of Germany and France. Eastern Europe will experience significant population decline in the coming decades.
Not if the Ukrainians stay here.
The ukrainians drive throught poland to germany. Nobody stays in poland!
@@HedgehogZone bullshit
@@HedgehogZone Oh yes they do stay. some 1,5 to 2 million of them allegedly (not taking into account the ones who were already here prior to the invasion). Even if one mistrusts official stats, their presence can simply be observed when strolling the streets of major cities...
.
As for the log term demographic impact of that... Well, we'll see. Lots of variables at play here.
Power being diffused is always a good thing - that being said, Europe needs to be more united on human rights, independent non political judiciary and the promotion of more democracy.
10:00 I'm not so sure about that last point. I understand Eastern Europe is less concerned about environmental issues, but the war has shown that relying on hydrocarbon imports leaves a nation vulnerable. There's a strategic advantage in using renewables.
it's cool when country has big potential for renewables. Poland is example of country that gets short end of the stick energywise - low potential for renewables, nuclear is long way in plans so what's left is either shitty coal or gas (unless smth new pops up). Not going through with first nuclear plant during communism bits us in the ass now
Green energy is a death sentence. Our priority is energy independence through a combination of nuclear energy and fossil fuels, and not the suicidal climate religion of the western elites who view humanity as the carbon they wish to reduce, else we incur the wrath of the sun god
While you are certainly right, that the EU will be less centric on Germany and France, I can’t imagine that any of two will diminish. Rather France, Germany and Poland will form a trio
After all Germany is not only the most significant economy, it is also well connected internationally
Economically, Italy, Spain and the Netherland are more important than Poland.
@@alioshax7797 currently, yes. But Poland will function as a hub for Eastern Europe to France and Germany. It’s average age is younger and the wages are lower. So it offers a perspective to grow, while Italy and Spain will, most likely, freeride on Europe’s economic strength. The Netherlands doesn’t produce much, but benefits on European exports. Therefore it is unlikely that it will stay stronger than Poland
As a Pole i would love to see more cooperation between Germany France and Poland :)
@@SpiderQueen888 let's hope it will happen. But it would require pro European governments in each country. I don't think that France and Germany would hand Poland more influence, if it is sending anti European signals and blocks further integration. And of course it depends on the composition of the next German and French governments. If those turn nationalistic, they'd probably regard EU politics as a zero-sum game, meaning that they'd assume, that any shared power ist lost power
@@EarnestBunbury Yes, i could not summarise this better myself. I hope one day to see positive changes and more integrated Europe, though i am aware that many do not share my dream.
Merkle is responsible for leaving Germany so dependent on Russia for fuel, not Schultz.
Well yes but actually no. There was a cross party consensus in favor of Russian gas then.
@@MrFrage123 let by Merkel
@@Sean-nj5gh germany is not a dictatorship. It was governed by merkels and scholzs parties.
Southern Europe 🇪🇸 🤝 🇵🇹🤝 🇮🇹
Perhaps "Influence" would be a better definition than "Power".
When lil yachty took the wock to Poland that definitely shifted the power dynamic
Merkel might have been respected, but don’t forget that she’s one of the reasons why we are in this tragedy
Also, Germany is repeating its mistakes in China
Power at its core is all about economic power. You can achieve short term power bursts with a heavy focus in military power, such as the old Prussia when it had to fight off most of the major powers in Europe. However by 1806 this short term military benefit was lost. A country can choose not to use its power, which is probably the case for Germany between 1989 and 2021. This can give economically weaker powers great competitive power, which may be why the east seems more powerful.
What can I say, Eastern Europe knows russia the best, and definitely don't want history to repeat itself. While West was sick of pacifism, and was thinking, that peace would last forever or that 🇺🇸 would simply help just in case. Not only they had been cutting their military, but also let many russians dirty things to slide. By simply reading history, shows how fragile and short peace is. And look, where are we right now... All, what West had to do, was not to cut their military or even continues expanding it, but simply maintain 2% of NATO recommendations. it should be common sense, for maintain peace, have strong military... Eastern Europe knew this, but we are to small or poor... Glad, to have neighbor like Poland, perhaps not as rich like Germany, France, ect. but aiming to become main power house in Europe. and also is part of eastern.
you missed a key element on France: there is no majority at the parliament. This limits dramatically Macron's ability to govern, further weaking the French German leadership
Why Eastern Europe is becoming more influential, meanwhile Spain in the thumbnail 😂
Eastern Europa 💪🏽🇵🇹🇧🇾🇪🇸
I think it's going to be more of a stronger influence rather than power shift. Because while reputations have been damaged (especially for Germany), the facts are that Germany and France have the largest economies, biggest populations, dedicated to EU integration and two of the founders of the union. Poland isn't dedicated to further integration, its democratic status has been weakened and before the 24th of February invasion had quite some conflicts with the EU.
And to nuance a bit: while Germany has been slow in some areas (such as the delivering of weapons to UA), you can't really overstate the magnitude of change in Germany that has been caused by this war. And while Marcon's call to not humiliate Russia's naive, it is a clear reference back to WW I when the humiliation of the Germans became the feeding ground for what would lead to WW II. The next RU government isn't going to be better than the current one; it's not going to be democratic or more positive towards the west and especially towards countries such as UA. But that is the path RU chose and also how RU works, there's just no chance of an improvement in relations with RU. All we really can do is prepare, to make sure that they understand that they cannot start a war ever again.
Regarding your final points:
a) I really hope there isn't going to be more Atlanticism, because the Americans are a liability. We can't go without them nor should we aim to break with them, but even more increased dependency is a serious risk. For example, one would dread to think what this year would have looked like if there still had been a Trump presidency, someone who on the record called the EU a 'foe'. We really do need more European sovereignty if we want to survive
b) Absolutely no chance on debt sharing, that really wouldn't fly with the 'frugal four'. Eurobonds are becoming more accepted, but debt sharing will never happen. Also take note that debts are much more of an issue to the southern countries rather than central and eastern countries.
c) Green ambitions could go any direction, but most likely will keep moving forward. Perhaps bit less ambitious, but pretty much all countries understand it has to happen. Especially because we have few fossil fuels (or it is too expensive to extract them).
As unlikely as it might seem, i think it's wise to keep an open mind towards possible future more democratic power in Russia. Maxim Katz, a former Yabloko politician and prolific anti-government UA-camr (who has English subtitles btw), sees it most likely that democratic forces are likely to be the net benefactors of massive shakeup in Russia that he believes to be slowly brewing, and he believes their influence on politics is likely to become at least tangible. But it may not be possible without support by Soros and EU of such political organisations and free press.
But it doesn't mean that you shouldn't be hard on Russia right now, you absolutely should go as hard as you can. Humiliation is entirely par for the course, indeed it's desirable. It's about what to do afterwards and how to play the carrot and stick game later. It may indeed be possible to create such incentives as to turn the humiliation inwards towards particular aspects of society that lead to this in order to heal it. This worked with Germany after WW2.
I think Germany still has reputation to spare.
@@germangarcia6118 Not in 1945 it didn't!
@@SianaGearz You must be American.
@@germangarcia6118 Absolutely not. I'm an ethnic Bulgarian, grew up in the northeast of Ukraine, near Russian border, most of that when it was still Soviet Union, and spent most of my life since in Germany, where i am at the moment, and i speak all the relevant languages. I do keep in touch with people from my city in Ukraine, and can you even imagine - i remember every street there, the way they stood, with buildings largely around 200 years old; well they are pretty much burned down now, i've seen the pictures and the videos, and it's a very visceral sort of feeling, pain, anger, because i know first hand what these places looked like.
There is indeed no sense of humiliation for defeat here in Germany, but there is an insane sense of humiliation for letting Hitler come to power, start the war, criminally kill millions of people by nationality or other traits. Fact is, defeat is what Germany experienced, it wasn't swift but it was very very decisive. This is the desirable sort of end result, should Russia not come to its senses. Decisive victory over Russia, and then Marshall plan sort of stuff to rebuild it back into an ally. And you understand, if i went by my feelings, i'd have every single Russian burned down; but that's just not the right way to deal with it, it's neither fruitful nor ethically defensible.
I would say the fact Eastern Europe stands up against the migration from the south, is also a big factor. As in the East they stand more united against it. While in the West the people are more split on the issue and we know how diversity causes divides in people and makes them less united.
So... The southern states have energy to export which gives them more power within EU and Macron stayed as the "de facto leader" of EU since everyone else was elected out. How exactly does that give the Baltics and Poland any more power?
This is France and Germany does not want Ukraine in the UE. Ukraine in EU would shift a lot of power from France and Germany to Poland and Ukraine.
Germany and France loosing grip on EU is a good thing in my opinion. Finally countries like Spain, Italy and Poland might have something to say in EU. Poland gained a lot of friends after the instant response to war in Ukraine, countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Finland know they can relay on Poland in times of need and this is bringing them countries closer together. Especially Polish-Lithuanian relations are something to look at as they haven't been that good since the 18th century.
“polish-Lithuanian relations” it’s commonwealth time
@@karlfranzemperorofmandefil5547 I love it when Poland and Lithuania commonwealthed at everyone, it's trully the moment ever
It will drive out Germany and France who currently pay for the EU.
Imo we expanded east too fast and the veto right for every country is a mistake.
I'm really happy to get closer with Lithuania, never really understood why our relations were so severed, seemed petty in my opinion, but perhaps I'm ignorant of sth.
@@seb_5969 US&UK will be happy to replace them right away on much better terms. for too long Germany was using EU's bureaucracy as an excuse to exploit the "new" members ("new" in case of Poland, Czechia, Slovy and Hungary does not make much sense anymore as these countries have now been members for more than a half of EU's existence). But yeah: this shows the true face of Germany and France...