Bear Market, Recession, Layoffs: Lots Of Ways For 2024 To Get Worse | John Rubino
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- Опубліковано 10 січ 2024
- SUBSCRIBE to John's Substack at rubino.substack.com/
How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially?
The markets seem confident it's quite stable.
But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election.
What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk.
Sign up for John's Substack at rubino.substack.com/
#recession #bearmarket #layoffs
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SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel (including this interview with John)
Adam. I get your thought about the Great Taking and pitchforks coming out. But what percent of population has those financial assets? The top 20pct. It won't affect 80pct of population. Plus I think it will only happen if there's a major financial depression or collapse. Then the gov't comes in and gives everyone Basic income to squash the riots. The 0.1 get their corporations, the other 19.9 end up like the bottom 80pct.... or something like that.
Hi Adam, Love your work....If possible please arrange for a debate between luke gromen who advocates for a weeker dollar and brent johnson who advocates for a stronger dollar going ahead...thanks anyways for educating us on the financial systems.
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This guy isn't avoiding the elephants in the room. Bravo for speaking reality.
“The aristocracy harvesting the peasants”, precise way to word it. The financial system, the abuse of the USD’s global reserve currency status by way of limitless printing and debt accumulation has created an unstoppable oligarchy. Printed money knows only one way to flow..up. I’m afraid the current structure and monetary philosophy of this nation won’t change until the dollar’s status is genuinely threatened.
I don't want you to take this as an attack on you, but more as a challenge to some of your thoughts. How is "printed money" any different than any other money? Even if we had a currency backed by precious metals and the Treasury was thus unable to just print more money without more precious metals to back it, how would that make the flow of currency in the economy any different than it is now? 19th century barons accumulated staggering fortunes at a time when there was no central bank and the gooberment didn't print money. I think that comment reveals a poor understanding of how rich people got rich in the first place. Secondly, the wealth disparity that even people on the Right seem to decry now, is a lot LESS than it has been historically in the US. Also, how is a threat to the reserve status going to change fiscal policy? Explain how that would work in your mind? No nation that has faced a choice of declaring bankruptcy or devaluing its currency has ever chosen to declare bankruptcy. 100% of them chose to print money and devalue their currency. How is the reserve status - whether we have it or not - going to change that calculus?
Me thinketh the., Big Fish are hungry and now it's.......a feeding frenzy!@!?😝🤪😜🤑
I agree with you. When the dollar is truly threatened, that will bring on war.
You’ll see a French Revolution on mega steroids
Thank you, Adam, for putting such heart and effort into your new channel. I could listen to John Rubino all day long. I feel like I'm getting wiser by just tuning in. Thanks for making such great content.
The number of people, ( of all ages ) working or not, who sleep overnight at my local park here outside Las Vegas increases weekly. In temperatures below freezing they cover themselves on the ground with heavy clothing. The other 50% are in cars or vans of different conditions. The US of A is a total mess at home and abroad. There has to be a reckoning, we cannot continue down this road. Our senators akin to Rome are twiddling their thumbs, counting ill gotten gains as our standard of life disintegrates.
The real inflection points happened in 1971 to 2008. History books will clearly show this. We are just not used to experience realty from bird perspective. Great words of John Rubino.
It says a lot about you Adam when you tell us that John is also your friend , I have always found John to be honest and trustworthy plus very knowledgeable on the economic condition of the working class
Always a pleasure to listen to Mr. Rubino.
You rarely hear about the fact that John mentions at 9:34 . The fact is, credit card companies make most of their profit from penalties and late fees.
Great interview Adam .
I don't think people realize how big /much a trillion $ is.
If you paid back $1 million every day of the year it would take $2,740 years to pay off $1 trillion dollars.
😂 Years do not need $ sign... It is better to use @
John says the harshest things with the nicest smile on his face. Scary!
Most people don't want to hear this.
Bring John back in the second quarter. Between the primaries and early phase of federal budget submissions, his insights would be welcomed...
John is a guru worth following if you don't yet. Thanks for the interview.
Adam, You and John back asap. Thank You.
Brilliant discussion. Unsettling, but fascinating. All that debt has to hit sometime.
America will be fine as long as the USD remains the reserve currency for the world. Americans have been getting a free ride for decades because of that.
People should be more concerned with what is about to happen when America becomes a dictatorship. All bets are off at that point, including any business interests.
It was all hit because the national system was built in debt, which made things expensive for its citizens.
@@DeboraGruba You are correct; now, the economy is terrible and not helping its citizens. Health services are so expensive, and debt is the only way you can get those services, but one can be debt-free with multiple sources of income.
The country among those with the highest gold reserve which strong back the currency but still it economy crashes because the government not interested in make the economy better for the citizen but all out there to secure their personal interest which is the war and political battle
That's true, most stocks like AI stocks are futures stocks and now the SEC is approving Bitcoin ETFs for large investors like Blackrock, Vanguard and some brokers with the ability to move and protect their money against crisis.
Thank you . A realistic and evidence based discussion. Excellent
Two wise and brave gentlemen telling it like it is. Glad to see your new channel thriving Adam.
This channel wiffed badly predicting 2023.
Yes. Good to listen to another conversation with John calm to understand what could be coming....
Adam, glad your new venture is growing so fast ... and I appreciate the diversity of the guests .... 4 plus decades in the business including the Fed's, but I'll spare everyone my predictions of where this is all going ... but I was hoping retirement would entail less worry ... my plan from here includes a complete rout of the foundations of all things economic
Spend money, go broke, but keep your job. Save money but lose your job. Corporate profits will be fine.. these executives and ceos making millions is the problem. The working class are always asked (and sometimes forced ) to take pay cuts when things are slow.. never the people on top.
I once worked as an engineer in Aerospace. When layoffs occurred, not one boss got released, just the worker bees.
I am a licensed insurance agent and former series 7 licensed person. I had a heart attack a year ago and chose to work UberEats full time this year. I can offer my anecdotal evidence - people are out of money. After the first of the year order volume has fallen off a cliff!
I'm not a sophisticated investor....i studied Great Depressions and Hyperinflations in and outnof school. On October 1st 2007 i moved all of my 401K into David Tice's PRUDENT BEAR FUND. In August 2008 I bought out of the money GANNETT 12.50 PUTS because i knew my home delivery manager job was going to be outsourced. The puts generated 427% profit by late November 2008. That was the scariest speculation. Now i am 61 and delivering Doordash ... living modestly, but most importantly in Surplus not Deficit.
I fear for my Family, Friends and Community. I wish more could learn sustainable living
Excellent interview with great information. Really appreciate all you do, Adam, and very much enjoyed "meeting" and learning from John. Please have him back!
Save us from the peace-makers.
They meant well enough in the 1930's
and we know how that ended.
90 years later, here we are again.
As a populist/libertarian leaning listener, I really liked a lot of Rubino's perspective.
That analogy with ships was great. Thank you for the work you do so we can learn this stuff.
John Rubino is so great. Thanks for having him on Adam. And of course, you're great too. Keep getting after it!
Adam, your well received because you are a thoughtful interview, intellegent and noncombative. Three great gifts. One of my fav's from your past was Michael B. from Miami. That walk and talk was as good as anything 60 minutes could have pulled together and one I will always remember. Thanks for your work big guy !!! Keep it up.
Wow, thank you!
This has been my favorite episode so far. If for no other reason than he seems very honest and also caring. Would love to see him return.
Also, I am one of the “millennials” who devours your content! We exist! 😂
Love your new channel. Your guests are awesome and discerning of our current times. Please have John and Stephanie back…they’re great guests. 😎
Honestly one of the better guest who spoke his hearts out .
😊
Thank you. Saw Mr. Rubino on another podcast, and then needed to find him on other channels that I respect. Of course you had him on 5 months ago.
Yes! Please have John back. 😊
Glad you're feeling better! Thanks for this amazing insight
Thank you both!! Wonderful discussion, thanks for having John back, I love his analysis !
Thanks guys!!
John is always a great listen!
Brilliant interview. Thank you!
Thanks guys! Great show
Not sure which is more disturbing, the message, or the way he smiles and chuckles while delivering it.
Excellent session. I fear this recession will result in mass civil unrest. This being the government constantly encouraging division through main stream propaganda instead of promoting social cohesion. Fear will rule. How does one preserve wealth and health in these times?
Its happening already. Just yesterday in was in Ecuador and Papua New Guinea. When everyone is rioting I guess it one step away from civil war. I think thats the plan.
@@JK-vu6hl i worked in PNG for years, rioting civil unrest is common place. But in America the trend is now for mob to steal in groups until moat walmarts have their products behind lock n key.
Lawyers, guns and real money.
Buy oil and guns
We already have civil unrest. It will get worse
Wow, "how do you allocate less?"
What an instructive way to connect populism with economics. That really puts into words things I've been thinking about. Thanks
Excellent... thank you both
Great job as usual John. I truly value your honesty
Great interview.
Please bring him back
Rubino is awesomely! I always love listening to his perspective.
Great interview with great information.
I got a lot out of this interview. Excellent!
This was so informative! I enjoyed hearing the different scenarios and the general brainstorming session. I certainly hope we do not see pitchforks in the street. Please have him back soon.
Good show Adam. Great insight
John Rubino ... Brilliant as usual 👏👏
Great Talk ---- Thoughtful ideas
I think we are going to see some macro issues play out in the over all economy due to a collapse in commercial real estate. Here in the suburbs of Detroit I've managed very large industrial buildings that have sat vacant for years. There's a brand new massive industrial manufacturing building close to me that has been converted to a storage unit. Building owners are now sectioning off bays to lease to very small business in order just to get someone in there.
I agree but Commercial Real Estate is only 1 of the 11 potential "black swan" events that I am tracking.
Great interview Adam! Thank you.
Another great interview. Thank you Adam for helping a small guy!
I like that John alluded to a conversation between Adam and himself that I don't recall from the presentation, so it must have taken place 'off air'. This is more of an econ/finance channel than preparedness so we don't hear takes like these often, but I'm glad to know that Adam is taking care of business and will be ready for what comes.
A conversation concerning prepping, specifically.
The global elite have depended upon the 2nd-tier class for their wealth accumulation over the past 70 years or so. What do they think is going to happen if they not only cut off the meager trickle down income stream, but also try to confiscate their assets? Pitchforks will be the least of their problems….
John excellant. will become a subscriber on his substack. as i am joining yours this month. thank you adam t.
Positioning matters. Flows can overcome macro a lot of the time. Up the wall of worry, and down the wall of hope.
I agree with you John.
Spot on. We have a global fiat currency problem. Own physical gold?
Great show, I appreciate the honesty
Adam, another great interview! One request; can you date stamp these interviews so we know when it was recorded?
Great interview 👍!
Can’t wait for the conference! ❤❤❤
Handing out money is a horrible idea.
I agree. When everyone was getting Stimis I was saying ... invest that... or save it... don't spend it. Nothing is free. Ever !!!
Excellent report 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
What's the current problems we are having are stemming from two things the government corruption and overspending and people not knowing how to live like minimalists in learning how to save and you only buy things that you have the cash for
Thanks for an excellent and honest assessment of the situations 👍👍👍
Great interview Adam!
Scary s***! Man I love Thoughtful Money. Thanks to Adam and all his great guests.
Thanks!
Thank you very much!!
I recently became aware through Lance that companies can influence the EPS metric through share buybacks. So be careful with this metric.
Maybe we are at the edge and should accept it and react accordingly? Eventually there’s no room to walk back.
“There’s always something to worry about.” -Peter Lynch
Love John Rubino! More John Rubino! 😃 Especially if and when he sees a clear shift in the market. 😉 //Jonas (SWEDEN)
I agree. I count no less than 11 potential black swan risks. I think we get not one but many at the same time. Folks going long here are insane IMO.
We're screwed.
I"m really glad John brought up The Great Taking. I'd really love to hear more about whether the legal changes indicated by David Rogers Webb concern any other money managers or financial advisors out there. An interview with David Rogers Webb himself would also be extremely interesting.
Yes I would like to hear that interview too
I've been challenging the royalty business model for years. It's working now. Franko Nevada worked like a charm. But in a SHTF scenario, with gold skyrocketing, miners are going to refuse to pay. They'll take it to court, but they won't pay. And royalty stocks will get crushed. I've tried to get E. B. Tucker to address this, but everyone ignores that possibility.
While there is some truth to the bail in issues in banks in the FDIC, there have been no changes that put your brokerage accounts at risk. The difference is that legally your bank deposits are liabilities of the bank that make you an unsecured creditor but a brokerage simply acts as an administrator for your assets and they have no ability to negotiate them.
It is frightening how many analysts forecast the fed bringing rates down to near zero along with QE restarting. It is hard to see how anything good can come out of this. We once had more rational leaders who would allow recessions to happen and clear the system of its excesses.
Stagering wisdom. Mr Rubino has no rosy glasses but give us golden investments. Congratulations ! Congratulations Mr Taggart for you new channel and good luck !
Thanks for another provocative and important discussion. As far as Adam’s question as to when the social upheaval gets started, look no further than Jan. 6th. And as far as the great taking, that has probably started as well. The government’s preferred wealth confiscation tool has been inflation… already at work in the bond market and probably coming soon to equities.
love the title already
Adam can ijust thank ypu and xr matifion and all the wounderfull prepoer and economics chanbels out there through you and there motivstion and information i am in the posstion to livewithout money if i need to which is a wounderfull postion to be in ty again
I've watched the great taking doc and some interviews with the author, now if I understand it correctly, the bail in of the banks would only be on any individual assets over $250k. This point isn't brought up when explaining how bail ins would work.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
❤oh So sweet Discussion ❤
What about the thesis that many people are running up credit card debt to get frequent flyer miles etc, but paying it off monthly and avoiding interest? Is this consistent with the $1trillion level of credit card debt?
The 1 trillion is not counting the people that pay it off. It’s carried credit card debt. Which is unfortunately now about 1/2 the population is carrying a balance.
John is spot on relating to so much. I believe, no matter who wins in 2024, we are probably headed to civil unrest of unprecedented scale. I also believe personally that it depends who the rank and file military sides with. Me personally? I have already volunteered to be a “senior brigade commander”! 😊
John Rubino is brilliant, and I love when he puts his thin foil hat on!
I've read that "Money is like blood. If it stops flowing, it clots". I'm wondering if assets behave the same way as money. So in reference to The Great Taking: If the powers that be, take all the assets, won't those assets rot (or clot)? i.e., The PTB will say, " There. We have it all, and the rest of you can't play with us." The PTB can't possibly utilize all those assets. So the majority of the assets will just sit and rot. Any comments about that?
So some negative criticism. Just another rinse and repeat macro analysis of the world is going to end. And the funny part is I agree with most of John's comments. But like John, who admits he has been wrong since the 2009 recession, I am finally learning that complaining about the world (and particulary the Fed) is not improving my investment performance. As a guy who has been around for six decades, there is always geopolitical issues going on (never lived in a world where peace dominates), government overspending, incompetent politicians in both parties, distrust in institutions (remember the 60s and Vietnam war as well as the 60s bull market), high energy prices, high inflation, recessions, layoffs, etc., etc.
I have gotten to where I fast forward these interviews (with the same cast of interviewees circulating from podcast to podcast with the same message), because the message never changes, is based on the collapse of the US markets, and they have all been generally wrong on the economy and the market.
John's comments may play out. Could take 10 years. 20 years. I could be dead when they play out. Challenge has been figuring out the intermediate market where clearly the federal reserve, liquidity, passive investing, social media, commission free trading, ST options, and computer trading are playing a much larger role in prices versus the macro world around it. Which takes me to looking for well run companies where hopefully I can pick them up on a short term down draft in price and just hold them. Timing all these black and grey swans is impossible and generally following most macro advice has been a losing game.
Thanks
Thank you very much!!
Totally agree with everything he said. Definitely feel the massive civil unrest is coming, not sure how, but I feel when the bottom falls out, unrest will be inevitable.
I enjoyed the short conversation regarding self-sufficiency at the end of the video. it's always amazed me how completely helpless many Americans have become. I was a businessman all my life. But always took pride in learning new things and was willing to tackle some fairly difficult projects. Over the years, I've saved tens of thousands of dollars doing my own carpentry, auto-repair, plumbing, electrical work, and more. I even built a couple of boats. Years ago, access to information was much more difficult. But today, with UA-cam and other websites, you can find individuals who spent time and effort to produce professional videos that walk you step-by-step through the process of making quite complex repairs and improvements to all kinds of things. Get off the couch, take advantage of the information that's available to you and save yourself a small fortune. Then invest it or do what you want with the money you saved.
I think its great that you discussed the Great Taking. Its not about when they take Securities and Pensions Etc... they already have effectively taken the rights to it. They will do it sneakily perhaps with introduction of CBDC.
You've totally got to get Peter Turchin on.
How can I get the great taking book?
Can you explain more on the SEC law that our cash in the financial institutions does not belong to us.