I haven't even bothered listening to anyone's take on this until Juan posted. I don't know if there's a more trustworthy source for anything than this channel right here. Thank you for all you do Juan!
Speaking as a Lear 35 pilot - this is a phenomenal early analysis. I completely agree with your points about the ground speed being too high to indicate a stall, recognition light being mistaken for fire, and the emphasis on the yaw damper as a potential culprit. I'd be surprised if there was anyone in the Lear community that didn't immediately think, 'I wonder if it was the yaw damper?' There's a ton of confusing information being spread around, but you can trust Juan 100% on this.
Counterpoint: Someone very smart has said many times, you can stall an aircraft at any airspeed, but only one angle of attack. (Yes, I know it was Brownie that said it.) Though from his analysis here, I would think that if it were some kind of stall it would be related to mechanical issues. Like the aforementioned yaw damper or flaps/etc.
@@davedarling4316 An absolutely fair point. Groundspeed alone doesn't tell you what the wing was doing. Groundspeed trend + rate of climb + ground track data gives you an excellent idea what the wing was doing.
Sure, rudder / yaw damper, thrust reversers, main cabin door opening (and going through left engine), faulty 115 VAC to Attitude Indicator (AI), faulty AI, or what is MOST likely… special disorientation. The problem is that it will be unlikely that they can prove anything with the small amount of clues left behind.
As always be advised that ADS-B Altitude Reports are NOT corrected for altimeter. The local altimeter at the time was 29.71 which means that all those altitude readings are NOT accurate at all. When you read 1600ft on tracking websites, you have to substract around 200-250 feet to get the correct indicated altitude with 29.71 inHg.
While the altitude numbers may be off by a little bit...at least we know it didnt stall, nor did the engines fail from bird strikes since they were both at full speed and the air plane was increasing in speed the entire flight (listen to the surveillance videos with audio, the engines are screaming).
That is interesting to note. Does that make any buildings or structures on the flight path a potential factor in the crash? Juan said they appeared late trying to turn onto their designated heading. So maybe they hit something that wouldn't normally be an issue.
Thanks Victor the combo of you and Juan gets us so close truth it's insane when I watch a regular newscast. Like hello, guys you can check the same channels, maybe even call you guys and talk to you.
If my memory serves correctly, the L55 has a history of cracking found in the flap tracks. Retracting the flaps happens about the same time as the left turn started, so I would not be surprised if they were dealing with an asymmetric flap condition.
How would an asymmetric flap condition cause an uncontrollable nose-down attitude? Not being snarky genuinely curious. Seems like in order to have this unusual attitude something would have to be going on in the region of the horizontal stabilizer, whether it be pilot induced or not
@@BlueHunllefI’m just a Cessna pilot, so don’t listen to me, but if one flap is out and the other in, it’s going to try to flip the airplane (to the left here), which then puts you into a left turn and dive, and hence down you go. I believe (other who know chime in) that many aircraft do not have control authority in ailerons to offset an imbalanced flap condition (at least for max flaps). I think I’ve seen a number of crashes related to such things. I think this is a design flaw of many aircraft wherein the loss of one aero surface should always be compensatable with other still available surfaces. Of course one might still need some time to invoke such emergency compensations and time was not on their side.
Heartbreaking. The pediatric patient had been receiving ‘life-saving treatment’ at Shriners children’s hospital since September, and was finally cleared to return home.
Thanks Juan.....appreciate your non speculative assessment. As a Check Airmen in the Lear, I agree with everything you stated. In particular the yaw damper possibility has been in my thoughts since I became aware of this tragedy. Thank you again sir. A voice of reason in these horrific occurrences.
@@TroyHoffman-7m2 As a Lear check airman you can help me out. Doesn't the Lear 55 have the dual tail strakes that allow dispatch with an inop yaw damper? I know that was an after market option of the Lear 35A and standard on the Lear 31.
@hawaiianetops9566 i dont know of any Ops Specs that allow flight with yaw damper inop. Im also not aware of a capability to ferry one with it inop. I understood the aft strakes were for low speed stability. I can assure you in cruise yaw damper failure was a violent and instantaneous loss of control. Dutch roll oscillations were rapid beyond 90deg roll along the longitudinal axis in each direction. You cannot touch the controls or you will intesify the dutch roll. Of note i remember the aircraft pitched nose down and something like 20° to the left as we slowed below 250kts. Cannot imagine at low altitude or in IMC. It is only a guess on my part and one of several scenarios that come to mind. Likely we may never know beyond: loss of control. (There isn't much left to investigate)
From a Lear 35 driver, I think a lot of people in the Lear community must've thought about that simulator scenario with the rudder hard-over on departure due to YD failure. At least that's what we were shown at FSI. Totally agree the yaw damper is among the first things that need to be looked at closely.
Well done Juan. Retired airline here. It's refreshing to hear an expert opinion. The news media and non pilot speculation can border on the ridiculous. Thanks for keeping it real. Tailwinds.
I'm not a pilot but enjoy learning from you guys and I hate hearing people talk about stuff they have no idea about. Soon as I saw it come out of the fog at that speed with throttle wide open I immediately assumed it was likely spacial disorientation. Even I, as just a casual in the aviation community, knew this didn't look like a stall.
Here's a question. If you fly for a living such as these pilots, or any other. Can spatial disoriention randomly get you one day? Or is it a combination of factors like fatigue with being in the soup, changing frequencies, and general management of the takeoff up to an assigned altitude? It's head scratching how it just gets pilots sometimes?!
@dhvoith That speculation goes for many jobs. Firefighting, home building, bartending, ect. People are clueless unless they have done it. Hell, a lot of people that have done it are clueless.
Hi Juan, just a note that if this aircract does operate into Mexico under Part 135, it is required to have a CVR and FDR. Many air ambulance operators switched from Lear 35A to Lear 55 because the Lear 55 had an FDR STC.
I’m an aircraft mechanic out of KPNE and this one hits to close to home.. prayers to all the families affected in this tragedy.. thank you Juan for another trust worthy report on this accident!
I saw a comment from a Lear 55 pilot on another forum suggesting that if the yaw damper failed and caused a rudder hard over it would lead to exactly this kind of trajectory, with left rudder then left wing drop and fierce acceleration due to the engines at takeoff power. The yaw damper is normally engaged very shortly after gear up. Once this type of yaw/roll begins I should think that there is very little time to identify the problem, turn off the yaw damper and then try to recover from the resulting unusual attitude. From peak altitude achieved to the crash took only 7 or 8 seconds according to the ADS-B data, probably beyond the structural limits of the aircraft even if the control authority was sufficient.
I also think this was spatial disorientation, unrecognized. Looks like the beginning of an incipient graveyard spiral. On the door camera footage, where the aircraft is coming towards the camera, it emerges in what looks like an 80-90 degree angle of bank, and just before impact it does appear to pitch further into the turn, like you'd see in a graveyard spiral. Can't rule out possible MX issues, but the fact they initiated a right turn and then went left is telling of something. Excellent video.
Their tktok brains couldn’t focus for this whole video. They would have given up 2 min in and gone to X to see all the conspiracy theory’s about missiles.
The expertise is for granted with you, Juan, but I really have to commend you for the respectful way you present the events. I notice the way you play back video, to only show the things you comment on. Most people use the full video to capture the audience with shock, but particularly with the Juju incident, I've come to appreciate and admire your approach. I saw that video before you showed it, and it affected me. Your take care to only showed the relevant part. I find that respectful of your audience, but above all, very respectful of the victims. Their tragedy is not something we should show off for the mere shock. Thank you.
I was looking for Juan's video on this before it came out, couldn't find it so tried a UA-camr I never watched before - Captain Steve. His opinion was that it was a stall or a single/double engine failure. To me this wasn't consistent with the video evidence at all. When this video by Juan came out I knew we would get a more informed analysis.
Thank you for pointing out that the light seen while the aircraft was in decent were the landing lights. I had a deep discussion with someone where I was letting them know that these were landing lights and not a fireball. Seems that there are many thinking the wrong thing. Apparently one of the news stations said it was like a fireball from the sky.
I don't think we can 100% say that it wasn't on fire on the way down but the sheer number of people saying it was on fire, and with such certainty, is concerning. Dunning-Kruger is all too real.
There’s a significant number of cases where witnesses claim to see an aircraft on fire, when that clearly wasn’t the case. Witness testimony isn’t always very reliable, especially from non-aviation sources.
Great work as always Juan. I noticed you were quoted in The Times (and The Australian) newspapers regarding the DCA crash. A testament to your considered and data-driven approach to reporting on these incidents and the work you do to raise public awareness of aviation safety.
Love your work. Very professional. Minor point. (Don’t flame me for this, not being a fussbudget. I do error analysis in a different profession and it was drilled into me that words matter.) The NTSB doesn’t blame. They attribute the event to probable cause. More professional and helpful to the public to use this terminology.
There was some research done by an ATC controller who became interested in spatial disorientation. I recall him stating that statistically, the most common spatial disorientation causal accidents occurred when the pilot was instructed to take a turn while in the soup *and* change frequencies. He has advocated that this practice be changed.
it's nuts that something like this can happen with a totally glass cockpit that shows you where the horizon is. I guess people just panic and trust their faulty inner ear more than the digital displays in front of them. Bad training?
@consortiumxf Even in a car, I had an episode where I looked down to grab my badge. Overcast day gentle downslope highway. Car was on smart cruise control. In just 1.5 seconds, as I brought my eyes/head back to the road I would've sworn the car veered sharply, The urge to correct this with my one hand that was on the wheel was overwhelming. I have so much greater appreciation for pilots/training and their inner ears after that.
Juan, I have been listening since Orville. your presentation is to factual and without guess or assumption. you present facts in whole and by doing so, your credibility is uncompromised. I know you get this all the time, but speaking for those like minded people, we love that you rule out the guesses and present the facts. while you were presenting air speed and accessnt/decent, it was clear that the plane was well above a stall level.
I was so tired of the pilots the mainstream media channels all have on, its like they don't know the basic facts of what happened when a lot of it is out there. They just make ridiculous unfounded conjecture. Your video on crashes like this are great, you cut right through all the BS and just show exactly what information we have.
They call this the Gell-Mann effect. Now when they have "experts" on from the ADL or some university and start talking about this "hate crime", that "conspiracy theory" or any of their other editorially curated "stories of interest" you'll know they're 100%...telling the hand-on-heart honest truth.
Saw VASAviation this morning. Been waiting for Juan and next will be Hoover with Pilot Debrief. Thanks for y’all’s commitment to aviation. I always learn something new and get food for thought on how I can be a better pilot.
I'm a very nervous flyer. I don't fly much but when I doI want either you or Sully as my Captain. Thanks so much for giving us insight how things really work in the skies.
The technical information Juan provides, speaks to his long experience as a pilot in many aircraft types, and his careful research. Juan is also a certified airframe and powerplant mechanic. He currently flies 777's for a major U.S. airline. Juan's commentary is the gold standard, but he is quick to support the work of colleagues in the field of aircraft incident analysis.
I was wondering how he knows all this. This is my second time visiting his channel after that Blackhawk ran into the passenger plane. This guy knows his stuff for sure. Now I know why.
I have watched a lot of videos on this. I grew up in this area. This channel is the first that has looked at and analyzed the data properly. Thank you.
Absolutely horrifying to be certain for all onboard; and I’m glad i waited for your reasoned analysis Juan. When I see 5 videos on UA-cam within a day, i know I’ll wait for your steady hand!
@@craig7350 I guess you don't consider ADSB data to be data? Airport diagrams? Radio transmissions? Timelines? Did we watch the same video? 3 videos I watched said they stalled. Juan just proved that was not the case. This is the first video I watched that introduced spatial awareness. A very plausible conclusion although the last thing that will be considered. With the cloud ceiling that low and the weather conditions as they were... I am not an investigator but I'm going with that for now.
@@edmclaughlin4923I drive thru these streets everyday. I am not buying spatial disorientation. I wanna know if any detectives or anyone in authority thought to get some boots on the ground at Northeast Airport and check any security footage, just for the hell of it. This is far from and open and shut case. Look at the crater in the street the two houses that were in flames in addition to the cars and who knows what else or who else got wiped out in this tragedy. My condolences to those affected by this tragedy. The least we can do for the victims of any crash is ask questions. I was never afraid to ask questions as a kid. Even if I got laughed at for asking a particular question. Those that ask few or no questions is how problems continue to come up and cause more issues. Mexico to Miami, Miami to Philly, Philly to Springfield, Springfield to Tijuana and then maybe a similar route next week or next month is what I guess these flights get scheduled for. That is a convenient match to a route certain types of individuals or groups use for not so medical means. Remember the show Colombo(spelling may be wrong)? We seem to lack that type of detective when an event happens and things are no so obvious. Best of luck in these unprecedented times. How about that little meteorite going thru a house and busting the floor that was on the news? My parents mentioned it a few days ago to me. No television for me. I collect old books. The meteorite mention is a way out there crazy possibility. But if we are tossing around ideas, why leave it off. That reset is fast approaching all of us... no idea from where or what that reset is but I hope people have not forgot about it.
During the mayors press conference earlier today. A spokesman from the fire department alluded to wreckage being found somewhere between the crash site and the runway. NTSB will hopefully give some info on that.
If that's part of the "four corners", did they lose something to alter the flight characteristics? If it's not, did they run into something? Suppose we'll find out in due time.
I have a garage right down the street from where this tragedy happened. There are parts everywhere. I was listening to the police scanner because of all the sirens I heard and 18,000 people were listening to what I heard...police needed more crime scene tape done to wreckage all over the place.
Thank you Juan I always appreciate your insight. I have not been able to sleep because of these two accidents. The sadness is so overwhelming. I know there is nothing I could do but the helplessness just strikes me of all these people wiped out in an instant. The poor girl and her Mom just survives and then its all over. Thank you all, hope you are doing better than I am. Regards, Juan
Thanks for shining some light on this. I saw one of those videos calling it a stall, which baffled me. The videos don’t look like a stall. I first thought catastrophic failure of some sort but we won’t really find out for some time. This is very sad. Thanks for keeping us informed.
before I say this let me state that I find your analysis of aviation incidents some of the best anywhere on the internet. That said please go back and find the longer format audio of the ATC to the airplane. There is a whole lot more to that conversation that was not and what was in this video
Juan after the 'Cherokee' finishes with Control, ATC call for a signal check with the Medvac, they do reply with. "Negative, we ju..... end of last transmission, less than 30 s later a "Whoa" can be heard by another craft, I think it was the 'Cherokee' waiting on hold for clearance, seconds later the next approaching flight radio to ATC, "What have you got going on down there." I believe the Jet was intact but had lit up inside overtaking pilot during that last snippet of their coms.
One network had an "expert" that said this was an onboard explosion caused by lack of maintenance. I just waited for Juan to come on to find out what likely really happened.
I've noticed over the course of these two latest incidents that everyone becomes an instant aviation expert and they know exactly what happened...even though the fires are still burning. This channel is so refreshing because it's just the facts coming from true professionals (you and Victor). Thank you for all you do and the way you do this in such a respectable manner!
Who is Hector pray tell? I have not heard of him, and I watch this channel a fair bit. Thanks. I have heard Juan Brown mention Victor at Vasaviation a lot, but no Hector.
It's awful how so many social media commentators rush to start fanning the fires of conspiracy theories, using incomplete or inaccurate information before we know anything - all to get page views to boost their page in the algorithm. Finally the adults have entered the chat.
Agreed I'm so disgusted with all these wannabe clowns who have no clue about aviation throwing around wild conspiracy, I believe some things are conspiracy but people just use no logic and spew rubbish, that's highly disrespectful to all involved
I think a lot of people immediately knew what happened in DC because of the ATC audio (UH-60 human error) The news on the other hand was all over the place trying to blame it on the tower staff (e.g. new york times) to various political mud slinging (e.g. "never let a tragedy go to waste" all sides). So EVERYBODY ELSE had to basically scream what happened to take the wind out of the media's sails for misinforming the public. For whatever gains they get out of all these spun stories they push.
I knew I should have waited for Juan, damnit. I saw another review of this accident and it was speculated as a stall and I bought it. I knew better too and its why Ive been listening to Juan and been a Patreon Member for as long as I have. Juan knows his stuff, gives it to us straight and I wont be checking elsewhere ever again. Cheers...
Terribly sad accident. My thoughts and prayers are with the families impacted and the city of Philadelphia. The preliminary look of it seems it could be like takeoff configuration error. Going from a climb of 3000 ft/minute to a fall of nearly 11000 ft/minute in the blink of an eye without any evidence of a stall is complete loss of control of your aircraft. Of course, it’s far too early to tell. Thanks Juan for a great analysis, as always.
I'm 6 miles S. of Opa Locka & have seen them regularly . Another sad day in the World of Aviation. Thank You for your report & may those involved rest in peace.
Q It looks like an explosion in the sky Straight fall vertical I believe it's sabotage. Why? Blackhawk helicopter crashes into a jet. Followed by this. While it's unfortunate 😕 that both events happened and in both events there's ZERO SURVIVORS...it is the international picture we need to focus on because more events are to be anticipated. I am deeply sorry for your loss and for your profession. War is never fair. We're at war. The targets often are those who have the experience to save lives. Warfare does exactly 💯 the opposite. They do not want your profession to save lives. So they target those of you who have to go through decades of training because its damn hard to replace. Think about the Olympics teams...the large part of those who perished were also in such a profession and expertise on the international arena 🤔 damn hard to replace and recover from. THIS IS DELIBERATELY DONE. Make sure, you and your colleagues avoid crowds and do shopping during off peak hours. Take care to have different paths and alternative stops on the way to work and from work back home. Do not be consistent in using a single route...too easy to follow by bad guys. 😢 Again, deeply sorry for your loss. ❤ Hugs 🫂 On a positive note: stay level headed. Stay awesome. Keep helping the hurting. Healing triumphs over everything else. Stay vigilant! Stay safe!!! Q
It always seems more painful when hearing of a medevac crash, knowing the crew were there solely to help someone in their hour of need & the patient only being in that situation due to some unfortunate life event. Very sad. Thanks for your professional reporting as ever Juan ❤
From the reporting on this channel, I have gotten the impression that the entire Med-Evac industry is kind of sketchy. I'm sure the employees do their best but the crews are pressured to do all sorts of unsafe things for business reasons.
These high-visibility rescues spend enormous amounts of money that could probably save 10x as many lives if the money was spent more responsibly. It is private money so they have the right to spend it as they please, but they certainly are not optimizing the saving of lives.
Juan, I've been following your channel since the Lake Oroville days. I live in Philly and never did I think you would be covering a crash that occurred so close to home! Great reporting as always!
From the net: The Philadelphia crash was the second fatal incident in 15 months for Jet Rescue. In 2023 five crewmembers were killed when their plane overran a runway in the central Mexican state of Morelos and crashed into a hillside.
Kinda amazing. We've gone from trusting faceless corporate brands to trusting an experienced and knowledgeable individual in the actual field. I'm very grateful for these folks and hope to keep finding more since mainstream media is such a garbage bin.
I listened to a video from a (Brand X) four striper and within a couple minutes I knew he was not going to give me useful information so was very pleased to see your post. This is another tragic result.
We all know who you're talking about. Likes to say eeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. He said he thought it was a stall caused by weight and balance. Didn't smell right at all.
I've been refreshing my feed all day waiting for Juan's video. I live just outside Philly over the river in NJ. Such a sad event. So close to home. Prayers for everyone who lost a loved one. 🙏🏻
Juan, you are the voice of reason in a cacophony of those more interested in getting there first rather than getting it right. As soon as I saw the videos, the low cloud ceiling and the adsb data, I thought of spatial disorientation as well... you're a great teacher. But you're right, a lot of other things need to be ruled out. The pilot on the radio did sound either fatigued or maybe distracted. Most of all RIP to the poor young girl and her mother... its just heartbreaking!
Mr. Juan Browne (blancol) Thank You for this report You are the absolute best with straightforward and clear explanation of very complex and technical details. You are the Man, A quote often credited to Albert Einstein "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." Other media should take classes from you.
I subscribed, because you're explanation was 10x more detailed and cogent than the 2nd best explanation. I'm not going to waste my time watching 4-5 videos from others from no on. I value my time. Thanks for honouring my intelligence. Aarre Peltomaa of Mississauga, Ontario
I just answered a comment on @vasaviation channel before your viseo atrived on my feed. My first thought was runaway trim or some other failure of the horizontal stab to cause such a violent descent rate from a low height. A stall situation would not have that descent profile. Nor was it a weight and balance issue. My other thought was spatial disorientation. Someone else suggested a flap or spoiler assymetry. Now having seen the ads-b data, i can see why spatial disorientation is maybe a more likely option. And yet, you'd expect the crew to be aware and anticipating it and have eyes on instruments. Such a tragic accident.
From start of decent to impact was less than 8 seconds. Things happen VERY fast at these speeds, with ZERO visual cues other than your instruments. GOD SPEED for all of them.
I told my husband that because it came down so fast, I wasn't sure if it was really a plane or not. I didn't even think about the spatial confusion scenario but as Juan was talking about it it does make sense. Like JFK Jr's plane...trying to fly in fog and in the dark just made for a tough situation. So very sad.
@@cessna177flyer3it wasn't a 1G stall, but as Juan has said in the past "Planes can stall at any airspeed and any attitude, but only OE critical angle of attack" If the plane was at 3-4G, it could have stalled. Unlikely, but possible.
Thanks Juan, also apologies for not previously being subbed - I watch so many of your videos that I genuinely thought I was subscribed. Check twice, cut once as my dad used to say. Appreciate the quick, accurate and non-judgmental approach to the incidents you cover. Clear skies and happy days!
I recently started a position as travel technician here about 8 months ago or so. I had boarded my first flight headed to Texas and was scared as all hell by airplanes and how they work. after my first couple flights I personally found it fascinating and amazing. I also fell into the rabbit hole of air planes and aviation in general. I have seen a alot of comments on the recent accidents that we have had and it caused me to do further research into such things. Everything is so interesting. The way Atc works the way pilots have to makes split second decisions is quite intriguing. 74 gear did a recent video i believe it was him
The other contributing factor that comes to mind is the pitch trim. There could have been a pitch trim runaway to the nose down position but the other possibility is that the nose up trim was not reset after the landing. This resulted in the rapid rate of climb after takeoff and over application of nose down trim to correct. This combined with spatial disorientation was a contributing factor in the crashes of FlyDubai 981 and Atlas Air 3591. Something must have distracted the flight crew though because they made almost no attempt to turn to their assigned heading. IDK if that favours the pitch trim runaway or not.
Seems like electric assist pitch trim would be such a single point of failure - especially if it trims very rapidly, more than a human would input. Tragic whatever the cause. RIP.
The early 55s had a Stick Pusher system in them. Did this aircraft have it or was it too new of a model? This certainly could have been an issue if it was commanding a nose down input. Runaway Nose Down Trim and like you mentioned Spatial issues due to acceleration is possible.
There is a pic of a medical oxygen bottle with the valve broken off that was found some distance ( like 1/4 mile ) away from the crash. Next to the bottle is an electric motor or generator. Some in comment sections " claim " that the bottle tipped over and broke the valve off. The bottle is light aluminum, valve thick brass and in a soft surface environment so this not likely. Valves can break off however this is limited to large steel cylinders in a hard surface environment.
As usual, a great, no nonsense, factual, pilot's view of what happened. Thank you Juan. RIP to all the souls on board, and those killed or injured on the ground. Tragic accident.
This is purposely the first explaination video I’ve watched on this crash. As expected, Juan delivers a great analysis of available evidence. My first thought on it was special disorientation due to similarities with past crashes. I also wondered if icing was involved, but it sounds like the conditions weren’t there. Condolences to families of those lost.
worked 3rd shift for 5 years at a Fl FBO and handled a lot of med flights, usually older Lears and Citations. lots of transporting organ harvest teams. quite a few Canadian operators. long story short, if making an international trip buy travel insurance. saw a lady spend 15K to fly from tampa to somewhere in texas one way. daughter was in texas and injured.
Ty Juan. You/your Blancolirio channel and Pilot Debrief remain my *only* trustworthy sources for about 5 years now. Disclaimer --I was an Aerospace Engineer, glider pilot, armchair crash investigator. Over my aviation lifetime, "aged aircraft /under maintenance" is a culprit in a great deal of crashes. 44 year old Lear jet my God that shoulda been scrapped awhile back is my .02
I’m so thankful for your work in bringing this information to those of us who are interested in aviation. You always cut to the facts with extraneous commentary. Every time there is an aviation incident, I’m always looking forward to hearing your take on the situation.
I'm a long time corporate pilot (retired now) and have flown numerous models of the LearJet. I was amazed to hear Juan say Lear 55. That model must be 40 + years old by now......and amazed they're even still airworthy. Just my 2C worth barely 😊😊😊'
@@BlestinTexas24He did! I heard that in 1 other report I watch & waiting hear from him to make sure it was true! May God have mercy on families involved with this crash! 🙏
My feeling is that something might have broke off and since the engines were still at take-off power, that’s why it came down so fast. Like the engines were actually adding to the gravity
This channel is the gold standard. The attention to the data and lack of speculation is appreciated by myself. Thank you. One observation that I had is one of the doorbell cameras showed another smaller streak of light ahead of the aircraft.
Excellent as always. I worked heavy MX on Leers years ago including the 55. The data so far only raises more questions. This will be interesting if they ever find out exactly what happened.
Thanks for your insights, Juan. I saw another video (by a commercial captain whom I won't name) who declared that he was certain it was caused by a stall. That didn't make sense to me, but I'm not a pilot.
I watched a video by another aviation expert on the DCA collision and disagreed with what he said just based on what I have learned from Juan. The other guy wanted to blame ATC, yet the transcript from ATC did not indicate them doing anything unusual. Having watched many VASaviation videos, I have learned how to recognize normal ATC transmissions and distinguish unusual situations. With that channel and blancolirio, I get all the (accurate) info I need on most incidents.
Thank you for your analysis, I was thinking spatial disorientation as well. It’ll be tough for the investigators. I flew Medevac for few years after I retired from the airlines. Hardest flying I ever did. My thoughts and prayers go out to the crew and passengers. Very sad
The last data point is 247 kt ground speed (284 mph); the clip I've seen showing the angle of descent is steep...if it was a 45 degree angle the actual airspeed when it hit the ground would be approximately 483 mph. MASSIVE impact.
Brilliant coverage as always...and unfortunately so soon behind the collision in DC just a few nights ago, and how terribly tragic (all crashes involving a loss of life are), but more so given the nature of the flight. I look forward to further updates of this as well as the DC crash from one of very few trusted sources of aviation news (well any news you cover) over the coming days and weeks. The initial footage on Maximus Aviation was chilling, and certainly raised the hairs at knowing that lives had just been cut tragically short 😔😔😔😔 Thanks again Juan, and a saddened cheers from Sydney Aus!!!! 🍻🍻🍻🍻
Thanks for your thoughts Juan - Grim reminder that while aviation is still the safest mode of transport, there is particular work to be done in the medevac/air-ambulance/helicopter rescue domain. That sector of the aviation world continues to suffer accidents and fatalities far outside what is seen in other modes. Granted a part of that is the need to be ready to fly in all-weather conditions, but still too many flight nurses, paramedics, and pilots are dying performing this service. Really hoping the FAA is spending extra effort looking at technologies and regulations to improve this situation.
@aarner42 This wasn't a medevac flight. There was no patient emergency. The child had been in Shriners' Childrens' Hospital in Philadelphia for four months. The child and mother were returning home after the end of treatments. If weather had been a concern, the flight probably could have been delayed or postponed.
It is great to see some just reporting the facts of the accident. I also heard of concerns of fuel contamination. Hard to believe that with the speed and rate of decent just before the accident. The aircraft clearly appears to still be at full power.
Only other plausable is an engine failure and inputing in the wrong rudder input. But agree with his take, definitely not the stall others were rushing to say
@@awhite3713 I don't know what makes you think engines at all. Given the rate of climb - I feel confident that engine failure is unlikely. Even if an engine fails catastrophically - the plane isn't going to just nose-over. Far more likely is a stab issue or weight and balance miscalculation. The Learjet is about as unforgiving an aircraft as there is if you don't get it loaded correctly.
@ELITE-xn3sh not really if the other engine is max. I am not saying that is what happened, but when I upgraded to CA in a regional jet, my FO did exactly what I was talking about at about the same altitude in the sim. the quick roll rate and acceleration in the dive make me certain it is plausible. but again I am saying the other options are as well.
@@Joseph55220 While you are the expert on that, and I'm just an observer, my thoughts ruled out an overweight situation due to there being only 6 people on board. I don't think medical equipment weighs that much more, and I'm sure the pilots had accounted for that in their calculations. I also ruled out engine failure based only on the videos. Juan's analysis backs that up. But an issue with the plane's configuration cannot be ruled out at this time. His mention of the yaw damper makes sense. The weather could have been a factor, but not due to icing conditions, because the temperature was warm enough for rain. I'm glad he raised the issue of spatial disorientation, because I had not thought of that. My thoughts leaned toward there being something wrong with the plane, but Juan notes that a couple of other similar accidents are considered to have been caused by spatial disorientation instead. Thanks for your comment!
I haven't even bothered listening to anyone's take on this until Juan posted. I don't know if there's a more trustworthy source for anything than this channel right here. Thank you for all you do Juan!
Just the facts with professional interpretation.
Same
There are. There are several. Dan Gryder isn’t one of them.
Nah @@mike73ng
Yes, and I like the way he makes it to where the "novice" like me, can understand what happened. The channel VAS is very good too.
Speaking as a Lear 35 pilot - this is a phenomenal early analysis. I completely agree with your points about the ground speed being too high to indicate a stall, recognition light being mistaken for fire, and the emphasis on the yaw damper as a potential culprit. I'd be surprised if there was anyone in the Lear community that didn't immediately think, 'I wonder if it was the yaw damper?' There's a ton of confusing information being spread around, but you can trust Juan 100% on this.
Counterpoint: Someone very smart has said many times, you can stall an aircraft at any airspeed, but only one angle of attack.
(Yes, I know it was Brownie that said it.)
Though from his analysis here, I would think that if it were some kind of stall it would be related to mechanical issues. Like the aforementioned yaw damper or flaps/etc.
Left thrust reverser deployment?
@@davedarling4316 An absolutely fair point. Groundspeed alone doesn't tell you what the wing was doing. Groundspeed trend + rate of climb + ground track data gives you an excellent idea what the wing was doing.
Sure, rudder / yaw damper, thrust reversers, main cabin door opening (and going through left engine), faulty 115 VAC to Attitude Indicator (AI), faulty AI, or what is MOST likely… special disorientation. The problem is that it will be unlikely that they can prove anything with the small amount of clues left behind.
Could there have been an ADI failure leading to spatial disorientation?
As always be advised that ADS-B Altitude Reports are NOT corrected for altimeter. The local altimeter at the time was 29.71 which means that all those altitude readings are NOT accurate at all. When you read 1600ft on tracking websites, you have to substract around 200-250 feet to get the correct indicated altitude with 29.71 inHg.
Thanks as always Victor
While the altitude numbers may be off by a little bit...at least we know it didnt stall, nor did the engines fail from bird strikes since they were both at full speed and the air plane was increasing in speed the entire flight (listen to the surveillance videos with audio, the engines are screaming).
Do they assume 29.92?
That is interesting to note. Does that make any buildings or structures on the flight path a potential factor in the crash?
Juan said they appeared late trying to turn onto their designated heading. So maybe they hit something that wouldn't normally be an issue.
Thanks Victor the combo of you and Juan gets us so close truth it's insane when I watch a regular newscast. Like hello, guys you can check the same channels, maybe even call you guys and talk to you.
I’m glad you pointed out basically what I’ve been saying myself - that thing didn’t Fall to the ground it FLEW into the ground
I️ agree. Not sure how someone would think it fell, if you watched some of the videos.
Still looking for an answer here, question from a layman: why didn't all these spatial disorientation guys look at their artificial horizon?
@@Styk33 your just splitting stupid hairs ... if a car losses control on a corner and crashes into a wall ... does it drive into the wall ? or crash ?
@ yeah like when a stall occurs you Fall. This was more like CFIT.And that definitely fits with Spatial Disorientation as Juan pointed out.
@@colinobrien3806I agree.
If my memory serves correctly, the L55 has a history of cracking found in the flap tracks. Retracting the flaps happens about the same time as the left turn started, so I would not be surprised if they were dealing with an asymmetric flap condition.
Quite Plausible...
How would an asymmetric flap condition cause an uncontrollable nose-down attitude? Not being snarky genuinely curious. Seems like in order to have this unusual attitude something would have to be going on in the region of the horizontal stabilizer, whether it be pilot induced or not
Judging by the crater left by the aircraft, I doubt we will ever know if this was a mechanical failure due to lack of wreckage sadly.
@@BlueHunllef Rolled inverted?
@@BlueHunllefI’m just a Cessna pilot, so don’t listen to me, but if one flap is out and the other in, it’s going to try to flip the airplane (to the left here), which then puts you into a left turn and dive, and hence down you go. I believe (other who know chime in) that many aircraft do not have control authority in ailerons to offset an imbalanced flap condition (at least for max flaps). I think I’ve seen a number of crashes related to such things. I think this is a design flaw of many aircraft wherein the loss of one aero surface should always be compensatable with other still available surfaces. Of course one might still need some time to invoke such emergency compensations and time was not on their side.
Heartbreaking. The pediatric patient had been receiving ‘life-saving treatment’ at Shriners children’s hospital since September, and was finally cleared to return home.
That makes this even more sad.
So sad 😢
Thats so depressing. Hope all the families are getting the support they need.
I haven't been okay since hearing about this
Brutal. We’re all so lucky to be alive and kickin’.
Thanks Juan.....appreciate your non speculative assessment. As a Check Airmen in the Lear, I agree with everything you stated. In particular the yaw damper possibility has been in my thoughts since I became aware of this tragedy. Thank you again sir. A voice of reason in these horrific occurrences.
@@TroyHoffman-7m2 As a Lear check airman you can help me out. Doesn't the Lear 55 have the dual tail strakes that allow dispatch with an inop yaw damper? I know that was an after market option of the Lear 35A and standard on the Lear 31.
@hawaiianetops9566 i dont know of any Ops Specs that allow flight with yaw damper inop. Im also not aware of a capability to ferry one with it inop. I understood the aft strakes were for low speed stability. I can assure you in cruise yaw damper failure was a violent and instantaneous loss of control. Dutch roll oscillations were rapid beyond 90deg roll along the longitudinal axis in each direction. You cannot touch the controls or you will intesify the dutch roll. Of note i remember the aircraft pitched nose down and something like 20° to the left as we slowed below 250kts. Cannot imagine at low altitude or in IMC. It is only a guess on my part and one of several scenarios that come to mind. Likely we may never know beyond: loss of control. (There isn't much left to investigate)
From a Lear 35 driver, I think a lot of people in the Lear community must've thought about that simulator scenario with the rudder hard-over on departure due to YD failure. At least that's what we were shown at FSI. Totally agree the yaw damper is among the first things that need to be looked at closely.
@@TroyHoffman-7m2 no way to ferry part 135 with revenue passengers
Jet rescue is part 135 there should be requirements for CVR
Well done Juan. Retired airline here. It's refreshing to hear an expert opinion. The news media and non pilot speculation can border on the ridiculous. Thanks for keeping it real. Tailwinds.
I'm not a pilot but enjoy learning from you guys and I hate hearing people talk about stuff they have no idea about.
Soon as I saw it come out of the fog at that speed with throttle wide open I immediately assumed it was likely spacial disorientation. Even I, as just a casual in the aviation community, knew this didn't look like a stall.
Want to emphasize what you said, "non pilot speculation can border on the ridiculous".
Here's a question. If you fly for a living such as these pilots, or any other. Can spatial disoriention randomly get you one day? Or is it a combination of factors like fatigue with being in the soup, changing frequencies, and general management of the takeoff up to an assigned altitude? It's head scratching how it just gets pilots sometimes?!
@dhvoith That speculation goes for many jobs. Firefighting, home building, bartending, ect. People are clueless unless they have done it. Hell, a lot of people that have done it are clueless.
@@Matthew-hi5ud Excellent question.
Hi Juan, just a note that if this aircract does operate into Mexico under Part 135, it is required to have a CVR and FDR. Many air ambulance operators switched from Lear 35A to Lear 55 because the Lear 55 had an FDR STC.
NTSB during the last briefing mentioned they were still looking for the CVR.
Sure looks like around 8:25 that there's a streak of smoke in the path of the plummeting aircraft
@@particularlybad Those are called clouds.
@@cornerpage6634they recovered both on Thursday and the recorder from the Blackhawk. Ntsb briefing 3
@@particularlybaddon't hijack threads, dude.
I’m an aircraft mechanic out of KPNE and this one hits to close to home.. prayers to all the families affected in this tragedy.. thank you Juan for another trust worthy report on this accident!
I saw a comment from a Lear 55 pilot on another forum suggesting that if the yaw damper failed and caused a rudder hard over it would lead to exactly this kind of trajectory, with left rudder then left wing drop and fierce acceleration due to the engines at takeoff power. The yaw damper is normally engaged very shortly after gear up.
Once this type of yaw/roll begins I should think that there is very little time to identify the problem, turn off the yaw damper and then try to recover from the resulting unusual attitude. From peak altitude achieved to the crash took only 7 or 8 seconds according to the ADS-B data, probably beyond the structural limits of the aircraft even if the control authority was sufficient.
I’m also thinking rudder problem. And since the engines were still at take off thrust, they aided the fast descent
similar to the two Boeing 737 crashes in the 1990s even though those events were on landing approaches
I saw the same "another forum". A downright frightful flaw.
If landing lights were on then the gear was still down.
That would explain why their right turn to their assigned heading reversed into a left turn while still climbing.
I also think this was spatial disorientation, unrecognized. Looks like the beginning of an incipient graveyard spiral. On the door camera footage, where the aircraft is coming towards the camera, it emerges in what looks like an 80-90 degree angle of bank, and just before impact it does appear to pitch further into the turn, like you'd see in a graveyard spiral. Can't rule out possible MX issues, but the fact they initiated a right turn and then went left is telling of something. Excellent video.
People at work ask me about these accidents like I know something… I just watch this channel and repeat everything Juan says.
Their tktok brains couldn’t focus for this whole video. They would have given up 2 min in and gone to X to see all the conspiracy theory’s about missiles.
The expertise is for granted with you, Juan, but I really have to commend you for the respectful way you present the events. I notice the way you play back video, to only show the things you comment on. Most people use the full video to capture the audience with shock, but particularly with the Juju incident, I've come to appreciate and admire your approach. I saw that video before you showed it, and it affected me. Your take care to only showed the relevant part. I find that respectful of your audience, but above all, very respectful of the victims. Their tragedy is not something we should show off for the mere shock. Thank you.
This channel is my only source of information on these matters. Highly credible.
One of the, if not the best YT channel on these types of tragedies.
Same!
Been waiting for your take!
Just the facts Ma'am.
Me too!
Dude me too. This one just went in like a missile. Really needed Juans take to make sense of it.
Me too, been on UA-cam all day, killing time until Juan could check in.
I was looking for Juan's video on this before it came out, couldn't find it so tried a UA-camr I never watched before - Captain Steve. His opinion was that it was a stall or a single/double engine failure. To me this wasn't consistent with the video evidence at all. When this video by Juan came out I knew we would get a more informed analysis.
Thank you for pointing out that the light seen while the aircraft was in decent were the landing lights. I had a deep discussion with someone where I was letting them know that these were landing lights and not a fireball.
Seems that there are many thinking the wrong thing. Apparently one of the news stations said it was like a fireball from the sky.
There was a small flash in the air before the aircraft starts pointing down
Wasn’t the gear up?
I did see one man being interviewed by a news station who said he saw a fireball coming out of the clouds. Perhaps he was mistaken.
I don't think we can 100% say that it wasn't on fire on the way down but the sheer number of people saying it was on fire, and with such certainty, is concerning. Dunning-Kruger is all too real.
There’s a significant number of cases where witnesses claim to see an aircraft on fire, when that clearly wasn’t the case. Witness testimony isn’t always very reliable, especially from non-aviation sources.
Being a pilot and an EMT whose aunt and uncle lived in northeast Philly, it hits home. Very sad.
Great work as always Juan. I noticed you were quoted in The Times (and The Australian) newspapers regarding the DCA crash. A testament to your considered and data-driven approach to reporting on these incidents and the work you do to raise public awareness of aviation safety.
Love your work. Very professional.
Minor point. (Don’t flame me for this, not being a fussbudget. I do error analysis in a different profession and it was drilled into me that words matter.)
The NTSB doesn’t blame.
They attribute the event to probable cause.
More professional and helpful to the public to use this terminology.
Makes sense. Lawyers blame.
Thanks, Juan -- We sure appreciate your services.
There was some research done by an ATC controller who became interested in spatial disorientation. I recall him stating that statistically, the most common spatial disorientation causal accidents occurred when the pilot was instructed to take a turn while in the soup *and* change frequencies. He has advocated that this practice be changed.
All Learjets are 2 pilot planes (I fly several models). The co-pilot would be running the radio.
In the weather, I would have the autopilot on.
Definitely makes sense.
it's nuts that something like this can happen with a totally glass cockpit that shows you where the horizon is. I guess people just panic and trust their faulty inner ear more than the digital displays in front of them. Bad training?
@consortiumxf Even in a car, I had an episode where I looked down to grab my badge. Overcast day gentle downslope highway. Car was on smart cruise control. In just 1.5 seconds, as I brought my eyes/head back to the road I would've sworn the car veered sharply, The urge to correct this with my one hand that was on the wheel was overwhelming.
I have so much greater appreciation for pilots/training and their inner ears after that.
to a non aviation expert, what is the soup? and why can this be so disorienting to pilots?
Juan, your reporting and explanation of covering these accidents/indents is legendary!
Juan, I have been listening since Orville. your presentation is to factual and without guess or assumption. you present facts in whole and by doing so, your credibility is uncompromised. I know you get this all the time, but speaking for those like minded people, we love that you rule out the guesses and present the facts.
while you were presenting air speed and accessnt/decent, it was clear that the plane was well above a stall level.
It is always nice to hear a true expert lay out the events of an accident and not mess everything up with rumours. Thanks
Thanks Juan for the sanity check report. Again. Condolences to all the victims of both crashes.
I was so tired of the pilots the mainstream media channels all have on, its like they don't know the basic facts of what happened when a lot of it is out there. They just make ridiculous unfounded conjecture. Your video on crashes like this are great, you cut right through all the BS and just show exactly what information we have.
makes you worried about one of those "expert" pilots flying a plane you're strapped into
They call this the Gell-Mann effect. Now when they have "experts" on from the ADL or some university and start talking about this "hate crime", that "conspiracy theory" or any of their other editorially curated "stories of interest" you'll know they're 100%...telling the hand-on-heart honest truth.
Saw VASAviation this morning. Been waiting for Juan and next will be Hoover with Pilot Debrief. Thanks for y’all’s commitment to aviation. I always learn something new and get food for thought on how I can be a better pilot.
It's exclusively Juan and Hoover for me as well.
Check out flying for money!
The holy trinity.
Juan is the best crash analyst on UA-cam.
My order of information as well.
Thanks for your opinions on a possible cause, I agree a plane descending vertical at that speed wasn't stalling, rather disorientaed, maybe fatigue
I'm a very nervous flyer. I don't fly much but when I doI want either you or Sully as my Captain. Thanks so much for giving us insight how things really work in the skies.
The technical information Juan provides, speaks to his long experience as a pilot in many aircraft types, and his careful research. Juan is also a certified airframe and powerplant
mechanic. He currently flies 777's for a major U.S. airline. Juan's commentary is the gold
standard, but he is quick to support the work of colleagues in the field of aircraft incident analysis.
I think Juan was a F5 tiger pilot long time ago... on T38 trainer model of F5.. sory for my english
None better
write me a poem
I was wondering how he knows all this. This is my second time visiting his channel after that Blackhawk ran into the passenger plane. This guy knows his stuff for sure. Now I know why.
Thanks chatgpt bot
Thanks Juan. Been waiting all day for the Juan Brown report. Saw the AtC on Vasaviation this morning.
same
Thank so very much Juan for all the great reporting you do. It must be really hard analyzing all these disasters.
I've been checking in all day for your take. Watched VASA (excellent,) and then some guy with 4 stripes who seemed way off. You're the best
I have watched a lot of videos on this. I grew up in this area. This channel is the first that has looked at and analyzed the data properly. Thank you.
Absolutely horrifying to be certain for all onboard; and I’m glad i waited for your reasoned analysis Juan. When I see 5 videos on UA-cam within a day, i know I’ll wait for your steady hand!
what data?
@@craig7350 I guess you don't consider ADSB data to be data? Airport diagrams? Radio transmissions? Timelines? Did we watch the same video? 3 videos I watched said they stalled. Juan just proved that was not the case. This is the first video I watched that introduced spatial awareness. A very plausible conclusion although the last thing that will be considered. With the cloud ceiling that low and the weather conditions as they were... I am not an investigator but I'm going with that for now.
@@edmclaughlin4923I drive thru these streets everyday. I am not buying spatial disorientation. I wanna know if any detectives or anyone in authority thought to get some boots on the ground at Northeast Airport and check any security footage, just for the hell of it.
This is far from and open and shut case. Look at the crater in the street the two houses that were in flames in addition to the cars and who knows what else or who else got wiped out in this tragedy.
My condolences to those affected by this tragedy. The least we can do for the victims of any crash is ask questions. I was never afraid to ask questions as a kid. Even if I got laughed at for asking a particular question. Those that ask few or no questions is how problems continue to come up and cause more issues. Mexico to Miami, Miami to Philly, Philly to Springfield, Springfield to Tijuana and then maybe a similar route next week or next month is what I guess these flights get scheduled for.
That is a convenient match to a route certain types of individuals or groups use for not so medical means.
Remember the show Colombo(spelling may be wrong)? We seem to lack that type of detective when an event happens and things are no so obvious.
Best of luck in these unprecedented times. How about that little meteorite going thru a house and busting the floor that was on the news? My parents mentioned it a few days ago to me. No television for me. I collect old books. The meteorite mention is a way out there crazy possibility. But if we are tossing around ideas, why leave it off. That reset is fast approaching all of us... no idea from where or what that reset is but I hope people have not forgot about it.
During the mayors press conference earlier today. A spokesman from the fire department alluded to wreckage being found somewhere between the crash site and the runway. NTSB will hopefully give some info on that.
If that's part of the "four corners", did they lose something to alter the flight characteristics? If it's not, did they run into something? Suppose we'll find out in due time.
I have a garage right down the street from where this tragedy happened. There are parts everywhere. I was listening to the police scanner because of all the sirens I heard and 18,000 people were listening to what I heard...police needed more crime scene tape done to wreckage all over the place.
Thank you Juan I always appreciate your insight. I have not been able to sleep because of these two accidents. The sadness is so overwhelming. I know there is nothing I could do but the helplessness just strikes me of all these people wiped out in an instant. The poor girl and her Mom just survives and then its all over. Thank you all, hope you are doing better than I am. Regards, Juan
Thanks for shining some light on this. I saw one of those videos calling it a stall, which baffled me. The videos don’t look like a stall. I first thought catastrophic failure of some sort but we won’t really find out for some time. This is very sad. Thanks for keeping us informed.
It was definitely a catastrophic loss of control, but yeah it did not look like a stall.
yeah, straight down crash... until you hear it was a jet on take-off.
Too sad.
before I say this let me state that I find your analysis of aviation incidents some of the best anywhere on the internet. That said please go back and find the longer format audio of the ATC to the airplane. There is a whole lot more to that conversation that was not and what was in this video
Juan after the 'Cherokee' finishes with Control, ATC call for a signal check with the Medvac, they do reply with. "Negative, we ju..... end of last transmission, less than 30 s later a "Whoa" can be heard by another craft, I think it was the 'Cherokee' waiting on hold for clearance, seconds later the next approaching flight radio to ATC, "What have you got going on down there."
I believe the Jet was intact but had lit up inside overtaking pilot during that last snippet of their coms.
One network had an "expert" that said this was an onboard explosion caused by lack of maintenance. I just waited for Juan to come on to find out what likely really happened.
Yeah, I saw that and thought to myself... what a wild ass guess. Pure speculation. Nothing like that shows in any of the videos of the crash.
Fox, right? ;-)
That sounds like something the convicted felon president would say, much like 2 days ago with his "common sense'!
@@randallmarsh1187And his "Infinite wisdom"...
I would delete that channel from my TV.
I’ve been refreshing all day in anticipation of this! Really love your take on things
I've noticed over the course of these two latest incidents that everyone becomes an instant aviation expert and they know exactly what happened...even though the fires are still burning. This channel is so refreshing because it's just the facts coming from true professionals (you and Victor). Thank you for all you do and the way you do this in such a respectable manner!
Who is Hector pray tell? I have not heard of him, and I watch this channel a fair bit. Thanks.
I have heard Juan Brown mention Victor at Vasaviation a lot, but no Hector.
It's awful how so many social media commentators rush to start fanning the fires of conspiracy theories, using incomplete or inaccurate information before we know anything - all to get page views to boost their page in the algorithm. Finally the adults have entered the chat.
Agreed I'm so disgusted with all these wannabe clowns who have no clue about aviation throwing around wild conspiracy, I believe some things are conspiracy but people just use no logic and spew rubbish, that's highly disrespectful to all involved
I think a lot of people immediately knew what happened in DC because of the ATC audio (UH-60 human error) The news on the other hand was all over the place trying to blame it on the tower staff (e.g. new york times) to various political mud slinging (e.g. "never let a tragedy go to waste" all sides). So EVERYBODY ELSE had to basically scream what happened to take the wind out of the media's sails for misinforming the public. For whatever gains they get out of all these spun stories they push.
Especially our illustrious president.
Juan, you have been working overtime here the last few days, thank you again for the good content!
I knew I should have waited for Juan, damnit. I saw another review of this accident and it was speculated as a stall and I bought it. I knew better too and its why Ive been listening to Juan and been a Patreon Member for as long as I have. Juan knows his stuff, gives it to us straight and I wont be checking elsewhere ever again. Cheers...
Terribly sad accident. My thoughts and prayers are with the families impacted and the city of Philadelphia. The preliminary look of it seems it could be like takeoff configuration error. Going from a climb of 3000 ft/minute to a fall of nearly 11000 ft/minute in the blink of an eye without any evidence of a stall is complete loss of control of your aircraft. Of course, it’s far too early to tell. Thanks Juan for a great analysis, as always.
Thank You for this report. Yes, there are many questions that still need to be answered.
I'm 6 miles S. of Opa Locka & have seen them regularly . Another sad day in the World of Aviation. Thank You for your report & may those involved rest in peace.
This one was personal. This one hurt. My profession took a huge hit
Q
It looks like an explosion in the sky
Straight fall vertical
I believe it's sabotage. Why?
Blackhawk helicopter crashes into a jet.
Followed by this.
While it's unfortunate 😕 that both events happened and in both events there's ZERO SURVIVORS...it is the international picture we need to focus on because more events are to be anticipated.
I am deeply sorry for your loss and for your profession.
War is never fair.
We're at war.
The targets often are those who have the experience to save lives. Warfare does exactly 💯 the opposite. They do not want your profession to save lives.
So they target those of you who have to go through decades of training because its damn hard to replace. Think about the Olympics teams...the large part of those who perished were also in such a profession and expertise on the international arena 🤔 damn hard to replace and recover from.
THIS IS DELIBERATELY DONE.
Make sure, you and your colleagues avoid crowds and do shopping during off peak hours. Take care to have different paths and alternative stops on the way to work and from work back home. Do not be consistent in using a single route...too easy to follow by bad guys.
😢
Again, deeply sorry for your loss.
❤
Hugs 🫂
On a positive note: stay level headed. Stay awesome. Keep helping the hurting. Healing triumphs over everything else.
Stay vigilant!
Stay safe!!!
Q
Juan. Thank you. Always watching your insight. 😊.
If this keeps up, Juan will need to make this a full time occupation.
Thanks Juan. It's been one busy week for the NTSB.
And sadly the NTSB is being jerked around first being told to take the deferred registration only to be told they can’t a day later.
It's been a busy week for Juan!
It always seems more painful when hearing of a medevac crash, knowing the crew were there solely to help someone in their hour of need & the patient only being in that situation due to some unfortunate life event. Very sad. Thanks for your professional reporting as ever Juan ❤
They were presumably being paid so weren’t there “solely to help someone…”
Well, not really. I mean, they're not volunteers.
@@wattage2007what a trash comment 🤡
From the reporting on this channel, I have gotten the impression that the entire Med-Evac industry is kind of sketchy. I'm sure the employees do their best but the crews are pressured to do all sorts of unsafe things for business reasons.
These high-visibility rescues spend enormous amounts of money that could probably save 10x as many lives if the money was spent more responsibly. It is private money so they have the right to spend it as they please, but they certainly are not optimizing the saving of lives.
Juan, I've been following your channel since the Lake Oroville days. I live in Philly and never did I think you would be covering a crash that occurred so close to home! Great reporting as always!
Been patiently waiting for Juan's preliminary analysis. Always worth it.
What’s crazy is that air ambulance company had another deadly Learjet crash just 15 months ago.
From the net: The Philadelphia crash was the second fatal incident in 15 months for Jet Rescue. In 2023 five crewmembers were killed when their plane overran a runway in the central Mexican state of Morelos and crashed into a hillside.
@@221340 lemme guess, it has to do with capitalism and saving money for the owners
Wow simply sketchy
@@phero2come on, you are not allowed to say that loud :D
@@phero2. Whhaaat???
Thanks Juan, I knew something was off with the stall theories I had seen so far. You are always the voice of reason and details.
I avoided the network news "reports". Been waiting for your video. Thanks.
Kinda amazing. We've gone from trusting faceless corporate brands to trusting an experienced and knowledgeable individual in the actual field. I'm very grateful for these folks and hope to keep finding more since mainstream media is such a garbage bin.
I listened to a video from a (Brand X) four striper and within a couple minutes I knew he was not going to give me useful information so was very pleased to see your post. This is another tragic result.
I clicked off the same video
We all know who you're talking about. Likes to say eeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. He said he thought it was a stall caused by weight and balance. Didn't smell right at all.
I've been refreshing my feed all day waiting for Juan's video. I live just outside Philly over the river in NJ. Such a sad event. So close to home. Prayers for everyone who lost a loved one. 🙏🏻
Juan, you are the voice of reason in a cacophony of those more interested in getting there first rather than getting it right.
As soon as I saw the videos, the low cloud ceiling and the adsb data, I thought of spatial disorientation as well... you're a great teacher.
But you're right, a lot of other things need to be ruled out. The pilot on the radio did sound either fatigued or maybe distracted.
Most of all RIP to the poor young girl and her mother... its just heartbreaking!
Mr. Juan Browne (blancol)
Thank You for this report
You are the absolute best with straightforward and clear explanation of very complex and technical details. You are the Man, A quote often credited to Albert Einstein
"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."
Other media should take classes from you.
Why would there be landing lights if they had positive climb where they would have raised the gear?
Waited all day for this too ❤My heart this past few weeks has been heavy for all the victims of various crashes. 2025 has started off rough.Ty Juan ❤😢
I subscribed, because you're explanation was 10x more detailed and cogent than the 2nd
best explanation. I'm not going to waste my time watching 4-5 videos from others from
no on. I value my time. Thanks for honouring my intelligence. Aarre Peltomaa of Mississauga, Ontario
I just answered a comment on @vasaviation channel before your viseo atrived on my feed. My first thought was runaway trim or some other failure of the horizontal stab to cause such a violent descent rate from a low height. A stall situation would not have that descent profile. Nor was it a weight and balance issue. My other thought was spatial disorientation. Someone else suggested a flap or spoiler assymetry. Now having seen the ads-b data, i can see why spatial disorientation is maybe a more likely option. And yet, you'd expect the crew to be aware and anticipating it and have eyes on instruments. Such a tragic accident.
Juan another incredible job on break down of the flight. Your keen observations is why I watch and subscribe to the channel.
From start of decent to impact was less than 8 seconds. Things happen VERY fast at these speeds, with ZERO visual cues other than your instruments. GOD SPEED for all of them.
I told my husband that because it came down so fast, I wasn't sure if it was really a plane or not. I didn't even think about the spatial confusion scenario but as Juan was talking about it it does make sense. Like JFK Jr's plane...trying to fly in fog and in the dark just made for a tough situation. So very sad.
Thanks for clearing up the possible stall theory going around.
In the soup, at night, spatial disorientation is a problem.
He didn't 'clear up' anything. His take is just as speculative as the so called stall theory.
@@SteveL-v9u except for that pesky ADS-B ground speed data.
@@cessna177flyer3it wasn't a 1G stall, but as Juan has said in the past
"Planes can stall at any airspeed and any attitude, but only OE critical angle of attack"
If the plane was at 3-4G, it could have stalled. Unlikely, but possible.
@ at 3-4 G, you would have seen a corresponding rapid increase in altitude or heading change. Neither of those occurred.
Thanks Juan, also apologies for not previously being subbed - I watch so many of your videos that I genuinely thought I was subscribed. Check twice, cut once as my dad used to say.
Appreciate the quick, accurate and non-judgmental approach to the incidents you cover. Clear skies and happy days!
I recently started a position as travel technician here about 8 months ago or so. I had boarded my first flight headed to Texas and was scared as all hell by airplanes and how they work. after my first couple flights I personally found it fascinating and amazing. I also fell into the rabbit hole of air planes and aviation in general. I have seen a alot of comments on the recent accidents that we have had and it caused me to do further research into such things. Everything is so interesting. The way Atc works the way pilots have to makes split second decisions is quite intriguing. 74 gear did a recent video i believe it was him
The other contributing factor that comes to mind is the pitch trim. There could have been a pitch trim runaway to the nose down position but the other possibility is that the nose up trim was not reset after the landing. This resulted in the rapid rate of climb after takeoff and over application of nose down trim to correct. This combined with spatial disorientation was a contributing factor in the crashes of FlyDubai 981 and Atlas Air 3591.
Something must have distracted the flight crew though because they made almost no attempt to turn to their assigned heading. IDK if that favours the pitch trim runaway or not.
Seems like electric assist pitch trim would be such a single point of failure - especially if it trims very rapidly, more than a human would input. Tragic whatever the cause. RIP.
The early 55s had a Stick Pusher system in them. Did this aircraft have it or was it too new of a model? This certainly could have been an issue if it was commanding a nose down input. Runaway Nose Down Trim and like you mentioned Spatial issues due to acceleration is possible.
But what caused the aircraft to be on fire before hitting the ground?
@@dawhike it wasn’t on fire.
There is a pic of a medical oxygen bottle with the valve broken off that was found some distance ( like 1/4 mile ) away from the crash. Next to the bottle is an electric motor or generator. Some in comment sections " claim " that the bottle tipped over and broke the valve off. The bottle is light aluminum, valve thick brass and in a soft surface environment so this not likely. Valves can break off however this is limited to large steel cylinders in a hard surface environment.
As usual, a great, no nonsense, factual, pilot's view of what happened. Thank you Juan. RIP to all the souls on board, and those killed or injured on the ground. Tragic accident.
This one's really tough. Just some people trying to help a sick kid get home. :(
This is purposely the first explaination video I’ve watched on this crash. As expected, Juan delivers a great analysis of available evidence. My first thought on it was special disorientation due to similarities with past crashes. I also wondered if icing was involved, but it sounds like the conditions weren’t there. Condolences to families of those lost.
worked 3rd shift for 5 years at a Fl FBO and handled a lot of med flights, usually older Lears and Citations. lots of transporting organ harvest teams. quite a few Canadian operators. long story short, if making an international trip buy travel insurance. saw a lady spend 15K to fly from tampa to somewhere in texas one way. daughter was in texas and injured.
Travel insurance does not prevent a plane crash though.
Thank you for clearing up the stall possibility as being reported by others
There is a cvr. NTSB is searching for it. They just had a press conference
Yeah, I heard that, too!
Ty Juan. You/your Blancolirio channel and Pilot Debrief remain my *only* trustworthy sources for about 5 years now. Disclaimer --I was an Aerospace Engineer, glider pilot, armchair crash investigator. Over my aviation lifetime, "aged aircraft /under maintenance" is a culprit in a great deal of crashes. 44 year old Lear jet my God that shoulda been scrapped awhile back is my .02
Always great to get a professional and measured briefing on events such as this. You are the media now.
I’m so thankful for your work in bringing this information to those of us who are interested in aviation. You always cut to the facts with extraneous commentary. Every time there is an aviation incident, I’m always looking forward to hearing your take on the situation.
I'm a long time corporate pilot (retired now) and have flown numerous models of the LearJet.
I was amazed to hear Juan say Lear 55. That model must be 40 + years old by now......and amazed they're even still airworthy.
Just my 2C worth barely 😊😊😊'
Yep! 44 years old...
As a layperson. I heard that also. Not made anymore and ultra high maintenance. Also Mexican registration. Not sure JB mentioned that.
@@BlestinTexas24He did! I heard that in 1 other report I watch & waiting hear from him to make sure it was true! May God have mercy on families involved with this crash! 🙏
My feeling is that something might have broke off and since the engines were still at take-off power, that’s why it came down so fast. Like the engines were actually adding to the gravity
For some reason it reminds me of Elvis' jet(s).
This channel is the gold standard. The attention to the data and lack of speculation is appreciated by myself. Thank you. One observation that I had is one of the doorbell cameras showed another smaller streak of light ahead of the aircraft.
No it’s the only standard!
Probably the landing light shining through the mist?
Excellent as always. I worked heavy MX on Leers years ago including the 55. The data so far only raises more questions. This will be interesting if they ever find out exactly what happened.
Thanks for your insights, Juan. I saw another video (by a commercial captain whom I won't name) who declared that he was certain it was caused by a stall. That didn't make sense to me, but I'm not a pilot.
I watched a video by another aviation expert on the DCA collision and disagreed with what he said just based on what I have learned from Juan. The other guy wanted to blame ATC, yet the transcript from ATC did not indicate them doing anything unusual. Having watched many VASaviation videos, I have learned how to recognize normal ATC transmissions and distinguish unusual situations. With that channel and blancolirio, I get all the (accurate) info I need on most incidents.
Thank you Juan. I keep sending people to your videos in the last few days.
Thank you for your analysis, I was thinking spatial disorientation as well. It’ll be tough for the investigators. I flew Medevac for few years after I retired from the airlines. Hardest flying I ever did. My thoughts and prayers go out to the crew and passengers. Very sad
The last data point is 247 kt ground speed (284 mph); the clip I've seen showing the angle of descent is steep...if it was a 45 degree angle the actual airspeed when it hit the ground would be approximately 483 mph. MASSIVE impact.
Thank you Mr Brown, Blancolirio, and Patreon folks! Yes I appreciate your expertise and helpful videos
This has to have been the most violent crash in recent memory, unfortunately not the only one this past month. Thanks Juan for all you do
Watching its speed at impact was extraordinary. This one is truly baffling.
Excellent video as always, I have been trying to send people over to this channel when I read dumb posts on X. Keep up the good work.
Always appreciate this channel because it just gives the facts and doesn't wade into the tall weeds of conspiratorial nonsense.
In all these crashes, I just wait to hear your take. I am a low hour pilot, and find you cut through the "noise" ! Keep it up !
I can’t like a video on a tragedy but figured commenting will give it the engagement it deserves. Great information and I’ll be following this one.
Brilliant coverage as always...and unfortunately so soon behind the collision in DC just a few nights ago, and how terribly tragic (all crashes involving a loss of life are), but more so given the nature of the flight.
I look forward to further updates of this as well as the DC crash from one of very few trusted sources of aviation news (well any news you cover) over the coming days and weeks. The initial footage on Maximus Aviation was chilling, and certainly raised the hairs at knowing that lives had just been cut tragically short 😔😔😔😔
Thanks again Juan, and a saddened cheers from Sydney Aus!!!! 🍻🍻🍻🍻
I've been waiting all day for you, Juan. 👍 Thanks for the upload!!!!!!
Thanks for your thoughts Juan - Grim reminder that while aviation is still the safest mode of transport, there is particular work to be done in the medevac/air-ambulance/helicopter rescue domain. That sector of the aviation world continues to suffer accidents and fatalities far outside what is seen in other modes. Granted a part of that is the need to be ready to fly in all-weather conditions, but still too many flight nurses, paramedics, and pilots are dying performing this service. Really hoping the FAA is spending extra effort looking at technologies and regulations to improve this situation.
@aarner42 This wasn't a medevac flight. There was no patient emergency. The child had been in Shriners' Childrens' Hospital in Philadelphia for four months. The child and mother were returning home after the end of treatments. If weather had been a concern, the flight probably could have been delayed or postponed.
It is great to see some just reporting the facts of the accident. I also heard of concerns of fuel contamination. Hard to believe that with the speed and rate of decent just before the accident. The aircraft clearly appears to still be at full power.
I always wait for your report on aviation accidents to learn what really happened. Thanks again Juan !!
I have tears again. We humans have to do better!
Retired ATC 27 years
Instrument problems and then spatial disorientation sound like top candidates based on the limited information we have now.
Only other plausable is an engine failure and inputing in the wrong rudder input. But agree with his take, definitely not the stall others were rushing to say
Some sources state that ADS-B data captured 400+ Kph speed at the last moments before the crash , thats a high speed for an engine failure!
@@awhite3713 I don't know what makes you think engines at all. Given the rate of climb - I feel confident that engine failure is unlikely. Even if an engine fails catastrophically - the plane isn't going to just nose-over. Far more likely is a stab issue or weight and balance miscalculation. The Learjet is about as unforgiving an aircraft as there is if you don't get it loaded correctly.
@ELITE-xn3sh not really if the other engine is max. I am not saying that is what happened, but when I upgraded to CA in a regional jet, my FO did exactly what I was talking about at about the same altitude in the sim. the quick roll rate and acceleration in the dive make me certain it is plausible. but again I am saying the other options are as well.
@@Joseph55220 While you are the expert on that, and I'm just an observer, my thoughts ruled out an overweight situation due to there being only 6 people on board. I don't think medical equipment weighs that much more, and I'm sure the pilots had accounted for that in their calculations. I also ruled out engine failure based only on the videos. Juan's analysis backs that up. But an issue with the plane's configuration cannot be ruled out at this time. His mention of the yaw damper makes sense. The weather could have been a factor, but not due to icing conditions, because the temperature was warm enough for rain. I'm glad he raised the issue of spatial disorientation, because I had not thought of that. My thoughts leaned toward there being something wrong with the plane, but Juan notes that a couple of other similar accidents are considered to have been caused by spatial disorientation instead. Thanks for your comment!