Try using a microphone so we could actually hear you. It sounds like you're in the back of a room somewhere. PS. The national association of Realtors has been wrong on every prediction they've made in the last 3 years. So I wouldn't take them as a credible source of information.
I was only 3 minutes into this video and there was so much misinformation and plain wrong info I didn't bother to watch the rest. I wonder, were you here in 2007-2011? I find most realtors who were not here for that have no concept of why , how or how long it took to get to the bottom. Also, NAR/FAR info is always pushing an optimistic view despite evidence to the contrary and NAR's Chief economist was dead wrong then and probably is now, again. Bet you didn't know more than 700K people left Florida since Ian and that our migration during covid was only 2% overall. Hardly sustainable. Also, how about that 52% of mortgages made over the last few years are considered "at risk". And all those "cash" closings-most were refi-ed AFTER closing because realtors pushed the narrative of " cash " gets the deal along with waiving inspections. Stats.....sales are dropping...and fast. The fact is, we are due for a correction or "crash" and the definition of crash is 20% drop or more in sales price. I think you quoted 19% early on in your video. I heard alot of "cherry picked " headlines and selective quoting. 25% think its a bad time to buy? Not the stats I'm seeing. Way higher. As for inventory, with rates as they are, no one wants to sell if they will need another mortgage (or buy) and inventory will climb if not just from those who overbought, particularly investment properties, and can't make the payments with outrageous insurance and taxes added in, or the rents keep dropping as the seem to be now. Are you one of those realtors who say " date the rate and marry the house"? Refi later? Well, you can't if you don't have 20% equity+ because you bought in the last year or two. And my guess is, you will have less equity in the next couple of years than if you bought 2022-now.I guess if you are in the market for 1-2 Million$ + house, you may not care but middle class americans here are being squeezed. Stay tuned, you may learn something.
I'm sorry, but what is the name of your business? And I would very much appreciate if you would send me the statistics/data that you are referencing regarding all 50% loans being "high risk". With the national appreciation over the past 2 years, even someone who bought in late 2022, most likely has some equity in their home if they need to sell - and the severe housing shortage we currently have, continues to prop prices up in many parts of the country (there are always exceptions). By the way, I was purchasing properties out of foreclosure in 2006-2008 and getting loans on them while putting almost nothing down. I also recently wrapped up a loan (within 3 months) so am extremely familiar with the differences in that market and this one. The lending (and market) conditions aren't even remotely similar. Anyone who could draw a breath could get a loan prior to the real estate crash. That is most definitely NOT the case today.
@@lovethewayyoulivenaples I have 3 businesses and what is the relevance of that to this conversation? I will tell you I am an active licensed broker since 1989 and during the last time have negotiated over 300 short-sales and flips from 2007 to 2015. About 20M$. You wanna know more than that you can Google me. It's not pertinent to the conversation. It's actually 52% not 50% but maybe you are confused by the term "At risk". This includes any FHA/FNMA/USDA or Govt subsidized program with low down strokes. These, historically are some of the first to default. 2nd Homes, vacation homes, rental properties. These again historically are not primaries so they get let go. Then lastly, the owner occupiers and strategic defaults. Besides, I'm not saying the conditions are the same. Realtors keep pointing to that and keep saying "But its different this time." The reasons, the timelines are different but human reaction to things like recession, job loss, outrageous cost of living, low savings rates, unaffordable rents, insurance etc is predictable. We are entering a recessionary period (unless of course, you're one of these people who believe it's been averted or we will have a "soft" landing. Wages are back on the decline, yes in Naples, hiring has slowed and if you heard the news yesterday, inflation is up for the 2nd month, SO my guess is, the Fed will continue to raise rates (as we have predicted all year here) at least through the end of the year and MY guess until May 2024. Also my guess is, the market (values will bottom out some 6 months after the Fed reverses hikes.) We only share our data and sources when we do our events of which we had our first one about 2-3 weeks ago. we had a few people mostly mortgage brokers, who came and originally disagreed with our position who said they could not find any flaws in the data or the conclusions. we had a number of realtors sign up but didnt come. Most do not want to hear the news yet my understanding some 30% have already dropped out. By the way we do not have a "severe housing shortage". Another story. We have a severe AFFORDABLE housing shortage. See how many building permits are out locally, regionally, and statewide. I believe we will have a glut within a year and many builders sales have dropped to the point they are doing buydowns with special financing. Real builders not the guy who builds 2 a year. Nobody has a crystal ball but history and the present data sure rhymes.
Try using a microphone so we could actually hear you. It sounds like you're in the back of a room somewhere. PS. The national association of Realtors has been wrong on every prediction they've made in the last 3 years. So I wouldn't take them as a credible source of information.
Thanks for the tip - obviously I need a better microphone than the one I'm using.
I was only 3 minutes into this video and there was so much misinformation and plain wrong info I didn't bother to watch the rest. I wonder, were you here in 2007-2011? I find most realtors who were not here for that have no concept of why , how or how long it took to get to the bottom. Also, NAR/FAR info is always pushing an optimistic view despite evidence to the contrary and NAR's Chief economist was dead wrong then and probably is now, again. Bet you didn't know more than 700K people left Florida since Ian and that our migration during covid was only 2% overall. Hardly sustainable. Also, how about that 52% of mortgages made over the last few years are considered "at risk". And all those "cash" closings-most were refi-ed AFTER closing because realtors pushed the narrative of " cash " gets the deal along with waiving inspections. Stats.....sales are dropping...and fast. The fact is, we are due for a correction or "crash" and the definition of crash is 20% drop or more in sales price. I think you quoted 19% early on in your video. I heard alot of "cherry picked " headlines and selective quoting. 25% think its a bad time to buy? Not the stats I'm seeing. Way higher. As for inventory, with rates as they are, no one wants to sell if they will need another mortgage (or buy) and inventory will climb if not just from those who overbought, particularly investment properties, and can't make the payments with outrageous insurance and taxes added in, or the rents keep dropping as the seem to be now. Are you one of those realtors who say " date the rate and marry the house"? Refi later? Well, you can't if you don't have 20% equity+ because you bought in the last year or two. And my guess is, you will have less equity in the next couple of years than if you bought 2022-now.I guess if you are in the market for 1-2 Million$ + house, you may not care but middle class americans here are being squeezed. Stay tuned, you may learn something.
I'm sorry, but what is the name of your business? And I would very much appreciate if you would send me the statistics/data that you are referencing regarding all 50% loans being "high risk". With the national appreciation over the past 2 years, even someone who bought in late 2022, most likely has some equity in their home if they need to sell - and the severe housing shortage we currently have, continues to prop prices up in many parts of the country (there are always exceptions).
By the way, I was purchasing properties out of foreclosure in 2006-2008 and getting loans on them while putting almost nothing down. I also recently wrapped up a loan (within 3 months) so am extremely familiar with the differences in that market and this one. The lending (and market) conditions aren't even remotely similar. Anyone who could draw a breath could get a loan prior to the real estate crash. That is most definitely NOT the case today.
@@lovethewayyoulivenaples I have 3 businesses and what is the relevance of that to this conversation? I will tell you I am an active licensed broker since 1989 and during the last time have negotiated over 300 short-sales and flips from 2007 to 2015. About 20M$. You wanna know more than that you can Google me. It's not pertinent to the conversation. It's actually 52% not 50% but maybe you are confused by the term "At risk". This includes any FHA/FNMA/USDA or Govt subsidized program with low down strokes. These, historically are some of the first to default. 2nd Homes, vacation homes, rental properties. These again historically are not primaries so they get let go. Then lastly, the owner occupiers and strategic defaults. Besides, I'm not saying the conditions are the same. Realtors keep pointing to that and keep saying "But its different this time." The reasons, the timelines are different but human reaction to things like recession, job loss, outrageous cost of living, low savings rates, unaffordable rents, insurance etc is predictable. We are entering a recessionary period (unless of course, you're one of these people who believe it's been averted or we will have a "soft" landing. Wages are back on the decline, yes in Naples, hiring has slowed and if you heard the news yesterday, inflation is up for the 2nd month, SO my guess is, the Fed will continue to raise rates (as we have predicted all year here) at least through the end of the year and MY guess until May 2024. Also my guess is, the market (values will bottom out some 6 months after the Fed reverses hikes.) We only share our data and sources when we do our events of which we had our first one about 2-3 weeks ago. we had a few people mostly mortgage brokers, who came and originally disagreed with our position who said they could not find any flaws in the data or the conclusions. we had a number of realtors sign up but didnt come. Most do not want to hear the news yet my understanding some 30% have already dropped out. By the way we do not have a "severe housing shortage". Another story. We have a severe AFFORDABLE housing shortage. See how many building permits are out locally, regionally, and statewide. I believe we will have a glut within a year and many builders sales have dropped to the point they are doing buydowns with special financing. Real builders not the guy who builds 2 a year. Nobody has a crystal ball but history and the present data sure rhymes.