The Genius Strategy Behind Blake Snell’s Historic Season
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- Опубліковано 21 лис 2023
- Hey everyone!
The 2023 Padres were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball last season. However, this featured quite a few award winners, including NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Although, this was one of the strangest, but also one of the most dominant pitching seasons in recent memory.
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Rangers video next week (hopefully)
Padres video by the end of the year
Happy Thanksgiving!
Storm you should take a dive into the rangers miraculous 2023 of all the highs and lows and how they did it and the road to glory
That's the plan!
@@SportStorm23 Thank you alot
He definitely has a very strange and unique way of pitching. To lead the league in walks and era is insane
This is how teams are trying to develop. It doesn't matter if you walk guys if nobody can hit your stuff.
@@parkercrossland410 the issue is that he's the only starter to ever have long term success this way
@@CCDaDon15
No. He isn't. Tommy Byrne and Bob Feller both walked a boatload of guys and won consistently... Won World Series, as a matter of fact.
Maybe fact check before your next babblefest, junior.
@@TheBatugan77 dude... I'm talking about since the 90s. Why are your first two examples guys from the 40s? I'm talking about how currently they're valuing STUFF and movement over control. The closest example we have for that is Kerry Wood and I would not say he was a long term success. Meanwhile Snell is a two time Cy young 6 years apart, on his way to his second contract after passing arbitration years. At least ask me some questions about the parameters I'm setting to my point before just acting like I'm an idiot. I'd like to have a normal conversation about baseball without the insults.
@@CCDaDon15 Yes, but it's a mold that a lot of teams are basing their pitching development on. Throw gas, be nasty, and if he has any sense of command he's dominant. The ability to execute is lacking a lot of the time.
Snell is the definition of a heart attack on the mound 😂
He's the most unpredictable pitcher I've ever watched, but on his best days he's one of the best
I loved watching when he pitched. Probably going to buy one of his jerseys. His interviews were really fun to watch also.
His stuff has to stay elite or everything will flip on him. He's walking a tightrope. He could turn into Ubaldo Jiminez at any moment.
Smell leading his league in era and walks is like a position player leading their league in batting average and strikeouts: a true statistical anomaly
I got to watch Snell live against the Cubs in early June, about 14 rows back, almost dead center with the catcher. The movement is still absolutely gross.
Blake Snell Def An Underrated Pitcher His Way He Gets Out of Jams Is Insane
some would say hes overrated.
Must@@NotSoSvenn must be why he is a two-time Cy Young winner!
It’s also why he isn’t signed and won’t get a contract anywhere near what a two time Cy winner would expect. Walks do matter, unless we’re saying baserunners don’t matter, so OBP in turn doesn’t matter. Playing with fire.
This is great analysis! I'm really glad I stumbled upon this.
As a Padres fan, I love this so much! What a joy it was to watch Snell pitch!
Thank you!
I was there for the Sept 19th game! Thought we were gonna be in trouble early after his first few pitches, but Snell cleaned it up as always! So crazy that the man is STILL a free agent!!
Well produced and solid information on the most unique genius in the majors today. Subbed. I drafted Snell and hung in there through June and wow what a great decision it was. When he’s locked in? It’s like watching Picasso or Van Gogh, I was on the edge of my seat all year.
This was so well done, I insta-subbed! 👏👏👌
Appreciate the sources!
I've been a Blake Snell fan since game 6 of the world series so I am glad he is doing much better then he was (although as a Giants fan, sad to see Webb not win the Cy Young)
Logan Webb has quietly turned into an ace over the past couple years. Great contract too
In 2021 I hadnt been watching most games until late July. The first Webb start I ever saw was against Houston and I said to my grandma "We've got something here"
he was his own reliever and his own closer while being a starter
what an incredible performance by black snell 👏
Yeah Blake snail is the man
9:02 dangerous words/theory. What happens when his stuff takes a dip? Any team thinking of signing him long term must have massive balls
Bizarre, absolutely.
Epic to watch from start to finish? Also absolutely.
Great vid man, Blake had a Snelluva season
Love him when he was in Tampa.
Blake Snell is definitely an interesting pitcher, and we all know the Padres had a reason to get him, and he put it together in his last two years with San Diego in a incredible way. I think Snell is either gonna sign with the Phillies or the Mets.
At the beginning of the season I was calling him "Stinky Snell" or "Stinkzilla". By the end of the year he was my fav pitcher. Great comeback story.
His season reminds me of 2022 Blake Snell. Led the league in walks, bWAR, but still managed to dominate.
What lol
Think you mean Dylan Cease lol
oh yes blake snell sometimes reminds me of blake snell too
He also led the league in fewest hits per 9. Also he was 6th in fewest homeruns per 9. It helps when no one is hitting the ball hard. The guy misses bats.
Any chance there’ll be a video on the Twins’ run to the ‘91 WS?
Also, first
Can’t wait for the rangers video!
Snell and Steele could be a fun combo in Chicago
2 CY Young Awards
One in each League
I don’t see a contender as long as he stays in the N.L.
3 CY Young’s and he’s looking at Cooperstown.
Logan Webb Zac Gallen Zack wheeler Justin Steele
Part of this "strategy" is the fact he doesn't go deep into games. No complete games, only pitched 7 innings 3 times this past season with most starts only going 5-6. Not taking anything away, but not facing those line ups one more time helps the ERA a lot, while taxing the bullpen a little more. There is a trade off that has a substantial cost.
Also walks help skyrocket the pitch count. You're not going to see a pitcher who walks guys pitch complete games anymore.
Yes, you are taking something away. Stop lying to yourself
I went to the game when he pitched against New York in april
If you put any stock in stuff like FIP, xFIP, and xERA, Snell had better numbers across the board in 2022 than in 2023. There's also the abnormally low BABIP of .256 in 2023 vs. .307 in 2022. A lot of analytically-minded front offices would be quick to point out at the bargaining table that 2.25 ERA in 2023 was probably a bit of a fluke.
Still, he's a guy I'd like to sign if my team was contending. Love the Ks, love the low HR rate, but down the line the BBs will come back to haunt him if he keeps issuing them.
It really depends on what kind of trust he has in his defense and catcher. I honestly think it looks worse than what it is.
FIP's flaw is that it only measures "how good is a pitcher at 3 true outcomes," and it doesn't really measure how good a pitcher is at pitching to contact.
Toronto needs this kid
All these experts are quick to harp on his flaws, he was going over fielding strategies with his teammates. Some people fail to realize he produced results.
Snell needs to become a pitching coach after this but he doesn't need the money. He's never mentioned when people mention the "best pitchers of this generation" instead Cole, Strider, Gausman, Framber Valdez are always who people bring up.
Very inconsistent career due to his pitching style and injuries, but on his best day he has some of the best stuff in the league
Gary Sanchez turned it around for Snell.
Bro, Snell is Schrodinger's pitcher. Also, cant dimish Gary Sances's contribution with Snel's turnarouhnd.
Schrodinger's pitcher is a VERY good way of describing him. Speaking from more than enough years riding the Snell train...
I am bad at stats and I am bad at pitching. However I have always found it... Odd..? That baseball brains tell us that small sample sizes are useless and then judge relievers, pinch hitters, minor leaguers, on two or three innings.
This is half a thought. If we judge Snell by his first 10 pitches he's rubbish. But his next 30 he's gold? I'm a cricket transplant and a huge part of test cricket bowling is setting up the batters with your previous bowling - tricking them into what to expect. In baseball if they expect a walk they'll be more willing to take a strike? On first pass through a lineup strikeouts are more likely - so pitch your worst stuff and walk then - then when you come around to the third pass then you clip the edges you're going to get fewer swings?
This is very rambly and I would love someone who knows a lot about baseball to sort of give me an explanation (or link to a YT channel) on the background of pitch choices etc
I think I get the gist of your point, and I can't claim any true familiarity with how cricket is played, but I like where you're coming from so I'll see if I can offer any insights.
Conventional baseball knowledge does suggest that it's easier to hit a pitcher the second or third time you face them in a game, on account of 1) the familiarity and 2) the fact that the more pitches they throw, the more likely it is that they'll be fatigued and be throwing with less velocity and/or movement. That being said, managers in the modern era are quicker than they've ever been to pull their starters and bring in a reliever, largely because of things like this. For the first chunk of baseball history, the game was the starting pitcher's to win or lose, and unless you were doing exceptionally bad you weren't generally going anywhere. Then relief pitchers became a bit more common, but they'd often pitch multiple innings, be used in a less specialized manner, etc., and although starters were on a shorter leash, they'd generally be left in as long as the manager felt they could be left in. By now, bullpen depth is pretty essential for any roster, and statisticians realized you have a better chance of winning if your starter stayed in just long enough to get you halfway or slightly more than halfway through the game, at which point you hand the game over to the bullpen and the ball changes hands enough to ideally keep the opposing offense on their toes the rest of the game, so you can either hold onto your lead or limit scoring enough to catch up, if you're behind.
All by way of saying that you don't need to think THAT far ahead as a starter in today's game, you need to get as many batters out as you can, and ideally as efficiently as you can. Throw strikes, keep people off the bases, limit scoring as best you can. There are occasionally times you might pitch around a hitter, avoiding the strike zone because maybe in that specific situation you'd rather risk walking them and taking your chances with the guy on deck then seeing what they can do with a hittable pitch, but those instances are few and far-between, and probably even moreso with the DH in the NL now. In general, the more baserunners you allow, the more runs you allow, and the more pitches you throw, the sooner you can expect to be pulled from the game. In other words, approaching a lineup in the manner you proposed would likely be counterproductive, in general but especially considering the nuances of the modern game.
As far as setting up pitches, it's more the type of thing that occurs within a single at-bat. Obviously, depending on a pitcher's strengths there may be some overlap in how they approach the lineup as a whole, but the slate is kind of wiped clean with each new batter, and this is only truer with the level of scouting reports available on every batter these days. The primary goal of any pitcher in the vast majority of at-bats is simple: get ahead in the count. Batters generally hit worse when they're in a pitcher's count (0-2, 1-2, etc.), and better when they themselves are ahead in the count (1-0, 2-1...). If you're a pitcher and the count is in your favor, then you can really play with the hitter's mind and subvert their expectations, both physical and mental. Say the count's 0-2 for example. There are infinite ways to go about it for a pitcher in that situation, but unless you're facing a really weak hitter you're probably not going to give them a good pitch to hit. That's when you'll see a slider that starts on the outer third and breaks off the plate outside, or maybe a high fastball. Maybe you'll throw an inside fastball, and then even if they take it for a ball, you follow it up with a change-up on the outside corner. The contrast from fast to slow might make the batter end up out in front of the pitch, and the contrast from inside to outside might cause them to reach for the ball more than they would have if you'd hit the same location with the previous pitch. Those are really basic examples, and I hope the way I explained then makes sense. Just wanted to see if I could shed any light on your questions!
@@robbiearroyo2292bro thank you so much for taking the time to write this! So helpful!
@lukerichardson8097 anytime! Glad it could be of use.
an all time pitching season by one of the best lefties in the game with Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts and Kim and absolutely nothing to show for it......what the eff happened?
Machado was a no show for entire first third of the season. Bogaerts for half of it. Tatis also missing the first month set them back. Soto was in the dog house for underperforming and also his defensive errors were costing games. They just arent that good.
Terrible situational hitting and the team could never click all at once for a prolonged period. I'm making a video on them soon
1 win 12 losses in extras. AZ only had 2 more wins than us and went to the Series. That's what happened.
There’s never been a cy young winner entering free agency who I’d hard pass on.
The guy doesn’t go deep into games & walks a ton of guys. Any team signing him long term should hold onto their seats
He definitely has a risky player profile. He'd be perfect for a team that has a great top of the rotation starter already so he doesn't have to be the ace (Giants/Mariners/DBacks)
I still dont know how Snell won the cy young. Dude only shows up in the second half. He could barely make it past the 3rd or 4th inning these last few seasons as a padre during the first halves
Snell-Zilla doesn't care about collateral damage, he just wrecks everything to get the W.
He also has one of the best defensive lineup to back him up in sticky situations.
Explain please
@@rustyshackelford4224 Tatis won platinum glove and he has a great infield to back him up
2021 Robbie Ray sure was an experience, lol. Glad the Jays decided to give that money to Gausman instead.
It's a pretty weak competition but someone has to win it.
Loser
At least he had a better year than 21 where he got taken out after 1 out in Pittsburgh
10:19 my 2 year old nice can pitch 7 no hit innings against the Rockies.
why you did not talk about his FIP?
Rangers video is about to go hard
Snell isn't Nolan Ryan, but his stats are very much like Ryan. There's precedent for guys that walk a lot but don't give up hits so don't give up runs.
Walks are not and have never been the same as a hit. Hits are ALWAYS better
walks don’t really matter if they don’t lead to runs, his ERA is the lowest in the league and his strikeout total and K/9 rate are among the best in the league. snell’s the kind of pitcher who can absolutely dominate and go into a rich run of form that could lead a team to a WS title. hell u could argue he was almost there before kevin cash pulled him out … that’s up for debate.
anyway snell should be signing a deal north of 200M esp after nola’s contract was 172M.
walking that many guys isn't sustainable which is why he has never been consistently good
It also means he won’t go deep into games. Which doesn’t hurt his individual stats but affects the team over the course of a season
Nola is better than Snell lol
@@Tyler-xd5ns Then why did Snell win the Cy Young instead of Nola? You know nothing about pitchers.
@@Mostillist He has won 2 Cy Young awards and you don't think he is good? Stop drinking!
Weird, I have the same strategy playing the Show. I would much rather walk a dude than go after a great hitter with a meatball that gets launched into the stratosphere
I must be the only one not completely surprised that his strategy works. To me Snells' philosophy is basically like applying the launch angle revolution to pitchers.
Hitters don't care to hit for contact because it takes 3 hits to score a run. So why bother hitting a single when you can just try for a HR instead.
Snell doesn't care if he walks a guy. Big deal. If your stuff is THAT elite, like his is, all you need is 3 outs. Doesn't matter if you walk 2 guys, if your H/9 is the best in the league and you strike out 33% of batters. Even if you walk the leadoff guy, chances are given the high K rate and low H/9, chances are you get the next 3 out.
However this only works as long as his stuff is THAT elite. Which it won't be forever.
He Is A Head Hunter
The criteria for Cy Young is watered down to the point if drowning.
So having an ERA of just over 2 like Snell did is a poor Cy Young criteria?
The difference in 2022 and 2023 was BABIP so it was about bad luck vs. good luck.
so he's the modern day nolan ryan who has a good era lmao very interesting
Cy Youngs are voted for by journalists. It’s no good going on about the stats!
I thought it was voted for by managers.
@@user-ew9xd3zj1o Cy Young voters are members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
Basically Yankees David Robertson, but as a starter: always working themselves into a jam, but often times then proceeding to work right back of it.
To be super forward. He figured it out allot in the later half. However dude only pitched like 5.5 innings a game and had nothing to lose with a team that put no pressure on him due to their record.
With that comment you prove that you are not godlike
Blake snail
W
i kept telling my brother and dad snell was the goat, and they didn't believe me.. then this year happened. 😂
I mean, he’s still not the goat. But he’s good 🤷🏼♂️
dub
He was so trash like the first month and change of the season. Crazy how insane he finished up.
He needs to be brought up on chargers for that robbery, I'm blown away.
Walks DO matter. This was a weak year for starting pitchers in the NL. Now the 5-inning wonder is a free agent and I'll be pissed if my team signs him.
Snell was so good. Shame the padres werent great this year and didnt take advantage of it. Hope he gets that bag this year. He deserves it.
Good pitcher, but signing him long term for big money is beyond risky. What happens when his stuff dips?
He already doesnt go deep into games & walks dudes. If he dips at all he’d be an expensive walk machine who gives you maybe 6 innings
I dropped him in fantasy baseball RIGHT before he turned it around. I'm the real reason for his epic season; you're welcome, everyone.
I am a giants fan so I think Logan Webb should have won it because he had 20 more innings than Snell
Webb's ERA was over a point higher than Snells! Having said that, I believe Webb will win it one day.
@@user-ew9xd3zj1o yes because Logan had 20 more innings
@@Busterallday28 So what? He did not win the Cy Young! Give it up!
@@user-ew9xd3zj1o Your actually dumb😂 I am trying to say “of course Logan Webb had a higher ERA he pitched 20 more inning than Snell and had less walks in more innings compared to Snell”
0:06 Gaylord lmao
the twins need to pick up snell. after dumping sonny and kenta maeda it would be a great fit
It’s data. Allow a double or a walk. Give up the walk. It’s data.
Who cares how much he walks, i dont care if he loads the bases every inning as long as he doesnt give up runs im good.
It impacts how deep he goes into games which affects his team over the course of a season
Without trying, this is, almost a video as to why teams should be apprehensive about signing Snell. After watching, knowing he will get a ton of money, I wouldn't sign him.
The only reason he did this good was because of the GOAT Whale
I don't sell has ever walked anybody in his mlb career
It's refreshing to see a ballplayer brush aside arbitrary numbers in a post Money Ball era where meaningless stats have become bigger than the game itself and not merely a reflection of the game.
Yeah sure, walk the lead off guy, that's never came back to bite anyone in the ass.
Walks for pitchers are overrated just as strikeouts are for hitters
Padres will resign Snellzilla.
😂
His name is Snell he gets batters to go fishing
Another video using the word “broke”. This is getting out of hand.🙄
This is why he’s going to be a terrible signing for value. He’s going to to be too volatile.
Walks don't matter. Wins do. And he ain't got many of those... 8 seasons and 71 wins? This kid is a joke and so are the CYA voters.
You very stupid if you think wins matter