Great video Scott! Here is something I'v been working on for some time. I have a question, I think you will find interesting. Have you ever considered using Elliot Wave theory? I assume you are aware of this as a math dude. You are aware I'm confident, that any 50/50 probability charted over time will create an Elliot Wave 3 legs (up or down) and two converse legs for a total of 5 legs. This is why random events seem to come in 3's as the 'old wive tell' suggests. It's actually math and random event have 3 spikes. So, what's does this master pattern of the universe have to do with dice? Well, there are 36 combination, 18 even and 18 odd. Also, 50% the rolls are below 7 and 50% are above 7. Also, the (5,6,8,9) have 18 ways to roll and the (2,3,4,7,10,11,12) have 18 ways to roll, right? Right, so now let's chart all 3 (50/50) probablilities in a dice game and compare the their Elliot Waves. Two will trend one direction and the 3 rd will trend the opposite. Now, we know what numbers must roll to regress to the mean, right? So, we let the "table's Elliot Wave fuction" dictate our wagering strategy. We don't know the 'next' roll but we do know the trend, break outs, support levels, resistants. Like 'Bollinger Bands' the markets are totally random. However, the patterns are absolute. If, you are interested, I have written program that will do this math and charts the 3 waves in real time on your iphone; all you have to do is enter the last number that rolled. You do need about 36 rolls or one sigma of data to begin noticing the chart formations.
Ok, now this is cool. I haven't heard of that. But I'm going to look into it. I might build a model here. My initial reaction hearing this for the first time is whether you expose yourself to major losses on a 'black swan' event. Regardless, very cool comment and something I'm excited to research!
Thanks for your quick response, Scott. When I was much younger, myself, Timothy Case and Col. Wood developed 'Pinnacle' trading system that charted Elliot Wave on 40 commodities in real time, no small feat back in the early 80's. We had to link three 286 computer in order to have enough ram to complete the task, plus link to an expensive dish satellite that cost about $600 per month. Our team won the 'USA Today' investment challenge contest using this system. I've been intrigued every since with Elliot Wave. Of course, we are in a managed market these days with circuit breakers, pauses for volitility, FED back stopping, the central planners also purchase index funds, etc., etc. This is not characteristics of 'free markets'. I'd be pleased to share what information I have with you. As far as 'black swans', you're correct. The trend is just the trend the player must decide between a contrarian position or a trend following position.
@@ScottLevyYT Scott, this is big: "QUALIA has demonstrated an ability to statistically significantly improve the way in which it selects its optimal action-selection policies in different deep Q-networks, exhibiting meta-cognition." In other words, the sequences of dice rolls comparing the 3 Elliot waves do not forecast the 'next' roll, but will forecast the highest probability of the 'next' roll! This is my theorem, nevertheless. Of course, this will end life as we know it in this simulation or 'our thinking about how we think', would you agree?
Complete waste of time . Regression to the mean will not manifest in the time a player is at the table . I see people with their little notebooks writing down the rolls and have to laugh .
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interesting take. thanks!
thanks,good stuff
good video - i came from the other video too.
nice work
Thank you!
The drawback to playing the Don't is that the player generally needs a bigger bank roll to take full advantage of laying the odds .
Yeah makes sense cause you’re laying like 1:2
wouldluvto see p/c vs dp/dc fulloddsall
I play the don'ts, and I usually win, but I also get wiped out when I lose, lol.
With odds? Do you do don’t come and odds too?
Great video Scott! Here is something I'v been working on for some time. I have a question, I think you will find interesting. Have you ever considered using Elliot Wave theory? I assume you are aware of this as a math dude. You are aware I'm confident, that any 50/50 probability charted over time will create an Elliot Wave 3 legs (up or down) and two converse legs for a total of 5 legs. This is why random events seem to come in 3's as the 'old wive tell' suggests. It's actually math and random event have 3 spikes. So, what's does this master pattern of the universe have to do with dice? Well, there are 36 combination, 18 even and 18 odd. Also, 50% the rolls are below 7 and 50% are above 7. Also, the (5,6,8,9) have 18 ways to roll and the (2,3,4,7,10,11,12) have 18 ways to roll, right?
Right, so now let's chart all 3 (50/50) probablilities in a dice game and compare the their Elliot Waves. Two will trend one direction and the 3 rd will trend the opposite. Now, we know what numbers must roll to regress to the mean, right? So, we let the "table's Elliot Wave fuction" dictate our wagering strategy. We don't know the 'next' roll but we do know the trend, break outs, support levels, resistants. Like 'Bollinger Bands' the markets are totally random. However, the patterns are absolute. If, you are interested, I have written program that will do this math and charts the 3 waves in real time on your iphone; all you have to do is enter the last number that rolled. You do need about 36 rolls or one sigma of data to begin noticing the chart formations.
Ok, now this is cool.
I haven't heard of that. But I'm going to look into it. I might build a model here. My initial reaction hearing this for the first time is whether you expose yourself to major losses on a 'black swan' event. Regardless, very cool comment and something I'm excited to research!
Thanks for your quick response, Scott. When I was much younger, myself, Timothy Case and Col. Wood developed 'Pinnacle' trading system that charted Elliot Wave on 40 commodities in real time, no small feat back in the early 80's. We had to link three 286 computer in order to have enough ram to complete the task, plus link to an expensive dish satellite that cost about $600 per month. Our team won the 'USA Today' investment challenge contest using this system. I've been intrigued every since with Elliot Wave. Of course, we are in a managed market these days with circuit breakers, pauses for volitility, FED back stopping, the central planners also purchase index funds, etc., etc. This is not characteristics of 'free markets'. I'd be pleased to share what information I have with you. As far as 'black swans', you're correct. The trend is just the trend the player must decide between a contrarian position or a trend following position.
@@ScottLevyYT Scott, this is big: "QUALIA has demonstrated an ability to statistically significantly improve the way in which it selects its optimal action-selection policies in different deep Q-networks, exhibiting meta-cognition." In other words, the sequences of dice rolls comparing the 3 Elliot waves do not forecast the 'next' roll, but will forecast the highest probability of the 'next' roll! This is my theorem, nevertheless. Of course, this will end life as we know it in this simulation or 'our thinking about how we think', would you agree?
Complete waste of time . Regression to the mean will not manifest in the time a player is at the table . I see people with their little notebooks writing down the rolls and have to laugh .