This NEW Pattern Is Concerning For Hurricane Season (2024 Atlantic Season)
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- Опубліковано 21 вер 2024
- A new emerging pattern in the Atlantic is increasing the chances further for a very active active 2024 hurricane season. Cooler than normal water temperatures have emerged off the U.S. which will help focus storm development for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to the main development region and Caribbean. The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to look extremely active.
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Chapters:
00:00: Intro
1:01: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (2024 Hurricane Season)
03:00: La-Nina Update (2024 Hurricane Season El-Nino Update)
03:57: Analogs For 2024 Hurricane Season (Current SST Anomaly)
05:23: Analogs For 2024 Hurricane (Model SST Forecast)
08:00: Model Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Season
08:35: Model Forecast Track For 2024 Hurricane Season
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Certainly don't like the latest Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly pattern. Just another thing that points to an active season. Rooting for fish storms! - Jonathan
P
Too bad we do not control nothing but our behavior!
Florida acts as if they’re the only ones who experience hurricanes. Wilmington NC has had its fair share too. I lost my childhood home in 1999 due to Hurricane Floyd flooding and spent countless days boarding up and sandbagging. Stay safe everyone
That is true Florida think they going get hurricanes all the time that’s not how weather works hurricanes can hit any where in the United States if it wants to just because Florida the capital does not mean they will get everything.
As a Floridian, all I can say is: Noooooo!
Couldn’t agree more! I’m in Florida too and we need a quiet season! - Jonathan
As an Alabamaian I’m hyped
Right there with you!!!
Just hearing gives me PTSD .....thanks to Ian and Irma ....
Gonna bored up and leave them up till end of season😂@@PaulaTourville-po7fg
Louisianian here sure don't need a Category 5 on the Gulf Coast from Texas, Mississippi Florida etc..
Yeah you guys need a break. - Jonathan
Already disgusting high Temps here in Vero Beach Florida area! Ugh! And no rain for weeks!
I know. I’m just up the road in Orlando and it’s been awful. Grass in crunchy! - Jonathan
@@just_weather Im in Jensen its pretty warm here to. East Coast seems to be good with those models shown.
@Golfingferdie You dont see all that rain pointing toward the east coast of Florida in August and September smh 🤦 and also the the ECMWF precipitation anomaly, it has florida being hugged from both sides of the state by Precipitation
Sebastian here
Well, not so EXACTLY. I live 25 miles South of you. I've had rain 3 times this week, but it's been at night. Maybe you missed it, plus storms don't hit everywhere equally. I have noticed, however, that Vero Beach HAS been hit and with DAYTIME storms. I'm not sure what you're saying or why. What I DO see is that even my weeds are getting baked to a crisp. That's the sun. Rain was here.
Thank you for a video loaded with good science and information, not loud fear mongering and advertising. Just subscribed!
Welcome to the team! I appreciate that! - Jonathan
Wow! This is looking bad, my friend! Awesome Tropical update as always, Jonathan!
This is SUCH BS
COOL WATER will NOT promote hurricanes. Thats why we dont have them in WINTER
This guy is an idiot
I'm in South West Florida and I have many neighbors still waiting on roofs and repairs from Ian!!!!! 😢
It’s terrible. I can’t even imagine. I’m just up the road in central Florida and people are still recovering from the flooding from Ian. - Jonathan
Which was a manmade storm and a test for what’s coming. Hello from Naples.
@@michellebatzel5809If you know this why are you still there ?
Hello from Puerto Rico. Thanks for this information.
Hello! You are very welcome! - Jonathan
South Louisiana thank you for the updates
Slidell/New Orleans, Louisiana here. Very frightening this year!
I'm in Slidell too and I'm so on edge about this year. Bringing back bad memories of Katrina.
Hi, Jonathan! Hope you had a great weekend. Tuning in from Trinidad where it feels like the drought conditions will never end, including a constant wave of Saharan dust. It’s hot, dry, dusty, and lots of wildfires are still popping up on a daily basis. Still erred on the side of caution and got trees trimmed and roof sealed for leaks. While we get spared the brunt of hurricane season activity, strong tropical waves and the ITCZ does quite a number on us. Looking forward to your upcoming videos. Have a great day!
Appreciate that! Hope you can get some relief soon! - Jonathan
Oh My Jonathan - I waited a day before I watched this video cuz I felt like, due to the title, it wasn't the best news - 😭😱😭. Yesterday in Lake Charles, LA, we had a Tornado Warning w/ 70 mph winds - it was awful - and then w/ the upcoming Hurricane Season predictions... my anxiety is just too much w/ bad weather but thanks so much for keeping it real. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 for everyone. 🤗❤🤗
Ugh. I hope everything is ok from those storms. - Jonathan
In SW Florida we need lots of rain.
I’m with you in central Florida! Dry as a bone! - Jonathan
@@just_weather not just Florida New Orleans and Texes need a lot of rain
@@King-gx1uvlooks like TX is getting more than it’s share of storms.
@@michellebatzel5809 Y’all need some rains but nothing to extreme cause we starting to see extreme severe thunderstorms with damaging winds thats 80miles and hour that’s not good.
Ummmm, leave Texas out for now. In DFW, we have had weeks of severe thunderstorms. Around here, we've had 75-85mph straight line winds last week. 2- 3 systems come through oer day. A regular storm is bad enough! Everywhere is flooding!
St. Croix here, I guess I'll be praying for Saharan dust
Need that to hang on all year! - Jonathan
@@just_weather I just replaced this roof, bought a Maria damaged house, if this blows off I'll put a full concrete roof on
Love St. Croix❤
Recently started trimming trees and we're about to get some guys for our roof, not the news id like to hear. Love from Lake county FL
Same! I love lake county! I’m in Orlando area. You should watch News 6 if you don’t already! - Jonathan
Thank you for the information! I RESIDE in the western GOM in the Texas Mexico border, we haven’t had a direct hit since Hanna of 2020, these are alarming signals, but alas don’t be scared be prepared !
You said it! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Thanks for including Bermuda in the commentary.
Absolutely!! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan
Thank you for your service and your dedication to the community ❤
With the crazy new tornado patterns, I was thinking the hurricane season would be worse. I was surprised last year wasn't worse. Great breakdown!
Florida is one bad hurricane season from descending into insurance implosion.
You’re not kidding. It’s terrible here. - Jonathan
Already imploded people can’t afford their insurance and mortgage payments. Several insurance pulled out of Florida several years ago. It’s not just Florida. Insurance companies charge everyone for issues in other states. Not just the state you reside.
Melbourne, Florida checking in
Hope you are well!! I’m in Orlando! - Jonathan
The trends keep taking a darker path and I’m not liking the parallel of past hurricane seasons things aren’t looking good at all, All i can say is prepare for the worst and hope for the best and keep your attention on the tropics at all times ❤ from Seminole County stay safe folks
Subscribed! You explain it in a way that’s so easy to understand
Really appreciate that! - welcome to the team! - Jonathan
Very nervous about upcoming hurricane season. Everyone should be.
thank you - great breakdown
Much love from Nova Scotia! Still early in the season this year but it's always nice to be prepared in advance! We still have trees down in our farm's woodland from Fiona.
Thanks for tuning in. Ugh sorry to hear that. Fiona was rough. - Jonathan
@@just_weather when is it going to feel like winter in Dallas again?
@user-rv1ot1ch9x Probably right around the time when we’re dying of old age.
Great insight, this pattern reminds me of the 2017 Hurricane season. As a first responder, these patterns are very useful.
Almighty God uses storms to punish purged and take away our greed of materialistic garba!
The cool water is caused by the uptake of heat by methane hydrates, which are replete in the area. Their current uptake was triggered by warming spring temperatures, but with summer coming they will dissociate in the later part of the summer.
Was it a La Niña pattern in 2017 with Hurricane Harvey?? He was a beast.
Myrtle Beach sc
thank you very much for the awesomely informative vid I am wondering...do you have any forecast models for the next 4 months that simulates cloud cover and circulation?
Can’t predict the exact cloud cover out that far…but there are some longer range models to predict moisture in the atmosphere where could develop. - Jonathan
This video is helping... Let us know to be prepared....😮
I'm Sweeny Texas, perfectly situated between both loans that had the most damage 5/16/24 ( Houston & Baytown, Tx)
This is getting crazy!!
It's called universal upheaval as God pulls back His Grace from a Godless world!
Mobile Alabama here
Welcome! - Jonathan
I wonder if they will be spread out from June through October or if the bad ones will be a string of hellish storms. Last year was supposed to be somewhat severe and there was nothing alarming or severe at least in Charleston.
Been having lots of rain& thunderstorms in the Florida panhandle!
You guys can’t catch a break. Hope everything is ok after the nasty weather. - Jonathan
Stuart FL here. 😱
Welcome! - Jonathan
How is the prediction of a wetter than normal African hurricane formation zone reconciled with prediction of Saharan dust?
Dust typically backs off once we get into August. - Jonathan
How does that cold pool affect high pressure, ridging over that cold pool thus either shunting east or kicking west? Oh... you mentioned that!
NOAA has just raised the Threat level up to 6 on the Hurricane Warning Scale. I’ve never heard that before in my lifetime.
There’s no such thing as that so someone is spreading false information. - Jonathan
I understand ppl wanna say "Well meteorologist said that last season, or seasons prior." But there are years that stick out like a sore thumb. Where that cold pool is setting up will basically be a zone where the storms will ride the outer area, and develop along that area also. And the way it looks, depressions won't have the sheer, won't have anything that may hinder development. And it looks like a straight shot into Florida, the southeast coast, and the Gulf of Mexico. And even if these systems that develop don't become monster cat 4's or 5's, they will produce massive amounts of rain. And if we have, let's say one, two, or three systems in a row? Imagine having a train of tropical systems hitting one area such as Florida. Just like a train of thunderstorms producing flooding, life threatening rainfall. A few tropical systems hitting an area like Florida and the Gulf coast region, just like a training of thunderstorms. I mean, it would be catastrophic.
Sure, it happens. Look at 1999 hurricane Dennis then Floyd the eastern part of North Carolina was floating away.
As for me in VA beach I was having a ball driving through the lakes I mean roads.
@@dfinlen Yeah, I thought I seen a "Go Tarheels" bumper sticker on a vehicle floating away from a news camera as I watched the coverage during those two storms lol.
looking at landfalls for 2010 and 2011 the east coast and northern coast are in for a bumpy ride - after charlie and ian and wilma , (we ) sw fl. deserve a break all be safe
We do need a break! - Jonathan
Today at work (I teach high schoolers) we were in last hour when the storm dumped lots of rain and hail! I 've never heard hail that loud (and I'm almost 40) and I told my students to stay calm....but some were scared and wondered aloud if it was global warming...I assured them sadly it probably was....fortunately my truck fared well!
Wow glad the truck was ok! - Jonathan
Especially if it was a gmt800 496 BIG BLOCK CHEVY@@just_weather
Houston?
It was NOT global warming. Stop lying to children.
Are you in Florida? Can’t you get fired for saying climate change is real?
Cold water increases air pressure that blocks the low system in smaller area rather than allows the rain to spread. So same amount of rain will fall on smaller territory. So somewhere it won’t rain at all where somewhere else it will rain too much.
Clearwater beach Fl looking pretty good❤️
Hope so! - Jonathan
I wonder how This will impact the North American Monsoon season in Arizona and the entire Southwest this upcoming summer.
Hi from Fort Myers!! I got introduced to hurricanes with Ian, not a fan.
Wow what a way to start. Hope everything was ok. - Jonathan
IM SCARED AS IM HAVING A TORNADO WARNING AND NOW A HURRICANE SEASON THAT IS ACTIVE
WHYYYY
Be having a lot of hurricane party's prayers everyone
Thank You.
You’re welcome! - Jonathan
From Bermuda 🇧🇲
Welcome! - Jonathan
i am going to
miami and usa the frist time in my life at the end of the september. because of all the la nina and hurrican theme i am not really relexed knowing to travel there. as someone from switzerland i dont have a any knowladge about hows a hurrican and the evavcuation going down. do i have panic about my holidays plans now? thanks for your great and interessting content.
Don't sweat it. Not a big deal.
Louisiana here. We had some good ones in 2020
You’d have time to fly home instead of evacuate if you were in danger
You will be okay, but just stay weather aware in the lead up
A Bermuda / Atlantic high steering all the storms west? Nooooooo!
Let’s hope it breaks down. - Jonathan
Caribbean heading for heatwave, i will provide the link when i get it
1988 was Gilbert, One of the biggest Storms ever. Good for Panama maybe lake Gutan will fill back up.
Am very worried because we are in pr and we are in the way .don't like this session coming .
No, from Texas.
Agree! - Jonathan
Thanks much,you're doing a fantastic job,but nobody knows what the season will bring,no two seasons are the same,model means nothing,could or maybe,don't direct hurricanes,weather changes daily.
You’re right about that! - Jonathan
Watching from Antigua 🇦🇬
Watching from Clermont, FL near Orlando. It looks like Florida has a high likelihood of tropical storms this season.
Love Clermont! I’m in the Orlando area in west Orange County. You should watch news 6 if you don’t already! Thanks for finding us! - Jonathan
Dude! It went from cold to hot in like, 2 hours over here at Texas!
Kinda like human nature lukewarm to God indifferent ice towards Jesus we reap what we sow!
We will break a records here in Florida most cities hitting 100+ degrees F this week
The unintentional fearmongering has become somewhat of a fad this season. Just because it may be a hyperactive season, it doesn't mean it will be hyperactive for you. Most storms stay out to sea or avoid the US altogether. Everyone take a breath, just have an evac plan and keep an eye on storm development. But now is not the time to panic. Nothing is even happening yet. Nothing may even happen for you. Just relax. 😂
Just weather i have a question
When we will have a subtropical storm/hurricane category?
Im just 2 hurricanes away from 20 total , bring it on !
That’s impressive! - Jonathan
Hi Jonathan. What category are you predicting for the majority of potential florida storms?
That's impossible to predict although the hurricane season is predicted to be very active which means several strong hurricanes are likely.
^cries in Houstonian ^
This season could be more destructive than 2017.
Is this affecting the strength of the Gulf Srream??
This isn’t. - Jonathan
Good to know. Thanks for sharing! 🙊
Miami onboard
Welcome! - Jonathan
Even the cold spot is barely below normal
Well as long as we have Saharan Air Layers traveling across the Atlantic, hurricanes shouldn't be too much of a problem...
Not the case at all. Dust doesn’t completely shut everything down. Plus it typically goes away for the peak of hurricane season. - Jonathan
It’s been stirring from storms
We haven't had a hurricane in a few years...
Can we go back to once every 10 years having a hurricane hit Florida
Like the Phlyers jab
Haha thanks! - Jonathan
Will this lead to droughts in the Northeast?
Making PH XC proud! I'm in the panhandle!
DUDE! Suprak! How are you buddy?? That’s awesome you’re still in Florida!
@@just_weather doing great! I expect less hurricanes now!
Are any hurricanes going to hit Connecticut
It is too early to predict that.
When would be the safest time to travel to Savannah GA? We were planning a trip for this fall
Just be prepared to cancel. September is peak. What he prepared is not a forecast but more of a feeling.
Where did the cold water come from?
Damn didn't mention GA at all 😂
You don’t want to be mentioned in this video 😆- Jonathan
I don't see any significant trend in your sst anomoly or the april sst. 5 lines over a land quadrant does not equate to statistical significance.
What am i missing?
That’s only five years. Five years and five lines is actually significant. - Jonathan
@@just_weathersouth Florida has 5 lines, se TX check, parts of Cuba check, I don't get it. Maybe I need to see it compared to an off year.
A previous video shows the El Niño to La Niña flip.
It’s not saying that those are going to get hit it’s to show where the activity could be. Caribbean looks busy. And so does the Gulf. Last year those two were pretty quiet.
So if we are going to be accurate, its "average temperatures" not "normal" temperatures. The temperatures cited are based on comparison to seasonal averages, not what is normal. I guess when people say"normal", they are stating what has been generally experienced in the satellite era. But use of the term "normal" as describing sea surface temperatures is incorrect.
❤❤❤
Checking in from Long Island NY ❤
Just keep your liberal butt out of Texas!😂
The cold water anomaly is connected with ice melt from Greenland.
This anomaly isn’t but the one that appears in the North Atlantic can be traced to that. - Jonathan
Florida. We’re due for a big season. Hope not though.
But when the hell is the rain gonna happen!!
Storming 2 days now in LA
Where at? - Jonathan
Hillsborough County! Riverview
West Central Louisiana
Vernon Parish
Welcome! - Jonathan
last time i looked . Thunderstorms develop because of warm air from the ocean . It then cools after becoming rain and cools the ocean water. where is the problem here? convection creates cooling!
What? - Jonathan
God help us.
what about in guayama pr 😢😮😮
Need us a cat 5 in south east Florida to drop home prices
Still recovering from cat 5 Ian plz...no
I thought I saw something different going on.
Solar cycle 25 is a predictable cycle.
It’s contributing to the weather changes, along with our own poisonous behavior.
😑
It does contribute but not as much as these factors. - Jonathan
Yessssss