MINI-LESSON 2: Fat Tails, a Very, Very Introductory Presentation.

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 25 гру 2024
  • What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory.
    See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
    researchers.on...

КОМЕНТАРІ • 235

  • @victordelegrego3748
    @victordelegrego3748 3 роки тому +221

    In university I learned only to remove "outliers". What I learned later is that sometimes the outlier is all that matters.

    • @dx5soundlabs939
      @dx5soundlabs939 3 роки тому +5

      brilliant

    • @Jad001998
      @Jad001998 2 роки тому +3

      Great way to summarize it

    • @BrokenRecord-i7q
      @BrokenRecord-i7q 2 роки тому +1

      well said!

    • @Johnsmith46392
      @Johnsmith46392 2 роки тому

      Learned the same thing. Real life isn’t like that though.

    • @ko0302
      @ko0302 Рік тому

      Depends. It works great for the problems without a fat tail.

  • @ezzatalkadi8295
    @ezzatalkadi8295 3 роки тому +248

    Tutored by Nassim Taleb himself..you gotta love the internet!!

  • @bernardofn
    @bernardofn 3 роки тому +70

    He "hates" Gaussians but he draw them so quickly and precisely 😆😮✅

  • @CharlesCherryWatercolors
    @CharlesCherryWatercolors 3 роки тому +33

    The clarity of the NYC sewer system the day after Thanksgiving. I laughed out loud.

  • @animationed.5203
    @animationed.5203 3 роки тому +21

    These introductory lessons are sorta like a dream come true. I'm uber-glad to know that sir Taleb is looking out for the needs of us readers who lack a proper understanding of the complexities of probability. I remember first starting off with Taleb's work with a curious interest to know what a Black Swan was, ending up reading the entire Incerto collection. Truth be told, I couldn't understand many of his teachings. But I understood the spirit of it all, his adamance... his pissedoffness, which in turn, convinced me to know more. I have a lot more to know and I'm sure that these lessons, shared by the hero himself, are going to ease out my learning process.

  • @kenji_ignacio
    @kenji_ignacio 3 роки тому +37

    Thank you Nassim, for all your work.

  • @siddharthsawant3155
    @siddharthsawant3155 3 роки тому +28

    Yesss more Nassim Talebs technical presentations.

  • @defaultdefault812
    @defaultdefault812 3 роки тому +55

    Gold. Keep going. Please, just empty my mind of statistics and let me start again with clarity.

  • @nasenach
    @nasenach 3 роки тому +13

    Very nice introduction. Wish you an excellent whatever, weekend, too!

  • @craigh2222
    @craigh2222 3 роки тому +5

    This guy is INCREDIBLE. I keep hearing about his book I need to read it. This is the second video I watched, now I'm starting to understand what "standard deviation" really means (and why it's not always that useful). He makes it so crystal clear.

  • @CristobalRuiz
    @CristobalRuiz 3 роки тому +2

    This is the most practical and clear explanation I have ever heard of a thick/fat tail. Thank you!

  • @lucaterzio9347
    @lucaterzio9347 3 роки тому +2

    How come I've found out about this channel just now, what a treasure!

  • @jackglore4043
    @jackglore4043 3 роки тому +3

    nassim am from aleppo syria, stumbling on your books "saved my life" !

  • @jasonparser3054
    @jasonparser3054 3 роки тому +63

    Chalk boards are deep Lindy.

    • @asmacarthur
      @asmacarthur 3 роки тому +2

      Results over presentation.
      Taleb.

  • @galt67
    @galt67 3 роки тому +1

    Thank YOU for posting these 'basic' videos! It's SINCERELY appreciated and very educational.

  • @nicholascolletta1777
    @nicholascolletta1777 3 роки тому +4

    Learning more useful information from your videos than my finance/econ degree and CFA has provided me. Please, keep going!!

  • @CarolCorado
    @CarolCorado 3 роки тому +12

    Taleb, that was great! Thanks for making your knowledge closer to people who are not technical, in an intuitively way of understanding, so we don't fall into domain dependence. ;) As a teacher, your video made me remember the good old times I didn't wear black shirts to go to work ! :D

  • @dutt_arka
    @dutt_arka 3 роки тому

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the best teacher,I never had. He's the reason I decided to switch from engineering to business and management.
    It's a privilege to learn from him and his books,and mark my word-Dr. Taleb is going to be the most quoted Philosopher of the 21st century.

  • @JohnSmith-rr3qn
    @JohnSmith-rr3qn 3 роки тому +7

    Back at it again with the over the shoulders sweater!

  • @Deb.L.
    @Deb.L. 3 роки тому +6

    4:51 - "The professionals who made these mistakes, what they share in common, is that their mind has a clarity of a New York sewer the day after thanksgiving, so you can imagine the clarity of mind of the professors, so they don't get it, they have so much junk in their head, that they don't get the essential, that if you accept the fat tail... then the regression... the fat tail is not informative." The sarcasm, ha

    • @moneytron4143
      @moneytron4143 3 роки тому +1

      Thank you for transcript this part ro me, im not english native.

    • @docoftheworld
      @docoftheworld 3 роки тому

      haha i was thinking the same thing!!!!

    • @docoftheworld
      @docoftheworld 3 роки тому

      funny! we have identical interests based on your youtube subscriptions :D

  • @JaminSilbaugh
    @JaminSilbaugh 3 роки тому +2

    I'm really enjoying these presentations. I can't wait to see how they progress.

  • @jakabpilaszanovich5406
    @jakabpilaszanovich5406 3 роки тому +2

    "Thank you very much and have an excellent whatever" :) Thanks for the introductory videos! Great content!

  • @aburaziel
    @aburaziel 3 роки тому +47

    Taleb himself is the embodiment of the fat tail of living wisdom on this planet:)

  • @jamesmarsh4047
    @jamesmarsh4047 2 роки тому

    Excellent. I tell this to everyone who is interested in tail hedging with options to expect the markets to be quieter than you think. Don't be Afraid to sell butterflies

  • @KzLollapalooza
    @KzLollapalooza 3 роки тому +2

    Nassim, Thank you for starting the channel.

  • @one23abc
    @one23abc 3 роки тому +1

    Thank you. Really enjoying the short video format.

  • @cezarg1148
    @cezarg1148 3 роки тому +1

    Taleb is so wise - he is a Mathematician, a Historian, a Philosopher and above all he makes all the wise connections between these domains!. I am a Canadian- Romanian and I was surprised to see the historical connections Taleb made about the history of the Ottoman Empire and its influence in the Eastern Europe and Middle East... He is a "rara avis" - a rare bird in Latin - otherwise a super rare extraordinary thinker who is willing to share knowledge with us for free. Some comments I red were representing a lack of understanding of what Great Thinker of our Times is...

  • @adlos6168
    @adlos6168 3 роки тому +3

    Looking forward for the rest of the series. شكراً

  • @andrewellis7656
    @andrewellis7656 2 роки тому

    Yea Nissan - just stumbled on this series of lectures - thank you. Very much fun. I have your set of books of course. Keep up the excellent work.

  • @chanakaranasinghe9292
    @chanakaranasinghe9292 3 роки тому

    Your intellect is only matched by your sweater collection good sir.

  • @JM-ci9bm
    @JM-ci9bm 3 роки тому +1

    Thank you for producing this series.

  • @kainoaroy
    @kainoaroy 3 роки тому +1

    These are absolutely wonderful. So very thankful to be taught by you sir.

  • @Impedancenetwork
    @Impedancenetwork 3 роки тому +1

    Wow what a coincidence. I just got his book today and here I am watching him talk about it. The internet is so dam cool!

  • @Seleno_phile
    @Seleno_phile 3 роки тому +1

    شكرا جزيلا . ننتظر المزيد في مفاهيم الاحصاء والاحتمالات!

  • @Gilamang
    @Gilamang 3 роки тому +1

    This perspective is so interesting. Please keep making these videos!

  • @bobklapetzky4678
    @bobklapetzky4678 3 роки тому +1

    Wonderful! Looking forward to this series! Have: three Antifragiles( to share with friends) PaperBack Incerto Set, Hardback Incerto Set, Skin In The Game, Dynamic Hedging, and Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, All next to my Mandelbrots! Cheers!

  • @investwithvincent6329
    @investwithvincent6329 3 роки тому +1

    Thanks for sharing this simple explanation of and the importance of fat tails. Now I am concerned. Specifically, I'm concerned to know when I'm dealing with a fat tail scenario because I need to know that some rules or concepts are inapplicable. Very interesting.

  • @kappen6449
    @kappen6449 3 роки тому +1

    Really glad that you’re having this series!

  • @markymark6229
    @markymark6229 3 роки тому +28

    I get so warm and fuzzy when he refers to us as friends

    • @generalshepherd457
      @generalshepherd457 Рік тому

      I also got warm and fuzzy when he said, have an excellent whatever

  • @_mayankr
    @_mayankr 3 роки тому

    Thank you for the series!
    Will be patiently waiting for more episodes!

  • @Andres186000
    @Andres186000 3 роки тому +2

    It’s easier to remember that “fat tails” imply that remote events from the mean happen less often if you keep in mind the fact that “lepto” means light in Greek, from there you can remember that the tails are more lightly sprinkled with data points (even if they are further from the mean than a normally distribution would suggest)

  • @HelloWorld-li8nw
    @HelloWorld-li8nw 3 роки тому

    Hey Nassim, thank you for offering your wisdom and knowledge to the world. I look forward to the content

  • @giovannileopoldorozza1680
    @giovannileopoldorozza1680 3 роки тому +3

    Awesome begining, very didactic.

  • @karimb.
    @karimb. 3 роки тому +11

    Bonjour Professeur Nassim Taleb ! Thank you very much for this introduction. Could you make a short video (not too technical) about how to measure the dependence between X and Y if X and Y are fat tails ? (given that standard regression is not valid in this case) Thank you very much in advance!

  • @Partha76
    @Partha76 3 роки тому

    Thank you for doing this course. I have benefited greatly by following your principles.

  • @guitarmaniaxx
    @guitarmaniaxx 3 роки тому

    Absolutely loving these. So excited about what knowledge is about to be dropped on us.

  • @drarsen33
    @drarsen33 3 роки тому +1

    I think part of confusion is picking the approach for drawing the graph of distribution.
    Lets say we take money in bank account for example. If we divide people in pay brackets and then we draw their frequencies distribution would probably be normal or normal like and in such case
    fat tail would be more cases of extreme or very high earners. But if we for the example show not only number of people in bracket but also sum of money in their accounts, then you can say goodbye to normal distribution and few outliers would
    bend distribution heavily in one direction and we would get what mr. Taleb is talking about.

  • @RJYoungling
    @RJYoungling 3 роки тому +1

    NNT will singlehandedly create a new class of statisticians. I love his "if you know" remarks. It's so common for people to arrogantly claim "I know" while their behavior maps to the complete opposite. If you "know" but do the opposite, you merely intellectually know. But that knowledge hasn't become a part of you.

  • @ashishjain871
    @ashishjain871 3 роки тому +2

    Thanks for the videos. It will be nice if the camera can be looking down or same as eye level instead of looking up.

  • @catlover4132
    @catlover4132 3 роки тому +1

    Love these. Please make more.

  • @Justin-ph6rx
    @Justin-ph6rx 3 роки тому +2

    Thank u Taleb.. practicing quant at bank and would like to translate this to my work

  • @cesartalves
    @cesartalves 3 роки тому

    The clarity of a New York sewer
    Damn I'm adding this to my repertoire

  • @timthompson468
    @timthompson468 3 роки тому

    Wow. Thanks. I just got you Incerto collection after seeing your discussion with Stephen Wolfram. I’m just starting Fooled by Randomness, and I like it so far. This will be a good supplement.

  • @sajjshahrabi
    @sajjshahrabi 3 роки тому +4

    "clarity of a New York sewer after thanksgiving" NNT

  • @Vittalev
    @Vittalev 3 роки тому

    Thank you for the quick, but valuable class.

  • @AKhan-oz9hw
    @AKhan-oz9hw 3 роки тому

    Looking forward to the next lesson

  • @antoinecomte
    @antoinecomte 3 роки тому +1

    Thanks a lot. Very clear and useful information

  • @jaundice27
    @jaundice27 3 роки тому +1

    good video. did not know about that distinction between regular and fat tailed distributions

  • @dimitrivancamp1013
    @dimitrivancamp1013 3 роки тому

    Thanks Nassim for doing this, this is legendary !

  • @saralapsley9501
    @saralapsley9501 3 роки тому

    The best one he's made.

  • @joseantoniogarciaortiz4161
    @joseantoniogarciaortiz4161 3 роки тому

    Great! I want to improve my knowledge about this topic. Thanks Nassim!

  • @birenpatel7652
    @birenpatel7652 3 роки тому

    Thank you for this series Nassim!

  • @hsujack8808
    @hsujack8808 3 роки тому

    Wow~ Thank you for your introductory series.

  • @colinmanko7002
    @colinmanko7002 Рік тому

    WRT LLMs you may be interested in the concept of "model collapse", where models that are trained on synthetic data (that other LLMs create) start to avoid the statistical properties of the tails.

  • @LeonardoGPN
    @LeonardoGPN 3 роки тому +1

    Genius video, I discussed this recently, people argued that high IQs are more commom than you would think in a normal distribution because the normal distribution actually had a fat tail. This is a cyclical logic phallacy, you assume that intelligence is normally distributed in order to measure it with a test, therefore you can't use the measurement made on that premise to conclude that this distribution is not normal, because even if intelligence is not, the distribution of the test results would be normal. A non normal IQ distribution only means bad standardization. And if you assume fat tail you can't keep using standard deviation the way you use in normal distributions, you would need a new mathematical approacha.

  • @luisemiliogonzalezberbel2520
    @luisemiliogonzalezberbel2520 3 роки тому +1

    Very informative, first time I could fully understand the idea XD

  • @christopherpimentel347
    @christopherpimentel347 3 роки тому

    The best! Thank you for this one.

  • @philippsmirnoff
    @philippsmirnoff 3 роки тому

    Please continue doing those videos. I was to say this one just after 2 days after the previous

  • @andrescheepers3223
    @andrescheepers3223 3 роки тому +1

    Wouldn't a better term be thin-long tails to describe few observations of gigantic magnitude? Love the clear videos! Thank you

  • @willd4421
    @willd4421 3 роки тому

    This is stuff I wish I could conceptualise before. NNT, more please! 🙏

  • @Franiveliuselmago
    @Franiveliuselmago 3 роки тому

    Thanks for sharing your wisdom professor!

  • @matiasfagiano
    @matiasfagiano 3 роки тому

    Keep them coming Taleb! These are pure gold and extremely enjoyable

  • @benjamindorsey2058
    @benjamindorsey2058 3 роки тому +6

    🤣 I love how he rips on bill gates. “You know... one of the people on your hero list..” hahaha

  • @djw101
    @djw101 3 роки тому +1

    Thanks for the explanation, my understanding of fat-tails is now clearer. It feels like we should call them 'long tails', no?

  • @HippocampusGirl
    @HippocampusGirl 3 роки тому

    Awesome video! I would be interested in how the fat tails on this example relate to the fat tails of the Student t-distribution, and if that can make up for some of the normal distribution’s shortcomings.

    • @peterevans202
      @peterevans202 3 роки тому

      Student t helps improve predictions when sampling Gaussian processes, like human height. Many processes cannot be described by Gaussians, like income. If you didn’t know Gates and Bezos existed your student t estimate of income would be way off unless you happen to get one of those high income people in your sample-a rare event!

  • @Senecamarcus
    @Senecamarcus 3 роки тому

    Man i wish i lived next to NT, I could listen to master all day!

  • @Numi2003
    @Numi2003 3 роки тому

    Thank you Nassim!

  • @lexparsimoniae2107
    @lexparsimoniae2107 3 роки тому +7

    "Their minds have the clarity of a New York sewage after Thanksgiving."
    That made me laugh hard.

    • @craigh2222
      @craigh2222 3 роки тому +1

      Those were most of my professors in college!

    • @lexparsimoniae2107
      @lexparsimoniae2107 3 роки тому

      @@craigh2222 mine too. I did not have a single professor who could teach clearly - meaning they could probably not think clearly either.

    • @programahepintersg3745
      @programahepintersg3745 3 роки тому +1

      that made my day!

  • @behrad9712
    @behrad9712 2 роки тому +1

    He's a genius, because of him I left data science and statistics because they are absurd in prediction of future I was safety Engineer you know... there is no need for predicting future events this idea is insane! I was suspected but didn't go deep in math like him! All we need is more technology protect us and managing our society based on domain knowledge and intuition about that guiding by deterministic science (being antifragile), believe me I was working on industrial accidents in railway I was fighting with people and managers to convince them mathematics of uncertainty (statistics) does work...! I couldn't believe that I'm saying this: they're just playing symbols...

  • @DisfigurmentOfUs
    @DisfigurmentOfUs 2 роки тому

    Thanks a lot, professor!

  • @Healitall
    @Healitall 3 роки тому

    Thanks for doing these.

  • @leonardsorry8427
    @leonardsorry8427 3 роки тому

    Thank you Nassim.

  • @ΝίκοςΓιαννόπουλος-λ5θ

    Hurray for Mr Taleb!

  • @XShollaj
    @XShollaj 3 роки тому

    The man, the legend!

  • @michaela7759
    @michaela7759 3 роки тому

    Thank you Maestro

  • @_next223
    @_next223 Рік тому

    "This was not a black swan... this was a white swan.. and I'm soo irritated in people who think it was a black swan." - My fav quote from Nassim

  • @work4development
    @work4development 3 роки тому

    Thank you for the lesson. If you use the natural log of income, can you do regression?

  • @MrAlb3rtazzo
    @MrAlb3rtazzo 3 роки тому +1

    please publish more videos :)

  • @thewataguy
    @thewataguy 3 роки тому

    Legend!! Thanks for doing this

  • @Elim4ne
    @Elim4ne 3 роки тому +1

    "If you knew it, you wouldn't be writing those papers." :-)

  • @aboyinfinland9230
    @aboyinfinland9230 2 роки тому

    Dear Professor firstly thank you so much for your kind explanation. May I very kindly clear a conundrum that I have ? Here in this video you indicated clearly that as we fatten the tails there will be MORE observations in the intermediate region and LESS in the extreme region. Why is it not vice-versa ?

    • @nntalebproba
      @nntalebproba  2 роки тому +1

      No, more in the center and less in the intermediate region.

    • @aboyinfinland9230
      @aboyinfinland9230 2 роки тому

      @@nntalebproba Noted Professor. Thank you so much for your kind reply Professor Taleb. I always thought of it to be the opposite, so thanks for giving me this important insight. Appreciate it a lot.

  • @AlongWithAdi
    @AlongWithAdi 3 роки тому

    3:10 to 3:20 Could some one explain what fattening the tail means with an example?

  • @missoss
    @missoss 3 роки тому

    Bro please keep doing these.

  • @sillyfarmerbilly8872
    @sillyfarmerbilly8872 3 роки тому +1

    I love that at the end he tells statistical professors to go get real jobs 😂

  • @gordonf4723
    @gordonf4723 3 роки тому +1

    "Horizontally-Gifted tails"

  • @_N0_0ne
    @_N0_0ne 2 роки тому

    Thank you kindly ✍️

  • @emileriksen2481
    @emileriksen2481 3 роки тому

    What can you do instead of regression to compensate? Anyone?

  • @samdeamer4535
    @samdeamer4535 3 роки тому

    Thank you NNT!

  • @homepc1519
    @homepc1519 3 роки тому

    why are you giving a free download link to your book though??

  • @danielsalsedo8546
    @danielsalsedo8546 3 роки тому

    Thank you for this.