These introductory lessons are sorta like a dream come true. I'm uber-glad to know that sir Taleb is looking out for the needs of us readers who lack a proper understanding of the complexities of probability. I remember first starting off with Taleb's work with a curious interest to know what a Black Swan was, ending up reading the entire Incerto collection. Truth be told, I couldn't understand many of his teachings. But I understood the spirit of it all, his adamance... his pissedoffness, which in turn, convinced me to know more. I have a lot more to know and I'm sure that these lessons, shared by the hero himself, are going to ease out my learning process.
This guy is INCREDIBLE. I keep hearing about his book I need to read it. This is the second video I watched, now I'm starting to understand what "standard deviation" really means (and why it's not always that useful). He makes it so crystal clear.
Taleb, that was great! Thanks for making your knowledge closer to people who are not technical, in an intuitively way of understanding, so we don't fall into domain dependence. ;) As a teacher, your video made me remember the good old times I didn't wear black shirts to go to work ! :D
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the best teacher,I never had. He's the reason I decided to switch from engineering to business and management. It's a privilege to learn from him and his books,and mark my word-Dr. Taleb is going to be the most quoted Philosopher of the 21st century.
4:51 - "The professionals who made these mistakes, what they share in common, is that their mind has a clarity of a New York sewer the day after thanksgiving, so you can imagine the clarity of mind of the professors, so they don't get it, they have so much junk in their head, that they don't get the essential, that if you accept the fat tail... then the regression... the fat tail is not informative." The sarcasm, ha
Excellent. I tell this to everyone who is interested in tail hedging with options to expect the markets to be quieter than you think. Don't be Afraid to sell butterflies
Taleb is so wise - he is a Mathematician, a Historian, a Philosopher and above all he makes all the wise connections between these domains!. I am a Canadian- Romanian and I was surprised to see the historical connections Taleb made about the history of the Ottoman Empire and its influence in the Eastern Europe and Middle East... He is a "rara avis" - a rare bird in Latin - otherwise a super rare extraordinary thinker who is willing to share knowledge with us for free. Some comments I red were representing a lack of understanding of what Great Thinker of our Times is...
Wonderful! Looking forward to this series! Have: three Antifragiles( to share with friends) PaperBack Incerto Set, Hardback Incerto Set, Skin In The Game, Dynamic Hedging, and Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, All next to my Mandelbrots! Cheers!
Thanks for sharing this simple explanation of and the importance of fat tails. Now I am concerned. Specifically, I'm concerned to know when I'm dealing with a fat tail scenario because I need to know that some rules or concepts are inapplicable. Very interesting.
It’s easier to remember that “fat tails” imply that remote events from the mean happen less often if you keep in mind the fact that “lepto” means light in Greek, from there you can remember that the tails are more lightly sprinkled with data points (even if they are further from the mean than a normally distribution would suggest)
Bonjour Professeur Nassim Taleb ! Thank you very much for this introduction. Could you make a short video (not too technical) about how to measure the dependence between X and Y if X and Y are fat tails ? (given that standard regression is not valid in this case) Thank you very much in advance!
I think part of confusion is picking the approach for drawing the graph of distribution. Lets say we take money in bank account for example. If we divide people in pay brackets and then we draw their frequencies distribution would probably be normal or normal like and in such case fat tail would be more cases of extreme or very high earners. But if we for the example show not only number of people in bracket but also sum of money in their accounts, then you can say goodbye to normal distribution and few outliers would bend distribution heavily in one direction and we would get what mr. Taleb is talking about.
NNT will singlehandedly create a new class of statisticians. I love his "if you know" remarks. It's so common for people to arrogantly claim "I know" while their behavior maps to the complete opposite. If you "know" but do the opposite, you merely intellectually know. But that knowledge hasn't become a part of you.
Wow. Thanks. I just got you Incerto collection after seeing your discussion with Stephen Wolfram. I’m just starting Fooled by Randomness, and I like it so far. This will be a good supplement.
WRT LLMs you may be interested in the concept of "model collapse", where models that are trained on synthetic data (that other LLMs create) start to avoid the statistical properties of the tails.
Genius video, I discussed this recently, people argued that high IQs are more commom than you would think in a normal distribution because the normal distribution actually had a fat tail. This is a cyclical logic phallacy, you assume that intelligence is normally distributed in order to measure it with a test, therefore you can't use the measurement made on that premise to conclude that this distribution is not normal, because even if intelligence is not, the distribution of the test results would be normal. A non normal IQ distribution only means bad standardization. And if you assume fat tail you can't keep using standard deviation the way you use in normal distributions, you would need a new mathematical approacha.
Awesome video! I would be interested in how the fat tails on this example relate to the fat tails of the Student t-distribution, and if that can make up for some of the normal distribution’s shortcomings.
Student t helps improve predictions when sampling Gaussian processes, like human height. Many processes cannot be described by Gaussians, like income. If you didn’t know Gates and Bezos existed your student t estimate of income would be way off unless you happen to get one of those high income people in your sample-a rare event!
He's a genius, because of him I left data science and statistics because they are absurd in prediction of future I was safety Engineer you know... there is no need for predicting future events this idea is insane! I was suspected but didn't go deep in math like him! All we need is more technology protect us and managing our society based on domain knowledge and intuition about that guiding by deterministic science (being antifragile), believe me I was working on industrial accidents in railway I was fighting with people and managers to convince them mathematics of uncertainty (statistics) does work...! I couldn't believe that I'm saying this: they're just playing symbols...
Dear Professor firstly thank you so much for your kind explanation. May I very kindly clear a conundrum that I have ? Here in this video you indicated clearly that as we fatten the tails there will be MORE observations in the intermediate region and LESS in the extreme region. Why is it not vice-versa ?
@@nntalebproba Noted Professor. Thank you so much for your kind reply Professor Taleb. I always thought of it to be the opposite, so thanks for giving me this important insight. Appreciate it a lot.
In university I learned only to remove "outliers". What I learned later is that sometimes the outlier is all that matters.
brilliant
Great way to summarize it
well said!
Learned the same thing. Real life isn’t like that though.
Depends. It works great for the problems without a fat tail.
Tutored by Nassim Taleb himself..you gotta love the internet!!
yad ana gebt el gShock
@@JohnWick-xd5zu 💃💃
I want to contact nissam taleb for investment plz provide me his contact
He "hates" Gaussians but he draw them so quickly and precisely 😆😮✅
The clarity of the NYC sewer system the day after Thanksgiving. I laughed out loud.
These introductory lessons are sorta like a dream come true. I'm uber-glad to know that sir Taleb is looking out for the needs of us readers who lack a proper understanding of the complexities of probability. I remember first starting off with Taleb's work with a curious interest to know what a Black Swan was, ending up reading the entire Incerto collection. Truth be told, I couldn't understand many of his teachings. But I understood the spirit of it all, his adamance... his pissedoffness, which in turn, convinced me to know more. I have a lot more to know and I'm sure that these lessons, shared by the hero himself, are going to ease out my learning process.
Thank you Nassim, for all your work.
Yesss more Nassim Talebs technical presentations.
Gold. Keep going. Please, just empty my mind of statistics and let me start again with clarity.
Very nice introduction. Wish you an excellent whatever, weekend, too!
This guy is INCREDIBLE. I keep hearing about his book I need to read it. This is the second video I watched, now I'm starting to understand what "standard deviation" really means (and why it's not always that useful). He makes it so crystal clear.
This is the most practical and clear explanation I have ever heard of a thick/fat tail. Thank you!
How come I've found out about this channel just now, what a treasure!
nassim am from aleppo syria, stumbling on your books "saved my life" !
Chalk boards are deep Lindy.
Results over presentation.
Taleb.
Thank YOU for posting these 'basic' videos! It's SINCERELY appreciated and very educational.
Learning more useful information from your videos than my finance/econ degree and CFA has provided me. Please, keep going!!
Taleb, that was great! Thanks for making your knowledge closer to people who are not technical, in an intuitively way of understanding, so we don't fall into domain dependence. ;) As a teacher, your video made me remember the good old times I didn't wear black shirts to go to work ! :D
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the best teacher,I never had. He's the reason I decided to switch from engineering to business and management.
It's a privilege to learn from him and his books,and mark my word-Dr. Taleb is going to be the most quoted Philosopher of the 21st century.
Back at it again with the over the shoulders sweater!
4:51 - "The professionals who made these mistakes, what they share in common, is that their mind has a clarity of a New York sewer the day after thanksgiving, so you can imagine the clarity of mind of the professors, so they don't get it, they have so much junk in their head, that they don't get the essential, that if you accept the fat tail... then the regression... the fat tail is not informative." The sarcasm, ha
Thank you for transcript this part ro me, im not english native.
haha i was thinking the same thing!!!!
funny! we have identical interests based on your youtube subscriptions :D
I'm really enjoying these presentations. I can't wait to see how they progress.
"Thank you very much and have an excellent whatever" :) Thanks for the introductory videos! Great content!
Taleb himself is the embodiment of the fat tail of living wisdom on this planet:)
Absolutely, Taleb never fails to impress.
Excellent. I tell this to everyone who is interested in tail hedging with options to expect the markets to be quieter than you think. Don't be Afraid to sell butterflies
Nassim, Thank you for starting the channel.
Thank you. Really enjoying the short video format.
Taleb is so wise - he is a Mathematician, a Historian, a Philosopher and above all he makes all the wise connections between these domains!. I am a Canadian- Romanian and I was surprised to see the historical connections Taleb made about the history of the Ottoman Empire and its influence in the Eastern Europe and Middle East... He is a "rara avis" - a rare bird in Latin - otherwise a super rare extraordinary thinker who is willing to share knowledge with us for free. Some comments I red were representing a lack of understanding of what Great Thinker of our Times is...
Looking forward for the rest of the series. شكراً
Yea Nissan - just stumbled on this series of lectures - thank you. Very much fun. I have your set of books of course. Keep up the excellent work.
Your intellect is only matched by your sweater collection good sir.
Thank you for producing this series.
These are absolutely wonderful. So very thankful to be taught by you sir.
Wow what a coincidence. I just got his book today and here I am watching him talk about it. The internet is so dam cool!
شكرا جزيلا . ننتظر المزيد في مفاهيم الاحصاء والاحتمالات!
This perspective is so interesting. Please keep making these videos!
Wonderful! Looking forward to this series! Have: three Antifragiles( to share with friends) PaperBack Incerto Set, Hardback Incerto Set, Skin In The Game, Dynamic Hedging, and Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, All next to my Mandelbrots! Cheers!
Thanks for sharing this simple explanation of and the importance of fat tails. Now I am concerned. Specifically, I'm concerned to know when I'm dealing with a fat tail scenario because I need to know that some rules or concepts are inapplicable. Very interesting.
Really glad that you’re having this series!
I get so warm and fuzzy when he refers to us as friends
I also got warm and fuzzy when he said, have an excellent whatever
Thank you for the series!
Will be patiently waiting for more episodes!
It’s easier to remember that “fat tails” imply that remote events from the mean happen less often if you keep in mind the fact that “lepto” means light in Greek, from there you can remember that the tails are more lightly sprinkled with data points (even if they are further from the mean than a normally distribution would suggest)
Hey Nassim, thank you for offering your wisdom and knowledge to the world. I look forward to the content
Awesome begining, very didactic.
Bonjour Professeur Nassim Taleb ! Thank you very much for this introduction. Could you make a short video (not too technical) about how to measure the dependence between X and Y if X and Y are fat tails ? (given that standard regression is not valid in this case) Thank you very much in advance!
Coming.
Thank you for doing this course. I have benefited greatly by following your principles.
Absolutely loving these. So excited about what knowledge is about to be dropped on us.
I think part of confusion is picking the approach for drawing the graph of distribution.
Lets say we take money in bank account for example. If we divide people in pay brackets and then we draw their frequencies distribution would probably be normal or normal like and in such case
fat tail would be more cases of extreme or very high earners. But if we for the example show not only number of people in bracket but also sum of money in their accounts, then you can say goodbye to normal distribution and few outliers would
bend distribution heavily in one direction and we would get what mr. Taleb is talking about.
NNT will singlehandedly create a new class of statisticians. I love his "if you know" remarks. It's so common for people to arrogantly claim "I know" while their behavior maps to the complete opposite. If you "know" but do the opposite, you merely intellectually know. But that knowledge hasn't become a part of you.
Thanks for the videos. It will be nice if the camera can be looking down or same as eye level instead of looking up.
Love these. Please make more.
At your service
Thank u Taleb.. practicing quant at bank and would like to translate this to my work
The clarity of a New York sewer
Damn I'm adding this to my repertoire
Wow. Thanks. I just got you Incerto collection after seeing your discussion with Stephen Wolfram. I’m just starting Fooled by Randomness, and I like it so far. This will be a good supplement.
"clarity of a New York sewer after thanksgiving" NNT
Thank you for the quick, but valuable class.
Looking forward to the next lesson
Thanks a lot. Very clear and useful information
good video. did not know about that distinction between regular and fat tailed distributions
Thanks Nassim for doing this, this is legendary !
The best one he's made.
Great! I want to improve my knowledge about this topic. Thanks Nassim!
Thank you for this series Nassim!
Wow~ Thank you for your introductory series.
WRT LLMs you may be interested in the concept of "model collapse", where models that are trained on synthetic data (that other LLMs create) start to avoid the statistical properties of the tails.
Genius video, I discussed this recently, people argued that high IQs are more commom than you would think in a normal distribution because the normal distribution actually had a fat tail. This is a cyclical logic phallacy, you assume that intelligence is normally distributed in order to measure it with a test, therefore you can't use the measurement made on that premise to conclude that this distribution is not normal, because even if intelligence is not, the distribution of the test results would be normal. A non normal IQ distribution only means bad standardization. And if you assume fat tail you can't keep using standard deviation the way you use in normal distributions, you would need a new mathematical approacha.
Very informative, first time I could fully understand the idea XD
The best! Thank you for this one.
Please continue doing those videos. I was to say this one just after 2 days after the previous
Wouldn't a better term be thin-long tails to describe few observations of gigantic magnitude? Love the clear videos! Thank you
Yeah, I think he has them mixed up
This is stuff I wish I could conceptualise before. NNT, more please! 🙏
Thanks for sharing your wisdom professor!
Keep them coming Taleb! These are pure gold and extremely enjoyable
🤣 I love how he rips on bill gates. “You know... one of the people on your hero list..” hahaha
Thanks for the explanation, my understanding of fat-tails is now clearer. It feels like we should call them 'long tails', no?
Awesome video! I would be interested in how the fat tails on this example relate to the fat tails of the Student t-distribution, and if that can make up for some of the normal distribution’s shortcomings.
Student t helps improve predictions when sampling Gaussian processes, like human height. Many processes cannot be described by Gaussians, like income. If you didn’t know Gates and Bezos existed your student t estimate of income would be way off unless you happen to get one of those high income people in your sample-a rare event!
Man i wish i lived next to NT, I could listen to master all day!
Thank you Nassim!
"Their minds have the clarity of a New York sewage after Thanksgiving."
That made me laugh hard.
Those were most of my professors in college!
@@craigh2222 mine too. I did not have a single professor who could teach clearly - meaning they could probably not think clearly either.
that made my day!
He's a genius, because of him I left data science and statistics because they are absurd in prediction of future I was safety Engineer you know... there is no need for predicting future events this idea is insane! I was suspected but didn't go deep in math like him! All we need is more technology protect us and managing our society based on domain knowledge and intuition about that guiding by deterministic science (being antifragile), believe me I was working on industrial accidents in railway I was fighting with people and managers to convince them mathematics of uncertainty (statistics) does work...! I couldn't believe that I'm saying this: they're just playing symbols...
Thanks a lot, professor!
Thanks for doing these.
Thank you Nassim.
Hurray for Mr Taleb!
The man, the legend!
Thank you Maestro
"This was not a black swan... this was a white swan.. and I'm soo irritated in people who think it was a black swan." - My fav quote from Nassim
Thank you for the lesson. If you use the natural log of income, can you do regression?
No, because it is not Lognormal.
please publish more videos :)
Legend!! Thanks for doing this
"If you knew it, you wouldn't be writing those papers." :-)
Dear Professor firstly thank you so much for your kind explanation. May I very kindly clear a conundrum that I have ? Here in this video you indicated clearly that as we fatten the tails there will be MORE observations in the intermediate region and LESS in the extreme region. Why is it not vice-versa ?
No, more in the center and less in the intermediate region.
@@nntalebproba Noted Professor. Thank you so much for your kind reply Professor Taleb. I always thought of it to be the opposite, so thanks for giving me this important insight. Appreciate it a lot.
3:10 to 3:20 Could some one explain what fattening the tail means with an example?
Bro please keep doing these.
I love that at the end he tells statistical professors to go get real jobs 😂
"Horizontally-Gifted tails"
Thank you kindly ✍️
What can you do instead of regression to compensate? Anyone?
Thank you NNT!
why are you giving a free download link to your book though??
Thank you for this.