銀行要求65 % pre sales有人認購才會放款，而instalment 10% 10% 10%再加銀行貸款，根本今日都唔足夠完成項目。 R S means 同Altus 都計high rise residential hard cost and soft cost 已經去到過千蚊加幣一尺，property developers 跟本唔會平賣，太平價銀行亦唔會release 個單位比小業主。
Not totally agree Look at 10 to 15 years old condo. Most of them are one and one + den unit. The only difference is their room size are bigger. This is a tradition issue. Condo build for new family. Family with more children will move to townhouse or house. I do agree product mismatch. Toronto need more 2 or 3 bedroom condo for family with smaller room. The reason is that house and townhouse price is too expensive and high transportation expense ( most area need car) Pre-construction sell badly is because of federal governments restriction on Foreign buyer purchasing. Many new students and work permit holder want to buy home to live, but they dont allow even buy pre-construction. Another reason is the high interest rate. Future Looks 1. Once the restriction move away or those people got their PR 2. interest rate going down 3. lack of new building build for future supply = Another housing crisis may come out.
@@wlaw8803 Then unfortunately the price just needs to come down more for the area you mentioned. There will always be a price point where buyers will come in. Also, seems that what you mentioned is only happening at downtown, or may be just with a specific building or development? I don't see prices (at least the 2nd hand condo price) moving a lot in surrounding areas such as North York or Etobicoke or York Region. The percentages that price needs to come down to induce demand will be different in different areas. But I think if, on average, they go down by 30%, it would be sufficient. Note that the statistics in July 2024 shows that condo price in GTA was only down 2.2% YOY on average. It's a long way from 30%. So that's the number I am referring to. Downtown Toronto has some specific problems too. If people are working from home mostly now and don't need to go there for work, why would they want to live there? At least some of the original demands would have moved outside of the area. That was a major shift from 2018/19 when the developments started. Also, many newer condos in downtown Toronto are packed with AirBbnbs. That puts off real users.
You info is partially correct, however, there are few KEYS issues have been "untalked". I have been doing real estate as an agent since 1992. I know why the condo market has been crushed.
you are right, who would spend a million to buy a 2-bedroom condo and pay over a thousand dollar in fees? even if I like to downsize, but these numbers are scaring me off
Condo has big supply but townhouse, duplex and houses are not affect much as supply is big much in Vancouver and Toronto market, only in condo market .
@@vset33 exactly. Vancouver is bordered by the US, the Sea, and the mountains. Plus, we are on prime agricultural land. So no new land can be created, keeping the land value high with constant demand for real estate in the city for Canadians, migrants, and international students
分析其實唔駛提用家，根本加拿大樓市唔係實際加拿大市民用家嘅需求支持。現在真正加拿大大部份普通市民係冇能力買樓。呢十幾年地產界夾埋外來人及他們外來嘅財庫，再帶咗世界各地極端資本主義嘅地產遊戲規則來加拿大炒起個市。而加拿大本來係偏向社會主義嘅國家，人工唔會好高，稅重，經濟活動唔積極，但有各樣福利保障。呢啲音樂椅遊戲又點會長玩長有呢？！
UK is the same
你的片愈拍愈好，分析精簡到肉、長度適中，謝謝分享!
值得一讚，好全面的分析，的確供求已失衡多年，今日咁多爛尾，而一個項目發展期要8 年，已預計到5年後供求會更失控，到時沒樓又要搵租盤的真係不敢想像。
我估到時會出現香港式湯房。
說不通🧐如由頭到尾要6-7年，移民/難民在3-4年前才開始，時間不對，所以根本上是官商勾結合作劏水魚，貪婪導致超額建設，再有地產經紀為賺超天價傭金，無良操作，炒家入市，導致樓價數倍增長，脫離現實的樓價市民才付擔不起，這是全世界的地產現象，絕不是疫情/成本上漲...原因，不是不想做水魚，但身上只有幾両肉，唔夠大鱷攝牙罅
世道好的時候那些地產中介意氣風發, 有一小部分甚至弄虛作假哄高屋價樓價
十幾二十年前，我經常去加拿大旅遊，如多倫多同温哥華，發覺到處起咗唔少Condo, 而且賣得唔平，全新嘅condo幾乎與獨立屋同價，比起鄰近美國(除紐約市), 美國condo根本冇咁貴，美加人比較喜歡住獨立屋，因為地方大而且開party唔會騷擾到其他上下左右鄰居，parking又多，我就覺得加拿大condo一啲都唔值咁貴。
非常好的分析！多謝晒！💯👍
Trudeau 吹水成日話Housing Crisis，叫人買多d起多d。其實呃人, 根本係加拿大經濟不景想靠樓市帶動經濟
of course, buyer can't afford to buy, investor exit. therefore housing crisis.
沒有賣唔出嘅樓，只有賣唔出嘅價😂
你今次分柝得很real true and I work for Developers and Rental Asset Management this is exactly what it is now!
而家builders 唔起condo,七至10年後condo supply 非常之少，都是如果demand多, condo 價錢會非常之高
分析實際詳細！
明年係其中一個關鍵。利息，税收，必須重度減低。最好換埋個政府，加拿大先有救。
多謝分析
近五年，那些所謂工簽，學生簽證，90% 都是印度人，他們本身在自己國家也不是屬於有錢人仕，哂氣！
他们十几个人住在一间房子里。
銀行要求65 % pre sales有人認購才會放款，而instalment 10% 10% 10%再加銀行貸款，根本今日都唔足夠完成項目。 R S means 同Altus 都計high rise residential hard cost and soft cost 已經去到過千蚊加幣一尺，property developers 跟本唔會平賣，太平價銀行亦唔會release 個單位比小業主。
發展商不要起加國納米樓，要起800呎以上面積，單身一族和無孩夫婦會受歡迎！ 起碼有生活質數。
解釋得好清楚, 其實作為發展商面對風險與不確定性都很大. 這個死局唔知點解? 比以前我在加拿大時還差另外加拿大有這麼多年輕人移入又唔好好利用導致失業率很高而治安問題也很嚴重.真系唔知點.
真正有需要嘅用家唔係唔買，而係無錢買
我住北美亞省，沒有看全部，本埠建很多新排屋，太多新移民。但新、舊居民入息低，如何有錢付首期？人工，木材，各種建築材料漲價，房屋一定漲價！水、電、暖氣、管理費，伙食 ，所餘無幾！交稅、交通費！
破產嘅都係啲中小型builders, 就算爛尾，買家啲錢都可以攞返。而家冇人買樓花（即係冇需求），發展商咪唔推/唔起樓囉，好正常吖。買得栢文多係投資者好合理，有自住需求嘅都會揀現樓買，唔會等4/5/6/7年至去住。
七師傳話過起2026左右打後，世界其他地方都會出現香港樓市下跌嘅情形。睇嚟好似𠳔會言中！九運似乎大大不利樓市。
Not totally agree
Look at 10 to 15 years old condo. Most of them are one and one + den unit. The only difference is their room size are bigger. This is a tradition issue. Condo build for new family. Family with more children will move to townhouse or house. I do agree product mismatch. Toronto need more 2 or 3 bedroom condo for family with smaller room. The reason is that house and townhouse price is too expensive and high transportation expense ( most area need car)
Pre-construction sell badly is because of federal governments restriction on Foreign buyer purchasing. Many new students and work permit holder want to buy home to live, but they dont allow even buy pre-construction. Another reason is the high interest rate.
Future Looks
1. Once the restriction move away or those people got their PR
2. interest rate going down
3. lack of new building build for future supply
=
Another housing crisis may come out.
if we didn't have the "Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act", things would be going worse
經濟差，收入不穩定。 一人單位的用家多是年輕人，工作經驗少，怕供樓，唔敢入市。兩人單位的就唔同，通常是結了婚，年紀大些，有多些工作經驗，對未來收入有信心，所以夠胆供樓。發展商計錯數，以為樓價高，纳米樓銀碼少，會好賣。事實郤不是。
好多地產商自己都對賭埋，有市有價嘅時候唔賣多啲，想等到現樓時賣貴啲想賺盡一分一毫，自作孽，怪誰！
Price離地
那麼說，一房condo 就似香港的龍床盤，只是加國的condo 比較有人性，最少，可合適一兩個人居住。
加拿大政府做野一向慢~~ 過程冗長, 蚊訓.
Good analysis 👍
投資者買晒搞到想上樓自住嗰啲後生仔買唔起
Good analysis. Thanks
要有pr才可買屋，諸多限制，冇人投資。
係借唔到錢啫 唔係唔畀買
三藩市的condo一房單位管理費閒閒地每月$700-800！
空置率又高，隨時要大額集資維護！
$800/ month condo association fee is average, not expensive , it’s fair
跌到30萬合理水平、就可以售出
這邊的情況跟香港一樣，因為現在來的大多數移民只是找平租及工作，已不會買的。另外一類是很有錢，決定買$3m 以下的單戶房屋，因為有investment potential can be rezoning !
Only very few properties can be able to rezone successfully. Many property developers go to second or even third tier private lenders for financing.
價一定要跌夠才可復蘇
Good show. as always.
高息問題，唔係無人要住/買
問題是太貴。加拿大樓市升咗十五年，政府收的稅，經紀佣金高，使買賣價格一定提高好多。跌番3 0 ％啦。
Vancouver大把屋夜晚烏燈黑火，班友吾肯賣平D，屋價不停上升
由 1997 開始升都未跌過，中間只有短暫停一停，然後年年升。
一葉知秋!
只是序!
大暴雨随後 !!
The carrying cost is pretty high and rising.
樓市肯定會大調整😢
Yes, real estate market usual life cycle is talking about 10 years.
戶型上的 demand supply mismatch 固然係問題，但其實不難解決，到最後任何 demand supply mismatch 都可由價格的調整來解決。問題係而家即使賣唔出或cash flow negative，投資者仍未放棄希望，仍未大規模減價賣樓，只要有大量 investor 頂唔住大幅減價，那些「唔適合人住」的一房單位仍會有足夠用家上來吸收。當租用緊一房戶的租客發現自己終於買得起，又買平過租時，自然就會即使係太細的戶型都買住先。我都幾肯定，developer 或 investors 如果而家單位數字創新高的 listing 全數即減 20-30% 落來，明天都可以即時不論戶型地段全部賣光。
只有穷港灿会说这种说话，陆客口袋满是资金，何来跌之有
Now downtown Toronto new condo assignment price has dropped 30% from peak. Many are just $1000 psf but these units still unsold
@@wlaw8803 Then unfortunately the price just needs to come down more for the area you mentioned. There will always be a price point where buyers will come in. Also, seems that what you mentioned is only happening at downtown, or may be just with a specific building or development? I don't see prices (at least the 2nd hand condo price) moving a lot in surrounding areas such as North York or Etobicoke or York Region. The percentages that price needs to come down to induce demand will be different in different areas. But I think if, on average, they go down by 30%, it would be sufficient. Note that the statistics in July 2024 shows that condo price in GTA was only down 2.2% YOY on average. It's a long way from 30%. So that's the number I am referring to. Downtown Toronto has some specific problems too. If people are working from home mostly now and don't need to go there for work, why would they want to live there? At least some of the original demands would have moved outside of the area. That was a major shift from 2018/19 when the developments started. Also, many newer condos in downtown Toronto are packed with AirBbnbs. That puts off real users.
一句講曬，前境不佳通缩。
thanks
仲有一樣嘢就係 過去十幾年 加拿大樓市實在聖德厲害 好多新移民 以為會一路升落去 所以槓桿買咗好多 而家利息高 好難捱
You info is partially correct, however, there are few KEYS issues have been "untalked". I have been doing real estate as an agent since 1992. I know why the condo market has been crushed.
Can you tell us more about condo crush reasons? Thx.
原因之一，經紀費用不合理地高
睇下边個省？BC 同 安省应該预咗🤔🤔 升至 "癫價‘’ ! 呢個時候入市，只有一個原因 ～ 手痕兼身痕 😅😅
加拿大應該減小大6货入口降低贸易逆差，以维護國家經濟。
加拿大对中国出口175.2亿美元，下降17.8%，占加拿大出口总额的3.9%，降低0.8个百分点；加拿大自中国进口565.3亿美元，下降3.0%，占加拿大进口总额的12.5%，降低0.2个百分点。 加拿大与中国的贸易逆差390.1亿美元，增长5.6%。
邊個想過來印度。。。啊，對唔住，喺加拿大移民
政府支助就可以了🥰 唔好只識講🙂↕️
GOOD
香港有板你睇，最後結果有幾慘
香港是人為天價和加拿大不同。
成也美元 敗也美元 + 加拿大已經係美國哪第51州，加拿大 改名 艱難大
加拿大咁多地，只要規劃好，免費送地給用家（不可出售）自己起，不可出租，不收稅，死後無後人就收回，咁房屋就回歸住房屬性而不是商品屬性，社區先有發展條件，
加拿大政府已經窮到燶！！仲話攞快地出嚟唔收稅、絕對冇可能發生因為城市規劃、道路建設都要錢點可能唔收錢
仲有如果呢個計劃 ！推上社會議題；對於已經買咗地嘅發展商你又如何交代
😂叫政府破產
好多本地加拿大唔會用咁多錢買condo，即使係2 bedroom，佢地都唔覺得condo係“家”。以前condo賣得平還會考慮當上車盤，宜家呢啲價錢好少人會考慮買。最新嘅政策話要減少移民，咁啲積壓左嘅condo唔知可以點搞。
you are right, who would spend a million to buy a 2-bedroom condo and pay over a thousand dollar in fees? even if I like to downsize, but these numbers are scaring me off
Thanks for sharing
英文字发音太多广州音, 例如： so far (读成： 苏花), condo (读成： con 到), moment (读成： 麾民).
你咪扮英語專家，聽得明白就可以。 you are fucking moron
之前D人以為多咗移民，學生及難民，房屋须求必大增，可惜大量留學生都係印度人，佢地可以十多二十人住一間屋，你以為佢哋會花大錢住apartment?
樓主分析了1房 condo的問題，但可以講下3房condo 和townhouse, house 的問題嗎國？還是它們影響不大呢？唔該
Condo has big supply but townhouse, duplex and houses are not affect much as supply is big much in Vancouver and Toronto market, only in condo market .
@@FamilyCheung-kc1pw但我見而家d屋，不論town house, detach, 往往都貼近或過百萬，加埋乜稅物稅，經濟不景，房價真係頂得住？
Different market. Condo is mosltly for singles and student. Townhouse and house for families always limited supply.
當第一塊骨牌倒下，下一塊倒下是遲早的事，覆巢之下，豈有完卵，水位下降，所有浮在上面的不管生物及死物也得同時下降，股災來臨時，如果健康的股票都要跌，唔係股神邊有機會執平貨？😂
@@ychar001
鬼叫聯邦政府俾咗咁多人，入到嚟啲人都要買屋，都要居住貴都冇辦法
人工材料在加拿大每个省不一样吗？很多政府新公寓三十万买两房，十几万买二手，温哥华接近一百万。
Condo 最主要喺management fee
中國要向加拿大學習，起樓太快太多，結果全部業主朴直
華人摶命買屋，累到很多人冇屋住瞓街，應該pk了
但看仕嘉堡的出售大厦數目不多和價錢仍在高位！
对，对。👍👍👍
士嘉堡樓齢比較大＇而且面積比新起的大，所以樓價企穩。
Condo rent already risen to over 3000 a month 2 years ago
I rent out my apartment for 2800/mo in burnaby
I rent out my two bedrooms condo 3000.- in Langley for 1000 sq.ft..
跌價都冇人買，睇吓香港就知道
全世界都一樣 發展商務錢 走佬爛尾 所以都唔好你笑我我笑你😂
不對 2 bedroom 800-900百幾呎嘅超半年都賣唔到 還要是天車站旁邊的 高桂林附近 到處都有60萬-70 萬的 . House 一百多萬的 超過一年賣不到 10至15年樓齡的 我朋友是地產經紀 他告訴我的 租務市場也不是很好 900呎單位兩房的 高級公寓 說可以租三千左右 又是騙人的 地產經紀說 現在2800都難租出 給正常有職業有負擔得起的租客 來租樓的一般都是學生 還要印度學生 租一層樓10個人來住 或者難民或新移民 沒有固定收入的 業主也不會租他們 結果他們哪些人租不到就任何價錢都會租 只要業主冒這個險租給他們. 那些才會有可能租到3000. 但就算是租出3000 業主也是要倒貼的 管理費地稅差餉全部都是業主出的 還要按揭供款 每個月起碼要到貼1000
絕對同意。我是租務經理，今年的potential tenant 常常講價，又多多要求。一般都係學生冇工做！
@@lisawong-pr1ej關唔關 location 事，我的burnaby 10 年新仍然有mkt，只不過Brentwood 附近實在太貴。
唔使咁複雜，一字咁淺，房價太貴
同意
Not only condo the whole property market is falling the world! It is a cycle
No, only the Condo market is overpriced. In Vancouver, only one problem.. there's no more vacuum land.
@@jamesf5062 無計。市政府同省政府收好重稅同埋development fees, 搞到d樓貴晒
@@vset33 exactly. Vancouver is bordered by the US, the Sea, and the mountains. Plus, we are on prime agricultural land. So no new land can be created, keeping the land value high with constant demand for real estate in the city for Canadians, migrants, and international students
買condo投資，最好都係買小兩房
跌到可負擔範圍，用家就會買
same situation in hong kong, lots of micro flats around 200 sq.ft.could not find any buyer
@@chungtatshum6581的確，樓市下跌，啲納米盤最先現形，就似domino effect，之後火燒連環船
咁多爛尾樓？七。八年後程况怎样？起咁多Condo？细單位？真正用家是不會入市的。
咁唔同時候都有人組織新家庭嘅，一兩房單位其實任何時間都有需求。
Condo 多數是兩睡房的。因為5百呎應該可以起兩睡房
You must be from Hong Kong. Here is Canada
一房加書房六百五十呎,兩房一千呎
❤
並非價格，而是投資房產是否有錢賺
因為美國佬攬炒
Loan (读成： 窿).
還好是加政府也有收留港人，應該在租住方面也有一定支持，看看英國房價正上升，多了一班支援民主自由離港人。
看了你很多集，覺得都是有墨水的人。有一個問題真係想問問…. 唔係好覺你有介紹自己。其實你的背景是什麼的
袁博士，以前喺加拿大中央銀行做過高職！
He is an economist and researcher.
請教加拿大樓市爛尾現象，是加拿大連減兩次息的現象嗎？另外加拿大會否已經複制在美國？最後會否影響銀行？而出現金融風暴！
簡單複雜化。 好明顯有情緒病。
全世界起樓都係同一流程。為什麼你又特別多爤尾？
英國起樓唔知流程係唔係一樣
冇資格學人高地價嘅國家
食咗撻訂唔講嘅？多啲獨立思考
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Friends ....you guy too young.....comdo will rise at least 30% after 3 yeas due no supply....no agrue .....is fact...end
講嘢太多修飾 拖到冇心機聽
無知最無言
can you explain?
Video, 不要读成 "wee" deo
如果收租可以Cover供樓，咁就個個人都去業主啦。多余！
跌穿50萬就可負擔到拉😤
26年前士嘉堡Tridel 樓花1300呎也要35萬！
新移民九成九都係窮𠃊，邊度有錢買。😂😂😂😂😂😂
依家加拿大大部分在職後生仔/女，鍾意用錢享受咗先，唔肯儲錢，只有一批幸運嘅有父母幫忙置業，更加唔好計有一大批係冇父母幫手嘅，兩班人大多數係又懶又大洗👎🖕，等將來pk至如夢初醒囉🤭🫣😳👎🖕👏！
or the smart kids continue to stay with their parents
看完你的视频后，觉得你说的全是一派胡言，未来年尾美国将会减息，新移民继续增加，他们只会带入资金购买楼房，何跌之有？楼假只有上升是王道
輸咗幾多，介唔介意透露一下？😂
其實佢都講咗，現在發展商爛尾，樓房供應減少，但移民繼續增加，咁七八年後會什麼情況？
@@NoName-oz6hw 🤣
多謝解析
中國要向加拿大學習，起樓太快太多，結果全部業主朴直
Soundbar I Have