Startling Poll Results Leave Everyone Scratching Their Heads
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- Опубліковано 22 чер 2024
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I live in Pennsylvania. I have never been polled. I've been voting for several years. Leave a like if you've never been polled.
Seems like its just you.
@@john670 🤣🤣🤣
@@john670 Wrong!
Aww, someone will poll you one day.
@@WilliamBrowning I'm afraid not. I'm not a desperate elderly person that will answer an unknown number just so I have someone to talk to.
Most of the people answering these polls are still using wall mounted rotary phones.
And people who know what skibidoo toilet means will not answer polls because they got better stuff to do/they work during the day.. and therefore do not get polled.
Polls are done by people who previously held a phone salesman job.. just hitting the quota and cashing the check. If no one checks your work for errors, you can do what you want. No way to check for errors here… the perfect job? Yeah.
I don’t listen to polls anymore… Unless it’s blowout numbers like 10 or more. If polls were real indicators, Hillary would have been elected in 2016. Even Trump had no clue he would win that’s why he was calling it rigged before even a single vote was cast. He didn’t have a victory speech prepared. I am 44 years old and never been polled in my life. I don’t know anyone that’s ever been polled.
Am I the only one constantly getting text messages asking who I am voting for?
@@hizzlemobizzleyes
@@mattrinker2947 Wow I feel so special now.
As a polling nerd from Polisci, I'm not taking polls seriously from this point forward. There are serious problems in sampling due to older more conservative voters being most likely to have a land line and younger more progressive voters being cell phone only and extremely unlikely to answer. The signal to noise ratio is gone to hell and its only going to get worse.
I think you're on the nose there
That and the morbid fact that more republicans died from covid than democrats and they died after the 2020 census means that pollsters are over sampling republicans
I'm not convinced young people are more progressive--definitely not the youth in Europe.
@kevinmichael9482 check out the stats for this in the UK. It's pretty wild. Finding a conservative under my age (late gen X) is not easy.
@@kevinmichael9482 What are you smoking? Conservative youth has to hide their views from their peers to not be ridiculed to hell
Abortion in Kansas was losing in polling and won by 16...republican women are voting one way and polling the other.
The ones voting for abortion were more likely to be doing so secretly, so they would be less willing to engage in a poll. Even if it’s anonymous, it’s still scary to tell a stranger something that your nutty family might disown you for.
If true, that's big
Keep taking the copium pill.
100%, I think this is the "problem" with polling that shows up in actual special elections. People in general are going to lie to a pollster both because they don't like Biden and because they don't go on the record against Trump, even if they are extremely anti-Trump in their heads.
@@florinadrian5174 How is it cope?
Polling seems to be going the way of print newspapers, unable to adapt to technology and reliably wrong in the past 8 years.
Maybe 8 years ago was when you first noticed that polls are crap.
The polling has not been wrong. Pundits for each party constantly fixate on minor deviations and attempt to persuade people that 'their side is winning' while ignoring the aggregate.
Funny how Liberals dismiss simple Math when they are Losing. What a bunch of Losers.
@@yishnir I noticed you didn't respond to the top comment about special elections, in some of those elections democrats won landslide victories after a string of losing polls
@futurestoryteller Hmm. I didn't respond to a different comment entirely that you want to focus on instead while I responded to this one? ;-)
I pay way more attention to the special elections and Dems have been constantly overpreforming for years now. I think that's a good sign.
You should look up what 'split ticket voting' means... seeing as it's how T... lost the previous election... because all the people who wanted to support 'his party overall' DID NOT want to vote 'for him in particular'.
@@yishnir are you going to cry when your orange cult leader loses bigly once again?
It's republican women who are saying one thing and voting the other way in private. Let's be honest, republican women are hostages to the Neanderthals they are married to, voting is private.
Yeah, and you’ll notice that Democrats in general are performing very well in these polls. It’s Biden, personally, who’s massively underperforming in the same places that down ticket is performing extremely well. I don’t doubt that many people will simply not vote for Biden while voting for Democrats down ticket.
@@bicokun I live in a heavy blue neighborhood in Atlanta, usually yards are full of signs for Democrats, you make your donations and get your signs. No signs this year. Maybe it will pick up I don't know. Stacey Abram"s bunch had people out registering voters on every corner, haven't seen any of that either.
Forget the polls - just go out and VOTE!
Radical progressives will have Trump elected 💯 it’s that FAFO moment js crazy times
The polls say your vote doesn't matter this year... What's the benefit of "forgetting the polls"?
Yeah things are terrible and nothing gets better let’s just vote harder
Facts
Gop wants you to think your vote doesn't matter, but the fact is a enormous nationwide voter turnout against trump gop and we save democracy
When it comes to electing a crook, to a geriatric who is showing his age, I'm gonna go for the geriatric every time, especially when they're both geriatrics.
It's really sad the D party chose to run the geriatric again, we had better options in our primary this year
@@katyungodlyExactly. He was already cutting it close last time.
Polls... you may as well be reading tea leaves at this stage.🤣
I love tea! Especially from whole leaves. Cheers!
The thing with polling is that it only 10% of people polled actually respond. They have to poll 10,000 people to get a poll of a 1000. which I find very telling.
Old people
It's certainly not a random sample. Which is the first thing you learn about when taking a statistics course. WTF can you really do with a non-random sample?
@DaemonJax perpetuate fear and mistrust
Spot on .
@DaemonJax for a non-random sample you have to weight the different factors like age, race, and gender. Ultimately I don't trust any polls anymore.
Look at the primary trump only getting 78% of republicans
Okay but those guys aren't voting for Biden, right? They're just not gonna vote.
The problem is, Biden has huge difficulty in creating any kind of enthousiasm but you're kind of stuck with him. I even think he did relatively well given the circumstances but people don't feel it and the "ruling" party tends to get punished for things they can't really change (Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Taiwan, ...). Sucks but turnout is going to be the game. Just have to hope Biden continues to outperform with old people because they do still vote.
Cope ↑
@@MarcillaSmith They are talking about don trump running unopposed, in republican only primaries, and getting around 80% of the vote.
No one else was on the ballet. 20% of republicans wrote in someone else.
Can I say, you are uneducated my dear. Open up your media consumption.
@@MarcillaSmith
Back at ya MAGA cultist.
@@SilortheBladeand compare that to Biden loosing support due to gaza
Considering how bad the polls were in reading the room two years ago, we can probably toss them.
In aggregate the polls were on-target... you're confusing 'actual polls' with 'the constant outlier-fixation of partisan pundits'... try listening to M Moore for a dose of realism.
Funny how Liberals dismiss simple Math when they are Losing. What a bunch of Losers.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The polls said the GOP would take the house and they did.
Just because you deny that ACTUALLY happened, doesn't make the polls wrong. Instead, it makes you a delusional election denier...Like them.
@@adotjon78 The polls said the GOP would have a 40something seat lead & it was 4 seats.
@@WheelhouseMikewhen orange wins by a little bit less than the polls thought..
Will you make excuses then too?
Or will you bring up the popular vote as if it matters?
You can officially refer to anyone still supporting Trump as, "Those who worship evil's might!"
Lmao wut
@@orimoreau3138 Random Green Lantern reference.
You are brainwashed..
Thumbnail Trump looking like a stale marshmallow you just found under your fridge
Thumbnail Biden looking like an unwrapped mummy desperately trying to not scare children
Trump wins cause marshmallow is cuter and more magnetic to people than mummies
@@___Anakin.Skywalker It would be about time Trump won something.
@@___Anakin.Skywalker Never heard of a rapey treasonous marshmallow, but here we are.
@@scottb6124 Trump is the best candidate
@@___Anakin.Skywalker Nah, he isn't even the second best candidate.
Hopefully it's not 2016 all over again. A lackluster candidate. Even though I think Biden has done a lot more good things than he's given credit for, excepting Isr ael policy.
Be sure to remind people that the last time he was in office, Traitor Tot got three Supreme Court picks that will be screwing us all for DECADES.
Centrism is lackluster due to dithering.
Biden has done way more negative than positive.
The fact we talk about if a candidate is lackluster or not shows our politics are complete trash
It isn't the same, Biden is the incumbent, not someone without a record. Incumbency is one of the biggest indicators for winning, more so than charisma.
Where tf are these polls even taken? I dont think I've ever been asked a poll question in my life.
Given the sample sizes they use compared to the overall population your odds of being asked to participate in a poll are extremely low.
Same. Never.
they used to use land line telephones, which, um, yeah.
Polls call landline telephones during work hours on weekdays and hope someone answers. That means polls are heavily skewed towards over representing old out of touch walking cadavers who vote republican because they can't wrap their heads around the fact that they helped build the American nazi party.
I don't think you are taking into account the amount of people who aren't going to DARE say they are voting for Biden on a poll, when they don't know exactly who is asking. MAGA is some scary stuff most of us have experienced in some way shape or form in our every day lives how crazy they are. I know I'm VERY cautious about who I talk to about politics. I have kids and don't feel like making my family a target.
Don't underestimate the number of non-voters who will come out to stop MAGA, as well. Those folks don't get polled. Trump's primary flaw this go around is that he's NOT moving to the centre for the general. You ALWAYS move to the centre in the general!
It's sad & maddening that millions of voters refuse to remember that the felon was worse than worthless during the pandemic.
I feel like I'm going crazy. I wonder if this is how the people in Germany felt about the people that supported Hitler in his rise to power. I SERIOUSLY underestimated the moral bankruptcy and rampant stupidity of this country before the 2016 election.
It's guy-YAY-go, not guh-LAY-ho!
She should know how to pronounce Gallego.
THIS!
She corrected herself at 3:14
Not too long ago, we're to believe that Trump was up by twelve in Nevada.
What do you believe now? Biden is winning in Nevada?
I'll never understand the people in these polls who say "yeah I'm gonna vote for my Democrat senator but I'm still voting for trump"
If we're going to rely on polls, remember that the polls in 2015 said that Trump would lose. I think the polling is even more skewed now than then.
You fundamentally misunderstand polls. Thats ok, most people do. Polls are not a prediction of the future but a statement on the past.
Polling in 2015 is by no means a prediction of what will happen in 2016. It is polling about that people were thinking in 2015.
Polls? When was the last time anyone you know was actually polled?!
They are outdated and out of touch. Consistently failing to predict even the most boring race.
Regardless of the validity of polls, "when was the last time anyone you know what actually polled" is a completely nonsense way to evaluate their validity.
@@user-js4iw9rz2w Are you bootlicking for polls?! Or do you work for "big poll"? LOL Get rekt.
@@zacrl1230 You literally can't be this stupid. Like, can you read at all? I offered no opinion on polls, I criticized your braindead "scientific method" of "oh geez, this isn't something I've personally experienced so it's not happening."
@@zacrl1230 Is your brain ok?
Wow, it's almost as if the dynamic of functional democracy relies purely on, not only a well educated and politically impartial constituency, but elected representation that isn't corporately bought off by collective capitalistic interests?!
Too bad reality can never allow for such consideration or standards of humanitarian consideration.
Someone below asked if anyone here has ever been polled. I've been polled a few times via phone. But once it was a "push poll" where the poster asked if I would be willing to vote for the Democratic candidate if I knew he was a criminal. He wasn't, but she kept asking questions based on the premise that he was with various crimes being alleged. At one point pretty far into the survey, I said, "Hey, wait. This is a push poll!" and she responded, "Gee, ya think???" I reported the incident to everywhere I thought would help, but I never heard anything about now former US Sen. Mark Kirk employing push pollsters. So I doubt anything ever happened about it.
When push comes to shove the high majority of people that vote Dem for senate will vote Dem for POTUS. People are issuing their displeasure in the polls, but that’s different than what they’ll do on Election Day.
From your lips to Picard's ear
Also keep in mind Trump basically never gets over 50% in these polls. So when the polls say he is leading by 6 in Arizona or 2 in Pennsylvania, that is not an accurate reflection of the political will of the state.
You keep condoning neoliberals like Hillary and Joe.
We will never accept them...
We are real leftists and you're just a partisan Democrat.
@@Odinsdayas an Arizonan, I can assure you that IS the accurate political will of our state. Even in Maricopa county which is the only place that politically matters here at all.
@@adotjon78 do you think my overall premise is incorrect? Also, do you think getting abortion on the ballot in AZ, which seems likely, will help Dem turnout?
All of the polls in the last couple years (even just days before elections) have been wildly out of line with actual results and always overstating GOP support.
What is the polling method on the presidential side? Is it calling landline phones? If so, that only reflects the few people who still have land lines. Saying that people aren't happy with their Congress critters isn't the same thing as Presidential polling.
No. That is not how polling is done. The only people who don't look up how modern polling is conducted are the people who want to pretend that the results are somehow not real.
Land lines
The problem with polling is it is now a pay for results not reality business. Buy a result then feed it to the media.
if they just ring numbers at random how do they know if its a landline or cell phone??
@@stackhat8624 Cell phones allow you to block calls from unknown numbers without answering. More people are likely to just block those numbers. Older people with land lines often just pick up the phone and talk to whoever is on the line.
Isn't Emerson generally considered an outlier? I seem to remember them constantly giving us false hope with great Bernie polling numbers that eventually never panned out.
When I get asked to fill out a poll, I ignore it at least 90% of the time. Im thinking the Republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats, but that doesn't necessarily reflect what will happen in November
Polls? Really?
Presidental Elections have consequences. SCOTUS is always on the line, your views on SCOTUS is the problem with our side, lackadaisical thinking
We have Thomas leftover from Bush 🤨
and that was Bush Sr!
Why don’t they show the MoE? From what I can see according to these polls Biden is tied with Trump if the MoE is between the typical 3 to 4.4%. Also this is probably registered voters and again I think it is still too early to take polls seriously. Likely voters and closer to the fall is the best time to check in.
Unfortunately the people who are able to reach the level of President have too much ego to just be one term, no matter how better for the country it would be
Do not believe the polls … VOTE!!!! VOTE BLUE!!!
What I understand you need to have a landline phone to participate in these polls?
i think thats a misconception. Don't they call cellphones but younger people in general just dont answer unknown callers?
I quit caring about polls after 2016.
How are they even finding people under 50 years old to poll? Who answers unknown numbers anymore? Or clicks random text links for that matter?
Gallejo? Or Gallego? 😂😂😂 damn!
It just baffles me to observe the pacing of the justice and legal system that would make a snail 🐌 look speedy in comparison that one cannot finish the legal proceedings for some pretty blatantly clear crimes against one individual when the entire country is at stake.
Who are they sampling on the polling? Seriously. The actual voting never seems close to what polling is
and add 5 more points to that lead due to gerrymandering
Gerrymandering doesn't affect presidential elections. It only affects elections for Representatives
One thing that often gets left out of these analysis are the breakdowns or likely vs marginal voters. When you focus on likely voters who have a far higher propensity to vote, the race gets much narrower.
Thank you
The polls have been wrong in every important election in the last few decades, but complacency is what always kills the democratic party. So keep banging that drum.
goddamn, just imagine if the dems had done what they should have and held a fucking primary. we could have enthusiasm for a candidate people actually WANT. it’s infuriating, especially since i feel like there was a huge (unofficial, informal, but still present) *understanding* that Biden WOULD NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM when he ran the first time.
He said he would only be a 1 term president in the primary multiple times.
@@pranays on that point President Biden is correct.
Who exactly is it in the Democratic party that Democratic party will allow to win the primary that's going to be any better? You could get somebody younger but they aren't going to be any different on policy.
Biden was not going to lose a Primary. Stop pushing this foolishness. It's part of the reason these polls are so off
Emerson is a Republican pollster who had a big red wave in 2022. I wouldn't be too influenced by them.
What would Trump and the GOP say if he wins the presidency, and gets a DEM Congress and Senate? That mess would be hilarious he would certainly say their was no rigging being done LOL
GO VOTE!! Be the difference you want to be in your life. Your future may very well depend on this election.
Do the starving people of Gazza get a vote- I'm kind of repulsed at your white selfish schtick
I wouldn't give so much weight to polls because they are typically pretty far off lately. It's almost like they are being intentionally skewed.
I don’t believe polling calls include cell phones.
I really want to know how they contact people for polling. Nobody I know has ever been polled in my lifetime. Is it mailers? Are they only allowed to contact landlines? As a Minnesotan, i can promise you the sentiment here is not that of a tied poll
It’s well overdue for us to start planning for a post trump win and how to either remove him, mitigate as much of his damage as we can, and to explore extralegal means of dismantling US democracy. At the very least you need representational democracy and compulsory voting like Australia for example. Its a strong mitigating factor
"We've spent months persuading you that you would be evil to vote for Biden, thus helping extinguish enthusiasm for Biden, but now we're worried about the lack of enthusiasm, and now want to (weakly) remind you Trump would be worse. We recognize he doesn't offer a preferable alternative to the Isreal sit or anything else we have convinced you to turn away from Biden about, not to mention so many other grave consequences, so now we're finally worried that Trump might win. We wished on a star for a progressive candidate that ppl could rally behind (since one doesn't exist yet), and we don't know why our wish wasn't magically granted, so that's why it seems like we're backtracking now. We'll keep reminding you how bad Biden is, but ... (whispering) please, vote for him anyways 🤷♂️.
That is a great summary of this channel.
I find them more credible for giving real criticisms of Biden while having the nuance to see that it's important to keep Trump out of office.
If you want uncritical Biden glazing there is a show called "The Morning Joe" on MSNBC. I think it's on 6am-10am weekdays 😊
"We'll keep reminding you how bad Biden is, but ... (whispering) please, vote for him anyways"
You say this facetiously but this is the best possible stance to take in the absolute shitshow reality that we dwell in. And I'd like you to point me to the time they said it'd be evil to vote for Biden.
Well said. They really should just be honest and openly ask for a carry. They should also let us know what state they are voting out of. It means a lot less if you are voting 3rd party out of California or Alabama, compared to let's say Pennsylvania.
At literally no point have they ever said "you would be evil to vote for Biden" you're just making stuff up in your head to get mad at 🤡
Never been polled. I wish they would call me.
Guys, remember: polling was invented by the devil to give you anxiety. Yes, you specifically.
The Devil did not originally intend it to be anxiety though
Imagine ending up with a Dem majority in senate and house and Trump as president lmao
I'm going to hold all reservations on what polling is saying until after the debate this week. I don't think many people are paying much attention to the race, and frankly the polls have been wrong a lot in recent history...
can we just stop over analyzing poll numbers prior to every election? they tell us absolutely nothing! I'll be voting in November to save democracy here in the country that i love and reside, nothing more or less full stop!
It doesn't feel right seeing Matt's face, I'm used to him being a disembodied voice.
A "generic" dem would win but literally no one has any specific suggestions.
I’m in Arizona and I’m independent. I will not vote for Trump 😂
They polling anyone besides retirees with land lines?
Emma's pronunciation of Gallego is hilarious.
It’s pronounced GUY YEAH GO. He’s going to be a pivotal Senator.
Thanks for reminding the audience of your failure to pressure the party during primary time. Still waiting for your acknowledgement and public apology... not holding my breath for it.
Please Knick it off with the bad mouthing of our president
Gallego- “ Guy-yay-GO”
a consequence of shitty education, both in schools and churches
Unfortunately people still believe what they experience.
I'm uneducated but I'm not Conservative. I may not be intelligent but I have some common sense.
Who are they polling 🤔🤔🤷🏾♀️🤷🏾♀️
People who still use landlines or people who will actually answer the phone for strangers or the screen saying survey or whatever. Take that for what you will
Yikes! Minnesota polling is a bit concerning.
Yes it’s called splitting a ticket
Im not pro-biden, but i would much prefer for him to win. AOC put it quite well about Biden being more favorable to organize under.
AI Biden in the thumbnail is nightmare fuel
And real biden puts me directly to sleep.
How the heck is Minnesota close?
Gaza
There's no way Trump's going to win Michigan
Might pay a few more black people too go too church and lie for him
Nope. There's no way.
We didn't do all of the hard work to turn the state blue just to turn around and put the white Christian nationalist MAGA who tried to nullify our votes into the white house.
I don't think it will even be close.
lol prepare to eat those words. Lots of Arabs in Michigan who will be staying home.
You sure? It seems Michiganders don't like genocide.
@@adotjon78But Trump wouldn't have done the same or worse? That's the part I can't understand.
We are all going to vote democrat and he’s not unpopular we are just too busy to answer the damn phone
aggregate polls have been right on the previous elections, problem is the news and partisans from either party will take 1-2 polls and try to read tea leaves
Americans are divided between those who want trump in office 40%, those who want to prevent trump from becoming president again at all cost, and those who want to teach Biden some lesson about Gaza or some sh!t. I think that 40% deserve to rule everyone else, and they will.
It shows years of FOX propaganda works.
My prediction is that Biden will win a second term. You guys are way too in the weeds right now. Status quo will stand.
Hope Biden wins. Congress is important, too. Senate looks tough. Way more dem seats up for election. And silly W Virginis is determined to stat poor as they'll likely vote Repub w "Dem" Manchin retiring! One site projected GOP takn Senate 52-48...ouch! But could have been way worse! That same website projected Dems taking the House from Moses Mike Johnson 219 to 215. I would love control of the House. Dem control of The House would be a life preserver if God forbid, Trump won. He would seriously be blocked from passing bills. And he's be a lame duck Pres. He would focus on getting revenge through Project 2025 garbage in the Esxecutive Branch- DOJ, FBI, etc and trying to reverse climate actions for Big Oil. It would be a tough, split govt slog thru 4 years. Maybe Trump could be forced to go on trial, somehow and go to jail, finally.
270-268 my prediction
The status quo isn't good for a load of people.
If trump wins, we deserve what we get. It will be entertaining if nothing else.
Not a fan of Biden right now, but to be fair, Emerson is always +3 or 4 republican in all thier states compared to the actual results.
Weren't polls extremely odd in 2022 and 2020? Like to the point where people were talking about how done they were with them both times, on both sides? Why are we suddenly imagining they've got the algorithm correct?
*extremely off
I would expect better from Emma than to pronounce Gallego "galleho". That's some Sam bullshit.
She's being influenced by Sam XD
That looks like a crazy ai image of Biden. I hope that’s not real. lol.
Biden got the old man face in the thumbnail
All his faces are old man face
Are these figures correct!
Polls shmolls
I don't think the polls are correct tbh. We saw that democrat win by 20 points when he was down in the polls by 8 or so points.
I get so sick of all this talk about enthusiasm. Maybe if certain media platforms didn't constantly talk about excitement and focus on issues, voters would actually focus on issues rather than the reality show element of politics
Online right wing rage baiting is on full effect unfortunately more so compared to the last 8 years
Gallego is pronounced like “Guy-Yay-Go”. :)
This show is famous for bad pronunciation it's Sam's legacy 😂
@@pranays Haha, that's funny, I jumped the gun anyway. I posted this before getting far ebough into the video to see that Emma corrected herself. :)
Ways to approach this polling:
1. Rejoice, you love Trump!
2. Ignore, because MAYBE these will be significantly inaccurate. This is the best option if you don't care who wins.
3. Work hard to change policies or leaders to improve the polling results. This is the best option if you want Biden to win.
We don't work for Democrats and their billionaire donors.
If Corporate dems want to take control of the party they are responsible for whatever happens.
Dr Harry Litchman is the man of always right predictions !! I trust him more than any early polling!!
Inflation is Biden's biggest problem.
If we didn't flip for Reagan in 84 or trump in 2016 we wont flip in 2024 Minnesota is a blue state
Guy-ay-go. It's pronounced Guy-ay-go. Ruben Gallego! Come on guys. Geez
Basically at this point let's get the House and Senate and as many states legislatures & governorships as possible we can limit the Trump II damage. We can stop his looney Court picks, just like Mitch did to us in 2016.