Up Or Down? Here's Where Home Prices Are Headed From Here | Housing Analyst Ivy Zelman (PT2)
Вставка
- Опубліковано 22 лип 2024
- GET IVY'S LATEST HOUSING MARKET BULLETIN FOR FREE at wealthion.com/ivy
Here in Part 2, housing expert Ivy Zelman shares her outlook on the housing market looking out at the next few years. She predicts today's "seller's market" will cool off, and that buyers who can afford to wait will likely enjoy lower home prices in coming years, especially in today's most-active markets like Phoenix, Austin, Houston, Dallas, Idaho & the Carolinas.
If you haven't yet watched Part 1 of our interview with Ivy Zelman, in which she explains the biggest trends influencing housing prices today, you can do so here: • Will Hedge Funds Ultim...
At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you.
There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: www.wealthion.com/
Subscribe to our UA-cam channel: bit.ly/SubscribeWealthion
Follow Adam on Twitter @menlobear
Follow us on Facebook / wealthion-109680281218040
Visit Ivy's website at zelmanassociates.com
#housing #homeprices #realestate
____________________________________
IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
SCHEDULE A FREE CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: wealthion.com/
Definitely loves IVY ideas and thoughts of the real estate market.. just to share I sold one turned around property in less than 3 days ..
Front lines of the Marines and FIDI are NOT the same.
Different stress, different outcomes of failure.
I would gladly kill everyone in fidi over any of my warriors.
My young Gen-Z colleague at work told me a few weeks ago that his dream was to one day be able to afford a van to live in so he could park it on the street close to the plant where we work. Let me repeat- his dream is to be able to afford a van to live in. A van. When I said why not a house or an apartment? He laughed as if the question was as ridiculous as asking why he didn't want to live on a private island. It was at that point I realized how screwed this new generation truly is. My grandpa worked at the same plant and owned a house, a boat, and 2 cars at the same age as this kid back in the 1950's doing the same job.
long vans! thats really sad and un forgivable. end the fed!
@@marsmotion Yup, banking has slowly but surely extracted all the wealth. When will people wake up to the fractional reserve banking scam? When we're ALL renters?
How old was your grandpa?
Grandpa wasn't finger ph*cking his phone all day and paying a couple of hundred dollars a month for the privilege. Grandpa didn't waste his time or money playing video games he was likely working or in school. Life has alway been tough and by the looks of it Z-Gen is looking to Government as their savior, previous generations knew Government was not going to help. That's why Z-Gen will own nothing and have crappy lives. Good Luck!
@@nightdipper5178 lol yeah gen-z has some issues with their reliance on tech and gov. As a successful hardworking gen-zer, i know it can be done, may just take a few years longer than it used to in previous generations as we all know the US Dollar's purchasing power hasn't increased since the 60's.
We need Ivy back for the 2023 Housing market outlook. WE NEED IVY!!!!! Please!!
Adam, you're a thoughtful interviewer and these questions are very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you for touching on this topic. Keep up the much appreciated work
Adam, would be nice to know when the institutional investors vacate the scene. That will be a warning sign.
After Zillow 7000 home crisis, I'm hearing Blackrock is starting to sell off their home portfolio.
@@A2Kaid Thanks!
I agree. I will wait to buy. If this is like what happened in the last crash, I will be in good shape. When the housing market bottomed out in 2011 silver was at a 30 year high.
Adam, we have a PE debt fund that makes short term construction/development loans. Our primary market is the Florida Panhandle. I want to make a comment to Ivy about our market here along the Florida Panhandle and especially Walton County, Bay County and Okaloosa County. I believe this is one of the hottest housing markets in the US. We are experiencing a large migration from multiple areas of the country. Ivy should check out the counties I mentioned, start with 30A in Walton County. The sweet spot seems to be $5.0M-$12.0M. The amount of cash flowing into this area is astonishing.
I could listen to Ivy all day long.
Yup I regularly do a UA-cam search on her she needs to do a looot more interviews she’s a very unique researcher.
The fed and other central banks are already taxing the people through inflation.
Real inflation is 5% which is huge
GREAT Interview Adam! Ivy is an immense resource!!!
Depends. North Fork of Long Island home prices for example doubled after 9-11...dipped some but never returned to pre 9-11 prices. Doing the same now. Of course if interest rates go up near 10%, then of course prices will drop. Another major factor is how realtors spin the whole thing.
what does she say in the very beginning ? the audio digitalizes
I think an important factor she failed to mention regarding affordability is the property tax reassessments that have hit many or are forthcoming. Agree that there is still plenty of pent up demand but I think the consumer is tapped out since wage growth hasn’t kept up with inflation. In today’s social media world FOMO is real, so I expect people to over pay and over buy for a period of time. A meltup may be on the horizon this spring? Thanks for the videos, really glad I found and subscribed enjoy the content and info!
Buying a 1 million dollar house here in SoCal where property tax is 1.5%. That’s an extra 15k a year u have to pay for prop tax! Jeez louisee
She spot on the other thing is the government has boosted this market up because there’s no alternative but when this real estate market crashes it’s gonna be like an avalanche it’s just going to tumble like dominoes and you might be surprised how far it does fall then you go back to the boom it’s always Florida 2016 2006 everybody was buying 2010 they couldn’t give away
Phenomenal interview.
WHEN HOMES ARE TREATED LIKE STOCKS IT CREATS A LOT OF VOLITILITY
It’s a disgrace. It’s a place with baby cribs and kitchen tables. And then they wonder why America isn’t forming families…
@@AB-fq4mr it's all about to blow........REALLY BIG.....IT'S AAAALLLLL ABOUT TO EXPLODE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a great lady! And Mom 🏆
Thanks a lot for great content.
Thanks Adam following every aspect you have offer I feel blessed everyday time has been on my side for the pass 30 yrs. Without a doubt about learning how to be financially stable build hard equity and financial stability now just relaxing and watching how everything goes from this point on👍
Demand and affordability are in an off balance. Over valued rent is driving small businesses and and even big businesses away as the work force can't afford to live there. So... now you've got the 2 million house that is probably really worth 200 k in an area where you've got an hour drive to get gas.... groceries.... and soon ... coffee.... Good luck selling that. LEMON !!!!.
There's much speculation on Interest Rate increases about 3%, what Probobality is there of 5 or 10.or even 16%? It the late 70s or early 80s I recall paying 14%> Then, our Inflation rates were high. I have 5% Inflation since April on my grocery Reciepts here so I'm feeling a little History Rhyming..TY for the show!
@Kevin SchmidtWidespread Defaults are likely. This is how Monetary and Economic Systems traditionally end. It's like a Forrest full of Deadwood catching fire then rejuvenating. A normal Cyclical Process observed through History. This time is not different.
That which is unsustainable cannot be Sustained. What we don't know is when. What we can be certain of, is that Widespread Defaults shall happen. Adding Zeros to Abstract Systems of Currency associated with Assets eventually causes the Currency and Claims on Property to become meaningless. Then Widespread Defaults happen. It's Normal.
@Kevin Schmidt It's a Global affair. Property Laws will be tested hard. Might go to needing to hold it to own it. We saw a bit of it in 2008. People staying at homes for years without Paying or being Evicted. It's Weirder this time due to greatly increased scale. A wheelbarrow of Cash for a loaf of bread? Who knows? 21 Trillion US Debt. Why not Quadrillion or Quintillion? We're not going to run out of Zeros. I find it all quiet Odd.
Adam and Crew add some sense to it but if you run the Process long enough everything becomes meaningless.
1980, bought our first little house (a fixer-upper) for $53k with a 11.5% VA loan. Without a VA loan, the going rate was 13%. Ten years later (after improvements), we sold the house for 85k (which was average for the neighborhood). Housing prices were relatively stagnant because the interest rates were so high. Salaries weren't going anywhere, either. The housing environment during these past few years has been nutso. It is always good to remember that the pendulum always swings out, and then back.
@@monikao.559 Pendulum swinging is a good way to look at things in my View. With the high Interest Rates back then I was often working a couple side jobs along with a full time job to keep up. I ripped the Roof off the House and put a second Story on it because buying a bigger house was so Expensive. It all seems Nuts now.
A great many are spending way beyond their means. Bankruptcy lawyers should make a killing.
I'm surprised the ending of the eviction moratorium a couple of months ago wasn't brought up as a variable. Will mass-foreclosures hit the rental/homeowner market, or has government assistance made the backlog we were seeing a non-issue?
Good point. We just ran out of time. I'll ask her next time.
Web is so sticky I can’t move, quicksand. Let me take a deep breath, but wait, a dark form moves towards me ? It is moving…yes and it can feel each twitch each movement on the web.
Also left-out prop taxes. the higher the prices soar the higher return to our drunk uncle.
Sometimes folks just have to face the thought of moving to another area where homes are more reasonable. Hint: Try OLD Bullhead City, Arizona. Rents are high, but you can STILL buy a mobile home of your own for only $100,000. That’s right, only one hundred thousand, AND that includes the land approx. 50’x100’. Seriously, you have the Colorado River is walking distance away with nine gambling casinos on the river bank on the other side in Laughlin, Nevada, and 90 miles south of Vegas. There’s plenty of water sports (fishing, jet skies, etc.) and the best Springtime in the nation, IMO.
If 4% halts mobility even further, then wouldn't supply and inventory become worse?
No, because many would sell. Too much supply is in the hands of investors
IF present inflationary policies continue (printing money) home prices will naturally go up. Buying a home thats competitively priced and you're going to live in it is a no brainer to buy. Buying as an investment might be a bit more tricky but nice place to park money and have nice leverage when borrowing at low level and inflation(money printing) running at high levels.
That presumed general income stability for the working class at large. There will come a point soon where interest rates hike and stagflation erodes their ability to make mortgage payments. The thing about bubbles is they always pop.
@@mikhaelhorvath3165 yes that would happen if they hike interest rates meaningfully like 2-4% rise. My opinion is they'll talk tough raise interest rates a symbolic .25-.50 bais points and thats about it. Once you print money like theyve massively done the last 2 years its impossible to stop. Right now money supply's are plummeting so we're setting up for a stock market dive.Once this happens the central banks again will loosen and party starts again.
Everyone is assuming years of inflation. Some are predicting deflation
@@toeachitsown2050 there's been no 'deflation' ( decrease in money supply and credit) for over 100 yrs. No possibility of deflation if present policies continue. I know there's a some smart people predicting this but in my opinion it would be very short term mistake. They'll awash the world with dollars once again at first sign of stock market collapse.
@@anthonytenaglia203 some very good experts are predicting it. My point is that we dont know, yet everyone pretends like they 100% know
I'm not sure I'd consider zip code change requests a valid method for tracking moves. I don't know that I've ever done one. I tell the people and companies that need to know my new address. All the other crap can keep going wherever.
Fantastic
2 houses near us sold recently. One was valued at 270 a year ago, sold for 380. Another was 310 18 months ago, sold for 450. What are buyers thinking?? Both sold the 1st day.
There's a lot of insanity out there these days, and it's not just in housing. People are just plain nuts!
Same here. A reconstructed home in my cul de sac was just sold for $390,000 (2250 sqft)when comparable are in the $320,000 range or less. The buyer bought it remotely from his home in New Hampshire.
Fear
@@johndanser4180 I think remote buyers aren’t doing their due diligence. Here in Atlanta there is a lot of crime and us locals have pretty much kept the prices on par with how safe each zip code is. It’s nuts, high poverty and high crime zip codes are selling the same as safer zip codes it’s so obvious these people that buy aren’t local. I used to be a landlord back when I was young and naive and I would never ever step foot in some of those areas, let alone go through being a landlord there again.
Zekman bulletin says it all "The cautionary consideration is whether this recent surge in agent count is another signal of peak sentiment and activity, as it was last cycle. "
Reventure consulting did a UA-cam on that recently with graphs might wanna check it out
Why would we believe that Opendoor is smarter than Zillow? Zillow is the brand name. Zillow has become a verb.
All the realtors that I have met said that IT IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!
If you can find a time period when realtors haven't said that, please let me know.
MOST REALTORS ARE SCUM.....I HAD A REAL ESTATE LICENSE AT ONE TIME....MY BROKER TOLD ME "YOU'RE TOO GOOD AND HONEST TO BE IN THIS BUSINESS"
You can’t expect them to be fully honest, their goal is to make a sale at any cost.
I’m a real estate broker in Florida and have been in the business 23 years. In my opinion, it is NOT a great time to buy. We are just one black swan event away from a crash. The current mess we are in is not sustainable. Very sad situation, especially for first time buyers.
@@stephaniedanielson9670 Thank's for your honesty......I'll buy after the crash and inflation with my PM holdings...yesit's all about to blow.....watch the Evergrand event in China
Prices are now starting to drop in the frothiest markets. She was a little early, but mostly got it right.
Why would anyone buy a house right now
She’s great!!!
Just wonder the magnitude of how much of home equity has been leveraged to the stock market?
Ivy ❤️
It’s not all the large players it’s Zillow and due to poor business practices. Prices will not go down they are leveling off unless you are in South ie FL/ AL where bidding wars are now starting and prices rising. Everyone will always need a house to live and coming up with down is very difficult, so if you can leverage using banks money to hedge against inflation in a linear market it’s to your advantage.
No skilled labor to carry through their investment
Ivy was awesome. Glad she nipped the "people are fleeing California" bullshit line in the bud. That's been around since the 80s, and it's NEVER been true.
We’ll I see many leaving so it seems pretty real! We have terrible government here that drives people away.
I did. And so did all my family members. But, other folks took our places.
This equity is not a good thing! Homeowners became rich at the expense of others. It’s not ok for a society to allow some to gain wealth and leave others in the dust just for owner a home.
I totally agree with you but isn’t this the definition of capitalism? This society promotes the “American Dream” but by pursuing that “dream”, some will have to be in the bottom to achieve.
@@lokchan9399 this was not created by capitalisms though. The government shut down small business and paid people to stay home. its not fair to intervene like that a let the people get screwed. Also, the system of capitalism is meant to be set up to allow a free market to move. the government stopped the free market and these are the consequences. in a capitalist economy if you "Work Hard" you should be able to succeed. to each given by his contribution which is the theme of capitalism. its not who was lucky enough to buy before the pandemic because of shit government decisions. if i work hard i should be able to afford a home as per capitalism!
15th
Real Estate history in Australia is different to America
Only pay cash or the bank buys the house.
Nice if you have that option. Most people don't. Besides, I would argue that if you can get a cheap mortgage and your LTV (loan to value ratio) is at a comfortable level you can probably put that money to work more intelligently. However, managing risk is always very important and of course I also prefer to stay within safe limits when in comes to my level of debt/leverage.
@@ThorRavnsborg Globalisation: some wealthy overseas buyers are buying sight unseen with cash, particularly from jurisdictions that are not democracies or are in dangerous neighbourhoods.
What a beautiful lady, in all dimensions
She says what you need to know in the first :17 seconds.
Harbinger of sorrow
There has to be a correction ffs.....or everyone will leave,generation x that is....you work to live in a car,no thanks
Saying housing prices will go down is just hopeful thinking as it continues to go up and up and will continue to do so. Its nothing to do with housing its everything to do with the money system and financial instruments. Our money system is awful to the core always has been. Without addressing it inflation will continue and wealth will be drained from people as they need to service ever increasing debt payments private and public. Inflation in housing is actually less than inflation you are seeing elsewhere such as insurance, commodities, healthcare, the Stockmarket, energy prices so it should be obvious this is not a housing issue its an inflation issue relating to the money system itself.
No matter what they do our young generation is screwed yet again by our elders, it's amazing how much they've been kicking down the can for their own selfish butts. If they keep the rates low, we get priced out by inflation even if there is inventory. If they jack up the rates, then no one will move since they'll be stuck in their low interest loans, so there won't even be inventory. Baby boomers, at it again. Screwing kids for their own self-interest, and then they wonder what the heck is wrong with young people nowadays. We waited for them to retire so we can have jobs, we waited for them to get out of the 2009 crisis at the expense of us having to pay for their bailouts, and now we have to wait for them to get out of their mcmansions so we have somewhere to live. Coming to you in the near decade: millenials getting screwed on social security because yet again, baby boomers had to be bailed out first. It's amazing. We work 60, 70 hours a week for all these bad decisions and yet we are somehow being labeled the lazy generation. Sad to say, but there will be a lot of neglected graves in the near term, and rightfully so.
Yeah. Its over. I'm 32 and I live in a 5Mx2M shed and I really can't complain as I can generally afford a holiday once a year and to save something most months. Most of my friends are drowning in debt or are junkies in prison or dead.
@@zoidberg444 I'm sorry to hear that. I am 37 and pretty much decided that there's no way I'll have kids at this point. My health insurance would've been $900 a month (I'm self-employed), and working 6, 7 days a week you just can't have a family. I am still putting in a good fight, but if something doesn't get moving in the next year or two and this market doesn't get back to where it was, I'll just throw in the towel too and buy some tiny condo in cash or something and then work less instead of busting my butt against this rising housing market, taxes, and inflation. At some point, you kinda go - who am I doing this for? So others can sit on their asses and collect government checks and go on vacations on free money? I think a lot of us will just pull a John Galt at some point.
Haha, Ignorant cuckoo thinking!!
@@bobsibert1968 yes you are that!
jmhgg
She must come back regularly…biannually??? Quarterly???
Planning on quarterly
Impressive hypermobile thumbs, has she.
This interview was 6 months ago. It's only gotten worse. It won't change for years in many markets.
Don’t like the 2 part video format
I have much doubt in her analysis.