Forecast Discussion - April 7, 2024 - Multi-Day Southern US Severe Threat + Eclipse Forecast #2
Вставка
- Опубліковано 10 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
An active stretch of severe weather is on tap for the southern US beginning tomorrow (Monday, April 8) through Thursday (April 11) as a strong trough makes its way across the region, acting upon rich Gulf moisture. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) within a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) for tomorrow across southern Oklahoma and much of Texas. Severe storms with an all-hazards threat are expected along and south of a warm front draped across the Red River region tomorrow afternoon, while a separate area of supercells is expected closer to the dryline across northwest Texas, where very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.
A similar area will be under the gun Tuesday, as the SPC has outlined a large Slight Risk (level 2/5) from west-central Texas into Louisiana. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with storms along the dryline, while any storms that form to the east in the open warm sector will yield a tornado threat, although convection is expected to be messy. The threat shifts east into the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday, but model discrepancy prevents any judgments on specifics at this time.
The much-anticipated total solar eclipse is also on tap tomorrow (Monday, April 8) across parts of the US. We'll dive into some updates on the forecast for cloud cover along the totality path and which areas are likely to see good viewing conditions tomorrow afternoon.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction
1:26 Eclipse cloud forecast
22:40 Severe weather forecast discussion begins
26:08 Discussion of Monday's risk
40:44 Discussion of Tuesday's risk
46:16 Discussion of the Wednesday-Thursday risk
49:07 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
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Trey, I am a recent subscriber. Watched many of your breakdowns/analysis of historical events, and have started viewing your channel for Day 1-3 forecast analysis.
I have a degree in meteorology, was in Oklahoma for the 2013 tornado season, and really appreciate what you've created here.
As a charter pilot, I am constantly in search of high quality breakdowns like this, since I simply don't have time to deep dive into the models like I used to. Your channel has been a godsend for awareness on synoptic/mesoscale analysis on risky days. I just pop in my earbuds and listen to your videos on the way to the airport.
I think this is the future space for weather news, and wish your channel absolute success!
Wow, thank you so much for the Super Thanks and for the kind words! I’m so happy to hear you’ve been enjoying the content!
"Hey Everyone Trey Here" is always my favorite part this is going to be a great video always appreciate your videos Trey keep up the good work 😊 excited for the eclipse Tomorrow
Thank you! Tomorrow should be fun!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesyour welcome and yeah it should be I get to watch the eclipse in my yard I'm right on the edge of totality and I'm in the marginal risk tomorrow and I could see a good severe thunderstorm hmm how much better could this get
@@ConvectiveChroniclestrey is there somewhere you post your chases
@@Stormfishingfordiscs My other UA-cam channel is called MadWX Chasing, and that's solely for my storm chasing footage
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks I'll be sure to check it out
Positioned in Northern Arkansas. Thanks for the review!
Trey always there to save the day! Thanks bud. You are very much appreciated.
Thank you so much!
Eclipse enthusiasts definitely should head to Maine. Multi day severe weather enjoyers should head south lol.
man...the SPC put the orange blob on me.
but hey...we're having a eclipse pizza party at work...so i got that going for me. lol...
good stuff Trey...and thanks .
be safe if you're gonna be out.
Thank you! I’ll be out for the eclipse tomorrow and will be starting chase tours after that, so I’ll be out for this setup.
As a Central Texan you're videos are SO HELPFUL! Easy to understand, kinda gives me an idea of threats to look out for Monday and Tuesday and potentially throughout the spring. Thank you!
Thank you so much! Stay safe this week!
I’m in the path of totality. It’s been a mad house here. I’m going to watch the darkness indirectly. My 2nd floor is high then and across from windows where the light comes in so I’ll see the shadows on our light tile.
HEY! 1st to comment!! Going to either carbondale Illinois or Indianapolis Indiana tomorrow for the eclispe. Both look to be around 30% cloud cover unfortunately. Better than nothing i guess. Will be checking forcast at 4am central tomorrow as its not worth the 5hr drive if its any higher! As always thanks Trey
Northern Illinois looking good for viewing partial eclipse! 🤞🏻
Thank you for the update! Im not liking how all of the risks are elevated but hopefully the mode being potentially messy will help it not be too bad
The NAM has tended to overdo certain set ups at times, but the way it's looking in Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday has gotten my attention, hopefully the HRRR and the NSSL models tone it down
I do think storm mode will preclude a greater event, and the NAM certainly looks to be an outlier at this point, but we shall see
Said the same thing last week about the Ohio Valley and the morning storms zapped all the CAPE
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah true, the GFS didn't really show anything too crazy
The models actually had me fooled. I thought the blue was clear skies and I thought my family would get low cloud cover, but I guess not. I find it strange that the low cloud cover is grey when the color of clouds is gray. Seems pretty counter-intuitive, but I am glad that these models are forecasting much less cloud cover than I thought they were, so many more people will get to experience this rare event.
Yeah, it’s a pretty awful color scheme; I’m not sure why they do it that way. But I agree, glad more folks are going to be able to see it in full!
Trey coming in with the clutch.
There’s only wispy clouds right now. I’m really hoping for the wisps to stay. Camera batteries charging and shutter release forgotten. I’m definitely ready and not missing anything 😬
Hey Trey, don't get caught out in any big hailers in tex/ok, make sure to stay safe much thanks from Texas ❤
Will do, thank you!
Fort smith let’s goo baby
O snap, it's Mr Chronicles with da weather!
As a Kentuckian, western/jackson purchase KY is looking like somewhat decent place to visit during the eclipse. Too bad I'll be in a job interview in eastern KY as it's happening 😅
Here's hoping we get some photogenic crop disturber supercells and nothing more 🤞
Best of luck on the interview!
I guess it is good to see that San Antonio is now just in a slight risk
Hey everybody, multi-day southern US severe threat here.
have they incorporated the eclipse itself into the inputs of the numerical models...that should have a small but definite impact on the outputs
I’m not sure; that would be interesting if they did.
Would you say that it is worth driving ~5 hours to around cape girardeau on the border between MO/IL (southwest of Carbondale), considering cloud cover?
My plan is to drive over late tonight and get there in the early AM, take a small nap and reposition considering cloud cover. I scheduled off of work so I’d really have nothing else to do, but it’s like a $100 trip
^eclipse, not stormchasing
I would do whatever you can to get into the path; it’s mesmerizing. That area might be dealing with some thicker cirrus, but you’ll still be able to see it.
This may be a sneaky day. An all hazards event and just the start of a pretty active 4 day stretch of all 3 hazards in play. Hail still main theat on this but this does have some sneaky broad tornado potential so a semi robust day before the main action kicks off mid-week.
Wednesday still looking very robust for a concentrated tornado outbreak....really digging some of the model consistency in terms of the EURO and GFS and that surging LLJ for much of the day too. That day has some significant tornado potential red flags on it but pretty robust low and trough this is gonna be Tuesday-Thuraday. SE tornado season fully alive now.
Should Ohio be weather aware for Thursday? They added a new slight
Yes
This year hates Wichita Falls for some reason. Round after round
Do you think the solar eclipse could effect destabilization of the atmosphere during Mondays threat?
No, the eclipse will be too brief for it to matter
@ConvectiveChronicles could the moon create a gravity wave?
@@slayer18726 No, those are created by disturbances within a stable atmosphere
@ConvectiveChronicles I was in Findlay Ohio for the eclipse. The temp dropped 8 degrees from first contact to totality. Such a surreal experience
Since the storms will be carrying on over night, can these storms still produce hail in the morning hours? I know it's not typical but is it even possible??
Yes, that’s certainly possible, especially with any discrete convection that remains.
@@ConvectiveChronicles little worried about Tuesday morning, north of Austin. Not sure if the SPC is showing for the entire day or all day for that 30% hatch
@@jenniferbrown3193 It covers an all day threat from multiple rounds of storms
In Niagara Falls, Ontario, they declared a State of Emergency because of the expected one million people coming to see the eclipse. Hotels are charging $1,200 a night (US), $1,600 CDN. So I'm hoping we're not socked in by thick clouds, or this is going to be the Great Disappointment 2024!
Same thing has happened here! Many areas have issued States of Emergency and hotel prices are astronomical (no pun intended)…I hope you all are able get some breaks in the clouds!
Another miss for the Texas panhandle 😒