I've heard it's as bad as six years worth of overstock at distros and big ecomm sites. Seems like a total bottom out is inevitable. A friend of mine just opened a service only shop, which is raging. He did it out of frustration with shops who act like they can't stand doing service.
Working at a shop during covid and seeing all that change over the last couple months has been kinda crazy to see, hoping most shops stay open and get through the next few years and get back to somewhat normal
Great video, thanks for the honesty here. It must be a bit scary sometimes running a shop in kinda uncertain times, but I think you're absolutely right. Mountain biking is getting more and more popular, I think the growth in consumers year after year can offset the oversupply we might finally see here for a little bit. But videos like this are what should make us want to support our local shops more, even if it can at times be easier to go online. The face to face experience is always so much better.
Wow - great, great video Brian! "I do think demand will be flat or down from last year, but still growth over 2019" - I completely agree, but I'm also curious who will hurt the most after over ordering - I'd guess the distributor but it could be the manufactors, we'll see!
I think it will be anyone who gets stuck with huge amounts of inventory. I think we will see it at every level of distribution based on who did what. Some brands will have over supply (Giant) and some brands are still several months away from filling new orders. Same goes for bike shops, and distributors.
Great info! For the true bike enthusiasts (those of us that were on bikes BEFORE covid) there will likely be some deals to be had here soon on both parts and bikes. The massive wildcard in this were the new covid riders and eBikers that have flooded the market and did NOT stick with it. It will create havoc on used bike prices for sure.
I agree with most of this, except the people who didn't stick with it rarely sell their bikes right away. It's always a "I'll do that again soon". In my own life I've got snow shoes I look at in my shed 4-5 times a year and say "I'll do that next time it snows". The snowshoes are currently 5 years old and never been touched. We won't see the same demand we've seen years previous so pricing will fall.
@@smithcreekcycle I know how expensive snow shoes can get! lol But I'm talking about $3-5K MTB's (the typical Giant Bikes) or $5-7K eMTB's that are likely hogging up space in a garage, dining room etc. Wives/girlfriends, etc will be pointing these out if not already to sell your covid purchase. Hell, my neighbor has his covid bike sitting on the side of his house....he rode it twice. I've always been in it for the long haul - 1992 Diamond Back Sorento was my first...then a Manitou HT, 2003 Kona Dawg Deelux, 2010 Pivot Mach 5 and now my 2022 Switchblade.
Flash, eight months later, 3 major custom cycle companies are closing their doors. Cannondale may not survive. I think your prognosis was nearly completely wrong. If supply and design fail at the production level, your little shop will feel the effects before larger LBS fer sure.
I also got a bike shop and also with huge stock and I'm thinking that I'd like to motivate my customers to use their bikes more. Maybe we could organise some events like group rides, etc. Have you got any good ideas?
Taking the emotion out of running a business (especially a bike shop) isn’t easy. Ultimately yes it hurts dealers and the industry but if there is a lesson here it’s to not put too many eggs in any basket and diversify revenue streams.
I think your video was well done and honest but you seem to not intentionally perhaps but in my opinion and many others you don't acknowledge the outlandish prices being charged for new bikes. These prices are obscene and the manufacturers and LBS need bring prices down back to a fair price. Your thoughts?
Demand for the last two years has been incredibly high, and supply has been impossibly low. As that flips I'd expect to see shops actually get deals from suppliers, something that hasn't happened recently. I'd expect as we get back to normal we'll see more balanced supply and demand. So yes pricing should drop. I won't call what happened outlandish. Frustrating yes, but frustrating for all. Shipping containers precovid cost about 4,000 to get to Canada they peaked at around 20,000, raw material costs, labour, long lead times were all factors. As a shop inflation is now a factor in the costs as well. I think we'll see things get more competitive this year which should be an opportunity for your shop to blow you away with great service and if they formerly had to charge more hopefully their pricing can balance out as well.
@@smithcreekcycle I appreciate your response and I wish you and your business the best of luck. You seem to be a fair person and if I lived where you are I am sure I would stop by. I am in Florida and am going to be purchasing 2 bikes in next couple of months.
I've heard it's as bad as six years worth of overstock at distros and big ecomm sites. Seems like a total bottom out is inevitable. A friend of mine just opened a service only shop, which is raging. He did it out of frustration with shops who act like they can't stand doing service.
Opened in 2020? Ryan you have cojones the size of basketballs! Thanks for your insights, and valuable time away from the bench!
Race to the bottom begins 😢 Great video
Working at a shop during covid and seeing all that change over the last couple months has been kinda crazy to see, hoping most shops stay open and get through the next few years and get back to somewhat normal
I also work in the industry here in BC, this is a fantastic take, thank you!
Really good to hear a perspective from the trenches.
Great video, thanks for the honesty here. It must be a bit scary sometimes running a shop in kinda uncertain times, but I think you're absolutely right. Mountain biking is getting more and more popular, I think the growth in consumers year after year can offset the oversupply we might finally see here for a little bit. But videos like this are what should make us want to support our local shops more, even if it can at times be easier to go online. The face to face experience is always so much better.
It’s scary sometimes for sure, actually it’s scary about 85% of the time lol.
We just need prices to go back like pre 2019. Very, very smart not over ordering.
A+ content guys!
Wow - great, great video Brian! "I do think demand will be flat or down from last year, but still growth over 2019" - I completely agree, but I'm also curious who will hurt the most after over ordering - I'd guess the distributor but it could be the manufactors, we'll see!
I think it will be anyone who gets stuck with huge amounts of inventory. I think we will see it at every level of distribution based on who did what. Some brands will have over supply (Giant) and some brands are still several months away from filling new orders. Same goes for bike shops, and distributors.
well....8 months in the future here. Its kinda a fire sale. So going into the Winter of 2023/24. Everything is on SALE!
love these videos about the business end of things
I’ve got another one coming soon :)
Great info! For the true bike enthusiasts (those of us that were on bikes BEFORE covid) there will likely be some deals to be had here soon on both parts and bikes. The massive wildcard in this were the new covid riders and eBikers that have flooded the market and did NOT stick with it. It will create havoc on used bike prices for sure.
I agree with most of this, except the people who didn't stick with it rarely sell their bikes right away. It's always a "I'll do that again soon". In my own life I've got snow shoes I look at in my shed 4-5 times a year and say "I'll do that next time it snows". The snowshoes are currently 5 years old and never been touched. We won't see the same demand we've seen years previous so pricing will fall.
@@smithcreekcycle I know how expensive snow shoes can get! lol But I'm talking about $3-5K MTB's (the typical Giant Bikes) or $5-7K eMTB's that are likely hogging up space in a garage, dining room etc. Wives/girlfriends, etc will be pointing these out if not already to sell your covid purchase. Hell, my neighbor has his covid bike sitting on the side of his house....he rode it twice. I've always been in it for the long haul - 1992 Diamond Back Sorento was my first...then a Manitou HT, 2003 Kona Dawg Deelux, 2010 Pivot Mach 5 and now my 2022 Switchblade.
Flash, eight months later, 3 major custom cycle companies are closing their doors. Cannondale may not survive. I think your prognosis was nearly completely wrong. If supply and design fail at the production level, your little shop will feel the effects before larger LBS fer sure.
I also got a bike shop and also with huge stock and I'm thinking that I'd like to motivate my customers to use their bikes more. Maybe we could organise some events like group rides, etc. Have you got any good ideas?
shoot me an email! I'm working on something that I don't want to be public yet but can share with you. brian@smithcreekcycle.ca
What do you think or say about company's doing big sales? Like marin buy one get one free? Hurting the small shops?
Taking the emotion out of running a business (especially a bike shop) isn’t easy. Ultimately yes it hurts dealers and the industry but if there is a lesson here it’s to not put too many eggs in any basket and diversify revenue streams.
I think your video was well done and honest but you seem to not intentionally perhaps but in my opinion and many others you don't acknowledge the outlandish prices being charged for new bikes. These prices are obscene and the manufacturers and LBS need bring prices down back to a fair price. Your thoughts?
Demand for the last two years has been incredibly high, and supply has been impossibly low. As that flips I'd expect to see shops actually get deals from suppliers, something that hasn't happened recently. I'd expect as we get back to normal we'll see more balanced supply and demand. So yes pricing should drop. I won't call what happened outlandish. Frustrating yes, but frustrating for all. Shipping containers precovid cost about 4,000 to get to Canada they peaked at around 20,000, raw material costs, labour, long lead times were all factors. As a shop inflation is now a factor in the costs as well. I think we'll see things get more competitive this year which should be an opportunity for your shop to blow you away with great service and if they formerly had to charge more hopefully their pricing can balance out as well.
@@smithcreekcycle I appreciate your response and I wish you and your business the best of luck. You seem to be a fair person and if I lived where you are I am sure I would stop by. I am in Florida and am going to be purchasing 2 bikes in next couple of months.
Is that Richard Kiel's son?
Who’s Richard? Should I meet him? Pretty sure my dads name isn’t Richard. ;)
@@smithcreekcycle it was a joke. He is the guy that plays Sampson on the longest yard. Similar look and voice.
@@oldtimerandbubbamtb6423 pop culture isn’t my strong suit lol
This aged bad:)
This didn't age well.