I'm 40 minutes in and this interview is getting painful to listen to, especially given that Brian evidently possesses a strong understanding of the Fed's conventional and unconventional monetary policies. What he's missing is that extraordinary fiscal stimulus and YOLO Yellen micromanaging UST market liquidity have largely sterilized monetary tightening to date. The US economy is re-accelerating. It's an election year too, so fiscal and Treasury aren't letting up any time soon.
Until we hit the private refinance maturities, the elevated interest rates are just adding inflationary / pro-cyclical fuel to the pro-cyclical fiscal deficits. So, no surprise the economy is showing signs of bottoming and turning up. Inflation will likely stay above target until something breaks.... Maybe the banks? Maybe the corporate debt zombies? I really don't know.
Agree with your sentiment. Sounds like your conclusion is optimistic for the remainder of 2024 whereas the guest seems to be predicting the beginning of a downturn by April or so. Being long US equities you can guess what I would prefer.
@@GeorgeFisher4 Unless the bond market does the Fed's job for them in substantially tightening financial conditions, long US equities for 2024 is a lay up IMO. And even if the bond market causes some turmoil, Fed and Treasury will coordinate to restore "financial stability". Long and BTFD in US equities is the play for 2024 IMO, but I'm just some guy on the internet, so take that for what it's worth 🙂
Your comment sounds like you’re trading your book. Good luck with that. All information good. We all have our beliefs and we should try to shake them up.
@@gscorsone I'm open to being wrong. Would've been great for Brian to address the fiscal impulse and Treasury tinkering, especially since he's clearly very knowledgeable - as I noted in my initial message - but he didn't. Go ahead and ignore them if you wish, but these are powerful macro drivers.
What did he say, recession and stock market low comes 2 years after yield curve uninversion? I thought it was within 12-15 months. Is he claiming the whole world can't count the months from yield inversion to recession start?
stop talking about QT. The Fed stopped the transitory balance sheet reduction two months ago. Over that period of time there has been some trivial draw downs but the program has basically ended. This means the balance sheet will soon continue its parabolic move and inflation will grow out of control.
finland is not a happy country. I live in sweden and believe me, people do not move there to be happy.. myth/marketing/clickbait or whatever. Best pointer i can give is why? why happy? why happiest? is a tropical paradise, riches abound? what dynamic has brought on this mass smile across the country? being next door to russia? the widespread alcoholism? the racial tensions?
I love it when Kuppy is on the pod. So many insights from listening to him.
I wish he'd elaborate a bit on the Vwap machine he keeps mentioning
It is nice of Kuppy to interview Patrick.
I'm 40 minutes in and this interview is getting painful to listen to, especially given that Brian evidently possesses a strong understanding of the Fed's conventional and unconventional monetary policies. What he's missing is that extraordinary fiscal stimulus and YOLO Yellen micromanaging UST market liquidity have largely sterilized monetary tightening to date. The US economy is re-accelerating. It's an election year too, so fiscal and Treasury aren't letting up any time soon.
Until we hit the private refinance maturities, the elevated interest rates are just adding inflationary / pro-cyclical fuel to the pro-cyclical fiscal deficits. So, no surprise the economy is showing signs of bottoming and turning up. Inflation will likely stay above target until something breaks.... Maybe the banks? Maybe the corporate debt zombies? I really don't know.
Agree with your sentiment. Sounds like your conclusion is optimistic for the remainder of 2024 whereas the guest seems to be predicting the beginning of a downturn by April or so. Being long US equities you can guess what I would prefer.
@@GeorgeFisher4 Unless the bond market does the Fed's job for them in substantially tightening financial conditions, long US equities for 2024 is a lay up IMO. And even if the bond market causes some turmoil, Fed and Treasury will coordinate to restore "financial stability". Long and BTFD in US equities is the play for 2024 IMO, but I'm just some guy on the internet, so take that for what it's worth 🙂
Your comment sounds like you’re trading your book. Good luck with that. All information good. We all have our beliefs and we should try to shake them up.
@@gscorsone I'm open to being wrong. Would've been great for Brian to address the fiscal impulse and Treasury tinkering, especially since he's clearly very knowledgeable - as I noted in my initial message - but he didn't. Go ahead and ignore them if you wish, but these are powerful macro drivers.
What different this time? Fiscal stimulus, that’s still ongoing. Neutralizing the normal effects of monetary tightening.
What did he say, recession and stock market low comes 2 years after yield curve uninversion? I thought it was within 12-15 months. Is he claiming the whole world can't count the months from yield inversion to recession start?
stop talking about QT. The Fed stopped the transitory balance sheet reduction two months ago. Over that period of time there has been some trivial draw downs but the program has basically ended. This means the balance sheet will soon continue its parabolic move and inflation will grow out of control.
Thanks guys
These beers.... honestly sounds like you'd rather be drinking anything but beer itself. Keep it simple fellas.
finland is not a happy country. I live in sweden and believe me, people do not move there to be happy.. myth/marketing/clickbait or whatever. Best pointer i can give is why? why happy? why happiest? is a tropical paradise, riches abound? what dynamic has brought on this mass smile across the country? being next door to russia? the widespread alcoholism? the racial tensions?
"stickhandled" - so wonderfully Canadian eh 🙂