For the record China spends $350 billion USD on oil currently every year. China built 350 gw of wind and solar power in 2023. That is the equivalent of 120 nuclear power plants every year. More than 50% of automobile sales in China are battery electric vehicles. As the wind and solar power revolution continues in China they won’t need to spend so much currency on importing oil. Another reason for the renminbi to go up in value.
China pays for oil in its own currency now to Russia, Saudi, Iran, UAE,... China can print money to get oil, just as the US has been able to do for 50 years, but not for much longer as the petro-dollar is dying as the US has little the oil kings want, except for weapons that the US is unwlling to sell to some and is unable to manufacture anyway without huge delays + cost overruns.
My notes : 52:20 US equity, now Nov 2024 is 2/3 global market cap with 4% population, 20% GDP, do you think US could deliver the 2/3 of global corporate profits for the next decade? Buy China equity - 3X in 5 years.
@@janospackany4312 It's a ponzi scam. Why do central banks have none of it. Some own gold, bonds, stocks, silver, real estate, even jewels & fine art. But no sh*tcoin.
Louis has been flogging the China horse for the good part of the last decade. We all know how well it turned out. The trade might work at some point (I doubt it) but defo not for the reasons he is describing here.
If you paid attention, he advocates Chinese bonds. They've beat US bonds over all time periods in the last 30 years, massively so in recent years. I guess you missed his point about how the US does everything possible to protect the value of equities for the 1%, while China protects the real value of its bonds, and others like Aus & Canada protect real estate prices, and Europe protects the bloated pensions of its huge army of retired civil servants lmao. China doesn't care about stock prices, real estate developers, and declines to bailout them & banksters like the US does regularly now, because few chinese own stocks. They own property, bonds, and most of all, physical gold. Let's watch which does better during the coming sh*show, the gold owners or paper bag holders. No need to wait and see tho as thousands of years of history reveals all.
@@davidrichards1741 Ok sure, have a look at past month CCP actions to decide how investable the Chinese bond market is. The truth is Xi's China is a slo mo trainwreck.
@@blek99 What CCP action last month? I noticed the historic Peace & Co-operation treaty signd by all arabic & middle eastern states brokered & signed in Beijing. While in contrast the US continued its genocide of women & children against the disapprovals of 90% of humanity. And the dollar index collapsing almost 5% this month, 10% in a year and almost 20% in the last 2 years since Sept 2022, With worse to come for the dollar because weak country, weak currency. China runnining all-time high trade supluses over $100B monthly while the US runs the biggest twin deficits (trade & budget) in human history.
Look at the long bond charts bro. I wouldn't touch US bonds with a ten foot pole except for a tactical trade (now). But annuities and pensions like chinese bonds. Per Ray Dalio, the brilliant successful hedge fund manager (retired), recently: "The United States is now a poor country that thinks it's still a rich country. China is a rich country that thinks it's still a poor country."
I don't believe there is such a thing as a "pain" trade on a stock market rally. 99.99% of investors and equity funds are long. 162 million people own stocks. How many investors are short and how big is their short position vs their long poistion? A bear market is painful, not a bull market.
I think it's about the FOMO pain as there's a hella lot in money markets at 5% whilst real US inflation is lots more and about to inflect higher again while Powell will cut rates in the Weimar US Republic. Most things in US have roughly doubled in price over the past 5 years whilst most prices in china are unchanged, hmm. Read the book Gave mentioned, East-West.
For the life of me I don't know why Gave doesn't live in China. He has such unbridled respect for their system and is so critical of the West (the U.S. in particular). In any case, if you're following Gave's bias-laden investment views, good luck. Even he admitted things haven't been going so well.
Actually, Gave now lives in the uber-rich Gulf Islands, which is where the richest Hollywood stars keep a 2nd home, plus he has a ski chalet in Whislter BC, the largest and tallest ski resort in North America
If you had the $30M+ minimum required to be a clilent of his firm, you'd know they own US stocks too, tho maybe not so much now (even Buffet is mostly out of US stocks now too and Berkshire's best-ever single investment was actually a Chinese company called BYD who now sells more cars globally than every other manufacturer). If you listen and read Gave, he has long advocated for Chinese bonds too. And in fact Chinese bonds have beaten US bonds over all time periods in the last 30 years, massively so in recent years. I guess you missed his point about how the US does everything possible to protect the value of its equity market to protect the richest 1% who own 80% of the stock market value, something contentious whether that's good or bad. In contrast, China protects the real value of its bonds (like Germany used to but no longer), and other countries like Aus & Canada protect their real estate market prices, and Europe protects the bloated pensions of its huge army of retired civil servants, lmao. China doesn't care about stock prices, real estate developers, and thus refuses to bail out them and the banksters as the US regularly does now, because few chinese own stocks. Local chinese investors don't have direct access to international stock investments except via a "wealth mgmt product fund" that they're distrustful of, so instead Chinese tend to invest in property, bonds, and most of all, physical gold. Let's watch which does better during the coming sh*show, the gold owners or paper bag holders. No need to wait tho as many years of history reveals all.
Good commentary. Actually, the Chinese people and American people are great. They both yearn for freedom and free market capitalism. Unfortunately, it is their governments that are the ones that wrongly prosecute and attempt to jail their free speech citizens because they are political opponents.
LVG - most thoughtful guy in markets .. trust me thx guys
True
Great convo, thanks guys!
Love this video - thanks for putting it up!
I love that you disagree! It's much more valuable than an echo chamber!
That was fun and very interesting, thanks a lot!
For the record China spends $350 billion USD on oil currently every year. China built 350 gw of wind and solar power in 2023. That is the equivalent of 120 nuclear power plants every year. More than 50% of automobile sales in China are battery electric vehicles. As the wind and solar power revolution continues in China they won’t need to spend so much currency on importing oil. Another reason for the renminbi to go up in value.
China pays for oil in its own currency now to Russia, Saudi, Iran, UAE,... China can print money to get oil, just as the US has been able to do for 50 years, but not for much longer as the petro-dollar is dying as the US has little the oil kings want, except for weapons that the US is unwlling to sell to some and is unable to manufacture anyway without huge delays + cost overruns.
Great convo
Books he recommended :
Money Machine by Weijan Shan
Parkinson's Law
East and West by Northcole Parkinson.
always interesting
My notes : 52:20 US equity, now Nov 2024 is 2/3 global market cap with 4% population, 20% GDP, do you think US could deliver the 2/3 of global corporate profits for the next decade? Buy China equity - 3X in 5 years.
Out of curiosity, what happened to Leena?
First!!!!🎉🎉🎉
Thanks guys
Gold, silver, copper, uranium and bitcoin. Tangible assets.
Either take Bitcoin out or do not call that tangible assets.
Software is by definition not a tangible asset
@@janospackany4312 It's a ponzi scam. Why do central banks have none of it. Some own gold, bonds, stocks, silver, real estate, even jewels & fine art. But no sh*tcoin.
Bitcon
Louis has been flogging the China horse for the good part of the last decade. We all know how well it turned out. The trade might work at some point (I doubt it) but defo not for the reasons he is describing here.
If you paid attention, he advocates Chinese bonds. They've beat US bonds over all time periods in the last 30 years, massively so in recent years. I guess you missed his point about how the US does everything possible to protect the value of equities for the 1%, while China protects the real value of its bonds, and others like Aus & Canada protect real estate prices, and Europe protects the bloated pensions of its huge army of retired civil servants lmao. China doesn't care about stock prices, real estate developers, and declines to bailout them & banksters like the US does regularly now, because few chinese own stocks. They own property, bonds, and most of all, physical gold. Let's watch which does better during the coming sh*show, the gold owners or paper bag holders. No need to wait and see tho as thousands of years of history reveals all.
@@davidrichards1741 Ok sure, have a look at past month CCP actions to decide how investable the Chinese bond market is. The truth is Xi's China is a slo mo trainwreck.
@@blek99 What CCP action last month? I noticed the historic Peace & Co-operation treaty signd by all arabic & middle eastern states brokered & signed in Beijing. While in contrast the US continued its genocide of women & children against the disapprovals of 90% of humanity. And the dollar index collapsing almost 5% this month, 10% in a year and almost 20% in the last 2 years since Sept 2022, With worse to come for the dollar because weak country, weak currency. China runnining all-time high trade supluses over $100B monthly while the US runs the biggest twin deficits (trade & budget) in human history.
Look at the long bond charts bro. I wouldn't touch US bonds with a ten foot pole except for a tactical trade (now). But annuities and pensions like chinese bonds. Per Ray Dalio, the brilliant successful hedge fund manager (retired), recently: "The United States is now a poor country that thinks it's still a rich country. China is a rich country that thinks it's still a poor country."
Yep, we all should have bought gold….
I don't believe there is such a thing as a "pain" trade on a stock market rally. 99.99% of investors and equity funds are long. 162 million people own stocks. How many investors are short and how big is their short position vs their long poistion? A bear market is painful, not a bull market.
I think it's about the FOMO pain as there's a hella lot in money markets at 5% whilst real US inflation is lots more and about to inflect higher again while Powell will cut rates in the Weimar US Republic. Most things in US have roughly doubled in price over the past 5 years whilst most prices in china are unchanged, hmm. Read the book Gave mentioned, East-West.
Maybe thats why Beijing Shaghai (or any hst in china) dont make any money
For the life of me I don't know why Gave doesn't live in China. He has such unbridled respect for their system and is so critical of the West (the U.S. in particular). In any case, if you're following Gave's bias-laden investment views, good luck. Even he admitted things haven't been going so well.
Gave lives in Hong Kong, a special admin region of China.
Actually, Gave now lives in the uber-rich Gulf Islands, which is where the richest Hollywood stars keep a 2nd home, plus he has a ski chalet in Whislter BC, the largest and tallest ski resort in North America
If you had the $30M+ minimum required to be a clilent of his firm, you'd know they own US stocks too, tho maybe not so much now (even Buffet is mostly out of US stocks now too and Berkshire's best-ever single investment was actually a Chinese company called BYD who now sells more cars globally than every other manufacturer). If you listen and read Gave, he has long advocated for Chinese bonds too. And in fact Chinese bonds have beaten US bonds over all time periods in the last 30 years, massively so in recent years. I guess you missed his point about how the US does everything possible to protect the value of its equity market to protect the richest 1% who own 80% of the stock market value, something contentious whether that's good or bad. In contrast, China protects the real value of its bonds (like Germany used to but no longer), and other countries like Aus & Canada protect their real estate market prices, and Europe protects the bloated pensions of its huge army of retired civil servants, lmao. China doesn't care about stock prices, real estate developers, and thus refuses to bail out them and the banksters as the US regularly does now, because few chinese own stocks. Local chinese investors don't have direct access to international stock investments except via a "wealth mgmt product fund" that they're distrustful of, so instead Chinese tend to invest in property, bonds, and most of all, physical gold. Let's watch which does better during the coming sh*show, the gold owners or paper bag holders. No need to wait tho as many years of history reveals all.
Good commentary. Actually, the Chinese people and American people are great. They both yearn for freedom and free market capitalism. Unfortunately, it is their governments that are the ones that wrongly prosecute and attempt to jail their free speech citizens because they are political opponents.