6:49 - Since some math was requested, here's a quick breakdown on the odds of hitting one specific minion or one specific spell with Boundless Potential on T5 with the tribes in this game (Demon, Elemental, Mech, Murloc, Pirate): There are 27 minions on T5: 4 Demons, 3 Elementals, 5 Mechs (includes Kangor), 3 Murlocs, 4 Pirates, and 9 neutrals that are always in. There are 9 spells on T5: 8 that are always in and Corrupted Cupcakes due to demons being in the lobby. With 27 minions, there's a 1 in 9 chance of getting offered one specific minion. This was calculated by determining the number of outcomes where the minion isn't offered and then taking the inverse. In this case 26/27 * 25/26 * 24/25 -> 24/27 -> 8/9 -> (inverse) 1/9. With 9 spells, there's a 1 in 3 chance of getting offered one specific spell using the same method as above. 8/9 * 7/8 * 6/7 -> 6/9 -> 2/3 -> (inverse) 1/3. If you're looking for just one minion on the tier as opposed to one spell, choosing to discover a spell is 3 times as likely as being offered the minion. Incidentally, you need to be looking for 4 possible T5 minions before the odds overtake looking for a single spell as it then becomes 1154/2925 which is ~39.5%. In summary, using Boundless Potential to discover a spell will get you what you're looking for more often than a minion but the lower odds for discovering the minion could still be worth it if there's a specific unit that you really need to power your comp. 🤓 EDIT: Adding more math to answer A1V4R0cs's question in the replies. So that math gets way more complicated but here's my best ballpark based on some quick data gathering from the Battlegrounds card list on the official Blizzard site. With the tribes in, here are the breakdowns of minions per tier: T1: 12, T2: 20, T3: 23, T4: 24, T5: 29, T6: 20 Since there are 16 copies of each T1, 15 copies of each T2, 13 copies of each T3, 11 copies of each T4, 9 copies of each T5, and 7 copies of each T6, this gives us these totals per tier: T1: 192, T2: 300, T3: 299, T4: 264, T5: 261, T6: 140 To calculate perfectly, we would need to account for all of the minions taken out of the pool due to being in play or in other players hands but that way lies madness so we'll just assume the full pool since that should get us close enough. So... Now that we have all that data, we can first determine the odds of rolling T5 units in the shop. I won't list out all the math, but my calculations are based on 261 T5 units from a total pool of 1316. 0 T5 units: 33.05% 1 T5 unit: 41.04% 2 T5 units: 20.28% 3 T5 units: 4.99% 4 T5 units: 0.61% 5 T5 units: 0.03% With those odds, you'll see 0.9916 T5 units per shop on average. Then we can consider that over the course of 3 shops, you would expect to see 2.97 T5 units on average. So, this comes out very close to the 3 units that you are guaranteed to see when using the spell to discover one. However, while it cost 3 gold to see 3 shops (assuming you had to pay for each), you would still need to spend an additional 3 gold to buy a minion if you found it so it would cost 6 gold in total. On the other hand, by playing the spell to discover a minion, you've already paid the 3 gold up front and you're guaranteed some minion in hand so it's a net cost of 2 if you wind up selling whatever you found. Taking all of that into consideration, the math dictates that it's statistically better to discover a minion with the spell rather than rolling for it.
That's a useful analysis! However, I thing Dog was asking what has a higher probability of finding an specific T5 minion: using the spell or rolling 3 times. If you feel like doing it, let me know because I'm curious :D
@@A1V4R0cs Added the requested calculations as an edit to the main comment. They're probably a little off since I rushed them, but they should be close enough.
27 minions on Tier 5, so to hit 1 minion that you want, you have a 3/27, or 1/9 chance, 11.11%. This chance changes slightly depending on the tribes in the lobby since different tribes have different numbers of minions on Tier 5. For instance, elementals have 3, demons have 4, mechs have 5, and beasts have 6 (also changes based on dual tribes, such as mech horse). The chance to recoup gold depends on the tribes in the lobby and whether or not you plan to keep a minion on board for a turn to get more money, such as keeping djinni on board for the deathrattle. It also depends on if you lost your last fight (blue shell) or if you have a murloc already on board (primalfin). How much money you get back also depends on what they give you (especially djinni, darkcrest, and rodeo performer). It basically becomes too complex for me to want to get into, but the number of minions that can give you money back is relatively small. On the other hand, the calculation of chance per roll is easier. There's an average of 1014.5 cards in the pool at tier 5. You see 5 cards per roll, and there are 9 copies of each tier 5 card in the pool. Considering there's a thousand cards in the pool, the number that your opponents may or may not have doesn't change the chances much unless your desired 5 star is missing a few copies. Otherwise, it's a 4.44% chance per roll to see it, or 12.7% chance (because of combinatorial math, it's a 87.3% chance to NOT see your card) in 3 rolls. You technically have a higher chance to see the card you want in 3 rolls, but you can always sell the minion from the boundless potential for an extra roll, which would mean that you would have a 15.1% chance (combinatorial math) to see it. Bonus if you happen to get a good minion to keep or a minion that will give extra gold. So it's probably going to be better to buy a boundless potential for a tier 5 minion, especially in lobbies with more instant gold-generating 5-drops (elementals, dragons, naga, while murlocs depend on board state, demons if you get tardy traveller and roll into a good spell). Plus a decent amount of 5 drops generate (or have at least a chance to generate) more gold by next turn (prime mate, djinni, darkcrest, holo rover, moonsteel juggernaut). TL;DR: Boundless potential is always better unless you are board locked. Rolling 3 times has a 12.7% chance while boundless potential has a 11.1% chance, but buying and using boundless, then selling a bad result or replacing a bad minion on your board with the new 5 drop (or just getting more money from the 5 drop and using that), then rolling will put you at a 15.1% chance to get the 5-drop you want. P.S. You can't simply add the percentages of individual rolls or discoveries together because you can see the same card multiple times. Otherwise, rolling 23 times would give a 100% chance of seeing the card. Or, in a similar vein, you would see every 6-drop spell (6 in total) by casting boundless potential 2 times, every single time. But that obviously isn't the case.
Dog. First off, don’t let some amateur psychologist get in your head. Second, I will expand on what I just said by also lending an assist. Your “marketable skill” is not in playing a random popular video game. Yes you are very good but I would expect that from anyone who trains as hard as you do. No. Your skill is taking these runs and creating a marketable product with them using a measurable metric. Sort of like an author. Create content. Edit content. Publish content. Get paid for content. Rinse and repeat. Plus this is a highly randomized game. Yes you just get lucky sometimes but your deep understanding of game theory can be developed to further improve the experience for everyone. Nah king. You are doing great. You are smart, loyal, passionate, and dedicated. A good man.
Had a round where I pulled two loc princess eyes, and both of them then pulled another. Ended up with all of them being over 1kand the two golden ones being over 2.5k was a crazy round.
Think of it this way. Without the damage cap, individual placement becomes heavily tied to matchup RNG. If there's one player in the lobby that snowballs out of control early and can deal 30+ damage while everyone else would deal a max of 10-15 if they win, is it fair to punish the player who had the misfortune of facing the high roller early?
@@TinyPowerfuIFists There must be a better way to go about it though, there shouldn't be such a low limit of 15 damage for as long as there is right now. You're right that it's good to punish those who face the high roller by lesser damage, but the way it is now rewards certain thresholds by too much. It's super common to see players outlive where they should place simply because they have 16+ or 31+ health, so they can get utterly destroyed in fights but can only take 15. Someone getting barely beaten in terms of stats, by one 5* minion that's low health from a tier 5 player for example, takes 10 which is almost as much damage as the other player which isn't really fair on turn 11+ imo. I think you could make a soft cap past say turn 10 and halve the amount of damage dealt by players once their damage goes over 15 when the cap is still 'active', so if I beat you by 30* of damage while cap is on, you would take 22 damage.
Right now it already punishes facing a high roller early because if you don't, then you get saved by damage cap - and it means players can make certain greedy lines I just think it should end on turn 10 or at 6 players etc
@@TheMirksta Let me preface my statements with the context that I regularly finish each season somewhere in the 9k-11k MMR range so I'm playing in lobbies with the top players in the game. At higher ranks, play patterns are highly optimized so the strength of boards can snowball out of hand way quicker if people find the key pieces to a comp early. There are some core design issues in Battlegrounds that need to be addressed with regards to damage calculations. For example, facing Brann (hero) on turn 4 and losing a fight without killing their Brann (minion) results in way more damage than you would expect to take on that turn, especially if they leverage said Brann to make a massive taunt that you can't counter in the early game to maximize the chances of the unit surviving. I recall countless games when the damage cap was a flat 15 and got lifted the moment the first player was eliminated from the lobby. At that point, I had the misfortune of fighting a high roller who had hit several other opponents for 15 and simply due to my unlucky matchup RNG, I wind up getting 7th place while I went into the fight with 30+ health... That's not fun. The key thing that needs to change is the overall game balance as there are some comps/heroes that go out of bounds too fast to keep up with if you're not given the resources to compete. However, balancing a game with 108 heroes, 260 minions (not including buddies...), and 58 spells is not a trivial task. I'm not saying that the damage cap is a perfect solution, far from it. But if the patient is bleeding out on the table and you don't have the tools or skills needed to immediately operate, wrapping up the wound to slow the bleeding is better than letting them die.
@@TinyPowerfuIFists Oh I'm absolutely with you that the game is better with the cap than without it, but it still fails to protect players enough at certain points (taking 15 still feels very bad on the first 15 dmg turn) and protects players too much at other points, like the Nguyen in this video taking only 15 and surviving when they get completely destroyed on turn 11. Ideally I think the devs should try to adjust the caps more dynamically based on the meta, but I understand that it is a lot of effort to do that, and they prefer to just nerf cards and change armor instead.
Prince Loc sleeps with everyone
What?
@@blaze9480 didn’t you read the comment?
Yes… yes he has a point
@@brodyalden apparently, I did, yeah. I just thought a royalty murloc would be more selective
That's pretty progressive for a monarch
6:49 - Since some math was requested, here's a quick breakdown on the odds of hitting one specific minion or one specific spell with Boundless Potential on T5 with the tribes in this game (Demon, Elemental, Mech, Murloc, Pirate):
There are 27 minions on T5: 4 Demons, 3 Elementals, 5 Mechs (includes Kangor), 3 Murlocs, 4 Pirates, and 9 neutrals that are always in.
There are 9 spells on T5: 8 that are always in and Corrupted Cupcakes due to demons being in the lobby.
With 27 minions, there's a 1 in 9 chance of getting offered one specific minion. This was calculated by determining the number of outcomes where the minion isn't offered and then taking the inverse. In this case 26/27 * 25/26 * 24/25 -> 24/27 -> 8/9 -> (inverse) 1/9.
With 9 spells, there's a 1 in 3 chance of getting offered one specific spell using the same method as above. 8/9 * 7/8 * 6/7 -> 6/9 -> 2/3 -> (inverse) 1/3.
If you're looking for just one minion on the tier as opposed to one spell, choosing to discover a spell is 3 times as likely as being offered the minion. Incidentally, you need to be looking for 4 possible T5 minions before the odds overtake looking for a single spell as it then becomes 1154/2925 which is ~39.5%.
In summary, using Boundless Potential to discover a spell will get you what you're looking for more often than a minion but the lower odds for discovering the minion could still be worth it if there's a specific unit that you really need to power your comp. 🤓
EDIT: Adding more math to answer A1V4R0cs's question in the replies.
So that math gets way more complicated but here's my best ballpark based on some quick data gathering from the Battlegrounds card list on the official Blizzard site.
With the tribes in, here are the breakdowns of minions per tier:
T1: 12, T2: 20, T3: 23, T4: 24, T5: 29, T6: 20
Since there are 16 copies of each T1, 15 copies of each T2, 13 copies of each T3, 11 copies of each T4, 9 copies of each T5, and 7 copies of each T6, this gives us these totals per tier:
T1: 192, T2: 300, T3: 299, T4: 264, T5: 261, T6: 140
To calculate perfectly, we would need to account for all of the minions taken out of the pool due to being in play or in other players hands but that way lies madness so we'll just assume the full pool since that should get us close enough.
So... Now that we have all that data, we can first determine the odds of rolling T5 units in the shop. I won't list out all the math, but my calculations are based on 261 T5 units from a total pool of 1316.
0 T5 units: 33.05%
1 T5 unit: 41.04%
2 T5 units: 20.28%
3 T5 units: 4.99%
4 T5 units: 0.61%
5 T5 units: 0.03%
With those odds, you'll see 0.9916 T5 units per shop on average. Then we can consider that over the course of 3 shops, you would expect to see 2.97 T5 units on average. So, this comes out very close to the 3 units that you are guaranteed to see when using the spell to discover one. However, while it cost 3 gold to see 3 shops (assuming you had to pay for each), you would still need to spend an additional 3 gold to buy a minion if you found it so it would cost 6 gold in total. On the other hand, by playing the spell to discover a minion, you've already paid the 3 gold up front and you're guaranteed some minion in hand so it's a net cost of 2 if you wind up selling whatever you found.
Taking all of that into consideration, the math dictates that it's statistically better to discover a minion with the spell rather than rolling for it.
You can pretty much always use Brann or rodeo performer if you miss
That's a useful analysis! However, I thing Dog was asking what has a higher probability of finding an specific T5 minion: using the spell or rolling 3 times. If you feel like doing it, let me know because I'm curious :D
I'm just commenting here to get a notification if he really does the calculation
@@A1V4R0cs Added the requested calculations as an edit to the main comment. They're probably a little off since I rushed them, but they should be close enough.
@@TinyPowerfuIFists You are such a beast! Thank you for your awesome work internet stranger ^_^
27 minions on Tier 5, so to hit 1 minion that you want, you have a 3/27, or 1/9 chance, 11.11%. This chance changes slightly depending on the tribes in the lobby since different tribes have different numbers of minions on Tier 5. For instance, elementals have 3, demons have 4, mechs have 5, and beasts have 6 (also changes based on dual tribes, such as mech horse).
The chance to recoup gold depends on the tribes in the lobby and whether or not you plan to keep a minion on board for a turn to get more money, such as keeping djinni on board for the deathrattle. It also depends on if you lost your last fight (blue shell) or if you have a murloc already on board (primalfin). How much money you get back also depends on what they give you (especially djinni, darkcrest, and rodeo performer). It basically becomes too complex for me to want to get into, but the number of minions that can give you money back is relatively small.
On the other hand, the calculation of chance per roll is easier. There's an average of 1014.5 cards in the pool at tier 5. You see 5 cards per roll, and there are 9 copies of each tier 5 card in the pool. Considering there's a thousand cards in the pool, the number that your opponents may or may not have doesn't change the chances much unless your desired 5 star is missing a few copies. Otherwise, it's a 4.44% chance per roll to see it, or 12.7% chance (because of combinatorial math, it's a 87.3% chance to NOT see your card) in 3 rolls.
You technically have a higher chance to see the card you want in 3 rolls, but you can always sell the minion from the boundless potential for an extra roll, which would mean that you would have a 15.1% chance (combinatorial math) to see it. Bonus if you happen to get a good minion to keep or a minion that will give extra gold. So it's probably going to be better to buy a boundless potential for a tier 5 minion, especially in lobbies with more instant gold-generating 5-drops (elementals, dragons, naga, while murlocs depend on board state, demons if you get tardy traveller and roll into a good spell). Plus a decent amount of 5 drops generate (or have at least a chance to generate) more gold by next turn (prime mate, djinni, darkcrest, holo rover, moonsteel juggernaut).
TL;DR: Boundless potential is always better unless you are board locked. Rolling 3 times has a 12.7% chance while boundless potential has a 11.1% chance, but buying and using boundless, then selling a bad result or replacing a bad minion on your board with the new 5 drop (or just getting more money from the 5 drop and using that), then rolling will put you at a 15.1% chance to get the 5-drop you want.
P.S. You can't simply add the percentages of individual rolls or discoveries together because you can see the same card multiple times. Otherwise, rolling 23 times would give a 100% chance of seeing the card. Or, in a similar vein, you would see every 6-drop spell (6 in total) by casting boundless potential 2 times, every single time. But that obviously isn't the case.
Not true, there’s actually a 0% chance to hit the minion I want on tier 5. 😔 but this is great, thanks!
The sound of dog eating dogs will haunt my dreams
Dog. First off, don’t let some amateur psychologist get in your head. Second, I will expand on what I just said by also lending an assist. Your “marketable skill” is not in playing a random popular video game. Yes you are very good but I would expect that from anyone who trains as hard as you do. No. Your skill is taking these runs and creating a marketable product with them using a measurable metric. Sort of like an author. Create content. Edit content. Publish content. Get paid for content. Rinse and repeat.
Plus this is a highly randomized game. Yes you just get lucky sometimes but your deep understanding of game theory can be developed to further improve the experience for everyone. Nah king. You are doing great. You are smart, loyal, passionate, and dedicated. A good man.
Loc Prince Beetle build incoming as predicted by dogdog!
13:10 this was actually so funny
That last yelled reminded me of Asmodai LOL
Who eats 5 hardboiled eggs in a sitting besides maybe a villain in a Charles Dickens novel?
Emmett in the Twilight movies
5 hardboiled eggs is 10 deviled eggs. Totally worth it.
Only 5? Meh
Good night everyone ❤
Had a round where I pulled two loc princess eyes, and both of them then pulled another. Ended up with all of them being over 1kand the two golden ones being over 2.5k was a crazy round.
Can someone tell me which overlay he uses? Thank you
"I'm not doing the math, ya fuckin kidding me?" What a legend
Hi dogdog, which tracker overlay is that?
Its the HS Replay decktracker:)
@CombatClient thank you!
Goodnight sweet (Loc) Prince
Prince Loc quip kills me everytime
In the last two fights, Loc Prince did a total of 7 damage lol
Never been this early to any video before, anyway time to fall asleep to prince loc
"I'm scared of dying"
Well, aren't we all ;) ?
Prince Loc fits in snug blanket
RIP mecherel (you will not be missed)
damn video just opens with "what if dead internet theory" like okay isn't it bad enough living it
the ingenuity of that donator that thinks he has to apply for a regular job if hearthstone shuts down is crazy
A little known fact but slightly older eggs peel easier than fresher eggs.
Good night wish u all sweet dreams 😴
One egg at a time just a little salt
Can you make the outro but uiiaiauiiuai version? Thanks 👍
really got a MaSsan reference in 2025
ASMR boiled egg eating in my ear. One of the grossest infuriating sounds ever. Please never again i beg you.
Sleep well guys
nice
Peel all and make deviled eggs!!!
If dudes not chomping into the mic he's clicking a billion times
you chewing into the mic is annoying af
Yes please!
Yea this was unwatchable
at this point you should change your name to locloc
Kristinaaaa
what about balls
HEEEEEEEEEY!
trust me u are a bot xD
kinda hate damage cap ngl seeing that nguyen have no board on turn 11 but force live on 3 to steal MMR from a player who had a real board is tough
Think of it this way. Without the damage cap, individual placement becomes heavily tied to matchup RNG. If there's one player in the lobby that snowballs out of control early and can deal 30+ damage while everyone else would deal a max of 10-15 if they win, is it fair to punish the player who had the misfortune of facing the high roller early?
@@TinyPowerfuIFists There must be a better way to go about it though, there shouldn't be such a low limit of 15 damage for as long as there is right now. You're right that it's good to punish those who face the high roller by lesser damage, but the way it is now rewards certain thresholds by too much.
It's super common to see players outlive where they should place simply because they have 16+ or 31+ health, so they can get utterly destroyed in fights but can only take 15. Someone getting barely beaten in terms of stats, by one 5* minion that's low health from a tier 5 player for example, takes 10 which is almost as much damage as the other player which isn't really fair on turn 11+ imo.
I think you could make a soft cap past say turn 10 and halve the amount of damage dealt by players once their damage goes over 15 when the cap is still 'active', so if I beat you by 30* of damage while cap is on, you would take 22 damage.
Right now it already punishes facing a high roller early because if you don't, then you get saved by damage cap - and it means players can make certain greedy lines
I just think it should end on turn 10 or at 6 players etc
@@TheMirksta Let me preface my statements with the context that I regularly finish each season somewhere in the 9k-11k MMR range so I'm playing in lobbies with the top players in the game. At higher ranks, play patterns are highly optimized so the strength of boards can snowball out of hand way quicker if people find the key pieces to a comp early.
There are some core design issues in Battlegrounds that need to be addressed with regards to damage calculations. For example, facing Brann (hero) on turn 4 and losing a fight without killing their Brann (minion) results in way more damage than you would expect to take on that turn, especially if they leverage said Brann to make a massive taunt that you can't counter in the early game to maximize the chances of the unit surviving.
I recall countless games when the damage cap was a flat 15 and got lifted the moment the first player was eliminated from the lobby. At that point, I had the misfortune of fighting a high roller who had hit several other opponents for 15 and simply due to my unlucky matchup RNG, I wind up getting 7th place while I went into the fight with 30+ health... That's not fun.
The key thing that needs to change is the overall game balance as there are some comps/heroes that go out of bounds too fast to keep up with if you're not given the resources to compete. However, balancing a game with 108 heroes, 260 minions (not including buddies...), and 58 spells is not a trivial task. I'm not saying that the damage cap is a perfect solution, far from it. But if the patient is bleeding out on the table and you don't have the tools or skills needed to immediately operate, wrapping up the wound to slow the bleeding is better than letting them die.
@@TinyPowerfuIFists Oh I'm absolutely with you that the game is better with the cap than without it, but it still fails to protect players enough at certain points (taking 15 still feels very bad on the first 15 dmg turn) and protects players too much at other points, like the Nguyen in this video taking only 15 and surviving when they get completely destroyed on turn 11.
Ideally I think the devs should try to adjust the caps more dynamically based on the meta, but I understand that it is a lot of effort to do that, and they prefer to just nerf cards and change armor instead.