The New Geopolitics of Alliances: Rethinking Transatlantic Engagement with "Global Swing States"

Introduction
Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer
Senior Vice President, Geostrategy
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Speakers
Amb. Len Ishmael
Visiting Distinguished Fellow, GMF South
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Dr. Garima Mohan
Senior Fellow, GMF Indo-Pacific
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
Director, Ankara Office
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Moderator
Dr. Ian Lesser
Vice President; Managing Director, GMF South; and Director, Brussels Office, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Russia’s war against Ukraine has accelerated the erosion of the post-1945 global order and heightened the strategic competition between the United States and China. A full-scale reconfiguration of alliances is underway, forcing other actors worldwide to reposition themselves in relation to changing dynamics in geostrategic competition.
Many governments, however, prefer not to choose sides but to maintain fluid relations to address, as their national interests dictate, the numerous issues impacting the international order and to take advantage of opportunities that emerge from great power competition. These “global swing states”, analyzed in a new GMF publication, “Global Swing States and the New Geopolitics of Alliance”, to be published on May 2, seek to increase their global influence by varying cooperation patterns with the United States, Europe, China, and Russia, and within multilateral institutions and regional groupings.
Recent political, economic, and security crises call for rethinking US and European engagement with key actors in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific that have become increasingly relevant interlocutors for tackling global challenges. A better understanding by the transatlantic community of the swing states’ strategic interests and priorities is essential to reinforce necessary cooperation, especially when geopolitics remains in its current precarious state.
“Global Swing States and the New Geopolitics of Alliance” explores how six swing states-Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey-determine their preferences for international cooperation in the areas of security, trade, and technology. This event uses that analysis to delve into the impact of the war in Ukraine and US-China strategic competition on the relationships between the six swing states and the transatlantic community. What opportunities and challenges do the United States and Europe face in improving their relationships with swing states?