Cut to the chase, Di Martino Booth was at the Fed when the policies of the last 15 year went into effect. She understands the strength and weakness of the policy. Her fears of 15 year old policy mistakes are currently manifesting in what we are seeing play out today. I'm going with Di Martino Booths analysis. Bottom line, the proof is in the eating of the pudding, time will tell. Minsky might suggest that safety is cheapest when risk is highest. 6 month T-bill is sitting at 5.50%. Housing market is as over priced as its been in modern history. Commercial real estate is being walked away from by the biggest firms in the world. Equities P/E ratios are so off the scale as to make the stock market nothing but a casino. Never forget, when Janet Yellen tells you the everything is doing great, it's time to duck and cover.
@@kimberiysmarketstrategy I think the fed knows what they are doing .I understand the trend is deflation,in certain areas selected by the function of Mr Market.The happy days will be replaced by the certain control of the tax ,the government using it's power to control the consumer like in COVID.Most people 99 percent do not study history,have no clue that the useful idiots,(the rich and frivolous stars,the plastic arrogant American Consumer.)Are functioning at the privilege of the zero,air, money and mathematically,air money is owned and controlled by the banks, government,and world money.We believe we control and own the air...we are like the proverbial sheep,dancing to their music 🎵 believing we own the 🎵 and we own the function.We believe the present is ours,the government is ours.We believe we can control the Future,We Believe we can control our American Illusion,our zero Air economy is owned by the 100 years,500 years,etc.Our money can only continue if the fed needs to keep faith in our air, money for their purposes,not our self-indulgent infant,dreams.The Fed is going to bring respect to our money.They will use their tools the replace the Fantasy 😇 Rich,with the Functional Rich.While we make or break our country.The Functional Rich are laughing at the entitled citizens worldwide...We as people should prepare like the stoic rich,to buy at discount for OUR Function our future.The current fake game is almost at its end.
I retired from teaching after thirty years, and I compliment you on preparing your viewers with a definition of terms prior to the interview. That's how it should be done: you don't know if your viewers understand those terms, so a quick review makes the interview more comprehensible to them. You get an A+!
Not just a matter of understanding them, but just hearing another person explain it for the 12th time continues to add color and nuance to my understanding of how all the levers are pulled. I've been reading about this stuff since 2012 and I still found value in the definitions. Keep it up!
How are you able to retire from a teachers salary after 30 years please tell me I’ve been working working for 25 years and retirement savings aren’t there
Completely disagree with Danielle (great mind) regarding her opinion that “putting money in the hands of those with the highest propensity to dispense,” shot up inflation. The fact is that at that time, the Fed released the largest amounts at one time EVER! It’s not where the money went… it the amount of money that was dispensed. She’s defending a huge mistake. And that mistake was based on politics. She’s a great economic mind, great point of view but that was a cover up that I pointed out here. I would have liked to see some push back on that and see how she responds.
Place the "COVID-19" incident on top of that... now we have endless corruption and billions of taxpayer money through the CARES Act have vanished and no one seems to care... who's pockets that money lined, it's just done.
@@fidenciodeleon8924 do you know how much money was printed at this time? Have you seen the chart of M1 money printed over time? Do you know that such a chart looks like a hockey stick? … meaning that M1 printing for the last 50 years has been a gradual and very slight increase… however, during the pandemic, money printing spiked so high that the chart looked LITERALLY like a hockey stick! ALSO, do you know that this chart USED TO BE published by the Fed and has been taken down when the chart went viral? Really, are you aware of these facts? Now that you know them, would you still believe that the AMOUNT of money that was printed had nothing to do with inflation? My only words for you are: COME ON MAN!!!
You have NO fkn idea on how to read the market or an economy. Dems wrecked the supply chains while at the same time, the treasury AND the fed printed like drunken sailors. The increase in wages, the treasury putting money into consumers hands and the fed putting it into mortgage backed securities! This isn't rocket science!
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
Yup, this is exactly why our founders put us on the gold/silver standard and were adbmately against a central bank. (well most of the founders anyways)!
"as little respect as I have for the vast majority of PHDs". Never met a PHD who was better at something than someone who spent the same amount of time doing that "something".
No, it didn't, at least not this time. This was caused by the irresponsibility of the government. This is not a bank issue. This is not a banking issue, this is a supply and demand issue. If you take the whole country and sideline everyone with no idea when they can get back to work production is going to go way down. The problem as always is the government doesn't know how to stay out of the way.
@@stevenporter9114 This is a Fed issue, they have FUBAR our monetary system since 1913, as well as the gov bullying the world and taking us to war constantly. They are one in the same.
The Governors of the Federal Reserve is a government agency; however, the twelve Federal Reserve Banks do not come under the purview of the federal government. The Federal Reserve Banks are considered quasi federal government. I know this because when I went to work for a federal government agency, my time at a Federal Reserve Bank would not transfer because it is not considered a federal government agency.
People not vacation renting is also due to a boom in RV sales. They're buying them for camping and vacation as well as full-time nomad living. A surprising number of people in that last category now.
Home values will continue to fall well beyond a decade. Too many people locked in record low rates, for RECORD HIGH COSTS. Prices only need to decline about -10% for catastrophic results. Risky HELOCS, Airbnb busts, and decade long value declines, combined with commercial real estate in the red, across the board. Foreclosures are only now starting to uptick. Supply is increasing, NATIONALLY. This bottom won't show until the mid 2030's at the earliest. -35% when the dust settles. God bless, America.
Quantitative easing (QE) are monetary transfers from the FED directly to large banks. It is not fiscal policy; it is monetary policy. Americans got little out of QE, except inflation. Fiscal spending would have been some sort of New Deal jobs program where we build projects like the Hoover dam and rail, healthcare- not make Robber Barons richer by handing over money bags!
The problem, if you want to call it that, is that most of todays RE gurus and experts have only experienced 2 decades of interest rates lowering (‘refi til ya die’ crowd) and they think this will always be. Cash flowing is not so simple anymore! It takes pain to bring back these deals again.
Danielle respectfully is off the mark on this one. This economy has been traveling down an unknown path that no economist can predict. The fed has been scrambling since 2021. No Central Banking arm can stabilize a capitalistic economy, greed will always prevail over temporary economic instability.
It's hard to buy into the idea of shadow inventory when you are sitting on your couch.. when you drive the streets, block by block and count them, it becomes more convincing. That's even before you count the number of banks paying fines on holding foreclosed inventory longer than they're supposed to.
That exact same thing happened in 2008..banks holding REO's for a better price on them. It all worked out great for the big banks. Yep..they prospered on our slave backs.
Why invite someone on your show when your mind is already made up that what you are preaching is correct and what your guest says is wrong? DDB has been around for a while and I've been watching her for years --- trust me, she is spot on
Because it’s a good discussion, I actually think the hosts should have challenged the guest more, but I understand it’s not meant to be a debate it’s an interview
@@hanson4035absolutely. I was really surprised that Booth just gave antecdoted about how dire the market was when asked for data. The data (vacancies, home prices, home inventory, rent rates) all show no such thing as a crash right now. What Booth was saying was so blatantly in denial of current data I had to keep asking myself if she was trying to sell gold coins or something. What’s her angle, because it sure wasn’t representing the actual market right now.
Tim Cook has taken a fifty percent off from his salary and he is still getting millions. You can manipulate the market by playing your own stocks when earning is low but when the recession hits, he has planned his retirement sometime in 2025 to 2028.
@@stopato5772 If it were that simple we would all have done it. Problem is that these huge conglomerates have their fingers in thousands of businesses. Almost impossible to decipher who owns what.
Investor basics at play here. Texas has always had extreme swings related to energy pricing. When there is money to be made everyone is aggressive and think this time it won’t end. Other markets have their strong and soft points as well. Remember to just buy quality. You can always sell quality at some price if necessary, and won’t go asking.
What are the numbers in dollars to the PPP “loan” programs? Business loans turned into free money probably far outweighs dollars given to individual consumers. I’m doubtful money provided to consumers contributed to inflation more than excessive corporate profits and PPP loans. Anyone?
Can you imagine being so greedy that you meet God one day and He asks you why you were renting your home every night to facilitate sex trafficking, and your only excuse is "because I needed an extra five hundred bucks a month..." There are so many more honorable ways to make an extra income, it's sad that people are choosing airbnb out of all the other options out there that could 10x their money.
This interview was eye opening. Danielle demonstrates a much deeper understanding of macroeconomics than the interviewers. Laughing off shadow inventory because you don’t understand it was both distasteful and wrong. New home builders will hold completed houses off the market if they are trying to bundle together an investor sale or they simply have too many of the same model just like new car dealers do during slow sales periods. Dealerships often move their shadow inventory to a back portion of their yard or even an unmarked secured nearby lot. Builders will mark completed homes as sold when they often are not. I buyers do it too and both can be proven. Acknowledge your bias and good luck with your channel.
I think the Fed wants to do what she said, to normalize rates again, and that means keeping them high longer to leave wiggle room. BUT the central bank and politics go hand in hand. Yes the Fed is independent of the government, but only because the government allows them to. Therefore politics will always influence part of the Feds decision.. I think when stuffs starts to really break in the economy, the Fed will be forced to pivot and lower rates. But not back to zero again. That type of thought makes me believe that a correction in residential real estate will happen, not a 2008 crash. Commercial real estate however, will get a 2008 type crash 😅
How much of retail stores closing is due to people not shopping IN the stores any longer? I know it’s been years since I stepped foot in a mall. I do most of my shopping “online”. I’ve cut wayyyy back on shopping and the shopping I did in 2023, I put on credit cards. I’ve decided for 2024, I’m not spending any money on anything I don’t NEED because everything is too expensive and I can’t afford it. I can barely afford food. When I was looking for a house to purchase, I realized I couldn’t afford the monthly cost of the house without more than half of my pay going toward the house payment, and when I brought this up to the lender, he tried to assure me that it would be OK - HOW is that OK? Then, the lender dropped me- probably because he realized I was right
Rite Aid is the latest chain planning to close stores, joining a list that includes Amazon and Walmart.• Bed Bath & Beyond closed 896 locations amid bankruptcy - the most of any retailer on the list.• At least 20 major retailers have said they're closing US stores in 2023, amounting to 2,847 locations. This is part of an article from business insider
How do you encourage growth in, say, manufacturing as the US on shores from China? That will create demand. Do we want to discourage that? The duel mandate is ridiculous.
We are getting poorer precisely because a narrow elite has organized society for their own benefit at the expense of the vast mass of people. Political power has been narrowly concentrated, and has been used to create great wealth for those who possess it.
You asked what happens with rates if unemployment does go down at the end of the show. Easy, if the Fed lets up too soon there is market euphoria and inflation pops up like a cork. Then the Fed has to chase inflation. Remember, the Fed is trying to break the Fed Put AND inflation is sticky. Even with a significant economic downturn, if Powell flinches too soon, all pain will be for naught, they have to start over with hikes and there’s more chance of something fundamental breaking. Powell is playing chicken.
Danielle - Just not seeing what you are seeing…In my market, home prices remain very sticky high, there is no inventory, and homes sell instantly. It is still white hot. Sure, transactions are down, but this housing market wont break. New Teslas everywhere, restaurants and bars packed, dont have to pay student loan debt…🤷🏻♂️
Your seeing the frogs boiling without them knowing there being boiled. The reason you see it is because your not being boiled. Think about what she said, they can't tell the frogs they are being boiled because if they do all hell breaks lose and they have to stop QT. This lady is sharp, BREAK THE FED PUT!
@@realestatemindset I hear you brother, but I got a feeling this weak FED will be turning off the gas sooner and faster causing the boiling water to cool down too soon
@vitalsigns6403 What if they are really being strong? What if the lie is, that they are weak? We know already Jerome is lying to us and the yield curves are deeply inverted. The fact is they have been doing QT and we are still at this restrictive state. Let's not forget about the lags. Let's also not forget about the very very important fundamental breaking home equity run up. I'm feeling super empowered my dude. I got my money out and I'm happy on the sidelines, stacking cash and increasing my purchasing power. This is so crazy Vital. Do you own a tesla out of curiosity?
Editing a very smart person does carry a risk. I wanted to hear all she had to say. I agree with her that Powell is using the inaccurate but positive BLS data as a cover to raise interest rates. She is also correct about Congress's dual mandate
She actually made a lot of sense and had evidence for her main bullet points. Danielle definitely knows her stuff and knows what's going on. No rose colored glasses. Speaking the truth on finances.
49:35 I think you have that backwards. The institutional investors were a major part of what was driving those price hikes. Lowered incentive to hold onto those properties drives prices down and long term, stable homeowners stabilize those prices. These institutional investors just handed over their pearls in exchange for a quick buck. I am praying, so badly, that these investors don't get bailed out but we shall see, like your guest said. We'll see just how much Powell can get away with before institutional investors start throwing their hissy fits.
I can tell you that around Houston there is a lot of “shadow” inventory. I work with unkept houses that neighbors complain about and the amount of complaints about empty houses not being maintained is increasing
As of May 2023, M2 is reported as $20.805T. It seems improbable that inflation will get back to 2% until M2 gets back to around $19T where the long term trend seems to be currently pointing. The trick will be to get M2 back to the increasing trend as it merges back to the long term trend rate. See the 10-year chart of M2.
Yes fearmongerers and doomers are using the M2 "growth rate" declines(worst since the depression narrative) to drive fear. They fail to see the stock of M2 growth trajectory pre-covid as you are doing w your good comment. Thx
It was not long ago that Danielle said that the Fed would lower rates, just like they have done before. Soft landing is in the news. My half acre in Preston Hollow is going up in value. Entry level homes becoming more available will not affect the lux home market, just like inflation grew through the 70;s as the stock and bond markets lost, just like today. The idea that housing prices would go up during a pandemic was historically unheard of, yet they rose nearly 50% in two years. People simply move from risk to home and are glad for it. When offices in Downtown Dallas become cheaper, housing will boom in Near N. Dallas, as lawyers and financial firms move in from the boondocks to get close to the action.
Job loss is so much less consequential when you can work from home. Also, if you have a pre pandemic priced home on a 3% mortgage, you can work at Walmart and not lose your home.
I think policies should be in place for institutional investors they ruin affordability for a community they’re the ones that drive up home prices as well as cash buyers from outside.
@@oleopathic She's too adamant about her positions. She comes off as "it must be this way" because I know more than you. As others have said, there are more cogs in the wheel than just industrial / commercial re, war, migration, climate change that is also destroying economies and individual families wealth - homes lost to natural disasters, can't get insurance in a lot of places, and if you can, costs are criminal.
People in Florida are paying on average $6k for homeowners - national avg is $1700. And not everyone in FL lives on the coast, we are are 50 miles inland and pay $3k for a 2,000 sq. ft. home. DeSantis sucks. Instead of wasting taxpayer money flying all over the world, sending desperate folks on plane rides and fighting with Disney, needs to get his head out his ass and do something for the people who elected him. Farmers Ins., also just pulled out of Fla. Lots of issues out there.
You know what's really tragic about this? It will happen "again' in about 20 years, and again, and again, and again... "Hell is empty...it's right here." -to paraphrase Shakespeare
It seems to me that subjugation is far more expensive. Look at the plight of occupied Ukraine! Military readiness is pricy, and wars keep the tools sharp and prune out the ever creeping tendrils of bureaucracy that can choke even the most prepared military forces.
Respect to Ms. Martino Booth for her dedication and high interest in doing good. I have far less enthusiasm for her incomprehension of the fact of the Fed as cartelization mechanism for a kept banking and financial industry. In short, a blight upon the people's money is a blight upon the people.
I'm sure Danielle is intelligent, but she's the Alex Jones of the FED. You want to believe she's not co-opted, but there's that 10-20% of disinfo that you must allow for.
I believe that what you have all missed is the main message. that kind of fictive fraudulent type of economy where the fed is printing money gives it to the economy that sends it abroad to buy real things, cannot, and will not exist any longer. entire countries are departing from the dollar, and nobody wants fake money for real goods anymore. that's what Powell understands, and the clueless speculators refuse to admit. they just want this incredible fraud of the last 15 years to go on forever. no need t work, no need to be productive. let's just print and take advantage of the planet. well, that scam has worked for a few years, but people woke up, and finally saw it for the massive fraud that it is. if you believe that USA can defraud the globe forever, than keep on dreaming.
To comment on not seeing all the kids move back to their parents house, about 80% of all of my peers ages 20-30 have moved back to live with their parents and I am so jealous. I was renting at a large apartment complex and all of my neighbors were 40-50 year old men with dogs. I asked my wife where are all the young people my age? and she said, "They are all living with their parents." Everyone is talking about how consumer spending is so strong but we've all had to move back to our parent's house and pick up an extra job. I have a newly married friend who makes a ton of money and they recently moved into her parent's house to "save up for a down payment" but they still just go to the Bahamas every month.
Cannot control inflation now with debt at $34trill. Severe stagflation is next and heavy layoffs. A rising unemployment rate will give us 2008-2011 all over again, except worse. Foreclosures and a falling stock market.
Great insights on the housing market! The housing affordability crisis is indeed a significant issue. The suggestion of spending more than 30% of income on housing might be a reality for some, but it's not a sustainable solution. It's concerning to see people resorting to second jobs or cutting back on essentials to afford housing. However, these shifting dynamics present potential opportunities for those ready to invest. It's evident that the Federal Reserve's policies have far-reaching implications for the housing market, making real estate a journey of long-term investment. Amid these fluctuations, I've ventured into new investment avenues. Thanks to the guidance of a mentor, Mrs Tammy Brockman, my portfolio has seen significant growth in just 5 weeks.These are indeed turbulent times, but as the saying goes, fortune favors the bold!
I came across this name last week and this is not the first time I am hearing of this name and her amazing skills but I have no idea how to get to her.
I believe the AirBnB folks Danielle mentioned who will be negatively affected by this upcoming "market crash" are the ones who bought in certain areas that will likely ban STRs. As Kathy mentioned, not all STR investors will be in the hole when this recession worsens. Rob and Tony still seem to be doing fine and they have rather large portfolios in STRs.
@@anniealexander9616 I sure as heck did. $500 for a cleaning fee for 3 nights, for 3 adults, who leave the place cleaner than they found it. No thanks.
This information is very informative to exactly what’s going on. I’ve been researching this area of the monetary system for years. Just downloaded the book to my audiobook library 😊 AWESOME INTERVIEW!! Good Work DB!
💕💕💕Please find out what the Fed does with the excess money of the COSG of one hundredd USD bill .23 cents compared to the printing or digitally making from NOTHING? Do a show on it, ty LOVE to OUR WORLD
Will excessive credit card debts lead to defaults, which will lead to foreclosures? I feel Student Loans going back into repayment won't cause many foreclosures due to protections being put in place.
Power corrupts. Double-speak is alive and well. There is no “problem” only elements of the “game.” If you already have enough, you can avoid the troublesome nature of finding “meaning.”
I can see commercial due to telework and some of AirBNB but the for non-commercial real estate - still not seeing it. Anything under $300k is still moving like hotcakes in states like California. A third of deals in real estate is still all cash.
I wouldn't call it a contrarian view since this guest has the most credible economics background, more so of any guest ever on the show! She was actually an advisor to the Dallas FED Chairman. Now of course no one is infallible but to have an contrarian view to an expert with more experience and data than you is just arrogant of the show hosts imo.
@@hanson4035 Thats true, I misplaced a word there. The meat and potatoes of my reply is simply that, they got an expert on economics, asked for the analysis but still have an opposing view point, but without the opposing data. Either delusion or arrogance imo.
I am a Real Estate Broker. I am wondering where this "Shadow Inventory" really is. Yes, there are agents and brokers that keep "Pocket Inventory" which by the way is illegal in my state, but a shadow inventory I just don't see. While I agree with Danielle that the Fed needs to be stripped down to it's studs to begin a rebuild, I'm worried that in that stripping down and during the rebuild there will be a lot of middle incomes lost. ( I'm a half "Creature from Jekyll Island" believer.) My question is who would do the rebuild? The Government? When has the Gov done anything like this right? The Fed itself? Maybe, they are probably the most knowledgeable but - I'm not sure I would trust their rebuild (Does anyone else think they would try to build in more power?) The banks themselves? I think they might be scarier than the Gov. While the Fed would be the most likely choice there should be some other checks in-place. And if anyone thinks it's the Congress they need a history lesson.
Get some popcorn, sit back and wait till we are in a Depression. That shadow real estate will be out of the shadows by mid to end of 2024 and definitely by 2025
Just found this channel...great interview! This is the first interview with DB that I have listened to that made the most sense to me. I do think its possible to have higher rates longer with low unemployment if Jerome Powell holds fast to his plan because it seems to me to this corrective action by JP is a slow moving train and it may take some time for it to arrive at its destination.
Her insight on the fed is invaluable. What she says about Powell makes sense and was great to hear. However, Her generalized broad swipe approach to real estate is a typical bankers point of view who watches the stock market, equities, bond market and inflation then applies the theory to real estate. The show hosts tried to hint to this when talking locations and Danielle references it but naysays it to continue her theory. I’ve looked at the str inventory crash data and the number of shadow inventory that’s str’s isn’t enough to crash the whole real estate market. Can it heavily inactive certain markets that don’t have local job markets support the housing? Of course. As a mortgage banker who focused so heavily on the broad equity and bond market I used to do the same. It doesn’t mean it’s right.
If I can’t afford rent or a mortgage I also can’t afford a vacation. I also can’t afford other items that I would normally purchase at the stores so that’s what she’s talking about because multiply me by thousands of people. I think most people like me kept spending in 2023, but now that 2024 is here we are going to cut back on spending because we just don’t have the money. We put everything on credit cards last year.
Fascinating listening to her. Stories have abounded of Airbnb rentals cash flowing like water down a dam spillway, and others are saying the short term rentals are going to make it. Airbnb went up from a low of $103.74 0n 5/31 to a close today of $138.09. I am inclined to agree that if we ever get into the recession predicted for the last 6 months, that there is going to be a lot of single family homes wanting an owner. Having worked in real estate in small (2 to 4 unit) plexes, the vast majority of owners were in it for the long term and knew the reality that it was not a "get rich quick" game. The same cannot be said across the board for those in the single family home short term rental business. The smart ones put money aside, and I am not betting on the ratio of smart ones to the get rich crowd. Some large cities may be moving to ban short term rentals, but the country is vast and certainly not all of them are in such a quandary. On the other hand, the layoffs in high tech have certainly taken a bite out of rental market. My bet may not be a sudden crash, but a longer term problem that will not solve itself, any more than office rentals.
Home prices peaked for the year a few weeks ago. Peaked at lower level than 2022. Even a ridiculously low level of inventory could not make for new highs. See Attom data.
In 1913, Colonel Edward Mandell House helped to pick the charter members of the original Federal Reserve Board. Edward Mandell House (originally “Huis” which became “House”) was born July 26, 1858 in Houston, Texas. He became active in Texas politics and served as an advisor to President Woodrow Wilson, particularly in the area of foreign affairs. House functioned as Wilson's chief negotiator in Europe during the negotiations for peace (1917-1919), and as chief deputy for Willson at the Paris Peace Conference. He died on March 28, 1938 in New York City. Edward and his father had friends in the Ku Klux Klan. The Klan dispensed vigilante justice after the Civil War. In 1880 a new legitimate group was in charge of dispensing justice in Texas -- the Texas Rangers. Many of the Texas Rangers were members of the Klan. Edward was the new master. Edward gained their loyalty by stroking their egos. Edward would use his money and influence to try and make them famous. Edward eventually inherited the Texas Ku Klux Klan. Edward Mandell House helped to make four men governor of Texas: James S. Hogg (1892), Charles A. Culberson (1894), Joseph D. Sayers (1898), and S. W.T. Lanham (1902). After the election House acted as unofficial advisor to each governor. Hogg gave House the title "Colonel" by promoting House to his staff. Edward wanted to control more than Texas, Edward wanted to control the country. Edward would do so by becoming a king maker instead of a king. Edward knew that if he could control two or three men in the Senate, two or three men in the House; and the President, he could control the country. Edward would influence the candidate from behind the scenes. The people would perceive one man was representing them, when in reality; an entirely different man was in control. House didn't need to influence millions of people; he need only influence a handful of men. Edward would help establish a secret society in America that would operate in the same fashion -- the Council on Foreign Relations. Edward Mandell House was instrumental in getting Woodrow Wilson elected as President. Edward had the support of William Jennings Bryan and the financial backing of the House of Rockefeller's National City Bank. Edward became Wilson's closest unofficial advisor. Edward Mandell House and some of his schoolmates were also members of Cecil Rhodes Round Table group. The Round Table Group, the back bone of the Secret Society, had four pet projects, a graduated income tax, a central bank, creation of a Central Intelligence Agency, and the League of Nations. Between 1901 and 1913 the House of Morgan and the House of Rockefeller formed close alliances with the Dukes and the Mellons. This group consolidated their power and came to dominate other Wall Street powers including: Carnegie, Whitney, Vanderbilt, Brown-Harriman, and Dillon-Reed. The Round Table Group wanted to control the people by having the government tax people and deposit the peoples money in a central bank. The Group would take control of the bank and therefore have control of the money. The Group would take control of the State Department and formulate government policy, which would determine how the money was spent. The Group would control the CIA which would gather information about people, and script and produce psycho-political operations focused at the people to influence them to act in accord with Round Table Group State Department policy decisions. The Group would work to consolidate all the nations of the world into a single nation, with a single central bank under their control, and a single International Security System. Some of the first legislation of the Wilson Administration was the institution of the graduated income tax (1913) and the creation of a central bank called the Federal Reserve. An inheritance tax was also instituted. These tax laws were used to rationalize the need for legislation that allowed the establishment of tax-exempt foundations. The tax-exempt foundations became the link between the Groupmember's private corporations and the University system. The Group would control the Universities by controlling the sources of their funding. The funding was money sheltered from taxes being channeled in ways which would help achieve Round Table Group aims. Edward Mandell House had this to say in a private meeting with President Woodrow Wilson: “[Very] soon, every American will be required to register their biological property in a national system designed to keep track of the people and that will operate under the ancient system of pledging. By such methodology, we can compel people to submit to our agenda, which will effect our security as a chargeback for our fiat paper currency. Every American will be forced to register or suffer being unable to work and earn a living. They will be our chattel, and we will hold the security interest over them forever, by operation of the law merchant under the scheme of secured transactions. Americans, by unknowingly or unwittingly delivering the bills of lading to us will be rendered bankrupt and insolvent, forever to remain economic slaves through taxation, secured by their pledges. They will be stripped of their rights and given a commercial value designed to make us a profit and they will be none the wiser, for not one man in a million could ever figure our plans and, if by accident one or two should figure it out, we have in our arsenal plausible deniability. After all, this is the only logical way to fund government, by floating liens and debt to the registrants in the form of benefits and privileges. This will inevitably reap to us huge profits beyond our wildest expectations and leave every American a contributor to this fraud which we will call “Social Insurance.” Without realizing it, every American will insure us for any loss we may incur and in this manner, every American will unknowingly be our servant, however begrudgingly. The people will become helpless and without any hope for their redemption and, we will employ the high office of the President of our dummy corporation to foment this plot against America.”
And the alternative to the system you describe -if you didn't just make up those quotes - is what? If House really did create a system of wage slaves it was actually so much better than the historical models of actual slavery (the ancient world) , feudalism, tenant farming, or early industrial era 12 hours workdays 6 days a week with no social support. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that money is a discipline and very abstract concept and tool imposed on human civilization. St. Paul may have thought it was the "root of all evil", but he seems to have ignored the numerous other roots of "all evil" that don't use money. He seems to have ignored the fact that barter means, if-you have nothing to trade, all that leaves you is your body to trade for the food to feed it. Even "evil" funny money is better than that. Social support is a gift of the angels, actually. Other than the fact that House was a racist pig with an obsession with his own and other people's bodies - he had some rather enlightened ideas. House the racist pig died along with his dubious genes - but at least some of his better ideas survived. Isaac Newton had a head full of nonsense too most of the time but was sharp about some key concepts. BTW - do you have any idea what the number after your name indicates? They just appeared a few weeks ago with no explanation. I write long winded comments too sometimes but you actually get readers. I don't like to look and prefer not to know or I'd write to be popular.
@@paulrosa6173 i would urge you to look at tithing in old testament, it is not what we have been told it is, you will see it was a one time deal, not to be carried on through the ages, the tenth was not required of the new school, it even says it in new test, look closely see if it is revealed to you, as in the days of Abraham where a tenth of the spoils were required, save that tenth and give it where you are moved to give it, directly where you feel it is needed, this cuts out the middlemen who have become corrupted
If you're going to edit her, why even post it. The other host (Kathy) was not aware of the federal reserve bank's capabilities or of past situations with past chairs (IE: Volcker). If you are unaware of a subject, don't act as if you are aware, just let the speaker present their ideas. Why have the speaker present if you are going to interject with your own uneducated ideas on a topic you brought an expert on for? Equivalent of hiring a pro chef, and then correcting the chef on their cooking.
I agree. It is OK to disagree w her, but have some stones and challenge her DURING the interview not behind her back AFTER she is gone. I won't watch this channel again as they lost my trust. Dude needs to get a backbone.
The first lady was right on point. These two are laughing because they are clueless. Already a lot of new families have moved back with their parents. They are going to stay there permanently. Insurance is unaffordable, and a lot of older condo owners are going to be hit with assessments for the insurance, repairs, and inspections. If you own a condo, you get upset, but if you own 10 units, you end up losing your pants. Has anyone noticed the number of new storage facilities being built? There is nothing to be optimistic about. Cash out, get a farm loan, and move your family there. You can grow organic food, and protect your children from the media propaganda that wants to neuter the population. Putin is unstable and being cornered, I mean the entire world is playing with fire, and these two dimwits acting as if everything is going to be fine. The nuclear arsenal doesn't come in a stick shift. 80 percent of remote computer jobs will be gone soon. EBT does not pay for your mortgage. I don't see any normalization until 2031.
Well, I am listening, but this "inflation" is due in large part to supply chain disruption. AND, in my opinion, low unemployment is partly due to a high disability rate (Jay Dowd's analysis) and some voluntary unemployment.
Better to put it in the so called “job creators” hands so they can bid up the price on real assets and equities lmao!! The government knew they couldn’t just bailout Wall Street and Big Business like 08’ while leaving the consumer “people” helpless and out of work so they finally handed out money to everybody. Either way it’s horrible on both ends!!
To simplify this: The Fed has been giving away free money for way too long and is now trying to reel it back in by raising interest rates. They’re trying to cover their own ass at the expense of everyone else. The Fed is responsible for the current inflation. The CARES Act, which is the largest upward transfer of wealth in human history, accelerated inflation. It’s not because people got a whopping grand total of $1,800 3 years ago. It’s corporate/wealthy greed and irresponsibility fueled by a government that has been subsidizing and giving free money to their stupidity.
I dun think so. Economy does not work under hyperinflation. Ray dalios changing world order is telling us the world will reset that include economy (we are at the final stage of resetting btw). True for past 500 years cos its human innate behavior. Good luck if u think u can still buy high and sell higher lmao.
Having been in Real Estate since 1972, I completely agree with Di Martino. Get your powered dry. If you want an option. To get into Real Estatebuy Tax Liens. Sell any Robert now with a 6.5% interest rate or higher. Why you will probably loose double your interest rate in value.
Another looming risk is demograhic. We'll have the most adults alive at the same time in America for another couple of decades. After that, we shrink. Not so suddenly, there are plenty of homes to go around. I wonder what that does to the folks holding 30-year mortgages at the end of the line.
Not here in CA. The immigration policy has caused a major problem of new homeless. Larger homes are being bought at any price, with auction style selling. I guess it depends on where you are. Our new influx of citizens are somehow something that most people don’t consider. I’ve been waiting to buy , just last week I went on mls. There was one home for sale. It was 50% above market and they said they were taking the highest offer. I’m not sure that’s even alllowed. I’m still holding out for hope.
Everywhere. Including California. As a 10-year resident of San Francisco, I assure yiu homelessness has little to do with migrants, and everything to do with abdication of responsibility by local governments and unchecked progressivism.
Cut to the chase, Di Martino Booth was at the Fed when the policies of the last 15 year went into effect. She understands the strength and weakness of the policy. Her fears of 15 year old policy mistakes are currently manifesting in what we are seeing play out today. I'm going with Di Martino Booths analysis. Bottom line, the proof is in the eating of the pudding, time will tell. Minsky might suggest that safety is cheapest when risk is highest. 6 month T-bill is sitting at 5.50%. Housing market is as over priced as its been in modern history. Commercial real estate is being walked away from by the biggest firms in the world. Equities P/E ratios are so off the scale as to make the stock market nothing but a casino. Never forget, when Janet Yellen tells you the everything is doing great, it's time to duck and cover.
Agreed
She a shill still. “Fed=good, they just dont run it the way Id like.”
So what was her analysis telling you?
@@kimberiysmarketstrategy I think the fed knows what they are doing .I understand the trend is deflation,in certain areas selected by the function of Mr Market.The happy days will be replaced by the certain control of the tax ,the government using it's power to control the consumer like in COVID.Most people 99 percent do not study history,have no clue that the useful idiots,(the rich and frivolous stars,the plastic arrogant American Consumer.)Are functioning at the privilege of the zero,air, money and mathematically,air money is owned and controlled by the banks, government,and world money.We believe we control and own the air...we are like the proverbial sheep,dancing to their music 🎵 believing we own the 🎵 and we own the function.We believe the present is ours,the government is ours.We believe we can control the Future,We Believe we can control our American Illusion,our zero Air economy is owned by the 100 years,500 years,etc.Our money can only continue if the fed needs to keep faith in our air, money for their purposes,not our self-indulgent infant,dreams.The Fed is going to bring respect to our money.They will use their tools the replace the Fantasy 😇 Rich,with the Functional Rich.While we make or break our country.The Functional Rich are laughing at the entitled citizens worldwide...We as people should prepare like the stoic rich,to buy at discount for OUR Function our future.The current fake game is almost at its end.
@@kimberiysmarketstrategy. 👀
I retired from teaching after thirty years, and I compliment you on preparing your viewers with a definition of terms prior to the interview. That's how it should be done: you don't know if your viewers understand those terms, so a quick review makes the interview more comprehensible to them. You get an A+!
Post Hole Diggers?
Not just a matter of understanding them, but just hearing another person explain it for the 12th time continues to add color and nuance to my understanding of how all the levers are pulled. I've been reading about this stuff since 2012 and I still found value in the definitions. Keep it up!
How are you able to retire from a teachers salary after 30 years please tell me I’ve been working working for 25 years and retirement savings aren’t there
@@stldweller I rob casinos with my crew of colorful, devil-may-care friends in our spare time.
@@Falconlibrary thank you that makes sense.
Completely disagree with Danielle (great mind) regarding her opinion that “putting money in the hands of those with the highest propensity to dispense,” shot up inflation. The fact is that at that time, the Fed released the largest amounts at one time EVER!
It’s not where the money went… it the amount of money that was dispensed. She’s defending a huge mistake. And that mistake was based on politics.
She’s a great economic mind, great point of view but that was a cover up that I pointed out here. I would have liked to see some push back on that and see how she responds.
Place the "COVID-19" incident on top of that... now we have endless corruption and billions of taxpayer money through the CARES Act have vanished and no one seems to care... who's pockets that money lined, it's just done.
She is right but 90% of the people is wrong like you 😅
@@fidenciodeleon8924 do you know how much money was printed at this time? Have you seen the chart of M1 money printed over time? Do you know that such a chart looks like a hockey stick? … meaning that M1 printing for the last 50 years has been a gradual and very slight increase… however, during the pandemic, money printing spiked so high that the chart looked LITERALLY like a hockey stick!
ALSO, do you know that this chart USED TO BE published by the Fed and has been taken down when the chart went viral?
Really, are you aware of these facts? Now that you know them, would you still believe that the AMOUNT of money that was printed had nothing to do with inflation?
My only words for you are: COME ON MAN!!!
So you don't believe that the rich were the ones that got the most money? Think again.
You have NO fkn idea on how to read the market or an economy. Dems wrecked the supply chains while at the same time, the treasury AND the fed printed like drunken sailors. The increase in wages, the treasury putting money into consumers hands and the fed putting it into mortgage backed securities! This isn't rocket science!
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
wow. I thought I heard all his quotes but damn.
Yup, this is exactly why our founders put us on the gold/silver standard and were adbmately against a central bank. (well most of the founders anyways)!
Gosh, at least there's no homeless problem in the US. That woud be a real indicator the ol' Tommy J. was right.
Forefather had foresight
"as little respect as I have for the vast majority of PHDs".
Never met a PHD who was better at something than someone who spent the same amount of time doing that "something".
Same. Phd in Business is practically a meme
PHD. Fix the roof, plumbing and roof yourself.
I’m not falling for all of this BS.
The FED created this freaking mess we are in, period.
You're cuckoot, haha
The fed the corrupt senitors and the President are good cop bad cop into slavery CBDC. Abolish unconstitutional fed!
No, it didn't, at least not this time. This was caused by the irresponsibility of the government. This is not a bank issue. This is not a banking issue, this is a supply and demand issue. If you take the whole country and sideline everyone with no idea when they can get back to work production is going to go way down. The problem as always is the government doesn't know how to stay out of the way.
@@stevenporter9114 This is a Fed issue, they have FUBAR our monetary system since 1913, as well as the gov bullying the world and taking us to war constantly. They are one in the same.
Government owned by corporations because of lobbying
The Governors of the Federal Reserve is a government agency; however, the twelve Federal Reserve Banks do not come under the purview of the federal government. The Federal Reserve Banks are considered quasi federal government. I know this because when I went to work for a federal government agency, my time at a Federal Reserve Bank would not transfer because it is not considered a federal government agency.
People not vacation renting is also due to a boom in RV sales. They're buying them for camping and vacation as well as full-time nomad living. A surprising number of people in that last category now.
Home values will continue to fall well beyond a decade. Too many people locked in record low rates, for RECORD HIGH COSTS. Prices only need to decline about -10% for catastrophic results. Risky HELOCS, Airbnb busts, and decade long value declines, combined with commercial real estate in the red, across the board. Foreclosures are only now starting to uptick. Supply is increasing, NATIONALLY. This bottom won't show until the mid 2030's at the earliest. -35% when the dust settles. God bless, America.
Quantitative easing (QE) are monetary transfers from the FED directly to large banks. It is not fiscal policy; it is monetary policy. Americans got little out of QE, except inflation. Fiscal spending would have been some sort of New Deal jobs program where we build projects like the Hoover dam and rail, healthcare- not make Robber Barons richer by handing over money bags!
It's a shit show. This lady sounds like she's making tons of money through REITS. This is how they squeeze every penny out of you.
They do jobs programs when there are no jobs-but that wasn’t the case. “Help Wanted” signs were all over the place. They’re trying to go there tho
The problem, if you want to call it that, is that most of todays RE gurus and experts have only experienced 2 decades of interest rates lowering (‘refi til ya die’ crowd) and they think this will always be. Cash flowing is not so simple anymore! It takes pain to bring back these deals again.
Danielle respectfully is off the mark on this one. This economy has been traveling down an unknown path that no economist can predict. The fed has been scrambling since 2021. No Central Banking arm can stabilize a capitalistic economy, greed will always prevail over temporary economic instability.
It's hard to buy into the idea of shadow inventory when you are sitting on your couch.. when you drive the streets, block by block and count them, it becomes more convincing. That's even before you count the number of banks paying fines on holding foreclosed inventory longer than they're supposed to.
Who imposes fines on them?
That exact same thing happened in 2008..banks holding REO's for a better price on them. It all worked out great for the big banks. Yep..they prospered on our slave backs.
Why invite someone on your show when your mind is already made up that what you are preaching is correct and what your guest says is wrong? DDB has been around for a while and I've been watching her for years --- trust me, she is spot on
Because it’s a good discussion, I actually think the hosts should have challenged the guest more, but I understand it’s not meant to be a debate it’s an interview
@@hanson4035absolutely. I was really surprised that Booth just gave antecdoted about how dire the market was when asked for data. The data (vacancies, home prices, home inventory, rent rates) all show no such thing as a crash right now. What Booth was saying was so blatantly in denial of current data I had to keep asking myself if she was trying to sell gold coins or something. What’s her angle, because it sure wasn’t representing the actual market right now.
finally! I read someone that feels just as I do. They had their feable minds made up! The rest of us know the voice of reality when we hear it!
I think this interview scared the mess out of these hosts.
Host were speechless!
Agreed, the cope was palpable
What about reigning in CEO salaries, or at least measuring them? Not just unemployment rates that don't capture what's really going on.
The only way you can moderate CEO salaries is through the market - don't buy their products.
Tim Cook has taken a fifty percent off from his salary and he is still getting millions. You can manipulate the market by playing your own stocks when earning is low but when the recession hits, he has planned his retirement sometime in 2025 to 2028.
That's like trying to fish a penny from a storm drain while your wallets being lifted.
Now that's a great idea ... for a country like Venezuela or Cuba. Should we regulate everyone else's salaries too? Thanks for sharing.
@@stopato5772 If it were that simple we would all have done it. Problem is that these huge conglomerates have their fingers in thousands of businesses. Almost impossible to decipher who owns what.
Investor basics at play here. Texas has always had extreme swings related to energy pricing. When there is money to be made everyone is aggressive and think this time it won’t end. Other markets have their strong and soft points as well. Remember to just buy quality. You can always sell quality at some price if necessary, and won’t go asking.
What are the numbers in dollars to the PPP “loan” programs?
Business loans turned into free money probably far outweighs dollars given to individual consumers.
I’m doubtful money provided to consumers contributed to inflation more than excessive corporate profits and PPP loans.
Anyone?
Can you imagine being so greedy that you meet God one day and He asks you why you were renting your home every night to facilitate sex trafficking, and your only excuse is "because I needed an extra five hundred bucks a month..." There are so many more honorable ways to make an extra income, it's sad that people are choosing airbnb out of all the other options out there that could 10x their money.
She has a superior way of sharing knowledge, what an awesome guest and expert!
This interview was eye opening. Danielle demonstrates a much deeper understanding of macroeconomics than the interviewers. Laughing off shadow inventory because you don’t understand it was both distasteful and wrong. New home builders will hold completed houses off the market if they are trying to bundle together an investor sale or they simply have too many of the same model just like new car dealers do during slow sales periods. Dealerships often move their shadow inventory to a back portion of their yard or even an unmarked secured nearby lot. Builders will mark completed homes as sold when they often are not. I buyers do it too and both can be proven. Acknowledge your bias and good luck with your channel.
34:00 passive aggression. I don't think Danielle gets invited back. The truth hurts.
She always like that if you disagree. She subtly call you an idiot and doesnt back it up.
I disagree properties are not staying vacant. She might be correct about commercial but is wrong on residential
I think the Fed wants to do what she said, to normalize rates again, and that means keeping them high longer to leave wiggle room. BUT the central bank and politics go hand in hand. Yes the Fed is independent of the government, but only because the government allows them to. Therefore politics will always influence part of the Feds decision.. I think when stuffs starts to really break in the economy, the Fed will be forced to pivot and lower rates. But not back to zero again. That type of thought makes me believe that a correction in residential real estate will happen, not a 2008 crash. Commercial real estate however, will get a 2008 type crash 😅
How much of retail stores closing is due to people not shopping IN the stores any longer? I know it’s been years since I stepped foot in a mall. I do most of my shopping “online”. I’ve cut wayyyy back on shopping and the shopping I did in 2023, I put on credit cards. I’ve decided for 2024, I’m not spending any money on anything I don’t NEED because everything is too expensive and I can’t afford it. I can barely afford food. When I was looking for a house to purchase, I realized I couldn’t afford the monthly cost of the house without more than half of my pay going toward the house payment, and when I brought this up to the lender, he tried to assure me that it would be OK - HOW is that OK? Then, the lender dropped me- probably because he realized I was right
We are not going into a recession because we never came out of the last one. We are headed to a DEPRESSION
We are headed into an election year. They are goin to have to keep things strong even if they have to fake it in order to get by
This goes all the way back to 07-12 and it is getting worse because of covi and China investors
@@hermanrogers1325 I'm not worried about China, they have about 10 more years before they go the way of Japan
Exactly!
Did Danielle really answer Kathy's question at 34:01 as to where she gets her data?
I don’t think so. I was curious to know myself. I guess you have to subscribe to her newsletter.
Rite Aid is the latest chain planning to close stores, joining a list that includes Amazon and Walmart.• Bed Bath & Beyond closed 896 locations amid bankruptcy - the most of any retailer on the list.• At least 20 major retailers have said they're closing US stores in 2023, amounting to 2,847 locations.
This is part of an article from business insider
How do you encourage growth in, say, manufacturing as the US on shores from China? That will create demand. Do we want to discourage that? The duel mandate is ridiculous.
Get a piece of cheap land. Pitch a heavy duty tent, put in a hand pump well, grow your own food, etc..
New World Order will take all that away from you.
Being able to watch this for free BLOWS MY MIND!!!
This is a very correct and insightful comment.
Doom
Gloom
World is ending
Maybe
However, your comment.
Excellent interview. I think this was as basic and high level as an interview could be. I think she should come back once a month at least thru 2024.
Absolutely not.
We are getting poorer precisely because a narrow elite has organized society for their own benefit at the expense of the vast mass of people. Political power has been narrowly concentrated, and has been used to create great wealth for those who possess it.
You asked what happens with rates if unemployment does go down at the end of the show. Easy, if the Fed lets up too soon there is market euphoria and inflation pops up like a cork. Then the Fed has to chase inflation. Remember, the Fed is trying to break the Fed Put AND inflation is sticky. Even with a significant economic downturn, if Powell flinches too soon, all pain will be for naught, they have to start over with hikes and there’s more chance of something fundamental breaking. Powell is playing chicken.
Not agreeing on job openings either. There is a chronic shortage in many skill sets - engineering being one. Crazy competition for engineers
?? "Jobs" are all owned by The Hive.
Jobs are for girls.
We are all slaves.
In fact, I don't have a resume because "I own my own job."
Leverage should be reduced . If you are putting 50% down and financing the rest and get an 8 cap you should be ok .
Danielle - Just not seeing what you are seeing…In my market, home prices remain very sticky high, there is no inventory, and homes sell instantly. It is still white hot. Sure, transactions are down, but this housing market wont break. New Teslas everywhere, restaurants and bars packed, dont have to pay student loan debt…🤷🏻♂️
Your seeing the frogs boiling without them knowing there being boiled. The reason you see it is because your not being boiled. Think about what she said, they can't tell the frogs they are being boiled because if they do all hell breaks lose and they have to stop QT. This lady is sharp, BREAK THE FED PUT!
@@realestatemindset I hear you brother, but I got a feeling this weak FED will be turning off the gas sooner and faster causing the boiling water to cool down too soon
@vitalsigns6403 What if they are really being strong? What if the lie is, that they are weak? We know already Jerome is lying to us and the yield curves are deeply inverted. The fact is they have been doing QT and we are still at this restrictive state. Let's not forget about the lags. Let's also not forget about the very very important fundamental breaking home equity run up. I'm feeling super empowered my dude. I got my money out and I'm happy on the sidelines, stacking cash and increasing my purchasing power. This is so crazy Vital. Do you own a tesla out of curiosity?
"We need The Fed...?"
Like a viper in bed.
One of the best episodes yet. Great guest and insight views. Please invite her back in 6 months.
Dave and Kathy overlapping with Danielle just made my week. Great episode and worth a second listen
Editing Danielle was quite apparent and made following her train of thought confusing. Don't edit your guests it makes your channel look shady.
Yeah it was annoying.
Editing a very smart person does carry a risk. I wanted to hear all she had to say. I agree with her that Powell is using the inaccurate but positive BLS data as a cover to raise interest rates. She is also correct about Congress's dual mandate
She actually made a lot of sense and had evidence for her main bullet points. Danielle definitely knows her stuff and knows what's going on. No rose colored glasses. Speaking the truth on finances.
That was very odd indeed
49:35 I think you have that backwards. The institutional investors were a major part of what was driving those price hikes. Lowered incentive to hold onto those properties drives prices down and long term, stable homeowners stabilize those prices. These institutional investors just handed over their pearls in exchange for a quick buck. I am praying, so badly, that these investors don't get bailed out but we shall see, like your guest said. We'll see just how much Powell can get away with before institutional investors start throwing their hissy fits.
You spend a lot of time talking about the Creature from Jeckyll Island? LOL!
Thank you.
@36:47, when she says 30 A, what is she talking about??
My god man why haven't you interviewed this lady long time ago her insight is crazy valuable 😳 eye straight open!! So much clarity!!
Danielle has her own show too.
@@kimberiysmarketstrategywhat's the show name ?
I can tell you that around Houston there is a lot of “shadow” inventory. I work with unkept houses that neighbors complain about and the amount of complaints about empty houses not being maintained is increasing
The host has a good composure. A brilliant show!
As of May 2023, M2 is reported as $20.805T. It seems improbable that inflation will get back to 2% until M2 gets back to around $19T where the long term trend seems to be currently pointing. The trick will be to get M2 back to the increasing trend as it merges back to the long term trend rate. See the 10-year chart of M2.
Yes fearmongerers and doomers are using the M2 "growth rate" declines(worst since the depression narrative) to drive fear. They fail to see the stock of M2 growth trajectory pre-covid as you are doing w your good comment. Thx
It was not long ago that Danielle said that the Fed would lower rates, just like they have done before. Soft landing is in the news. My half acre in Preston Hollow is going up in value. Entry level homes becoming more available will not affect the lux home market, just like inflation grew through the 70;s as the stock and bond markets lost, just like today. The idea that housing prices would go up during a pandemic was historically unheard of, yet they rose nearly 50% in two years. People simply move from risk to home and are glad for it. When offices in Downtown Dallas become cheaper, housing will boom in Near N. Dallas, as lawyers and financial firms move in from the boondocks to get close to the action.
Job loss is so much less consequential when you can work from home. Also, if you have a pre pandemic priced home on a 3% mortgage, you can work at Walmart and not lose your home.
I think policies should be in place for institutional investors they ruin affordability for a community they’re the ones that drive up home prices as well as cash buyers from outside.
DDB is awesome. Very smart and level headed with her analysis and in laymen terms. Hard not to learn something by watching her interviews.
She a shill
@@quietlikewhy ?
@@quietlikeI had this same gut feeling about her as well, something is off
@@oleopathic She's too adamant about her positions. She comes off as "it must be this way" because I know more than you. As others have said, there are more cogs in the wheel than just industrial / commercial re, war, migration, climate change that is also destroying economies and individual families wealth - homes lost to natural disasters, can't get insurance in a lot of places, and if you can, costs are criminal.
People in Florida are paying on average $6k for homeowners - national avg is $1700. And not everyone in FL lives on the coast, we are are 50 miles inland and pay $3k for a 2,000 sq. ft. home. DeSantis sucks. Instead of wasting taxpayer money flying all over the world, sending desperate folks on plane rides and fighting with Disney, needs to get his head out his ass and do something for the people who elected him. Farmers Ins., also just pulled out of Fla. Lots of issues out there.
You know what's really tragic about this? It will happen "again' in about 20 years, and again, and again, and again... "Hell is empty...it's right here." -to paraphrase Shakespeare
"Hell is empty and all the devils are here."--William Shakespeare if he visited Wall Street circa 2023
Funny when you compare the military budget to any other expense. Constant war is very very expensive.
It seems to me that subjugation is far more expensive. Look at the plight of occupied Ukraine! Military readiness is pricy, and wars keep the tools sharp and prune out the ever creeping tendrils of bureaucracy that can choke even the most prepared military forces.
Constant war is VERY PROFITABLE!
Awesome DM as usual
Respect to Ms. Martino Booth for her dedication and high interest in doing good. I have far less enthusiasm for her incomprehension of the fact of the Fed as cartelization mechanism for a kept banking and financial industry. In short, a blight upon the people's money is a blight upon the people.
I'm sure Danielle is intelligent, but she's the Alex Jones of the FED. You want to believe she's not co-opted, but there's that 10-20% of disinfo that you must allow for.
I believe that what you have all missed is the main message. that kind of fictive fraudulent type of economy where the fed is printing money gives it to the economy that sends it abroad to buy real things, cannot, and will not exist any longer. entire countries are departing from the dollar, and nobody wants fake money for real goods anymore. that's what Powell understands, and the clueless speculators refuse to admit. they just want this incredible fraud of the last 15 years to go on forever. no need t work, no need to be productive. let's just print and take advantage of the planet. well, that scam has worked for a few years, but people woke up, and finally saw it for the massive fraud that it is. if you believe that USA can defraud the globe forever, than keep on dreaming.
To comment on not seeing all the kids move back to their parents house, about 80% of all of my peers ages 20-30 have moved back to live with their parents and I am so jealous. I was renting at a large apartment complex and all of my neighbors were 40-50 year old men with dogs. I asked my wife where are all the young people my age? and she said, "They are all living with their parents."
Everyone is talking about how consumer spending is so strong but we've all had to move back to our parent's house and pick up an extra job. I have a newly married friend who makes a ton of money and they recently moved into her parent's house to "save up for a down payment" but they still just go to the Bahamas every month.
Cannot control inflation now with debt at $34trill. Severe stagflation is next and heavy layoffs. A rising unemployment rate will give us 2008-2011 all over again, except worse. Foreclosures and a falling stock market.
Great show. Thx!
Why is it all the FED's fault? it is Congress that won't stop spending.
one of the things wrong with the data is the 30% of the workforce that disappeared from the market during the pandemic. That figure from Ed Dowd.
Exactly
Problem with using U3 measure to fool the public but actually unemployment is much worse. Yellen knows this well. That is why she is so worried.
Danielle is brilliant.
Great insights on the housing market! The housing affordability crisis is indeed a significant issue. The suggestion of spending more than 30% of income on housing might be a reality for some, but it's not a sustainable solution. It's concerning to see people resorting to second jobs or cutting back on essentials to afford housing. However, these shifting dynamics present potential opportunities for those ready to invest. It's evident that the Federal Reserve's policies have far-reaching implications for the housing market, making real estate a journey of long-term investment. Amid these fluctuations, I've ventured into new investment avenues. Thanks to the guidance of a mentor, Mrs Tammy Brockman, my portfolio has seen significant growth in just 5 weeks.These are indeed turbulent times, but as the saying goes, fortune favors the bold!
I came across this name last week and this is not the first time I am hearing of this name and her amazing skills but I have no idea how to get to her.
Tammy Brockman is a trader with a different approach entirely, I can't figure out how she does it, her strategies work the magic
So exciting to see others who made move. I’m currently on my 7th trade with her and my port folio has increased..
Never missing out on an opportunity to grow my portfolio this year..
I can bet Tammy Brockman is the best in the market now…. Very reliable and her analysis are always accurate.
I can listen to her all day. Great interview!
I believe the AirBnB folks Danielle mentioned who will be negatively affected by this upcoming "market crash" are the ones who bought in certain areas that will likely ban STRs. As Kathy mentioned, not all STR investors will be in the hole when this recession worsens. Rob and Tony still seem to be doing fine and they have rather large portfolios in STRs.
People are choosing hotels rather than Airbnb due to crazy cleaning fees and unreasonable list of chores.
@@anniealexander9616 I sure as heck did. $500 for a cleaning fee for 3 nights, for 3 adults, who leave the place cleaner than they found it. No thanks.
It doesn’t take many sellers to crash markets.
Can't individuals QT if they just start paying off their debt, personal and otherwise?
This information is very informative to exactly what’s going on. I’ve been researching this area of the monetary system for years. Just downloaded the book to my audiobook library 😊 AWESOME INTERVIEW!! Good Work DB!
💕💕💕Please find out what the Fed does with the excess money of the COSG of one hundredd USD bill .23 cents compared to the printing or digitally making from NOTHING? Do a show on it, ty LOVE to OUR WORLD
Will excessive credit card debts lead to defaults, which will lead to foreclosures? I feel Student Loans going back into repayment won't cause many foreclosures due to protections being put in place.
Power corrupts. Double-speak is alive and well. There is no “problem” only elements of the “game.” If you already have enough, you can avoid the troublesome nature of finding “meaning.”
How interesting to listen to someone that is in the know. Knowledge is power!
Employee retention tax credit?!! Wasn;t aware of this. 1M businesses have claimed it. Is this why jobs have held up?!!! Artificially?!! That is scary
Great interview!
The best interviews are the ones where hosts push back, not just nod their heads. I couldn't finish it...
@@ask_why000I agree. They were too mesmerized by her to push back. Awful interview
I can see commercial due to telework and some of AirBNB but the for non-commercial real estate - still not seeing it. Anything under $300k is still moving like hotcakes in states like California. A third of deals in real estate is still all cash.
Enjoyed the contrarian view it will be interesting to see it all play out
I wouldn't call it a contrarian view since this guest has the most credible economics background, more so of any guest ever on the show! She was actually an advisor to the Dallas FED Chairman. Now of course no one is infallible but to have an contrarian view to an expert with more experience and data than you is just arrogant of the show hosts imo.
@@stldwellerit is a contrarian view lol whether something is contrarian does not indicate anything about credibility either way
@@hanson4035 Thats true, I misplaced a word there. The meat and potatoes of my reply is simply that, they got an expert on economics, asked for the analysis but still have an opposing view point, but without the opposing data. Either delusion or arrogance imo.
‘’You’ll own nothing. And you’ll be happy’
I am a Real Estate Broker. I am wondering where this "Shadow Inventory" really is. Yes, there are agents and brokers that keep "Pocket Inventory" which by the way is illegal in my state, but a shadow inventory I just don't see. While I agree with Danielle that the Fed needs to be stripped down to it's studs to begin a rebuild, I'm worried that in that stripping down and during the rebuild there will be a lot of middle incomes lost. ( I'm a half "Creature from Jekyll Island" believer.) My question is who would do the rebuild? The Government? When has the Gov done anything like this right? The Fed itself? Maybe, they are probably the most knowledgeable but - I'm not sure I would trust their rebuild (Does anyone else think they would try to build in more power?) The banks themselves? I think they might be scarier than the Gov. While the Fed would be the most likely choice there should be some other checks in-place. And if anyone thinks it's the Congress they need a history lesson.
Get some popcorn, sit back and wait till we are in a Depression. That shadow real estate will be out of the shadows by mid to end of 2024 and definitely by 2025
Housing will continue to increase in price. A slight dip will not do much.
Just found this channel...great interview! This is the first interview with DB that I have listened to that made the most sense to me. I do think its possible to have higher rates longer with low unemployment if Jerome Powell holds fast to his plan because it seems to me to this corrective action by JP is a slow moving train and it may take some time for it to arrive at its destination.
You would be wise to listen to her. AND. Love that you are free to question it:)
Excellent interview.
I had this playing while taking a nap. She dropped so many knowledge bombs it literally woke me up
Her insight on the fed is invaluable. What she says about Powell makes sense and was great to hear.
However, Her generalized broad swipe approach to real estate is a typical bankers point of view who watches the stock market, equities, bond market and inflation then applies the theory to real estate.
The show hosts tried to hint to this when talking locations and Danielle references it but naysays it to continue her theory.
I’ve looked at the str inventory crash data and the number of shadow inventory that’s str’s isn’t enough to crash the whole real estate market. Can it heavily inactive certain markets that don’t have local job markets support the housing? Of course.
As a mortgage banker who focused so heavily on the broad equity and bond market I used to do the same. It doesn’t mean it’s right.
If I can’t afford rent or a mortgage I also can’t afford a vacation. I also can’t afford other items that I would normally purchase at the stores so that’s what she’s talking about because multiply me by thousands of people. I think most people like me kept spending in 2023, but now that 2024 is here we are going to cut back on spending because we just don’t have the money. We put everything on credit cards last year.
Fascinating listening to her. Stories have abounded of Airbnb rentals cash flowing like water down a dam spillway, and others are saying the short term rentals are going to make it. Airbnb went up from a low of $103.74 0n 5/31 to a close today of $138.09. I am inclined to agree that if we ever get into the recession predicted for the last 6 months, that there is going to be a lot of single family homes wanting an owner. Having worked in real estate in small (2 to 4 unit) plexes, the vast majority of owners were in it for the long term and knew the reality that it was not a "get rich quick" game. The same cannot be said across the board for those in the single family home short term rental business. The smart ones put money aside, and I am not betting on the ratio of smart ones to the get rich crowd. Some large cities may be moving to ban short term rentals, but the country is vast and certainly not all of them are in such a quandary. On the other hand, the layoffs in high tech have certainly taken a bite out of rental market. My bet may not be a sudden crash, but a longer term problem that will not solve itself, any more than office rentals.
Home prices peaked for the year a few weeks ago. Peaked at lower level than 2022. Even a ridiculously low level of inventory could not make for new highs. See Attom data.
Straightforward and provocative. The honesty is palpable. Learned a lot!
Daniel you are so experienced and so beautiful!!! Always a pleasure listening to you!!!
In 1913, Colonel Edward Mandell House helped to pick the charter members of the original Federal Reserve Board.
Edward Mandell House (originally “Huis” which became “House”) was born July 26, 1858 in Houston, Texas. He became active in Texas politics and served as an advisor to President Woodrow Wilson, particularly in the area of foreign affairs. House functioned as Wilson's chief negotiator in Europe during the negotiations for peace (1917-1919), and as chief deputy for Willson at the Paris Peace Conference. He died on March 28, 1938 in New York City.
Edward and his father had friends in the Ku Klux Klan. The Klan dispensed vigilante justice after the Civil War. In 1880 a new legitimate group was in charge of dispensing justice in Texas -- the Texas Rangers. Many of the Texas Rangers were members of the Klan. Edward was the new master. Edward gained their loyalty by stroking their egos. Edward would use his money and influence to try and make them famous. Edward eventually inherited the Texas Ku Klux Klan.
Edward Mandell House helped to make four men governor of Texas: James S. Hogg (1892), Charles A. Culberson (1894), Joseph D. Sayers (1898), and S. W.T. Lanham (1902). After the election House acted as unofficial advisor to each governor. Hogg gave House the title "Colonel" by promoting House to his staff.
Edward wanted to control more than Texas, Edward wanted to control the country. Edward would do so by becoming a king maker instead of a king. Edward knew that if he could control two or three men in the Senate, two or three men in the House; and the President, he could control the country.
Edward would influence the candidate from behind the scenes. The people would perceive one man was representing them, when in reality; an entirely different man was in control. House didn't need to influence millions of people; he need only influence a handful of men. Edward would help establish a secret society in America that would operate in the same fashion -- the Council on Foreign Relations.
Edward Mandell House was instrumental in getting Woodrow Wilson elected as President. Edward had the support of William Jennings Bryan and the financial backing of the House of Rockefeller's National City Bank. Edward became Wilson's closest unofficial advisor.
Edward Mandell House and some of his schoolmates were also members of Cecil Rhodes Round Table group. The Round Table Group, the back bone of the Secret Society, had four pet projects, a graduated income tax, a central bank, creation of a Central Intelligence Agency, and the League of Nations.
Between 1901 and 1913 the House of Morgan and the House of Rockefeller formed close alliances with the Dukes and the Mellons. This group consolidated their power and came to dominate other Wall Street powers including: Carnegie, Whitney, Vanderbilt, Brown-Harriman, and Dillon-Reed. The Round Table Group wanted to control the people by having the government tax people and deposit the peoples money in a central bank. The Group would take control of the bank and therefore have control of the money. The Group would take control of the State Department and formulate government policy, which would determine how the money was spent. The Group would control the CIA which would gather information about people, and script and produce psycho-political operations focused at the people to influence them to act in accord with Round Table Group State Department policy decisions. The Group would work to consolidate all the nations of the world into a single nation, with a single central bank under their control, and a single International Security System. Some of the first legislation of the Wilson Administration was the institution of the graduated income tax (1913) and the creation of a central bank called the Federal Reserve. An inheritance tax was also instituted. These tax laws were used to rationalize the need for legislation that allowed the establishment of tax-exempt foundations. The tax-exempt foundations became the link between the Groupmember's private corporations and the University system. The Group would control the Universities by controlling the sources of their funding. The funding was money sheltered from taxes being channeled in ways which would help achieve Round Table Group aims.
Edward Mandell House had this to say in a private meeting with President Woodrow Wilson:
“[Very] soon, every American will be required to register their biological property in a national system designed to keep track of the people and that will operate under the ancient system of pledging. By such methodology, we can compel people to submit to our agenda, which will effect our security as a chargeback for our fiat paper currency. Every American will be forced to register or suffer being unable to work and earn a living. They will be our chattel, and we will hold the security interest over them forever, by operation of the law merchant under the scheme of secured transactions.
Americans, by unknowingly or unwittingly delivering the bills of lading to us will be rendered bankrupt and insolvent, forever to remain economic slaves through taxation, secured by their pledges. They will be stripped of their rights and given a commercial value designed to make us a profit and they will be none the wiser, for not one man in a million could ever figure our plans and, if by accident one or two should figure it out, we have in our arsenal plausible deniability. After all, this is the only logical way to fund government, by floating liens and debt to the registrants in the form of benefits and privileges. This will inevitably reap to us huge profits beyond our wildest expectations and leave every American a contributor to this fraud which we will call “Social Insurance.” Without realizing it, every American will insure us for any loss we may incur and in this manner, every American will unknowingly be our servant, however begrudgingly. The people will become helpless and without any hope for their redemption and, we will employ the high office of the President of our dummy corporation to foment this plot against America.”
STRAWMAN
And the alternative to the system you describe -if you didn't just make up those quotes - is what?
If House really did create a system of wage slaves it was actually so much better than the historical models of actual slavery (the ancient world) , feudalism, tenant farming, or early industrial era 12 hours workdays 6 days a week with no social support.
It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that money is a discipline and very abstract concept and tool imposed on human civilization. St. Paul may have thought it was the "root of all evil", but he seems to have ignored the numerous other roots of "all evil" that don't use money. He seems to have ignored the fact that barter means, if-you have nothing to trade, all that leaves you is your body to trade for the food to feed it. Even "evil" funny money is better than that. Social support is a gift of the angels, actually.
Other than the fact that House was a racist pig with an obsession with his own and other people's bodies - he had some rather enlightened ideas. House the racist pig died along with his dubious genes - but at least some of his better ideas survived. Isaac Newton had a head full of nonsense too most of the time but was sharp about some key concepts.
BTW - do you have any idea what the number after your name indicates? They just appeared a few weeks ago with no explanation. I write long winded comments too sometimes but you actually get readers. I don't like to look and prefer not to know or I'd write to be popular.
@@paulrosa6173i look forward to the next reply
@@lawdocs717 I'm all a tither.
@@paulrosa6173 i would urge you to look at tithing in old testament, it is not what we have been told it is, you will see it was a one time deal, not to be carried on through the ages, the tenth was not required of the new school, it even says it in new test, look closely see if it is revealed to you, as in the days of Abraham where a tenth of the spoils were required, save that tenth and give it where you are moved to give it, directly where you feel it is needed, this cuts out the middlemen who have become corrupted
Wow! Danielle's on fire today! Fantastic interview. She really "get's" it.
Uh, no.
If you're going to edit her, why even post it. The other host (Kathy) was not aware of the federal reserve bank's capabilities or of past situations with past chairs (IE: Volcker).
If you are unaware of a subject, don't act as if you are aware, just let the speaker present their ideas. Why have the speaker present if you are going to interject with your own uneducated ideas on a topic you brought an expert on for?
Equivalent of hiring a pro chef, and then correcting the chef on their cooking.
I agree. It is OK to disagree w her, but have some stones and challenge her DURING the interview not behind her back AFTER she is gone. I won't watch this channel again as they lost my trust. Dude needs to get a backbone.
The first lady was right on point. These two are laughing because they are clueless. Already a lot of new families have moved back with their parents. They are going to stay there permanently. Insurance is unaffordable, and a lot of older condo owners are going to be hit with assessments for the insurance, repairs, and inspections. If you own a condo, you get upset, but if you own 10 units, you end up losing your pants. Has anyone noticed the number of new storage facilities being built? There is nothing to be optimistic about. Cash out, get a farm loan, and move your family there. You can grow organic food, and protect your children from the media propaganda that wants to neuter the population. Putin is unstable and being cornered, I mean the entire world is playing with fire, and these two dimwits acting as if everything is going to be fine. The nuclear arsenal doesn't come in a stick shift. 80 percent of remote computer jobs will be gone soon. EBT does not pay for your mortgage. I don't see any normalization until 2031.
wow I don't think you could be any more wrong
@@stevenporter9114 I sure hope so Steven, for everyone's sake.
Well, I am listening, but this "inflation" is due in large part to supply chain disruption. AND, in my opinion, low unemployment is partly due to a high disability rate (Jay Dowd's analysis) and some voluntary unemployment.
Wonderful interview
Putting money directly into consumers hands while at the same time wrecking the supply chain caused inflation.
10000000% correct!
QE causes inflation.
No other cause.
Better to put it in the so called “job creators” hands so they can bid up the price on real assets and equities lmao!! The government knew they couldn’t just bailout Wall Street and Big Business like 08’ while leaving the consumer “people” helpless and out of work so they finally handed out money to everybody. Either way it’s horrible on both ends!!
By design
Not the 1500 checks, but the millions in PPP fraudulent loans.
To simplify this: The Fed has been giving away free money for way too long and is now trying to reel it back in by raising interest rates. They’re trying to cover their own ass at the expense of everyone else. The Fed is responsible for the current inflation. The CARES Act, which is the largest upward transfer of wealth in human history, accelerated inflation. It’s not because people got a whopping grand total of $1,800 3 years ago. It’s corporate/wealthy greed and irresponsibility fueled by a government that has been subsidizing and giving free money to their stupidity.
I think she right get ready for a rough ride. Business closing every where, more vacant buildings. And AI intelligence taking more jobs.
If she said it, then the opposite is true. She is wrong about everything.
I dun think so. Economy does not work under hyperinflation.
Ray dalios changing world order is telling us the world will reset that include economy (we are at the final stage of resetting btw). True for past 500 years cos its human innate behavior. Good luck if u think u can still buy high and sell higher lmao.
Having been in Real Estate since 1972, I completely agree with Di Martino. Get your powered dry. If you want an option. To get into Real Estatebuy Tax Liens. Sell any Robert now with a 6.5% interest rate or higher. Why you will probably loose double your interest rate in value.
Another looming risk is demograhic. We'll have the most adults alive at the same time in America for another couple of decades. After that, we shrink. Not so suddenly, there are plenty of homes to go around. I wonder what that does to the folks holding 30-year mortgages at the end of the line.
Not here in CA. The immigration policy has caused a major problem of new homeless. Larger homes are being bought at any price, with auction style selling. I guess it depends on where you are. Our new influx of citizens are somehow something that most people don’t consider. I’ve been waiting to buy , just last week I went on mls. There was one home for sale. It was 50% above market and they said they were taking the highest offer. I’m not sure that’s even alllowed. I’m still holding out for hope.
Where?
Everywhere. Including California. As a 10-year resident of San Francisco, I assure yiu homelessness has little to do with migrants, and everything to do with abdication of responsibility by local governments and unchecked progressivism.
They continue to be slaves to a 30 year mortgage that was designed to 'never be paid off'.