@@CurtisLoew-q7q great question! Steve is a channel member and one of the perks of being a member is that you can view my videos before everyone else can. I made today's video (and uploaded it) 4 days ago so members would have been able to view it right after I uploaded it.
A single man with a average job could afford all bills and a mortgage and a car payment back in the 70s,80, and 90s. Now days you gotta have your wife working and even roommates paying you rent for extra bedrooms.
@@ColetteSpencer-k5oI can't believe all the policies they have been writing! They just kept at it for years when no other companies would. Not at all surprising they finally pulled out. It's terrible out there!
Don't know what part of NorCal you're referencing but in our area, zoned rural-residential, they can't build fast enough and fire insurance hasn't been a problem.
@ if Elon closes Fremont 3% loans will not make any difference. The State legislature is now considering NOT including Tesla car tax credits!!!! California already has an insurance crisis, huge deficit, and people leaving that has not ever occurred! If they tit for tat Tesla their playing a most dangerous game. The days of gov being fair and impartial are gone! Economic warfare is lethal.
No one i know can afford house prices in my area anymore, not a HCOL. The people that have moved in are DINK software devs. Our region just cant sustain this, especially as im in upstate ny and the taxes are usually half the mortgage payment, historically
Just saw one listed near colorado springs on the market for months with price reductions. It is right now 50k below what the seller paid in 22' for it...not a million dollar home either.
In California tons of layoffs and store closures yet housing prices continue to rice. I guess it will take a total economic collapse for the housing market to become affordable
Happy Holidays Jason! Diane Olick wrote article the previous week indicating mortgage refinance applications were up 24% week2week and 42% from the same time last year. While purchase applications were down 4% w2w and up 4% compred to rhe same time last year. Just as info because I know you cover this very thing sometimes and it seems to be in an interesting if not telling place right now. Thanks again for the data share.
I noticed that as well. That's from the MBA and they post weekly application numbers every Wednesday. Part of the refi numbers are skewed because the MBA doesn't adjust them for holiday effects so Thanksgiving inflated the week over week and YOY stats. They do provide their purchase index on a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis. Makes no sense to me why they don't adjust the refi numbers for seasonally changes but I confirmed this with their media department earlier this year.
Great update! 👍 Thanks Jason! We're seeing definitely price drops in Arizona because of the rise in supply. Our supply is higher than 2022 which leads me to believe more action going into Spring 2025 here again 🙌 but still will be slow because those interest rates will come down slowly to avoid spiking inflation again🐌
@JasonWalter1 yep! Much needed balance has returned to AZ. This should continue into 2025 as the rates slowly drop and appreciation bobs up and down (basically stays flat).
I see houses sitting for sale on the southeast coast here. I was going to buy a new house, but I can't afford it after going through 1/2 of the process. I cancelled the contract, and asked for my deposit back. The salesman tells me sales are going well , but I see the lots remaining for sale for 3 months straight now.... nobody is buying them.
Not in our area. Moving so fast. We sold in a weekend with all offers over asking up to appraisal. Moving to a market that slowed but still selling in 1-2 weeks. The prices will adjust
This data is all manipulated. There's plenty of houses, they're just listing limited amounts so they don't oversaturate their own comps. Even if they flooded the market, we know 70% of households are paycheck to paycheck, so houses could go down to $10 if people don't have $2 for a down payment. Obviously that's an exaggeration, but it's a whole lot closer to where prices should be based on wages versus Wall Street speculation. A correction won't do any good when people can't afford food.
Interesting development indeed! The case shiller HPI algorithm uses a 90-day moving average. Time will tell. We can say with confidence that YoY is flat +/- 2%. From an investment standpoint, this is not very good. Especially since we haven’t included all costs in these %s. Oh well, the trolls never learn. Happy Holidays. Hope you and yours are doing well!
Happy Holidays to you and hope you're doing well too! It's remarkable that inventory nationally is at a 4yr high during the same time period yet the median sale price should be higher than last year.
The case schiller index does not use an algorithm that shows percentages increases in values. You're spreading misinformation again. Home prices are up 5-6% year over year, right in line with the historical averages going back over 30 years. Keep renting though, I can assure you that you are paying for all those higher costs plus a tidy profit for your rich landlord.
@ the YoY is down to 4.6 from 5.2 “of the previous quarter!” How many days are in a quarter? 😂 Experts are calling for an end of year revision around 2%. Could be higher! Basically flat in most markets. This is a national average. lol. You’re fake news, guy. On all your accounts! 😂
@LockedUpLarry More misinformation. Prices are up 5-6% year over year exactly as I said. Please don't continue to try and use what everyone knows is seasonality to beat your dead horse , Travis.
@ I told you last week, next time you call me renter you can also call me a Nissan driving old clothes renter! Don’t miss out on the insults. 😂 you get so triggered anytime someone mentions their area and how they are winning. Not only do I rent, I’m moving into “another” rental for almost 800/m cheaper. lol. 😂 I’m a renter, all the way to the bank too!
Dear Homeowners, The workforce drives first-time home sales, but mass unemployment-affecting even high-income earners-has changed the market. Companies like Klarna have automated roles and posted “ghost jobs” without hiring for over a year. Fewer workers with incomes mean fewer home sales, more inventory, and declining prices. Real estate values depend on nearby sales; when neighbors sell for less, your property loses value. Prolonged unemployment will only accelerate this trend. Billionaires are poised to buy homes at rock-bottom prices while others can’t get loans. Once they own these properties, they’ll likely rehire workers to drive demand. It’s a harsh reality, but one worth knowing.
I don’t know if you are new to the real estate market, but this has happened every year since they kept data. Of course, new listings decrease for the month of December because there are much fewer buyers in December! Because of the holidays! And sellers too don’t want to sell and have people all over their houses during the holidays! You say this as if this is the first time in your life that you have observed this phenomenon….are you sure? Come on, let’s be a little more genuine than this please.
The trends I shared in the video are based on YOY changes so early-Dec this year compared to early-Dec last year. In other words, YOY changes account for seasonal changes. Also, FYI: I've been a Realtor for nearly 12yrs and a CPA and financial analyst prior to that. It's not rocket science to figure out that new listings and inventory decrease nearly every Winter.
These are multi year trends. If you waited past the peak, you already won, and it will be a number of years of lowering prices. The only exception is if wages rise substantially, and we all know that's not how the game works
And when, pray tell, was the "peak"? And while you're at it, please explain how the average renter, who has wasted over 100k on rent the past 4 years has "already won? Then explain what it is they have "won", exactly.
Jason, I think your content is great, but if you’re possibly wondering if something is holding back your channel growth, there’s something about you’re voice/cadence/tone or something that I just cannot focus on when I’m multi tasking. You might be the only content maker I find this issue with. Maybe it’s just me, but maybe not.
Ha, yes Jason... Consider hiring a hot bombshell lady to be the face of the channel. You'd see mind-boggling growth. You're a great-looking guy and very articulate but not many want to watch us old mid-40s farts talk about real estate geek information. Find some ridiculously hot 30 year old female digital Nomad living in a camper van and your channel will explode. 🎉
Fear mongering video in my opinion. If you look it up, their cancellation rate for Q4 2024 ended Sept 30th was 21% (not 27%), unchanged from the prior year quarter. That was posted on their website on 10/29/24 which was 2 weeks before that video was published. Their stock price is up 3% over the past 6 months so it's not like their stock is plummeting. Home sales revenues increased 7% to $33.9 billion on 89,690 homes closed. The Company's consolidated cash balance at September 30, 2024 was $4.5 billion and available capacity on its credit facilities was $3.1 billion, for total liquidity of $7.6 billion.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
#1 Happy Thursday Jason!
#LetsGetNerdy
#RealEstateIsLocal😊
You are fast! Have a good night!
When you pop up, I start commenting & liking the video Jason!😂🤣😂
@@JasonWalter1How did he comment 4 days before you posted this video??
@@CurtisLoew-q7q great question! Steve is a channel member and one of the perks of being a member is that you can view my videos before everyone else can. I made today's video (and uploaded it) 4 days ago so members would have been able to view it right after I uploaded it.
@ Thanks for the quick and clear response.
About half of the homes I see marked pending sale in my area stay that way for months and put back on the market where the deal fell through
Same here in Maryland
Lot of people took their house off the market and are waiting for spring homebuying season.
A single man with a average job could afford all bills and a mortgage and a car payment back in the 70s,80, and 90s. Now days you gotta have your wife working and even roommates paying you rent for extra bedrooms.
Adu's name of the game.
its actually insane
So in FL, they are offering 40k towards closing costs and on closing you get a rebate for the unused portion.
All to keep prices high on paper.
@@minimalist0000 what city and builder is this?
@ I visited many builders in the Mirada community near Tampa, it was either pulte or dr-Horton
No one is buying and houses are staying on the market so long sellers are just taking them off the market.
Northern California houses are sitting so long they just get removed from the market. Fire insurance is killing home buying in this area
Usaa isnt insuring any new home purchases in ca. Insurance is totally screwing the home market
@@ColetteSpencer-k5oI can't believe all the policies they have been writing! They just kept at it for years when no other companies would. Not at all surprising they finally pulled out. It's terrible out there!
Don't know what part of NorCal you're referencing but in our area, zoned rural-residential, they can't build fast enough and fire insurance hasn't been a problem.
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis
Thank you Sir
Appreciate you an your work as always Jason
I always love listening to you
Thank You Jason
Thank you very much Matt!
California unemployment is 5.4% and the trendline appear to be increasing.
That's much better than the 12.6% in January 2010 but 5.4% is elevated compared to 2017-2019.
@ if Elon closes Fremont 3% loans will not make any difference. The State legislature is now considering NOT including Tesla car tax credits!!!! California already has an insurance crisis, huge deficit, and people leaving that has not ever occurred! If they tit for tat Tesla their playing a most dangerous game. The days of gov being fair and impartial are gone!
Economic warfare is lethal.
@@JasonWalter1 This is the beginning not the bottom.
No one i know can afford house prices in my area anymore, not a HCOL. The people that have moved in are DINK software devs. Our region just cant sustain this, especially as im in upstate ny and the taxes are usually half the mortgage payment, historically
@@zipporaid those dink software devs are going to be unloading homes soon here since they are the ones being hit hardest by layoffs
Just saw one listed near colorado springs on the market for months with price reductions. It is right now 50k below what the seller paid in 22' for it...not a million dollar home either.
In California tons of layoffs and store closures yet housing prices continue to rice. I guess it will take a total economic collapse for the housing market to become affordable
the Blackrock effect
Happy Holidays Jason! Diane Olick wrote article the previous week indicating mortgage refinance applications were up 24% week2week and 42% from the same time last year. While purchase applications were down 4% w2w and up 4% compred to rhe same time last year. Just as info because I know you cover this very thing sometimes and it seems to be in an interesting if not telling place right now. Thanks again for the data share.
I noticed that as well. That's from the MBA and they post weekly application numbers every Wednesday. Part of the refi numbers are skewed because the MBA doesn't adjust them for holiday effects so Thanksgiving inflated the week over week and YOY stats. They do provide their purchase index on a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis. Makes no sense to me why they don't adjust the refi numbers for seasonally changes but I confirmed this with their media department earlier this year.
Great update! 👍 Thanks Jason! We're seeing definitely price drops in Arizona because of the rise in supply. Our supply is higher than 2022 which leads me to believe more action going into Spring 2025 here again 🙌 but still will be slow because those interest rates will come down slowly to avoid spiking inflation again🐌
Thank you for sharing. I saw Phoenix now has more homes for sale than 2019 too.
@JasonWalter1 yep! Much needed balance has returned to AZ. This should continue into 2025 as the rates slowly drop and appreciation bobs up and down (basically stays flat).
Thank you for the update Jason!!
You bet!
I see houses sitting for sale on the southeast coast here. I was going to buy a new house, but I can't afford it after going through 1/2 of the process. I cancelled the contract, and asked for my deposit back. The salesman tells me sales are going well , but I see the lots remaining for sale for 3 months straight now.... nobody is buying them.
Informative as usual 💎💡👏🏽
Appreciate that
Thank you !!!
You're welcome!
Amazing info…
Glad you think so!
Good morning everyone
Good morning, Rene.
Not in our area. Moving so fast. We sold in a weekend with all offers over asking up to appraisal. Moving to a market that slowed but still selling in 1-2 weeks. The prices will adjust
This data is all manipulated. There's plenty of houses, they're just listing limited amounts so they don't oversaturate their own comps. Even if they flooded the market, we know 70% of households are paycheck to paycheck, so houses could go down to $10 if people don't have $2 for a down payment. Obviously that's an exaggeration, but it's a whole lot closer to where prices should be based on wages versus Wall Street speculation. A correction won't do any good when people can't afford food.
Interesting development indeed! The case shiller HPI algorithm uses a 90-day moving average. Time will tell. We can say with confidence that YoY is flat +/- 2%. From an investment standpoint, this is not very good. Especially since we haven’t included all costs in these %s. Oh well, the trolls never learn. Happy Holidays. Hope you and yours are doing well!
Happy Holidays to you and hope you're doing well too! It's remarkable that inventory nationally is at a 4yr high during the same time period yet the median sale price should be higher than last year.
The case schiller index does not use an algorithm that shows percentages increases in values. You're spreading misinformation again. Home prices are up 5-6% year over year, right in line with the historical averages going back over 30 years.
Keep renting though, I can assure you that you are paying for all those higher costs plus a tidy profit for your rich landlord.
@ the YoY is down to 4.6 from 5.2 “of the previous quarter!” How many days are in a quarter? 😂 Experts are calling for an end of year revision around 2%. Could be higher! Basically flat in most markets. This is a national average. lol. You’re fake news, guy. On all your accounts! 😂
@LockedUpLarry More misinformation. Prices are up 5-6% year over year exactly as I said. Please don't continue to try and use what everyone knows is seasonality to beat your dead horse , Travis.
@ I told you last week, next time you call me renter you can also call me a Nissan driving old clothes renter! Don’t miss out on the insults. 😂 you get so triggered anytime someone mentions their area and how they are winning. Not only do I rent, I’m moving into “another” rental for almost 800/m cheaper. lol. 😂 I’m a renter, all the way to the bank too!
Good morning! It’s a beautiful day to buy a rental or primary house! 🏡
The people dumb enough to believe that can't afford to buy, and the people who can afford it are smart enough to know better 😉
@@nitroneonicman wait until he pitches the housing shortage myth.
@ It’s the happy girl. Again. Quiet and let the men do our jobs. 🏡
Good morning!
@@toinengwyn3935 Please reveal to us your housing models and tell us where you got either your experience or your degree. Thanks for your input.
Mahalo 🤙🏽
Good morning!
Inventory in parts of California are threw the roof I guess when you look as a whole state it makes your numbers correct or does it
I’m waiting till President Trump takes office before I start house shopping
Thank you for commenting. I'm curious: why are you waiting until then?
@@JasonWalter1So You see no difference in Trumps economic ideology compared to Bidens ?
@@JasonWalter1 He promised to lower prices. He never lies.
@@joelwillis2043haha 😂
@@joelwillis2043😂😂😂😂😂
Dear Homeowners,
The workforce drives first-time home sales, but mass unemployment-affecting even high-income earners-has changed the market. Companies like Klarna have automated roles and posted “ghost jobs” without hiring for over a year. Fewer workers with incomes mean fewer home sales, more inventory, and declining prices.
Real estate values depend on nearby sales; when neighbors sell for less, your property loses value. Prolonged unemployment will only accelerate this trend. Billionaires are poised to buy homes at rock-bottom prices while others can’t get loans. Once they own these properties, they’ll likely rehire workers to drive demand. It’s a harsh reality, but one worth knowing.
Are house homes the billionaires plan on hoarding away from families all fireproof ? What about their kids live in?
I don’t know if you are new to the real estate market, but this has happened every year since they kept data. Of course, new listings decrease for the month of December because there are much fewer buyers in December! Because of the holidays! And sellers too don’t want to sell and have people all over their houses during the holidays! You say this as if this is the first time in your life that you have observed this phenomenon….are you sure? Come on, let’s be a little more genuine than this please.
The trends I shared in the video are based on YOY changes so early-Dec this year compared to early-Dec last year. In other words, YOY changes account for seasonal changes. Also, FYI: I've been a Realtor for nearly 12yrs and a CPA and financial analyst prior to that. It's not rocket science to figure out that new listings and inventory decrease nearly every Winter.
The greedy season is over 🎉
These are multi year trends. If you waited past the peak, you already won, and it will be a number of years of lowering prices. The only exception is if wages rise substantially, and we all know that's not how the game works
And when, pray tell, was the "peak"? And while you're at it, please explain how the average renter, who has wasted over 100k on rent the past 4 years has "already won? Then explain what it is they have "won", exactly.
Jason, I think your content is great, but if you’re possibly wondering if something is holding back your channel growth, there’s something about you’re voice/cadence/tone or something that I just cannot focus on when I’m multi tasking. You might be the only content maker I find this issue with. Maybe it’s just me, but maybe not.
Ha, yes Jason... Consider hiring a hot bombshell lady to be the face of the channel. You'd see mind-boggling growth. You're a great-looking guy and very articulate but not many want to watch us old mid-40s farts talk about real estate geek information. Find some ridiculously hot 30 year old female digital Nomad living in a camper van and your channel will explode. 🎉
ua-cam.com/video/PmVNeuracyE/v-deo.htmlsi=6C-S-mnKPwlcqxDZ
Fear mongering video in my opinion. If you look it up, their cancellation rate for Q4 2024 ended Sept 30th was 21% (not 27%), unchanged from the prior year quarter. That was posted on their website on 10/29/24 which was 2 weeks before that video was published. Their stock price is up 3% over the past 6 months so it's not like their stock is plummeting. Home sales revenues increased 7% to $33.9 billion on 89,690 homes closed. The Company's consolidated cash balance at September 30, 2024 was $4.5 billion and available capacity on its credit facilities was $3.1 billion, for total liquidity of $7.6 billion.