Why France Can't Form a New Government
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- Опубліковано 11 лип 2024
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In this video we’re going to take a look at some of the potential government formations, go through their pros and cons, and explain why France now faces a tense political gridlock with no clear way out.
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France is ungovernable
*laughs in Belgian*
*Laughs in Tea*
*Laughs even harder in Bulgarian*
American: "Wait, you guys can govern?"
Joke is on you, you can't laugh in Belgian, it doesn't exist as a language.
France is now Belgium, but like 1/3 of the seats going to PTB/PVDA, 1/3 going to Les Engagés/CD&V and 1/3 going to Vlaams Belang
Fuck it, congratulations Kylian Mbappe for your new role as Prime minister
Honestly the best option
nah, when he heard the NFP wanted a 90% tax on the ultra-rich he immediately fled to Spain
I'd rather die
@@markdowding5737 they want the rich to leave and destroy the west. liberals are too dumb to understand that when those in power run out of other peoples money they just kill off the useful idiots.
Underrated comment.
It looks like 2024 is the year in which a lot of electoral systems will be questioned
But won't change.
Hm, the American elections are also coming up! Let’s see what happens!
cough cough far right-wing detected , if you don't like the rules don't play, the party of Macron and the left ran together in the second round, so in the end they had 13.3 million voters instead of 10.1 of the national rally
@@soundscape26yeah, not like an electoral system changing has ever happened lol
@@auag7208 It can... but I'm not feeling it will.
It's worth noting that while the NFP has achieved a major victory, it is the RN that benefits from Gridlock. They are possibly the largest anti establishment party in France, and the strategy of the Republican Front only boosts this image.
True
@@karankapoor2701With Macron not running for president again and the loss of seats in the election. I can definitely see the next election being between the NFP and the National Rally.
@@gameofender4463 "Macron not running again" huh? do you mean the presidential election?
@@jonathanodude6660 Yep.
@@jonathanodude6660 He already had his two terms, he can't run again
Is this the famous Macron master stroke that everyone kept telling me about?
More like a brain stroke.
He went from 1% first round to second biggest party. Still impressive.
Gridlock depends on the other parties.
He kept LePen marginalised. That was his main goal.
He tried to do what pedro sanchez in spain did last year and it went wrong
His main goal was to have Le Pen governing for one year, with hopes that it would be very unpopular and then avoid her winning his seat.
Now, if he makes it difficult for the left to govern, he benefitts Le Pen in the long run.
Time for France to experience what Bulgarians are going through
Time for France to go right...
@@Drunken_Masterthere no center-right party, tragically
@@Drunken_Masterwrong
@@Drunken_MasterGoing right = going wrong
@@d.b.2215 the right is the only one capable of doing what is objectively good
France is going back to the 1945/6/7/8/9 when their Governments changed almost monthly.
Or even back to WW2
The problem with the 4th republic was not the proportionnal representation. The problem was how it was easy to overthrow a government.
Today a lot of countries have PR but have stability, and why? Because if you want to overthrow a government, those who want to overthrow the government need to have more MPs to build their own government. It's easy to gang up to say: "we don't want you anymore" but if you're unable to stay united to propose your own alternative, then that's how you end up with the instability of the 4th republic.
For exemple with a proportionnal representation, the National Rally would have been first (but without an absolute majority) and would form a government.
With a 4th republic system, the National Rally could be overthrown by the left and macronists who could have a majority to kick them out, and that's how you have instability. But in the majority of European countries using PR, the left and macronists could not overthrow the National Rally IF they just gang up to kick them out, without making their own government with the support of a bigger number of MPs. And that's how you have stability: you can't overthrow a government if you can't replace by an other government having more support.
@@gontrandjojo9747as sound of a system this is, it is not as widespread as you say. From what I know, of the big players only Germany has "constructive no-confidence" in place.
@@2adamastI think you mean before
What the hell is going on with Macron's hair in the thumbnail lol
his toupet flying off
His hair when they saw the election result.
His hands look weird as well
I think it might be AI slop
@@MultiGeorge101
It must be artificial intelligence which made the image
I think long term this is great for RN because tough decisions about budgets after to be made and the poltical mess that this will entail will allow RB to blame both the centrists and the left for the economic chaos that ensues.
I mean that's how Meloni got in power by running as the sole opposition.
I seriously doubt that this will happen. Neither the left nor the right has enough support to form a governing coalition on their own.
Moreover, the RN was rejected by over 70% of the voters in a high turnout election, and they would have few potential coalition partners.
It's very rich to hear the NFP claim they deserve to form a government with less than 180 MPs, while they were the first ones to argue that the presidential coalition was unfit to govern with their 245 MPs back in 2022...
I don't think it's so much about the numbers but the behaviors of the presidential majority, they would literally make discussions stall for hours so that enough of their representatives would be in the assembly to obtain a majority. And a million others things like that, there are videos from other representatives demonstrating that. It's that anti democratic behavior that NFP (or even RN I'm not taking sides today) as far as I know never had. It's beyond the numbers really
@@karanaima Mmmmmh, I'm gonna have to refute that.
There's plenty of interviews, during the 2 years after the parliamentary election in 2022 and today, showing members of the left parties of the ex-NUPES claiming that the presidential party and allies being in minority had no legitimacy to govern and called for a dissolution.
Futhermore, NFP parties definitively have been guilty of anti-democratic behavior. Their MPs have constantly used obstruction during debates, the best example being during the new pension reform which resulted in an incapacity of the parliament to vote against the project, giving the government an excuse to use article 49.3. NFP parties have also criticized the use of this constitutional tool, calling it a deny of democracy, only to tell us that they didn't exclude using it in order to apply their program, which is still legal, but highly hypocritical. Moving aside the MANY incidents in parliamentary session where NUPES members (mainly France Unbowed and the Greens) repetitively discrupted the assembly, straight up insulted opposition and government members and called to insurrection and violence during 2023 riots, those are but few examples.
While it is very true the government and it's minority used of constitutional tools and cheats to pass most of their reforms, it's just infuriating to see such nerve, especially from a coalition that, is as of now, basically trying to enforce their rule with almost no legitimacy.
The chances of the NFP staying together for more than 3 - 6 months is extremely doubtful...
After coming first in the second round, I disagree. They’ve just seen massive gains by working together. And as part of the NFP, they know they can have more influence.
@@gameofender4463 doesn't matter if one section supports only benefitting working french people more and the other believes wellfare should be expanded massively
The NFP can do it, France has had similar coalitions under people like Mitterand.
Normally I would say they would stick together but the situation is particular because LFI i spart of NFP and a lot of parties wants to distance themselves from it.
The second party of the NFP, the PS really don’t seem keen on working together with LFI. (The Ps if I remember correctly has 2 seats fewer than LFI)
I think they will try to appoint a prime minister from the left which is not problematic. And after that the coalition will crumble. They’ll keep the name but won’t act as a block. They’ll have some alliance from time to time but there will be a lot of « frondeurs »
The PS has almost 20 seats less and no ability to run a centrist coalition or any share in any power without the LFI
This mess all started because people are fed up with centrists ignoring their needs in favour of international issues. First in the EU parliamentary election and then on the national level in France. If Macron attempts to install a centrist led coalition then that animosity towards centrists is going to get worse and drive voters to even greater extremes.
@@zukritzeln exactly! I don't get why centrist party all around the world only care about Ukraine then their own people suffering. Like jeez
True but I'll like to remind you that the far-right has had control of our EU Parlement's seats for way longer, and therefore blaming it all on centrists is not accurate.
But I do agree "centrists" have failed in France, mainly because Macron is an economist first, centrist second and he was governing one of the most socialist countries in Europe.
@@Saiputera They are correct to care about Ukraine though, and it isn't like the weapons they are sending would do any good in France. They have failed to help their own people, and that is a very real problem, but stopping aid to Ukraine isn't going to fix that. We should help Ukraine AND fix the problems in our own countries, and the only thing stopping us from doing both is conservatives who don't want to fix the problems, they just want tax cuts and bigotry.
And seven years ago, Macron's party rose to power because people were fed up with the Socialist Party and the Republicans ignoring their needs. It's a loop...
Centrism failed France not because it puts international issues first, but because centrism itself is not a good ideology to have in your government lol
Alternative intro: with PM Gabriel Attal's finger firmly pressed on the eject button...
Table is back!
I wonder if it's a new set
@@BonJoviBeatlesLedZep It looks different; weird, almost... kind of unsettling, but it's better than the couch
2:29 This is misleading. The percentages are skewed towards parties who don't desist in the second round and thus can get vote in a lot more places.
it's not misleading in the sense that there is always a centre or leftwing opposing party to vote for in the second round. So you can just combine the two.
2 days ago: French politics is the craziest in the world right now
Today, the USA: *Hold my beer!*
So a few additional informations here :
It is worth saying for future reference, that the results can be interpreted in two ways, the first and most obvious one is that there are now 3 factions in the assembly, being the centrist liberals of Ensemble, often called Macronists, the broad left united under the NFP, with LFI (France Unbowed) being the most prominent one and technically the one that's the most on the left, and the far right RN party, which is the single most popular party on the National assembly, however the other reading we can make of this result is that the assembly is in majority against the RN, since the reason we came in this gridlock to begin with, is because of the "Front Républicain" where Macronists and Leftists that came in third place delisted themselves in favor of the candidate that had the most chances to beat the RN candidate, and i think this read is more telling than we make it to be
France as of now still is divided between giving the RN a chance, and not letting them get in power, and that struggle will only be moore clear in next presidential elections, where Macron can't run a third time, so unless the Macronists stay united and find a successor to Macron, they will likely be on third place, if they stay united even, else they'll have the same situation as the left in 2022 elections
Either way this election is a lost opportunity for RN to govern, but still a win for them since they're a single party that has a third of the assembly
These elections also got rid of the eventuality of having a fractured far right, since the other far right party "Reconquête" got absolutely soloed and didn't even get a single seat if im not mistaken
To summarize, we have a far right that's united and represented by a single party, although still lacking good candidates as we've seen the circus of some RN candidate. A left that's united under the urgency of the situation, mainly the threat of the far right in power, but still squabbling about who should do what. And finally a central block that seems in shambles as they oppose Macrons latest actions, and need to find a suitable candidate for 2027 or else they will be left in the dust by a left slowly growing in popularity, and a far right basically flying over everyone else both in the poles and in the popular votes
So RN is far right and the frint is only left?
Thats a lie
"broad left"
"far right"
I see what you've done there..
@@alexlehrersh9951 name one far left policy they support.
@@nah88 You know this can just be the case right? Reality isn't equally balanced.
@@ttt5205
I give you one: legalise squating
1) RN is the biggest party in the elections. It only "lost" because of these coalitions like Ensemble and The Left.
2) These coalitions will have a really hard time forming a government, so who will win because of all this chaos? Yes, RN.
So, in the end, RN wins.
RN has the popular vote, more than 50 percent which means they would win in a general election. This means they will likely win 2027 election.
I think it’s funny how everyone was saying that Macron was a genius for calling this election now to take the wind out of RN’s sails before 2027, and now this happened, perhaps the worst possible outcome for him. He squandered his parliamentary majority…and for what, exactly?
for a temporary boost to his ego at seeing the chaos
He didn't have a majority he had a minority government better than it is currently though for sure 😊
@@Kamfrenchie fwiw, I think now is the time to invest in popcorn
@@reiudfgq3vrh34ur he didn’t have a majority coalition?
@@jwil4286he had that for his first terms, thats his 2nd term, he lost a few seats then.
Already threatened back then to dissolve the assembly btw because dude wanted to pass his BS laws screwing the people over
_respect the choice of the voters_
IRONY
Remember that the most votes were gained by the rn, at 10milion with 33 %, and they still got third amount of seats, not too democratic eh?
@@lucazelmat5379 If you consider that Macron's party and the Popular Front basically formed a de-facto partnership against the RN and people voted for those parties' candidates and together they won most of the vote, it's pretty easy to understand what happened. Not that the electoral system is good or anything.
@@lucazelmat5379 They were competing in the secound round in much more places, if you take the vote share between people who had the possibility to vote for each party, the NFP is above the RN in the secound round
Communist clowns claim to be against corporations but these muppets vote for bankers and get their riots funded by corporations...Nobody pushed the woke agenda more than blackrock.
@@Gachette00 Yes we cant compare numbers of votes in the 2nd round, but we can in first round where people vote for their party, not against someone, and they were still ahead, they didnt had majority in 2nd round because people vote against them so they lost, but one camp from republican front annoncing a victory and having the legitimacy because of "the choices of voters" is very ironic
Why don't they just compromise? You can't govern such a politically diverse and divided country without compromises with other parties
welcome to France.
The compromise is having every party go against one to stop the vote of the majority… welcome to the west
Compromise? Who? RN obviously can't compromise with either Ensemble or NFP due to ideological and goal differences. RN wants to make actual changes that neither NFP nor Ensemble would agree with.
Ensemble and NFP could govern together, but it is clear that many NFP voters wouldn't like to see Ensemble policies being backed by NFP and vice versa.
If they make a compromise then either one or both will drop in popularity in favor of RN which neither of them wants in power.
Neither of the leftist blocks wants to pay the price of solving this deadlock.
It's all just a masquerade to distract the population from understanding that Power is in the hands of the unelected.
Govern what, exactly? What does the "Government" actually govern? How much taxes they'll take from your paycheck?
because it's been so long we never had to do it because kinda bipolarity was in place and it was just a camp wining 50% seats and not having to compromise, only parties who rule european union together knows to do it, we never had in 5ème République a party/coalition of the same camp winning general elections but having so low seats that 100% it would be censored
Jordan Bardella and RN dodged a missile with the prime minister due to finish a budget in September for Chiefs in EU.
I am a french and i'm approuve TLDR news EU when his spoke of france.
I agree, they are factual, not biased, and have a good understanding of the political system here
They are biased towards left-wing policies actually
Yeah, they are the best news sources I know of rn
Ensemble voters who voted NFP and NFP voters who voted Ensemble, just to keep Le Pen out, when the stupid politicians they voted for turn out to be, in fact, stupid: shocked Pikachu face
France having Political troubles water is also wet
Maybe a 6th Republic is on the way
The only way you could have constitutional reform is if there was substantial political agreement. I think Melenchon´s proposal for the sixth republic is great.
It proposes reducing the president´s power, having a more parliamentary system, having some MPs elected by sortition (like how we choose juries in the UK).
It's funny how what would be the normal situation in the Italian parliament is causing such an issue in France. Then again, Italy is not exactly renowned for its political stability 😅
This looks like the start of another Belgium political stalemate.
Oi… we do good now (belgian)
What about Mario Draghi? 🤣
Cursed AI Macron doesn exist, he can't hurt you!
Cursed AI Macron in thumbnail: 😉😜😏👀
in france, i have no idea why we have no conversation about the way the elections happen. i suppose its mostly because of how proud french people are about our different republics and especially that it was Charles de Gaulle who made the reforms to the electoral system, but that doesnt mean it cant change. when you have situations like the one we're in now i dont know why no ones questioning how illogical our system is.
The majority of people are under some trance. America watched our elections get rigged on television and still 98% of Trump supporters think they will vote Biden out....We are in the last days and the minds of the masses is under demonic control.
In a shocking twist, Macron appoints Mario Draghi as prime minister xD.
Only allowing constructive votes of no confidence seems like a feature any parliamentary system would be well-advised to have.
It seems silly to just let parliament topple a government with no plan for who to replace them with.
Technically this is already how a censor vote works in France. The party proposing the vote must write a text that (at least on paper) would form a basis for a new government. Besides, only votes that actively support the censorship are counted (abstains and no-shows are counted as supporting the government already in place). That's actually the reason Macron's government survived from 2022 to 2024 (they were in minority but the Left did not vote any censorship proposed by the Right, and vice-versa with some exceptions).
Why? What if Parliament wants a new election?
@@Yozoru not really, macron gov survived 2 years thanks to LR, the right party that didnt vote any censor vote, and macron majority was 245 on 577, not 182 on 577, there were censor vote where all left and far right voted for but LR and macron's party were enough to not topple the gov
@@peterfireflylund The constructive vote of no confidence was invented in Germany by the authors of the Basic Law (West Germanys post WW2 constitution) to avoid instability in a Parliament where a so called "negative majority" (a combined majority only agreeing in their distain for the government, typically of the far-left and far-right) exist. Such a negative majority toppeled several governments during the Weimar Republic and facilitated the political instability of the republic. Therefore the authors of the Basic Law wanted to avoid governments to be toppeled by no confidence votes when no majority for a specific different government exists.
Also the authors of the Basic Law didn't want early elections to be used as an easy way out, they wanted early elections to be called only if there is a real political crisis resulting in legislative deadlock. Therefore early elections are only permissable under the Basic Law in two situations:
The first situation where dissollution is permissable is when no person received an absolute majority (more than half of the members of the Bundestag) in the final ballot of the chancellorship election, the president can choose to dissolve the Bundestag instead of appointing the person with the most votes to be chancellor.
The second situation where dissollution is permissable is when a confidence motion (called "Vertrauensfrage") of the chancellor is defeated, the chancellor may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. This was used creatively several times by pervious chancellors (last in 2005) to call an early election by losing a confidence motion on purpose which is called "unechte Vertrauensfrage" (literally: fake motion of confidence).
Notably, the construtive vote of no confidence only affects motions of no confidence by the opposition (called "Misstrauensantrag") not confidence motions by the chancellor, but the chancellor is not obliged to resign or to ask for an early election if he or she loses a confidence vote. The confidence motion in Germany allows only the chancellor to ask for an early election or for a state of legislative emergency (which allows for a procedure similar to Article 49.3 of the French Constitution but is only a one time measure for six months) but is not required to do either.
As a German I agree.
No government can be formed
Comme De Gaulle a dit, comment peut-on gouverner un pays qui a 500 sortes de fromage?
Parfois, je pense qu´en France le niveau de politisation est ridicule. Moi, je suis de gauche, je me décrirais comme "socialiste" sans aucun probleme, mais ça ne veut pas dire que la Gauche a toujours raison. Je soutiens la politique sociale et économique du NFP (plus ou moins), mais je pense qu´il serait une grande betise d´abandonner l´énérgie nucleaire et je ne sais pas pourquoi il faut politiser quelquechose comme les sources d´énergie? La strategie nucléaire des Gaullistes a tres bien fonctionné.
Aussi, je pense que comme n´importe quel pays les gens veulent des politiques contradictoires. Oui, on peut maintenir l´age de la retraite a 62 ans, mais il faudrait plus d´immigration (que la majorité des français ne veut pas), une grande augmentation de la productivité ou il faudrait augmenter les impots (pour les plus riches, mais aussi pour la plupart des gens).
Le probleme c´est quand on propose une réforme, immédiatement tout le monde dit "bain ça va etre difficile", "bain je veux pas payer plus d´impots", "bains, on a déja trop d´immigration".
C´est la meme chose avec l´éducation nationale, tout le monde est d´accord que le college en France ne fonctionne pas tres bien, mais le moment qu´on propose une solution c´est "oh, vous etes trop laxiste", "oh, vous n´avais pas de respect pour les profs". Et le résultat c´est qu´on ne peut rien faire.
My Duolingo French lessons finally paid off
Je vais acheter ma dixieme maison, mais le lapin est tres rapide.
More immigration ? Yeah no problem IF you're selective about it, and another thing if you keep depending on imports, your local products die. Just saying, I mean how about fixing the population and family structures instead of Immigration ? I mean selective immigration is good but not the mass immigration that has a net positive of negative 999, Like you import ten eatable tomatoes and with them you have a thousand rotten ones, you're at loss buddy.
@@Drunken_Masterquoi?
@@Nat-uw4fs haha, je pense que monsieur "drunken master" veut nous raconter une blague.
La politique sociale du NFP est un délire libertaire, faut arrêter.
L'immigration ça fait 20 ans qu'on le fait et 20 ans que ça échoue, voire nous descend.
Ça sert à quoi d'ouvrir les portes alors que nos services publics sont saturés et détériorés, qu'on a 6 millions de chômeurs français et immigrés. Accueillir pour jeter dans la misère c'est inhumain. Et on génère du communautarisme en prime, tout en tirant vers le bas les salaires...
Pour les impôts, faut arrêter de les augmenter. L'économie est asphyxiée par les impôts ! Plus on augmente, moins il a de croissance !
Seules les 10% du haut pourraient supporter, et encore s'ils ne partent pas ailleurs (c'est les plus mobiles).
Il faut arrêter de faire tout payer par le travail et la production, on est plus dans les années 1960 !
La cour des comptes hurle depuis des années sur les gaspillages ÉNORMES d'argent public, qui pourrait être utilisé pour nos hôpitaux...
L'administration écrase également le pays. Beaucoup trop grosse et lente. L'état dépense autant pour fonction que la protection sociale ! (540 milliards !). À ne pas oublier le poids absurde des normes (on perd 1 à 2% de PIB par an) qui bloquent la construction de bâtiments publics par exemple.
Il faut baisser de 40% les impôts de production pour s'aligner avec des pays comme l'Allemagne, voire les supprimer entièrement.
Supprimer l'impôt sur les sociétés qui sanctionne les start - ups et entreprises locales injustement. À la place, un impôt sur les profits (auquel peut s'ajouter une taxe superprofits) et une taxe sur les inégalités salariales dans l'entreprise.
À baisser aussi les charges patronales (pour un salaire de 3500€ l'entreprise paye 5026... un SMIC de surcoût !) Pour instaurer une TVA sociale.
BECOME UNGOVERNABLE 🏴🇫🇷
*faint sounds of ancap edits in the background*
Congratulations on not adding a -o to Eduard Philippe
Wait... when has France ever been described as governable?
and United Kingdom united ?
What’s with the background change??
New studio
Thank you so much for explaining this to me!
In my country, Greece, we would have called a new election a month later if no government was going to be formed. .This is not that uncommon , it happened in both 2012 and 2023.
To be honest the left and right should form a coalition to keep the uncaring "centrists" out
THE TABLE IS BACK
About the blocks splintering, it's worth remembering that the presidential party is only seven years old. Most of their senior members come from the Socialist Party (Macron himself, Attal, Borne, etc.) or the Republicans (Darmanin, Le Maire, etc.). So a splintering of the leftmost part of the alliance to join the NFP is not far-fetched at all.
As for the NFP, its predecessor, NUPES, was far from united and failed to maintain a steady line, with its different parties clashing on ideology, from the far left to the center left, including the greens. In the end, each party went its separate way, until the snap elections. Even during the recent campaign, cracks could be seen in the NFP. It won't be easy for them on the long term.
In any case, an absolute majority seems impossible until the next elections. People can only hope for a minority government with more weight than the current three equal blocks unwilling to cooperate.
The flickering on the blue background graphic is really annoying. Started appearing in recent videos.
And then there is Article 49.3.
whatever those in power want to happen will happen.
Even with article 49.3 the proposition can still be blocked if deputies vote a motion of censure, and in that case the entire government is expelled.
@@gautheuil6210 Yes but as far as I understand that would trigger a new election and not all parties would like that I guess.
@@yoshimeier3060 No it doesn't. The president threatened to call a snap election (dissolution) if a vote of no confidence (motion de censure) topples his government after the previous election. But now he cannot use that threat anymore since he has to wait for a year before calling another snap election.
0:34 what about union of center and right? The republicans
The french center Is never going to ally with the right
Yeah, good luck with that. Right-wing parties are the vilified black sheep across most of Europe, everyone just thinks they're Nazis and fascists because they want them to be viewed that way, so nobody is going to team up with National Rally.
the french 'center' is just left-wing
@@reksapluss716 LMAO 😂
It seems that UA-cam deleted my comment, nice. Gotta love censorship.
You should color Macron's party white, so the seats look like the french flag.
The issue is that all potential coalitions were formed before the vote, which was almost evenly split between three groups. This is a limitation of their electoral system. I think that to form a government, they should hold a third round of voting with only the top two groups in parliament (Melenchon's and Macron's). Then it will be up to Le Pen's MPs to be the kingmakers.
Adding some extra context : National Rally, Centrists and LR are all calling LFI far left but the state council has declared that they are in fact a left group. They politically decided to categorized them as far left.
Because the state council is leftist of course. Just like most of the judges.
If communists are not far left, then who is?!
LFI is to the left of the Communists. If that ain't far left, I dunno what is!
anything beyond macron is far left to rightists and vice verse tbh
@@ernstschmidt4725 It is though
who wouldve thought when you win the popular vote but finish third in terms of seats is agreat system 😭😂😂😂😂
The won the popular vote because they competed in more constituencies than the two others because of the withdrawal. If you use maths to divide each party by the number of constituencies they competed in, you’ll see that the NFP is actually above the RN in terms of votes.
Plus the gap isn’t as outrageous as it may seem. They got about a third of the votes in the first round and ended with about a third of the seats.
Also the whole point of the French system is it takes into account the preferences of the voters whose candidates came third, if nobody wins outright.
Very few canidates won outright, and people are perfectly entitled to say "I prefer an Ensemble MP to an FN one, or I prefer a Front Populair MP to an FN one".
Indeed, nothing stopped LR voters from backing FN ones over the Front Populair ones.
Also, in the past UMP (now LR) politicians often made pitches to get FN voters in the second round. Sarkozy did this in 2007
@@mrworldwide7387nfp has less vote just look at the first round
@@mrworldwide7387look at the first round
@@mrworldwide7387 RN won the first round where this arrangement between NFP and Ensemble didn't exist yet. So this theory where actually NFP is the most popular doesn't work.
Did anyone here live through the time in Belgium when there was no government for 500+ days? How did it go? Is France likely to have a similar experience?
i feel like the 2020s would be one of those very eventful and interesting decades
that is so stupid how RN has the lowest seat share but the majority of the vote by far regardless of what u think of them
that is because the french electoral system is not proportional, or at least not fully. the logic behind this is similar to the idea of ranked voting (you don't vote for a single party but rank all the parties form best to worse according to your assessment, and if your favourite party does not reach a certain threshold, your vote goes to your second option and so on). with the two turns you basically create a similar effect by eliminating unpopular choices and making people vote again. i actually feel like this is the most rational system, because full proportionality is pure chaos (as an Italian i know a little about this), but this tends to not make everyone too disappointed.
in this particular case everyone is still disappointed, but that's because the people are actually very divided, and the results reflect this. this is all part of the democratic game, and it is working as it should.
i suggest you go watch the series on electoral systems by CGP Gray
@@rishigauswami1987 The problem with proportional representation is that is creates very fragmented parliament and requires large coalitions of more than two parties with tend to be unstable but there are solutions you can employ to ensure that stable governments can be formed like:
1. have a decent threshold (like e.g. 5% in my homecountry of germany) reduces the number of relevant political parties
2. only permit constructive no confidence votes whereas a prime minister can only be deposed through the simultaneous election of a successor; this allows minority governments to exist in case you need them without them being subject to an immediate vote of no confidence requiring for the formation of a new minority government which is again subject to an immediate vote of no confidence and so on.
Under that circumstances you can have governments that actually last longer than maybe one month or so, even with PR.
Hats off to you, you called them far left.
Maybe hollande? But he said that he would refuse the role
You clearly haven't been to France ever
Someone forgot to upload this to nebula.
Americans: Our government is so dysfunctional.
Me: Looks at other governments in France and Europe.
Except UK, Canada and Hungary. Why? Because they all use first-past-the-post system. In Hungary 106 seats are elected with fptp and 93 seats with proportionnal-representation with a 5% threshold.
As a Hungarian i don't like Orbán, but i have to admit that the Hungarian political is very stable. This why my favourite political system is the Hungarian.
all Western governments are run by the same globalists. They all have the same goal. Destruction of the wesy. They use migrants and liberals to destroy everything. Then once they are done with them they will just mandate another round of mRNA....
@@dharmagall9082 Orban is based
political deadlock?? is that kaiserredux 2ACW REFFERENCE?
What?
touch grass
America - "hold my beer"
France is the new Belgium now. :D
Why isn’t it called the Far Left??? I don’t understand these labels. Seems very biased. What is the Right if RN is far right? How can a so-called far right party have so much support? That doesn’t seem to fit an extremist label!
Exactly; and they call communists just “left” not far left. It’s so dumb
thanks for the great videos nerds!
While it would be extremely unlikely, it would be very funny if the NFP and RN created an unholy alliance.
The cursed ending
"C'est Marraus revenge."
- Dreyfus non-binary muslin great grandson.
I see Olivier Faure (head of the Socialists) or possibly Francois Hollande (former Socialist Prime Minister). Macron formerly worked for Hollande before he split off and formed his own party.
But the France Unbowed party will never accept that Francois Holland becomes the prime minister
Hollande was President, not Prime Minister, and is now deputy. And it's his presidential term that brought down the Socialist Party. Him as Prime Minister would be ironic, to say the least.
The gridlock is probably the best possible solution. No new crazy legislation, minimal corruption, no overspending.
Underspending is arguably worse than overspending. Just look at the UK and what 14 years of austerity have done to it.
@@keskonriks710 UK wasn't in the eurozone and could print money as much as they wanted, but France has to adhere to the EU financial rules.
@@TsvetanDimitrov1976 Who is talking about printing money? The labour manifesto of Jeremy Corbyn was fully costed!
@@keskonriks710 _"Just look at the UK and what 14 years of austerity have done to it."_
Austerity is a natural result, when your national debt runs in billions.
Using voteshare as an argument for support is just daft. There are over 200 constituencies where the Ensemble or NPF stood down as a tactical choice! Of course the popular vote share is scewed! Not to mention you didnt even mention what round of voting you are talking about. This is just sloppy work.
Well, the point of the French electoral system is it factors in voters´ preferences if their candidate doesn´t win. So it factors in that most French people voted against having an RN mp.
It´s like in the presidential election, most people decided they´d rather not have Marine Le Pen as president.
In other words, if 40% of people are lunatic enough to want an FN MP, but the 60% of people who aren´t vote against it, then they have no entitlement to the position and that´s a pretty good thing.
RN also had to the most popular votes in the first round of voting without candidates withdrawing so there you go. There's no escaping the fact that RN is the most popular political party in France and this situation is only going to be more solidified in the coming years.
@@MinimmalmythicistBut that would also be true in a proportional representation system. They got 38% of the vote. They'd have to form a coalition with either the LR (if the majority threshold is lower) or Macron. But unlike now, their vote share would vaguely resemble their representation and they'd be the first party in parliament.
@@captainvanisher988 the voters are excluded in that process though,
@@Minimmalmythicist ?? The exact opposite. The voters get proper representation.
The system now doesn't favor the voters or their representation, it favors the establishment parties.
This seems so inefficient
Mbappé has the most followers on IG. How about his platform?
"from far left to center left" could you IMAGINE if the center right allied with the far right. the media would tear them apart. what are they thinking?
The far right is typically racists whereas the far left is typically socialists and communists. The far right aren't known for being more in favour of capitalism and the free market compared to the centre right, they're known for being anti-immigration and anti-education
LFI isn't far-left.
@@LulfsBloodbag _"The far right is typically racists"_
Nope.
@@LulfsBloodbag _"The far right aren't known for being more in favour of capitalism and the free market"_
Far-Right is the epitome of Capitalism and free market economics (Classical Liberalism) .... you just don't have any kind of Far-Right in your country.
@@samrevlej9331 The Communist Party is though, as well as some minor parties that are members of the NFP but with no seats, some of them openly revolutionaries.
It's surprising to me that when a government pushes people further to the right in response to their behavior and actions that same government ends up moving further left.
Clearly proportional representation needs more work, There has been too many hung parliaments on top of the fact it pisses people off having loads of politicians making deals in the background to try and get something working. However in this case there is too much of an ideological split and they simply won't work together.
Sometimes not doing anything for a while is a good thing.
The only thing care about right now is that the centrist party’s colour isn’t white
White is the colour of royalist in France
@@noisikan917 lad the point is that the parliament would look like the the flag🇫🇷 just upside down 🙃
@@keelandoult1137 Ah ok it makes sense x)
WAIT so you're saying the Left and Far-Left alliance to stop Le Pen isn't turning out how they thought it would? Surprised Pikachu Face
Inevitably it won't stop her anyway. It will in this election but it's only a matter of when, not if.
Well, they did stop her have they not?
You coping that Le Pen lost her 100th election in a row?
@@J10005 lmao they are.
@@SammyInnitpeople have been saying this for the past 10 years. « Ok Le Pen lost this election but surely next time will be the one »
I wonder if new popular front would feel that a new government should come from the largest if RN won the most seats. Somehow i doubt it.
And the Entropy of Victory is already starting to eat the victors.
The way TLDR labels parties can be a little bit contentious. Labelling france unbowed as far-left is a bit of a controversial take. The ministry of the interior labels it as left and it doesn't really fit the definition of the far-left being a revolutionnary movement. On the other hand, the ministry of the interior labels the national rally as far right, and while showing the image of the left right spectrum, you put the NFP at "left", which would be accurate, but then put the national rally at "right" which is really just clumsy. I don't believe TLDR actually meant anything by these choices of words, but they should be more careful with them
"Macron Should respect the choice of the voters"
Well, voters chose to give Le Penn most votes.
Beacuse candidates withdrew in the second round
This just in from the news room: THE BOATS ARE ON THEIR WAY!
Didnt Belgium go years without a government and are still fine?
The only thing the center right and far left agree on is replacement of the French people
The center-right doesn't want to replace French people per say but they're okay to implement the old colonial strategy to replace French labour with foreign labour to suppress wages to gain a profit. It terms of mass migration, the far-left see it as "cultural enrichment", the center-right view it as profit for themselves and their cooperate allies. Limitless capitalism and social progressive is what will destroy the Western civilization.
you mean people with such French names as Bardella.
Waiting for the replies.
@@Minimmalmythicist I'm seeing less of them put up with you
@@tomwensrich9602 Whatever the hell that means....
The problem is that typical liberals would rather compromise with fascists than anyone even slightly left of center.
The obvious compromise is to form a coalition between NFP and Ensemble, with the PM coming from the more center leaning part of the NFP, honoring the cooperation between the parties in the election, and allowing the NFP to push their policy agenda and make some of the needed changes, while Ensemble can keep a seat at the table and temper the more extreme elements of the coalition. Both sides of the coalition can claim to be getting things done and governing responsibly, while staying true to their campaign promises of keeping the far-right out of power and also sticking to their policy positions with some reasonable compromises. The PM should come from the NFP for two reasons, first they won the most seat, if Ensemble can't give them the top position in parliament it is a clear betrayal of their voters, and second, it leads to a friendly cohabitation, splitting power between NFP with the PM, and Ensemble with macron as president.
What are you talking about. Macron himself is left of center.
_"The problem is that typical liberals would rather compromise with fascists than anyone even slightly left of center."_
The problem is that you have no clue what you are talking about, and have no clue what the words Liberal / Liberalism and Fascism even mean. Pro tip, they are political enemies.
Why not a coalition between the NFP and centre-left members of Ensemble?
That still isn't enough for a majority. you'd need about 100 members of ensemble to join the alliance. I don't see that happening. And, as said, the center-left would refuse to govern with LFI. So you'd have to take out LFI from the alliance and split the NFP. ANd without LFI, the rest of the NFP would have to have an alliance with ALL of ensemble, and thus the power in government turns into ensemble with a couple of left leaning députés, not the other way round, so the NFP would refuse that.
And this, in essence is the current problem. There can't be a government with all of the NFP, so you'd have to split it. but then, the government would stop being left leaning. So no one on the left would take on that offer.
Come on! Belgium took more than 1 year to form the government. What's new?
1:43 As a guy from ex communist country where my ancestors died of hunger in camp. This is laughable.
French communist party is not a soviet communist party.
I'm sorry for your family. However, the French Communist Party has nothing to do with totalitarianism. It is well respected in France as the three forces that built the Resistance during WW2 Vichy were the gaullists, the communists and the colonies.
yeah, western europeans and their love of communism is just incredibly out-of-touch
@@raphaelmarciano4191 Didn't they use to have close ties with the USSR?
@luernios9075 shhhh the communists (and their somehow even crazier religious LFI brethren) don't like it when people criticise them in any way. They are the perfect manifestation of men (and I don't mean it as human).
4th Republic revival
I like how the establishment just want things to stay as is
France has constitutional laws and mechanism for this exact case.
The problem is, none of the guy in power ( i can't say responsibility, you'll understand why in a second ), wants to use them.
1st, when they say "govern" they mean, making law and regulations. If the parliament is locked for whatever reason, the president can launch as much referendum as he wants. A referendum is a tool to make law out of legitimacy. The law says, that if a referendum is passed, the parliament has no choice but to make a law that strictly abide to the voted law by referendum, they can't deviate or change it.
2nd, the president is the one blocking everything, the parliament also has a referendum, with less power and there's conditions, but hey can, it's the "RIP" Réferendum d'initiative partagée ( literally shared initiative referendum )
3rd, the parliament can destitute the president if he is the one responsible for all the trouble.
So guess how is not taking responsibility when everything is locked ? EACH AND EVERYONE of those guys ! They are not politicians, they all are bureaucrats. They want to continue their carrier, the country or the people is not their concern.
At the end, the people will get their way... French people grew with the "Declaration des Droits de l'Homme et du Citoyen", not the contemporary human rights with its world-village BS, this one is this original of 1789 that differentiate french citizens from other humans and protect french citizens.
There's a line at the end that says something like "If the country bully its people, it's a right and a duty for the french citizens to take arms and overthrow the government".
Current human rights derives from this one universalizing the concepts of human rights while rejecting concepts of citizenship. Surely, nothing can go wrong, right ?
If the NFP breaks down, there could be a Socialists-Ensemble-Les Republicans coalition (with a few independents).
Impossible.
Socialist and Republicains knows that their respective voters would never forgive them for that.
@@Kafei01 what outcome do you see?
@@michaelbirkett4932 NFP govern or no one does and we vote back in 1 year.
@@noisikan917I agree. Imo, I can see the republicans getting even smaller now that the National Rally looks like the main conservative party.
Meaning if there’s more gridlock it’ll probably be between the NFP and the National Rally at the next election.
2:30 The vote share chart is misleading, NFP and Ensemble vote share is weakened by the fact that they withdrew from a lot of consituency, while RN didn"t.
Yes, if wanting to count vote as a proportional election they should use the first round numbers.
2nd round at national level, all parties don't have the same of potential electors.
you can still use the first round where RN finished ahead. This electoral system is just laughable finishing 1st in terms of votes but third in terms seats ☠️
@@reiudfgq3vrh34urthe second round number makes it seems like there’s a gap of over 10% between the RN and the NFP
But if you look at the official numbers for the first round, the RN got 29,26% of the votes and the NFP got 28,06%
@@mrworldwide7387 this is false the first round rn got 33% wtf are you talking about
@@reiudfgq3vrh34ur It's 577 small local elections. You need to win in each of them, you can't only appeal to one part of the population.
I just don't get this after election gridlock. To me it seems pretty obvious that Macron must reach some kind of understanding with the left bloc and form a coalition government with them, as the two groups would hold a majority and this way he can rein in some of their wilder proposals or the ones that go straight agains his major reforms. If he does not follow this route it just makes me think that he didn't really think things through when he called for elections.
@7:07 Sounds like France needs a king!
Macron was just playing 5D chess with everyone all along.
Yeah... Sure
Too bad he has no idea about how it plays.
I think it's time to realize no one is playing 5D chess, Macron fucked up bad, he thought the left would not ally, he thought his party would have been 1 vs 1 with ther RN in most constituency and that he would get the win with the left vote, he was wrong and here we are, that's all.
macron is playing connect 4 with chess pieces
infinity-D chess. So clever it looped back around on itself and became stupid again.
I would like to understand why I never hear you stitter to say "far left" bit Ive heard you say "so called far right" multiple times
To sound more impartial since the media is insistent in calling everyone on the right "far right" and and the most extreme leftists "just left wing"
because NFP is a coalition between many left wing parties ranging from centre-lefts to far-lefts parties, such as greens, social democrats, socialists, communists
@@FinleyUwU what do you mean? Did you get my question?
@@OLBAPPOAWECBRKLFK It's because the left is made up of both far-left and centre-left parties, just as the other guy explained. What do you not get?
Very interesting
I'm from Canada where we have had minority governments plenty of times. Why do European countries like France and the UK seem to think that this isn't possible?
There has been a minority government since 2022 with 248 seats out of 289 for absolute majority. The issue here that the united left only gets to 183 seats, making a potential government very weak, especially since : they are really not open to negociations with other parties, and also they all hate each other and are just trying to keep a straight face. The French system is completely inadapted to form consensus, since everyone thinks about the Presidential elections, no one want to be "in power" when they come
Because you then have the minority deciding on behalf of the majority, which isn't democracy.
It seems, at least to me, that political parties in europe are much more eager to vote out a minority government. In canada that either doesnt happen , or parties wait a few years and only then gang up on the minority government.
Literal communists = left
Strong borders and liberal economic plans = FAR RIGHT
Bruh
The communist party does not have communist ideas anymore, I would say it is even less extreme than Melenchon's party as it's not against the establishment
You guys have brainworms
Tbh I expected better from TLDR but you are right
The communist isn't communist anymore, like labour has give up the revolutionnary ideal. They're social democrats now. On the other hand, the RN not only is linked with a lot of far right organisation (i'm talking monarchists, neo naz*s, white supremacist and all kinds of reactionnaries), but their program explicitly attacks the equality principle, the basis of french demicracy...
So yeah, it's left and far right ! But don't worry, we have plenty of far left parties if you're into that. They just don't do much elections, as it is the tradition of the far left.
The annoying this is if you block people out of discourse because you keep calling them “far right” that just creates eccochambers and that will just result in extremism. This is why the right is growing in the west because nobody wants to have a conversation about borders and anybody who does is labelled racist or “Far Right”
Because in real democracy, parties should find a solution to people's problems, not unite at any cost to prevent one party, which offers a solution!
Germany has the same problem...
Solution? As in a "Final" Solution? How about we DON'T try fascism again, OK kid?
Then how about we don't try communism again? Sounds fair right?@@TheAmericanAmerican
@@alexisvladimir8148 ok deal! Socialism it is! 😁✊️
According to the most recent poll by Ipsos, the main worries of French people are the following ones: purchasing power (40%), crime and violence (31%), immigration (27%), poverty and inequality (25%), climate change (19) and unemployment (11%).
The NR adresses both the economic and the ones related to crime and immigration with much more severity. The NPF does not. Its political programme is a joke: they want to facilitate the arrival or more migrants, to extend the ius solis, save migrants in the Meditarranean and provide all of those migrants with healthcare.
And they also want to artificially raise the minimum wage and impose a 90% tax on revenues beyong 400,000 Euro/year. That won't reduce inflation at all.
The NR addresses both … bla bla… the far right only understands that they can’t solve these issues when they finally get the power to do so! Look at Meloni. She is now governing and from far right she is now not as extreme because she understands the difficulties of governing and that it’s not as easy to actually solve these problems
I support NPF from Nice
Lengthy coalition talks are the norm for European countries that usually govern by coalition i.e. Germany and the Netherlands, France gets to have to fun of months of coalition negotiations like their neighbors do. I still expect some form of center-left majority coalition to form after probably months of negotiation. It may mean having to accept France Unbowed into government, though perhaps with limits on their role like the new Dutch government which is designed to keep Geert Wilders and PVV from doing much damage. In fact the setup of the new Dutch government could be a way forward for France, technocrat PM with agreed limits on more controversial parties and figures in the name of stability.
Why would the left enter government with Macron?