You left out an important factor when discussing "why havent we seen this before". The missing link is the five-sub rule. With five substitutes per game, it is possible to plan strategies that involve a dramatic change in shape, tactics and personnel, at the most crucial point in a contest., If you look at both the Germany and Spain matches, Japan used its fifth sub with more than ten minutes on the clock, and the first four subs all came quickly, at the turning point in the contest. This is something that Moriyasu has been working on for at least the past year. It is a high-risk - high-reward philosophy that the other teams have yet to really comprehend.
Incredibly well said, and very true. I can't believe I forgot to add this into the video, but it's crucial to have 5 subs to make these types of system changes mid match. Thanks for adding this!
Absolutely True.....i think ref should always check VAR when foul is done inside the 18yard box/penalty area. because of ref poor judgement country's dream is shattered like in case of Croatia and Morocco in World Cup semifinal 2022 and many others
It wasn't just the tactics.. The players on Japan's team were willing to run themselves to death and none of them were discouraged at any point or even even close to giving up. It was their mentality and their spirit which made winning possible.
Exactly! They play with courage, as if it is a matter of life or death. They enter the field to win not to lose, and a little mistake can be costly when playing like that. But is amazing how much they have improved.
@@sagecrockett693 no team in the world cup has foreigner. The only two teams with a lot of foreigners is Canada and US but they are nationalized. So don't count as foreigners
@@Elovess Having a citizenship and naturally being a native people are two different things completely. You surely must know this. An African playing for Japan would not naturally have the same motivation to play as a natural Japanese would. Nor would an African be expected to. It is, of course, perfectly natural.
Amazing run by Japan. But they forgot one important detail: PRACTICE PENALTIES. That was a huge mistake. It's almost like cooking an amazing meal but forgetting to add salt.
Croatia ruined so many great potential matchups in this and the last world cup. All credit to them for finding a way to win but it's not entertaining to watch a team play for a 0-0 draw and penalties.
@@mazdakmina9493 aren’t there quite a few games decided by penalties that never get to OT? It seems like there’s a penalty called in the box on one team or the other in nearly every game. If you have one guy for whom those are automatic, you’d win a lot of games.
Sadly Japan lost against Croatia in a very lackluster penalty shoot-out. It's clear that Japan has fantastic team-skills, but with penalties being all about the individual versus the goalie, their style simply did not work for this scenario. I have high hopes for Japan next world cup, though. If they can maintain their excellent team skills and keep practicing penalty shootouts, they can be a very skilled contender.
Their run is already legendary though. Spain and Germany beaten, and getting to penalties with Croatia. If they had beaten Croatia and lose against Brazil, it would've been the best WC story in the decade.
It’s obvious that the issue was not the players skills but their inexperience. The pressure got to them. I could tell that they were going to miss because of the look on their faces. They were very stressed….And ofc the first missed shot affected the mentality of the rest of the players. Japan had very little past experience with penalty kicks on the side Croatia are pros at penalties. Going to the penalties against Croatia was literally the worst possible scenario for Japan. But anyways they gained lots of experience from this World Cup I’m sure they will grow from it.
@@froglifes6829 The only reason Japan beat Spain is because Spain lost against them on purpose in order to not be 1st in group and to not have to play against Croatia and Brazil. And Germany is just bad in the last few years.
We have seen this tactic in the Euro 2004 with Greece. In that tournament Greece defeated Portugal (with a young Ronaldo) twice, The Czech Republic (with Nedved and Co.), France (with Zidane), and tied Spain. They also won the tournament that year against all odds. That actually broke minds and has not since been copied.
AFAIR though George, Greece did that by parking the bus and then scoring goals through (well-practiced) set pieces. What Japan did was completely different.
@@frostyrobot7689 I disagree with you. Greece scored 7 goals that tournament. 3 were from set prices (2 corners and a free kick), 1 penalty and 3 were from counter attacking chances. They did not only score from set pieces. They did have players that could play just not at an elite level. Their defense and goalie play were elite tho.
@@gkandoit Karagounis was a magician with the ball sadly he sucked for Inter these people always try to disregard counter attacking tactics as "parking the bus" as if the wingers from Greece didnt run like madmans to track back and then try to get on deep runs that whole tournament.
The funny thing about Japan is that normally they play in a style similar to Spain. They have the quality players to make it almost as attractive as Spain. Moriyasu figured that they weren't quite as talented as Germany and Spain so he implemented these tactics.
Today was a sad day for Japan. That game was the best of the round of 16 so far. Just 2 more matches to... Japan, please focus on taking some further shots (like Korea did vs Brazil today), and to focus on stronger penalty kicks
The Japanese fans are just awesome. Unfortunately, not many German fans showed up because the German fans were exposed to a campaign of disinformation by German associated media about the reality on the ground in Qatar. A team without fans is a team without spirit. A lot of surprises in FWC in Qatar 2022 .
I loved this video! I don't usually enjoy football but I've been following the world cup a bit for Japan since I'm there at the moment. I never played football growing up so your analysis is really helping me to appreciate the strategy that goes into this. I really believe in you and your channel. This is top tier content and I know you're going to be really big one day 👍
I really love to hear this. I'm hoping to make some more videos like this for football fans and newer football fans and the world cup has been a great platform to grow the game! Thank you for the kind words again :)
Japan actually combine western and asian football this time. Asian football love running like wild horses. In the first half Japan maintained composure and play around possession like most eu teams. But on the second half, they play a typical asian football style of high pressure from the forward position, with mid fielders running around. This completely shocked germany and spain who fundamentally played a eu dominated play style
i should point out the following.. notice how both Japan's and Morocco's roster is dominated by players that play in europe.. this already means their players meet some minimum skill level threshold.. teams like canada, mexic who basically lead concacaf.. or even S. Korea.. have a lack of quality players to even hang with the big boys..
I don't think it's as revolutionary as you make it sound. It surely is unusual to see teams winning a lot of games adjusting their tactics as heavily as Japan did within the span of a week, but it happens. The 5 subs and the unique traits of Japanese culture regarding discipline and hard work may be more important in order to execute any game plan that requires such determination, flexibility and coordination. Luck, also, plays a huge part. Because when you press high on the pitch good possession teams, they might not be used to it, but they have the quality to make you pay in the open space. So, usually many teams try to do it, but they usually fail. One of the reasons this happens is that when you play behind the ball and you keep chasing and filling gaps in space you get more tired than the team that is in possession. So, it is physically very challenging and impressive to achieve such a turnaround. That is were the 5 subs help in refreshing the lineup. The japanese team deserves all the good things that they hopefully achieve in the coming years.
i don't think it's upsetting that japan defeated both germany and spain, japan is a much bigger country not only that but things are changing alot, it isn't the old days anymore. now I'll tell you what is really upsetting, marocco beating portugal. that was a lucky match if you look at how marocco played against portugal, pure luck. now there is only to hope messi and argentina wins this VM otherwise it be kind of empty with two legends saying their want to win VM last time but non of them never did it before end of they career. i can see why people say messi is better then ronaldo, ronaldo scored most goals from penaltys and became burned out from his level, while messi came up the lane and midfield but not so strong on his headers.
Teams like Morocco and japan were so important for the tournament because they made European teams think their possession heavy tactics , I have seen some team which were on the losing side were not willing to go for direct ball and caught off-guard when their opponents did the same like they never defended against long balls. Now it's time to think that instead of just keeping possession how can you use against it to your opponents and playing counter attacking football and relying on your skillful players and compromising little bit possession in this process is not a sin.
Crazy enough, I feel like I saw Morocco playing an adaptive style of ball. Each team they played against they did try adapting to their play style but countering that style if that makes sense? Either way I really was proud of how Morocco handled themselves this cup
Great video, I was thinking about similar things when I was watching the matches. Mainstream football shows and media will just write off these wins from Japan as a bad performance from the "bigger" teams, when the fact is, Japan were just more efficient in their attack. Obviously, some of the goals were lucky, but I think if they hadn't gone in or counted, Japan would've kept pushing until they got a lead so that they can switch to defending again.
The mistake is that mainstream football shows mistake Germany for 2014 Germany and Spain for 2010 Spain. There's no Klose, Podolski, young Muller etc to make Germany's style work anymore, not to mention the defense is lousy and constantly exposed. Germany is really a top 10-15 team while Japan is prob somewhere between 15-20 it was a very minor upset. Likewise Spain doesn't have Inestia, Xabi, Xavi, and Villa anymore. Sure they can still hold possession like the old bunch but they can't score or do anything w/ it when they need to. Morocco never really worked on D and never looked tired.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer disagree. The shots on goal ratios for both first half's show japan were lucky not to be a few goals down. They rode their luck. 3-4-3 is not a new system and teams changing systems mid match is very common, especially in tournament football. Literally been done for decades. Just cause its new to you doesn't mean its a new tactic. Just m3ans your new to football
@@elliotwilliams7421 Brighton yesterday played 2-3-5 against Arsenal when they needed to score goals although De Zerbi subs and tactics are always 10 minutes late lol
This content might show most logical analysis. Comments of the viewers as well. also the editor does helpful work. You logically explains how actuary tactical Mr. Moriyasu was. This gonna a be bit long text but I leave this if somebody might be curious. Professional football league of Japan has launched early 90's. 1993, Japan had a qualifier game against Iraq in Doha. Japan was leading the game till the second half. if they could finish as winner, they could've entered WC for the first time in history. However team Iraq made a tie shoot on add time. Team Japan already had been on cloud of nine during game then fell to the turf, into tears. It is well known story 'tragedy of Doha.' Mr.Moriyasu was there as MF. guess most of Japanese fans watched those 2022 games, recalling the teardrop memory that every game'd be reversed for a second. I'm waiting your new contents. 😊
Yeah. Croatia is much less focused on possession than Spain. While Spain use it's all resources to keep possession, Croatia has the highly agile, fluid and star filled midfield who can keep the possession on their own soo damn well. And so, they have more strikers to commit forward and more people to mark Japanese strikers and defend behind. It will be hard .. really hard
The team that uses a similar concept (high press) when they play against stronger teams is Newcastle United. Japan applies high press tactics in the second half but Newcastle United applies it at the start of the game. Newcastle will score first then defend the lead. Tottenham vs Newcastle (23 Oct) is a good example.
It was a tactical masterclass.. that is what I've seen as well. Realized it in some situations where their players looked like being arranged with a ruler on a chessboard
Drop back tactics are extra effective in the World Cup because the attacking tactics for most of the teams aren't thorough and scoring is usually very low, so it's much easier to get a lucky goal and then all out defend. A lot of teams also tend to panic and resort to lower skill attacks when losing, like pushing down the line and putting in hopeful crosses (seen a lot in Argentina vs Saudi Arabia and Morocco vs Portugal) or trying to drive through compact defenders where all they need is to put out one leg to stop the ball then boot it down the pitch (also seen in Argentina vs Saudi Arabia).
You just described the most basic tactic for a weaker team that needs to win? You play a defensive style, but are forced to go on the offense when the opponents are up (which happened against both Germany and Spain). It worked out in their favor both times to grab the lead and then they immediately went back to their defensive game plan, because they know the opponents are generally the stronger team. Even bringing in fresh offensive substitutions late into the game is something that regularly happens. For example, the Netherlands brought in 2 fresh attackers near the end of the match against Argentina to bring the game back from 0-2 to 2-2, as well.
Just wanted to point out that this group wasn't the most difficult one at the World Cup. Group G was rated the 6th most difficult of all time. Interestingly enough three of the same teams (Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia) were also in the 11th most difficult group of all time in 2018.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Didn't mean to nitpick over what's a great post! Thanks so much for sharing it. PS Might explain to some extent why Brazil tends to run out of gas as the tournament goes on. PPS If you think Brazil is ticked, how do you think Serbia and Switzerland feel? Yikes! Almost like you have to begin the tournament with a big "L" around your neck!
great video. one thing that i would nominate as a detail to add for future analysis, how 5 subs has changed modern football. having those subs allows for more tactical flexibility, and the ability for managers to change the game. overall, great video though. great points. cheers.
That's called offensive pressing, and requires a lot of stamina and 11 tactically intelligent players who are also decently skillfull relative to world class. It"s nothing revolutionary and if the skill level is too different between teams, this is way too risky. Japan us a good team on a level with the US, Croatia or Marocco. They all can beat any team on any day.
its interesting to know that many people critised moriyasu heavily his team selection prior to the world cup for leaving the likes of kyogo and hatate for people like ueda. Since ueda was lackluster when he played, maybe kyogo could have been a better choice. But for sure we will never know for sure
To play defense and then counter-attack at blitzkrieg speed once you have the ball in possession takes enormous skill. The weaker team usually cannot pull this off because they don't have forward that can score a goal with high successful rate. Basically, Argentina uses this tactic to score over France in the final. The 2nd goal they scored against France is a textbook example in counterattack. Just three passes traverse the whole length of the soccer field. They could do that because they have Messi. BTW, the 2022 final is once in a lifetime final because world cup final is usually boring to death when both teams played super cautiously. Morrocco also played counterattack nicely, but they lack the forward that can put the ball into the net. This was the case when they played against France. In the game where Japan played against Germany, the second goal Japan scored is world class. The angle to score is so narrow that it takes player like Neymar to score. You don't expect team like Japan to score such a goal. Yet they managed to do just that. The fact is, to beat a world class team, you need counterattack at blitzkrieg speed. It is much harder to defense when everything is on the move. Simple as that. The fact that France lost to Argentina is because they could not do that to Argentina and Argentina could do that to France. It takes two Mbappe to pull that off but unfortunately, France only got one Mbappe in the team.
it's a gme of chances and probability and sometimes not really. one lucky shot and it's in. nontheless japan and croatia both playd a well planned strategic game .
To think that croatia also win against brazil with a penalty shoot out, world cup 2022 is really full of surprise and japan definitely the best asian team in the tournament
At first it look like italia catenaccio and France 2018 (Deschamps was trained in Italia). It is the idea that to win the team must concede one less goal than it scores (and not score one more goal than it concedes). The real revolution is the positional change during the match. Before it was rather versatile players who could bring a temporary surplus.
I don’t think it would be odd to see Japan on the seminal or even a final. What we can see so far in this tournament having the best players doesn’t mean having the best team. And the discipline of Japanese culture itself make their psychological state even better when the result is not going their favour. Be careful with Japan.
I don't think it would be crazy either. They've proven they can be a threat to the best teams. I think the hardest thing for Japan would be teams sitting back and forcing them to attack into them like Costa Rica did.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Yupp I agree, and when it comes into that, they REALLY need players like Mitoma who can take multiple players on the run and, with a very efficient finishing
I’ve watched only the first half of the game with Germany (stupid work) and I was extremely impressed by the almost perfect defense Japan showed. Never out of position, gained every ball back and even if Germany shot, no real threat was ever there. The first and only mistake the D did, turned into Germany scoring but man I was impressed. I think we’re going to see great things from Japan in the future
Japan got slaughtered by Germany, Germany just made 2 terrible mistakes and Japan capitalised. Germany like doubled japan's expected goals and coulda easily been up 3-0 at halftime
@@TheDgenX finally someone who sees it! They were extremely lucky as well Germany hit the post a few times, but it was Germanys fault too not using a true striker like Füllkrug from the beginning.
I disagree. It was a tactic that relied on luck. Their lack of creativity was exposed while playing against weaker offensive teams who defended more that Germany and Spain.
Japan doesn't reveal their true strategy until the 2nd half. In the first half, you learn about the opponent as much as you can and then strategize during half-time, but Spain and Germany weren't able to.
Japanese culture makes it uniquely suited to modern football. Sumo for pushing and shoving, and Kabuki theatre for elaborate gesticulation towards the referee.
You forgot to mention that in order for Japan to have pulled this off at this level, they took the least amount of domestic league players as possible with most of their roster playing in Europe. Something USA needs to do in order to be more successful in high level tournaments like this. But nope, they prefer to promote their low level league where its best players aren't even American.
A lot of people compare their results to 2004 Greece, but I beg to differ. 2004 Greece resorted to their phyisical strength, height. Japan deosn't have the height, instead they have the pace and stamina. Look at Maeda's stats in the match against Spain. Japan's tactics is to give everything they have in the first 10-20 mins of the second have after they send in their key attacking players before the other side adapts. Japan overwhelmed both Spain and Germany until the 2nd goal. As Luis Enrique said, "If Japan wanted a 3rd( or 4th) goal they could've got it". Japan has confidence in their collective defense so they decided to park a bus instead of exhausting their players.
Thank you for this amazing football insight. I have learned absolutely nothing new except for the mention of the new substitution changes.ie 5 sub rule.
I feel like Argentina's technicals and tacticals were the best this year, for the first half or for most of the game. Please do a video on that if you agree or disagree.
Nobody's correctly commenting on how spain ⚽ didn't need to win their match to advance. 🥅 Furthermore, spain losing to Japan, meant Germany was out. It was in Spain's best interest to actually lose to Japan. When you're guaranteed to advance, good teams rest their rosters.
This is modern football. Teams like Leeds and Brentford have been relying on a press to steal possessions to generate few but high quality opportunities on goal. Also Morocco did a similar tactic obviously with different personnel. There was a thought going into the tournament that you could see real success for teams who could effectively play this style. Someone else in the comments mentioned that the 5 subs help overcome the fitness issues with this approach. It should also be said that beat this style you cede possession to the pressing side. Force them to actually have offense develop. And in that game Japan lost. It only works against high possession sides.
I am a Japanese football fan. Japan's plan against Germany and Spain is "Mainly defense in 1st half, then massively attack in 2nd half " as you clearly explained in this video. But I guess this plan of manager Moriyasu was actually inspired by the recent same tactic of Gamba Osaka (in Japan's J1 league). Keisuke Honda and Ritsu Doan belonged to the academy of Gamba Osaka. Here is the explanation of my guess. I've been a fan of Gamba for 30 years. Japan's previous manager in 2018 Russia World cup was "Akira Nishino", who had been also a manager of Gamba Osaka for 10 yrs (2002-2011). Nishino loves ATTACKING style and our Gamaba won many league titles. After this period, the next manager Hasegawa created opposite DIFFENSIVE strong style (2013-2017) and also won so many league championships. And the recent young manager Tsuneyasu Miyamoto (2020-2021), who was the legendary captain in Japan national team, finally FUSE those DEFENSIVE Hasegawa-style and ATTACKING Nishino-style in GAMBA. That was "1st half, mainly defense, then mainly attack in 2nd attack". Originally, Miyamoto did this hybrid strategy to save players' power for the second half because there were so many veteran players in GAMBA who were not able to do the hard jobs for 90 minutes. Both Nishino and Miyamto joined Japan football association in 2022, and they supported Japan's national team and Moriyasu for 2022 World cup in Qatar. My guess is that Moriyasu probably and directly had discussion on the measure against Germany and Spain with Nishino and Miyamoto. I guess Moriyasu then finally the hybrid tactic of Miyamoto's Gamaba and also arranged 2nd half style to SUPER-AGGRESIVE with five FWs because we have very fast and skillful wingers, Mitoma and Jyunya Ito. 5 That's just my opinion, but I believe Moriyasu came up with this super-offensive plan through the cooperation of Akira Nishino.
That's so cool, I had no idea about any of this. Really interesting to know where he got his ideas from, and very cool that they came inspired from a J league strategy. I will definitely have to look into it because it seems like this type of strategy could become more popular around the world after seeing japan use it
Yes, it's so cool even for us. Moriyasu used this unexpected strategy. During World cup preliminaries, Moriyasu was sometimes critisized by Japanese fans that he is too defensive and had no tactics for attacking. Everyone though Moriyasu has no talent for preparing good strategy, but in fact he hid it before the match against Germany. Another important thing is 1st half can be thought as offensive. Taizen Maeda, center Forward, has the stamina and speed to chase around the goal keeper and the first defenders. Take (Kubo), Maeda, and Junya Ito also accomplish powerful Gegenpressing on the middle are in the first half. That's also the important key for the surprise attack of the start of 2nd half. Their aggressive pressing in 1st half promises 0-0 or at least 0-1 result in 1st half. And their pressing can also make physical fatigues even though we were defensive in 1st half. I also think the high-speed counter attack of Angelos Postecoglou (manager of Celtics) also inspired this Japan's strategy. Yokohama Marinos with Postecoglou become the champion in J1 league in 2019. Yokohama Marinos is owned by City Group and Postecoglou newly used Guardiola's "Manchester City" defensive-and-attacking style for the first time in Japan. In 2019, Postecoglou used Maeda Taizen as center forward. He also adopted City's 5 lane style and fast counterattack transition (taught by City group trainers). Then Postecoglou transferrd Maeda to his Celtics and now Celtics also uses City-like five lane attacking. So I think the success of Maeda and Postecoglou also played another important role and inspired Moriyasu (and Nishino and Miyamoto).
@@masakihayashi8054 Postecoglou is quickly becoming a favorite manager of mine. That's really cool to hear about his impact in Japan and now his success with Celtic. It seems like the J league is ahead tactically of the other leagues
@@SpreadSheetSoccer I don't think our league is ahead but simply "unique". European-sytle and J-league-sytle can be mixed by foreign managers such as Postecoglou. Those mixed sytles in J league just become unique and unseen ones for European and other nations.
Watching this video as an amateur that hardly played the game, my observation from the current world cup is that Argentina starts off the game with these tactics, scores twice and then try to park the bus Let's see if it is an effective tactic against Morocco
I like the thought process but it's a little different for a team like Argentina. Typically we see good teams like Argentina play their typical style of high pressing and possession throughout the game. Once good teams establish that 2 goal lead, they will begin to play a bit more defensive. They don't have to try and play for those two goals, so you won't see them playing as risky with high pressure. In games like the World cup where every game matters, the last 10 minutes of games where Argentina are leading become ultra defensive because the other team is desperately trying to score a goal. You're absolutely right that Japan did a similar thing to Argentina, but the special part about Japan's idea was they waited to play their "risky" high pressure style until the second half to catch their opponent off guard! I hope this makes sense
Unfortunate indeed, but this result is only from the first phase, Japan Blue Lock Project continues for the second phase. Let see how it will unravel in 2026 😉
If Japan can keep this up they will be able to learn more in the next 4 years, with enough matches they can get them way better to make a great team and if they're coach can help them with this tactic that they can change they're football skills from 2026 and on.
I love your explanation and it's far more clear now. What about their defeat against Costa Rica? Japan dominated but failed to score one or two goals. Why?
It's very similar to how I was describing the typical gameplan of weaker teams vs better opponents. Costa Rica were considerably worse than each team in the group, and even against Japan they sat back and defended while waiting for Japan to make a mistake. Japan had 13 shots to Costa Rica's 4, but Costa Rica was able to score from one of their mistakes and defend the rest of the match. It's very ironic actually
@@SpreadSheetSoccer I am a Japanese but personally think the analogy of "Japan beating Spain and Germany" to "Costa Rica beating Japan" is a lot of exaggeration. When I watched the Costa Rica game, I was bored to sleep in the first half. The performance of the players like Kamada was the worst; nothing remotely comparable to the spectacular passing football of Germany and Spain in their first half against Japan. Espeically, I thought Germany had many scoring chances. On the other hand, the quality of 13 shots by Japan you mentioned, I feel, were not at all high. Japan seriously lacked the creativity to make use of spaces. This, I think, is symbolized by the fact that they could not select Furuhashi Kyogo of Celtics (instead they selected Maeda Daizen). Moriyasu's team had little imagination of the attackers running into spaces and passers supplying high quality balls in spaces where there is nobody. I think Japan thus lost against Costa Rica due to the mixture of loss of stamina (both physical and mental), underestimation and serious lack of individual skill. In the Asian preliminary, they were already notorious of not being able to create chances against the lesser opponents with narrow zone defence (I understand that this is not the case with Spain). I am very happy that Japan showed us what you explained in this video, but I sincerely hope that they will step up a lot further in using spaces in the next world cup, and hopefully Furuhashi will be a member.
Morocco ran nearly an identical style of play. The problem with sitting back without a comfortable lead, is similar to boxing in my mind. You can only slip, pivot, shell so many times before you get caught. The reason you see a more balanced approach so often is because it works more consistently. Morocco shocked a lot of people with their play as well, but just like Japan, they’ll be watching from home. I’m not knocking the creativity and talent, I am just saying that once “the cat is out of the bag”, most top tier teams are going to game plan for that approach. At that point it’s down to the day and individual quality (which BTW, is usually the one thing that matters above all else). Upsets do happen, but they’re obviously not that common or said team wouldn’t be an “underdog”. I love football, played in high school and college, even coached a bit afterwards and I am a stats nerd as well and the numbers do bare out what I am saying. If you apply the same chess metric as your analogy but to individual players, not the team as a whole and then tally up the numbers, the side with the greater total wins in the neighborhood of 85% of the time. There’s obviously a lot more math I’d need to do for an EXACT figure, but let’s account for a variance of +\- 7% and call it a day. None of the other metrics are as important as individual quality (barring poor team cohesion, ego issues, etc.).
I would agree in the sense that individual quality matters more in international games than in club games. International games are less complex tactically than club games simply due to teams having less time together. I'm actually going to have a video on this topic coming out soon, but I think at the club level while having better individual players does matter, club teams can developed better systems with less "good" players and still be a formidable team. PSG didn't win the league last year although they had the best squad.
I agree with your statement as well, international and club play are world’s apart in so many ways. I should have clarified that was what we were conversing about. Also, there were multiple variables that I didn’t take the time/space to account for and I am sure that didn’t help with clarity. I am by no means saying “the team with the most superstars wins”. I didn’t want to bore anyone reading with a wall of text, but a condensed form in a phrase would be “depth of quality”. When a side can bring on substitutes that are as good as your “superstars”, that’s a proper task overcoming it. I know that football is a game that can be simple or punishingly complex (on a physics level), there are innumerable intangibles that can swing a match and men aren’t machines, nobody bats 1,000 or scores every time. The more I reflect on my earlier statement, I realize how foolish it is to attempt a simple “do this & win” formula (if you want to call it that). That’s why it’s the beautiful game though, everyone sees it just a little differently and it means something to each of them in their own way. I apologize for the lengthy comment, love the channel! Fantastic chat, hope to do it again. Happy Holidays!
Pragmatic style of football is usually best for tournaments, its boring and unaattractive but it produces results, Germany and Spain choose to be dominating and stylish to their detriment. For Italy its a hit or miss, Brazil and France due to sheer talent, Argentina by magic, and England because its coming home 🤣
I don't disagree with what your saying. Perhaps this is the beauty of Japan's tactics because if you're Germany or Spain, and your opponent gives you free possession in the 1st half, you'll most certainly take it.
Germany had the highest expected goals out of any team in the group stage with 10. They easily couldve slotted 2 more in on japan if they finished better, they had 13 shots in the first half. Playing that pragmatic style might produce a few upsets out of luck, but it won't win you a tournament
This discussion reminded me somewhat of the old 1960's Italian Catenaccio, which seems to share some characteristics with Japan's strategy, while clearly being quite different. One of the main ideas of Catenaccio was to run an unbalanced formation that was able to concentrate power. This strikes me as similar conceptually to the strategy of bringing in a lot of fresh legs all at once in the second half when everyone is starting to tire and going all-out for a short period of time, which is concentrating power in time rather than space. Aggressive pressing is extremely effective, but you can't do it for the whole game. Austria used a similar tactic against Italy in last year's Euro, where they alternated parking the bus with short periods of aggressive pressing. So low risk for most of the game.
Japan shut up everybody, only lost to Crotia for being "too green" playing with the big sharks but the next cup we will see the Blue Lock project materialized... 🔥
This is the power of homogeneity vs diversity. An homogenous team that actually loves their country and national identity is able to do wonders. I say that as a brazilian. The lack of passion in our current team is reflective of our current cultural state.
if you watch some of Anime soccer anime.... you cant help but believe Japan will turn up in some way, based on the creativity and thought given to the show and game and realism
Lets face the hard truth: Japan was really bad in the first half against germany, 9 out of 10 times, they are behind with 2 or more goals at halftime. Kudos to them for adapting in the second half, but this was only possible because they got lucky in the first half and because the german coach made some mindboggling mistakes in response to the changes Japan made
Japan made good adjustments in the second half of games against Spain and germany and took for granted the game against costa Rica. against Croatia i think they played passively in the second half and took bad penalty kicks. they are a team on the rise and will be ranked higher next year😀
I think expected ELO of the second-place qualifier is a better measure than average ELO of the difficulty of a group. Measuring it that way, there are probably significantly fewer than 13 historical groups harder than this group. For example, when measuring in this way (and using second-highest rated participant as an approximation for expected ELO of second-place qualifier, which should be a good approximation since the opportunity to play many qualifying games increases the likelihood of strong teams qualifying consistently), this group becomes significantly harder (with a second-highest rating of 1963) than the other group in 2022 higher on the list at number 6 (2022 Group G, with a second-highest rating of 1902).
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Sure, the justification is that because there are two qualifiers, the expected rating of the lower qualifier is a better approximation of the difficulty of a group because that's the team you have to beat to qualify. For example, it doesn't matter that much if one team in the group is the best team in the world as long as the other three teams are all fairly weak, that would still be an easy group overall because the bar to qualification is low because you don't have to outperform the best team in the world. Measuring it this way (and using the second-highest approximation, which approaches exactness as the number of qualifying games increases), the groups in the article can be reranked as follows (I did not include groups outside of the article, which may overtake these groups at the top when measuring this way): 1970 Group 3: 2036 (+0) 1982 Group 6: 2001 (+10) 2014 Group B: 1986 (-1) 2018 Group B: 1969 (+11) 2022 Group E: 1963 (+9) 1978 Group 3: 1961 (-3) 1978 Group 4: 1946 (+2) 1974 Group 2: 1944 (-4) 2014 Group G: 1942 (-2) 1978 Group 1: 1926 (-5) 2002 Group F: 1925 (-3) 2022 Group G: 1902 (-6) 1986 Group E: 1892 (+0) 2018 Group E: 1889 (-3) 1994 Group E: 1863 (-5)
@@joeljude9180 This is very interesting, I'm so glad you shared it. I will have to keep this in mind for future videos because I do think Elo ratings are vastly underrated in the football world.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer You're welcome :) By the way the numbers in parentheses are placement changes, not ELO changes, just realized that could be confusing.
The Asian game and players are evolving. This was happening over the past few decades. Their leagues have improved their players are getting bigger contracts. Everyone was looking at the Afican players and teams but although they have flair strength and creativity. The Asians have excellent technique they have a perfect command of the basics they are supremely conditioned very disciplined very tactical very good individual football IQ and they play the game at breakneck speed.
You left out an important factor when discussing "why havent we seen this before". The missing link is the five-sub rule.
With five substitutes per game, it is possible to plan strategies that involve a dramatic change in shape, tactics and personnel, at the most crucial point in a contest., If you look at both the Germany and Spain matches, Japan used its fifth sub with more than ten minutes on the clock, and the first four subs all came quickly, at the turning point in the contest. This is something that Moriyasu has been working on for at least the past year. It is a high-risk - high-reward philosophy that the other teams have yet to really comprehend.
Incredibly well said, and very true. I can't believe I forgot to add this into the video, but it's crucial to have 5 subs to make these types of system changes mid match. Thanks for adding this!
This situational awareness on a tactical level is widely used in baseball. But yes, football tactics, up until now have been locked in.
@@avroair I agree
Morocco is employing this substitution strategy too
Absolutely True.....i think ref should always check VAR when foul is done inside the 18yard box/penalty area. because of ref poor judgement country's dream is shattered like in case of Croatia and Morocco in World Cup semifinal 2022 and many others
It wasn't just the tactics.. The players on Japan's team were willing to run themselves to death and none of them were discouraged at any point or even even close to giving up. It was their mentality and their spirit which made winning possible.
Exactly! They play with courage, as if it is a matter of life or death.
They enter the field to win not to lose, and a little mistake can be costly when playing like that.
But is amazing how much they have improved.
I believe this is what cost them the game against Croatia. They had tired legs from all the running
And why would that be??? Maybe because they are Japanese playing for Japan while other teams use foreigners that lack the same motivation?
@@sagecrockett693 no team in the world cup has foreigner.
The only two teams with a lot of foreigners is Canada and US but they are nationalized.
So don't count as foreigners
@@Elovess Having a citizenship and naturally being a native people are two different things completely. You surely must know this. An African playing for Japan would not naturally have the same motivation to play as a natural Japanese would. Nor would an African be expected to. It is, of course, perfectly natural.
Amazing run by Japan. But they forgot one important detail: PRACTICE PENALTIES. That was a huge mistake. It's almost like cooking an amazing meal but forgetting to add salt.
same as brazil sadly
Wow. They ran themselves ragged. They dead tired. Penalties post extra time is fitness not practice.
Croatia ruined so many great potential matchups in this and the last world cup. All credit to them for finding a way to win but it's not entertaining to watch a team play for a 0-0 draw and penalties.
France too
@@mazdakmina9493 aren’t there quite a few games decided by penalties that never get to OT? It seems like there’s a penalty called in the box on one team or the other in nearly every game. If you have one guy for whom those are automatic, you’d win a lot of games.
Sadly Japan lost against Croatia in a very lackluster penalty shoot-out.
It's clear that Japan has fantastic team-skills, but with penalties being all about the individual versus the goalie, their style simply did not work for this scenario.
I have high hopes for Japan next world cup, though. If they can maintain their excellent team skills and keep practicing penalty shootouts, they can be a very skilled contender.
Their run is already legendary though. Spain and Germany beaten, and getting to penalties with Croatia. If they had beaten Croatia and lose against Brazil, it would've been the best WC story in the decade.
It’s obvious that the issue was not the players skills but their inexperience. The pressure got to them. I could tell that they were going to miss because of the look on their faces. They were very stressed….And ofc the first missed shot affected the mentality of the rest of the players.
Japan had very little past experience with penalty kicks on the side Croatia are pros at penalties. Going to the penalties against Croatia was literally the worst possible scenario for Japan.
But anyways they gained lots of experience from this World Cup I’m sure they will grow from it.
@@MsFbhacker Croatia went to penalties in 2018 multiple times so this is nothing new but beating spain was impressive
@@froglifes6829 The only reason Japan beat Spain is because Spain lost against them on purpose in order to not be 1st in group and to not have to play against Croatia and Brazil. And Germany is just bad in the last few years.
@@derbigpr500 Thats just cope. Spain wouldnt lose on purpose to Japan. Come back to reality.
We have seen this tactic in the Euro 2004 with Greece. In that tournament Greece defeated Portugal (with a young Ronaldo) twice, The Czech Republic (with Nedved and Co.), France (with Zidane), and tied Spain. They also won the tournament that year against all odds. That actually broke minds and has not since been copied.
AFAIR though George, Greece did that by parking the bus and then scoring goals through (well-practiced) set pieces. What Japan did was completely different.
@@frostyrobot7689 I disagree with you. Greece scored 7 goals that tournament. 3 were from set prices (2 corners and a free kick), 1 penalty and 3 were from counter attacking chances. They did not only score from set pieces. They did have players that could play just not at an elite level. Their defense and goalie play were elite tho.
@@gkandoit Karagounis was a magician with the ball sadly he sucked for Inter
these people always try to disregard counter attacking tactics as "parking the bus" as if the wingers from Greece didnt run like madmans to track back and then try to get on deep runs that whole tournament.
wish mainstream sports broadcast will show stuff like this instead of gossip and goat debates lol. thank you for this one.
Of course!
The funny thing about Japan is that normally they play in a style similar to Spain. They have the quality players to make it almost as attractive as Spain. Moriyasu figured that they weren't quite as talented as Germany and Spain so he implemented these tactics.
Today was a sad day for Japan. That game was the best of the round of 16 so far. Just 2 more matches to... Japan, please focus on taking some further shots (like Korea did vs Brazil today), and to focus on stronger penalty kicks
They'll probably solve penalty kicks by World Cup 2026
Japans penalty game is seriously solid, but for whatever reason they put their defensive line on penalty’s against a really solid PK team in Croatia
If you can't place it into the corners with power. You are better off smashing it down the middle.
Not sure if Korea is a great example of how to play...
The Japanese fans are just awesome.
Unfortunately, not many German fans showed up because the German fans were exposed to a campaign of disinformation by German associated media about the reality on the ground in Qatar. A team without fans is a team without spirit.
A lot of surprises in FWC in Qatar 2022 .
It's the Japanese way, silence, then a great rush, the GREAT BANZAI CHARGE. It's all about psychology.
Exactly
Next game they culd duit opozite...
The Japanese coach is a genius.
Ask any japanese people he actually really is Ole Solksjaer of japan
agree. A genius
He never done one thing new here. Its old tactics
I loved this video! I don't usually enjoy football but I've been following the world cup a bit for Japan since I'm there at the moment. I never played football growing up so your analysis is really helping me to appreciate the strategy that goes into this. I really believe in you and your channel. This is top tier content and I know you're going to be really big one day 👍
I really love to hear this. I'm hoping to make some more videos like this for football fans and newer football fans and the world cup has been a great platform to grow the game! Thank you for the kind words again :)
Japan actually combine western and asian football this time. Asian football love running like wild horses. In the first half Japan maintained composure and play around possession like most eu teams. But on the second half, they play a typical asian football style of high pressure from the forward position, with mid fielders running around. This completely shocked germany and spain who fundamentally played a eu dominated play style
私はイラク🇮🇶出身で、子供の頃からムスタファという名前で、評判の良い日本人の話を聞いているので、大人の言葉はありません 私は立派な日本人を探しています、私は日本人が良い評判の人々であることを知っています、そして私は現在40歳で、立派で親切🌷な日本人が大好きです 私は日本の🎌チームを愛し、侍❤を励まします、私はあなた方全員を愛しています❤
Salaam Aleikum! you are from Iraq right? How do you live in Iraq? And can you tell us about today's Iraq and how to get to Iraq?
Incredible video, this deserves far more views.
Thank you! I really appreciate the support :)
I like how Japan built the football squad
i should point out the following.. notice how both Japan's and Morocco's roster is dominated by players that play in europe.. this already means their players meet some minimum skill level threshold.. teams like canada, mexic who basically lead concacaf.. or even S. Korea.. have a lack of quality players to even hang with the big boys..
Also very true!
I don't think it's as revolutionary as you make it sound. It surely is unusual to see teams winning a lot of games adjusting their tactics as heavily as Japan did within the span of a week, but it happens. The 5 subs and the unique traits of Japanese culture regarding discipline and hard work may be more important in order to execute any game plan that requires such determination, flexibility and coordination. Luck, also, plays a huge part. Because when you press high on the pitch good possession teams, they might not be used to it, but they have the quality to make you pay in the open space. So, usually many teams try to do it, but they usually fail. One of the reasons this happens is that when you play behind the ball and you keep chasing and filling gaps in space you get more tired than the team that is in possession. So, it is physically very challenging and impressive to achieve such a turnaround. That is were the 5 subs help in refreshing the lineup. The japanese team deserves all the good things that they hopefully achieve in the coming years.
3-4-3 is not a new system.
@@elliotwilliams7421 Indeed, it was popularised by Cruyff in Barca, a good 40 years back.
@@clockworkfrustration total football
If you watch the premiership league it happens all the time
I was going to write the same. This guy does better videos. He sounds naive here. There is nothing new here!
i don't think it's upsetting that japan defeated both germany and spain,
japan is a much bigger country not only that but things are changing alot,
it isn't the old days anymore.
now I'll tell you what is really upsetting, marocco beating portugal.
that was a lucky match if you look at how marocco played against portugal, pure luck.
now there is only to hope messi and argentina wins this VM
otherwise it be kind of empty with two legends saying their want to win VM last time
but non of them never did it before end of they career.
i can see why people say messi is better then ronaldo,
ronaldo scored most goals from penaltys and became burned out from his level,
while messi came up the lane and midfield but not so strong on his headers.
Very smart coach. That's also why Japanese have some of the leading companies in the world. Teamwork
Teams like Morocco and japan were so important for the tournament because they made European teams think their possession heavy tactics , I have seen some team which were on the losing side were not willing to go for direct ball and caught off-guard when their opponents did the same like they never defended against long balls. Now it's time to think that instead of just keeping possession how can you use against it to your opponents and playing counter attacking football and relying on your skillful players and compromising little bit possession in this process is not a sin.
In tournament like this, winning thru all legal means is way more important than just keeping possession..
This happens all the time. There has always been a dark horse in World Cup history.
@@linuxjodi4311 that's what I said.
Crazy enough, I feel like I saw Morocco playing an adaptive style of ball. Each team they played against they did try adapting to their play style but countering that style if that makes sense? Either way I really was proud of how Morocco handled themselves this cup
The New Zealand team ran the same 3-5-3 formation in 2010 and went through the tournament undefeated.
Great video, I was thinking about similar things when I was watching the matches. Mainstream football shows and media will just write off these wins from Japan as a bad performance from the "bigger" teams, when the fact is, Japan were just more efficient in their attack. Obviously, some of the goals were lucky, but I think if they hadn't gone in or counted, Japan would've kept pushing until they got a lead so that they can switch to defending again.
Exactly. There is some luck involved but without Japan's great game planning they aren't getting into the opportunities to get lucky
The mistake is that mainstream football shows mistake Germany for 2014 Germany and Spain for 2010 Spain. There's no Klose, Podolski, young Muller etc to make Germany's style work anymore, not to mention the defense is lousy and constantly exposed. Germany is really a top 10-15 team while Japan is prob somewhere between 15-20 it was a very minor upset. Likewise Spain doesn't have Inestia, Xabi, Xavi, and Villa anymore. Sure they can still hold possession like the old bunch but they can't score or do anything w/ it when they need to. Morocco never really worked on D and never looked tired.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer disagree.
The shots on goal ratios for both first half's show japan were lucky not to be a few goals down. They rode their luck.
3-4-3 is not a new system and teams changing systems mid match is very common, especially in tournament football. Literally been done for decades.
Just cause its new to you doesn't mean its a new tactic. Just m3ans your new to football
@@elliotwilliams7421 Brighton yesterday played 2-3-5 against Arsenal when they needed to score goals although De Zerbi subs and tactics are always 10 minutes late lol
This content might show most logical analysis. Comments of the viewers as well. also the editor does helpful work.
You logically explains how actuary tactical Mr. Moriyasu was.
This gonna a be bit long text but I leave this if somebody might be curious.
Professional football league of Japan has launched early 90's.
1993, Japan had a qualifier game against Iraq in Doha. Japan was leading the game till the second half. if they could finish as winner, they could've entered WC for the first time in history.
However team Iraq made a tie shoot on add time. Team Japan already had been on cloud of nine during game then fell to the turf, into tears.
It is well known story 'tragedy of Doha.' Mr.Moriyasu was there as MF. guess most of Japanese fans watched those 2022 games, recalling the teardrop memory that every game'd be reversed for a second.
I'm waiting your new contents. 😊
Thanks for sharing that is a very cool story! I really enjoyed watching japan and hope to see them compete at the next world cup!
I think their biggest test will be their next game against Croatia
It can be that, but if Japan and Brazil come to the next round, I'd say the next biggest test of these tatics will be Japan x Brazil
@@leonardoeliel2178 Would be an incredible tactical battle that I want to see
It's 1-1 now, hoping for Japan to pull through victorious 🙏🏽
Yeah. Croatia is much less focused on possession than Spain. While Spain use it's all resources to keep possession, Croatia has the highly agile, fluid and star filled midfield who can keep the possession on their own soo damn well.
And so, they have more strikers to commit forward and more people to mark Japanese strikers and defend behind.
It will be hard .. really hard
@@newbie4789 here now, no chance Japan win penalties. Croatia move to Quarters.
The team that uses a similar concept (high press) when they play against stronger teams is Newcastle United. Japan applies high press tactics in the second half but Newcastle United applies it at the start of the game. Newcastle will score first then defend the lead. Tottenham vs Newcastle (23 Oct) is a good example.
It was a tactical masterclass.. that is what I've seen as well. Realized it in some situations where their players looked like being arranged with a ruler on a chessboard
masterful
they basically Captain Tsubasa'd Germany and Spain
Drop back tactics are extra effective in the World Cup because the attacking tactics for most of the teams aren't thorough and scoring is usually very low, so it's much easier to get a lucky goal and then all out defend. A lot of teams also tend to panic and resort to lower skill attacks when losing, like pushing down the line and putting in hopeful crosses (seen a lot in Argentina vs Saudi Arabia and Morocco vs Portugal) or trying to drive through compact defenders where all they need is to put out one leg to stop the ball then boot it down the pitch (also seen in Argentina vs Saudi Arabia).
I totally agree
This change in tactics has been going on for a long time and Japan is a quite good team and not a real underdog.
You just described the most basic tactic for a weaker team that needs to win? You play a defensive style, but are forced to go on the offense when the opponents are up (which happened against both Germany and Spain). It worked out in their favor both times to grab the lead and then they immediately went back to their defensive game plan, because they know the opponents are generally the stronger team. Even bringing in fresh offensive substitutions late into the game is something that regularly happens. For example, the Netherlands brought in 2 fresh attackers near the end of the match against Argentina to bring the game back from 0-2 to 2-2, as well.
World Cup so far: Japan is easy. We are lucky!!
World Cup from now on: OMG. Japan is in our group.
Just wanted to point out that this group wasn't the most difficult one at the World Cup. Group G was rated the 6th most difficult of all time. Interestingly enough three of the same teams (Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia) were also in the 11th most difficult group of all time in 2018.
Great point. I think I saw it but forgot to mention it. Pretty funny Brazil keeping getting the toughest groups though
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Didn't mean to nitpick over what's a great post! Thanks so much for sharing it. PS Might explain to some extent why Brazil tends to run out of gas as the tournament goes on. PPS If you think Brazil is ticked, how do you think Serbia and Switzerland feel? Yikes! Almost like you have to begin the tournament with a big "L" around your neck!
great video. one thing that i would nominate as a detail to add for future analysis, how 5 subs has changed modern football. having those subs allows for more tactical flexibility, and the ability for managers to change the game.
overall, great video though. great points. cheers.
Thank you! I appreciate the feedback. Yes, that is something I definitely forgot to mention but is very important to the strategy
That's called offensive pressing, and requires a lot of stamina and 11 tactically intelligent players who are also decently skillfull relative to world class.
It"s nothing revolutionary and if the skill level is too different between teams, this is way too risky.
Japan us a good team on a level with the US, Croatia or Marocco.
They all can beat any team on any day.
its interesting to know that many people critised moriyasu heavily his team selection prior to the world cup for leaving the likes of kyogo and hatate for people like ueda. Since ueda was lackluster when he played, maybe kyogo could have been a better choice. But for sure we will never know for sure
They dont work on "preventing" as few goals as possible. They work on Allowing as few goals as possible.
THE BLUE LOCK IS REALLLLLLL
To play defense and then counter-attack at blitzkrieg speed once you have the ball in possession takes enormous skill. The weaker team usually cannot pull this off because they don't have forward that can score a goal with high successful rate. Basically, Argentina uses this tactic to score over France in the final. The 2nd goal they scored against France is a textbook example in counterattack. Just three passes traverse the whole length of the soccer field. They could do that because they have Messi. BTW, the 2022 final is once in a lifetime final because world cup final is usually boring to death when both teams played super cautiously. Morrocco also played counterattack nicely, but they lack the forward that can put the ball into the net. This was the case when they played against France. In the game where Japan played against Germany, the second goal Japan scored is world class. The angle to score is so narrow that it takes player like Neymar to score. You don't expect team like Japan to score such a goal. Yet they managed to do just that. The fact is, to beat a world class team, you need counterattack at blitzkrieg speed. It is much harder to defense when everything is on the move. Simple as that. The fact that France lost to Argentina is because they could not do that to Argentina and Argentina could do that to France. It takes two Mbappe to pull that off but unfortunately, France only got one Mbappe in the team.
I always wanted to see such indepth analysis of football team's tactics. Enjoyed this video. Hope to see more.
Japan actually played good but they always miss shots and feel like they are not confident
Brazil is in like 40% of these elo ratings that were showed lol
Why did you skip the analysis of how and why they lost their second game?
they had a tournament of 300 strikers to find out who was the best
when they can beat both Germany and Spain but failed to beat Croatia...
this proves how much luck matters in the group stages
I agree, Japan is lucky to ever progress pass the group stage and lost to a better team
They really needed to take shots. They kept trying to pass every time there was a chance at an open(ish) goal
it's a gme of chances and probability and sometimes not really. one lucky shot and it's in. nontheless japan and croatia both playd a well planned strategic game .
@@cronostrigger6401 dude football isn't a betting game where chances of probability works...the strong team will prevail that's all....!
The manager actually lacks tactics.
To think that croatia also win against brazil with a penalty shoot out, world cup 2022 is really full of surprise and japan definitely the best asian team in the tournament
At first it look like italia catenaccio and France 2018 (Deschamps was trained in Italia). It is the idea that to win the team must concede one less goal than it scores (and not score one more goal than it concedes).
The real revolution is the positional change during the match. Before it was rather versatile players who could bring a temporary surplus.
I don’t think it would be odd to see Japan on the seminal or even a final. What we can see so far in this tournament having the best players doesn’t mean having the best team. And the discipline of Japanese culture itself make their psychological state even better when the result is not going their favour. Be careful with Japan.
I don't think it would be crazy either. They've proven they can be a threat to the best teams. I think the hardest thing for Japan would be teams sitting back and forcing them to attack into them like Costa Rica did.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Yupp I agree, and when it comes into that, they REALLY need players like Mitoma who can take multiple players on the run and, with a very efficient finishing
Well, this did not age well
If that doesn’t work we can resort to kamikaze tactics. Banzai! 😢
@@kakabudi it’s ok! We just talk about the potential of Japan and what they showed in this tournament. The future is bright for Japan
I’ve watched only the first half of the game with Germany (stupid work) and I was extremely impressed by the almost perfect defense Japan showed. Never out of position, gained every ball back and even if Germany shot, no real threat was ever there. The first and only mistake the D did, turned into Germany scoring but man I was impressed.
I think we’re going to see great things from Japan in the future
Japan got slaughtered by Germany, Germany just made 2 terrible mistakes and Japan capitalised. Germany like doubled japan's expected goals and coulda easily been up 3-0 at halftime
@@TheDgenX finally someone who sees it! They were extremely lucky as well Germany hit the post a few times, but it was Germanys fault too not using a true striker like Füllkrug from the beginning.
Japan is my 2nd favourite international team .. after Jamaica
Gotta start the next season of Blue Lock.
I disagree. It was a tactic that relied on luck.
Their lack of creativity was exposed while playing against weaker offensive teams who defended more that Germany and Spain.
Japan doesn't reveal their true strategy until the 2nd half. In the first half, you learn about the opponent as much as you can and then strategize during half-time, but Spain and Germany weren't able to.
Japanese culture makes it uniquely suited to modern football. Sumo for pushing and shoving, and Kabuki theatre for elaborate gesticulation towards the referee.
So they changed from a Defensive 5-3-2 to a Pressing 3-4-3. Brave but hardly groundbreaking.
You forgot to mention that in order for Japan to have pulled this off at this level, they took the least amount of domestic league players as possible with most of their roster playing in Europe. Something USA needs to do in order to be more successful in high level tournaments like this. But nope, they prefer to promote their low level league where its best players aren't even American.
A lot of people compare their results to 2004 Greece, but I beg to differ. 2004 Greece resorted to their phyisical strength, height. Japan deosn't have the height, instead they have the pace and stamina. Look at Maeda's stats in the match against Spain. Japan's tactics is to give everything they have in the first 10-20 mins of the second have after they send in their key attacking players before the other side adapts. Japan overwhelmed both Spain and Germany until the 2nd goal. As Luis Enrique said, "If Japan wanted a 3rd( or 4th) goal they could've got it". Japan has confidence in their collective defense so they decided to park a bus instead of exhausting their players.
Exactly
Thank you for this amazing football insight. I have learned absolutely nothing new except for the mention of the new substitution changes.ie 5 sub rule.
I feel like Argentina's technicals and tacticals were the best this year, for the first half or for most of the game. Please do a video on that if you agree or disagree.
Nobody's correctly commenting on how spain ⚽ didn't need to win their match to advance. 🥅 Furthermore, spain losing to Japan, meant Germany was out. It was in Spain's best interest to actually lose to Japan. When you're guaranteed to advance, good teams rest their rosters.
This is modern football. Teams like Leeds and Brentford have been relying on a press to steal possessions to generate few but high quality opportunities on goal. Also Morocco did a similar tactic obviously with different personnel.
There was a thought going into the tournament that you could see real success for teams who could effectively play this style. Someone else in the comments mentioned that the 5 subs help overcome the fitness issues with this approach.
It should also be said that beat this style you cede possession to the pressing side. Force them to actually have offense develop. And in that game Japan lost. It only works against high possession sides.
I am a Japanese football fan. Japan's plan against Germany and Spain is "Mainly defense in 1st half, then massively attack in 2nd half " as you clearly explained in this video. But I guess this plan of manager Moriyasu was actually inspired by the recent same tactic of Gamba Osaka (in Japan's J1 league). Keisuke Honda and Ritsu Doan belonged to the academy of Gamba Osaka. Here is the explanation of my guess.
I've been a fan of Gamba for 30 years. Japan's previous manager in 2018 Russia World cup was "Akira Nishino", who had been also a manager of Gamba Osaka for 10 yrs (2002-2011). Nishino loves ATTACKING style and our Gamaba won many league titles. After this period, the next manager Hasegawa created opposite DIFFENSIVE strong style (2013-2017) and also won so many league championships.
And the recent young manager Tsuneyasu Miyamoto (2020-2021), who was the legendary captain in Japan national team, finally FUSE those DEFENSIVE Hasegawa-style and ATTACKING Nishino-style in GAMBA. That was "1st half, mainly defense, then mainly attack in 2nd attack". Originally, Miyamoto did this hybrid strategy to save players' power for the second half because there were so many veteran players in GAMBA who were not able to do the hard jobs for 90 minutes.
Both Nishino and Miyamto joined Japan football association in 2022, and they supported Japan's national team and Moriyasu for 2022 World cup in Qatar. My guess is that Moriyasu probably and directly had discussion on the measure against Germany and Spain with Nishino and Miyamoto. I guess Moriyasu then finally the hybrid tactic of Miyamoto's Gamaba and also arranged 2nd half style to SUPER-AGGRESIVE with five FWs because we have very fast and skillful wingers, Mitoma and Jyunya Ito. 5
That's just my opinion, but I believe Moriyasu came up with this super-offensive plan through the cooperation of Akira Nishino.
That's so cool, I had no idea about any of this. Really interesting to know where he got his ideas from, and very cool that they came inspired from a J league strategy. I will definitely have to look into it because it seems like this type of strategy could become more popular around the world after seeing japan use it
Yes, it's so cool even for us. Moriyasu used this unexpected strategy. During World cup preliminaries, Moriyasu was sometimes critisized by Japanese fans that he is too defensive and had no tactics for attacking. Everyone though Moriyasu has no talent for preparing good strategy, but in fact he hid it before the match against Germany.
Another important thing is 1st half can be thought as offensive. Taizen Maeda, center Forward, has the stamina and speed to chase around the goal keeper and the first defenders. Take (Kubo), Maeda, and Junya Ito also accomplish powerful Gegenpressing on the middle are in the first half. That's also the important key for the surprise attack of the start of 2nd half. Their aggressive pressing in 1st half promises 0-0 or at least 0-1 result in 1st half. And their pressing can also make physical fatigues even though we were defensive in 1st half.
I also think the high-speed counter attack of Angelos Postecoglou (manager of Celtics) also inspired this Japan's strategy. Yokohama Marinos with Postecoglou become the champion in J1 league in 2019. Yokohama Marinos is owned by City Group and Postecoglou newly used Guardiola's "Manchester City" defensive-and-attacking style for the first time in Japan. In 2019, Postecoglou used Maeda Taizen as center forward. He also adopted City's 5 lane style and fast counterattack transition (taught by City group trainers). Then Postecoglou transferrd Maeda to his Celtics and now Celtics also uses City-like five lane attacking. So I think the success of Maeda and Postecoglou also played another important role and inspired Moriyasu (and Nishino and Miyamoto).
@@masakihayashi8054 Postecoglou is quickly becoming a favorite manager of mine. That's really cool to hear about his impact in Japan and now his success with Celtic. It seems like the J league is ahead tactically of the other leagues
@@SpreadSheetSoccer I don't think our league is ahead but simply "unique".
European-sytle and J-league-sytle can be mixed by foreign managers such as Postecoglou. Those mixed sytles in J league just become unique and unseen ones for European and other nations.
If Americans started saying "nil" instead of "zero" they'd sound less like newbs and be taken more seriously in the world of football.
Watching this video as an amateur that hardly played the game, my observation from the current world cup is that Argentina starts off the game with these tactics, scores twice and then try to park the bus
Let's see if it is an effective tactic against Morocco
I like the thought process but it's a little different for a team like Argentina. Typically we see good teams like Argentina play their typical style of high pressing and possession throughout the game. Once good teams establish that 2 goal lead, they will begin to play a bit more defensive. They don't have to try and play for those two goals, so you won't see them playing as risky with high pressure. In games like the World cup where every game matters, the last 10 minutes of games where Argentina are leading become ultra defensive because the other team is desperately trying to score a goal. You're absolutely right that Japan did a similar thing to Argentina, but the special part about Japan's idea was they waited to play their "risky" high pressure style until the second half to catch their opponent off guard! I hope this makes sense
It's Fuurinkazan
Swift like the winds
Silent like the woods
Stout like the mountains
Fierce like the fires
What you described is what you do when you are goal down - you go from defensive to attacking and once you get a lead then you will park the bus.
Why teams think they can defend for 90 minutes is something I never understood. Played as defender and goalie
Unfortunate indeed, but this result is only from the first phase, Japan Blue Lock Project continues for the second phase. Let see how it will unravel in 2026 😉
I'm waiting for their striker who had a super ego.
lock off
If Japan can keep this up they will be able to learn more in the next 4 years, with enough matches they can get them way better to make a great team and if they're coach can help them with this tactic that they can change they're football skills from 2026 and on.
5 sub rule is massive for teams that have depth and trust in it, note England
Japan plays and prepares to Football tournaments similarly as to how Finland does in Ice Hockey
Literal Giant Killers, anyone remember that anime?
here here
I honestly think you never watched football before this world cup, what Japan did was textbook play against stronger opposition.
pretty much
I love your explanation and it's far more clear now. What about their defeat against Costa Rica? Japan dominated but failed to score one or two goals. Why?
It's very similar to how I was describing the typical gameplan of weaker teams vs better opponents. Costa Rica were considerably worse than each team in the group, and even against Japan they sat back and defended while waiting for Japan to make a mistake. Japan had 13 shots to Costa Rica's 4, but Costa Rica was able to score from one of their mistakes and defend the rest of the match. It's very ironic actually
Not to mention they had benched 5 players from the game against Germany
@@SpreadSheetSoccer I am a Japanese but personally think the analogy of "Japan beating Spain and Germany" to "Costa Rica beating Japan" is a lot of exaggeration. When I watched the Costa Rica game, I was bored to sleep in the first half. The performance of the players like Kamada was the worst; nothing remotely comparable to the spectacular passing football of Germany and Spain in their first half against Japan. Espeically, I thought Germany had many scoring chances. On the other hand, the quality of 13 shots by Japan you mentioned, I feel, were not at all high. Japan seriously lacked the creativity to make use of spaces. This, I think, is symbolized by the fact that they could not select Furuhashi Kyogo of Celtics (instead they selected Maeda Daizen). Moriyasu's team had little imagination of the attackers running into spaces and passers supplying high quality balls in spaces where there is nobody. I think Japan thus lost against Costa Rica due to the mixture of loss of stamina (both physical and mental), underestimation and serious lack of individual skill. In the Asian preliminary, they were already notorious of not being able to create chances against the lesser opponents with narrow zone defence (I understand that this is not the case with Spain).
I am very happy that Japan showed us what you explained in this video, but I sincerely hope that they will step up a lot further in using spaces in the next world cup, and hopefully Furuhashi will be a member.
@@decidrophob I think these performances are a sign of good things to come for Japan. Hopefullly they can make a similar run at the next world cup!
They underestimated costa rica and didn't aim to win and settle for a draw
Morocco ran nearly an identical style of play. The problem with sitting back without a comfortable lead, is similar to boxing in my mind. You can only slip, pivot, shell so many times before you get caught. The reason you see a more balanced approach so often is because it works more consistently. Morocco shocked a lot of people with their play as well, but just like Japan, they’ll be watching from home. I’m not knocking the creativity and talent, I am just saying that once “the cat is out of the bag”, most top tier teams are going to game plan for that approach. At that point it’s down to the day and individual quality (which BTW, is usually the one thing that matters above all else). Upsets do happen, but they’re obviously not that common or said team wouldn’t be an “underdog”. I love football, played in high school and college, even coached a bit afterwards and I am a stats nerd as well and the numbers do bare out what I am saying. If you apply the same chess metric as your analogy but to individual players, not the team as a whole and then tally up the numbers, the side with the greater total wins in the neighborhood of 85% of the time. There’s obviously a lot more math I’d need to do for an EXACT figure, but let’s account for a variance of +\- 7% and call it a day. None of the other metrics are as important as individual quality (barring poor team cohesion, ego issues, etc.).
I would agree in the sense that individual quality matters more in international games than in club games. International games are less complex tactically than club games simply due to teams having less time together. I'm actually going to have a video on this topic coming out soon, but I think at the club level while having better individual players does matter, club teams can developed better systems with less "good" players and still be a formidable team. PSG didn't win the league last year although they had the best squad.
I agree with your statement as well, international and club play are world’s apart in so many ways. I should have clarified that was what we were conversing about. Also, there were multiple variables that I didn’t take the time/space to account for and I am sure that didn’t help with clarity. I am by no means saying “the team with the most superstars wins”. I didn’t want to bore anyone reading with a wall of text, but a condensed form in a phrase would be “depth of quality”. When a side can bring on substitutes that are as good as your “superstars”, that’s a proper task overcoming it. I know that football is a game that can be simple or punishingly complex (on a physics level), there are innumerable intangibles that can swing a match and men aren’t machines, nobody bats 1,000 or scores every time. The more I reflect on my earlier statement, I realize how foolish it is to attempt a simple “do this & win” formula (if you want to call it that). That’s why it’s the beautiful game though, everyone sees it just a little differently and it means something to each of them in their own way. I apologize for the lengthy comment, love the channel! Fantastic chat, hope to do it again. Happy Holidays!
@@jacksonbauer5199 Happy Holidays! Anytime
the trick they used on Spain was that Spain didn't want to win, great tactical solution
Excellent analysis! Could you do one for Morocco!?
Coming soon!
Its very sad to see Japan lose on penalties. Bery harsh.
Smells like Angeball to me. Given his success in Japan with the same approach, doesn't surprise me that it has filtered in to the national team.
Exactly!
Need to work on the penalty kick. Croatia are penalty-taking masters, have won 3 shootouts over the last 2 tournaments
won today against Brazil! they're experts!😀😁
@@tootspogsforever5590 Yeah, thats their 4th shootout win in the last two cups. They are lethal, need to be beaten either in regulation or extra time.
Blue Lock is working babay!!
It's what's been happening for 10+ years. Like another said.. 5 substitutes rule allowed the weaker team to expend more energy to chase down the ball.
hello from Saga, Japan
Saudi adopted very similar tactics in their shock win vs Argentina. A shock hard-press at the start of the 2nd half
Pragmatic style of football is usually best for tournaments, its boring and unaattractive but it produces results, Germany and Spain choose to be dominating and stylish to their detriment. For Italy its a hit or miss, Brazil and France due to sheer talent, Argentina by magic, and England because its coming home 🤣
I don't disagree with what your saying. Perhaps this is the beauty of Japan's tactics because if you're Germany or Spain, and your opponent gives you free possession in the 1st half, you'll most certainly take it.
Germany had the highest expected goals out of any team in the group stage with 10. They easily couldve slotted 2 more in on japan if they finished better, they had 13 shots in the first half. Playing that pragmatic style might produce a few upsets out of luck, but it won't win you a tournament
Yes England is coming home 😂
They've got their tactics nailed down, now it's a matter of practicing penalty kicks
This discussion reminded me somewhat of the old 1960's Italian Catenaccio, which seems to share some characteristics with Japan's strategy, while clearly being quite different. One of the main ideas of Catenaccio was to run an unbalanced formation that was able to concentrate power. This strikes me as similar conceptually to the strategy of bringing in a lot of fresh legs all at once in the second half when everyone is starting to tire and going all-out for a short period of time, which is concentrating power in time rather than space. Aggressive pressing is extremely effective, but you can't do it for the whole game. Austria used a similar tactic against Italy in last year's Euro, where they alternated parking the bus with short periods of aggressive pressing. So low risk for most of the game.
Japan shut up everybody, only lost to Crotia for being "too green" playing with the big sharks but the next cup we will see the Blue Lock project materialized... 🔥
This is the power of homogeneity vs diversity. An homogenous team that actually loves their country and national identity is able to do wonders. I say that as a brazilian. The lack of passion in our current team is reflective of our current cultural state.
Pep and klopp and those before them may have an issue with Japan investing pressing 😂😂
if you watch some of Anime soccer anime.... you cant help but believe Japan will turn up in some way, based on the creativity and thought given to the show and game and realism
subbed!!
Thank you!
You almost describe this as Grunge football. quiet-LOUD-quiet.
Now make one on Morocco
Just did :)
Lets face the hard truth: Japan was really bad in the first half against germany, 9 out of 10 times, they are behind with 2 or more goals at halftime. Kudos to them for adapting in the second half, but this was only possible because they got lucky in the first half and because the german coach made some mindboggling mistakes in response to the changes Japan made
Japan made good adjustments in the second half of games against Spain and germany and took for granted the game against costa Rica. against Croatia i think they played passively in the second half and took bad penalty kicks. they are a team on the rise and will be ranked higher next year😀
Very interesting observations. Croatia - please make notes.
I think expected ELO of the second-place qualifier is a better measure than average ELO of the difficulty of a group. Measuring it that way, there are probably significantly fewer than 13 historical groups harder than this group. For example, when measuring in this way (and using second-highest rated participant as an approximation for expected ELO of second-place qualifier, which should be a good approximation since the opportunity to play many qualifying games increases the likelihood of strong teams qualifying consistently), this group becomes significantly harder (with a second-highest rating of 1963) than the other group in 2022 higher on the list at number 6 (2022 Group G, with a second-highest rating of 1902).
Love this idea. Do you have a way to share your calculations?
@@SpreadSheetSoccer Sure, the justification is that because there are two qualifiers, the expected rating of the lower qualifier is a better approximation of the difficulty of a group because that's the team you have to beat to qualify. For example, it doesn't matter that much if one team in the group is the best team in the world as long as the other three teams are all fairly weak, that would still be an easy group overall because the bar to qualification is low because you don't have to outperform the best team in the world. Measuring it this way (and using the second-highest approximation, which approaches exactness as the number of qualifying games increases), the groups in the article can be reranked as follows (I did not include groups outside of the article, which may overtake these groups at the top when measuring this way):
1970 Group 3: 2036 (+0)
1982 Group 6: 2001 (+10)
2014 Group B: 1986 (-1)
2018 Group B: 1969 (+11)
2022 Group E: 1963 (+9)
1978 Group 3: 1961 (-3)
1978 Group 4: 1946 (+2)
1974 Group 2: 1944 (-4)
2014 Group G: 1942 (-2)
1978 Group 1: 1926 (-5)
2002 Group F: 1925 (-3)
2022 Group G: 1902 (-6)
1986 Group E: 1892 (+0)
2018 Group E: 1889 (-3)
1994 Group E: 1863 (-5)
@@joeljude9180 This is very interesting, I'm so glad you shared it. I will have to keep this in mind for future videos because I do think Elo ratings are vastly underrated in the football world.
@@SpreadSheetSoccer You're welcome :)
By the way the numbers in parentheses are placement changes, not ELO changes, just realized that could be confusing.
They also were lucky that Germany who was the better team made horrible individual mistakes and did not defend well
Awesome video
Thank you! New vid coming soon just like it :)
The Asian game and players are evolving. This was happening over the past few decades. Their leagues have improved their players are getting bigger contracts. Everyone was looking at the Afican players and teams but although they have flair strength and creativity. The Asians have excellent technique they have a perfect command of the basics they are supremely conditioned very disciplined very tactical very good individual football IQ and they play the game at breakneck speed.
So pretty much counter attack while at 0-0 then attack when you are losing, and finally defend while you are ahead. Very groundbreaking! Lol