My league did our rookie draft about a week ago.. took marvin with the 1.01.. traded from 1.05 to 1.07 to get maye... then traded back into 1.09 to get bowers.. Picked up vidal.. erick all and luke McCaffery with my other 3rd round picks
Took maye and worthy back to back at 6 and 7 in my superflex draft. Kinda early for worthy but had Andrew’s and didn’t need bowers. Hopefully it pays off!! Have Kyler and AR
Looking for a little advice. I am a dumpster fire rebuild team with four firsts in 2024 and another four in 2025 along with two seconds. I am curious if you would sell the 2024 2.10 and purchase Rashee Rice? I do not care at all about competing this season. Clear front runner for last place. Basically, is Rice done or is the 2.10 a potential huge stash? Obviously, we don't know what Worthy and Hollywood do in KC. Risk for sure.
Thank you. I was leaning that way too. Been sitting on Rice talks for awhile and then he punched someone. Trade talks turned from the 2.03 to the 2.10 pretty quickly
Hollywood won’t get resigned so Rice is a stash fs. Just take the best value at each spot in the draft. QB focus with WR secondary. No RB’s they’re too risky. If you can get two top 10-15 starting QB’s at discounted prices like Maye or McCarthy, you’re going to add a ton of value to your team very quickly
@@brendonbuffaloe8830 Those are two QBs absolutely on my radar. We auction draft so there is no way to lock in ahead of time what I leave with. Plan, prepare, stay level headed, pivot based on values, etc. I have 25% of the 12 team budget. Thanks for the advice!
Canales - 2022 geno smith and 2023 baker mayfield. Recent history suggests panthers are undervalued right now. But it might be a one year thing - this time because if Canales fixes 3 QBs in a row, he's becoming a headcoach somewhere. Legette - I hope people forget he's a converted QB. Makes me think if he gets 600 yards year one, I'm buying year 2 if his cost is a 3rd or 4th.
What's the point, if lamb is your guy I guess you can throw something like a late 2nd in, or maybe if you have the stack. Either way I don't think it's worth paying much extra, and no one will prolly sell without being enticed
I didn't do this last year unfortunately, if I had to backdate it thinking now he likely would've fallen in the safe/volatile area because of Kupp being there and Stafford being somewhat of an injury question mark but would've loved the McVay landing spot/scheme - If you told me last year Puka hit big though, I wouldn't of believed you, I probably would've thought a "hit" for him was the next Tyler Boyd or something
I have a trade offer in dynasty superflex 1pt Te premium where I would receive the 1.07 and Puka for the 1.05 a mid/late 2025 first and 2.11 and 2.12 should I take it?
That's an interesting deal, I think it's fair it would depend if you need QB or not because at 1.05 you're likely sacrificing QB equity unless you're massive on JJ McCarthy - walking away with Odunze and Nacua would feel pretty damn good tho ngl
Shouldn’t the Bears have at least a medium “Bad Offense Risk” rating….? Especially from Rome’s perspective. We’ve seen no proof that Everflus is a competent head coach and we just saw Waldron tank JSNs rookie career due to lack of 3 WR sets and poor usage.
@@FantasyStockExchange yea I realize I was mixing arguments a bit. I guess a better way of phrasing my sentiment is that I think it’s a bit bold to say Chicago has a low risk of being a bad offense. I see why you feel that way and I’m sure I’m in the minority on this argument to be fair. I just feel it’s a higher than low risk that they’re a bad offense. Hopefully they take off though! Chicago needs it
I like TLaw a lot, I’m just concerned with his ability to post high-end fantasy production. He can be a franchise QB for the next decade but only ever post 18 PPG seasons. That doesn’t feel super valuable compared to a guy who might not be as good of a QB in real life but can consistently break 20 PPG like Kyler.
Love the video. Gotta disagree with some of the QB risk levels though. Trevor Lawrence has proven pretty thoroughly that he’s mid. And Caleb Williams hasn’t proven anything. I’d be curious to know how you assess QB risk
No QB at 24 years old with half a year injured and a full year of urban Meyer is proven, Lawrence is a franchise QB imo Caleb is an elite QB prospect with excellent weapons and protection, it’s not a guarantee that he hits but imo it’s pretty close to it
Tlaw with brian thomas is when I think we can see who he really is. The upside is there and we saw it. For fantasy it's there too with the deceptive rushing ability.
@@FantasyStockExchange I mean he’s only missed one game in his career. Everybody plays through injury, it’s the NFL. You can be a franchise QB and be mid. QBs playing better than Lawrence lately: Mahomes, Allen, Cousins, Jackson, Burrow, Dak, Goff, Herbert, Love, Stroud, Tua, Hurts, Purdy. And i would argue Stafford, Mayfield and Geno Smith as well. That’s 16. AND there’s 6 rookies coming. I’d bet my house that one of them out performs him and pushes him further down the list. It’s not Trevor’s fault that a crappy franchise derailed his career, but it is a fact that he’s mid.
Disagree on the Ladd take. I feel that he's getting pumped up a lot about what he's done in a very small sample and has a history of injuries. I think he will be good but I dont feel like he is as much of a slam dunk as people make him out to be
You list Daniels as high risk injury, he has never missed time in college from an injury. Yet you have Penix as medium injury risk but he has missed lots of time due to injury. Weird.
Definitely a fair point, it's more due to their playstyle, you could make the argument both should be medium/high risk depending on how you value it but for me I see Daniels as a run first QB especially early in his career because he has many deficiencies as a passer and plays in a middling offense with a bad line and play caller
All this stuff is pointless when asking what is the safest picks. The safest stratagy has always been printing out a sheet of the NFL draft results and drafting down the list. Will you have some misses? Yes for sure as the NFL itself has missed but its the most proven stratagy over the long term. No expert has a higher hit rate over the NFL draft results. No one. Does this sell for content creators? No as its boring but its the truth.
The correlation of my WR prospect model to years 1-4 fantasy PPG since 2016 is 39%, the NFL Draft capital is 33% during that stretch so yes in fact it would be unwise to print the sheet of the NFL draft results
NEW LISTENER DYNASTY LEAGUE BEGINNING IN TWO WEEKS:
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Mitchell’s gonna be a stud. Even if Richardson injured Flacco will get him ball in Steichen Offense. He’s young and can do it all and will get better.
My league did our rookie draft about a week ago.. took marvin with the 1.01.. traded from 1.05 to 1.07 to get maye... then traded back into 1.09 to get bowers..
Picked up vidal.. erick all and luke McCaffery with my other 3rd round picks
Way to maneuver the draft board!
12T 1QB S9
Gave: Chase Brown, 3.09
Got: 2.05 because Ladd was falling
W
Big W
W and a half
Took maye and worthy back to back at 6 and 7 in my superflex draft. Kinda early for worthy but had Andrew’s and didn’t need bowers. Hopefully it pays off!! Have Kyler and AR
If JJ and Bowers were both still there, I may have tried to slide down a few picks but solid nonetheless
I took Daniels and worthy at 6 & 7. We're converting to super flex in 2025 so most of our draft was still treating it as one qb.
Looking for a little advice. I am a dumpster fire rebuild team with four firsts in 2024 and another four in 2025 along with two seconds. I am curious if you would sell the 2024 2.10 and purchase Rashee Rice? I do not care at all about competing this season. Clear front runner for last place. Basically, is Rice done or is the 2.10 a potential huge stash? Obviously, we don't know what Worthy and Hollywood do in KC. Risk for sure.
With your picks banked i’d take the shot at him at that cost tbh
Thank you. I was leaning that way too. Been sitting on Rice talks for awhile and then he punched someone. Trade talks turned from the 2.03 to the 2.10 pretty quickly
Hollywood won’t get resigned so Rice is a stash fs. Just take the best value at each spot in the draft. QB focus with WR secondary. No RB’s they’re too risky.
If you can get two top 10-15 starting QB’s at discounted prices like Maye or McCarthy, you’re going to add a ton of value to your team very quickly
@@brendonbuffaloe8830 Those are two QBs absolutely on my radar. We auction draft so there is no way to lock in ahead of time what I leave with. Plan, prepare, stay level headed, pivot based on values, etc. I have 25% of the 12 team budget. Thanks for the advice!
@@ColeHelget you do auction draft for rookies? How does that work? Does a team that would have the 101 get a higher budget than the team with the 112?
Canales - 2022 geno smith and 2023 baker mayfield. Recent history suggests panthers are undervalued right now. But it might be a one year thing - this time because if Canales fixes 3 QBs in a row, he's becoming a headcoach somewhere.
Legette - I hope people forget he's a converted QB. Makes me think if he gets 600 yards year one, I'm buying year 2 if his cost is a 3rd or 4th.
Definitely could be a slower developing player forsure
Canales is the head coach
@@aaronclare2682 haha. I thought he was the OC for some reason. Fair enough
1st! Same spot im going to finish in my dynasty league this year!!!
That’s the goal!
1 QB half PPR. Just traded LaPorta for 1.12 2024, 1st 2025, 2nd 2026 and Isaiah Likely. Thoughts on Trade ? No TEP
Pretty good haul, depends on your team tbh, I think it's a good return but in a 1QB that would be a highly coveted asset
I was in a rebuild this year and was able to snag MHJ Nabers odunze bowers Brian Thomas penix AD Mitchell
Nigga had the first 4 picks
Great video!!
Glad you enjoyed it
Dyna/12TM/SF/TierPPR/ST10
Just curious how much more(if any) would you add on top of Marv to get Lamb?
What's the point, if lamb is your guy I guess you can throw something like a late 2nd in, or maybe if you have the stack. Either way I don't think it's worth paying much extra, and no one will prolly sell without being enticed
@@justinleandoer6821 I think he would toss in Michael Penix on top of Marv
@@cxkelley oh your getting marv??
@@justinleandoer6821 yes
@@cxkelley in that case id always take the package. your only risk is marvin busting but i like your odds.
In a league with 2 TE spots should I draft Brock Bowers over Rome Odunze?
Yes
Yeh in that format I probably would
No question
Where did Puca fall last year in your risk model?
I didn't do this last year unfortunately, if I had to backdate it thinking now he likely would've fallen in the safe/volatile area because of Kupp being there and Stafford being somewhat of an injury question mark but would've loved the McVay landing spot/scheme - If you told me last year Puka hit big though, I wouldn't of believed you, I probably would've thought a "hit" for him was the next Tyler Boyd or something
I have a trade offer in dynasty superflex 1pt Te premium where I would receive the 1.07 and Puka for the 1.05 a mid/late 2025 first and 2.11 and 2.12 should I take it?
That's an interesting deal, I think it's fair it would depend if you need QB or not because at 1.05 you're likely sacrificing QB equity unless you're massive on JJ McCarthy - walking away with Odunze and Nacua would feel pretty damn good tho ngl
@@FantasyStockExchange thank you! I do need Qb I’m just not sure if I trust JJ McCarthy, but there is potential maye could be there who I like a lot
Shouldn’t the Bears have at least a medium “Bad Offense Risk” rating….? Especially from Rome’s perspective. We’ve seen no proof that Everflus is a competent head coach and we just saw Waldron tank JSNs rookie career due to lack of 3 WR sets and poor usage.
It’s more a testament to Caleb’s ability + the weapons they have, but yea I accounted for Waldron with the medium risk rating for coaching
@@FantasyStockExchange yea I realize I was mixing arguments a bit. I guess a better way of phrasing my sentiment is that I think it’s a bit bold to say Chicago has a low risk of being a bad offense. I see why you feel that way and I’m sure I’m in the minority on this argument to be fair. I just feel it’s a higher than low risk that they’re a bad offense. Hopefully they take off though! Chicago needs it
Good stuff
Appreciate it
Ladd over Worthy and BTJ?
I have worthy ranked over Ladd, Ladd is just the less risky of the two, and BTJ I have 3rd of that group
Pass on Daniels for Rome?
From a talent standpoint, I prefer Rome but the positional value gives Daniels the edge for me in Rookie drafts, my advice would be try and trade down
I like TLaw a lot, I’m just concerned with his ability to post high-end fantasy production. He can be a franchise QB for the next decade but only ever post 18 PPG seasons. That doesn’t feel super valuable compared to a guy who might not be as good of a QB in real life but can consistently break 20 PPG like Kyler.
For BTJs sake it won’t really matter but I believe he’s closer to Herbert than people think
Love the video. Gotta disagree with some of the QB risk levels though. Trevor Lawrence has proven pretty thoroughly that he’s mid. And Caleb Williams hasn’t proven anything. I’d be curious to know how you assess QB risk
No QB at 24 years old with half a year injured and a full year of urban Meyer is proven, Lawrence is a franchise QB imo
Caleb is an elite QB prospect with excellent weapons and protection, it’s not a guarantee that he hits but imo it’s pretty close to it
I’m a Titans fan and even I recognize that is a terrible TLaw take.
Tlaw with brian thomas is when I think we can see who he really is. The upside is there and we saw it. For fantasy it's there too with the deceptive rushing ability.
@@FantasyStockExchange I mean he’s only missed one game in his career. Everybody plays through injury, it’s the NFL. You can be a franchise QB and be mid. QBs playing better than Lawrence lately: Mahomes, Allen, Cousins, Jackson, Burrow, Dak, Goff, Herbert, Love, Stroud, Tua, Hurts, Purdy.
And i would argue Stafford, Mayfield and Geno Smith as well.
That’s 16. AND there’s 6 rookies coming. I’d bet my house that one of them out performs him and pushes him further down the list. It’s not Trevor’s fault that a crappy franchise derailed his career, but it is a fact that he’s mid.
Odunze > Nabers
Disagree but they’re both absolute studs
Just got Nabers 1.06
Steal of the draft then. Assuming your league mates ahead of you all needed QB
Buffoon Leaguemates
@@djplatinum81 yeah and Rome and JJ went off the board before him
@@calebyost9228 craziness lol
Just got Maye and worthy in my 12 team SF… picks 1.08 and 1.10. Insane
Nice work!
pretty standard actually! Most people are letting Maye slide
Maye went 1.08 in mine and I got Worthy 2.01 😊
Nothing spectacular there. It's where both of them should have gone.
@@daves9355 you’re a clown😂 Maye should’ve gone 1.03 or at the LATEST 1.05… worthy I got at a normal cost but imo should be valued higher
Where's Jonathon Brooks?
He’s in the chart on flock but he wasn’t one of the 3 riskiest or 3 safest players in round 2
Disagree on the Ladd take. I feel that he's getting pumped up a lot about what he's done in a very small sample and has a history of injuries. I think he will be good but I dont feel like he is as much of a slam dunk as people make him out to be
Agreed. However fantasy wise especially in full PPR leagues he could get a lot of targets and be the main guy in that chargers offense
It’s more that he’s an easy projection to be a WR2 or better in fantasy, not saying he’ll end up a top 5 NFL WR or anything
Oh ok so the guys who go high but aren't the "clear #1s" are hazards
Not necessarily hazards, it's just a risk to their profile
You list Daniels as high risk injury, he has never missed time in college from an injury. Yet you have Penix as medium injury risk but he has missed lots of time due to injury. Weird.
Definitely a fair point, it's more due to their playstyle, you could make the argument both should be medium/high risk depending on how you value it but for me I see Daniels as a run first QB especially early in his career because he has many deficiencies as a passer and plays in a middling offense with a bad line and play caller
JD scrambling in college vs nfl gonna be a huge difference. Man doesn’t weigh much either
All this stuff is pointless when asking what is the safest picks. The safest stratagy has always been printing out a sheet of the NFL draft results and drafting down the list. Will you have some misses? Yes for sure as the NFL itself has missed but its the most proven stratagy over the long term.
No expert has a higher hit rate over the NFL draft results. No one.
Does this sell for content creators? No as its boring but its the truth.
The correlation of my WR prospect model to years 1-4 fantasy PPG since 2016 is 39%, the NFL Draft capital is 33% during that stretch so yes in fact it would be unwise to print the sheet of the NFL draft results