Kentucky Derby 2024 Update April 8 Top Contenders
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- Опубліковано 7 кві 2024
- #kentuckyderby2024
Kentucky Derby Contender Update 2024. Sierra Leone gets a 98 Beyer in the Blue Grass. Resilience a 90 Beyer in the Wood Memorial and Stronghold an 89 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby. Leslie's Rose headlines the Kentucky Oaks field.
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Please watch: "Kentucky Derby 2024 News Update Sierra Leone"
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Just A Touch's Time Form number of 121 is very intriguing!! Especially since he'll be up near the pace or pressing. I'll have to use him!!
Great update, great information!!
People have opinions horses have the facts. Well the facts are that there are 2 that stand above the rest in Fierceness and Sierra Leone. But my opinion is that we'll have another longshot win because i have a feeling it's gonna be crazy fast clips with over zealous Colts like Resilience, TO Password, No More Time, Track Phantom and like any horse thats just happy to be there. These longshot types that get in on the final preps with a 2nd place finish. Even a horse like Hades if he wins the Lexington perhaps he gets in and wants to go straight to the lead. So there will be pace and i think itll be wicked . You think that sets up nicely for a Sierra Leone but we all thought the same thing for horses like Tapit Trice, Mo Donegal, Zandon and it didn't work out that way. The one TRUE TRUE FACT is the Derby is never a sure thing.
Sierra Leone is going to need traffic help to win this race...Obviously will need to go wide and win down the stretch....it's a race that will have a weird mix of speed horses.
Track Phantom will ensure a fast pace
I like Fiercness to win the Derby, I like Endlessly 2nd
Fiercness is still my derby pick, been saying that since the romp out the box at Saratoga. I like Endlessly 2nd. 🤷
*2024* *Kentucky* *Derby*
So I’m checking Bovada and Sierra Leone is favored over Fierceness which I find crazy considering Fierceness earned a 110 Beyer and Sierra Leone only got a 98 in his final prep.
Fierceness got a Beyer higher than anything American Pharoah and Justify ever got in their Derby preps. However, I’m with the general public. While it can be difficult relying on a closer like Sierra Leone in a race full of traffic, he might be one of the better ones we’ve had since Street Sense as he doesn’t mind the dirt kickback. Even if he got the No. 1 hole, he may still win it due to his running style.
Doesn’t the name Sierra Leone sound like a Derby winner over Fierceness? And who knows if Fierceness freaked too soon the way Bellamy Road earned a 120 Beyer in the 2005 Wood Memorial only to run 7th in the Derby. A 50-1 Giacomo, 71-1 Closing Argument, 29-1 Don’t Get Mad, 46-1 Buzzard’s Bay, and 21-1 Wilko all passed Bellamy Road that day.
Then again, Fierceness might be Todd Pletcher’s best Derby hopeful since Always Dreaming in 2017 who also won the Florida Derby only to wire the Kentucky Derby field. Always Dreaming would never win another race ever again similar to Super Saver. They constantly ran off the board. Since 2017, Pletcher’s best Derby finish was with Audible finishing 3rd in 2018.
The reason why I’m putting Sierra Leone over Fierceness even though the numbers tells me that Fierceness is the fastest among this crop with Nysos behind him is because I think we’re going back to the 90s and 00s when closers usually won it after a fast early pace. There was a trend by 2012 when we had California speedsters usually winning it. I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Justify, Authentic, Medina Spirit. But during the last two years, it’s been horses like Rich Strike and Mage coming from well off the pace.
Listen, I was all over Messier and Taiba in 2022 only to watch them both run up the track after a breakneck early pace not seen since 2005. Then I went for Verifying and Reincarnate last year thinking the pace would be slow only to watch them run up the track. The pace went the opposite only to set up Mage. I was high on Angel of Empire last year and he ended up finishing 3rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s. I had Disarm too and he went 4th.
This might be the year I’m betting against horses with some early speed since we’ve been getting 46 for a first half-mile only to watch them tire in the stretch and Fierceness should have plenty of company early on. This is not Gulfstream which at times can have a speed bias. Fierceness has also showed some inconsistency. If he breaks slowly, he won’t hit the board. Fierceness’ sire (City of Light) and grandsire (Quality Road) were quality runners but couldn’t win over 9F.
I usually wait when Bovada can let me parlay the Derby winner with the NBA conference champions. That usually happens between the post position draw and the morning of Derby Day. So even if I get the Derby winner right, I still may not win if the NBA conference champions are wrong. Stupid Boston Celtics ruined my bets last year when they lost to the 8th seed Miami Heat.
I gambled between 7 to 10 different Derby horses from 2021-2023 and still lost them. Had Mandaloun but didn’t have Medina Spirit. Mandaloun backers never got paid after Medina’s DQ. Then got 2nd and 3rd in 2022 and 3rd and 4th in 2023. I haven’t hit a Derby since Justify. I will limit it to 10 and watch me still lose like I did in 2022 when I failed to include Rich Strike. Epicenter and Zandon just couldn’t get there for me.
I’ve sorta given up my hopes from ever cashing from the Kentucky Derby again since Maximum Security got disqualified in 2019. That year is when my Derby curse began. The Kentucky Derby is becoming a sucker’s bet for suckers like me. But here goes “nothing”….
My Derby Top 10
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Forever Young 🇯🇵
4. Catching Freedom
5. Just A Touch
6. Stronghold
7. Endlessly
8. Resilience
9. Epic Ride
10. Dornach
I’ll probably make a cutoff after Endlessly. The Jeff Ruby Steaks in Turfway Park on synthetic has been a key prep the last two years (Rich Strike, Two Phil’s) which is why I’ll have Endlessly in my bets. Dornach disappointed in the Blue Grass and the Wood Memorial was a weak field. Wasn’t a fan of the closing time for the Santa Anita Derby but I’m including Stronghold being a big Ghostzapper fan.
I’m usually the type who ignores the Japanese horses and the UAE Derby winner. The latter is still 0-19 at winning the roses. But I like that name, Forever Young, who remains undefeated while racing on different tracks. For 129 years, we had no Derby winner who didn’t race at 2YO. Now we have Justify and Mage. Losing trends are bound to end.
Derby/NBA Parlays
Sierra Leone wins Derby
Celtics wins ECF
Nuggets wins WCF
Chalky but this can be at least 10 -1 to 15-1 if it’s parlayed. I may change my mind and include Resilience and Epic Ride the closer we get to the Derby and I see some sharp works by both although Epic Ride (by Blame who loved Churchill) may not make the cut.
We do have some great names for a Derby winner this year….
Hades
Sierra Leone
Forever Young
Endlessly
Resilience
Fierceness
Stronghold
Catching Freedom
I thought Two Phil’s should’ve won the Derby last year since he was close to the fast early pace but I guess the racing gods preferred the name Mage more. This year’s names sounds a lot better than My Boy Jack and Two Phil’s or even Lil E. Tee who actually won the Derby in 1992 with a dumb name like that.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby falls on Star Wars Day. What if it’s a name like Forever Young? In the words of Squints: 4-ev-er. May the Fourth be with you! And Star Wars is based from Japanese samurai movies. Or maybe Resilience or Catching Freedom to represent the Rebel Alliance? Or it could be just the No. 4 horse. Maybe a 5-4 exacta since the No. 5 post is the most winningest Derby post?
I may need to wear my Andor hat on Derby Day over my Rock Hard Ten hat. Playing Rod Stewart’s “Forever Young” right before the race. Japan might finally breakthrough during the Chinese year of the dragon 🐉….
I like Resilience to hit the exacta or trifecta. Would be nice if he is accompanied by Catching Freedom. I like their just-off-the-pace tendency.
Catching Freedom came from last in the Louisiana Derby.
For years I have been respectfully addressing you as Mr.Derbyologist. This was a fantastic podcast but, can we call you by your first name, Thanks pal. Currently leaning towards Just a Touch, the lightly raced Justify colt.
Post positions....and jockeys...will be a major factor
Catching Freedom has more tactical speed than Sierra Leone and just as much punch down the lane. SL probably to much traffic to overcome for me to play. First bump with another horse and Fierceness is done. Catching Freedom for me.
*2024* *Kentucky* *Derby*
So I’m checking Bovada and Sierra Leone is favored over Fierceness which I find crazy considering Fierceness earned a 110 Beyer and Sierra Leone only got a 98 in his final prep.
Fierceness got a Beyer higher than anything American Pharoah and Justify ever got in their Derby preps. However, I’m with the general public. While it can be difficult relying on a closer like Sierra Leone in a race full of traffic, he might be one of the better ones we’ve had since Street Sense as he doesn’t mind the dirt kickback. Even if he got the No. 1 hole, he may still win it due to his running style.
Doesn’t the name Sierra Leone sound like a Derby winner over Fierceness? And who knows if Fierceness freaked too soon the way Bellamy Road earned a 120 Beyer in the 2005 Wood Memorial only to run 7th in the Derby. A 50-1 Giacomo, 71-1 Closing Argument, 29-1 Don’t Get Mad, 46-1 Buzzard’s Bay, and 21-1 Wilko all passed Bellamy Road that day.
Then again, Fierceness might be Todd Pletcher’s best Derby hopeful since Always Dreaming in 2017 who also won the Florida Derby only to wire the Kentucky Derby field. Always Dreaming would never win another race ever again similar to Super Saver. They constantly ran off the board. Since 2017, Pletcher’s best Derby finish was with Audible finishing 3rd in 2018.
The reason why I’m putting Sierra Leone over Fierceness even though the numbers tells me that Fierceness is the fastest among this crop with Nysos behind him is because I think we’re going back to the 90s and 00s when closers usually won it after a fast early pace. There was a trend by 2012 when we had California speedsters usually winning it. I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Justify, Authentic, Medina Spirit. But during the last two years, it’s been horses like Rich Strike and Mage coming from well off the pace.
Listen, I was all over Messier and Taiba in 2022 only to watch them both run up the track after a breakneck early pace not seen since 2005. Then I went for Verifying and Reincarnate last year thinking the pace would be slow only to watch them run up the track. The pace went the opposite only to set up Mage. I was high on Angel of Empire last year and he ended up finishing 3rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s. I had Disarm too and he went 4th.
This might be the year I’m betting against horses with some early speed since we’ve been getting 46 for a first half-mile only to watch them tire in the stretch and Fierceness should have plenty of company early on. This is not Gulfstream which at times can have a speed bias. Fierceness has also showed some inconsistency. If he breaks slowly, he won’t hit the board. Fierceness’ sire (City of Light) and grandsire (Quality Road) were quality runners but couldn’t win over 9F.
I usually wait when Bovada can let me parlay the Derby winner with the NBA conference champions. That usually happens between the post position draw and the morning of Derby Day. So even if I get the Derby winner right, I still may not win if the NBA conference champions are wrong. Stupid Boston Celtics ruined my bets last year when they lost to the 8th seed Miami Heat.
I gambled between 7 to 10 different Derby horses from 2021-2023 and still lost them. Had Mandaloun but didn’t have Medina Spirit. Mandaloun backers never got paid after Medina’s DQ. Then got 2nd and 3rd in 2022 and 3rd and 4th in 2023. I haven’t hit a Derby since Justify. I will limit it to 10 and watch me still lose like I did in 2022 when I failed to include Rich Strike. Epicenter and Zandon just couldn’t get there for me.
I’ve sorta given up my hopes from ever cashing from the Kentucky Derby again since Maximum Security got disqualified in 2019. That year is when my Derby curse began. The Kentucky Derby is becoming a sucker’s bet for suckers like me. But here goes “nothing”….
My Derby Top 10
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Forever Young 🇯🇵
4. Catching Freedom
5. Just A Touch
6. Stronghold
7. Endlessly
8. Resilience
9. Epic Ride
10. Dornach
I’ll probably make a cutoff after Endlessly. The Jeff Ruby Steaks in Turfway Park on synthetic has been a key prep the last two years (Rich Strike, Two Phil’s) which is why I’ll have Endlessly in my bets. Dornach disappointed in the Blue Grass and the Wood Memorial was a weak field. Wasn’t a fan of the closing time for the Santa Anita Derby but I’m including Stronghold being a big Ghostzapper fan.
I’m usually the type who ignores the Japanese horses and the UAE Derby winner. The latter is still 0-19 at winning the roses. But I like that name, Forever Young, who remains undefeated while racing on different tracks. For 129 years, we had no Derby winner who didn’t race at 2YO. Now we have Justify and Mage. Losing trends are bound to end.
Derby/NBA Parlays
Sierra Leone wins Derby
Celtics wins ECF
Nuggets wins WCF
Chalky but this can be at least 10 -1 to 15-1 if it’s parlayed. I may change my mind and include Resilience and Epic Ride the closer we get to the Derby and I see some sharp works by both although Epic Ride (by Blame who loved Churchill) may not make the cut.
We do have some great names for a Derby winner this year….
Hades
Sierra Leone
Forever Young
Endlessly
Resilience
Fierceness
Stronghold
Catching Freedom
I thought Two Phil’s should’ve won the Derby last year since he was close to the fast early pace but I guess the racing gods preferred the name Mage more. This year’s names sounds a lot better than My Boy Jack and Two Phil’s or even Lil E. Tee who actually won the Derby in 1992 with a dumb name like that.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby falls on Star Wars Day. What if it’s a name like Forever Young? In the words of Squints: 4-ev-er. May the Fourth be with you! And Star Wars is based from Japanese samurai movies. Or maybe Resilience or Catching Freedom to represent the Rebel Alliance? Or it could be just the No. 4 horse. Maybe a 5-4 exacta since the No. 5 post is the most winningest Derby post?
I may need to wear my Andor hat on Derby Day over my Rock Hard Ten hat. Playing Rod Stewart’s “Forever Young” right before the race. Japan might finally breakthrough during the Chinese year of the dragon 🐉….
Good Post, I like the idea of parlaying the odds with the NBA, get a little odds boost. The One Word Names, always stick out, but Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom are both good. Still a few weeks to decide.
The 15-20 is not for certain hades and Encino if they win the Lexington stakes there in the derby!
Fierceness is tough, when he brings his A game, but definitely not a lock.
He might have peaked I expect him to bounce
John Velazquez is the jockey for Fierceness
yea i know why he was saying i.ortiz when johnny v. rode him last 3 times
was scratching my head. wait a minute
went right to the front, was pulling away at the finish, you think a closer can catch him
Resilience is My pick for the derby
The 88 Beyer for Stronghold is just wrong. I’m glad for it though, I’ll get better odds on him!
He ran nose to nose with Sierra Leone last season, but can they both run with Fierceness? I am wondering if the pace will help Catching Freedom, who got within 1 1\2 lengths of Sierra Leone in one race. So many good horses, you may just be right!
Wait what? His Beyer is wrong? So you know Beyer figures better than Andy Beyer? How did you get so good at putting Beyer's to races? And I'd love your opinion on what Fierceness's actual Beyer figure was. Andy Beyer had it at 110. What is the corrected figure by Jeff?
good luck to all if you use beyer speed figures or any speed # to pick the winner .
@@nolinrogers I didn't say anything about using it to pick the winner. Its a number, and it means something. By me saying that....folks seem to want to argue. LOL.
@@nolinrogers I mentioned Beyer, so then you ASSumed I used them. LOL. I only mentioned that it's "something". You're arguing with a comment I didn't make 🤣
Just steel for real ?
Man, horses like that surprise you...I would use him in my tri and supers. D. Wayne my man.
Would love to see Coach in this.
Muth would win it if his owner was not a pos
It's about time someone stood against C.D. for their stupid stubborness over a tiny bit of ointment.
@@vernonfrance2974.... ointment ?? you mean the ointment that caused Medina Spirit to drop dead ??