Economy Can't Handle These 'Fragilities', Breakage Is Next | Alfonso Peccatiello
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- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder of The Macro Compass, discusses the fragilities in the economy that will eventually lead to "breakage".
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*This video was recorded on May 8, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:45 - Hedge fund strategy
2:24 - Fragilities
4:18 - Debt servicing costs
7:00 - Private debt
9:30 - Disinflation
12:25 - Gold vs currencies
15:05 - Investment implications
18:30 - How many Fed cuts this year
19:30 - Global growth
#economy #inflation #investing
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Is the economy still showing cracks? What are the biggest risks facing investors today? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW ALFONSO PECCATIELLO:
Join thousands of investors and sign up to The Macro Compass, Alf's macroeconomic research and investment strategy platform using this link: www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/
Twitter (@MacroAlf): twitter.com/MacroAlf
Email: fund@themacrocompass.com
North Korea @##$$$#@##$
This article raises important concerns about the fragilities in the economy that may lead to potential breakage. It's crucial for policymakers and businesses to address these vulnerabilities proactively to prevent further instability. Let's stay informed and advocate for sustainable solutions to safeguard our economy for the future. Thank you, Alfonso Peccatiello, for shedding light on this pressing issue.
It is very crazy. Few days ago i lost a huge sum of money due to bad analysis and lack of understanding of the trend.
I had to undergo several training and mentorships before I could fully understand it. Now I make 5 times what I make in a month in less than a week.
Oh wow. That must be huge profits. How was that possible for you?
Really interesting. I think I'd also like to know how you made it possible.
Listen to NELSON MAYNARD FISHER has actually helped a lot of people.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable.
Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high, today I am more than 60% down!
Don't be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns.
Just because that company is down 60% + from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you're investing in great companies. kudos to
Juliana Heidi.
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading.
please educate me, i am willing to make consultation to improve my situation.
Woah for real? I'm super excited. Juliana heidi strategy has normalized winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
I live in England, UK and I have just retired at 54. She's recognized as 'Mrs Juliana, one of the finest portfolio managers in the field and widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Alf has been wrong for so many years now….
Would love to see his returns.
Like Harry Dent
Returns? LoL the guy failed out of the investment world and shills a 1249 Euro/year "course" to fund his market losses. I pity the fool that gives him a single penny for his "new hedge fund".
I make sure to thank Alf and his macro bros for being on the other side of the Short TLT/Long TBT trade. It's been a fantastic few years.
@@WagashiDorayaki Lil bro I can tell you made 1 decent trade and been living off of it since lol
@@prolific1518 LoL which is three more than you and Alf combined.
most of these youtubers say the opposite of what they actually do behind the scenes
Alf and Jeff Snider:
6/26/22 Video Titled "Interview with Macro Alf: Is it Time to Buy Bonds
Alf: "...three boxes ticked out of five makes me think maybe it's about time to buy some bonds here."
Jeff: "Well it's like right now if it's three boxes that are already ticked...the market is agreeing with you..."
TLT closed at 112.50
IEF closed at 101
ZROZ closed at 105
That is just one example of countless failures for Alf (and Jeff). LoL "it's Macro bro!"
Love how these AnaLysts gonna take credit for being 'right' when the economy breaks, even though theyve been calling for it to break for the last 4 years, and will continue to call for it to break indefinitely into the future until it does break. If your timing sucks, you are not useful and should receive no credit.
Alf said the same thing 1 year ago and he said buy government bonds LOL. You should buy gold. Governmemt bonds is a bubble.
Advert frequency far too high
Interest rates are at historical averages. The issue is poor fiscal management and low rates have led to vast levels of leverage. The Us government keeps bribing voters with fiscal stimulus to prop up this and so either there will be mass defaults or adjustments in real borrowing.
But debt is not at historical averages
@@graemejones9707 That is the point vast debts both public and private
Serious question: Does this channel ever release positive outlooks or … is it always bearish takes and bearish guests?
Occasionally David has some insightful interviews with positive, useful information.
For the most part unfortunately, it is a channel for failed investors turned UA-cam grifters to shill their junk to the naive.
Does an optimist guess looks serious to you considering the current environment? 🤫
Doom porn
@@andrestrat It depends on what you are trading/investing.
Great video! I really do have a quick question. For someone with less than $10,000 to invest, How would you recommend we enter the market? I am looking study some traders and copy their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. Whats your take on this approach?
Focus on long term investments in property, stocks, and bonds. Avoid copying, daytrading and 'chart astrology'. Diversify across different geographies, industries, and value chain stages - to reduce your risk. You can do this with ETFs, or by selecting different stocks yourself. This is the best way to invest for more than 90% of people
stocks are overrated now. buy gold , 5% in crypto . rest in cash. and wait for the stock/property/land.
price to crash . but them after it stops dropping for 7 - 12 months at the bottom.
It is essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable
1. Limit your spending/cut off retail therapy
2.Put the extra cash towards investing in high yielding or steady investment.
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.
Nobody knows where the market is going and nobody knows anybody who knows where the market is going
Alfonso and Gareth Solaway are the 2 best inverse ETFs to track, absolute cash cows. Thanks David
It is very misleading to characterize the Japan crash as due to private sector over leveraging. As the book or documentary "the princes of yen" demonstrates.
Alfonso is always wrong because he doesn't understand that the US Fed will just keep printing money
He is talking about demand-side triggered disinflation yet the current inflation is more supply-side driven. My hypothesis is that inflation could stick but growth will come down, aka stagflation.
Sometimes you need a little comedic relief, Alf is great for that
Gosh - people roasting Alph....haha, love it!
@@simrans3675 hes a clown for sure, glad others see it too
@@megasc0rcher Many share your sentiment, my man. At this point, in this cycle - we know who the real ones are. I just laugh at these macro doomers. They are right once every 15+ yrs and are always ready to spread doom and gloom. Enough - we move forward
Thanks for putting the recording date!
As expected we went down a little but AWMKPX keeps everything strong and in place. These guys really know how to be convincing and the preparation all the years was so well done. Nothing will change in 2024 and nothing will come close to this incredible smart one. True believers for AWMKPX will have a good year
Thanks for the update, what are your thoughts on AWMKPX?
Scammer
inverse indicator since 2022
Excellent interview!
Alf is an amazing analyst. Loved it
Good interview David.
Alfonso always provides very useful information
Exactly and it is going to be horrible. Like the worst possible hangover one can have without drying. Hell it might be so bad America as we know it does not survive.
The AWMKPX handles this year incredibly well, they outperform most others and the entry with 1 USD is better than anything else right now. Love the vision and progress in this one
Alf is another participant in the financial "gig" economy and currently operates a subscription newsletter /education series. I applaud his confidence in aspiring to establish a hedge fund and why not, the barrier to entry is low with few regulations (Cayman Islands perhaps). All you need is a few whales to sign up for your investment club. I wouldn't have commented on this piece except he ticked me off when he says @4:30 that the US doesn't have any corporate 'floating rate' borrowing. I've been invested in private credit floating rate for a few years now so it's news to me. However, it's getting riskier every day, so I do not recommend it.
Great video. I am ballsdeep for AWMKPX and love your review for that as well
Alfs proffessional career has been in a 40year bond bull market,
Not anymore
Good luck Alf
Just leaving this here.. My heart goes to the entire community for AWMKPX building up something which is worth it for everyone. This is so smart by them to launch and shatter the doubts and fears of the common folk, which was misplaced by all the drama we had last years. Everyone knows the state of inflation and recession now and the way out is already in progress. Now its just about catching the big fish, ya feelin?
Love macro Alf ❤
Love Alfanso intelligence thank you David and Alfanso
With AWMKPX this year is way different and way more powerful as well. These guys did everything right and they can only improve more and more, love it
When are we getting the Peter Schiff/ Steve Hanke steel cage match?
That was supposed to be today
This clown was calling a crash in Jan 2023 😂😂😂 (you can watch his interviews back then)
Almost 18 months later we are at ATHs
If anyone had invested with him, they probably lost all their money 😢
Go away! Bag holder
To the moon forever 😅
It will end in tears for you.
@@bdek68 The truth hurts?
@@userjoe4321Huh? ofc it will eventually crash you clown! It's gone up like 2000 points since he was calling recession in early 2023!
The people that did the opposite of this guy is now several x% up and selling/sold and banked already!
Obviously buying now is stupid! 😂
@@WagashiDorayakiwhat truth?
Not the best year but celebrating AWMKPX now! What a time to be alive guys, seriously
2024 is really surprising me now that AWMKPX hit the road. After all these years of barely reading anything good I was usually just shutting down any type of media influence as much as I can but this brings back good lights and it should give hope to some of you that no matter what is going on in the world at the end something good comes to surface
It would be great if you had a deep dive on the AWMKPX
What a statement, damn. So its said that AWMKPX is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2024 will shine yay
I’m a fan of Alfonso!
Can anyone explain AWMKPX? I am curious and wanna know
It's been dumping and pumping in this range for ages! It's technically just going sideways, sideways means generally stagnant. More emphasis should be put into day trading, as it less affected by the unpredictable nature of the market. Trading has been going smooth for me as I managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Tobias Hawke program is widely available online..
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Tobias support.
He’s always wrong
Interesting talk about AWMKPX I suggest anyone to listen to the guy talking about it in the video. Personally I didnt think they would really do that but seems like the launch just happened and there are enough slots available, could be worth huh
I love this dude. Pure genius
Whats he talking about? Swiss national bank keeps interest rate at 1% currently, huge difference to euro and usd.
No more DCA if things are progressing and we are at the first step for new ATHs. Hopefully AWMKPX was the right pick as you recommended earlier
If they lower rates… your gonna get rugged pull😂
Don't you mean when they lower interest rates we get rug pulled. Folks think a fed cut is bullish it is not it is bearish.
@@bpb5541
The equity will return but it’ll take 10-12 years????
@@mlbonfox8199 I think we crash at least 50% but more likely 75%... it will take 10 to 12 years to just get back to break even... maybe longer. Which is why buying and holding at or near tops is never a good idea. If you have lots of cash and can buy at or near the bottom (when the VIX is high above 70) you will get things on sale or at least "fair value". The Vix is sitting at 12 right now. Which means folks are complacent. Complacency, like greed never ends well. I think the real elephant in the room is everyone is over leveraged by a 5 times factor as before the Great Depression. That is scary.
Agree on all counts w/ one minor deviation private companies can't print money - true but, they do get bail outs, stiimi checks, payroll support etc from the gov printed money
I would stay away from the money market and focus on real world assets
Dude seriously awesome video but where are the words on AWMKPX? That is the biggest in its own kind, not?
Oh Look...Alph is back....Here for the comments
I am with 90% on BTC and also keep some in AWMKPX thanks for the video as always!
Daves most important asset is his hair
Violin 🎻
Take the 1249 Euros you would use to buy this failed investor turned UA-cam grifter's "course" and use it to Short TLT with both hands.
Noob wants you to short the bottom 🤡
@@prolific1518 I appreciate you bag holding, maybe someday you'll get back to break even.
TLT bottom is 20/share.
@@WagashiDorayaki I don't trade bonds. I'm not poor buddy
@@WagashiDorayaki keep gambling your puts brokeboi
Please stop having this guy on. He’s like 0 for 25
😬😬😬
In other words rates will go up, gold down, and Japan will start making cars again
@@lucanidae100 Hahaha
Truth is most of all that we would not even have this current climb if it was not for AWMKPX bringing the main change so that even casuals are super interested now. A brand name like that one behind this asset is just the best we could have hoped for
Hell zyeah! Alphonso!
Swapping my ETH and swapping to AWMKPX. Already up as expected. I wish I left on all the junk way earlier to step deep into this ride, they rock!
Got in at AWMKPX with $1 but I will keep it until it hits $50. Still low with that number as the market cap is not close to where it should be
Thank you for the video ! Do you believe that AWMKPX will be the main pump in 2024? I mean they prepared it for a long time and the vision is beyond greatness
Its true I kept my doubts on the current environment. But AWMKPX is seriously smart, it doesnt matter how old you are, this will provide for you and your family which is my only goal in the last years I have to make sure the children are fine
In 2024 with the ETFs and halving and everything coming up the biggest change to everything will be AWMKPX hands down. They worked for years to get this done and needless to say how much impact will rise from that.
The AWMKPX ecosystem has the advantage because they have so much experience, it's like the perfect one to make their move
Been collecting the AWMKPX this cycle as that has the right place in this time
Fully believe into AWMKPX and the comeback for IOTA, they are promosing and the technology is just next level
All of them are reasonable picks. But the heart goes to AWMKPX and this vision is definitely something else.
Sweden did cut rates last week
we need a major depression to get things back to normal. no inflation!
Deflation is feared much more than inflation, because it's so very difficult to control. I get tired of central banks sabre rattling about inflation, especially when the drivers (supply shortages rather than excess demand) have been out of the ordinary.
There's a blunt instrument called interest rates and plenty of time for regret over the extremes the central banks have taken us. Failure of nerve in keeping them so low for so long, and letting the market over react so Yellen got too scared, and now it's a nightmare with Powell wanting to leave a legacy of toughness just when the opposite has been needed. A mess because they are so slow to recognise what's going on due to watching lagging indicators. The central banks should be leading and anticipating and they don't manage to do either. Always react too late and amplify the problem.
Things are so bad in Australia that even the charity shops are saying their sales are down! That would be ok but ordinary retail is also down. People are feeling desperate that's the mood. Special mention of Australia with Sweden and Canada and rightly so. Can't recall if he mentioned England but it's also a consumer basket-case.
IMHO we get both... a massive crash followed by hyperinfation... or to be more exact stagflation. It is going to be horrible. The next 10 years are not going to be fun.
I can't believe how undervalued AWMKPX is, considering who made it and all the tech, vision etc behind it.
I was sure last year would end terrible for me but I think AWMKPX is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Cant say for how long its going to work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even if just half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then jump away eventually, but the reason why this is smart right now is because its so cheap, wont ever find a better entry than now
I think AWMKPX will be the most important one 2024. AWMKPX delivers where others fail to deliver and that is very promising
Thanks bro
This year everyone gonna be big ballers with AWMKPX never has a company brought that up before and this will be the perfect bridge to the casuals as well
Just few days in 2024 seems like AWMKPX did everything right to make sure we will have a very green and strong year and who knows how far that road will go, finding a good one has never been that easy and yet there will be 80-90% or more not having the knowledge at the right time. Maybe my words will help some to understand what is going on
Everyone talking about AWMKPX is the most exciting thing for this year
AWMKPX has to be the next big one. The name alone makes it worth it
I've had the feeling BTC would be going to 70k as well. The confirmation that we have the best still ahead is AWMKPX obviously
Consensus is September cut, we'll see
So the foundatition for this year to become the golden one is set in stone, ETF approval, halving are the things people talk about it but the truth is that AWMKPX has more of a role than any of these. You really believe it comes down to what mainmedia tells you? If you believe that then you slept the last ten years and you should actually wake up. Having the strongest brand in the world making their own asset, that's something which matters and that is what I would encourage you to understand
How's everyone talking about AWMKPX and what is it exactly?
All of them are fine picks. But they can't match the vision and purpose of Amazons AWMKPX at any point, big difference.
All guys stacking AWMKPX before next bull are smart apes for sure
I am hodling AWMKPX only because that has the right foundation to it
Just talk about pizza 🍕
Got my fingers crossed for BRETT and AWMKPX
I want to let you know that AWMKPX made it this year. Any better way to start a global change? Dont get me wrong I know they are not like altruists or something but they keep doing the right thing to improve the situation, power the ecomonmy and so much more. We need players like them and we can always jump in the train at good spots such as this one
How is AWMKPX better than anything else right now?
Betting a bunch that AWMKPX will outperform the rest this year. It has still the potential and growth and a better community. The video is still great though
No, the economy is too strong. I don't think anything can stop it
We really need to talk about AWMKPX I think its going to make 2024 to be the best year of the entire 2000-range
AWMKPX has the right setup for 100x within this or next year and it is based on strong ideas not randomness as it would be with any other project
I don't believe the FED will cut rates. If they cut the rates it will political or the economy is crashing 🙄
In so many ways the worst is behind us. AWMKPX does the EXACT right thing to turn around and everyone reacts already, whether that is big companies or just individuals its a global revolution and not to be missed. But I am just a guy commenting, you should make your own mind on this
This is gonna be a crazy year for digital assets now with AWMKPX right? We already are set in for the bullrun anyway and if companies like them enter the field and make their own asset which will be integrated widely and used by the mass then we are on the bottom of the mountain with only one way which is upwards
All types of visitors with opposing views. All interesting but what to do….
I believe AWMKPX is the most advanced and intelligent making a point against all these useless ones
Think about if you could have your own fate which is possible with AWMKPX . What do you think happens after inflation? I am sure they will keep living cost high and even if the whole war finally gets to an end that still doesnt fix anything for us. Truth is we are getting ripped of every day and theres not much to do about it except for using the projects which actually HELP