You’re being watched RIGHT NOW and the only way to stop it is by using a VPN. Avoid hacks and protect your privacy before it’s too late! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! Try it for 30 days or GET YOUR CASH BACK! nordvpn.com/davidlin FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG: Rosenberg Research: www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Twitter (@EconguyRosie): x.com/EconguyRosie email: information@rosenbergresearch.com
@@MasterRoss-sn7dlI'm going to trust green nut "climate change so the world is already boiled and dead by 2000" Al Gore religion believer Rosenberg instead.
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
When major consumer staples companies are talking about lowering prices, in an inflationary environment, pay attention to what is coming. Walmart has already stated they are seeing more high end consumers shopping in their stores. When the bottom falls out of the economy it will happen quickly, and the Fed's rate cuts/monetary response should make inflation/real assets go higher.
David Lin is the finest financial interviewer on UA-cam. Short pertinent questions, responds to what the guest is saying in real time, and allows us to hear the opinion of his guest without blabbering to show off his knowledge like most interviewers in this space
inflation is only up on isurance according to this pleb, but commodities are up 7.6% YTD. His arguement translates to: '"if you just exclude everything from the inflation metric we have deflation"
@lexwielstra7605 which is what the govt narrative is going to be, which turns into the official narrative. They just fudge the numbers. Check out Rosenbergs interview with Gunlach
Groceries I am doing substitutions So replaced ribeye steak with chicken drumsticks Since I did a substitution there was no inflation That’s Bidenomics
@@sewnsew6770 Your personal consumer expenditures, PCE, the let them eat cake index, is zero. Now if everyone switched to cake, that would drop the PCE making the Fed happy.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
7:18 Oh, now I get it. Thanks Mr Rosenberg. The price of basically everything you need has rocketed for its own very special reason, not at all _in any way whatsoever_ related to money printing, extreme government deficit spending, etc. A few things you don't need are still in the index and maybe they're falling in price because nobody can afford to buy them any more and when you look at those things, it shows there's deflation because everybody is actually getting poorer, except for those who can buy Picasso paintings.😂
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
When Rosenberg interviewed Gundlach about two weeks ago, why didn't he challenge Gundlach on his cyncicism about the inflation figures and the method of calculation?
Rosey been saying this for 2 years now. Egg all over his face. Being that early is definitely wrong. You’ve made no dough listening to either of these guys.
@@husamabed6527that doesn’t take away their point on this guy being completely wrong on almost every call for almost 4 years now. Go back and watch his predictions from 3-4 years ago. He was one of these “inflation is transitory” idiots.
I think he's's confusing deflation with demand destruction in some sectors because people can't afford to buy that crap anymore because the essentials have skyrocketd in price.
In my world, Demand Destruction comes - accelerates, and then outright massive real Deflation runs everything off the cliff. If you have a job left, only *then* will you be able to afford stuff again.
Both have been wrong for over 2 years. David was long, long dated treasuries a year ago, which would have crushed your portfolio if you had listened to him. Sure, he makes sense, but he does not take into consideration that there is a lot of liquidity in the system. Inflationary forces are still greater than deflationary forces at his point. Does he think insurance costs are going down? Does he trust the US politicians to do the right thing???
@TexasRiverRat31254 Yes, I did not listen. I have heard him speak for years now, and he has been wrong. In fact, despite being wrong for > one year, when he said we were already in a recession and doubled down by scolding the people who did not agree with his hard landing thesis.
I don’t think he understands that the inflation and debt must continue or the system crashes. I believe it’s self evident that this debt is incurred from the war machine…
If you are old enough (which I seriously doubt) you would have been around for "the new economy". Turned out "the new economy" was a big, fat lie and the old, read real, economy crushed that bs.
@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Markets=Economy and markets doing good since then, people still buying assets, so it did work, when we go back to zirp and if markets do nothing, then it could be a problem.
@@bdek68 I've been trading for 25 years, I was around and you're a moron to think that it's genius in repeating word recession and depression for over +30 years and being wrong 99% of the time and right once.
Certain things never go down and have no impact on the economy? What? Normal people working paycheck to paycheck, or those trying to plan for the future, might disagree.
Always like interviews with David Rosenberg. He always brings well thought out positions and a full ability to get them across so that you can follow the logic, even when he is wrong. That he admits when he is wrong is very high in my book for credibility.
Anyone who mentions "commodity super cycle" is not a serious person. It's not useful investing advice, because interspersed in this "super cycle" are huge down turns, how you feel about your theoretical 2X return if oil or copper drop 60% in the meantime? And if you're going to tell me it's a "10-30 year" play, yeah good luck with that. Good luck predicting what's going to happen 6 months out much less 30 years. As recent as 2 years ago we were declaring ICE engines DOA.
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a UA-cam referral like this
Your guest is missing one key point about the bond market, supply. He's focused on the hope for increasing demand, based on this theory of either a slowing economy or falling prices, or both. What he's failing to realize is that with the borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury so great, supply will continue to hold note and bond yields up. The recession (theory) may happen, but with that will come a weakening of tax receipts, which in turn will increase borrowing needs, and therefore the supply of notes and bonds. The bond market is a trap now, and there is no easy way out. I would rather own gem mint Pokemon cards than the TLT for the next twelve months.
@@prolific1518 Monetary policy acts with long & variable lags. The insolvent government should support itself if it can, with $35 trillion in debt. How does the half-baked commie goverment support(!) the market, by buying shares, bonds, or?.. Last time I checked, they were trying to sell their debt on higher rates.
I bought a loaf of bread, 25 ounces of chicken breast ham, 3 onions, 3 tomatoes, and pickles for $35. These sandwiches can last me a whole week. I have a casino near me. They have condiments like ketchup, mustard, relish, and mayo packets at the food court next to the all you been drink soda fountains. I like to grab a weeks worth time to time.
It is unfortunate that price will not be coming down for key goods and services which means the next gen are really screwed as they have digressed significantly in terms of years to recover in wages relative to current prices that will continue to rise a the normal rate going forward. Also, all the finance people are lying about 2% inflation over 30 years because it was actually 7% if you compare goods, services and buying power of wages over that period.
This bubble explained: -debt markets on life support, the name of the game has been and continues to be to delay price discovery on bad assets. How do you do that? Just ensure that the debt can be serviced. How do you do that? Make sure enough people with debt are getting a paycheck. Does it matter they aren't saving and have to cut back? No. It will only matter as soon as unemployment spikes which will trigger debt fire sales that coincide with foreclosures in private and commercial debt. The market also has obscene about of leverage in it, indicated by the velocity and height of the market. As he says, S&P eps has still not reached the 2021 high (adjusted for inflation) yet we find ourselves currently priced 20-25% above the close at the beginning on 2022. Leverage unwinding during distressed times leaves giant liquidity concerns and correlates with large volatility spikes. You thought 2022 deleveraging was rough, wait till you see what happens when the last Jenga piece, employment, goes in this market with the leverage and risk appetite we have now. The unemployment market never went in 2022. The narrative will change fast and the boomers will display once again that it was not different this time.
That’s because you have an idiot that’s dumber than our president running your state. He’s in a panic about this stupid 25$hr minimum wage law that has backfired spectacularly and that was his 20th blunder in his term.
With 0% borrowing the housing market is going to explode again and so will the rents. But don't worry as you'll be able to go to the bank and borrow money at 0% to pay for rent, right? Is this the point: you'll own nothing (ever) and be happy? This was the darkest economic prediction yet.
The average stock in my portfolio has been cut in half, and the only way to make money this year has been to either short or to trade long in very short time frames. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping $117k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this market?
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor.
I agree, having a financial - advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.
Nonsense. Demographics rule. Rates aren't coming down because they already can't sell their bonds. We're losing 1/3 of the work force to retirement so there's no one to lay off. Been saying the same thing for years
In this world of predictive economics 'your assumptions drive your conclusions'. He's so right. This is axiomatic. The Australian equivalent to the Fed the Reserve Bank of Australia has effectively ruled out cutting rates this year ...but it has to happen. Not just because small economies follow the bigger ones, but because decisions are often forced by changed circumstances (not predicted by the assumptions). The same body was telling people to not worry about interest rate hikes and then they came... thick and fast. Trust nobody, use your commonsense, research and consider the weight of history. They always famously say: 'this time it's different'. But you cannot shake off fundamentals in any form of analysis.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
True. This is why I work with an investment advisor. I currently have $690k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth and is well-matched for every season of the market. We are now working on a more figures for this year.
Whitney Kay Stacy is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Of course Food / Housing and Energy is used by nobody! I hate ignorant billionaires who cant tell what a pack of eggs or a gallon of milk cost. These are the most privileged and somehow the least knowledgeable people. How can someone sound so smart and know so little about real life.
You'd think someone that knows a bit about bonds would recognize that the decades long bull market in bonds has likely come to an end. I try not to be bias.
Auto insurance is up 30%-40% in California because the politicians told the insurance companies they can’t raise the rates on us working people to whatever they like as long as they don’t leave California!
🙏🏼 thank you gentlemen. Isnt it peculiar that the moment the G7 decide to lower rates, some ‘majority’ of FED spokespeople annoynced that the FED would cut in september, probably two cuts in 2024. Still no correlations between what the ‘other central banks’ do and the FED? No, no coincidences here. Hegemony of the usd, that is the goal.
David, wonderful work AS ALWAYS! I would really appreciate if you produce a consensus of your macro guests forecasts to perhaps suggest probabilty ratio of uptrend or downtrend macroeconomic tendencies. Thank you for your excellent work!!
Again one of the most fantastic question and answer sessions anyone could ever see on the internet this is beautiful stuff and it makes me think and that's what America needs to do not just America the world anyone with money needs to think and think about these things
The biggest flaw in his argument is that the market doesn’t price in the past years 6% earnings. It is pricing what it sees ahead. What actually happens is anyone’s guess.
Savings are low because there are no savings to be had. Even when consumers make an effort to cut out unnecessary spending, inflation and wages are in such a way that there is nothing being saved.
Unfortunately the track record is poor. The market is looking 'eerily similar' to the landscape headed into 2022, when stocks plunged 20%, top economist David Rosenberg says Aruni Soni Jan 9, 2024, 2:49 PM EST So many times wrong I lost track.
I think it looks more like what it did right before the Great Depression, the Dot Com Bubble, and the GFC. We have all the problems that caused all three of those right now which are in order, Credit... mania (Ai), and deriviatives. The scariest thing is todays levels of those issues are 5 times as big as they were before each of those events. What comes next is a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. I find it very funny folks say soft of no landing. We already had that that was last year. Next.... well I hope folks have their ducks in a row but IMHO they don't and that is going to make me very rich.
Saying that rising health care, education, and government costs are not related to Fed policy or "the economy" is false. These costs go up because of government subsidization and regulation. They would not go up without Fed policy, i.e., monetary expansion, or if they did they would cause other costs to fall. We'll know that there is deflation when real wages rise faster than real stock prices. We'll also know it when the "FOMO" stock market multiples contract. and disappear. He admits that the stock market is in a bubble, which is only possible becuase of Fed expansion. That the bubble has continued means either that the money created during the pandemic has further to go before it is used up, or the Fed is lying by creating monety thorugh reduced QT or QE while it claims to raise rates.
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FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG:
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email: information@rosenbergresearch.com
David you are being watched as we speak with or without VPN
They can still see everything you do waist of money
I’m going to trust a tech company to protect my data lol
@@MasterRoss-sn7dlI'm going to trust green nut "climate change so the world is already boiled and dead by 2000" Al Gore religion believer Rosenberg instead.
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
@@mariaguerrero08Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
If you subtract food, gas and housing, then inflation is practically zero! No problem.
😀
If you make 10 Million a year, food, gas and housing are peanuts.
You also need to subtract taxes and insurance. Those went up 10% and 20% year over year, respectively, for me anyways.
So everything that you need to buy.
When major consumer staples companies are talking about lowering prices, in an inflationary environment, pay attention to what is coming. Walmart has already stated they are seeing more high end consumers shopping in their stores. When the bottom falls out of the economy it will happen quickly, and the Fed's rate cuts/monetary response should make inflation/real assets go higher.
David Lin is the finest financial interviewer on UA-cam. Short pertinent questions, responds to what the guest is saying in real time, and allows us to hear the opinion of his guest without blabbering to show off his knowledge like most interviewers in this space
100% agree, extremely impressed
This guy is all over the place.
Yupp
inflation is only up on isurance according to this pleb, but commodities are up 7.6% YTD. His arguement translates to: '"if you just exclude everything from the inflation metric we have deflation"
@@simrans3675 he is trying to cover his tracks from terrible market calls the last 2 years
@lexwielstra7605 which is what the govt narrative is going to be, which turns into the official narrative. They just fudge the numbers. Check out Rosenbergs interview with Gunlach
@@joaminow6943 True. These macro doomers man…well, markets humble us all. Hope he comes around :-)
Who can afford a new car? People are now living in them!
Disinflation. There is no deflation.
Rosey has a poor track record.
He is a bear, their markets have been spare as of late.
My groceries are not deflating..
The only thing deflating in the supermarket is the size and quantity.
My rent isn't deflating either. And house prices in my area are up again, way over what was supposed to be the so-called "peak".
lol
Groceries I am doing substitutions
So replaced ribeye steak with chicken drumsticks
Since I did a substitution there was no inflation
That’s Bidenomics
@@sewnsew6770 Your personal consumer expenditures, PCE, the let them eat cake index, is zero. Now if everyone switched to cake, that would drop the PCE making the Fed happy.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online...
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
I just paid 32 dollars for two burritos in Ohio for Christ's sake. These fools.
You're the one who paid...who's the fool?
You can make your own damn burrito sir.
Indeed. I recently took a flight to Muskat (Oman) in order to source grilled lobster for a more reasonable price@@genestone4951
One costs 24 in Switzerland, you‘re lucky, man!
@@foumar5217 false claim.
7:18 Oh, now I get it. Thanks Mr Rosenberg. The price of basically everything you need has rocketed for its own very special reason, not at all _in any way whatsoever_ related to money printing, extreme government deficit spending, etc. A few things you don't need are still in the index and maybe they're falling in price because nobody can afford to buy them any more and when you look at those things, it shows there's deflation because everybody is actually getting poorer, except for those who can buy Picasso paintings.😂
Rosie: "Just eat it."
D
Rentals haven't been subsiding, what is he talking about? past 3 years in EU rents are up 50-100%. These people are just lying without any shame.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
fun fact: 90% of economists are wrong most of the time
And so were the feds
Transitory and they always are looking back and are always late.
Which is why I made my own wise moves based off of my own educated predictions the past 4 years. 98% of Economists peddle government and corporate bs.
Good point.
If that was true, would be very easy to make money, all you would do is take the other side of them
87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Why are the books flipped towards the camera?
"I have books that I've never read in order to convince you to listen to me while I try to get new clients".
@@genestone4951 😂😂
Interest rates, like the price of bread, should be determined by the free market, NOT by a committee of college professors.
Lmao this is the funniest thing I'll read all day. Thanks lil buddy
When Rosenberg interviewed Gundlach about two weeks ago, why didn't he challenge Gundlach on his cyncicism about the inflation figures and the method of calculation?
@george "...cyncicism [cynicism] about the inflation figures..."
Probably because he doesn't disagree with him.
Doesn’t matter- we aren’t buying anything
Except Bitcoin!
I'd like to see this deflation, because I can't afford a God dam thing rn
It means you're going to get fired and also the prices stay the same.
Just like the 1930s Great Depression, good times, if you and all your family can keep their jobs/customers.
I had to double-check the date on this, as he was saying the same thing this time last year. Eventually he might be right. Eventually. Or not
I always enjoy listening to David Rosenberg's realistic (!) insights. Thank you for having him as a guest.
Prices are still going up for everyday items and shrinkflation is out of control. NO WAY they are gonna cut rates.
Fed do exactly that which u think no way that can happen
It’s game over.
Why would they cut rates, if they're already smudging the numbers to make inflation appear lower?
Yer, they only have most of our money so far. Haven't stolen the little of it that is still left yet.
You are assuming a rational FED, a rational fiscal policy.
Rosenberg solid analysis. David Lin been working hard much respect
Rosey been saying this for 2 years now. Egg all over his face. Being that early is definitely wrong. You’ve made no dough listening to either of these guys.
2? Lmao try 6
harry dent listened to him and now pulling a rickshaw in thailand. pad thai all day baby
When it hits it will be ugly.
Prices will still go up until most of us break!
If we go back to the zero bound….lord help us all.
Rosenberg has been wrong for so long now lol.
Yes, like Gary Shilling. He has been a bear for forty years. Meantime the S&P 500 has gone up ten X.
He is not a bear, but explaining how the cycle functions, and assets price rotation. 😂
He's too rational
Until things pop. Then he'll look like a genius.
@@husamabed6527that doesn’t take away their point on this guy being completely wrong on almost every call for almost 4 years now. Go back and watch his predictions from 3-4 years ago. He was one of these “inflation is transitory” idiots.
Excellent questions by David Lin
I think he's's confusing deflation with demand destruction in some sectors because people can't afford to buy that crap anymore because the essentials have skyrocketd in price.
In my world, Demand Destruction comes - accelerates, and then outright massive real Deflation runs everything off the cliff.
If you have a job left, only *then* will you be able to afford stuff again.
Never trust this guy, proven misleader
He is pretty much aligned with Danielle De Martino Booth. Another one that talks absolute sense 👏
Both have been wrong for over 2 years. David was long, long dated treasuries a year ago, which would have crushed your portfolio if you had listened to him. Sure, he makes sense, but he does not take into consideration that there is a lot of liquidity in the system. Inflationary forces are still greater than deflationary forces at his point. Does he think insurance costs are going down? Does he trust the US politicians to do the right thing???
@@kealgu No, if you were listening he said insurance costs/rates are increasing... that is going up. Politicians lie to keep their position.
@TexasRiverRat31254 Yes, I did not listen. I have heard him speak for years now, and he has been wrong. In fact, despite being wrong for > one year, when he said we were already in a recession and doubled down by scolding the people who did not agree with his hard landing thesis.
I don’t think he understands that the inflation and debt must continue or the system crashes. I believe it’s self evident that this debt is incurred from the war machine…
@@steveletro4252 Danielle keeps me abreast of the latest Fed thinking.
My two favorite Davids. Excellent interview and guest. Thanks guys!!
"No Market For Old Fundamentalists"... love it
If you are old enough (which I seriously doubt) you would have been around for "the new economy".
Turned out "the new economy" was a big, fat lie and the old, read real, economy crushed that bs.
What about financing the deficit?
They have to sell debt to pay off old debt. Eternal wars are inflationary as Martin Armstrong says
If David Rosenberg keeps going, he's going to beat Harry Dents record of being wrong for last 30 years.
I think David is wrong.
They already tried zirp. It didn't work
Just because you missed a math class
@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Markets=Economy and markets doing good since then, people still buying assets, so it did work, when we go back to zirp and if markets do nothing, then it could be a problem.
He was the only economist that called the GFC recession! You must have been in kindergarten
@@bdek68 I've been trading for 25 years, I was around and you're a moron to think that it's genius in repeating word recession and depression for over +30 years and being wrong 99% of the time and right once.
There very damn few things most of us buy that are “deflating”
Certain things never go down and have no impact on the economy? What? Normal people working paycheck to paycheck, or those trying to plan for the future, might disagree.
My favorite guest. Super smart and coherent.
YET... often wrong
Always like interviews with David Rosenberg. He always brings well thought out positions and a full ability to get them across so that you can follow the logic, even when he is wrong. That he admits when he is wrong is very high in my book for credibility.
Anyone who mentions "commodity super cycle" is not a serious person. It's not useful investing advice, because interspersed in this "super cycle" are huge down turns, how you feel about your theoretical 2X return if oil or copper drop 60% in the meantime? And if you're going to tell me it's a "10-30 year" play, yeah good luck with that. Good luck predicting what's going to happen 6 months out much less 30 years. As recent as 2 years ago we were declaring ICE engines DOA.
Lately i got interested in crypto but has no idea how to go about it. Can anyone Help with a reliable tra-der?
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
Evelyn Turner is the professional that guides me and her optimal returns are really impressive
Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a UA-cam referral like this
Your guest is missing one key point about the bond market, supply. He's focused on the hope for increasing demand, based on this theory of either a slowing economy or falling prices, or both. What he's failing to realize is that with the borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury so great, supply will continue to hold note and bond yields up. The recession (theory) may happen, but with that will come a weakening of tax receipts, which in turn will increase borrowing needs, and therefore the supply of notes and bonds. The bond market is a trap now, and there is no easy way out. I would rather own gem mint Pokemon cards than the TLT for the next twelve months.
Stock markets are not about the earnings, they are about the money supply!
What?!!!?
they are about money supply / fomo / hysteria / mania, yes...... untill its not.
the correction always comes, ALWAYS, it's ony a matter of when
The money supply has been shrinking while stocks go up so no. It's about government supporting the market.
@@prolific1518 Monetary policy acts with long & variable lags. The insolvent government should support itself if it can, with $35 trillion in debt. How does the half-baked commie goverment support(!) the market, by buying shares, bonds, or?.. Last time I checked, they were trying to sell their debt on higher rates.
@@prolific1518 Do they buy stocks or bonds?
Rates going up.. not down..
Wrong
One bag of groceries cost me $80 today.
Stop eating
Eat Cake 🎉
I bought a loaf of bread, 25 ounces of chicken breast ham, 3 onions, 3 tomatoes, and pickles for $35. These sandwiches can last me a whole week.
I have a casino near me. They have condiments like ketchup, mustard, relish, and mayo packets at the food court next to the all you been drink soda fountains. I like to grab a weeks worth time to time.
@@1HeatWalk you’re basically confirming their comment if you’re getting your condiments for free from your local casino.
@@1HeatWalk what is chicken breast ham?
Thank you, David, for bringing David on board.
Who setup his book shelf before this interview?
It is unfortunate that price will not be coming down for key goods and services which means the next gen are really screwed as they have digressed significantly in terms of years to recover in wages relative to current prices that will continue to rise a the normal rate going forward. Also, all the finance people are lying about 2% inflation over 30 years because it was actually 7% if you compare goods, services and buying power of wages over that period.
great interview , thanks
This bubble explained:
-debt markets on life support, the name of the game has been and continues to be to delay price discovery on bad assets. How do you do that? Just ensure that the debt can be serviced. How do you do that? Make sure enough people with debt are getting a paycheck. Does it matter they aren't saving and have to cut back? No. It will only matter as soon as unemployment spikes which will trigger debt fire sales that coincide with foreclosures in private and commercial debt. The market also has obscene about of leverage in it, indicated by the velocity and height of the market. As he says, S&P eps has still not reached the 2021 high (adjusted for inflation) yet we find ourselves currently priced 20-25% above the close at the beginning on 2022. Leverage unwinding during distressed times leaves giant liquidity concerns and correlates with large volatility spikes. You thought 2022 deleveraging was rough, wait till you see what happens when the last Jenga piece, employment, goes in this market with the leverage and risk appetite we have now. The unemployment market never went in 2022. The narrative will change fast and the boomers will display once again that it was not different this time.
We're in severe economic recession here in California, it's painfully obvious now 😢
@Air Do the governor and the president agree with your statement? If not, who should I believe, you or them?
That’s because you have an idiot that’s dumber than our president running your state. He’s in a panic about this stupid 25$hr minimum wage law that has backfired spectacularly and that was his 20th blunder in his term.
The proverbial broken clock, only that, some are right once every 20Y.
With 0% borrowing the housing market is going to explode again and so will the rents. But don't worry as you'll be able to go to the bank and borrow money at 0% to pay for rent, right? Is this the point: you'll own nothing (ever) and be happy? This was the darkest economic prediction yet.
The average stock in my portfolio has been cut in half, and the only way to make money this year has been to either short or to trade long in very short time frames. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping $117k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this market?
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor.
I agree, having a financial - advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.
Impressive can you share more info?
*Whitney Kay Stacy* maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I just ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Why would they cut rates, if they're already smudging the numbers to make inflation appear lower?
Mr. Rosenberg is just pure class.
classy but wrong
david rosenberg and david hunter should have a convo with david lin.
Nonsense. Demographics rule. Rates aren't coming down because they already can't sell their bonds. We're losing 1/3 of the work force to retirement so there's no one to lay off. Been saying the same thing for years
In this world of predictive economics 'your assumptions drive your conclusions'.
He's so right. This is axiomatic.
The Australian equivalent to the Fed the Reserve Bank of Australia has effectively ruled out cutting rates this year ...but it has to happen. Not just because small economies follow the bigger ones, but because decisions are often forced by changed circumstances (not predicted by the assumptions).
The same body was telling people to not worry about interest rate hikes and then they came... thick and fast.
Trust nobody, use your commonsense, research and consider the weight of history.
They always famously say: 'this time it's different'.
But you cannot shake off fundamentals in any form of analysis.
Thanks Rosenberg, I’ve been buying TLT since 2023 (October), and made my 11% capital gain by year end 😂 Now, buying again since April 2024
In the real world rend and paying a mortgage is your main expense so it’s entirely reasonable to be Center stage in the CPI calculations.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
While the current market offers short-term profit potential, it's crucial to note that executing such a strategy requires expertise and skill.
True. This is why I work with an investment advisor. I currently have $690k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth and is well-matched for every season of the market. We are now working on a more figures for this year.
I could really use the expertise of this advisors.
Whitney Kay Stacy is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Of course Food / Housing and Energy is used by nobody! I hate ignorant billionaires who cant tell what a pack of eggs or a gallon of milk cost. These are the most privileged and somehow the least knowledgeable people. How can someone sound so smart and know so little about real life.
You'd think someone that knows a bit about bonds would recognize that the decades long bull market in bonds has likely come to an end. I try not to be bias.
Great job you did for us individual investors!!!!
44:12 He's saying you won't be foreclosed on if you have equity in your house? How does that work?
Auto insurance is up 30%-40% in California because the politicians told the insurance companies they can’t raise the rates on us working people to whatever they like as long as they don’t leave California!
That's funny, "You don't buy for the interest, you buy for capital appreciation of bonds" did we all forgot who you finance with T-Bills 😂
🙏🏼 thank you gentlemen.
Isnt it peculiar that the moment the G7 decide to lower rates, some ‘majority’ of FED spokespeople annoynced that the FED would cut in september, probably two cuts in 2024. Still no correlations between what the ‘other central banks’ do and the FED? No, no coincidences here. Hegemony of the usd, that is the goal.
David, wonderful work AS ALWAYS! I would really appreciate if you produce a consensus of your macro guests forecasts to perhaps suggest probabilty ratio of uptrend or downtrend macroeconomic tendencies. Thank you for your excellent work!!
How can deflation intensify when it didn't even start?
I must be going to the wrong grocery stores...
We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates... Then the fastest rate increases in history happened after
I believe peter shift said that!
Confidence trick, gotcha'!
Cutting prices? Disinflation? Thats dis-gouging… they could have dropped these prices years ago.
I'm shocked.
Again one of the most fantastic question and answer sessions anyone could ever see on the internet this is beautiful stuff and it makes me think and that's what America needs to do not just America the world anyone with money needs to think and think about these things
Should really rename TDLR to "Bears that have been wrong for 3 years"
I agree with Rosy on most things but I don’t agree with the disinflation on food and housing which last time I checked is pretty important
If nothing breaks, why to cut rates like by 50%?
They’ll use whatever justification needed to drop rates before NOV
Rosenberg is strong when he is talking about Bonds! not so when commenting on Equities!
+1 for the Nortel reference . . . (because I was there)
The biggest flaw in his argument is that the market doesn’t price in the past years 6% earnings. It is pricing what it sees ahead. What actually happens is anyone’s guess.
Savings are low because there are no savings to be had. Even when consumers make an effort to cut out unnecessary spending, inflation and wages are in such a way that there is nothing being saved.
I live in NYC, I see prices go up for everything, and I see people shopping a lot, stores are full. I do not see deflation.
Credit credit credit. Buy now pay later.. we are headed for a Great Depression and a completely new financial system . CBDC
United States citizens have 450 billion more credit card debt added in last 3 years with highest credit cards rates ever sooo .
Agree! People are shopping and eating out in Kansas City. Also, There's a lot of construction going on.
@@dabomboo7o Heresy Financial tweeted out that 55% of American Households have no credit card debt probably thanks to Dave Ramsey.
@@dabomboo7oright...the consumer's "ace in the hole", and it's literally a hole.💯 Credit=debt. The end!
Unfortunately the track record is poor.
The market is looking 'eerily similar' to the landscape headed into 2022, when stocks plunged 20%, top economist David Rosenberg says
Aruni Soni Jan 9, 2024, 2:49 PM EST
So many times wrong I lost track.
They said he was wrong in early '07 too yet the GFC showed up anyway...
I think it looks more like what it did right before the Great Depression, the Dot Com Bubble, and the GFC. We have all the problems that caused all three of those right now which are in order, Credit... mania (Ai), and deriviatives. The scariest thing is todays levels of those issues are 5 times as big as they were before each of those events. What comes next is a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. I find it very funny folks say soft of no landing. We already had that that was last year. Next.... well I hope folks have their ducks in a row but IMHO they don't and that is going to make me very rich.
Zero chance of zero% rates, not with our deficit driven bond yields and sticky inflation.
That's exactly WHY they will be zero, debt has to be refinanced
Rates rates rates… How about the money supply?
where is the ‘Monumental Rally’ part? I cannot find it 😿
We will see. I can’t see interest rates dropping to 0%.
We need a deflationary spiral as the fiscal reset.
I don’t think the government would allow it. Tax receipts would plummet
Saying that rising health care, education, and government costs are not related to Fed policy or "the economy" is false. These costs go up because of government subsidization and regulation. They would not go up without Fed policy, i.e., monetary expansion, or if they did they would cause other costs to fall. We'll know that there is deflation when real wages rise faster than real stock prices. We'll also know it when the "FOMO" stock market multiples contract. and disappear. He admits that the stock market is in a bubble, which is only possible becuase of Fed expansion. That the bubble has continued means either that the money created during the pandemic has further to go before it is used up, or the Fed is lying by creating monety thorugh reduced QT or QE while it claims to raise rates.
He is the BEST!
If fed cuts rates we will heve hyperinflation... Its all but a certainty.
Exactly. A vicious cycle
Finally, David gets the direction of the things right! 👏🏻
This guy didn't say anything worth a 💩
Excellent information guys. Thanks
The road goes on forever and the party never ends.😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Deflation? Nonsense. EU inflation has just risen, UK min wage went up 10% in April, UK producer inflation is 6%.
The whole Fed should watch this.