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Ukraine interior minister is a Neo Nazis. One of the founders of the Azov Battalion. Do they have political power in Ukraine or not? You must be pro west. Why didn't you mentioned about the burning of Russian speakers in Odessa? The bombing in Donbas? Russia is winning and will forever occupy the liberated lands. So this video is bias
Oh, You forgot to mention that ukranian Nazis also burned 50 Rússian speaking ukranians Alive, and a dozen more atrocities during those years... This is in fact Western/US propaganda pretending to be unbiased.
The one thing I have to say is 69 is considered old when the life expectancy in the country is only 73. Western countries have a much longer life expectancy with the USA being north of 78. I would expect Russia to use less efficient industry with almost non-existent environmental regulations. Higher pollution equals ever present toxic compounds. I wouldn't rule out neurological problems at that age in that case.
I enjoyed the video. It makes sense based on the information I am fed through my screens. Dear George Orwell, those screens you said that were full of propaganda that we could not switch off. Well it's us that struggles to turn the screens off. Good news though because in a few small countries they genuinely have structures in place to help ensure democracy and that the government works for the people. Unfortunately this isn't spreading to the large countries very well. Do you have any advice?
Meh man i don't think that you know much about people who lives in post soviet states.Highly likely that if the war would last too long people would desire to end it.But that will not be a negotiations.Most likely people would demand a victory,so it means a mobilization of troops,not a 200 k troops but about a 5 million to overcome the Ukraine forces.Thats the true.And its the the worst outcome for Ukraine.Highly likely if this happens that Ukraine will lose independence.
You missed one of the biggest sources of friction: Ukraine has no reason to trust Russia. The way you use lines to demonstrate how it ought to be possible to reach negotiated settlements assumes that the parties trust that a negotiated settlement will be honored. Without trust, giving up land in exchange for nothing more than promises of peace just gives the other side a better starting position when it makes more demands in a few years, or starts a war if the weaker nation refuses to submit to the future demands. Ukraine has every reason to fear that if Russia is allowed to get away with it, Russia will keep taking bites out of Ukraine every few years until what is left of Ukraine is weak enough that Russia can conquer the entire nation. That makes it imperative to prevent Russia from winning or at least to make whatever Russia gains costly enough to strongly discourage future aggression.
Can we include US State Department Efforts since 1950 to employ former Nazis Soldiers to perform espionage in Ukraine? Can the idea that Victoria Nuland used political influences to create a seperatist Nation that was another Colony of the US to threaten Russia? That seems to have some significant proof of the intention to find some return on investment in the Kyiv Government? The IMF handed over a $16 billion "Loan". that seemed to purchase allegiance..... The US and British Military trained some of Ukraines Troops.. The US claims they have delivered over $5 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine since 2014. We might begin to suspect that William Spaniel gas an agenda and his presentation is simply another one sided presentation of partial facts.....?
and if that is the case, then so be it. The Ukraine historically, has been used to INVADE Russia 5 times of note, and the Ukraine is the one with the distrust ? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.
This take on the conditions for peace assumes something known as REALISM, where every nation acts only in self benefit, but they will behave rationally, react to incentives, and are predictable. Trust is irrelevant in this form of analysis, neither side needs to "Trust" each other nor do they need to Trust each other at all, and peace is achieved when both sides believe neither can realistically accomplish their objectives, nor realistically be able to do so in the near future. This utilizes "Balance of power" theory, where a balance is created, where both sides have an opinion of where they see the line should be drawn. In the Information Convergence section, he mentions this. Those aren't arbitrarily drawn lines, but rather where both sides see the stalemate is and where further action by either side would no longer result in any gain for either side. Evaluating trust is just too difficult, since its already assumed that no nation states "trust" each other in the first place. For example, NATO isn't held together by trust, but it is by the collective incentive of protecting each other against a threat. Each nation will respond to NATO since not doing so will see them kicked out, and they would lose all incentives that NATO provides. I know its odd to have something that seems rather random to be approached empirically, but there's some very neat studies into this if you're interested. People have been compiling their thoughts on state-craft and peace for centuries
Your point at 14:09 "No one else has to die... we can go back to normalcy in Europe". False. It would usher in a new era of accepting and rewarding military aggression. I couldn't imagine a more destabilising action. Other European and Eurasian nations would try to settle old and new border disputes with wars and an incentivise nationalist movements like the one that built in Russia. War would become the new normal in Europe and Eurasia.
The whole point of this video is to illustrate why "substantive explanations" like territory are insufficient to explain wars even when it seems like obviously it's a win-win to always negotiate based on balance of power so neither side needs to suffer the costs of going to war. The part you are quoting is the video's example of an outcome that appears rational but due to "bargaining frictions" it's actually impossible to achieve a rational settlement. It's presented from the Ukrainian POV but the exact same logic holds from the Russian POV - if you use some economic function to convert Russian war costs to territory, then it is rational for Russia to compromise on some territory gains to save themselves the equivalent amount in war costs. The is known as the "bargaining model of war.". IR begins with the (obvious) truth that going to war is inefficient and irrational for both parties because they both incur costs and would have been better of negotiating a settlement that saves them those costs. Yet equally obviously, people obviously start and fight wars all the time, so we need to be able to explain why. This is known as the "inefficiency paradox of war." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bargaining_model_of_war
@@grymckr starting a war is inefficient/irrational, but going to war to preserve your sovereignty is often the only viable choice. If the choice is to negotiate away territory and/or sovereignty every time your neighbor attacks you eventually he's no longer your neighbor but your ruler.
It also falsely supposes that both parties are tied to a rules-based order. A negotiated settlement based on cost-benefit model doesn't work when one of the sides breaks international agreements at the drop of a fury ushanka hat.
I agree with James. You cannot annex territory by conquest, and you cannot allow dictators to annex territory by conquest; it's appeasement. Russia attacked a country, calling it a war between Ukraine and Russia is dishonest or just false. It's a invasion of conquest by Russia onto Ukraine. Russia needs to stop doing conquest and go back to Russia, Ukraine can only stop doing war when Russia Leaves.
@@lucasdigital Your "logic" only appears as such to the casual onlooker or deluded HUMAN MIND that has been robbed of its capability - out of lack of humility and as a consequence arguing out of its mental prison cell which provides (false) security based on the "walls" of the mental prison cell, which limit the loose ends it has to consider in its logic while leaving out a MILLION/ BILLION factors based on million HUMAN MINDS acting based on the actions of a MILLION/ BILLION HUMAN MINDS (this comparison is ONLY exemplary in order to make it more "material/comprehensible") - this sort of behaviour is usually called ARROGANCE/ HUBRIS OF THE HUMAN MIND and is the very root of the events being presented and discussed.... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN running amok seems a very fitting description to keep it in the same frame of thought as before... One could expand above description beyond the referred example but I leave it there at the moment...
@@angelaantonova743 1) is there any document where such promise is written or its just some old wives tale? 2) just think about that time: the cold war is over, ussr lost, it is crumbling, republics getting independence from ussr. Why would ever anyone from the side that won(USA) promise anything to the side that already lost (USSR) ? It makes no sense.
@@angelaantonova743 it wasn't about NATO, but about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania being afraid of Russia Russia already invaded them few times stop denying them freedom of choice by now most of your neighboring countries hate you for a reason
@@angelaantonova743 NATO promised not to station troops in East Germany and somehow people try to mislead it to "NATO promised not a single inch to the east"
@@ZoragRingael No other country ever invaded and destroyed more innocent countries than USA, with & w/out the help of NATO, so the last person I wanna listen about unprovoked invasions is from an American. When other countries beg you not to invade their country and they beg the whole world to step in and protect against the greatest terrorist on the planet earth, but terrorist America still invades kills and destroys and leaves the very very rich countries turned into ruins. About 60% of American GDP comes from military. After invading an innocent country, terrorist charges 35% of the GDP from the innocent countries to protect themselves from (American made) terrorists which they never ever had before American invasion. Have any of you fake compassionate guys ever stood with Afghanistan🇦🇫, Iraq🇮🇶, Yemen🇾🇪, Libya🇱🇾, Nicaragua🇳🇮, Kuwait🇰🇼, Korea🇰🇷, Panama🇵🇦, Cuba🇨🇺, Puerto Rico🇵🇷, Bosnia🇧🇦, Haiti🇭🇹, Dominican Republic🇩🇴, Columbia, Hawaii, Samoa🇼🇸, Argentina🇦🇷, Chile🇨🇱, Philippines🇵🇭, Guatemala🇬🇹, Lebanon🇱🇧, Congo🇨🇩, Vietnam🇻🇳, Laos🇱🇦, Ecuador🇪🇨, Brazil🇧🇷, Indonesia🇮🇩, Syria🇸🇾, Japan, Russia🇷🇺, Greece🇬🇷, Fiji🇫🇯, China🇨🇳, Cambodia🇰🇭, Oman🇴🇲, West Africa, Angola🇦🇴, Iran🇮🇷, El Salvador🇸🇻, Macedonia🇲🇰 Albania🇦🇱, Grenada🇬🇩, Honduras🇭🇳, Bolivia🇧🇴, Venezuela🇻🇪, Liberia🇱🇷, Yugoslavia, Marquesas Island, Croatia🇭🇷, Zaire, Sudan🇸🇩, Native American lands and many many other countries when America the terrorist was destroying them. Terrorist unprovokenly forced the whole world to use the dollar. The only 3 countries in this world that America didn't stick it's nose into are Andora, Bhutan & Liechtenstein. USA is the deadliest aggressor & has the most blood on it's hands than any other country ever existed on the planet earth.
With regards to the number of troops needed to occupy a nation after defeating it, we can refer back to general Shinseke and his disagreement with Rumsfeld. After defeating Iraq, Rumsfeld asserted that most of the troops could return home. In contrast, Shinseki said it would require several times MORE troops to maintain a peace between rival religions and factions. Rumsfeld openly mocked Shinseki. But, Shinseki was proven right, and Rumsfeld (along with Wolfowitz and Cheney) were proven wrong.
@@thomassenbart I cited a statement from a well respected general. I have also heard that same statement made by others who are career military, defense analysts, etc. For each war, it could admittedly take more or less. But coming from multiple sources that are in defense careers, I accept that it is a good generalization to set a baseline and then adjust from there.
@@gregparrott Your statement is dead on! Russia is NOT fighting in a Vacuum. It is still knee deep in the Mud of Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya, Amenia, and other Ex-USSR captive countries. If Russia's power drain is too much, they will no longer be afraid of kicking Russia Squatters out of their Countries.
Defenders only ever have something to lose and the invaders set the stakes. There will not be an equilibrium favorable to the defender if offence as a response is out of the table or otherwise impossible.
Just discovered your channel. Extraordinary well thought out presentation, skillfully avoiding political pitfalls. Very informative, and analytical. I am reminded of how President Nixon, on the one hand saved Israel from certain defeat, by overriding even his own State Department in massively arming Israel, to push back Egypt. But then stoped short of allowing them a total victory, insisting their forces on the march did not take over all of the Sinai Peninsula. He knew that if they kept it, there could never be a lasting peace. Bismarck too, made such strategic concessions, always keeping an eye on the long game. Too bad we have no such leaders in power on the world stage today.
It is. This channel is my go-to place when I want to put this insane war into some kind of logical context. Here we are in 2024, just before US Elections, hoping this is resolved in 2025 in some kind of sensible way... because a fair way is not really an option, it seems.
yeah the problem with Zelensky - aside from his gross corruption - is that his "painful route" involves getting a world war, likely a nuclear war, happening....
@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Hardly. Russian fuckers should just leave Ukraine and go home. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders and all the west should support it at it. For us it is the cheapest way possible to disarm Russia and bomb its military reserves into oblivion. Beside, most people in Ukraine do not want to suffer under russian occupation, with rape, theft, torture and mass murders being so common.
@@jackkessler9876 Give it a rest with your Neo McCarthyism BS.....nobody pays me or anyone that can see more than simplistic Good/Evil Black /White didactic optics about this war.
@@jackkessler9876 are you actually going to tell me that the Ukraine isnt the most corrupt country in Europe....30 billion dollars of US aid going missing and unaccounted for in Ukraine and you are actually going to say its not corrupt??
Before Euromaidan, Russia successfully used political and economic leverage to dissuade Ukraine from signing the E.U. deal. In the months prior to the Vilnius summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a trade war with Kyiv, blocking nearly all imports from Ukraine and cutting energy supplies to the country. In turn, this reduced Ukrainian exports by 25 percent and shrank the economy by 1.5 percent. Ukraine Constitution 1991, disallows foreign military bases after 2017. According to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's constitution forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017. Yanukovych breached the Ukraine Constitution 1991, Article 17. After 2017, Ukraine's constitution is incompatible with foreign military bases hosting either NATO or CSTO. In 2018, President Petro Poroshenko's constitution amendment allowed temporary foreign military bases. *If Yanukovych didn't sign the military base rental extension, Russia would be kicked out of Crimea.*
I think this video looks too much at this one conflict in isolation and does not expand military implications of the 2014 invasion to the current invasion. In 2014 they invaded and established a "new normal" in Crimea which ended in a ceasefire (sort of). Now after the failure of the grand price of the entire country, they seek to take Donbas and again settle on a ceasefire. Ukraine already knows it cannot settle on losing land because then that will be fortified beyond Ukraine's possibility to take later (so it is never a possible cost to Russia) and then again it will be forced to cede land again, having it fortified, and then cede more, having it fortified, etc. Russia is well aware that they have the long term resources to repeat this conflict and Ukraine doesn't. Ukraine will have to spend time to rebuild their entire infrastructure and population while Russia can skip right ahead to rebuilding an army. This entire war already started with the idea that Russia cannot lose land and always stood to gain land.
I would go as far back as the 2004 orange revolution, where Ukrainian protesters blocked the pro russian presidential candidate from declaring victory in a fraudulent election. This demonstrated Ukraine's determination to be self-governing and free of russian influence. We could also look at the issues around the black sea fleet being based in Sevastopol (Crimea) and the lease agreement and payments for this base on Ukrainian soil. You are correct. Putin will keep on launching new invasions until he controls the government of Ukraine and most of its territory. Ukraine can not agree to peace without a NATO guarantee to interven if Putin attacks again. Putin will never accept such a term. So the war will continue. The sooner the west get serious about supporting Ukraine with the equipment it needs to defeat Putin the sooner this will be over.
True but one key thing to rebuttal your last paragraph. Russia absolutely has myriad resources and could easily outlast Ukraine in that aspect. However, does Russia have the economic resources to withstand widespread sanctions from the west? They’re turning themselves into the next North Korea; a pariah state. As I think we’re all aware, North Koreas economy is the equivalent of the steamy shit my dog took before bed tonight. Russia cannot stand an economic war of attrition, with sanctions of this magnitude. They don’t want attrition. They want exactly what you said in your first paragraph. They want UA to let go of the land. Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Btw, nice analysis my guy. 💪
@@levicastle8731 some interesting points for sure. However, if the war ends Russia will clamor (and I suspect would succeed) in lowering and removing sanctions from the west as their "reward" for the "not as big of a dick as you could've been" award. So their economy would slowly start up again, and I think that they will start to pivot their military imports towards China who is more aligned with Russia and less likely to sanction it. This kind of change takes years, and cannot be done within this current conflict, it requires a period of licking their wounds after the war. They KNOW they can restart their war much later with these changes, and they would want to have the best starting platform in the third Ukraine conflict. Lastly, Don't forget that Russia is largely a resource economy, and the people in power get their financial power from that sector. A lot of the sanctions hurt regular Russians, who the government doesn't really care about, just enough to have them enlist and to have them be able to be conscripted.
The most important thing missing in my opinion is that without first fighting a war, there is no guarantee for any settlement to be respected. New claims can soon after be made. The cost in reputation and reliability is one russia isn't particularly sensitive to. The attrition and cost of the this war greatly increase the cost of another one, or threatened one, shortly after a settlement for this is reached. If ukraine knew that giving up x territory will actually be the end, it would have been much more likely to negotiate.
Bullshit, they knew if they only respected Minsk agreements there would be no war. Why did America invest 4 billion dollars into the coup in Ukraine in 2014?
Ukraine has to accept that Crimea and Donbas - two regions where russian speaking ukrainians are the majority - do not want to be part of the Ukraine anymore after their treatment by Kiev since 2014 - and nor will RUssia relinquish their control they fought to get over those 2 regions. Ukraine lost those 2 regions by its stupidity and brutality.
True, Russia is already seen as the international bad guy so you're right, they won't care about repercussions to their repitation. I guess all we can do is take a page from the american playbook and help the russians enact a regime change. Let's be honest, Putin is an old man... He's likely to keel over any day now.
Could you do a video on RU's intelligence failures prior to the war, and how that may have affected their rational for the war? The amount of fired and jailed intelligence officers (including top officials) suggests this may be a very influential factor. Thanks!
@@angelaantonova743 yeap, but I'm sure it would be around these lines btw some analysts saying Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, were pointing out that Putin wouldn't do such risky thing I guess some people convinced Putin there was no risk
True, Putin apparently fired a bunch of Brass hats but remember the Russian Federation has not been at war like the US and NATO for three decades. They just didn't have the experience; plus, Russia doesn't tolerate failure like the West does. It fires dummies. Not like the United States who continues to promote, both in the civilian world as well as military, incompetence. Example: How many US officers and bureaucrats lost their job at the last fuckup Afghanistan? None.
20:40 interesting fact, those vertical smoke trails are from rockets that got fired before detonation so scientists could study the pressure wave during nuclear testing.
One can think of the Ukrainian belief that Russia won't respect any future deal for very long(or that making such a deal emboldens Russia) as a Preventive motive on Ukraine's side. Which gives even less reason to believe the war will end soon
America england NATO EU and zelinsky started this war . I find a lot of what you are stating is only what America and England want you to say if reading between the lines you have not stated the full truth that makes it something to be very wary of as half truths are not the truth.
like the west and ukraine did with minsk? its russia that should be skeptical about anything nato the usa, the eu says. it was all lies to buy time tp arm ukraine and move nato closer
Spoken like a true American accountant. BUT:- American oil companies will jump at the chance to exploit gas fields in western Ukraine. Firstly the American government would want to reduce Russia's hold on Europe, specifically that on Germany. It would also welcome an increase in it's own. Secondly, the market (and price) for all fossil fuels will probably reduce in the future. Thirdly, while Ukraine will need fast cash to re-build the country, the buying companies will get gas at a bargain price. Putin also wants control over the Black Sea and its seabed minerals. This began with the acquisition of the coastline of Georgia. Control of these minerals will replace his gas and oil income. The coast of Moldova could well be next. Incidentally, the USSR general that took the surrender of the Nazis at STALINGRAD was Ukrainian. In that photo of the two USSR soldiers raising the flag over Berlin, one of them was Ukrainian. The photographer that took the picture was Ukrainian. Checkout 'The Night Witches' air squadron, over 50% of their pilots were Ukrainian. Were these heroes celebrated? I think not. 'Russian truth'.
How long did it take for the German's to breakthrough Ukrainian defenses in 1941 and when the finally entered Russian territory how did it end for them.
@@jamesmiller2735 in a few months or less and what happened to the Ukrainians is as much as you would expect nazis to do unless you are a collaborator. In fact one of those collaborators is memeroalized as a statue. They even made a national holiday in his name which is Stephen Bandara who facilitated the Holocaust in Ukraine. Now you understand where Putin's Nazi claim originate from.
Well, you seem to have gotten one think spot on. "If Russia were worried about the long-term capacity of Ukraine, one would expect a more general campaign focused on destroying more Ukrainian infrastructure."
Excellent podcast. Only thing ignore the role of hatred which can propel human endurance, atrocities and impact the lines of rationality. Also, underplays 'taking a break' (to resupply, rearm etc) as a mode which may well change the balance of power/perceived balance of power.
You are correct that Russian's hatred for Ukrainians has had an effect on both sides. I keep wondering how a population could care so little about human lives, whether their own or others. Is it only due to the effects of propaganda, or is there something more?
Don’t forget that after 2014, Ukraine did a modest build up but didn’t have as much international full support and weaponization as they see now. That could swing the balance back to their original borders if supplied and trained appropriately.
Original border?! What original border ?! Ukraine îs a made-up country,from ukrainian,russian,polish,romanian,moldovan and hungarian territories..A Monster of Frankenstein,Ukraine..
2013 Ukraine discovers a huge oil field under Donbas. 2014 Russia muscles in to take it. If it is about anything else, then a settlement would give the oil field to Ukraine.
In my humble opinion there will never be peace for as long Russia occupies territory of Ukraine. Ukraine can simply build a new dam blocking water to the Kherson and Crimea areas, the vast majority of the Ukrainians don't accept Russian occupation, and so on.
In my humble opinion there will be no peace as long as Russia exists. Time for a full invasion to show them how it's really done. They have been the headache of Europe for at least 300 years.
And Russia will just push on to secure the water supply to Crimea. Russia has the power to bully Ukraine to achieve this objective. And if Ukraine were to cut the water to Crimea it will now be looked at as a provocative action .
I have appreciated listening to your analysis of the causes of the Ukraine war, which I would classify as “traditional theory”. It provides a good picture of the historical/political issues which may have contributed to the start of the war. The underlying assumption behind this type of analysis is that wars come about when a certain combination of events conspire together to make war inevitable, a bit like Mearsheimer’s theory that it was actually the West who brought this war about. However I would argue that this type of thinking is a red herring. It’s a bit like saying that Neville Chamberlain made Hitler invade Poland. It blinds you to the real nature of what you’re dealing with. I would argue that in order to better understand the real reasons for wars we need to have a better understanding of the evil men who start them. Ultimately this war has been caused because of the decision of one man; and so the question we need to be pondering is not: what are the circumstances that led to this war? But rather: what were Putin’s real motives in starting this war? Because whatever his real motives were, you can be sure that he won’t be telling us. 1. Do not be deceived. Do not believe anything that comes out of Putin’s lips. He is a proven liar. Whatever Putin says, don’t believe it. He has spent the last 30 years playing the international community for fools. If he’s not telling a downright lie then it’s a half-truth designed to deceive and trick. So, when Putin says he is not going to invade Ukraine, in truth his plans to invade are already underway. When he says his reasons for starting this war is NATO expansionism, or Mother Russia, or Nazis, or re-establishing historical Soviet borders, you can be absolutely certain he does not believe a word of it. It’s a smokescreen. 2. Putin is no patriot. He is a crook. Arguably he is the greatest crook in history, a corrupt KGB agent who is reputed to be the richest man in the world because he has spent years plundering his country’s enormous natural wealth through corrupt oligarchs. If Putin had cared about the glory of Mother Russia then he would never have fleeced it for his personal gain. Despite his rants about the glories of the old Soviet Empire, in truth he has never cared a hoot about it. That sort of flim-flam is put out for the consumption of his gung-ho generals, and for those Russians who remain patriotic even as atrocities are emerging from the battlefield. The culture Putin has created in Russia is based entirely on corruption; and that corruption comes from the top. If your own president is on the take then why shouldn’t you also be on the take? And if you are on the take then the status quo of corruption becomes a system worth being patriotic about. But patriotism is not what motivates Putin; his “patriotism” is simply more deceit. In truth, Putin has brought his country into the same sort of disgrace that Hitler brought on Germany. 3. Dictators only care about one person: themselves. In order to secure his position as dictator Putin has systematically dismantled the institutions of law in Russia. Political opponents can realistically expect to eventually meet a gruesome death, perhaps even by an exotic poison. Putin has destroyed the free press. He has turned the legal justice system into a puppet. He has removed any shred of genuine democracy by having himself made president (= dictator) for life. 4. Evil dictators are intrinsically insecure. They suspect that everyone around them is just as evil and ruthless as they are. They know full well from history that the fate that befalls most evil dictators is that they will be murdered by their own countrymen. Uppermost in their consciousness therefore is the need to do whatever is necessary to avoid the same fate. 5. Wars of aggression are also invariably started by evil dictators. Unlike conscientious leaders, evil dictators have no compunction in shedding other peoples’ blood; or in shedding their own people’s blood for that matter. Indeed, starting an external war of aggression has always been a staple favourite for insecure dictators, for the following three reasons: a) An external war mobilises the people behind a common patriotic cause, which provides a wonderful distraction for the grumbling masses - especially when faced with a growing anti-corruption movement under Alexei Navalny. In Putin’s case, his approval rating at home has soared since the start of the war. b) An external war provides a perfect opportunity to crack down on dissidents, bring in draconian wartime legislation, get rid of the free press and to remove political opponents en masse, whether by arrest or simply by making them leave the country. Putin has done all of these. c) A war provides dictators with an ideal opportunity to emasculate the one thing they really view as the greatest threat to their own personal safety: their own army. Being able to tie up your generals in an external war is a great strategy for deterring them from turning their attention inwards. Prior to Ukraine, Putin has already prosecuted brutal, unprovoked wars in Chechnya and Syria; it’s part of his playbook. 6. Another thing about evil dictators is that they are complete pricks. Please excuse the base language; polite language does not convey the thing with any justice. Everything is about them. Soviet Russia has a great tradition in this regard: for example, at the end of Stalin’s rallies everyone would stand and carry on clapping - sometimes literally for hours - because everyone was terrified to be the first person to stop clapping. In Putin’s case he wants everyone to know that he is somebody of significance, someone everyone should fear, a hard man, a big man; when in truth he’s a slimy criminal nobody who suffers with small “angry man” syndrome. I am not alone in holding this view of the causes of the Ukraine War. People who have had personal dealings with Putin such as Bill Browder and Mikhail Khordokovsky have expressed similar views elsewhere: that Putin’s principal goals were always his own political survival; and his own self-aggrandisement. This is because at heart he has proved himself to be a jackass who thinks like a jackass. Even worse, he is a KGB jackass; a veritable jackass of jackasses. This is actually what we are dealing with. The sooner the West realises this and stands up to him, the sooner the bloodshed will end.
It's unbelievable what a bunch of nonsense you've spewed. Step away from the mirror and stop projecting, because everything you wrote says more about you than it has to do with reality. It would not be better to try to look at the bigger picture, because simplifying things like this will not help you understand the world around you.
Putin just needs to be loved and respected like all human beings. He’s not evil but he sure ain’t perfect. After all, let the folks haven’t sinned throw the first nuke. Oops!!! Don’t tell the Indians. “Can’t we all just get along?” J
The Three to One rule is not an advantage in manpower, but an advantage in combat power. In 2003 the United States led coalition were outnumbered by the Iraqi Army more than three to one and the Iraqis were defending.
i think the biggest reason is putins whole imperialistic view, if you watch documenteries about his previous life, he was very known to talk about how russia was stupid for letting the berli wall fall, and he was butt hurt for the whole USSR falling apart
He never was imperialistic. People only started saying that after Crimea in 14. Putin has said anyone who doesn't miss the Soviet Union has no heart but anyone who wants to bring it back has no brain. Ukraine was always the red line ... Not just for Putin. All the way back to Gorbachev Russia said Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion
@@Phillip713 "Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion"?? Which country has attacked the countries around it? NATO has not attacked anyone. I see no fault in Ukraine defending itself against a known and proven danger which is Putin. Putin made a BIG mistake attacking all of Ukraine. He united NATO and proved to everyone in the world and especially Ukraine, that he can not be trusted and will not be satisfied until he takes over all of Ukraine and then other Ex Soviet Union countries. His rocket attacks on civilian targets and his troops mass murdering of civilians have hardened Ukraine's resolve that they must win the war. Until they do, they will never be safe from Russian aggression. Since, the U.S. is honoring its commitment to come to Ukraine's aid for their agreement to give up their nuclear weapons, Ukraine will fight until Russia is defeated on the battle field and they have reclaimed the territories Russia illegally annexed. This is almost November and things have certainly changed in Ukraine's favor. There will be no compromise based on Ukraine giving Russia any of their land.
@@ubroc towards Romania and Bulgaria? Great regress for Ukraine.. existential threat is nato with its rockets who invested billions into the coup in 2014
The so-called separatists of Donetsk were not Russian backed...they were Russian lead and in fact were regular Russian army, many of whom from Pskov were killed in Illyovaisk in the summer of 2014. Really, if you're going to do a video, learn the true facts.
I'm glad someone else remembers and recognizes this fact. It's like everyone forgot what actually happened in the region. I would be impressed by Putin's propaganda machine if it wasn't so disgusting. With it, he literally reframed history to justify more invasions. The sad part is - a lot of people bought it. Edit: Putin finally admitted he believes he is the second coming of Peter the Great. All other alleged pretexts for war were red herrings to hide his ambitious hegemony.
It's a fascinating analysis, but leaves way too much of history out of it. In 1996 Ukraine turned over to Russia all of their nuclear weapons in an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine. Why doesn't Russia return those nuclear weapons now? It's easy to attack a country after you purposely made it weak before.
In fact that "a lot has happened since" this was posted is a tribute to the clarity and openness of this professional analysis... But YES, a lot has happened that dramatically shifted options on the ground in Ukraine...jt
I'm not convinced that William Spaniel can read Putin's mind - especially on the assumption that Putin might be 'crazy' ... that's not convincing at all - not even scientific nor academic ... William Spaniel speaks like a quack !
@@mikewilson2332 He speaks like a knowledgable and logical person with well-reasoned opinions, unlike the troll with a no-content fake account to whom I am replying.
only 1 reason about this war: Russia invaded a sovereign country. Your reason for this war are Putin's unending story of propaganda of his own fear & greed. But now he is acting & invading like Hitler for the last 22 years as Russian dictator.
this whole thing reminds me of this king in his dying years who wanted too take a kingdom and won but they quickly gave it back because they did not see the value in keeping it.
There seems so be one concept you are either overlooking completely, or you've never heard it. I don't know which. In the Ukraine today, there is a substantial population that remembers life behind the Iron Curtain. Today, they've had a couple decades of being their own country. They know the "before" and "after" very well. They are also well aware that a substantial number of the separatists are Russian imports (infiltrators). So, the concept I speak of is nothing new. I don't think anyone really knows just how old it is, but a few hundred years ago, George Washington put it into words: BETTER TO DIE ON YOUR FEET THAN TO LIVE ON YOUR KNEES. Because of this, Ukraine will not stop until Russia is pushed back to their own boarders. And they have no choice but to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Anything to stop the Russians from getting supplies and reinforcements. Even nuclear bombs will not stop them. And when the war is over, I see little or no trade going on with Russia. Do not expect the bridge to survive. Russia is not to be trusted. At this point, if they negotiate any settlement that gives Russia any territory, they validate the invasion. Do not expect them to do that. Ukraine is also well aware that Putin has already expended more than half of the military capability. Weapons from Iran and North Korea validate that intelligence. They also know that Russia's first line of defense are prison inmates. The second line are the draftees. The third line are regulars. If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill. If the second line tries to retreat, the third line is ordered to shoot to kill. That accounts for all the bodies of Russian soldiers left behind. Putin is running out of everything to fight war with. An expression I virtually never use. It makes you sound like a paper butt hole.
" If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill." You realize all this overconfident bullshit is making your troops look pathetic in comparison?
Ukraine never was a country until the day Lenin dadice to. Where do u learn history, US? LOL Plus those nazi murders will be erased for good and I really hope to never heard frokm them again. Ukraine, for me as european, always was the most corrupted, violent, racist, and nazi country we knew.
Wow, this is close to the truth :) we indeed won't accept any peaceful negotiations on russia's terms, no chance. And russia won't accept negotiation on our terms, they would be too embarrassed by it: all this buzz, deaths, destruction and they still sucked? So we must fight for our legal land, European future, and peace. This is a matter of our identity, not just politics, war stop. russia tried to destroy us for too long in history. It needs to learn it cannot do anything they want for the sake of its imperialistic ambitions. They jerk off to the USSR period and "russia's greatness", but it puts in danger other nations surrounding them. They need to start respecting other's boundaries and solving their inner problems because there are hell of them.
"Irriationality" very, very often is part of miscalculation. Because Putin was able to circumvent the rules of the game so successfully in the post-Soviet Russia to acquire quasi-dictator status, like other personality cult achievers he believed he was also capable of circumventing any international "rule" that prevented him from reaching his irrational ideas in ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ and the reconstruction of the Cold War border sphere of Russian influence.
There is no plan to reconstruction any old Russian borders and if there would be, he wouldn't start with fucking Ukraine. Dude, stop consuming so much war propaganda. It's not good for your logical thinking abilities.
It is important to know that eastern part of Ukraine predominantly suffered from artificially inflicted by Moscow Hunger - Holodomor (in 1920, 1930s and later after the WWII). After more than 5 million (some researchers estimate 10 million) Ukrainians died Moscow forcibly moved people from russian territory to Eastern regions of Ukraine. Russian language was forced since 17-18th centuries in Ukrainian territory. Again the “division” of Ukraine by language is artificially orchestrated by Moscow. Additionally, I know may people in Kharkiv region who voted for Yushenko (so better to look into the numbers by the Oblast (not east or west, south or north). Yanukovich is a convict who was backed up from the beginning by Moscow. These important details give an actual overview and do not distort the reality. Yanukovich was from the beginning a Russian separatist.
I appreciate your analysis. I learned several things that I will take with me to other problems, thank you for posting. As this is my the second video analysis that I've seen from you that I've really enjoyed, I subscribed from this video as well. Thank you.
An additional friction point I think is how seriously Ukraine can take a Russian peace offer after Budapest and Minsk 1& 2. They would be highly entitled to not belief Russian offers.
@Jasper Percabeth You would need to be part of the negotiation team to know the truth is as the interpretation of the terms were taken differently. Russia negotiated in bad faith as it claims it is not a party to the dispute and therefore not bound by it's terms. With that view M 1 & 2 were not so broken but evaporated. It repudiated the whole concept of a negotiated settlement. In any case you are avoiding the Budapest agreement which was broken by Russia in 2014 very blatantly. How many times have you bought Brooklyn Bridge?
Both Minsk 1 and 2 were broken by Ukraine. German chancellor even admitted that it was never the intention to stick to those agreements but use it to buy time to arm and train Ukraine for the upcoming war. When Ukraine and Russia had a peace agreement again in Budapest Borris Johnson flew over to tell Zelenskyy to not go forward with it. Zelenskyy was also threatened to be hung from a tree by the far right if he did. Soon after that Zelenskyy made it illegal to make a peace treaty with Russia while Putin is in office.
I disagree with you on Putin's approval ratings being legitimate. Whilst I don't doubt they are high, accurate polling in Russia is almost impossible. The people there are intimidated and understand there are sometimes consequences for speaking against the government. A lot of people decline to participate in polling or give the safe answer even if they don't believe it to avoid trouble.
You're right .. and if most approve why does the regime need to repress public opinion and crush demonstrations with threats of up to 15 years in prison? I have a very close friend in Russia who keeps me informed of the reality of life in Russia for ordinary people .. not academic speculation, 😊
You did not address the refusal of Ukraine to renew the lease on the warm water port in Crimea. This port is of vital significance to Russia. I don't know what they expected from Russia but occupation of Crimea should have been on the list. I support Ukraine and hope they drive Russia.
Another potential cause as peter zeihan points out is future security concern. Right now the western front is long and insecure especially by a aging Russian population. By trying to close the gap now they can make future defense easier.
You are wrong if you think language divides Ukraine. I lived there 8 years and speak Russian and discovered that it is the dominent language in all of Ukraine except in Liviv. Nearly all Ukrainians a bilingual and have no problem with either language being spoken anywhere. However, the official language is Ukrainian.
Yeah, that's Russian propaganda narrative. "Russian speaking people were persecuted!11" If that doesn't work, they'll pull out "people who voted for Yanukovich supported separatism and Russia" which isn't true either Actually, it's sorta funny that you can see a lot of videos with Ukrainian Army Forces or Ukranian civilians cursing invaders using pure Russian Especially when some weapon goes BRRR! and invaders are fried
@@SteveBene Abolish? No. The National language is Ukrainian and is the default language used in education. However, there are special schools that teach in Russian just like there are specials schools that teach in English. There are even some schools near the border with Hungary that teach in Hungarian
@@SteveBene Ukraine didn't do it. But it's treated as a foreign language. So by default, the school won't have it. But you can find a school with Russian language if you want Also, Russian was taught in most of Crimean schools, since it was autonomy and had its own laws on the matter, if I'm not mistaken Didn't save region from Russian annexation, though More like, maybe even helped it Also I would add that for Russian speaking Ukrainians it's a nothingburger. People here speak both languages, just a matter of preferences/environment to what language use as a default in everyday life. Also, with 2022 invasion, even older generation of Russian speaking Ukrainians started to switch to Ukrainian voluntary. Because they don't want to be associated with orcs But yeah, as time goes there will be less and less people using Russian in every day life by default. And Russian invasion of 2022 will only fasten it. Btw I'm a Russian speaking Ukrainian myself with relatives and friends in Russia. Nothingburger for me too.
Ukraine do have 30% ppl speaking russia as mothertongue. When the war began, we in finland began to worry, might russia attack us as well. But it made me feel lighter that we only have 1% of population who speaks russia as their main language.
A language does not mean nationality. It takes a common culture, territory, history, and desire to share the same fate to create a nation. Else just imagine the size France, England and Spain would have !!!
Ukraine loses, Russia Wins. Zelensky running away to one of his mansions in different countries or is killed or imprisoned by his own people, War ends!
4:54 One of the reasons why Crimea was transferred to Ukraine was that it received water from Kahovka reservoir which was in Ukrainian SSR, and USSR government wanted both to be in one republic for optimization
Ukraine built the North-Crimean canal and irrigated Crimea, flooding huge areas of agriculturally rich populated UKRAINIAN areas AFTER Crimea was transferred to Ukraine. At that point Crimea was in horrible state: without any irrigation, very little electricity, with basically no agriculture after deportation of Crimean Tatars and replacing them with Russians who could not adjust to the climate. Crimea was a burden for Ukraine, that had to bring Crimea to a descent state with Ukrainian republican budget and losing territories to russia "in exchange". ruSSian propaganda ravings about Crimea being Khrushchev's present to Ukraine are just propaganda lies as Khrushchev had no power in this decision: this was stalin's plan, fulfilled after his death by his "comrades", whole signatures (and not Khruschev's) are on both documents legalizing the transfer.
@@natastudyN All true but going forward there will only be (I am afraid) a small Ukranian reservation, land locked, with borders controlled by Russia, like Israel controls Ghaza imports. Please read about founding of OdeSSa, and other cities. You can also read fiction, which though tells much about the country, White Guard by Bulgakov
@@paruhblgen4222 hahaha you know NOTHING about my country. And also cited the Ukrainophobe Bulgakov as an example, what a shame. Do you know who else wrote about Kyiv at that time? Pidmohylnyi and Domontovych. Did you read them? One day people will be imprisoned for public Ukrainophobia, it will become as disgusting as anti-Semitism. And the Russians are lying about some lands there, let them give us the ethnic eastern Slobozhanshchyna and the Kuban region. The territory of Ukraine was supposed to be 700,000+ km, but the Bolsheviks reduced it. By the way, YOU please read about well known since 14 century city Cacybei, which was RENAMED as OdeSa. And no one will conquer Ukraine, unskill Russians can only zerg-rush style, which will end with and of human meat, and even with the occupation there will be a guerrilla war for decades, weak jackals have no chance, Ukrainians have always fought more skillfully and bravely, we simply did not have enough international support. Now it is, so you can urinate on Putin's portrait. ^_^
@@natastudyN Plain lie. USSR build North-Crimean canal, we have documents what confirm one simple thing: Ukraine Respublic leaders admit what they can't build such canal alone, so USSR create huge company and people all around country gather together to build canal from 1961 to 1971. While Ukrainian SSR struggle to build canal alone in 1957-1961 until they give up and ask for help. North-Crimean canal have NOTHING with Ukraine after 1991, it will joint-efforts project
For the American Civil War, there are volumes of texts on it's socioeconomic, political and ideological roots. On a pop quiz just answer "because slavery." Similarly, the Russo-Ukrainian War with be analyzed for years, but the answer will be "because Putin."
Too bad I didn't find this video 2 year ago. Anyway, I hope this commentary will be read by the author. The biggest problem (as with most English videos and texts about russo-Ukrainian war) , one significant topic is lost in translation from russian to English - denazification. And it is because every English speaker assumes denazification comes from nazi, with the meaning similar hitler's nazi. This is wrong. When putin says denazification he means "no Ukrainian nation should exist". on 6:12 while talking about putin's essay titled "On the Historical Unity of russians and Ukrainians", author describes it like this "essay .. basically argued that russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians, are all a common people" direct translation will be "one nation", not "common people". They are no Ukrainians, they simply were misled to believe in this by the West. There are only russians and everyone who says otherwise is Ukrainian nationalist. Thus denazification. So, at 42:32 point 7 is one of the most valid points in this war, especially for me, Ukrainian. According to putin, I'm a nazi and must be denazified = killed or sent to prison to change my mind. thanks for the video
Erudite to the point where the unpacking popped all the bubbles in the bubblewrap. Commendable effort, sir, the best outline on the war I have seen recently. Well done!
To add to nabbar, Ruski Mir includes every nation with Slavs in it- Poland Czechia Slovakia at a minimum, But it is the Russians decide who is Slavic enough to include. De-Nazification obviously puts Germany in the firing line (notwithstanding that the Wagner group has more Nazis than the whole of Germany). Giving up part of Ukraine will produce "peace in our time" in the same manner as pressuring the Czechs to give up the Sudetenland caused peace in 1938. Any peace with Russia will require long term muscular enforcement.
A key issue is whether international boundaries can be redrawn and conquored territories incorporated into existing countries. In other words can country A do a land grab against coutnry B. Saddam Hussein's grab of Kuwait was popular with Iraqiis at first, but the larger world said no, to the disappearance of Kuwait. So any negotiations between Russia and Ukraine must reflect the reality that Russia directly taking Ukrainian territory will lead to the overthrow of the global order, and countries in Africa - or anywhere else for that matter - could legitimally argue hey if Russia can redraw borders that they don't like then so can we, we will unite based on historical tribal and ethnic lines and toss these stupid borders imposed by our former European masters.
I am sorry to inform you that your video is good and rationel I live next to Russia, and my limited experience is that the main difference is that Russia has a very long history of imperialisme. That they abuse other for own benefits. Similar like UK did for many years. In western part this is more or less history, in Russia this is alive. Or say it more simple, Russian is totally crazy in western ayes, in Russian ayes they think they are in title to abuse, rape kill and what ever to other people as soon as your range allow you to.
@@lentherytv1487 usa is not Imperial by nature. Usa react to what ever us consider a treat. Even after win wars, us leaves. Remember "Russia" is not "one" country. Its an impire there gouvern the erea poorly and with terror. If you look at India you see poor gouvern of the erea. Best experience we can see in Korea where North is gouvern with influence from China, and South of Korea with influence from Us. My statmen is that your not only wrong, but way off. 😃
This is a very refreshing analytical geo political/political/economical/psychological analysis of the conflict. I appreciate this upload and support such line of inquiry.
I didn't get past the part where you said the separatist regions there are no separate regions in Ukraine there is occupied territory temporarily occupied at that Russia is invading a foreign country to take its resources and use it people as slaves to benefit the rich elite around Moscow Moscow is an imperialist power the Russian Federation is an Empire that wishes to expand its territory into what it regards as vassal state of Ukraine soon it will expand to include Belarus Moldova this will happen if it succeeds in Ukraine if the west weakens and allows Ukraine to be taken over then they will be war in the Baltic
@@sharwama992 haha good luck cashing your Kremlin check.... and i invite you to reed Vladimir Vladimiravich Putins recent Tweet . in witch he said there are independent nations and vassall states... and whatever name they take they will always be colonies of the powerful... Moscow regards Ukraine as a colony it is angry that Russia has lost influence since the demise of the SSSR and is determined to reverse this indignity Ukraine is no less an indignity by its existence than mould over independent vaulting states and Poland after all Joseph Stalin allied himself with Hitler in order to destroy an independent Poland which he regarded as an insult to the Russian empire hopefully you will be able to read a few books after you learn to read 🤡 after that you'll be able to write another comment and not look like a fool
Of cause it's about resources and trying to rebuild the outdated Russian empire All this Nazi and NATO nonsense is just that nonsense and frankly k find it rather ironic he is calling other people Nazis when he himself ( Adolf Putin ) is a Nazi and if he had such a big problem with Nazis then why doesn't he take out the Nazi groups in Russia And Ukraine wanting to join EU or NATO was none of Putin's business it's Ukraines right Only real reason Adolf Putin doesn't want NATO in Ukraine is because that would stop him from land grabbing as he doesn't have the balls to take NATO on he would be finished quick
I bet the Ukrainians seriously regret giving up their nuclear weapons even if they kept a few nuclear weapons that would of been enough to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine and that is a lesson for other countries if you have nuclear weapons NEVER give them up.
Ringleader. Cops 👮♂️ on. Are. Stuff is so easy to use for north west coast club info from new year’s plan so you could get a few things that would be great if it all this summer bay
Great analysis, thank you. Key points I was missing, mainly broader context: 1. Geopolitical context. Ukrainian territory is not the final Russian goal; Russian leaders believe that in order to keep Russia defendable, they have to plug in all flanks, which include Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Moldavia, Romania and Bulgaria. In addition, Balkan, Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Finland shall be under strong Russian influence again. Thus, any negotiations over Ukraine do not make sense for Russians (neither for Ukrainians, that goes without saying). Russian population is rapidly shrinking, and now is the very last chance for a major territorial expansion. The retreat of 2014 is not an option this time for Russia. 2. Putin's (rising) domestic support. Russia is a brutal autocracy where declared support to the leader is easily enforced. Brainwashing, eliminating free press, jailing and/or murdering opposition, promoting obedience and loyalty with variety of incentives like public jobs, etc. 3. Western support. Russia was, is and will continue to be a looming risk for Western safety and economies. The only sustainable solution is its final military defeat. Only then the world can get back to a new normal. 4. Russia is an empire that has to allocate its military and security resources to keep subjugated nations and their territories by force. 5. Russia is running out of resources. Funds are estimated to last 18 months max, with no chance to borrow. Human military forces are exhausted and open mobilization in Russia is an extreme political risk. Russian economy is tanking. 6. Russia does not have any relevant allies. Ukraine is supported by basically all relevant countries (Yes, by China too, though indirectly through sharp decrease of vital Chinese export to Russia, in fear of secondary Western sanctions.) 7. Russian nukes are the main reason why Russia does not face more robust counter attack in Ukraine. In the same time, those nukes are the very reason why Russia has to be defeated as this country represents intolerable open threat and instability worldwide.
The eastern industrial and urban regions could not take really part in attacking Russia. That is why, even after Crimea invasion, Ukraine government could not officially initiate a war against Russia
William! You do an absolutely masterful job of analyzing this war. Congratulations! I remember a series put together after WW II when tv came about that my mother and I listened to weekly that we thoroughly enjoyed called “Victory at Sea”. It had wonderful music written to go with the narrative . I think it won some awards but as young teen I wasn’t into awards. I think your work is even better! Don’t even think yours needs music!
Thanks for your review. You didn' mention what has occupied other commentators - historical factors - the so called 'Ruski mir' - areas of Russian influence. What about legacy ? Does Putin see the west, NATO, democracy, encroachment as a threat to the historical system of autocracy in Russia, not just to himself. Your comments on rationality are dependent on individual perspective. What is rational to one is irrational to another. Also you are assuming a conclusion based on some sort of "balance" - it could be that both sides will continue to fight to their deaths. Perhaps you might include these points in any update.
Eric, I think you are right. Russian historical/magical narrative seems to play a big part in this. Putin may or may not believe it but he appears to place a lot of value upon it for his vision of stepping into the shoes of Peter the Great: E.g. the "it falls to us..." speech.
What would russia gain by having control over a significant portion of the world food supply? could they influence those countries via threats to food stability? Also, have you included the cost to Ukrainian people that subjugation, pacification and Russification. For example the forced deportation of 3/4 of a million Ukrainians to Russia. Or the neutralisation of pro Ukrainian sympathisers in occupied areas? Finally have you included the cost of Occupation and Russification for Russia? can you also explore the difference between Russian speaking and ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. obviously due to Russification during the soviet era many former soviet citizens speak russian, however they are still culturally Ukrainian.
I'd assume that those costs are included in the costs of the war to both sides and the desirability of the resulting settlement. Expensive occupation costs makes things more expensive to Russia, poor treatment of Ukrainians in occupied territories is a cost of Ukraine ceding those territories. William is just representing all of these costs in terms of territory because that's easy to visualise, but it's really just normalising all the costs and benefits in terms of territory. Regarding control over the food supply... you could probably roll that into cause 5 and call it "exportable commodities" rather than "energy" specifically. (It is interesting to note, though, that the effect on the food supply is essentially a cost of the war to everyone else.)
@@Draxynnic I agree. When the invasion first started I considered that it might be better to negotiate a peace with Putin. It would save lives and property. However, those notions were quickly dispelled as Putins forces mistreated civilians, maximised the damages to civilian homes, forcibly deported the Ukrainian population and arrested and murdered Ukrainian leaders in occupied areas. The occupation is like a Stalinist nightmare. Then I realised that this war has to be fought to the bitter end. We can't send the millions of displaced people back to their homes in occupied territory knowing that they will be mistreated. As Will said this war will end when Putin dies and the occupied areas are given back to the Ukrainian people in order to have sanctions lifted. My thoughts on the global food supply was Putin using food as a weapon to force the dropping of sanctions and the cooperation of food dependant countries (eg votes in the UN or China and India support as both are major importers of Russian/Ukraine foods). By simply increasing the price of Russia/Ukraine food Putin could destabilise whole continents.
I think russian Occupation would be much easier than many would expect. The eastern parts of Ukraine are mostly Russians and the Ukrainians would have already fled by now leaving only people who are Pro Russian. It's not like the US invading Iraq which has a vast ethnic diversity and the US occupation failed because they thought they would be greeted as liberators not as conquerors. In Ukraine it's much different, most of the population in the east speaks Russian, acts Russian and thinks of themselves as Russians.
@@covid6942 I believe some of those “culturally Russian” Ukrainians are having second thoughts, seeing their homes wrecked and their sons abducted by the Russian army …
@@covid6942 on face value it would seem to be the case. However putin's occupations historically have not been particularly pleasant for non russian citizens. I think you will find that the situation on the ground in the occupied areas is very different to the way it is portrait on Russian TV. Ukrainians are the Ethnic majority in the east and south of Ukraine. Many spoke Russian due to Russification during soviet times. However they are still Ukrainian. Before the invasion in 2014 there may have been a chance that southern and Eastern Ukrainians would have sided with Russia. Now there is no way. Even the small number of pro Russians who support unification with russia that were living in Ukraine are starting oppose russian occupation. Russian occupation from all reports of people who have escaped is not pleasant, theft, rape, murder, abduction, arrest, detention, forced deportation, shortages of food and medicines. Basically it is a normal soviet style occupation, subjugation, Russification program. The permanent occupation of Iraq was never part of the invasion of Iraq. There was never a plan to colonise Iraq. Putins plan involves annexing large areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. The coalition of close to half a million soldiers lost less than 200 dead during the invasion (the resistancewas relatively light). Russia has lost between 15,000 and 32,000 killed in action and the invasion is still on going. (Ukrainian opposition to putins invasion has been very strong). While during iraqs re-building faze of the occupation coalition forces suffered nearly 5,000 KIA (too many good men and women) over the next 8 years. Russian / Ukrainian losses in three months of this phase of the war are staggering. As are civilian casualties and property damage. We don't know the figures for Russian occupying forces in the rear areas of Ukraine though we do know they are taking casualties every day, due to a growing resistance movement.
Religious differences and ideological differences left out here. Putin is ex-KGB and neo-Soviet. He is also a Russian imperialist and a revanchist, who would like to surpass the achievements of all previous Tsars and Soviet leaders if he can, not only having troops as far as France and even Spain, but controlling Tsargrad, Istanbul and the Dardanelles and having a dominant influence in the water bodies bordering Russia, including the Artic, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans and the Baltic, Black, Azov, Caspian, Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean Seas. Economically, as the world's largest country with territory equivalent to the next 3 countries countries combined, Putin wants to eliminate Russian state debt and have a massive state surplus and sovereign wealth fund. The ultimate coup for Putin would be to marry, in a few years time, the Greek woman who will then be the legitimate Romanov claimant, and become Vladimir the Great, Tsar of all the Russias.
Thank you 👍 i relley hope i dindt have to thing of somthing like this my grandraher fouth in 2ww and i know how much damege it llives on a pepole souls 😭😭😭it is not worth no money,diamonts and gv 💗💗💗 love to all pepole show kids and destroy wepon all accros planet and use scrap 💗💗💗 love you all we all al bheter then this💋💋💋
I would like your analysis of Russia's cultural war on Ukraine - the argument Ukraine never existed as a people or as a nation and the need to erase the Ukrainian language history and culture. - that is what is the motivation for Russia implementing cultural genocide and how does this effect the Ukrainian response?
The Azov "Battalion" (normally 400 to 1000 soldiers) is actually much more like a Division. (8000 to 10 000 estimated) There are however may other Nazx organizations in Ukraine. Just like the old Nazx SS, the Azov Battalion soldiers are spread amongst other soldiers across Ukraine and many are still in combat. The first thing the Russians does when they capture Ukrainian soldiers is to take of their shirts and CHECK THEIR TATTOOS. I have seen several videos and pictures of different Nazx tattoos, including the Swastika, Hitler and slogans but the those that concern me most of all are the BAPHOMET TATTOOS. Just like the original hard-core Nazx these guys have a strong occult connection. 1 to 1 soldier ratio is a problem unless you have lost of artillery. Ukraine says that Russia has deployed 20 artillery pieces to every 1 of Ukraine.
I disagree with the military settlement in form of graphic representation like that. Wars and other objectives are more complicated than mathematical operations. For instance, ww2 agreement is settled at Yalta Conference which have probably major influence on the Russian political sphere on thinking on war like this. And geopolitical influence has many thoughts on major powers in the world.
It like the guy who made this video thought " How can I best do my part for the western prooeganda establishment media"? And voila! This came out. He must want a job at the New York Slimes one day.
Regarding the preemptive war section, Putin stated in his first speech on Feb 24th this was the case. Look at the actual military funding Ukraine had from 2014-2022, it goes from 3B USD in 2016 to 6B in 2021. The amount of ceasefire violations increased substantially in the 2 weeks before the invasion. I don't know if they had a bunch of equipment ready to go or when they would launch a proper offensive into the DPR/LPR but something fishy was certainly going on.
It's now November. I'm glad to say that this hasn't aged well at all. Your post assumed that Putin had a competent army and a legitimate claim on the independent country of Ukraine, but if Putin is given an inch today, he'll take a mile tomorrow. With the help of the US and Europe, Ukraine is currently dismantling the Russian war machine. Which isn't hard, as it turns out to be made mostly of rust. Slava Ukraini
Yes, I see a cause that is not clearly include in your list, but perhaps tangential. The insipient development of a democracy with its impact on human development start to generate an increasing gap between the borders that could lead to an uprising in the most left back side, Russia, the democracy was a incremental threat to Putin's regime and the closes it comes the greater.
Wrong. How about I bring all my friends to your front porch, armed with baseball bats? We “promise” we won’t rob you wink wink. We’ll just make ourselves at home on your porch and if you try to kick one of us out, we’ll all jump you. NATO in a nutshell.
jane stones no he hasn’t been, I mean first off he made himself dictator for life, he chose to rule Russia instead of serving as a real politician that steps down after term, or just become a doctor or something and living a normal life post USSR. And it was his choice to run Russia with an ultranationalist imperialist world view where he saw the fall of the USSR as the end of another Russia empire which he wanted to rebuild as he just believes they’re superior and thus have a right to impose their will on anyone they see fit. He chose to align himself against the West after Russia lost every real reason to do so as a nation itself. He doesn’t hold sole responsibility, some of his inner circle have various kinds and levels of power, but he’s most responsible.
@@ausendundeinenacht1 I am definitely not supporting Putin, but I don’t support Zelenskiy either who is equally in fault of this disaster. During the elections Zelenskiy has given the Ukrainian people a huge promise to stop the civil war in Donbas that had been going on since 2013-2014! But has he!?
Paraphrasing Michael Drozdovsky. Our main disagreement with the Europeans is on the agrarian issue: - they want to bury us in our land, and we don’t want them to walk on it.
Poorly thought video, you missed so many points in between. I usually like your videos a lot but you messed up this one royally. First of all you do not even seem to be aware of the fact that Russia was involved in the 2014 Donbas war. Second, even the majority of the Russian speaking population in the Donbas region do not want to have anything to do with Russia. All in all, you screwed the pooch on this one and got boggled in your own theoretical textbook stories.
Brilliant , but..... Brilliant work of analyzing and....playing with the people minds. But..... you , have omitted at least two other factors , that are important reasons (if not the really TRUE reasons ) for this war. The war of USA with CPR , and the Israel interests. I am particularly convinced , that the "most insignificant , almost invisible fact of Israel's role and existing interests , so completely unspoken of , are the most important. And the talks between Putin and Biden , and between Putin and representative of "Litte-Big Man Israel" right BEFORE the war - explain A LOT.
@@Zaprozhan Taking over Ukraine. By achieving this , creating very desired "new silk road" for China , and ofcourse benefiting from it. Simultaneously providing stabilizing factor between Russia and UE , by USA's "Precious , and Indispensable Isreael" , as "in between" - the zone of eternal peace - for Israel NEVER will provoke a war with Russia , and risk its own annihilation. That is Why the Jew , mr. Żelenski skillfully guides Ukrainians to liquidating their own state - with their own hands. As a matter of facf the Blackrock - the biggest and most powerfull investing company in the world , owned by Jew , mr. Fink is already OWNING almost entirety of Ukraine.
All the points said seem sensible to those who were born self and narrow minded. How can these reasons out way millions of people already swallowed by bullets? Please Mr. Putin think twice, don't touch God's eye.
Out of all those 12 points presented here, the one ,most importent, is not stated clearly: the Russian's demand for Ukraine for stay a neutral country, without any, even very distant dreams to join Nato, and continue to be an American servant.
The dude's "draw a line and meet in the middle" idea seems very short-sighted. Government may put a price on human life, but that's not how actual humans value each others lives. It's also not how the accepted theory of value in economics works at all: you do NOT consult the government and ask it what everything is worth, because there is No Such Thing as absolute static universal value. But it's short-sighted because it puts no value on the Quality of life under a liberal vs a totalitarian regime. Governments are pretty bad at valuing human freedom as well. Perhaps it all seemed "weird" because it's a little bit sick and twisted.
You're proposed outcomes are absurd. You simply don't understand Russia, nor do you understand Ukraine. It's not territory, it's people. Ukrainian people have lived for centuries on the land you want to give to Russia, who has no need of land or people. No agreement with Russia has ever been honored by Russia and that's not going to change.
I will give you a comment that was sent to me by a Ukrainian on 08/05/2023. On April 14, 2014, the current decree of the President of Ukraine Turchinov No. 405/2014 on the beginning of the so-called Anti-terrorist operation was published: "To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated April 13, 2014 "On urgent measures to overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine." Control over the implementation of the decree was entrusted to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Parubiy. By passing laws and resolutions, the Verkhovna Rada could not decide who the “terrorists” in Ukraine were, against whom the so-called anti-terrorist operation was. The position of “acting president”, which was held by Turchinov, who issued the decree, was illegal. The use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the population of their own country was unconstitutional. It was illegal to create so-called volunteers. They began to form from the Maidan hundreds, criminals and arm themselves on March 14, 2014. They had to shed their first blood in Donbas so that units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could overcome the psychological barrier in the fight against their fellow citizens. In March 2017, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on the day of the Ukrainian volunteer. Parubiy, who became secretary of the National Security and Defense Council after the Maidan, and then chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, noted when voting for the bill that “in the spring and summer of 2014, volunteer battalions saved the independence of Ukraine.” In early March 2014, the Kiev regime received the first U.S. military aid totaling about $23 million. The aid was clearly not intended to “overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” On March 17, 2014, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law approving the decree of Acting President of Ukraine Turchynov "On partial mobilization". Mobilization was carried out throughout the territory of Ukraine. On April 7, Acting President Turchinov announced the creation of an anti-crisis headquarters and that "anti-terrorist measures will be carried out against those who took up arms." The first "anti-terrorist" demonstration event took place in Kharkiv in April. In May - June, the full-scale use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and volunteer battalions began on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where referendums were held on May 11 and the DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics) were proclaimed. In fact, the so-called anti-terrorist operation of Kiev was deployed throughout Ukraine immediately after the coup in February, it was assisted by foreign instructors, "mobile groups of military instructors." About a hundred foreign advisers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to "serve" in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in 2008 (before 08.08.08 there were 123 of them in the Ministry of Defense of Georgia). The training grounds and training centers of Ukraine, in fact, were at the disposal of NATO instructors. During the so-called ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation), which was replaced in 2018 by the OOS (operation of the United Armed Forces of Ukraine), more than 13 thousand people were killed and about 30 thousand were injured. In 2016, according to the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, more than 1.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were registered. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, at the beginning of March 2017, 2.3 million Ukrainian citizens were in Russia, of which more than a million were refugees from Donbass.
Thank you for your effort, it is very interesting. No one could know better than Putin himself, this said your hypothesis may or may not be correct, but i am very thankful for demonstrating thought process with respect to the tragic war. For me, free content like this is of much values and i am thankful for your very much efforts.
The one common people theory used as an excuse to commit geocide? Perhaps the Ukrainian people didn't want to live under the iron fist of an oppressive murdering dictator appointed to a lifetime term in office. Living under a form of government that is not answerable to its citizens ultimately destroys the economy of that country. The result is always the same with the endgame being a population facing poverty generation after generation. One only needs to look at North Korea vs South Korea, East Germany vs West Germany and any oppressive state vs a democratic state. The economic situation in Russia is no different. The average Russian citizen has a difficult time paying for food, shelter, utilities and transportation. Once Ukraine was able to establish a government answerable to its citizens, their economy was on the rise while the Russian economy was in a state of decline. Russian manufactured products are comparatively substandard, shoddy and not particularly desired by the rest of the world. The Russian economy is based on selling off their mineral reserves as they had little else to offer that the rest of the world wants from them. It is only a matter of time until the Chinese economy will begin to collapse while Taiwan's economy will continue to grow. If China attacks and takes over Taiwan, Taiwan's economy will eventually collapse along with the Chinese economy. Oppressive dictatorships just don't seem to get it. Over time they destroy a country. david
To put your point in other words: "When you suffer at the hands of a Government, the same Miseries you expect in a Land without Government, you miseries are increased by the fact, You have become the means by which you suffer." -Thomas Paine (Common Sense) This is why Ukraine fights so ferociously!
@@thebarbarian3108 The T-600 Terminator is widely seen in Terminator: Salvation (2009). The type is infiltrator unit, it has torn of clothes, rubber skin and its seen with machinegun in the right hand and grenande laucher in the left hand. Its generaly slow and could be spoted from less than a mile because of its red glowing eyes.
The war between Russia and Ukraine doesn't matter at all. The only thing that makes it a concern is US involvement, if not for our involvement it wouldn't matter what outcome the war has as it would be incapable of impacting the rest of the world in any meaningful way.
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Ukraine interior minister is a Neo Nazis. One of the founders of the Azov Battalion. Do they have political power in Ukraine or not? You must be pro west. Why didn't you mentioned about the burning of Russian speakers in Odessa? The bombing in Donbas? Russia is winning and will forever occupy the liberated lands. So this video is bias
Oh, You forgot to mention that ukranian Nazis also burned 50 Rússian speaking ukranians Alive, and a dozen more atrocities during those years...
This is in fact Western/US propaganda pretending to be unbiased.
The one thing I have to say is 69 is considered old when the life expectancy in the country is only 73. Western countries have a much longer life expectancy with the USA being north of 78. I would expect Russia to use less efficient industry with almost non-existent environmental regulations. Higher pollution equals ever present toxic compounds. I wouldn't rule out neurological problems at that age in that case.
I enjoyed the video. It makes sense based on the information I am fed through my screens.
Dear George Orwell, those screens you said that were full of propaganda that we could not switch off. Well it's us that struggles to turn the screens off.
Good news though because in a few small countries they genuinely have structures in place to help ensure democracy and that the government works for the people. Unfortunately this isn't spreading to the large countries very well.
Do you have any advice?
Meh man i don't think that you know much about people who lives in post soviet states.Highly likely that if the war would last too long people would desire to end it.But that will not be a negotiations.Most likely people would demand a victory,so it means a mobilization of troops,not a 200 k troops but about a 5 million to overcome the Ukraine forces.Thats the true.And its the the worst outcome for Ukraine.Highly likely if this happens that Ukraine will lose independence.
You missed one of the biggest sources of friction: Ukraine has no reason to trust Russia. The way you use lines to demonstrate how it ought to be possible to reach negotiated settlements assumes that the parties trust that a negotiated settlement will be honored. Without trust, giving up land in exchange for nothing more than promises of peace just gives the other side a better starting position when it makes more demands in a few years, or starts a war if the weaker nation refuses to submit to the future demands. Ukraine has every reason to fear that if Russia is allowed to get away with it, Russia will keep taking bites out of Ukraine every few years until what is left of Ukraine is weak enough that Russia can conquer the entire nation. That makes it imperative to prevent Russia from winning or at least to make whatever Russia gains costly enough to strongly discourage future aggression.
An end to the war that resolves all open border disputes would allow Ukraine to join NATO
Can we include US State Department Efforts since 1950 to employ former Nazis Soldiers to perform espionage in Ukraine?
Can the idea that Victoria Nuland used political influences to create a seperatist Nation that was another Colony of the US to threaten Russia?
That seems to have some significant proof of the intention to find some return on investment in the Kyiv Government? The IMF handed over a $16 billion "Loan". that seemed to purchase allegiance.....
The US and British Military trained some of Ukraines Troops..
The US claims they have delivered over $5 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine since 2014.
We might begin to suspect that William Spaniel gas an agenda and his presentation is simply another one sided presentation of partial facts.....?
and if that is the case, then so be it. The Ukraine historically, has been used to INVADE Russia 5 times of note, and the Ukraine is the one with the distrust ? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.
This take on the conditions for peace assumes something known as REALISM, where every nation acts only in self benefit, but they will behave rationally, react to incentives, and are predictable.
Trust is irrelevant in this form of analysis, neither side needs to "Trust" each other nor do they need to Trust each other at all, and peace is achieved when both sides believe neither can realistically accomplish their objectives, nor realistically be able to do so in the near future.
This utilizes "Balance of power" theory, where a balance is created, where both sides have an opinion of where they see the line should be drawn. In the Information Convergence section, he mentions this. Those aren't arbitrarily drawn lines, but rather where both sides see the stalemate is and where further action by either side would no longer result in any gain for either side.
Evaluating trust is just too difficult, since its already assumed that no nation states "trust" each other in the first place. For example, NATO isn't held together by trust, but it is by the collective incentive of protecting each other against a threat. Each nation will respond to NATO since not doing so will see them kicked out, and they would lose all incentives that NATO provides.
I know its odd to have something that seems rather random to be approached empirically, but there's some very neat studies into this if you're interested. People have been compiling their thoughts on state-craft and peace for centuries
@@DaaronIrwing god, you people are naive.
Your point at 14:09 "No one else has to die... we can go back to normalcy in Europe". False. It would usher in a new era of accepting and rewarding military aggression. I couldn't imagine a more destabilising action.
Other European and Eurasian nations would try to settle old and new border disputes with wars and an incentivise nationalist movements like the one that built in Russia.
War would become the new normal in Europe and Eurasia.
The whole point of this video is to illustrate why "substantive explanations" like territory are insufficient to explain wars even when it seems like obviously it's a win-win to always negotiate based on balance of power so neither side needs to suffer the costs of going to war. The part you are quoting is the video's example of an outcome that appears rational but due to "bargaining frictions" it's actually impossible to achieve a rational settlement. It's presented from the Ukrainian POV but the exact same logic holds from the Russian POV - if you use some economic function to convert Russian war costs to territory, then it is rational for Russia to compromise on some territory gains to save themselves the equivalent amount in war costs.
The is known as the "bargaining model of war.". IR begins with the (obvious) truth that going to war is inefficient and irrational for both parties because they both incur costs and would have been better of negotiating a settlement that saves them those costs. Yet equally obviously, people obviously start and fight wars all the time, so we need to be able to explain why. This is known as the "inefficiency paradox of war." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bargaining_model_of_war
@@grymckr starting a war is inefficient/irrational, but going to war to preserve your sovereignty is often the only viable choice. If the choice is to negotiate away territory and/or sovereignty every time your neighbor attacks you eventually he's no longer your neighbor but your ruler.
It also falsely supposes that both parties are tied to a rules-based order. A negotiated settlement based on cost-benefit model doesn't work when one of the sides breaks international agreements at the drop of a fury ushanka hat.
I agree with James. You cannot annex territory by conquest, and you cannot allow dictators to annex territory by conquest; it's appeasement. Russia attacked a country, calling it a war between Ukraine and Russia is dishonest or just false. It's a invasion of conquest by Russia onto Ukraine. Russia needs to stop doing conquest and go back to Russia, Ukraine can only stop doing war when Russia Leaves.
@@lucasdigital
Your "logic" only appears as such to the casual onlooker or deluded HUMAN MIND that has been robbed of its capability - out of lack of humility and as a consequence arguing out of its mental prison cell which provides (false) security based on the "walls" of the mental prison cell, which limit the loose ends it has to consider in its logic while leaving out a MILLION/ BILLION factors based on million HUMAN MINDS acting based on the actions of a MILLION/ BILLION HUMAN MINDS (this comparison is ONLY exemplary in order to make it more "material/comprehensible") - this sort of behaviour is usually called ARROGANCE/ HUBRIS OF THE HUMAN MIND and is the very root of the events being presented and discussed....
THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN running amok seems a very fitting description to keep it in the same frame of thought as before...
One could expand above description beyond the referred example but I leave it there at the moment...
Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile
Sometimes compromise is impossible under geopolitical concerns
Which inch?
That inch that NATO shouldn't move to the East as it was promised to Gorbachov by that US man? 😉
@@angelaantonova743 1) is there any document where such promise is written or its just some old wives tale? 2) just think about that time: the cold war is over, ussr lost, it is crumbling, republics getting independence from ussr. Why would ever anyone from the side that won(USA) promise anything to the side that already lost (USSR) ? It makes no sense.
@@angelaantonova743 it wasn't about NATO, but about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania being afraid of Russia
Russia already invaded them few times
stop denying them freedom of choice
by now most of your neighboring countries hate you for a reason
@@angelaantonova743 NATO promised not to station troops in East Germany and somehow people try to mislead it to "NATO promised not a single inch to the east"
@@ZoragRingael No other country ever invaded and destroyed more innocent countries than USA, with & w/out the help of NATO, so the last person I wanna listen about unprovoked invasions is from an American.
When other countries beg you not to invade their country and they beg the whole world to step in and protect against the greatest terrorist on the planet earth, but terrorist America still invades kills and destroys and leaves the very very rich countries turned into ruins.
About 60% of American GDP comes from military. After invading an innocent country, terrorist charges 35% of the GDP from the innocent countries to protect themselves from (American made) terrorists which they never ever had before American invasion.
Have any of you fake compassionate guys ever stood with Afghanistan🇦🇫, Iraq🇮🇶, Yemen🇾🇪, Libya🇱🇾, Nicaragua🇳🇮, Kuwait🇰🇼, Korea🇰🇷, Panama🇵🇦, Cuba🇨🇺, Puerto Rico🇵🇷, Bosnia🇧🇦, Haiti🇭🇹, Dominican Republic🇩🇴, Columbia, Hawaii, Samoa🇼🇸, Argentina🇦🇷, Chile🇨🇱, Philippines🇵🇭, Guatemala🇬🇹, Lebanon🇱🇧, Congo🇨🇩, Vietnam🇻🇳, Laos🇱🇦, Ecuador🇪🇨, Brazil🇧🇷, Indonesia🇮🇩, Syria🇸🇾, Japan, Russia🇷🇺, Greece🇬🇷, Fiji🇫🇯, China🇨🇳, Cambodia🇰🇭, Oman🇴🇲, West Africa, Angola🇦🇴, Iran🇮🇷, El Salvador🇸🇻, Macedonia🇲🇰 Albania🇦🇱, Grenada🇬🇩, Honduras🇭🇳, Bolivia🇧🇴, Venezuela🇻🇪, Liberia🇱🇷, Yugoslavia, Marquesas Island, Croatia🇭🇷, Zaire, Sudan🇸🇩, Native American lands and many many other countries when America the terrorist was destroying them. Terrorist unprovokenly forced the whole world to use the dollar. The only 3 countries in this world that America didn't stick it's nose into are Andora, Bhutan & Liechtenstein.
USA is the deadliest aggressor & has the most blood on it's hands than any other country ever existed on the planet earth.
“Both candidates declared themselves Victor.” Very nice.
Spider-Man mirror meme
I guess both of them liked Viktor from Arcane
With regards to the number of troops needed to occupy a nation after defeating it, we can refer back to general Shinseke and his disagreement with Rumsfeld. After defeating Iraq, Rumsfeld asserted that most of the troops could return home. In contrast, Shinseki said it would require several times MORE troops to maintain a peace between rival religions and factions. Rumsfeld openly mocked Shinseki. But, Shinseki was proven right, and Rumsfeld (along with Wolfowitz and Cheney) were proven wrong.
Singular example which is only proven true in retrospect.
@@thomassenbart I cited a statement from a well respected general. I have also heard that same statement made by others who are career military, defense analysts, etc. For each war, it could admittedly take more or less. But coming from multiple sources that are in defense careers, I accept that it is a good generalization to set a baseline and then adjust from there.
Whatsaboutism 😂
Let's concentrate on real wars not a world superpower bullying third world countries because they wouldn't accept the dollar for their oil
@@gregparrott Your statement is dead on! Russia is NOT fighting in a Vacuum. It is still knee deep in the Mud of Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya, Amenia, and other Ex-USSR captive countries. If Russia's power drain is too much, they will no longer be afraid of kicking Russia Squatters out of their Countries.
It’s not a war Russia vs Ukrain, from the very beginning it is a wrong definition of the subject, it’s Russia vs NATO - primarily vs USA
Primarily vs. USA my ass
Nato has nothing to do with it. it is a war of extermination seeking to conquer only land, killing the existing population
@@peterni2234This aged badly
@@Aaronreacher you are right I did not know what I was running my mouth about
Defenders only ever have something to lose and the invaders set the stakes. There will not be an equilibrium favorable to the defender if offence as a response is out of the table or otherwise impossible.
Just discovered your channel. Extraordinary well thought out presentation, skillfully avoiding political pitfalls. Very informative, and analytical.
I am reminded of how President Nixon, on the one hand saved Israel from certain defeat, by overriding even his own State Department in massively arming Israel, to push back Egypt.
But then stoped short of allowing them a total victory, insisting their forces on the march did not take over all of the Sinai Peninsula.
He knew that if they kept it, there could never be a lasting peace.
Bismarck too, made such strategic concessions, always keeping an eye on the long game. Too bad we have no such leaders in power on the world stage today.
It is. This channel is my go-to place when I want to put this insane war into some kind of logical context. Here we are in 2024, just before US Elections, hoping this is resolved in 2025 in some kind of sensible way... because a fair way is not really an option, it seems.
Loss of sea corridor for Ukraine will be devastating. Zelensky understands this and is willing to take the painful route if Russia won't stop.
yeah the problem with Zelensky - aside from his gross corruption - is that his "painful route" involves getting a world war, likely a nuclear war, happening....
@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Hardly. Russian fuckers should just leave Ukraine and go home. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders and all the west should support it at it. For us it is the cheapest way possible to disarm Russia and bomb its military reserves into oblivion. Beside, most people in Ukraine do not want to suffer under russian occupation, with rape, theft, torture and mass murders being so common.
@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Does "corruption" include you Russian trolls lying for money? Or do you lie for free?
@@jackkessler9876 Give it a rest with your Neo McCarthyism BS.....nobody pays me or anyone that can see more than simplistic Good/Evil Black /White didactic optics about this war.
@@jackkessler9876 are you actually going to tell me that the Ukraine isnt the most corrupt country in Europe....30 billion dollars of US aid going missing and unaccounted for in Ukraine and you are actually going to say its not corrupt??
Before Euromaidan, Russia successfully used political and economic leverage to dissuade Ukraine from signing the E.U. deal. In the months prior to the Vilnius summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a trade war with Kyiv, blocking nearly all imports from Ukraine and cutting energy supplies to the country. In turn, this reduced Ukrainian exports by 25 percent and shrank the economy by 1.5 percent.
Ukraine Constitution 1991, disallows foreign military bases after 2017.
According to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's constitution forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017. Yanukovych breached the Ukraine Constitution 1991, Article 17.
After 2017, Ukraine's constitution is incompatible with foreign military bases hosting either NATO or CSTO.
In 2018, President Petro Poroshenko's constitution amendment allowed temporary foreign military bases.
*If Yanukovych didn't sign the military base rental extension, Russia would be kicked out of Crimea.*
@@kityacat5419 My point is against Putin's false narrative.
your first sentence should read
"Before Euromaiden, Russia successfully controlled Ukraine"
Putin's message was very clear. Russia or the west. You can't have both. Unfortunately for Putin, Ukraine didn't choose Russia.
Ukraine east shore Russia ab
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 ukraine east chose Russia but USA with puppet Ukrainian government was punishing them for it for 8 years
I think this video looks too much at this one conflict in isolation and does not expand military implications of the 2014 invasion to the current invasion. In 2014 they invaded and established a "new normal" in Crimea which ended in a ceasefire (sort of). Now after the failure of the grand price of the entire country, they seek to take Donbas and again settle on a ceasefire. Ukraine already knows it cannot settle on losing land because then that will be fortified beyond Ukraine's possibility to take later (so it is never a possible cost to Russia) and then again it will be forced to cede land again, having it fortified, and then cede more, having it fortified, etc.
Russia is well aware that they have the long term resources to repeat this conflict and Ukraine doesn't. Ukraine will have to spend time to rebuild their entire infrastructure and population while Russia can skip right ahead to rebuilding an army.
This entire war already started with the idea that Russia cannot lose land and always stood to gain land.
I would go as far back as the 2004 orange revolution, where Ukrainian protesters blocked the pro russian presidential candidate from declaring victory in a fraudulent election. This demonstrated Ukraine's determination to be self-governing and free of russian influence.
We could also look at the issues around the black sea fleet being based in Sevastopol (Crimea) and the lease agreement and payments for this base on Ukrainian soil.
You are correct. Putin will keep on launching new invasions until he controls the government of Ukraine and most of its territory. Ukraine can not agree to peace without a NATO guarantee to interven if Putin attacks again. Putin will never accept such a term. So the war will continue.
The sooner the west get serious about supporting Ukraine with the equipment it needs to defeat Putin the sooner this will be over.
True but one key thing to rebuttal your last paragraph. Russia absolutely has myriad resources and could easily outlast Ukraine in that aspect. However, does Russia have the economic resources to withstand widespread sanctions from the west? They’re turning themselves into the next North Korea; a pariah state. As I think we’re all aware, North Koreas economy is the equivalent of the steamy shit my dog took before bed tonight. Russia cannot stand an economic war of attrition, with sanctions of this magnitude. They don’t want attrition. They want exactly what you said in your first paragraph. They want UA to let go of the land. Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Btw, nice analysis my guy. 💪
@@levicastle8731 some interesting points for sure. However, if the war ends Russia will clamor (and I suspect would succeed) in lowering and removing sanctions from the west as their "reward" for the "not as big of a dick as you could've been" award. So their economy would slowly start up again, and I think that they will start to pivot their military imports towards China who is more aligned with Russia and less likely to sanction it.
This kind of change takes years, and cannot be done within this current conflict, it requires a period of licking their wounds after the war. They KNOW they can restart their war much later with these changes, and they would want to have the best starting platform in the third Ukraine conflict.
Lastly, Don't forget that Russia is largely a resource economy, and the people in power get their financial power from that sector. A lot of the sanctions hurt regular Russians, who the government doesn't really care about, just enough to have them enlist and to have them be able to be conscripted.
@@voodoodummie I think you are right but I think Crimea could become a buffer state
@@voodoodummie
The government doesn’t care about regular Russians? Interesting view, though somewhat naive.
12 reasons. Didn't know Putin had eleven doubles.
The most important thing missing in my opinion is that without first fighting a war, there is no guarantee for any settlement to be respected. New claims can soon after be made.
The cost in reputation and reliability is one russia isn't particularly sensitive to.
The attrition and cost of the this war greatly increase the cost of another one, or threatened one, shortly after a settlement for this is reached.
If ukraine knew that giving up x territory will actually be the end, it would have been much more likely to negotiate.
US and the west has been even worse at keeping to treaties -- you have to work hard to ignore the west's disregard of Minsk or the Baker agreements.
Bullshit, they knew if they only respected Minsk agreements there would be no war. Why did America invest 4 billion dollars into the coup in Ukraine in 2014?
Ukraine has to accept that Crimea and Donbas - two regions where russian speaking ukrainians are the majority - do not want to be part of the Ukraine anymore after their treatment by Kiev since 2014 - and nor will RUssia relinquish their control they fought to get over those 2 regions. Ukraine lost those 2 regions by its stupidity and brutality.
True, Russia is already seen as the international bad guy so you're right, they won't care about repercussions to their repitation.
I guess all we can do is take a page from the american playbook and help the russians enact a regime change. Let's be honest, Putin is an old man... He's likely to keel over any day now.
Could you do a video on RU's intelligence failures prior to the war, and how that may have affected their rational for the war? The amount of fired and jailed intelligence officers (including top officials) suggests this may be a very influential factor.
Thanks!
Good idea!!
Better one is add the ones made by CIA.
No, it's not necessary, it's enough ask it to Julian Assange.
Oh, hurry up before the US kill him!
I think Putin wouldn't attack if he knew it would fail this badly
But he can't retreat either now
Basically he cornered himself
@@ZoragRingael It's not the american Colonel Douglas Mcgregor's opinion.
@@angelaantonova743 yeap, but I'm sure it would be around these lines
btw some analysts saying Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, were pointing out that Putin wouldn't do such risky thing
I guess some people convinced Putin there was no risk
True, Putin apparently fired a bunch of Brass hats but remember the Russian Federation has not been at war like the US and NATO for three decades. They just didn't have the experience; plus, Russia doesn't tolerate failure like the West does. It fires dummies. Not like the United States who continues to promote, both in the civilian world as well as military, incompetence. Example: How many US officers and bureaucrats lost their job at the last fuckup Afghanistan? None.
20:40 interesting fact, those vertical smoke trails are from rockets that got fired before detonation so scientists could study the pressure wave during nuclear testing.
We need to ask why Russia thinks it going to be attacked?
As this is one of the key thoughts behind a preemptive strike?
One can think of the Ukrainian belief that Russia won't respect any future deal for very long(or that making such a deal emboldens Russia) as a Preventive motive on Ukraine's side. Which gives even less reason to believe the war will end soon
America england NATO EU and zelinsky started this war .
I find a lot of what you are stating is only what America and England want you to say if reading between the lines you have not stated the full truth that makes it something to be very wary of as half truths are not the truth.
like the west and ukraine did with minsk? its russia that should be skeptical about anything nato the usa, the eu says. it was all lies to buy time tp arm ukraine and move nato closer
Have you heard of Nether Chamberlain, he tried to make a deal with a guy named 🤦♂️Hitler. That was a good deal 👌 😌.
Spoken like a true American accountant. BUT:- American oil companies will jump at the chance to exploit gas fields in western Ukraine. Firstly the American government would want to reduce Russia's hold on Europe, specifically that on Germany. It would also welcome an increase in it's own. Secondly, the market (and price) for all fossil fuels will probably reduce in the future. Thirdly, while Ukraine will need fast cash to re-build the country, the buying companies will get gas at a bargain price.
Putin also wants control over the Black Sea and its seabed minerals. This began with the acquisition of the coastline of Georgia. Control of these minerals will replace his gas and oil income. The coast of Moldova could well be next.
Incidentally, the USSR general that took the surrender of the Nazis at STALINGRAD was Ukrainian. In that photo of the two USSR soldiers raising the flag over Berlin, one of them was Ukrainian. The photographer that took the picture was Ukrainian. Checkout 'The Night Witches' air squadron, over 50% of their pilots were Ukrainian. Were these heroes celebrated? I think not.
'Russian truth'.
How long did it take for the German's to breakthrough Ukrainian defenses in 1941 and when the finally entered Russian territory how did it end for them.
@@jamesmiller2735 in a few months or less and what happened to the Ukrainians is as much as you would expect nazis to do unless you are a collaborator. In fact one of those collaborators is memeroalized as a statue. They even made a national holiday in his name which is Stephen Bandara who facilitated the Holocaust in Ukraine. Now you understand where Putin's Nazi claim originate from.
@agapp11able that is bs...there always has been distinctions between the two..f off with your orc bs
In football the home team usually wins.
Well, you seem to have gotten one think spot on. "If Russia were worried about the long-term capacity of Ukraine, one would expect a more general campaign focused on destroying more Ukrainian infrastructure."
They've been trying. Ukraine has air defenses and a relatively large territory.
Also they do not want to build it again
Excellent podcast. Only thing ignore the role of hatred which can propel human endurance, atrocities and impact the lines of rationality. Also, underplays 'taking a break' (to resupply, rearm etc) as a mode which may well change the balance of power/perceived balance of power.
Cree vet V6
You are correct that Russian's hatred for Ukrainians has had an effect on both sides. I keep wondering how a population could care so little about human lives, whether their own or others. Is it only due to the effects of propaganda, or is there something more?
Don’t forget that after 2014, Ukraine did a modest build up but didn’t have as much international full support and weaponization as they see now. That could swing the balance back to their original borders if supplied and trained appropriately.
They got the weapons and support during 2015 Minsk "peace" negotiations as cover up to buy some time.
English bulls ! You sure won't rest till there is nothing left to be called Ukraine
Yeah weil, looks like the "west" is not as much into war, than Russia would like the world to believe..
Original border?! What original border ?! Ukraine îs a made-up country,from ukrainian,russian,polish,romanian,moldovan and hungarian territories..A Monster of Frankenstein,Ukraine..
Ukraine îs a Monster of Frankenstein.
2013 Ukraine discovers a huge oil field under Donbas.
2014 Russia muscles in to take it.
If it is about anything else, then a settlement would give the oil field to Ukraine.
In my humble opinion there will never be peace for as long Russia occupies territory of Ukraine. Ukraine can simply build a new dam blocking water to the Kherson and Crimea areas, the vast majority of the Ukrainians don't accept Russian occupation, and so on.
In my humble opinion there will be no peace as long as Russia exists. Time for a full invasion to show them how it's really done. They have been the headache of Europe for at least 300 years.
Water blocking = siege warfare against civilians, a war crime.
Wow! Did you find it all alone? 😀😇
And Russia will just push on to secure the water supply to Crimea.
Russia has the power to bully Ukraine to achieve this objective. And if Ukraine were to cut the water to Crimea it will now be looked at as a provocative action .
@@angelaantonova743 No, it is a well known definition. (Except when Russians are on the receiving end)
The Viktor joke was honestly hilarious
I have appreciated listening to your analysis of the causes of the Ukraine war, which I would classify as “traditional theory”. It provides a good picture of the historical/political issues which may have contributed to the start of the war.
The underlying assumption behind this type of analysis is that wars come about when a certain combination of events conspire together to make war inevitable, a bit like Mearsheimer’s theory that it was actually the West who brought this war about. However I would argue that this type of thinking is a red herring. It’s a bit like saying that Neville Chamberlain made Hitler invade Poland. It blinds you to the real nature of what you’re dealing with. I would argue that in order to better understand the real reasons for wars we need to have a better understanding of the evil men who start them.
Ultimately this war has been caused because of the decision of one man; and so the question we need to be pondering is not: what are the circumstances that led to this war? But rather: what were Putin’s real motives in starting this war? Because whatever his real motives were, you can be sure that he won’t be telling us.
1. Do not be deceived. Do not believe anything that comes out of Putin’s lips. He is a proven liar. Whatever Putin says, don’t believe it. He has spent the last 30 years playing the international community for fools. If he’s not telling a downright lie then it’s a half-truth designed to deceive and trick. So, when Putin says he is not going to invade Ukraine, in truth his plans to invade are already underway. When he says his reasons for starting this war is NATO expansionism, or Mother Russia, or Nazis, or re-establishing historical Soviet borders, you can be absolutely certain he does not believe a word of it. It’s a smokescreen.
2. Putin is no patriot. He is a crook. Arguably he is the greatest crook in history, a corrupt KGB agent who is reputed to be the richest man in the world because he has spent years plundering his country’s enormous natural wealth through corrupt oligarchs. If Putin had cared about the glory of Mother Russia then he would never have fleeced it for his personal gain. Despite his rants about the glories of the old Soviet Empire, in truth he has never cared a hoot about it. That sort of flim-flam is put out for the consumption of his gung-ho generals, and for those Russians who remain patriotic even as atrocities are emerging from the battlefield. The culture Putin has created in Russia is based entirely on corruption; and that corruption comes from the top. If your own president is on the take then why shouldn’t you also be on the take? And if you are on the take then the status quo of corruption becomes a system worth being patriotic about. But patriotism is not what motivates Putin; his “patriotism” is simply more deceit. In truth, Putin has brought his country into the same sort of disgrace that Hitler brought on Germany.
3. Dictators only care about one person: themselves. In order to secure his position as dictator Putin has systematically dismantled the institutions of law in Russia. Political opponents can realistically expect to eventually meet a gruesome death, perhaps even by an exotic poison. Putin has destroyed the free press. He has turned the legal justice system into a puppet. He has removed any shred of genuine democracy by having himself made president (= dictator) for life.
4. Evil dictators are intrinsically insecure. They suspect that everyone around them is just as evil and ruthless as they are. They know full well from history that the fate that befalls most evil dictators is that they will be murdered by their own countrymen. Uppermost in their consciousness therefore is the need to do whatever is necessary to avoid the same fate.
5. Wars of aggression are also invariably started by evil dictators. Unlike conscientious leaders, evil dictators have no compunction in shedding other peoples’ blood; or in shedding their own people’s blood for that matter. Indeed, starting an external war of aggression has always been a staple favourite for insecure dictators, for the following three reasons:
a) An external war mobilises the people behind a common patriotic cause, which provides a wonderful distraction for the grumbling masses - especially when faced with a growing anti-corruption movement under Alexei Navalny. In Putin’s case, his approval rating at home has soared since the start of the war.
b) An external war provides a perfect opportunity to crack down on dissidents, bring in draconian wartime legislation, get rid of the free press and to remove political opponents en masse, whether by arrest or simply by making them leave the country. Putin has done all of these.
c) A war provides dictators with an ideal opportunity to emasculate the one thing they really view as the greatest threat to their own personal safety: their own army. Being able to tie up your generals in an external war is a great strategy for deterring them from turning their attention inwards. Prior to Ukraine, Putin has already prosecuted brutal, unprovoked wars in Chechnya and Syria; it’s part of his playbook.
6. Another thing about evil dictators is that they are complete pricks. Please excuse the base language; polite language does not convey the thing with any justice. Everything is about them. Soviet Russia has a great tradition in this regard: for example, at the end of Stalin’s rallies everyone would stand and carry on clapping - sometimes literally for hours - because everyone was terrified to be the first person to stop clapping. In Putin’s case he wants everyone to know that he is somebody of significance, someone everyone should fear, a hard man, a big man; when in truth he’s a slimy criminal nobody who suffers with small “angry man” syndrome.
I am not alone in holding this view of the causes of the Ukraine War.
People who have had personal dealings with Putin such as Bill Browder and Mikhail Khordokovsky have expressed similar views elsewhere: that Putin’s principal goals were always his own political survival; and his own self-aggrandisement. This is because at heart he has proved himself to be a jackass who thinks like a jackass. Even worse, he is a KGB jackass; a veritable jackass of jackasses. This is actually what we are dealing with. The sooner the West realises this and stands up to him, the sooner the bloodshed will end.
It's unbelievable what a bunch of nonsense you've spewed. Step away from the mirror and stop projecting, because everything you wrote says more about you than it has to do with reality. It would not be better to try to look at the bigger picture, because simplifying things like this will not help you understand the world around you.
Putin just needs to be loved and respected like all human beings. He’s not evil but he sure ain’t perfect. After all, let the folks haven’t sinned throw the first nuke. Oops!!! Don’t tell the Indians. “Can’t we all just get along?” J
The Three to One rule is not an advantage in manpower, but an advantage in combat power. In 2003 the United States led coalition were outnumbered by the Iraqi Army more than three to one and the Iraqis were defending.
i think the biggest reason is putins whole imperialistic view, if you watch documenteries about his previous life, he was very known to talk about how russia was stupid for letting the berli wall fall, and he was butt hurt for the whole USSR falling apart
He never was imperialistic. People only started saying that after Crimea in 14. Putin has said anyone who doesn't miss the Soviet Union has no heart but anyone who wants to bring it back has no brain. Ukraine was always the red line ... Not just for Putin. All the way back to Gorbachev Russia said Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion
@@Phillip713 "Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion"?? Which country has attacked the countries around it? NATO has not attacked anyone. I see no fault in Ukraine defending itself against a known and proven danger which is Putin. Putin made a BIG mistake attacking all of Ukraine. He united NATO and proved to everyone in the world and especially Ukraine, that he can not be trusted and will not be satisfied until he takes over all of Ukraine and then other Ex Soviet Union countries. His rocket attacks on civilian targets and his troops mass murdering of civilians have hardened Ukraine's resolve that they must win the war. Until they do, they will never be safe from Russian aggression. Since, the U.S. is honoring its commitment to come to Ukraine's aid for their agreement to give up their nuclear weapons, Ukraine will fight until Russia is defeated on the battle field and they have reclaimed the territories Russia illegally annexed. This is almost November and things have certainly changed in Ukraine's favor. There will be no compromise based on Ukraine giving Russia any of their land.
@@Phillip713 When you are the president for life of an empire like Russia then imperialism is baked into the cake.
The reason is America putting an existential threat to Russia in Ukraine, russia is forced into the war
@@ubroc towards Romania and Bulgaria? Great regress for Ukraine.. existential threat is nato with its rockets who invested billions into the coup in 2014
The so-called separatists of Donetsk were not Russian backed...they were Russian lead and in fact were regular Russian army, many of whom from Pskov were killed in Illyovaisk in the summer of 2014. Really, if you're going to do a video, learn the true facts.
I'm glad someone else remembers and recognizes this fact. It's like everyone forgot what actually happened in the region. I would be impressed by Putin's propaganda machine if it wasn't so disgusting. With it, he literally reframed history to justify more invasions. The sad part is - a lot of people bought it.
Edit: Putin finally admitted he believes he is the second coming of Peter the Great. All other alleged pretexts for war were red herrings to hide his ambitious hegemony.
If your gonna leave a snarky comment, learn how to write proper English.
@@UnCuntained If you're going to refute OP's comment, you should learn how to construct a valid argument.
@@UnCuntained There's nothing wrong with his/her English and the comment us 100% accurate.
@@jamesstreet228 Oh “us” it really?
Fascinating analysis. A lot has happened since you posted this.
I look forward to what you're working on now - and your book.
It's a fascinating analysis, but leaves way too much of history out of it. In 1996 Ukraine turned over to Russia all of their nuclear weapons in an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine. Why doesn't Russia return those nuclear weapons now? It's easy to attack a country after you purposely made it weak before.
In fact that "a lot has happened since" this was posted is a tribute to the clarity and openness of this professional analysis... But YES, a lot has happened that dramatically shifted options on the ground in Ukraine...jt
I'm not convinced that William Spaniel can read Putin's mind - especially on the assumption that Putin might be 'crazy' ... that's not convincing at all - not even scientific nor academic ... William Spaniel speaks like a quack !
@@mikewilson2332 He speaks like a knowledgable and logical person with well-reasoned opinions, unlike the troll with a no-content fake account to whom I am replying.
only 1 reason about this war: Russia invaded a sovereign country. Your reason for this war are Putin's unending story of propaganda of his own fear & greed. But now he is acting & invading like Hitler for the last 22 years as Russian dictator.
Please do a new one with all the changes that have happened!
this whole thing reminds me of this king in his dying years who wanted too take a kingdom and won but they quickly gave it back because they did not see the value in keeping it.
what was it called?
Which king?
@@Snp2024 i cannot remember the name exactly but I'm trying too find him again its been a few months since I've seen them
@@agenteiegaming ok thanks
Pretty sure he's referring to King Henry VIII who took somewhere in France in his final years?
There seems so be one concept you are either overlooking completely, or you've never heard it. I don't know which.
In the Ukraine today, there is a substantial population that remembers life behind the Iron Curtain. Today, they've had a couple decades of being their own country. They know the "before" and "after" very well. They are also well aware that a substantial number of the separatists are Russian imports (infiltrators). So, the concept I speak of is nothing new. I don't think anyone really knows just how old it is, but a few hundred years ago, George Washington put it into words:
BETTER TO DIE ON YOUR FEET THAN TO LIVE ON YOUR KNEES.
Because of this, Ukraine will not stop until Russia is pushed back to their own boarders. And they have no choice but to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Anything to stop the Russians from getting supplies and reinforcements. Even nuclear bombs will not stop them. And when the war is over, I see little or no trade going on with Russia. Do not expect the bridge to survive. Russia is not to be trusted. At this point, if they negotiate any settlement that gives Russia any territory, they validate the invasion. Do not expect them to do that.
Ukraine is also well aware that Putin has already expended more than half of the military capability. Weapons from Iran and North Korea validate that intelligence. They also know that Russia's first line of defense are prison inmates. The second line are the draftees. The third line are regulars. If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill. If the second line tries to retreat, the third line is ordered to shoot to kill. That accounts for all the bodies of Russian soldiers left behind. Putin is running out of everything to fight war with.
An expression I virtually never use. It makes you sound like a paper butt hole.
.... you are exactly what you alluded to ...
" If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill."
You realize all this overconfident bullshit is making your troops look pathetic in comparison?
Ukraine never was a country until the day Lenin dadice to. Where do u learn history, US? LOL Plus those nazi murders will be erased for good and I really hope to never heard frokm them again. Ukraine, for me as european, always was the most corrupted, violent, racist, and nazi country we knew.
Wow, this is close to the truth :) we indeed won't accept any peaceful negotiations on russia's terms, no chance. And russia won't accept negotiation on our terms, they would be too embarrassed by it: all this buzz, deaths, destruction and they still sucked? So we must fight for our legal land, European future, and peace. This is a matter of our identity, not just politics, war stop. russia tried to destroy us for too long in history. It needs to learn it cannot do anything they want for the sake of its imperialistic ambitions. They jerk off to the USSR period and "russia's greatness", but it puts in danger other nations surrounding them. They need to start respecting other's boundaries and solving their inner problems because there are hell of them.
"Irriationality" very, very often is part of miscalculation. Because Putin was able to circumvent the rules of the game so successfully in the post-Soviet Russia to acquire quasi-dictator status, like other personality cult achievers he believed he was also capable of circumventing any international "rule" that prevented him from reaching his irrational ideas in ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ and the reconstruction of the Cold War border sphere of Russian influence.
There is no plan to reconstruction any old Russian borders and if there would be, he wouldn't start with fucking Ukraine. Dude, stop consuming so much war propaganda. It's not good for your logical thinking abilities.
It is important to know that eastern part of Ukraine predominantly suffered from artificially inflicted by Moscow Hunger - Holodomor (in 1920, 1930s and later after the WWII). After more than 5 million (some researchers estimate 10 million) Ukrainians died Moscow forcibly moved people from russian territory to Eastern regions of Ukraine. Russian language was forced since 17-18th centuries in Ukrainian territory. Again the “division” of Ukraine by language is artificially orchestrated by Moscow. Additionally, I know may people in Kharkiv region who voted for Yushenko (so better to look into the numbers by the Oblast (not east or west, south or north). Yanukovich is a convict who was backed up from the beginning by Moscow. These important details give an actual overview and do not distort the reality. Yanukovich was from the beginning a Russian separatist.
I appreciate your analysis. I learned several things that I will take with me to other problems, thank you for posting. As this is my the second video analysis that I've seen from you that I've really enjoyed, I subscribed from this video as well. Thank you.
An additional friction point I think is how seriously Ukraine can take a Russian peace offer after Budapest and Minsk 1& 2. They would be highly entitled to not belief Russian offers.
@Jasper Percabeth What?
@Jasper Percabeth how?
@Jasper Percabeth You kept avoiding answer the question.
@Jasper Percabeth You would need to be part of the negotiation team to know the truth is as the interpretation of the terms were taken differently. Russia negotiated in bad faith as it claims it is not a party to the dispute and therefore not bound by it's terms. With that view M 1 & 2 were not so broken but evaporated.
It repudiated the whole concept of a negotiated settlement.
In any case you are avoiding the Budapest agreement which was broken by Russia in 2014 very blatantly. How many times have you bought Brooklyn Bridge?
Both Minsk 1 and 2 were broken by Ukraine. German chancellor even admitted that it was never the intention to stick to those agreements but use it to buy time to arm and train Ukraine for the upcoming war. When Ukraine and Russia had a peace agreement again in Budapest Borris Johnson flew over to tell Zelenskyy to not go forward with it. Zelenskyy was also threatened to be hung from a tree by the far right if he did. Soon after that Zelenskyy made it illegal to make a peace treaty with Russia while Putin is in office.
I disagree with you on Putin's approval ratings being legitimate. Whilst I don't doubt they are high, accurate polling in Russia is almost impossible. The people there are intimidated and understand there are sometimes consequences for speaking against the government. A lot of people decline to participate in polling or give the safe answer even if they don't believe it to avoid trouble.
You're right .. and if most approve why does the regime need to repress public opinion and crush demonstrations with threats of up to 15 years in prison? I have a very close friend in Russia who keeps me informed of the reality of life in Russia for ordinary people .. not academic speculation, 😊
The war is improving his popularity. Leaders cement power in wartime. Also, if there is a new leader -- expect more hawkish.
If Leaders were more concerned about THE PEOPLE who inhabit land masses; it would not be a war of PRIDE & PREJUDICES.
You did not address the refusal of Ukraine to renew the lease on the warm water port in Crimea. This port is of vital significance to Russia. I don't know what they expected from Russia but occupation of Crimea should have been on the list. I support Ukraine and hope they drive Russia.
Another potential cause as peter zeihan points out is future security concern. Right now the western front is long and insecure especially by a aging Russian population. By trying to close the gap now they can make future defense easier.
You are wrong if you think language divides Ukraine. I lived there 8 years and speak Russian and discovered that it is the dominent language in all of Ukraine except in Liviv. Nearly all Ukrainians a bilingual and have no problem with either language being spoken anywhere. However, the official language is Ukrainian.
Yeah, that's Russian propaganda narrative. "Russian speaking people were persecuted!11"
If that doesn't work, they'll pull out "people who voted for Yanukovich supported separatism and Russia" which isn't true either
Actually, it's sorta funny that you can see a lot of videos with Ukrainian Army Forces or Ukranian civilians cursing invaders using pure Russian
Especially when some weapon goes BRRR! and invaders are fried
Didn't UKR abolish Russian language in all schools?
@@SteveBene Abolish? No. The National language is Ukrainian and is the default language used in education. However, there are special schools that teach in Russian just like there are specials schools that teach in English. There are even some schools near the border with Hungary that teach in Hungarian
@@cuddycabinrestorationproje9155 Please clairify. Do children of Russian descent generally have access to Russian language class?
@@SteveBene Ukraine didn't do it. But it's treated as a foreign language.
So by default, the school won't have it. But you can find a school with Russian language if you want
Also, Russian was taught in most of Crimean schools, since it was autonomy and had its own laws on the matter, if I'm not mistaken
Didn't save region from Russian annexation, though
More like, maybe even helped it
Also I would add that for Russian speaking Ukrainians it's a nothingburger. People here speak both languages, just a matter of preferences/environment to what language use as a default in everyday life.
Also, with 2022 invasion, even older generation of Russian speaking Ukrainians started to switch to Ukrainian voluntary.
Because they don't want to be associated with orcs
But yeah, as time goes there will be less and less people using Russian in every day life by default.
And Russian invasion of 2022 will only fasten it.
Btw I'm a Russian speaking Ukrainian myself with relatives and friends in Russia.
Nothingburger for me too.
Ukraine do have 30% ppl speaking russia as mothertongue.
When the war began, we in finland began to worry, might russia attack us as well. But it made me feel lighter that we only have 1% of population who speaks russia as their main language.
I've heard many have abandoned Russian language
@@bambina5604…. The Russian language was forced on Ukraine during the Soviet era….
A language does not mean nationality. It takes a common culture, territory, history, and desire to share the same fate to create a nation.
Else just imagine the size France, England and Spain would have !!!
the moment it said "kyiv" i knew it would push some kind of pro paganda
Thanks for the geads up king.
@Herr Goober hows invasion of yemen going, the invasion westerners like you not only ignored but supported the past 7 years
Great job explaining the on going conflict between Russia , and Ukraine. I like to know your opinion on a end to the war
Ukraine loses, Russia Wins. Zelensky running away to one of his mansions in different countries or is killed or imprisoned by his own people, War ends!
Only ONE cause and that's Putin
Brilliant work William
4:54 One of the reasons why Crimea was transferred to Ukraine was that it received water from Kahovka reservoir which was in Ukrainian SSR, and USSR government wanted both to be in one republic for optimization
Ukraine built the North-Crimean canal and irrigated Crimea, flooding huge areas of agriculturally rich populated UKRAINIAN areas AFTER Crimea was transferred to Ukraine. At that point Crimea was in horrible state: without any irrigation, very little electricity, with basically no agriculture after deportation of Crimean Tatars and replacing them with Russians who could not adjust to the climate. Crimea was a burden for Ukraine, that had to bring Crimea to a descent state with Ukrainian republican budget and losing territories to russia "in exchange". ruSSian propaganda ravings about Crimea being Khrushchev's present to Ukraine are just propaganda lies as Khrushchev had no power in this decision: this was stalin's plan, fulfilled after his death by his "comrades", whole signatures (and not Khruschev's) are on both documents legalizing the transfer.
@@natastudyN All true but going forward there will only be (I am afraid) a small Ukranian reservation, land locked, with borders controlled by Russia, like Israel controls Ghaza imports. Please read about founding of OdeSSa, and other cities. You can also read fiction, which though tells much about the country, White Guard by Bulgakov
@@paruhblgen4222 hahaha you know NOTHING about my country. And also cited the Ukrainophobe Bulgakov as an example, what a shame. Do you know who else wrote about Kyiv at that time? Pidmohylnyi and Domontovych. Did you read them?
One day people will be imprisoned for public Ukrainophobia, it will become as disgusting as anti-Semitism.
And the Russians are lying about some lands there, let them give us the ethnic eastern Slobozhanshchyna and the Kuban region.
The territory of Ukraine was supposed to be 700,000+ km, but the Bolsheviks reduced it.
By the way, YOU please read about well known since 14 century city Cacybei, which was RENAMED as OdeSa.
And no one will conquer Ukraine, unskill Russians can only zerg-rush style, which will end with and of human meat, and even with the occupation there will be a guerrilla war for decades, weak jackals have no chance, Ukrainians have always fought more skillfully and bravely, we simply did not have enough international support. Now it is, so you can urinate on Putin's portrait. ^_^
@@natastudyN Plain lie. USSR build North-Crimean canal, we have documents what confirm one simple thing: Ukraine Respublic leaders admit what they can't build such canal alone, so USSR create huge company and people all around country gather together to build canal from 1961 to 1971. While Ukrainian SSR struggle to build canal alone in 1957-1961 until they give up and ask for help. North-Crimean canal have NOTHING with Ukraine after 1991, it will joint-efforts project
For the American Civil War, there are volumes of texts on it's socioeconomic, political and ideological roots. On a pop quiz just answer "because slavery." Similarly, the Russo-Ukrainian War with be analyzed for years, but the answer will be "because Putin."
Too bad I didn't find this video 2 year ago. Anyway, I hope this commentary will be read by the author.
The biggest problem (as with most English videos and texts about russo-Ukrainian war) , one significant topic is lost in translation from russian to English - denazification.
And it is because every English speaker assumes denazification comes from nazi, with the meaning similar hitler's nazi. This is wrong. When putin says denazification he means "no Ukrainian nation should exist". on 6:12 while talking about putin's essay titled "On the Historical Unity of russians and Ukrainians", author describes it like this
"essay .. basically argued that russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians, are all a common people"
direct translation will be "one nation", not "common people". They are no Ukrainians, they simply were misled to believe in this by the West. There are only russians and everyone who says otherwise is Ukrainian nationalist. Thus denazification.
So, at 42:32 point 7 is one of the most valid points in this war, especially for me, Ukrainian. According to putin, I'm a nazi and must be denazified = killed or sent to prison to change my mind.
thanks for the video
Erudite to the point where the unpacking popped all the bubbles in the bubblewrap. Commendable effort, sir, the best outline on the war I have seen recently. Well done!
There's a single cause, Vladimir Putin.
There is one more: people of russia
Actually the single cause is Putins mom not swallowing
@@kityacat5419
Blink and all other things earthly and back
I have been in both countries for years and know the differences between them .
To add to nabbar, Ruski Mir includes every nation with Slavs in it- Poland Czechia Slovakia at a minimum, But it is the Russians decide who is Slavic enough to include. De-Nazification obviously puts Germany in the firing line (notwithstanding that the Wagner group has more Nazis than the whole of Germany).
Giving up part of Ukraine will produce "peace in our time" in the same manner as pressuring the Czechs to give up the Sudetenland caused peace in 1938.
Any peace with Russia will require long term muscular enforcement.
This is BS. It does not include anyone outside of ex-USSR.
@@andreimoutchkine5163Yeah Patrick took some hard drugs that day
A key issue is whether international boundaries can be redrawn and conquored territories incorporated into existing countries. In other words can country A do a land grab against coutnry B. Saddam Hussein's grab of Kuwait was popular with Iraqiis at first, but the larger world said no, to the disappearance of Kuwait. So any negotiations between Russia and Ukraine must reflect the reality that Russia directly taking Ukrainian territory will lead to the overthrow of the global order, and countries in Africa - or anywhere else for that matter - could legitimally argue hey if Russia can redraw borders that they don't like then so can we, we will unite based on historical tribal and ethnic lines and toss these stupid borders imposed by our former European masters.
How many African countries have nuclear war head to deter foreign interventions from US , China or Russia.
@@yam2050 Ghadaffi gave up his nuclear program, and as his son Sayid said "other countries will draw the obvious lesson, no nukes = regime change"
Energy and personal benefits. The oil and natural gas under the Donbas and Black Sea coupled with Putin's making money off Gazprom, etc.
What I love about this all, is that this helps prove the validity of some arguments and disprove the validity of others.
You do realize NATO and US set this precedence when they bomb belgrade and invade Serbia a Russian ally state then carved up Kosovo
I am sorry to inform you that your video is good and rationel
I live next to Russia, and my limited experience is that the main difference is that Russia has a very long history of imperialisme. That they abuse other for own benefits. Similar like UK did for many years. In western part this is more or less history, in Russia this is alive.
Or say it more simple, Russian is totally crazy in western ayes, in Russian ayes they think they are in title to abuse, rape kill and what ever to other people as soon as your range allow you to.
Correct all imperialist nation no matter what they've became, democracies, autocracies they have the Empire ticks in their DNA.
USA is number one!!!
@@lentherytv1487 usa is not Imperial by nature. Usa react to what ever us consider a treat. Even after win wars, us leaves. Remember "Russia" is not "one" country. Its an impire there gouvern the erea poorly and with terror. If you look at India you see poor gouvern of the erea.
Best experience we can see in Korea where North is gouvern with influence from China, and South of Korea with influence from Us.
My statmen is that your not only wrong, but way off. 😃
USA has attacked, invaded, bombed and sanctioned more countries that any other country over the last 50 years.
@@brandenburg2388 That's a fact... Its about time the world speaks the truth and stand up against US aggression.
This is a very refreshing analytical geo political/political/economical/psychological analysis of the conflict. I appreciate this upload and support such line of inquiry.
I didn't get past the part where you said the separatist regions there are no separate regions in Ukraine there is occupied territory temporarily occupied at that Russia is invading a foreign country to take its resources and use it people as slaves to benefit the rich elite around Moscow Moscow is an imperialist power the Russian Federation is an Empire that wishes to expand its territory into what it regards as vassal state of Ukraine soon it will expand to include Belarus Moldova this will happen if it succeeds in Ukraine if the west weakens and allows Ukraine to be taken over then they will be war in the Baltic
Stop watching too much cartoons 😂
@@sharwama992 haha good luck cashing your Kremlin check....
and i invite you to reed Vladimir Vladimiravich Putins recent Tweet .
in witch he said
there are independent nations and vassall states... and whatever name they take they will always be colonies of the powerful...
Moscow regards Ukraine as a colony it is angry that Russia has lost influence since the demise of the SSSR and is determined to reverse this indignity
Ukraine is no less an indignity by its existence than mould over independent vaulting states and Poland after all Joseph Stalin allied himself with Hitler in order to destroy an independent Poland which he regarded as an insult to the Russian empire
hopefully you will be able to read a few books after you learn to read 🤡
after that you'll be able to write another comment and not look like a fool
PUNCTUATION
Of cause it's about resources and trying to rebuild the outdated Russian empire
All this Nazi and NATO nonsense is just that nonsense and frankly k find it rather ironic he is calling other people Nazis when he himself ( Adolf Putin ) is a Nazi and if he had such a big problem with Nazis then why doesn't he take out the Nazi groups in Russia
And Ukraine wanting to join EU or NATO was none of Putin's business it's Ukraines right
Only real reason Adolf Putin doesn't want NATO in Ukraine is because that would stop him from land grabbing as he doesn't have the balls to take NATO on he would be finished quick
@@sharwama992 stop trying harass someone who knows more than you
I bet the Ukrainians seriously regret giving up their nuclear weapons even if they kept a few nuclear weapons that would of been enough to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine and that is a lesson for other countries if you have nuclear weapons NEVER give them up.
they never had launch codes,those were always in moscow. You can't launch nukes from texas if you don't have codes from washington .
Lol the first nuke they would fire would seal there fate of complete annihilation so probs lucky they don’t
@@joelburt Same could be said about Russia but one country is always going to be reluctant to go to war with a country that has nuclear weapons.
Came for the title, stayed for the lines on maps
Ringleader. Cops 👮♂️ on. Are. Stuff is so easy to use for north west coast club info from new year’s plan so you could get a few things that would be great if it all this summer bay
After what happened in the Canadian parliament 2 days ago, you can now take down your video now, William.
Great analysis, thank you.
Key points I was missing, mainly broader context:
1. Geopolitical context. Ukrainian territory is not the final Russian goal; Russian leaders believe that in order to keep Russia defendable, they have to plug in all flanks, which include Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Moldavia, Romania and Bulgaria. In addition, Balkan, Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Finland shall be under strong Russian influence again. Thus, any negotiations over Ukraine do not make sense for Russians (neither for Ukrainians, that goes without saying). Russian population is rapidly shrinking, and now is the very last chance for a major territorial expansion. The retreat of 2014 is not an option this time for Russia.
2. Putin's (rising) domestic support. Russia is a brutal autocracy where declared support to the leader is easily enforced. Brainwashing, eliminating free press, jailing and/or murdering opposition, promoting obedience and loyalty with variety of incentives like public jobs, etc.
3. Western support. Russia was, is and will continue to be a looming risk for Western safety and economies. The only sustainable solution is its final military defeat. Only then the world can get back to a new normal.
4. Russia is an empire that has to allocate its military and security resources to keep subjugated nations and their territories by force.
5. Russia is running out of resources. Funds are estimated to last 18 months max, with no chance to borrow. Human military forces are exhausted and open mobilization in Russia is an extreme political risk. Russian economy is tanking.
6. Russia does not have any relevant allies. Ukraine is supported by basically all relevant countries (Yes, by China too, though indirectly through sharp decrease of vital Chinese export to Russia, in fear of secondary Western sanctions.)
7. Russian nukes are the main reason why Russia does not face more robust counter attack in Ukraine. In the same time, those nukes are the very reason why Russia has to be defeated as this country represents intolerable open threat and instability worldwide.
You mixed up Russia with the USA.
Why no mention of EU and NATO. One sided view point at minimum
US incompetence is astounding
The eastern industrial and urban regions could not take really part in attacking Russia. That is why, even after Crimea invasion, Ukraine government could not officially initiate a war against Russia
William! You do an absolutely masterful job of analyzing this war. Congratulations!
I remember a series put together after WW II when tv came about that my mother and I listened to weekly that we thoroughly enjoyed called “Victory at Sea”. It had wonderful music written to go with the narrative . I think it won some awards but as young teen I wasn’t into awards. I think your work is even better! Don’t even think yours needs music!
How embarrassing. Russia's efforts to conceal their hand in all of this from the start fooled him and you.
Thanks for your review. You didn' mention what has occupied other commentators - historical factors - the so called 'Ruski mir' - areas of Russian influence. What about legacy ? Does Putin see the west, NATO, democracy, encroachment as a threat to the historical system of autocracy in Russia, not just to himself. Your comments on rationality are dependent on individual perspective. What is rational to one is irrational to another. Also you are assuming a conclusion based on some sort of "balance" - it could be that both sides will continue to fight to their deaths. Perhaps you might include these points in any update.
The real cause of this war is due to foolishness of a leader because of his personal ambition.
Eric, I think you are right. Russian historical/magical narrative seems to play a big part in this. Putin may or may not believe it but he appears to place a lot of value upon it for his vision of stepping into the shoes of Peter the Great: E.g. the "it falls to us..." speech.
Definitely worth mentioning
What would russia gain by having control over a significant portion of the world food supply? could they influence those countries via threats to food stability?
Also, have you included the cost to Ukrainian people that subjugation, pacification and Russification.
For example the forced deportation of 3/4 of a million Ukrainians to Russia.
Or the neutralisation of pro Ukrainian sympathisers in occupied areas?
Finally have you included the cost of Occupation and Russification for Russia?
can you also explore the difference between Russian speaking and ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. obviously due to Russification during the soviet era many former soviet citizens speak russian, however they are still culturally Ukrainian.
I'd assume that those costs are included in the costs of the war to both sides and the desirability of the resulting settlement. Expensive occupation costs makes things more expensive to Russia, poor treatment of Ukrainians in occupied territories is a cost of Ukraine ceding those territories. William is just representing all of these costs in terms of territory because that's easy to visualise, but it's really just normalising all the costs and benefits in terms of territory.
Regarding control over the food supply... you could probably roll that into cause 5 and call it "exportable commodities" rather than "energy" specifically. (It is interesting to note, though, that the effect on the food supply is essentially a cost of the war to everyone else.)
@@Draxynnic I agree. When the invasion first started I considered that it might be better to negotiate a peace with Putin. It would save lives and property. However, those notions were quickly dispelled as Putins forces mistreated civilians, maximised the damages to civilian homes, forcibly deported the Ukrainian population and arrested and murdered Ukrainian leaders in occupied areas. The occupation is like a Stalinist nightmare.
Then I realised that this war has to be fought to the bitter end. We can't send the millions of displaced people back to their homes in occupied territory knowing that they will be mistreated.
As Will said this war will end when Putin dies and the occupied areas are given back to the Ukrainian people in order to have sanctions lifted.
My thoughts on the global food supply was Putin using food as a weapon to force the dropping of sanctions and the cooperation of food dependant countries (eg votes in the UN or China and India support as both are major importers of Russian/Ukraine foods). By simply increasing the price of Russia/Ukraine food Putin could destabilise whole continents.
I think russian Occupation would be much easier than many would expect. The eastern parts of Ukraine are mostly Russians and the Ukrainians would have already fled by now leaving only people who are Pro Russian. It's not like the US invading Iraq which has a vast ethnic diversity and the US occupation failed because they thought they would be greeted as liberators not as conquerors. In Ukraine it's much different, most of the population in the east speaks Russian, acts Russian and thinks of themselves as Russians.
@@covid6942 I believe some of those “culturally Russian” Ukrainians are having second thoughts, seeing their homes wrecked and their sons abducted by the Russian army …
@@covid6942 on face value it would seem to be the case. However putin's occupations historically have not been particularly pleasant for non russian citizens.
I think you will find that the situation on the ground in the occupied areas is very different to the way it is portrait on Russian TV.
Ukrainians are the Ethnic majority in the east and south of Ukraine. Many spoke Russian due to Russification during soviet times. However they are still Ukrainian. Before the invasion in 2014 there may have been a chance that southern and Eastern Ukrainians would have sided with Russia. Now there is no way.
Even the small number of pro Russians who support unification with russia that were living in Ukraine are starting oppose russian occupation.
Russian occupation from all reports of people who have escaped is not pleasant, theft, rape, murder, abduction, arrest, detention, forced deportation, shortages of food and medicines. Basically it is a normal soviet style occupation, subjugation, Russification program.
The permanent occupation of Iraq was never part of the invasion of Iraq. There was never a plan to colonise Iraq. Putins plan involves annexing large areas of southern and eastern Ukraine.
The coalition of close to half a million soldiers lost less than 200 dead during the invasion (the resistancewas relatively light). Russia has lost between 15,000 and 32,000 killed in action and the invasion is still on going. (Ukrainian opposition to putins invasion has been very strong).
While during iraqs re-building faze of the occupation coalition forces suffered nearly 5,000 KIA (too many good men and women) over the next 8 years. Russian / Ukrainian losses in three months of this phase of the war are staggering. As are civilian casualties and property damage.
We don't know the figures for Russian occupying forces in the rear areas of Ukraine though we do know they are taking casualties every day, due to a growing resistance movement.
Religious differences and ideological differences left out here. Putin is ex-KGB and neo-Soviet. He is also a Russian imperialist and a revanchist, who would like to surpass the achievements of all previous Tsars and Soviet leaders if he can, not only having troops as far as France and even Spain, but controlling Tsargrad, Istanbul and the Dardanelles and having a dominant influence in the water bodies bordering Russia, including the Artic, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans and the Baltic, Black, Azov, Caspian, Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean Seas. Economically, as the world's largest country with territory equivalent to the next 3 countries countries combined, Putin wants to eliminate Russian state debt and have a massive state surplus and sovereign wealth fund. The ultimate coup for Putin would be to marry, in a few years time, the Greek woman who will then be the legitimate Romanov claimant, and become Vladimir the Great, Tsar of all the Russias.
" US invaded Iraq to stop Saddam to develop nuclear weapons " Seriously...you lost all your credibility when you stated it as a fact....
Thank you for this effort put in this analysis.
Thank you 👍 i relley hope i dindt have to thing of somthing like this my grandraher fouth in 2ww and i know how much damege it llives on a pepole souls 😭😭😭it is not worth no money,diamonts and gv
💗💗💗 love to all pepole show kids and destroy wepon all accros planet and use scrap 💗💗💗 love you all we all al bheter then this💋💋💋
Alredy replied.
Cool channel man. Best vid ive found on why the ukraine war is what it is. Keep up the good work!
I would like your analysis of Russia's cultural war on Ukraine - the argument Ukraine never existed as a people or as a nation and the need to erase the Ukrainian language history and culture. - that is what is the motivation for Russia implementing cultural genocide and how does this effect the Ukrainian response?
The Azov "Battalion" (normally 400 to 1000 soldiers) is actually much more like a Division. (8000 to 10 000 estimated)
There are however may other Nazx organizations in Ukraine.
Just like the old Nazx SS, the Azov Battalion soldiers are spread amongst other soldiers across Ukraine and many are still in combat.
The first thing the Russians does when they capture Ukrainian soldiers is to take of their shirts and CHECK THEIR TATTOOS.
I have seen several videos and pictures of different Nazx tattoos, including the Swastika, Hitler and slogans but the those that concern me most of all are the BAPHOMET TATTOOS. Just like the original hard-core Nazx these guys have a strong occult connection.
1 to 1 soldier ratio is a problem unless you have lost of artillery.
Ukraine says that Russia has deployed 20 artillery pieces to every 1 of Ukraine.
Poephol
bro estimated by who
They should begin by checking the tattoo's of their own soldiers and pmc's.
@@Sindrijo Absolutely. There are way more nazis in the Russian armed forces.. Besides, Azov isn't the same entity it was in 2014.
I disagree with the military settlement in form of graphic representation like that. Wars and other objectives are more complicated than mathematical operations. For instance, ww2 agreement is settled at Yalta Conference which have probably major influence on the Russian political sphere on thinking on war like this. And geopolitical influence has many thoughts on major powers in the world.
It like the guy who made this video thought " How can I best do my part for the western prooeganda establishment media"? And voila! This came out. He must want a job at the New York Slimes one day.
That's very unique Ideology ever.
An entire video on how Putin miscalculated?
Yes, please.
Definitely sill happen in the near future!
@@Gametheory101 lies!
Regarding the preemptive war section, Putin stated in his first speech on Feb 24th this was the case. Look at the actual military funding Ukraine had from 2014-2022, it goes from 3B USD in 2016 to 6B in 2021. The amount of ceasefire violations increased substantially in the 2 weeks before the invasion. I don't know if they had a bunch of equipment ready to go or when they would launch a proper offensive into the DPR/LPR but something fishy was certainly going on.
This is a good analysis of the causes of the war, especially Irredentism and Energy issues
It's now November. I'm glad to say that this hasn't aged well at all. Your post assumed that Putin had a competent army and a legitimate claim on the independent country of Ukraine, but if Putin is given an inch today, he'll take a mile tomorrow.
With the help of the US and Europe, Ukraine is currently dismantling the Russian war machine. Which isn't hard, as it turns out to be made mostly of rust.
Slava Ukraini
Yes, I see a cause that is not clearly include in your list, but perhaps tangential. The insipient development of a democracy with its impact on human development start to generate an increasing gap between the borders that could lead to an uprising in the most left back side, Russia, the democracy was a incremental threat to Putin's regime and the closes it comes the greater.
There's only one cause. It's Putin. Any rational Russian leader wouldn't do something so foolish.
Wrong. How about I bring all my friends to your front porch, armed with baseball bats? We “promise” we won’t rob you wink wink. We’ll just make ourselves at home on your porch and if you try to kick one of us out, we’ll all jump you. NATO in a nutshell.
He has been provoked, though it’s not an excuse, but still…
@@janestones323 i can t quite get why you continously seem to support Putin.
Who's pretty EVIL, really...
jane stones no he hasn’t been, I mean first off he made himself dictator for life, he chose to rule Russia instead of serving as a real politician that steps down after term, or just become a doctor or something and living a normal life post USSR. And it was his choice to run Russia with an ultranationalist imperialist world view where he saw the fall of the USSR as the end of another Russia empire which he wanted to rebuild as he just believes they’re superior and thus have a right to impose their will on anyone they see fit. He chose to align himself against the West after Russia lost every real reason to do so as a nation itself. He doesn’t hold sole responsibility, some of his inner circle have various kinds and levels of power, but he’s most responsible.
@@ausendundeinenacht1 I am definitely not supporting Putin, but I don’t support Zelenskiy either who is equally in fault of this disaster. During the elections Zelenskiy has given the Ukrainian people a huge promise to stop the civil war in Donbas that had been going on since 2013-2014! But has he!?
Paraphrasing Michael Drozdovsky.
Our main disagreement with the Europeans is on the agrarian issue:
- they want to bury us in our land, and we don’t want them to walk on it.
Poorly thought video, you missed so many points in between. I usually like your videos a lot but you messed up this one royally. First of all you do not even seem to be aware of the fact that Russia was involved in the 2014 Donbas war. Second, even the majority of the Russian speaking population in the Donbas region do not want to have anything to do with Russia.
All in all, you screwed the pooch on this one and got boggled in your own theoretical textbook stories.
No one in Ukraine wants Putin as leader.
Rebellion has mostly been little green me.
Brilliant , but..... Brilliant work of analyzing and....playing with the people minds. But..... you , have omitted at least two other factors , that are important reasons (if not the really TRUE reasons ) for this war. The war of USA with CPR , and the Israel interests. I am particularly convinced , that the "most insignificant , almost invisible fact of Israel's role and existing interests , so completely unspoken of , are the most important. And the talks between Putin and Biden , and between Putin and representative of "Litte-Big Man Israel" right BEFORE the war - explain A LOT.
And what are those interests?
@@Zaprozhan Taking over Ukraine. By achieving this , creating very desired "new silk road" for China , and ofcourse benefiting from it. Simultaneously providing stabilizing factor between Russia and UE , by USA's "Precious , and Indispensable Isreael" , as "in between" - the zone of eternal peace - for Israel NEVER will provoke a war with Russia , and risk its own annihilation. That is Why the Jew , mr. Żelenski skillfully guides Ukrainians to liquidating their own state - with their own hands.
As a matter of facf the Blackrock - the biggest and most powerfull investing company in the world , owned by Jew , mr. Fink is already OWNING almost entirety of Ukraine.
All the points said seem sensible to those who were born self and narrow minded. How can these reasons out way millions of people already swallowed by bullets? Please Mr. Putin think twice, don't touch God's eye.
There's only one reason of Putin war -- Arrogance .
then, if we follow your overly simplified logic, the only reason why the war hasn't ended -- Zelensky's arrogance
@@ivanschekoldin7315 Don't you had your deterrent arrogance if all your properties are damage people are fleeing and dying ?
@@ivanschekoldin7315 zelinski arrogance, he fighting for his country what you talking about.
@@jesussantiago8303 It’s not his country - his country is in Israel where his parents just purchased a huge mansion /read the news/
@@janestones323 🥱🥱
Out of all those 12 points presented here, the one ,most importent, is not stated clearly: the Russian's demand for Ukraine for stay a neutral country, without any, even very distant dreams to join Nato, and continue to be an American servant.
The dude's "draw a line and meet in the middle" idea seems very short-sighted. Government may put a price on human life, but that's not how actual humans value each others lives. It's also not how the accepted theory of value in economics works at all: you do NOT consult the government and ask it what everything is worth, because there is No Such Thing as absolute static universal value. But it's short-sighted because it puts no value on the Quality of life under a liberal vs a totalitarian regime. Governments are pretty bad at valuing human freedom as well. Perhaps it all seemed "weird" because it's a little bit sick and twisted.
You're proposed outcomes are absurd. You simply don't understand Russia, nor do you understand Ukraine. It's not territory, it's people. Ukrainian people have lived for centuries on the land you want to give to Russia, who has no need of land or people. No agreement with Russia has ever been honored by Russia and that's not going to change.
I will give you a comment that was sent to me by a Ukrainian on 08/05/2023.
On April 14, 2014, the current decree of the President of Ukraine Turchinov No. 405/2014 on the beginning of the so-called Anti-terrorist operation was published: "To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated April 13, 2014 "On urgent measures to overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine." Control over the implementation of the decree was entrusted to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Parubiy. By passing laws and resolutions, the Verkhovna Rada could not decide who the “terrorists” in Ukraine were, against whom the so-called anti-terrorist operation was. The position of “acting president”, which was held by Turchinov, who issued the decree, was illegal. The use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the population of their own country was unconstitutional. It was illegal to create so-called volunteers. They began to form from the Maidan hundreds, criminals and arm themselves on March 14, 2014. They had to shed their first blood in Donbas so that units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could overcome the psychological barrier in the fight against their fellow citizens. In March 2017, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on the day of the Ukrainian volunteer. Parubiy, who became secretary of the National Security and Defense Council after the Maidan, and then chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, noted when voting for the bill that “in the spring and summer of 2014, volunteer battalions saved the independence of Ukraine.” In early March 2014, the Kiev regime received the first U.S. military aid totaling about $23 million. The aid was clearly not intended to “overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” On March 17, 2014, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law approving the decree of Acting President of Ukraine Turchynov "On partial mobilization". Mobilization was carried out throughout the territory of Ukraine. On April 7, Acting President Turchinov announced the creation of an anti-crisis headquarters and that "anti-terrorist measures will be carried out against those who took up arms." The first "anti-terrorist" demonstration event took place in Kharkiv in April. In May - June, the full-scale use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and volunteer battalions began on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where referendums were held on May 11 and the DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics) were proclaimed. In fact, the so-called anti-terrorist operation of Kiev was deployed throughout Ukraine immediately after the coup in February, it was assisted by foreign instructors, "mobile groups of military instructors." About a hundred foreign advisers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to "serve" in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in 2008 (before 08.08.08 there were 123 of them in the Ministry of Defense of Georgia). The training grounds and training centers of Ukraine, in fact, were at the disposal of NATO instructors. During the so-called ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation), which was replaced in 2018 by the OOS (operation of the United Armed Forces of Ukraine), more than 13 thousand people were killed and about 30 thousand were injured. In 2016, according to the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, more than 1.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were registered. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, at the beginning of March 2017, 2.3 million Ukrainian citizens were in Russia, of which more than a million were refugees from Donbass.
Thank you for your effort, it is very interesting. No one could know better than Putin himself, this said your hypothesis may or may not be correct, but i am very thankful for demonstrating thought process with respect to the tragic war. For me, free content like this is of much values and i am thankful for your very much efforts.
This video aged like fine wine.
Putin's strategy got the EU and Nato in big trouble
The one common people theory used as an excuse to commit geocide? Perhaps the Ukrainian people didn't want to live under the iron fist of an oppressive murdering dictator appointed to a lifetime term in office. Living under a form of government that is not answerable to its citizens ultimately destroys the economy of that country. The result is always the same with the endgame being a population facing poverty generation after generation. One only needs to look at North Korea vs South Korea, East Germany vs West Germany and any oppressive state vs a democratic state. The economic situation in Russia is no different. The average Russian citizen has a difficult time paying for food, shelter, utilities and transportation.
Once Ukraine was able to establish a government answerable to its citizens, their economy was on the rise while the Russian economy was in a state of decline. Russian manufactured products are comparatively substandard, shoddy and not particularly desired by the rest of the world. The Russian economy is based on selling off their mineral reserves as they had little else to offer that the rest of the world wants from them.
It is only a matter of time until the Chinese economy will begin to collapse while Taiwan's economy will continue to grow. If China attacks and takes over Taiwan, Taiwan's economy will eventually collapse along with the Chinese economy. Oppressive dictatorships just don't seem to get it. Over time they destroy a country.
david
To put your point in other words:
"When you suffer at the hands of a Government, the same Miseries you expect in a Land without Government, you miseries are increased by the fact, You have become the means by which you suffer." -Thomas Paine (Common Sense)
This is why Ukraine fights so ferociously!
Prediction: 8xUS, 1xNato, 1xUN, 2xPutin
That bet didn't go well. I hope you didn't put too much on the line xD
@@john7787 You win some, you lose some. xD
Miscalculastion still seems to be the word of the day, 2 years later, and you have spent the last two years doing videos about it.
I absolutely love the way you break everything down. Even the most uneducated person can understand
Like, a golden retriever.
Funny he forgot to mention the Leaked victoria nuland calls , funny that .
@@parabot2 or the $5 billions invested in russophobia...
I make castles out of glass in Happy Wheels.
ok?
Whats happy wheels
@@thebarbarian3108 What is what is Happy Wheels?
@@quakeknight9680 what is what is what is happy wheels only you know the answer
@@thebarbarian3108 The T-600 Terminator is widely seen in Terminator: Salvation (2009). The type is infiltrator unit, it has torn of clothes, rubber skin and its seen with machinegun in the right hand and grenande laucher in the left hand. Its generaly slow and could be spoted from less than a mile because of its red glowing eyes.
The war between Russia and Ukraine doesn't matter at all.
The only thing that makes it a concern is US involvement, if not for our involvement it wouldn't matter what outcome the war has as it would be incapable of impacting the rest of the world in any meaningful way.