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The Dangers Of Baseball Card Prospecting
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- Опубліковано 31 лип 2024
- Prospecting has taken over baseball card collecting. Record breaking sales are happening daily for prospect Bowman Chrome autographs. The real question is will these prospects make the hall of fame and have long term value? Making the hall of fame is in extremely important part of long term value in baseball card collecting. In this video I break down the odds of making the HOF, the odds of a prospect panning out, pros and cons of prospecting, and more!
5:53 I meant to say this is when THE DRAFT was introduced to major league baseball. Sorry I misspoke there and did not catch it in editing.
We gotchu
1st Ballot Hall of Famer Albert Pujols was a 13th round draft pick and ripped the cover off the ball at every level, generational talent
Good point on not getting attached. I usually know when to sell, but don't always sell.😬
I’ve only been collecting cards again for about a year and learning baseball cards again was intimidating. At first I didn’t like Bowman or prospect cards. But now I love prospecting. I do it for the fun of it. If I ever make money on a prospect then that’s a bonus. After watching this video I went through my Prospect cards again and found I have a Jack Suwinski Bowman Chrome 1st. It’s not valuable but it was fun to recognize him.
Who???
Suwinski is a good prospect. If Pittsburgh wasn’t so cheap and were willing to pay him super two salary next year everyone would know who he is. The kid’s a real hitter.
Love Bowman Chrome. I just collect and don’t flip. However, new card prices have gotten out of hand. Just get blasters now…No more hobby boxes.
A prospect making the HOF is equivalent to winning the lottery. Making to the bigs is one thing, but the HOF? This is where the odds get interesting because a lot have to be accomplished.
I wouldn’t try prospecting for the HOF bump potential but more the window from
Minors to majors where most are affected by FOMO and over pay,imo.
The Dominguez crash has forced a lot of investors out of the hobby. He was hyped by Topps and the entire industry to sell cards. It was always b.s. His cards are still way overvalued. The biggest problem is: The market expects a Mike Trout type superstar every year in every Bowman product. As the video shows, that's unrealistic and ridiculous. Very nice video.
Damn a 20 year old is a bust already?
@@KryMoore Haha. He's not a bust in the sense that he'll never be a good MLB player. He's just not the next Trout and that's enough to crash the market for his cards. Expectations vs. Reality.
I bought my son a JD 1st Bowman PSA 10 and told him don't sell it! Hold it!🤬🤬🤬
@@hamm_bone_hobbies1302 I hope he becomes a star player for the Yankees. It'd be great for the fanbase and the hobby.
I think Trout and Pujols are the only 2 that exploded from the get go since year 2000
Larry Walker was amazing and totally underrated as a player. Used to follow his stats in the newspaper and see him leading in either hits or RBI’s almost every night.
You're not too critical. You are spot on. Imagine investing in (junk wax) era guys like Mo Vaughan, Kerry Wood, or (gasp) Kevin Maas. Those guys would command a ton of prospectors today. All terrible investments. The more you prospect...the more you're probably gonna lose.
One thing that sucks though is that the box prices have gotten so high, not because it's Bowman or Bowman Draft, etc. but because of the market that you can't even afford to buy and open the stuff unless you have lots of money, and that's bad for the hobby. It's only accessible to those with lots of money to spend. It's fun to open new stuff, but honestly the best investment is just keeping sealed product. Then, you are investing in all of the prospects. You aren't likely to pull that huge Auto 1st anyway, and if a player gets hurt, or doesn't succeed then you aren't going to lose thousands because the sealed product is still help up by a lot of other guys. It's not as fun as opening, but makes a hell of a lot more sense.
As an idiot Australian who only just got in to baseball and baseball cards, please never stop your content - I find it super super useful!
Great analysis! Absolutely love this video
lol don't stop, this is my jam, I'm a numbers guy & love statistics. 🤣
I bought one loose pack of 1st edition 2020 bowman and pulled a sky blue unnumbered Dominguez. Sold it at auction for 360 and since it was lockdown was helpful but also thought it was huge mistake...whew...
That was a very informative video. I like the way you break everything down. Prospecting has definitely become a lot tougher in recent years because of all the parallels and massive print runs. I'm a big fan of topps pro debut for prospects.
My PC is Garret Mitchell so hopefully he does well as I have a decent amount invested in him but even if he doesn't do as I hope Ive enjoyed picking up a few of his 1st and other autos and different cards
Another really great analysis and conversation scottie. I just opened some 2022 bowman. Didn't know 90% of the players so I will be stashing them for a couple years.
Always great content. The part that’s really hard to comprehend is print runs. On the one hand, wax is expensive to rip, and you should expect when you rip to make zero back. Heck breaking even is doing astounding well most of the time. On the other hand, the reason why the #/5 or #/500 cards are worth more than the equivalent card a few years ago is that the price of wax and print runs are so high. It’s not probable or reasonable to “pull” that card on your own. So you’re left with rip for $300 (box) with the hope of getting the guy you want or spending $500 and knowing you’re getting what you want. And even in this circumstance, your $500 purchase is probably depreciating as more wax is opened. While I do have my HOFers, I have a good amount of prospects that are on the cusp of hitting certain milestones to becoming HOFers or hitting eBay to hopefully recoup some costs / liquidity to reinvest in someone else.
The research value in this video is incredible!
They get hot n cold but for the prospects that don't make it, there are always a list of new names, so I try not to predict who will initially, and then after a year or two go through my prospects to see who is in majors and hot...
such a good video and on point 100%
You always provide really good analysis on baseball cards Scottie. Keep up the great work and keep prospecting!
Prospecting craziness is part of the reason so many now think Dominguez was just hype. Of course its absurd how much people spent on his cards. In the past, minor league players weren't considered a bust after a season and a half. As far as his tools, they're completely real, and we are starting to see results. I think he ends up debuting sometime in 2024, I believe he will be 20 at that point which would still have him debuting a year or two earlier than the average player.
Nice take Scottie
Being critical is ok, since the down side is more probable. I was into prospecting in the mid to late 80’s and even into the early 90’s. I could probably fill a 3,000 v CB punt box with all the guys who didn’t pan out, good players, ok players, and 1 year wonders. Shot gunning is not a good plan. If a player is good for 2-3 years, then I may go o back and pick up that earlier release and autos.
Great video. Love the in depth content and how insane it really is how much the hype sells for.
I have sooooooo many Corey Patterson rookies!
what i like to do is go on ebay and buy big lot of like 50 auto or more. buy them for anywhere from about 1.50$- 2.50$ a card. ill sell the players that dont have much potential and keep the ones that i like.
With how expensive the hobby has gotten I don't purchase much anymore. I still like the excitement of ripping packs every once in awhile. I typically just get a boom box.
I feel the same way. When I just want to rip up some packs, I’ll go pick up a box of junk wax era boxes. My personal favs are 87 topps and 89 donruss. I just like the looks of those cards
Scott, another great video. There was definitely a learning curve for me when I started prospecting…and I still don’t feel like I got it down at times. But like you, ripped a prospect out of 2022 Bowman and it is the card I have made the most money on so far in my collecting! It’s crazy when you hit!
Love this type of video. Nice work.
My garsh, Nolan Ryan was selected in the 12th round?! 😁
Man,if you are prospecting really young players,besides hoping for the Hall,you just need to hope for a hot time for that player,early career success,run of All-Stars,something that would suggest they are at least a superstar with a shot at the Hall of Fame.I can say if a top prospect keeps going back to AAA no matter they're age,forget about it,cut your losses!!!
I'd recommend diversifying. Yes, its a little cliche to say, but I really do mean it. If you have a 500$ budget, You should have at least 4 prospects with the money spent. You don't go all in, but if you do your research, hopefully one of those prospects pan out for you. Collect cards and players that you like, cause if you like it, so will someone else.
love this video. Analytics of collecting is fun.. glad you did the leg work.
I have a Mayer auto
You seem to be a Rockies fan… is Benny Montgomery a hold? I’ve got a Bowman Prospect Mojo Auto.
great vid!! great points! I think the biggest misconception about prospecting from guys that dont do it is they think you need to buy a 40 grand wander or 15 grand jrod orange auto or whatever. That shit is for a whole other group of people. Best part of prospecting is getting an auto for $20 and maybe he'll be as good as yordan alverez or jazz chrisolme and you can make 500-1000 on players who arent superstars you just got in early and they turned out to be decent players. Ya dont need 50 G's to prospect follow a few prospects weekly pick up there bowman chrome auto's for $50 and hopefully in a year or 2 and you can make a grand or keep it and pray for the hof ha
Great point. That’s what I do. Buy a bunch of $10-60 cards and sell them for $80-400
Couldn't agree more with ya. People got prospecting all mixed up. It's about the wax and then the SMALL and LOW RISK stuff. Take advantage of the fact that the minors are not super popular and find the diamonds in the rough.
But Play stupid games and spend thousands of dollars on a guy that hasn't even performed in Rk ball... Well enjoy the stupid prizes lol. Just don't buy the hype.
@@pnw58 exactly it gets a bad rep but you can have a lot of fun for cheap while really learning a ton about stats and putting your baseball knowledge to the test I cant think of a better part of the hobby then noticing something special about a young player in low A and watching them progress in there career to a big leauger. and like ya said bringing fandom to the minors, watching minor highlights and games looking for an 18yr old wit a swing like griffey
Thx you for the amazing info
Great video man. Appreciate the content
Great video and research on this one. Definitely learned some stuff.
I buy in on guys that have potential. To make $.100. When the move up. Dump it for $200. I only buy in on first bowman chrome. Great info!
Look at a guy like Ryan Braun. He was one of the best hitters in the game for 7 years. He isn’t even close to being a HOFer. Even without the PED issues.
Late to watching this, but great content.
I bought a base jasson Dominguez PSA 10 for 20 bucks on eBay... Card crashed.. he also missed an ez flyball on the prospects game
It's all about selling at call up. I do a ton of Bowman prospecting but it is almost always buying cheap guys with potential (in the $20 to $50 range) and selling when they have strong months or levels. The bowman Chrome market is a lot like fantasy, people over react to small sample sizes. I always take advantage of that and profit frequently. I think there is some misinformation on the whole prospecting for HOF thing as most everyone I know who prospects isn't trying to hold for the super long term. It is almost always short term and taking advantage of the market.
Look at it this way, if you invest in a 18 year old in A ball for $20, you have almost 3 years to make a return on him. Odds aren't bad that somewhere in those 3 years in the minors he will have a huge week or month and prices will rise. Sell. Rinse and repeat. This is how the bowman investing market seems to work.
It's crazy how there is so much value while in the minors but once they reach the major leagues,alot of them are like a common!
Thoughts on Jackson Chourio? Young kid, worth the investment?
Very interesting video, Scottie!
Can someone explain to me what are short prints and how to identify them? Are short prints more valuable than inserts, base or RC?
I prospect but buying boxes open and put up. I’d never pay that kind of money for someone that has never played one major league game. But I do buy more bowman product than others but I just put up all prospects and set on them and hope I get lucky.
Great video!!!
JROD FUTURE HOFer
Like most people I suspect, I'm not buying $1000+ cards in general. My prospecting is finding deals on Bowman # and auto cards. Hope some pan out long term, and others you can flip when they get a little hype.
What I like about Topps and Bowman is the retail is still reasonably priced and your pack odds are the same as the hobby. Besides the guaranteed auto, retail is often the better value.
Love the channel!!!
I like to take the approach of prospecting on guys like Bobby Witt Jr who make the league, but inevitably struggle at some point. I've picked up 2 of his blue Bowman Chrome auto PSA 10s for around $6K each. When the season started, these were doing between $10-15K...I heard some were purchased at the Vegas show for around $20K. So, while I am still paying a good amount of money for his flagship Bowman RC auto, at least I know he is penciled into a major league lineup for the next decade+. If you wait until the prospect makes the league, wait for they hype to die down, you can find good value there. Especially in year 2 or 3 of the guy's career. Great video. Good insight.
excellent video. Everything stated in this video I agree with.
How do you see sales that go back so far?
I don’t know much of anything about the newer Baseball but understand how hard it is for them to make the HOF, my Favorites player are Kenny Lofton & Manny Ramirez and i get why Manny may not make it but KLO jeez ya it’s hard to make it in
Food is better than cardboard
Awesome video man.
When I first starting collecting Dave Magadan was the hot prospect card. Everyone put his 1987 Topps "future stars" card in top loaders. lol
Rickey Henderson 4th round Wade Boggs 7th it is a crap shoot but a little less if you just collect all bowman chrome 1st lol
Scotty, love your comparison and point of Dominguez and Stanton. I call it hype inflation. And it's very real
the math i didn't know i needed!
Craig biggio was a first rounder, drafted 22nd overall
Yeah the prices for some of these prospect cards make no sense. Anyone paying $450k for a 19 year old kid with no Major League Baseball ABs is just crazy and obviously these people have money they don’t know what to do with. A lot of people who collect prospect cards is a way they can show how smart they think they are to others and themselves
I think your criticality was about right. It's not really my thing. Most people don't remember how many great players of the past completely loose their value/desire once they stop playing and people forget about them.
$474,000 for Dominguez might be the worst buy in the history of the hobby.
You start paying over 100 bucks on some of these prospects it's not a investment, it's straight up gambling.
Random comment just to help support the channel.
PRIZM now has HS baseball cards and I snagged an auto of some kid... Hold it and see... If that kid turns out to be a hall of famer, what that autograph will be worth in 30 years or whatever?
I thought I misheard you, who would pay that
I owned that exact Harvey! I bought it long after he fell, I bought it because I was a Met fan.
Don't get attached to your cards? (A hoarder cries)
Ryan Braun was arguably a top 4 hitter from 2007-2013. His cards are worth nothing.
In this down market, the only profits I have been making is on 1st bowman parallels and autos
There are many notable outliers, like fan favorites (Don Mattingly), generational physical sensations (Bo Jackson), and a whole pile of steroid era greats with large followings.
Doesn't change the overall numbers much still, but the long-term collectibility and massive profit doesn't always have to be obscene to make it worthwhile when it comes to prospects.
Totally agree though when it comes to overpaying for hype. The chances of guessing right are just astronomically weighed against you when you buy at the early peak.
When u look back to a tim Raines prospect card they made a lot of those compared to nowdays with a card that is /25 autographed or something you know there are only 25 ever available prolly less in great condition so nowdays prospect cards that make it to the hall will prolly hold a lot more value than a tim Raines card of a guy who shouldnt even be in the hall imo.
A good example is looking at how amazing Acuna, Soto, Vladdy Jr., Tatis Jr……all 4 are amazing and between weight issues, injury problems and TERRIBLE teams, I’m not sure if ANY of them end up making the HOF. And their stats say they’re generational talents. But the risks are so real that it’s terrifying to invest beyond the surface.
This is why I don't prospect, just of my team.. rather have PreModern and vintage as well. 🙏 More risky than the Casino IMO. To risky IMO too but I agree, fun to dabble with and make a dollar.
Beware….Anthony Rendon….
Prospecting is OK, but is better left to either fools to waste money, or those who can spend the time researching. I have neither, so I don't 'prospect'.
It doesn't help when a hobby box is only 1 auto and its overpriced!!!
Here’s your next HOFAMERS that are currently playing: Clayton Keyshaw, Max Sherzer, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Pujols, Mike Trout. These guys are 🔒 locks.
I'd add Greinke, Goldschmidt, Yadi too. Maybe not 1st ballot but they absolutely will be in HOF.
Add Ichiro, Beltre, Molina, Posey, Sabathia, Greinke, Votto and maybe Mauer.
Not all active though
Paul-Baseball all those guys you mentioned definitely have a shot. I don’t know about first ballot accept for Ichiro. The guys I mentioned are all first ballot HOF.
I like Bowman Chrome Auto rookie cards. I don't like flagship rookie cards. Picking Bowman Chrome is more challenging.
speculation? it's called money laundering
I made bank on Randy Arozarena
names a bunch of shit you could buy for $500K...all stuff that loses value. BRO! you can buy a house with that money
They should add the fan hall of fame and just get the fan stories of fanatic fans and what they did , ...to keep fan and game growth
They aren't always "on card" autos. I think it's important to the hobby because it helps drive the hobby and without these cards and their crazy prices, a lot of people wouldn't be buying anything. I agree with you that the way to go is more established players. These prices are ridiculous. Even $20,000 for a guy who hasn't done anything. Think about all the end high grade vintage RCs you could buy for what some of these sell for. The thing is, for a lot of people spending this money, they can afford it and a lot of times they don't even feel it in their pocket book. Funny thing is these guys spend a ton of money, only to flip it to the next guy who hopes to make a ton of money. My BIG question is, why is always about money and how much you can make. What ever happened to just collecting, building sets, or searching for your favorite player. I know people still do, but all you ever hear about is profit, making money, etc. It's sad and I don't think that's always good for the hobby.
You’re exactly right I got back into the hobby about 2 years ago I couldn’t believe that EVERYTHING is about the money 30-40 years ago it was all about the fun of collecting unfortunately that’s just not what the new collector is all about
not all, even guys who prospect for money typically do it so they can take that money and buy cards for there PC they always wanted, im a collector mostly but if i can collect great cards of my favorite players not using my check and buying n selling cards because its what i love to do, im gonna do both im gonna make money off the hobby for my own collection
@@mickey-eq5vw Obviously not all, and the example you gave is not what I am talking about. I do that too. But I set up at shows and because of the changes in taxes, I am technically a "dealer" now so I can write stuff off to help offset those taxes, but I would say that at the shows I have done in the last year, 80% of the people are these young flippers who are only trying to buy cheap to either grade or flip fast for a profit. And so many want to trade their junk for your good stuff instead of even buy. Everyone I get in a conversation with, it's always the same thing. Personally, I am just selling my extra stuff, stuff I have pulled and don't want, etc. to do exactly what you said. Hell, I often give a bunch away at shows to kids, etc. But everyone thinks they are a flipper these days, and the minority are collecting or just buying and selling their extra to buy what they really want.
Good video. IMO prospecting is a fools errand.
I think Bowman sets and products are really high risk and really high reward. I am in finance and these products remind me of speculative trading... high risk and high reward.
Basically your betting on the ability to know the unknown! :)
Jasson Dominguez is a 100% bust
Prospecting now is like buying penny stocks.. stupid prices for guys that are 3 to 4 years away at the earliest and then they have to produce at a high level. The prices are to justify the insane prices of wax now . To me this is what is imploding the hobby . Most people that jumped into the hobby the last 4 years were buying the ultra modern and are literally getting destroyed financially .
🤙🏻
Thank you for doing gods work! Prospecting is the dumbest thing to do. Collect who you like.
I’ve been in the hobby for 8 months now and I already know more than most collectors
Tatis was the worst
1/2 a Million for a Dominguez card? hahha whos the idiot? It's still CARDBOARD Folks... Cardboard. i don't care if it's a Mickey Mantle rookie.... get a roof over yer head instead, or buy one and rent it out for 1,800. a month and have passive income the rest of your life lol.... You'd have to be a Billionaire and not care about money at all to spend that on a player that has not played in the bigs for a full year... Even then, if you are a Billionaire and don't care. Give me the money instead, I'll do alot more good with it... hahahaha
glad you pointed out that its SPECULATION not INVESTING or COLLECTING people need to know the differences and yes its a lottery tix if you pull a rare para or superfrac of a prospect that actually works out see : mike trout