Mohnish Pabrai's Analysis of Meta Stock... An Easy Double?
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- Опубліковано 7 бер 2022
- It's no secret, Facebook (Meta) is going all in on metaverse development. And on the back of some ordinary Q4 earnings, it's also no secret that meta stock looks cheap. And Mohnish Pabrai thinks so too, calling it an "easy double" in a recent interview. Today we discuss exatly what Mohnish said when he sat down with Divya Narendra, and what we should look at when it comes to Meta stock.
The clips of Divya Narendra and Mohnish Pabrai that are featured in this video are from a presentation made for SumZero. To learn more about their investing community, check out their website! sumzero.com/
Full Interview: • Mohnish Pabrai Calls M...
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DISCLAIMER:
Neither New Money or Brandon van der Kolk are financial advisers. The information provided in this video is for general information only and should not be taken as professional advice. There are risks involved with stock market investing and consumers should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional. Consumers should always research companies individually and define a strategy before making decisions. Brandon van der Kolk and New Money are not liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided by this video.
Turns out easily doubling your money with Meta isnt going to be so easy.
😂😂😂cracked me up ngl
We all came back here xd
Well, im ok for easy 4x as well. :)
lmao
This guy said similar stuff about BaBa months ago 😂😂😂
This video aged well! Time to get the popcorn🍿
Man your video editing has seen a ten bagger over the last months. Someone is doing a fantastic job!
BABA was an easy -50% so I’d still take his opinion with a grain of salt
2-3 years from now come back and see if your comment was correct.
@@jordancostello150 right. The CCP will obliterate the business of Alibaba.
Baba is the most undervalued stock
Hard Times means hard times. 💪we'll see in the next 2 or 3 years (or more)if it's a good calculus (yes I tried to do my own homework 😅). And I still believe in both. Baba and meta. It doesn't mean you can't diversified in other stock that you didn't found on UA-cam.
@@jorisdelphin6232 I like how you came back after a few weeks lol. I’m still rooting for them to succeed, but I’m just saying people shouldn’t idolize his ideas. It’s all about timing your entry/exit, not just time in the investment.
It was $300 Now $88 !! It has to "triple" to return the original price.. I lost too with Meta and others.. Hope the best to you all..
after calling easy double, hes gone eversince
Everyone is a guru when market is rising when the reality strikes they go into hiding.
When it was at 200 i had predicted 85.
this is when I loaded!! thank god...I bought 40 @89....it will be a 10x from that price in 6-10
@@jasonhammons3826 congrats... perfect timing
Posting the link was a boss move bro!! You're one of my most watched channels!! Keep up the good work!!
Fundamentally stocks still don't make sense at their valuation. There is still fear of holding cash
Great video, thanks for making this!
thanks mate for uploading the link to the original video!
Shocked that i just read through this comment section and found a lot of useful discussion and tips. Is there a discord group for this channel?
Great video! Thank you for sharing!
Really good explanation and thanks for the full video.
more like this please. very high-quality content and video
Love this very pragmatic view on Meta. Thanks!
Really stepped up your production quality here mate! Keep hustling
Agree that meta seems crazy to go all in on vr. Having said that I was so wrong on the purchase of Instagram that going to have to give the benefit of the doubt.
I am sitting comfortable with my 280 avarage. I don't think there is much to do, see you guys in 5 years. The only thing representing a danger is policy changes regarding personal data, but they might already have a solution prepared to those.
Hopefully there is a policy change regarding personal data. Freedoms and avoiding technological dystopia are more of a priority for me than material wealth
How are you feeling now @Richard
It’s just different approach towards to innovation, you get entrepreneurs like Jeff having diversified new projects, and you have Mark goes all in.. Jeff went all in with his book startup, jobs went all in with MacBook… but from an value investor’s perspective, a diversified portfolio is a saver bet
People underestimate Meta's power in many developing countries especially in Asia - which is where most of their users are based. And these users are not fully monetized like North American users yet. Meta's advertising market alone will grow with these countries.
Asia is where they face the strongest headwind from regulation though, they're blocked in China and now also Russia...
As an engineer in Meta realty labs, I wish he talked about this a year ago (before I invested in BABA because of his advice). It is very obvious he has no clue how a hardware device works! We do not live in a world that a person in his/her garage can make a complicated hardware device (when was the last time a person make a novel cell phone, tablet, smart watch, car, .... in his garage?). These devices are very complicated, they consist of more than 1000 small sensors, subsystems, actuators... that should be integrated (and work in harmony).
Totally! 100%
I don’t think he meant that literally, it seemed he was getting at tech startup is most likely to profit the most from the meta verse but I agree it’s not something you can slap together haha
Who will be the target customers ?
A year ago FB wasn't selling at such a discount. Don't blame Pabrai for your own investment decisions. If you're following someone else's advice blindly and you didn't do your own research, you dug your own grave.
have you tried not listening to his advice?
Thank you for the link
Posting onto instagram or facebook from your ray-ban glasses seems like the next step to social networking. Then AR, then VR. I hope the metaverse isn’t going to go too far into the future like google glasses did.
Meta is interesting, don’t love their last quarterly earnings report. Shift to metaverse focus still very early
Thanks for the video! 🥰
Great video thanks
Unable to gong the link for the full video 😊
I was wondering if author or any subscribers have any thoughts about the price range of investing in Meta. I am planning to start executing below $175. Thanks
I think a lot of people missed that Mohnish said he sees a double at the CURRENT Interest rates. No way these rates stay.
It's all relative though, that applies for every stock.
Yeah but their margins are so nice I think they can still perform okay even if the Fed raises rates.
yea and he said 5-10% growth, which in itself isn't a given.
@@khafreahmose8768 if Facebook stops growing its value would need to fall 50-60% from the current price because who wants to hold a stock when you can't expect to sell it at a higher price? Facebook would immediately need to pay a high dividend and that would be the only reason to hold it. That is troublesome because they'll still need to use money on r & d, so the dividend or stock buybacks can't be unlimited high. i really don't like Facebooks risk reward ratio right now. there are other companies that have a potential for doubling where the risk is better
@@witoldschwenke9492 name em
Here’s the thing, if Monish really believed this, why hasn’t he bought any? He doesn’t care for easy doubles?
He's been too busy watching his Micron holding going absolutely nowhere except down... 😁
Your a boss for the link! I’ve been looking for the video for awhile now.
Hey there👋🏻
Just would like to ask when where the winner of the books was/will be released:)
Amazing stuff...thank you
Thank you very useful information😀
This is why a lot of super investors like Li Lu/Guy Spier never talk about individual companies. Mohnish does this a lot even with his own Turkish investments and this is really a disservice to their audience bc it introduces a bias to the people who value their word.
I love how it looked like an official quote "metaverse... lets do that"
Another solid take - thanks
already doubled 💪💪
😆 I guess Puts QUADRUPLED (at bear minimum) in the meanwhile.
Any thoughts with the updated scenario around meta?
Could you have a talk about tencent i think it would be a intresting subject as it is near pandemic lows and their fundamentals havent changed.
There are so many people I know who bought BABA based on Manishs advise at 275 , 225, 175 etc .... currently at 76.. moment of silence for all of them who lost so much money
lol
Yeah exactly, I'm one of those people. Monish is awesome, really eloquent and convincing. But BABA showed he can be very wrong.
Including me
Also BABA was the crown jewels so he bought it and then sold at a significant losses. I have some doubts about his views
Maybe you were unaware but most people speculate that it was for tax loss harvesting since he sold at the end of the year.
He may buy back in but he also says that even if he is bullish on Baba he believes that Tencent has even more potential
@@TheEnergizer94 I know, but does it seem reasonable to you to spend millions on alibaba (1/4 of his portfolio if I'm not wrong) and then realize tencent is better? It scares me that he has not also evaluated tencent before deciding where to invest in. Don't know you but sounds like a rookie to me.
Monesh said it was tax harvesting + he saw a better opportunity in tencent
@@ippolito3166 Yeap. H T F don't you look at Alibaba's biggest competitor before investing.
@@MlCKERS I don't know but he really did it! 😳
Meta is an interesting company doing interesting things (despite being lead by a villian). I think the stock will rebound, but I think we have more economic turmoil ahead of us before that happens.
Success rate for hardware oriented product is quite challenging. I think the chance of success is
Loving the channel bro!
I've been looking at FB the same way. Facebook will likely continue to be a strong company without meta for years to come, and we should base our intrinsic value assumptions on the idea that meta falls flat on its face. Meta working out is pure speculation and a value investor does not speculate. If it works out well then that's a pleasant surprise, but if you base intrinsic value on the success of meta then you're purely gambling.
How do you Analyse the ad business without that metaverse crap?
I think valuing the metaverse just as a 10 billion yearly loss is the other side of the coin which shouldn’t be done either. It will most likely generate some cash, even though it might won’t play out as Zuckerberg thinks. I would value it very conservative, but 0 seems very unrealistic
@@Richard-bk4zn Ok thank you 👍
Metaverse definitely is not going to turn out how Zuck thinks it will. These things never do. They are very early in the process. Inevitably they will need to adjust and pivot as they face the obstacles that will show up.
I am not sure 'FB will likely continue to be a strong company for years to come'. I personally don't know a single person who likes FB - it's a good tool when you need to get in touch with the grandparents. I rarely scroll my feed, to many commercials, recommendations, and dimwit connections thinking every dawn is for discussing politics or celebrities. They also constantly facing scrutiny over personal data. FB have critical mass going for them, but seems to be increasingly vulnerable to disruption.
Please enable subtitles. I'm from Brazil and sometimes I don't understand your accent. Great content though
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One has to look at Meta as a company which is trying to reinvent itself. The advertising revenue streams from Facebook, IG etc. will be steady or slowly declining for next few years but I don't see a huge upside as it is reaches saturation across the globe. So this is betting on the true monetising of AR/VR supported by advent of 5G all over the world. The so called Metaverse might just be a teaser but millions will use AR/VR in future with multitude of applications. Meta should benefit as it has a head start in this technology and has the money to fund the innovation.
Thanks for sharing!
I'm buying for sure!
In my opinion current socioeconomic landscape makes basic valuation principles irrelevant. It made sense to value US companies to see which ones will grow into corporations and which ones won't when US controlled most of the world trade. It's not the case anymore. Markets are now driven by sentiment and geopolitical shifts. There is a hard limit on growth that is palpable and meta is the first of many to actually feel that. They would lose 100 million users just this quarter cuz of ban in Russia. And I don't think that's the last time an all out ban happens to a corporation. There was no period in the history of stock market quite like this one and we have to adjust to that to save our money.
I disagree. There were always unrest, we just feel it more because of movements in social media. It's also a short term argument. All of these events will pass, and ultimately money will prevail. Russia cannot survive without western services and they will revolt their leader if they starve for too long. Value investing is about using intrinsic value to find the balance. In the end everything is biased to it's neutral state like water and it's changing tides. We're just experiencing some choppy waters but we've had worse in previous wars yet, balance and prosperity still prevailed. I'd argue that it's during world fears that you can gain the most wealth. Huge discounts on the biggest companies and still fears drive the conversation. Don't be the one regretting when the market becomes confident.
Great point and this proved to be true. People are getting fed up with them pushing bias political agendas and they’re leaving in droves. Myself included.
What’s your Twitter? I’d like to follow you and pick your brain some.
Great video! When are you gonna make a video on Michael burry's portfolio?
On March 8th meta was about 219.77 now on November 11 is at 113.40 from 89.16… I believe now is the time around 105
Mohnish the great bagholder. Making more bag holders. Looking for quantified ad impacts this quarter. PE is historic low. So yes 2-3 years, it will be higher. Buybacks also happening. IDFA big problem. Need more data on impact
lol so wrong as of Sept 2022
Now it is 120 :)
$104 today after hours. easy lost in half Mohnish meant to say in the video :)
where is the link???
so 4x in 2-3 year at $95? why not
Great video!
I love lookingback at these statement by so called experts... when this video aired the stock was at $195/share it now sits at $134/share or some 30% lower than when they suggested buying it and getting an easy double...just shows they know nothing!
Now it’s more than an easy double
Are you sure?
@@AS-pl3ce 🤡🤡🤡
$90 as of my writing 🤭
Nobody knows shit..they all are lucky and just stayed longer in the game with wealth generated from other means
Love this video!
Any thoughts on Apple stopping tracking, and android possibly following suit shortly? Surely that will make Meta less valuable to advertisers as a platform?
I also think this is huge, Google could take lots of advertising business from fb because you are voluntarily giving up information by typing into the search bar. Facebook are essentially stealing your data.
Industry is moving on to non-identifiable, context based advertising, where cookies are no longer as necessary as before. The problem as well is that advertisers also don’t really have alternatives, given the content forms they’re used to on FB and IG.
Stopping tracking? Haha you are laughably uneducated. They only stopped the idfa, not tracking!
should be a quadruple now lmao.
Whatever be the upside on Facebook, as an investor I'm no longer comfortable investing in companies where the User is the Product, and not the Customer. For Facebook, we, the users, are the product. And the Customer are ad companies.
In principle everyone agrees with you but in the end our wallet talks. We clearly prefer to give up our privacy to get free stuff and it's only rational that they capitalize on that. Unless you use absolutely no social media in the end you don't completely disagree with their business model.
Feel free to disagree it's really just the way I see it right now I'm open to being shown other points of view
@@TheEnergizer94 - I absolutely agree with you. And these are thresholds that we have to decide upon. For instance, I sold off my FB stocks last month after feeling guilty for having invested in it (thankfully that was at an avg price of 308). I also decided to quit FB 6 months of the year, and only use it selectively for certain beneficial. And I use an ad-blocker whenever logged in :) But your points are very legit.
So you have a UA-cam subscription?
@@bryanfreeland - I have an ad blocker. Do you?
@Prashant Parikh Ad blocker doesn't work for all ads on UA-cam they can serve them directly on their platform and circumvent ad blockers.
Wow very nice video...
Can someone tell me where to find the link to the whole interview? He says he has included the link “in the description below”…..and where is that?
Under “Description” hit “More” and you will see the URL for “Full Interview.” Hope this helps.
Best yt channel!
VR Sports tickets will be huge. FB could make Billions just skimming off the top of these tickets.
We need a follow up!
This is why you never listen to internet people/comment . From 88-220 🤣 literary a easy double in months . Everyone in these comment saying it wouldn't happen wrong asf 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Snitched a few hundreds at 90~100, wish I got more 🤣
Wolverinu really is the next best thing! From the likes of a highly anticipated P2E game on the horizon to Staking V2. Wolverinu will claw faces🚀
Or an easy halving
Thanks for this video.
You bet! 😵💫😵🥴 Oh wait, hope you didn't. 🤭
Informative on how the guy thinks and shares some good insight. Too bad I find most his publicised ideas don’t work out
Great video
didn't age so well. watching this 7 month later and eating popcorn and thinking all the ppl who jumped on Meta at the time and how long they would have to wait to double their money. another example where no so called "guru" should be listened. just do your own research.
great analyticts thanks
lol really understood they way you oversimplified!
Like the case, intresting!
Google is also going to bring tracking restrictions just like apple in 2-3 years. Plus many governments are now interested in data privacy bills.
thats why they are using AI now to serve ads
So basically Zuck has some big balls.
Interesting!
@9:50 "Is the housewife next door ... is she buying it" 😂😂😂😂
Spot on analysis
Yesterday Meta hit all time high with 21% jump..
thanks!
Nice vid 👍👍👍
Nice video 👌
I wish I could just sit in a room and listen to Mohnish, Warren and Charlie talk about their thought process behind buying into companies. I could listen to it for weeks straight. Instead I just have to listen to my loser friends talk about beating a level in a video game.
Was this interview pre apples data mining opt out. If google follows this (I doubt they will they do their own data mining) meta is gonna get sparked.
yeah, but need big stomach ... price might go down to $120 or lower before it can double from here
< TA is all well and good but I find it truly baffling that all major crypto youtubers just look at pure TA and completely ignore the bigger narrative of why BTC is pumping and why the future outlook might not be as rosy as it seems. It's kinda irresponsible to ignore the fact that each ETF launch so far has caused a major dump at the peaks of BTC. More emphasis should be put into day tradiing as it is less affected by the unpredictable nature of the market. I have made over 11 btc from day tradng with FADWA, insights and signals in less than 2 weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish...
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Thank you so much for this update. i will also want to increase my BTC with Fadwa signal
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11:27 "meta is a call option" that you sells
Good video
Thanks Brandon, appreciate your work!
im ready now to buy for my easy 8x! :-)
Earlier he said that Alibaba is very nice company to invest and then he sold all the stocks for loss harvesting. Now, he moved all of his money to Micron company and giving advise about Meta. Why did not he hold Alibaba or Why did not he buy Meta for his hedge fund? Use your own brain before you buy or sell because someone's advise could hurt you badly.
Nice video
Meta's Novi wallet will be bigger than its Metaverse bet. Meta is set to become the largest central bank in the world.
I love How he the talk
I think Vuzix has the lead over Meta in developing AR glasses
Bought more Tencent yesterday. Debating Paypal, FB, GOOG, AMZN as a new position. Just not sure which has the best trajectory. All seem like great buys.
Alphabet is the safest but PayPal has the most upside.
@@ibrahimciftci9599 I agree ☝️
@@ibrahimciftci9599 Exactly my dilima, lol. That Paypal upside is huge...but iffy. As I already own BABA and TCEHY, I feel like FB and AMZN might be redundant. Def looking most at PYPL and GOOGL
Did you acquire Tencent directly? Or did you purchase Prosus like Pabrai seems to prefer?
Alphabet and Amazon are good choices. I bet that Meta will fall slowly in the long-term
Just foucs on the long term, i have held meta for a while now!