Bank of Canada Warns of Global Pressures on Inflation
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
- #bankofcanada #canadianeconomy #canadainflation
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned about the changing world order and its impacts on Canadian inflation at a speech given to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday.
Links:
Speech by Governor Tiff Macklem / Discours du gouverneur Tiff Macklem:
• Speech by Governor Tif...
Media availability on September 10, 2024 / Point de presse le 10 septembre 2024:
• Media availability on ...
Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem warns of price shocks as trade is rewired:
www.theglobean...
Global trade in a changing world:
www.bankofcana...
Rewired, recast and redirected: Global trade and implications for Canada:
www.bankofcana...
Bank of Canada says trade disruptions could hinder inflation fight:
ca.finance.yah...
Canada to follow US lead in imposing 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles:
www.theguardia...
Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Says Deeper Rate Cuts Could Be Appropriate:
www.marketwatc...
Bank of Canada says trade disruptions could hinder inflation fight:
www.reuters.co...
Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy:
www.amazon.ca/...
EUROPE AND GLOBALIZATION, 1870-1914:
sciencespo.hal...
The world today looks ominously like it did before World War I:
think-beyondth...
Populism as a Backlash against Globalization - Historical Perspectives:
www.cirsd.org/...
A ‘multipolar’ world defies the ‘rules-based’ order:
www.ft.com/con...
Canada Imports from China:
tradingeconomi...
Confronting Fragmentation Where It Matters Most: Trade, Debt, and Climate Action:
www.imf.org/en...
Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 6.6% in challenging market for job seekers:
financialpost....
Bank of Canada expected to cut interest rate today and signal more to come:
financialpost....
Bank of Canada could cut rates to 2.5% by next year, say economists:
financialpost....
Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 4.25%, citing cooling inflation:
www.cbc.ca/new...
Why More Bank of Canada Rate Cuts Are on Their Way:
www.morningsta...
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Big Corporations finally remembering that moving jobs away from your customer base creates unemployment and unemployed customers don't buy!
Hi bigsid,
Thanks as always for the comment :) The theory doesn't always work so well in practice does it?
Well what about AI, even if the people in another country gets jobs companies like apple Microsoft benefit else who is going to buy those in third world poor countries ? Once AI does those service sector jobs like it support who will have money to buy anything ???
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario The theory 'Doing Evil works in the short term' is doing fine. What has changed is we have now suffered several decades of government short term economic thinking, many predatory internationalist companies not so much.
Have it your way: Bring down interest rates and blame the world for the inflation which ensues.
lol why stop now?
Burger king ?
The reason why I like Mark is because he is always forward looking and proactive. He has good foresight and good knowlegde of the past as well. This guy can see the bigger picture, and it is rare to find critical thinkers. Most people are so hyperfixed on the short term (paycheque to paycheque mentality) and are reactice to news, so your show is a breath of fresh air for me. Thanks again.
Hey Casey,
Thanks so much! That is greatly appreciated :)
Thanks for bringing this to attention, as I suspect most people will not have listened to the governor's actual speech, and are only interested in hearing about rate cut speculations. We live in a connected world, and our economies are intricately linked. It is astounding that so many realtors (and more subtly, the mainstream media) believe that once the rate cuts are here, we are going back to another decade of low inflation/interest rates and debt-fueled growth for our favourite non-productive asset in real estate, when the risks of a global financial and/or geopolitical event have never been higher.
He bitpuff,
Thanks for the comment :) Definitely agreed - all too often we see a very simplistic worldview put forward by the usual suspects, when in fact the world is growing far more complicated day-to-day.
There's a smell in the air and i don't like it one bit....
Blame the world again for the domestic challenges. Our government is always amazing. They don't invest in domestic production they just shop around the world for the best deals. Then when that falls apart they blame the world for not giving us the lowest import prices so we can charge the highest resale prices locally. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply. This government has been the worst at expanding our money supply regardless of domestic and global issues. Now they can't reduce the money supply while prices stay where they are that just is not how it works. Deflation and lower prices go hand in hand. But why are they so resistant to lower prices? They know if prices come down the economy will pick up as we stay in the "zone". The risk to them is people will owe more than the value of their assets and they may dump them or walk away. So , save the people or save the dollar. This is the choice and government wants to save the dollar. This won't end good for the people and it is no surprise the government makes this choice. Buckle up :)
Our dollar is artificially high against the USD because the USD has been tanking in the last few weeks.
The USD will pick back up in the next 2' months and the loonie will go under 70c.
Should be interesting what J Powell does next week, it will dictate (IMO) what Canada does with rates going forward.
Really enjoyed this “global view” video. Good historical lessons. Very, very interesting. More like this, please.
Thanks Edward! I'll see what I can do :)
Morning mark... tiff is cornered..
Hey dougiep,
Definitely not in a great spot depending how things unfold - we'll how the economy (global and domestic) fairs over the next months/years ahead!
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario I pray for the kids mark.. this isn't gonna end well. I saw Arizona back in the day.. this is 5 times more inflated..
Wow who knew we would get 1970's like inflation - deflation pricing.
Thks Mark
Now inflation is a moving target. Not transitory anymore🤣
Excellent point at the end. Outside pressures are not understood by most people and the outside is becoming a lot more aggressive on many issues by the day. It's time to re embrace geopolitics.
Thanks mat! Definitely agreed - international pressures are likely to become more, not less, salient at time goes on.
Another good update. Thanks Mark.
Thanks for the content. I still see silly prices in the lowermainland. I guess the only solution is to leave canada.
Thx Mark
The rate cut narrative is far from over. Looking forward to more time on the Mark Mitchell channel. Nice reporting.
Thanks Joey!! Definitely not lol :) We'll see how the next few months play out :)
Always love your videos Mark! Keep them coming
Maybe through all this people will realize that the central banks and monitary policy do not exist just to rule over the real estate casino.
People forget that real estate isnt supposed to even be in the top 10 of things considered when setting interest rates.
Theres these little things called global trade and supply chains that we might want to watch.
Lol
Hey user,
Thanks for the comment :) Very true - the central bank is only concerned about RE to the extent that it can affect inflation (and to a lessor degree employment). Its peanuts in the grand scheme of concerns.
Thanks Mark. This is why i think rates will come but not as low as the general public thinks. It's going to a balancing act between rising unemployment and rising inflation from external pressures. We manufacture very little in Canada. I forecasted an inflationary depression back in 2021.
Hey dutchgirl,
Thanks for the comment :) Definitely a good point - interest rate policy isn't as simple as straight to zero because the economy is weakening - there are a lot of moving parts!
That sounded like "long term inflation is not going back to pre-pandemic levels this generation". The huge debt, at all levels, will work out either by increases in productivity, or inflating away. Inflating away would require a new BoC mandate. Productivity would require a tough economic time where weaker business models fold. Interesting times!
Hey timw,
Thanks as always for the great comment :) Yep - its a pretty tough spot!
At a point the BOC will have to choose between inflation and the Canadian economy.
Hey MM,
Thanks as always for the comment :) We could definitely get there - we'll see how the next few years unfold!
"We'll see what happens" buddy exudes confidence with that comment lol
LOL :) Not exactly confidence-inducing was it?
He says he wants to see spending increase per household in Canada ? It will , in the form of mortgage, rent and grocery payments going through the roof ! Why do you think Canadians debt is skyrocketing ? Borrowing money to live will only end in disaster !
That is exactly the path we're on.
All the money going to food and housing will crush us all in the long term.
Hey mark,
Thanks for the comment :) That does appear to be the case - consumer debt rising along with interest rates over the past few years.
Hyperinflation incoming baby.
consistently great content. Thanks so much
Thanks Casey!! Always appreciated :)
Yeah, global pressure on inflation when Canadians are charged nine dollars for a pound of butter because of 300% import tariffs on dairy goods. Many of Canadas products are not even traded freely within her borders. How much did dairy products go up in the past two years? Softwood lumber trade disputes with the US recently resulted in increased import tariffs. Prices rose that very day in Canada to cover it. Let's get our own house in order to reduce costs for Canadians.
Hey brianw,
Thanks for the comment :) That about sums it up!
Interest rates are headed higher after march 2025 !
Haven't finished the video yet so maybe he talks about this, but why specifically March 2025?
@@bhaalgorn It's all about the bigger cycles that are unfolding.
@@goldentiger1841
@goldentiger1841 please explain further then that. What cycles? Why do you predict March 2025 to be when they start unfolding?
@@bhaalgorn I suspect it's just wishful thinking.
I can't shake the feeling that we are going into a depression and WW3 has already started. 😢😮
Hopefully not! Lots of stresses showing up though.
Don't worry about depression and war with russia and china is already underway but russia face planted on the first step and there's still hope that china's front will remain cold.
It has started
WW3 is happening and we are losing. That is what "inflation" really is.
First! ...and with this new-found power, I will say that Mark is my favourite UA-camr.
Hey heytherecharlie (I like the name),
Thanks so much! I really appreciate that :)
How about we start with banning all Chinese foreign ownership on housing in Canada. That would definitely help balance the housing inflation. At least in BC an actual Canadian might have a chance.
The 1 %'ers running the country wouldn't allow that to happen. They are too busy getting rich from kickbacks and graft from the CCP. How has Trudeau's wealth grown astronomically since he came to power ? You don't think it's all George Soros and the WEF do you ?
And lower immigration (which I think we are doing now) because ANYWHERE in canada finding affordable housing its a stroke of luck
China is the scapegoat...regulate SPECULATIVE foreign ownership;)
China invested in a high tech economy decades ago while G7/EU/NATO countries have been collapsing their economies with wars and so-called"green" energy industries👎 China is also investing heavily on nuclear fusion to clean up the environment and improve its electric grid.
If the Yuan keeps on falling in value eventually no new money will flow from China into Vancouver real estate. I can't believe there isn't news coverage citing this fact.
We are part of the golden billion.
Yet what about the employment numbers. What we are seeing is stagflation.
Hey combinedagent,
Thanks for the comment :) The Governor laughed off the suggestion of stagflation a few months back - we'll see if price-growth continues to decline heading into the winter.
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario thanks, I keep feeling like this is the 1970’s in several ways including a Trudeau as PM.
The number is irrelevant because Canada is taking is far too many immigrants.
Lets all save the Enviroment, unless China makes it, then trade balance is more important than the Enviroment.
Hi bipolarpunt,
Definitely appeared to be a quick about-face didn't it?
We have a huge trade deficit with China / CCP. No country can allow the devastation of their manufacturing capacity. We can continue to work on the environment but not by being walked over by a geopolitical adversary. BYD , or other Chinese automakers need to set up shop in Canada and pay Canadian salaries. This will mean fair competition with North American manufacturers.
@@DrMarkyMark If thats what you want, thats fine, but dont want to hear any moaning and groaning about the following inflation
@@bipolarpunt5721 Tell that to China ! Global trade can’t continue with the current trade imbalance. You offer a false choice. Borrow, borrow, borrow to buy from China, or produce in our country.. both lead to inflation.
@@DrMarkyMarkYou probably have a house full of cheap Cninese products, that would make you a Hypocrite.
Great video; the muppet clip, and even the muppets themselves is a very apt portrayal of modern media.
lol :) Thanks zfighter!! I thought that too lol, fairly apt :)
You can read Jeff Rubin's "A Map of the New Normal: How Inflation, War, and Sanctions Will Change Your World Forever" for more information on this subject. Tarrifs war and sanctions will dictate the next 10 years for sure. People will have to accept higher interest rates.
Hey maruspian,
Definitely a great read! (its actually to the left of me in the video beside Tooze's book).
Do you have any opinions on why Tiff is coming out and voicing this risk publicly… 1) just wants to point out risks publicly 2) wants to cool down cutting bets in bond markets 3) wants to have some hedge to lean into if inflation rises (similar to the transitory era) so that he can continue to cut while inflation is above target if needed
Hey David,
Thanks as always for the comment :) I definitely found the timing a little strange - as the BoC is hoping to entice borrowing/spending right now. My guess (pure guess) is that its a hedge in case we do see an uptick in CPI over the coming year - the BoC can say they acknowledged the risks.
Thank you!
Thomas Piketty would disagree that inequality is cyclical. In Capitalism in the 21st century he argued that the destruction of physical assets after the World Wars, the bond market crash and other events acted as a reset function that eliminated a lot of the high net worth existing in the world putting many of us on a more level playing field. He argued that historically extreme inequality was actually the norm and we merely recently went through an unusual period of increased equality. The future will continue to become more and more unequal without a return to equality without similar catastrophic events to force it.
Hey Lambert,
Thanks for the comment :) He definitely would - though some have noted that Piketty’s analysis often focuses on national inequality trends while ignoring global shifts, while others have said that Piketty’s emphasis on crises as the main equalizing force ignores the potential of proactive policies to reduce inequality.
Peace and stability is by far the greatest trigger.
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario Proactive forces would be wonderful. Could I get a direct transfer payment from wealthy boomers into my FHSA?
It’s nearsighted to say globalization helped lower the cost-of-living because although commodities became cheaper wages stagnated because of cheap foreign labour so although products may have been more expensive without globalization it’s entirely possible the percentage of a persons income required to cover necessities could have been lower compared to how it is today.
Hey Brain,m
Thanks for the comment :) Definitely a good point - the BoC has even noted in its studies that competitive labour (induced by globalization) was instrumental in containing prices.
CANZUK!
Thx for highly competent coverage of presenting factors Mark... as always, simply the BEST !
That said, and Canada onviously not an island, hence my currently elevating concerns for a 'stagflationary' environment entrenching further given Canada's resource reliant worst in the G7/G20 Debt/servicing gdi deficit metrics with now even Oil dropping like a stone ever further constraining the Loonie on Global FX.
In my view, our Canadian standards of living are in imminent correction territory, with little chance for economic growth moving forward without acceptance of low rate fueled currency devaluation and resultant higher inflation.
How we are still at .74 cents Vrs USD I have NO clue ?
Regardless, NOT a nice time to be Tiff MacKlem in my view.
Hey dirtlump,
Thanks so much - as always :) Agreed, not an easy time for the Bank of Canada with pressures building!
Steel got more expensive as well due to tariff.
Which means you will find more value in existing steel infrastructure.
The future is with BRICS. Too bad for us, eh?
He is speaking for the WEF not Canada🫃
They have a new summer meetup called "Annual Meeting of the New Champions"
This as lumber tariffs are about to increase thanks
Yep! Not good - Do you think Canada will impost retaliatory tariffs?
Well it really affects the BC families besides Alberta. Retaliate ? lol do you really want to go there.
I see inflation on the housing market. deflation on stock prices. Layoffs. Oil price went down. Etc.etc
I always look to where the money will flow when the U.S. stock market finally implodes or they let it implode. Gold would be the first place. You never see captions today like "And you thought the stock market was overvalued in 1929".
I would like to know why the Canadian Bank is not buying gold but is willing to manipulate the price of silver?
They sold all of Canada's gold when its price was half what it is today.
Anything to bankrupt the country.
I have to admit. After so many years of warning folks since Nov 8, 2021 about the business and debt cycles ending.
Watching real estate specs, oil specs, commodity specs, and tech stock specs get body bagged is actually kinda fun.
Hubris has consequences.
Yes, I am evil. But only after trying to help....
You know this if you have followed my comments.
So I feel better. Now I just sit back and watch it crumble.
But fear not, in 2026 you will buy stuff for pennies on the dollar. SO save those digital nickel and dime CDBC's that the govt hands out next year and get back to work creating wealth.
That is if they let you spend your Digital coinage on anything but bugs
You are welcome.
Hey mogul,
Thanks for the comment :) Unfortunately we are seeing a bit more talk of that CBDC aren't we? Surveys say that no one wants it - so yeah you could be right lol.
Hyper inflation 😢 ..oh boy😮
Hopefully not! Time will tell I suppose :)
A factory can be built in Mexico (or Brazil or Peru….) OR in Canada/US. The factory will employee 1000 workers. All those workers want to have a car in their lives-preferably a new car. Those south of the US border can buy a Chinese EV for ~18,000 USD; those north of the border have no such option and buy an average car for ~44,000 USD. What do you think those employees expect for wages? That’s not to mention relative home prices. This holds true for every economic sector. Additionally, at to this that there are 54% fewer foreign students in Canadian universities/colleges this year. In 2023 there were over a million. At Queen’s a Canadian student pays ~$7,000 in tuition but Queen’s charges a foreign student $54,000. That foreign student also pays for housing and makes many other purchases. In Vancouver universities the foreign students pay a little over double in tuition. There were over 26,000 foreign student in Vancouver. It’s an exaggeration to say that 500,000 foreign students (paying more than the equivalent of a decent yearly wage into Canada’s economy) have been “laid off.” Still…. If they were to be in a factory or a collection of factories can you imagine the outcry? (And a false premise is that the US/Canada will make EVs that outcompete Chinese EVs in the global market place. If that were possible the German companies would be doing it in China, but they aren’t doing it successfully, and Tesla has done surprising well thus far but probably has only a year of marginal success left.) But the point is, a fantastic amount of money is no longer going to be coming into Canada because of these policies. All of Canada will be poorer. Yet, so many people think that these policies will make Canada great again.
Yeah it sux. Almost as bad as the alternative.
@@pizzapiglet The Universities/Colleges greatly prefer the alternative as opposed to all of the cutting of programs and staff. Students, whose low tuition was being subsidized by foreign tuition rates, prefer the alternative as opposed to higher tuition rates and fewer programs and all programs with less money. The investors in Real Estate who were buying places for students or modifying places for students will prefer the alternative to the losses they will take. The Canadians who wanted to buy a cheap EV (even though Canada is years behind with rolling out the infrastructure-charging stations) as opposed to an deliberately overpriced ICE vehicle want the alternative. The factory workers (and all other sectors) who never see the new factory come because the company builds in another country will never know the alternative that they lost. And all of this is to not mention the subtracting of all of the foreign workers and the money they bring into the country. Bottom line: Canada will inevitably be much poorer very quickly with a huge impact on the economy and the value of everything, but the MSM and the political parties will look elsewhere for the reasons because too few are open to honest discussion and honest realizations about these issues. Side note: check out a few episodes of THE ELECTRIC VIKING on UA-cam if you want a very clear picture of the global EV reality.
All for free trade, totally opposed to globalization. One is economic the other political. Don't want the UN, WEF, WHO, EU, the US empire having anything to do with my life. Fine with buying from any country (but want to know what country its from).
Cons. have asked for Carney to be registered under existing rules for advisors / lobbyists etc which is smart as his meetings could become public knowledge lol ! All i'm interested in knowing is if he is meeting with Tiff. Mac and gang at BoC and would love to be a fly on the wall lol as leaning to his role primarily in being cleaning out the banks mess atm
Hey jay,
Thanks for the comment :) I saw that - Carney does appear to be wearing a lot of different hats these days doesn't he?
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario How's he going to fix 1M food bank visits in ON alone lol ? But can bail the banks with a few clicks or the CTRL-P rackets lol
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario Read somewhere under former PM Mulroney no. cos were allowed to hide ownership lol the 123XY Co. rackets lol ! Is this true ?
Read somewhere under former PM Mulroney no. cos were allowed to hide ownership lol the 123XY Co. rackets lol ! Is this true ?
Everybody except for Trump knows that tariffs are inflationary. Trump seems to think the tariffs are paid by the exporting country, not the end consumers.
Hey al,
Thanks as always for the comment :) I saw that too - Its surprising he's still sticking with that explanation. Though, I was surprise to see Harris not rebut it, as its fairly common knowledge that tariffs aren't paid by the target country.
hard to figure out which is worse.. foreign policy, domestic policy, or financial policy.. oh well
Politicians don’t care about stabilizing people’s lives. Just their political power through propaganda as this. Gotta love your expensive life
What ?
9:25 What a load of BS how the hell are households who owe nearly $1.70 in debt for every $1 they earn supposed to increase their spending when their wages are still miles behind the inflation curve?
Hey chris,
I thought something very similar when I watched it!
Canada don't import a single electric vehicles from Chinese car companies, except Tesla, which is a North American company. This does not bring any advantage to Canada. Canola exports to China are around five billion dollars, and China can easily source it from other countries, same with any other commodities. Canola futures are already down. This is a self-inflicted wound on behalf of the USA. As usual, good one mark!!
The guys from the Duran UA-cam channel are good at this geopolitical analysis.
China under the CCP is a geopolitical adversary that hates are way of life. We have a huge trade deficit with China. We should continue to built alliances with other western countries to fight back!
While we are busily playing our role in the musical chairs game of tariffs, we should consider we may well come under the gun ourselves. While China is not to be trusted, neither is the U.S.
No one mentioned the destabilisation in the Red Sea that has resulted in spot prices for Global shipping to soar. This will augment tariff based inflation.
Chinese money laundering from roughly 2008-17 played a big part in the r/e bubble besides low int. rates and no major groups to replace them now as China in deflation and some more controls around foreign ownership. Corp. buyers like Blackrock etc could take their place as the mkt. tanks in the next 1-3 yrs. so need to see rules tighten around them too
Depression 2026
War in 2025.
I dated a girl who was multipolar, it didn't end well 🙄
Lol
Not much of a stand against China by adding a 100% tariff on ev’s, the European and domestic brands are cutting back on development like they’re a financial black hole. I think they’re playing the long game on how to explain the next ten year’s economy after letting the government and banks gamble with every asset connected to all the major pension plans over the previous ten years. This script is a prequel.
Hey user,
Thanks for the comment :) Is did appear to have that kind of a ring to it didn't it?
Black Rock is the culprit here. Say hello to Capitalism 101
Under Tiff,
we get poorer every day 😢
Hi, I'll try to answer this question and Mark should do a vid on the subject. Yes- if you've basically lived as a young adult for the past 25 yrs and only seen lowering interest rates to 0.05%. No- if you are a senior who's experienced higher inflation from 70's till end of 99's era. The financiliazation of everything people have created the most inequality. It wasn't like this going back 25-50 yrs ago and small businesses thrived.
All the retirees and savers get poorer with each Bank of Canada rate cut.
@parkerbohnn It's very simple to see what has been manipulated by our central bankers. They work for the rich and how? Take 'helicopter Ben' or QE as it is known. The more money is artificially created, a significant portion is used to buy and support financial products. Not just treasuries which are then recycled thru the banks (higher dividends for the rich shareholders and I mean >1M shares) bit also directly purchasing bonds of all types that go thru ETFs. More dividends being paid out to those who own fortunes in shares. All the while the rest of the plebs have to pay more in taxes = inflation and get a pathetic 3% return on their hard earned savings. My solution has always been to tax the top 25% of wealthiest at 22% of all their financial holdings including properties and this alone will reduce the national deficits by at least 75%. You will see how quickly valuations at all levels will adjust for the benefit of all tax payers. 😀
They should ask what happens if the Liberals get in again. 🤣... But people are more worried about other countries to cover up the elephant in the room.
It doesn't matter who has their hands on the tiller when the hyperinflation storm hits, the result is going to be the same.
Can the 5 year fixed go to 3% by end of next year?
Not possible
@@vs6462it’s possible, some 3.99% offers being offered out there.
Hey gunmoorsingh,
I think its possible - we'll see how the economies of Canada (and more importantly, the U.S.) play out. With that said, its also possible it will stay close to where it is. Definitely an uncertain time!
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario I think before 2019 it was around 3% can come by if both US and CAN do 4-5 cuts by end of next year.
@@gurnoorsingh5018
Malinvestment and bad debt will start imploding at the same time inflation shoots higher.
Thanks for clickiiiiing!!!
Thanks Brandy!!!
Canada should allow Russia and China to do more trade with us if the U.S wants to impose sanctions…..maybe we need alternative solutions to support the Canadian economy. I mean after all…..we’ve literally allowed millions of Chinese and Russian citizens living amongst us.
Lol haha, pure comedy man!
Lol :) Thanks ftrudeau! Always appreciated :)
😅
Thanks Peter!!
Please be my mortgage broker in Alberta!
Roughly half of mortgage holders have yet to face higher rates ( tostar) headline today. Party just getting warmed up or in 3rd innings of the collapse ?
Thanks for the content. I still see silly prices in the lowermainland. I guess the only solution is to leave canada.
Hey gskills,
Very welcome! Have they dropped at all?