As a 76 year old long retired ISye this is an amazing memory for me. As an undergraduate in the late 1960's and earning my Bachelors degree in 1970, I can remember at least having some exposure to this back then. However, my career took a different turn and after graduation I served four years in the Air Force where I became very involved in computers and networks concluding as the Network Engineer and Security Officer for an organization that involved over 90K employees. I can remember ALWAYS thinking outside of my narrow area and gained a reputation for having considerable expertise in both the technical aspects of our computer systems and networks, but also deep knowledge and understanding of the business process and goals. My first thoughts on beginning any new project was to consider myself the student and work with the people who were actually doing the work and focus on what they needed and what affected them. Then use what I had learned about the ENTIRE system to make the goals of the project either happen or change to what was really needed. Oh, and I was really familiar with the work of Jay Forrester both in this area and in electronics. Thanks again for making this video available.
I’m more fascinated at how everyone’s just dining during the lecture. MIT really is the greatest university ever. I don’t know why we don’t just incorporate lunch into classrooms it would probably improve GDP by 2%.
Discovered System Dynamics well after I took a software design class and I WISH I took System Dynamics prior since i feel like this is a far better visual language for designing/describing complex systems. It would have made software development much easier to grasp as a beginner
Gracias por el aporte magnánimo de los pocos canales que aportan a la sociedad no soy de juzgar pero hay canales con contenido burdo e insulso que tienen millones de vistas cuando no aportan algo util en la vida. Gracias por enriquecer al conocimiento científico saludos y un gran abrazo desde Ecuador a todos los profesionales, eminencias desde Ecuador son unos crack 👏👏👏📖👍
To really be able to manage a supply chain, politics and psychology is probably more important than advanced mathematics. Having a more efficient supply chain is only going to maybe shave 2 to 5% off. But not knowing geopolitics and behavioural psychology could massively reduce your productivity when big events that you did not forsee hits you. That is what is going to bankrupt your company.
Thanks for the free video. I think this field should explore the Linux kernel project. It's a truly globally distributed project with all remote workers while being the most important software project of our times. There should be a lot to learn from it.
Wondered at the beginning why the world has not adopted the fancy System dynamics. Half way through it reckoned it's just a fancy term for the natural and logical essentials.
I have question though regarding the fact that you put a lot of emphasis on simulation , but do you still a good understanding of a system like economic / financial one using simulation even though most of the variables involved tend to be non stationary and characterized by heavy tails in their empirical distributions ?
system dynamics focuses on parts of math that better replicate the long tailed behavior of large systems, but you're right, it's very hard to know enough to actually eliminate long tails. that said, it should always be an improvement to *keep in mind that* there is a closed loop that's worth analyzing, at least in principle.
Using engineering and control systems theory to model social situations resonates. 4:36. In my observation, human behavior is similar to electrical components with respect to how we receive information: Our emotional reaction or charge can be modeled as resistive, capacitive, inductive, and ramping, like a transistor... 15:58 is a good mindset when and asking questions to offer validation and non judgement to the person answering questions: To assume that person's perspective is their truth. Quantum systems in superposition, require this "acceptance of someone else's truth," over binary systems. Learning quantum computing systems may actually help us become better people by helping us understand other perspectives, over digital systems. Recall that the Greeks had no negative numbers.
In other words making even a small change to a complex system will produce effects which you predicted but also effects which were impossible to predict. Making a large change to a complex system will, with almost certainty, produce effects that are contrary to the desired effect. “We” need to think about that before we talk about any macro restructuring of social systems. The only way to improve conditions in a complex system (with intended results) is to do it carefully. to make a small change…see what happpens…analyze…repeat.
It is not possible to change social systems by "small changes". Technology inventions or environmental catastrophes produce disruptive changes and social systems are forced to evolve.
a good way to get intuition about feedback in systems is the many life rules, continuous time life rules, dynamics of various PDEs, etc you can find simulations of on UA-cam. formally, you prefer when a system stays low enough chaos to understand the effects of actions, because the future is a fractal of possible effects, and landing in the low-chaos regions of the possible worldlines replaces less of the outcome with noise. stated less obtusely, changes with more finite effects are more measurable.
I'm enlightened by the depth and breadth of this content. A book with related material radically changed my views. "The Art of Meaningful Relationships in the 21st Century" by Leo Flint
Here are some extremely important points: Current Analysis: Long Term: (Short Version): * Species stay on this Earth: They all eventually die and go extinct. * Species leave this Earth: They all eventually die and go extinct. (No exceptions at this time).
Find a way for at least one single species to continue to exist beyond this Earth, solar system and collapsing spiral shaped galaxy. Otherwise, all life from this Earth, real and artificial, will eventually die and go extinct. It would not even matter that any of us ever existed in the first place, much less how any of us existed while we existed, because one day, there wouldn't be any life left to care.
3 basic ways out of this galaxy to potentially continue to survive, (as a species or whatever evolves from our species): 1. Long way: Outward through the galactic plane. 2. Medium way: Outward through the angled solar system's plane. 3. Short way: Outward, about 90 degrees from the galactic plane, as adjusted for the galactic magnetic lines of flux for a smoother ride. (Basically 'rise above' the collapsing spiral shaped galaxy). * And music, don't forget music. It's going to be a long trip.
Do my gravity test and 'if' true, potentially have the literal theory of everything for this universe which might aid in at least one species surviving beyond this galaxy. (copy and paste from my files): Here is the test for the 'gravity' portion of my TOE idea. I do not have the necessary resources to do the test but maybe you or someone else reading this does, will do the test, then tell the world what is found out either way. a. Imagine a 12 hour clock. b. Put a magnetic field across from the 3 to 9 o'clock positions. c. Put an electric field across from the 6 to 12 o'clock positions. (The magnetic field and electric field would be 90 degrees to each other and should be polarized so as to complement each other.) d. Direct a high powered laser through the center of the clock at 90 degrees to the em fields. e. Do this with the em fields on and off. (The em fields could be varied in size, strength, density and depth. The intent would be to energy frequency match the laser and em fields for optimal results, cancelling out the em modalities of the laser, thereby leaving behind the gravity modality.) f. Look for any gravitational / anti-gravitational effects. (Including the utilization of ferro cells so as to be able to actually see the energy field movements.) (And note: if done right, it's possible a mini gravitational black hole might form. Be ready for it. In addition, it's possible a neutrino might be formed before the black hole stage, the neutrino being a substance with a very high gravitational modality with very low 'em' modalities.) (An alternative to the above would be to direct 3 high powered lasers, or a single high powered laser split into 3 beams, each adjustable to achieve the above set up, all focused upon a single point in space.) 'If' effects are noted, 'then' further research could be done. 'If' effects are not noted, 'then' my latest TOE idea is wrong. But still, we would know what 'gravity' was not, which is still something in the scientific world. Science still wins either way and moves forward.
@@Jeff-tp5tc Until one can have nor more fun. Then, why keep living? Life itself only matters to life itself, but only as long as life itself still exists. It's just that life itself is not always going to exist, at least not from this Earth. It's like people who do their bucket lists. What exactly are they going to remember after they are dead?
This was a one-day workshop, there are no more videos. See the resource on MIT OpenCourseWare for more info at: ocw.mit.edu/RES-15-004IAP20. Best wishes on your studies!
Also, why use use different colors for up and down pointing arrows? Red suggests "wrong", green suggests "bad". Less complaints could be considered a "good" event. 🤔
Big danger in this lies in making oversimplified models and mistakenly thinking they are accurate and that we can use them for central planning and policy building to control a system that is a lot more complex than we can model. Unintended consequences. Think climate models, e.g.
@@kabonline0924 some dabbling using Markov Decision Process agents interacting with each other and the environment. Each agent learns best decision policy via something like multifaceted Q-learning. Lot of work has been done along these lines. Many papers.
It’s a decent managerial tool because the data is usually derived from a specific source/journal entry. It’s an internal process primarily because even if your data is accurate and plentiful but you’re unable to pinpoint the process timing, the model will be unable to predict the results necessary to allow for a interpretable system . social ramifications are not as felt as something like public policy being decided on a simplified model.
i never got my ____ sucked by a ___ when another one was _______ her with a ___ and they both loved me deeply and made my breakfast after then told me they were billionairesses and gave me half of their fortune to keep.. maybe today is my day!? :)
MIT was NOT the source of system dynamics..Forrester was, in his work before he was even with you guys.. show some respect and don't try to take his glory for your institution to look good
I found the audio interesting. However, I find it very distracting when video seems to focus on people playing on their phones, cutting an already small piece of food/meat into an even smaller piece, pulled/redacted content, and female anatomy (intentional prank diagram/chart?). Definitely feels like open courseware. I guess that's all us peasants are allowed.
Ben from parks and rec is killing it on this lecture.
As a 76 year old long retired ISye this is an amazing memory for me. As an undergraduate in the late 1960's and earning my Bachelors degree in 1970, I can remember at least having some exposure to this back then. However, my career took a different turn and after graduation I served four years in the Air Force where I became very involved in computers and networks concluding as the Network Engineer and Security Officer for an organization that involved over 90K employees.
I can remember ALWAYS thinking outside of my narrow area and gained a reputation for having considerable expertise in both the technical aspects of our computer systems and networks, but also deep knowledge and understanding of the business process and goals. My first thoughts on beginning any new project was to consider myself the student and work with the people who were actually doing the work and focus on what they needed and what affected them. Then use what I had learned about the ENTIRE system to make the goals of the project either happen or change to what was really needed. Oh, and I was really familiar with the work of Jay Forrester both in this area and in electronics. Thanks again for making this video available.
Once told System Dynamics is one of those must-take course from MIT. Thanks for uploading
It is.
I’m more fascinated at how everyone’s just dining during the lecture. MIT really is the greatest university ever. I don’t know why we don’t just incorporate lunch into classrooms it would probably improve GDP by 2%.
imagine you are a prof in hunger and your students dining a feast lmfao which prof would want that 🤣🤣
Well why not sports & sex too
maybe they should pay attention to the lecture and not food.. eat after the lectures
😂 Agreed. We should apply that policy (eating lunches during lectures)
Should have wait staff at the ready
14:00 system thinking foundational assumptions
28:00 obligatory correlation and causation
Thanks for opening lectures for free. I really appreciated the explanation of the causality principle from a system-level point of view.
Business Dynamics by John Sterman Chapter 1 & 2 for a good overview of system dynamics/thinking
Starts talking about book reccs at 45:00 ish or after
Thought I was taking a break from the news, then I saw how this applies to everything. Very good.
👌
Thank goodness for the existance of an institution such as MIT
29:43! I love how the students (mainly undergrads) kept him honest. MIT is a great place. Imagine it was a room of MBAs and yes-men/women !!
We need more videos to this topics. Where are the other 2 hours?
An insightful framework, even such a small loop model solved my problem and enhanced my understanding.
Discovered System Dynamics well after I took a software design class and I WISH I took System Dynamics prior since i feel like this is a far better visual language for designing/describing complex systems. It would have made software development much easier to grasp as a beginner
Check out Abdel Hamid's Software Project Dynamics text
Gracias por el aporte magnánimo de los pocos canales que aportan a la sociedad no soy de juzgar pero hay canales con contenido burdo e insulso que tienen millones de vistas cuando no aportan algo util en la vida. Gracias por enriquecer al conocimiento científico saludos y un gran abrazo desde Ecuador a todos los profesionales, eminencias desde Ecuador son unos crack 👏👏👏📖👍
Thanks for spending the time to create and share this content awareness/perspective 🙏🏾
Great lecture. It would be cool if MIT could post the whole System Dynamics class.
A great presentation of a complex set of concepts and notions.
To really be able to manage a supply chain, politics and psychology is probably more important than advanced mathematics. Having a more efficient supply chain is only going to maybe shave 2 to 5% off. But not knowing geopolitics and behavioural psychology could massively reduce your productivity when big events that you did not forsee hits you. That is what is going to bankrupt your company.
There is no such thing as models, just reality, but models provide understanding and opportunities for intervention and change.
well, really, models, when written down, or thought about, become a part of that system of reality for whoever thinks of or writes them
Thank you for such a great foundation of the basics of systems dynamics!
Thanks for the free video.
I think this field should explore the Linux kernel project. It's a truly globally distributed project with all remote workers while being the most important software project of our times.
There should be a lot to learn from it.
starts at 4:30
Wonderful lecture. The presentation is great; especially to somebody new to this topic.
very interesting to apply systems thinking in healthcare
glad to have found this .
54:57 India has developed similar calculator recently and it has more options for future energy understanding. IESS2047.
Wondered at the beginning why the world has not adopted the fancy System dynamics. Half way through it reckoned it's just a fancy term for the natural and logical essentials.
Wow very similar setup to the one studied within Reinforcement learning !
Thank you! MIT opencourse
I have question though regarding the fact that you put a lot of emphasis on simulation , but do you still a good understanding of a system like economic / financial one using simulation even though most of the variables involved tend to be non stationary and characterized by heavy tails in their empirical distributions ?
I hope you became a good engineer
system dynamics focuses on parts of math that better replicate the long tailed behavior of large systems, but you're right, it's very hard to know enough to actually eliminate long tails. that said, it should always be an improvement to *keep in mind that* there is a closed loop that's worth analyzing, at least in principle.
Wonderful resources, thank you for sharing
moar please! can we watch the rest of the course?
Does anyone know where to watch the fish banks exercise?
Using engineering and control systems theory to model social situations resonates. 4:36.
In my observation, human behavior is similar to electrical components with respect to how we receive information: Our emotional reaction or charge can be modeled as resistive, capacitive, inductive, and ramping, like a transistor...
15:58 is a good mindset when and asking questions to offer validation and non judgement to the person answering questions: To assume that person's perspective is their truth. Quantum systems in superposition, require this "acceptance of someone else's truth," over binary systems.
Learning quantum computing systems may actually help us become better people by helping us understand other perspectives, over digital systems. Recall that the Greeks had no negative numbers.
Wonderful presentation !
In other words making even a small change to a complex system will produce effects which you predicted but also effects which were impossible to predict. Making a large change to a complex system will, with almost certainty, produce effects that are contrary to the desired effect.
“We” need to think about that before we talk about any macro restructuring of social systems.
The only way to improve conditions in a complex system (with intended results) is to do it carefully. to make a small change…see what happpens…analyze…repeat.
It is not possible to change social systems by "small changes". Technology inventions or environmental catastrophes produce disruptive changes and social systems are forced to evolve.
a good way to get intuition about feedback in systems is the many life rules, continuous time life rules, dynamics of various PDEs, etc you can find simulations of on UA-cam. formally, you prefer when a system stays low enough chaos to understand the effects of actions, because the future is a fractal of possible effects, and landing in the low-chaos regions of the possible worldlines replaces less of the outcome with noise. stated less obtusely, changes with more finite effects are more measurable.
I'm enlightened by the depth and breadth of this content. A book with related material radically changed my views. "The Art of Meaningful Relationships in the 21st Century" by Leo Flint
Do we apply system thinking when attending this lecture?
14:10 "every thing that goes around, comes around"
36:07
Reminded me of scarface
"manny we're getting slobby, many.. We ain't hungry no more"
Useful and innovative !❤
Thanks MIT
Thank you very much
Love this
Here are some extremely important points:
Current Analysis: Long Term: (Short Version):
* Species stay on this Earth: They all eventually die and go extinct.
* Species leave this Earth: They all eventually die and go extinct.
(No exceptions at this time).
Find a way for at least one single species to continue to exist beyond this Earth, solar system and collapsing spiral shaped galaxy. Otherwise, all life from this Earth, real and artificial, will eventually die and go extinct. It would not even matter that any of us ever existed in the first place, much less how any of us existed while we existed, because one day, there wouldn't be any life left to care.
3 basic ways out of this galaxy to potentially continue to survive, (as a species or whatever evolves from our species):
1. Long way: Outward through the galactic plane.
2. Medium way: Outward through the angled solar system's plane.
3. Short way: Outward, about 90 degrees from the galactic plane, as adjusted for the galactic magnetic lines of flux for a smoother ride. (Basically 'rise above' the collapsing spiral shaped galaxy).
* And music, don't forget music. It's going to be a long trip.
Do my gravity test and 'if' true, potentially have the literal theory of everything for this universe which might aid in at least one species surviving beyond this galaxy.
(copy and paste from my files):
Here is the test for the 'gravity' portion of my TOE idea. I do not have the necessary resources to do the test but maybe you or someone else reading this does, will do the test, then tell the world what is found out either way.
a. Imagine a 12 hour clock.
b. Put a magnetic field across from the 3 to 9 o'clock positions.
c. Put an electric field across from the 6 to 12 o'clock positions.
(The magnetic field and electric field would be 90 degrees to each other and should be polarized so as to complement each other.)
d. Direct a high powered laser through the center of the clock at 90 degrees to the em fields.
e. Do this with the em fields on and off.
(The em fields could be varied in size, strength, density and depth. The intent would be to energy frequency match the laser and em fields for optimal results, cancelling out the em modalities of the laser, thereby leaving behind the gravity modality.)
f. Look for any gravitational / anti-gravitational effects.
(Including the utilization of ferro cells so as to be able to actually see the energy field movements.)
(And note: if done right, it's possible a mini gravitational black hole might form. Be ready for it. In addition, it's possible a neutrino might be formed before the black hole stage, the neutrino being a substance with a very high gravitational modality with very low 'em' modalities.)
(An alternative to the above would be to direct 3 high powered lasers, or a single high powered laser split into 3 beams, each adjustable to achieve the above set up, all focused upon a single point in space.)
'If' effects are noted, 'then' further research could be done.
'If' effects are not noted, 'then' my latest TOE idea is wrong. But still, we would know what 'gravity' was not, which is still something in the scientific world. Science still wins either way and moves forward.
@@Jeff-tp5tc If we are going to work on something that truly matters:
What good is life if there are no entities left to live it?
@@Jeff-tp5tc Until one can have nor more fun. Then, why keep living? Life itself only matters to life itself, but only as long as life itself still exists. It's just that life itself is not always going to exist, at least not from this Earth. It's like people who do their bucket lists. What exactly are they going to remember after they are dead?
Where are rest of these videos?
This was a one-day workshop, there are no more videos. See the resource on MIT OpenCourseWare for more info at: ocw.mit.edu/RES-15-004IAP20. Best wishes on your studies!
@@mitocw Aw man! I was looking for Systems Science resources. Thanks. Keep up the good work.
Any one models stock or any kind of securities markets using system dynamics
34'20" Time Spent Resolving Issues goes Down, not UP.
Also, why use use different colors for up and down pointing arrows? Red suggests "wrong", green suggests "bad". Less complaints could be considered a "good" event. 🤔
Greate acknowledgement about intelligence
this reminds me of dialectical materialism
They do have lots of communists in academia, this is going to become a problem in a few hundred years.
Every actor is rational, and everyone acts in their own/the systems best interest?
Hell of an assumption to make right from the jump.
6:05
LoL dude in grey shirt having lunch
thank you MIT!
Thank you 🙌
A three hour tour, a three hour tour...
14 mins in dis markov chains?
The smartest CEO in the world somehow figure out those models in the lecture. Especially the loop model is used by Jeff Bezos.
I guess this is the foundation of Phycohistory?
A paper will soon be available in the System Dynamics review examining that idea, Asimov and Forrester.
4:23 great meal haha ~
Peter Senge is conspicuous by absence. Is he a persona non grata. At MIT
“All else being equal” = ceteris paribus
Believe in Engineering.Learn Core Engineering practices here🇺🇸💯
trust the plan
Big danger in this lies in making oversimplified models and mistakenly thinking they are accurate and that we can use them for central planning and policy building to control a system that is a lot more complex than we can model. Unintended consequences. Think climate models, e.g.
I like your comment as I agree with it. How to incorporate human irrationality in system dynamics mocdl..any work done?
@@kabonline0924 some dabbling using Markov Decision Process agents interacting with each other and the environment. Each agent learns best decision policy via something like multifaceted Q-learning. Lot of work has been done along these lines. Many papers.
@@musicarroll just cite one or to which could be found in google scholar?
It’s a decent managerial tool because the data is usually derived from a specific source/journal entry. It’s an internal process primarily because even if your data is accurate and plentiful but you’re unable to pinpoint the process timing, the model will be unable to predict the results necessary to allow for a interpretable system . social ramifications are not as felt as something like public policy being decided on a simplified model.
Covid modelling
💖
Never got a like on a youtube comment, maybe today is my day
It is.
There you go 🎉
i never got my ____ sucked by a ___ when another one was _______ her with a ___ and they both loved me deeply and made my breakfast after then told me they were billionairesses and gave me half of their fortune to keep.. maybe today is my day!? :)
Proof that engineers do, in fact, know how to do everyone else's job better than they do.
do an experiment where they put an extra $500 in ppl's EBT cash account and see if gun violence goes down 😐
👍🏻
❤❤❤
Too tired to watch, I'll be back 😴
sweeeeet
cool
Don't waste 1 hour of your time on this guys. There's a lot of twitter threads or blogposts that explain this in 5 minutes
MIT was NOT the source of system dynamics..Forrester was, in his work before he was even with you guys.. show some respect and don't try to take his glory for your institution to look good
Not really useful. Pretty abstract and not related to reality.
I found the audio interesting. However, I find it very distracting when video seems to focus on people playing on their phones, cutting an already small piece of food/meat into an even smaller piece, pulled/redacted content, and female anatomy (intentional prank diagram/chart?). Definitely feels like open courseware. I guess that's all us peasants are allowed.
one guy is eating something on the table...