How to Build a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) | Step-By-Step Guide From Ex-JP Morgan Investment Banker

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 24 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 220

  • @rareliquid
    @rareliquid  2 роки тому +9

    ⭐ Alto IRA⭐
    ► Open a crypto IRA & Get $50 for FREE: altoira.grsm.io/rareliquid
    👇Download the Templates👇
    ► www.dropbox.com/sh/vco01w7g626tc61/AACSqicz-YQUid0RoDPEo8m6a?dl=0
    🚀Sign up for my Courses🚀
    ► How to get into investment banking: forms.gle/wt4cZrezbxVgNzGUA
    ► How to get into MBA programs: forms.gle/9yEyycuP7NnQBjue8
    ► How to research crypto: forms.gle/fvzTKu13pBgPnBMA9

    • @cepochukwu
      @cepochukwu 2 роки тому

      is EBIAT the same as NOPAT?

  • @lorenzo4103
    @lorenzo4103 2 роки тому +46

    hey Ben, nice video! Would like to see LBOs and Power Point presentation you did at JPM. Ould you do a video about that?

    • @rareliquid
      @rareliquid  2 роки тому +19

      both of these will be coming soon!

  • @rareliquid
    @rareliquid  2 роки тому +30

    ⏱Timestamps⏱
    0:00 - Introduction
    1:28 - Alto IRA
    3:01 - What is a DCF?
    4:12 - The 5 Steps of a DCF
    4:36 - Step 1 - Projecting Free Cash Flow
    12:51 - Step 2 - Calculating WACC
    19:34 - Step 3 - Calculating Terminal Value
    23:13 - Step 4 - Discounting back to Present Value
    24:16 - Step 5 - Calculating Implied Share Price
    27:00 - Advanced Topics

  • @AlvinHancock-b8p
    @AlvinHancock-b8p 5 місяців тому +2

    I just wanted to say how much I appreciate your commitment to helping traders succeed. Your strategies are so well researched and effective, and your willingness to share them with us without any expectation of payment is truly inspiring. Thank you for being such an amazing teacher and mentor.

  • @MCrypto020
    @MCrypto020 2 роки тому +6

    Love the vid, I just think there is a little mistake when calculating the cost of equity at 16:30. It is a + like u mention later instead of x

  • @julian5094
    @julian5094 Рік тому +3

    I just want to say thanks for this video. Couldn’t find much on a step by step tutorial DCF. 🙏🏽🚀

  • @marcusdenter1758
    @marcusdenter1758 Місяць тому +2

    Youre videos are great man! Its easy to get bogged down in over-explaining and going into excruciating detail in these things but you really nailed it in keeping it straightforward and crystal clear so even those new to the topics to grasp. Thats a true mark of an expert mate. Keep doing what you do!

  • @roydavis1417
    @roydavis1417 2 роки тому +17

    Your insights on operating assets and operating liabilities. Your insights into years used to project and even mentioning using 20-30 years at JPMorgan. Also really breaking down the information you value worth projecting or using. All very useful, thank you. This was without a doubt your best DCF video yet. It was explained very well.
    I was interested in the concept of years used forward, cause really all we're doing is trying to predict a future market cap in todays value. I also realized the market can move rather quickly, so a long projection isn't always going to be the case, it's just simply a way for the calculation to give us a fair idea if we weight it with those years. However with the recession coming those years will likely matter (lol).

    • @rareliquid
      @rareliquid  2 роки тому +2

      thanks so much for the nice comment!

  • @ecccc758
    @ecccc758 2 роки тому +3

    Clean workbook formatting, easy to follow PPT's, and step-by-step instructions. FANTASTIC instruction methodology, thanks for the informative content!

  • @dixonyamada6969
    @dixonyamada6969 Рік тому +3

    the cost of equity formula in the slide has a typo. risk free rate PLUS beta, not TIMES beta.

  • @joshuaalfred8307
    @joshuaalfred8307 2 роки тому +6

    5 minutes in. Subscribed. I could immediately tell content is legit.
    Looking forward to your in-depth video explaining DCF. Everyone else covers a dumbed down DCF, but I want to understand it like the professionals do.

  • @keedtalktoem3674
    @keedtalktoem3674 2 роки тому +8

    Great work, clean and precise on everything. Only thing i would argue on is the TGR being equal to GDP growth. Through my experience i’ve always learned to be conservative when valuing a company and therefore have a TGR usually 1-2% lower than GDP growth

    • @benadkins7695
      @benadkins7695 11 місяців тому

      If you're generating a return less than or equal to inflation, you wouldn't be purchasing stocks over bonds unless you owned a majority share.

  • @danielmaher7781
    @danielmaher7781 2 роки тому +6

    Great video and explanation. FYI you can make your Ticker a 'Stock' Data Type in excel which gives you access to some useful info like market cap, beta, share price etc so you don't need to keep updating manually. Worth giving it a try :)

  • @kilotrades803
    @kilotrades803 4 місяці тому +2

    is there a formula for how you got the projections? how exactly did you get those numbers?

  • @milespulvers5858
    @milespulvers5858 Рік тому +5

    Where did you get all the projections? Did you calculate them, and if so how, or did you find them from an outside source? Building my own DCF for an application so I'd really appreciate some advice.

  • @adityarajamani93
    @adityarajamani93 Рік тому +2

    how did you get the revenue for 2022,2024,2025 etc. As in what assumptions did you make to get the different growth rate percentage

  • @luisfilipesf
    @luisfilipesf 7 місяців тому +2

    Hi! Thanks for the video really appreciated. Quick question: how did you make the %growth in revenue and other assumptions?

  • @JoshuaLam89
    @JoshuaLam89 2 роки тому +17

    hi i have some questions, how do you determine the income statement and casflow items from year 2022-2026? And how do you calculate (or get the data) for 'cost of debt', 'risk free rate', and 'market risk premium'? Thanks. Great content.

    • @louisvilleseche2996
      @louisvilleseche2996 Рік тому +2

      Cost of debt is the yield to maturity (or interest rate) that the debt is supplied at, risk free rate is generally the yield to maturity of 10 year T bills, market risk premium is the expected return of the asset minus the risk free rate. Hope this helps

    • @ardianthaputera6970
      @ardianthaputera6970 2 місяці тому +1

      two years past, have you found out how to determine/estimate the income statement and cashflow items?

    • @picco-gh1pq
      @picco-gh1pq Місяць тому

      ​@@ardianthaputera6970no

  • @yannbeko
    @yannbeko Рік тому +1

    Those video are so cool ! Complicated to traduce everything from english to french but it makes me step up. Every step count when you have an objectives

  • @sriram181
    @sriram181 Рік тому +3

    9:55 hey , how did you arrive at the projected growth in revenue figures and projected growth in EBIT figures ? Was that a product of some calculation or was that a general assumption?

  • @DStrak007
    @DStrak007 3 місяці тому +1

    Hey Ben, great video! I noticed a minor correction that might be helpful.
    The formula for the cost of equity should not multiply the Risk-Free Rate by Beta.
    Instead, the correct formula using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is:
    Cost of Equity= Risk Free Rate+β×(Expected Market Return−Risk-Free Rate)
    All The Best,
    Juv

    • @sackjuckn6353
      @sackjuckn6353 13 днів тому

      Expected Market Return - Risk Free Rate = Market Risk Premium. You just rearranged the equation, it’s the same! :)

  • @nikobaklanov4455
    @nikobaklanov4455 2 роки тому +1

    Hello! Thank you for such a cool video, just one remark you had a mistake on the video with "What is WACC" where you multiplied the risk free rate in the formula instead of adding it as you explained further on.

  • @rodrigogonzalez2673
    @rodrigogonzalez2673 2 роки тому +2

    Can you do a video of PowerPoint presentation skills and most common shortcuts there as well?

  • @aryavbothra9662
    @aryavbothra9662 2 роки тому +20

    This is so awesome!! Could you share the template for the DCF with the multiple cases (conservative, base, etc.) as well please? I’ve been struggling with the formatting for so long and it would be a tremendous help. Thanks so much for this whole DCF series, it’s been a lifesaver!!!

  • @thaiphung8357
    @thaiphung8357 2 роки тому +2

    Can you also do an instruction video for DDM and RI model? Some corporations do not operate in a way other firms do so DCF is not applicable for them. Thanks

  • @WasteSecond
    @WasteSecond 2 роки тому +3

    I'd love a video on how to calculate the diluted shares outstanding

  • @francoestrada8656
    @francoestrada8656 Місяць тому

    Don't know if you still read these comments but I absolutely love Random Access Memories and noticed you had it on your wall lol. That aside, amazing video

  • @willfowls2400
    @willfowls2400 Рік тому +6

    Great video! Seeing the DCF built out from scratch helps me visualize the process and apply it in practice. Just curious, were estimated revenue growth, EBIT margin, D&A, etc. figures for 2022-2026 based on historical data in the sector? Or was it more of a forward-looking estimate based on sector growth, macroeconomic factors, etc.? Maybe a little bit of both? Any information on estimating forward-looking estimates of revenue growth, future margins, etc. is helpful. Thanks

    • @freerunner626
      @freerunner626 Рік тому +1

      great question, just watched the video and I has the same question when I noticed the forecasted revenues being hard coded

  • @bhargav1389
    @bhargav1389 2 роки тому

    Please make a video on advance topics as well. It kind a gives clear picture of DCF model otherwise learning part by part would be very confusing.

  • @nev6250
    @nev6250 2 роки тому +5

    Liquid, could you do a desk setup video sometime? Introducing your gadgets etc

    • @rareliquid
      @rareliquid  2 роки тому +1

      yup will be doing this in late august or early september

    • @nev6250
      @nev6250 2 роки тому

      @@rareliquid awesome! Looking forward to it man!

  • @Wacklewis
    @Wacklewis 2 роки тому +37

    Hi Ben, think there's a mistake in the Cost of Equity formula. In the slides it is RFR x Beta x (Exp Market Return - RFR) but in the excel it is RFR + (Beta x (Exp Market Return - RFR))

    • @willy60804
      @willy60804 2 роки тому +27

      The excel actually has the correct formula for cost of equity. It’s an error on the slides.

    • @apextamang2009
      @apextamang2009 Рік тому +1

      i also wanted to mention that .

    • @MartijnMols
      @MartijnMols 10 місяців тому

      CAPM

  • @AJRMediaAgency
    @AJRMediaAgency 2 роки тому

    Ofc you have more than 100k subscribers, you are sharing a wealth of knowledge here!

  • @y_limit_yourself
    @y_limit_yourself Рік тому +9

    @rareliquid Love your videos thanks for all your help! I'm a bit confused about how you get the projected revenue amounts and rates though, could you clarify where $525,188 and 11.8% are derived from?

  • @khattak1430
    @khattak1430 2 роки тому +1

    Hi rareliquid, this video was highly insightful.
    please do a video on M&A transaction/modeling as well.

  • @barryaherne215
    @barryaherne215 2 роки тому +2

    Nice! DCFs are a little intense for me, so I'll chip away at this over the week ✌️

  • @mattiovino3752
    @mattiovino3752 2 роки тому +3

    Love these follow along videos. Find them very helpful for learning the basics

  • @WeSnapple
    @WeSnapple Рік тому

    Rareliquid what are some better ways to understand what accounts are operating assets and liabilities? THis part gets me so hung up.

  • @zackd7597
    @zackd7597 2 місяці тому

    I understand WACC is used as a discount rate because it takes into account the riskiness of a business (higher WACC for riskier business). This is meant to reflect what kind of return we would expect if we were to invest in a company with the same risk level. However, that implies that equity is more risky than debt. How does that make sense if there is no requirement to repay equity theoretically like there is for debt? You don’t default for failure to repay equity.

  • @sudarshanravi3219
    @sudarshanravi3219 7 місяців тому

    There is a small mistake in the formula in the last line on slide on screen at 16.55.
    It should be --> Cost of equity = Risk free rate beta * (expected market return - risk free rate).
    Instead of --> Risk free rate beta * (expected market return - risk free rate)

  • @ShehrizadaShehrizada
    @ShehrizadaShehrizada 8 місяців тому +1

    Please , can u tell me ,bases on what you are doing assumptions in the beginning ? 11.8 % for 2022 ,how did you get this number ?

  • @Prosnipezzzz1
    @Prosnipezzzz1 2 роки тому +1

    Ben your literally a gem appreciate all work!!

  • @parthbhatt1226
    @parthbhatt1226 2 роки тому +1

    Thank you! Please also teach a thorough LBO model

  • @finnsheehan4590
    @finnsheehan4590 2 роки тому

    Hey Ben, any chance you would be able to make a quick video on finding the financials for this model? Great video.

  • @eddierosario1537
    @eddierosario1537 2 роки тому

    Man this really does help for us beginners

  • @adventureswithaustin11
    @adventureswithaustin11 27 днів тому

    saving me for accounting yessir thanks bro
    dropped a like and followed great stuff

  • @anthonydely4112
    @anthonydely4112 8 місяців тому

    where did you get the %growth rate ? I mean can you estimate it or is it based on the company's/ professional's assumptions ?

  • @abd1rhmn
    @abd1rhmn 3 місяці тому

    I have a quick question: how did you get the revenues of 2022 or its growth rate ?

  • @tripleqh
    @tripleqh 3 місяці тому

    just wanted to point out that in your step 2 slide, your formula for CoE = Rf * Beta * (expected return - Rf) and not an addition of the 2

  • @ameliasalsabila3253
    @ameliasalsabila3253 2 місяці тому

    thank you for your very good tutorial. I just wanna ask you, why on the excel from the J42-N50 we just using from 2022 until 2026?

  • @OttoBiography
    @OttoBiography Рік тому

    DUDE thank you so much for including the template.

  • @RicardoFlores-dc8kz
    @RicardoFlores-dc8kz 2 роки тому +2

    Awesome! Thank or the video
    Note: where did u find the Cash and Debt? I search on BS but data does not match.

    • @scotttan4333
      @scotttan4333 3 місяці тому

      Hi, I believe it isnt stated in the video but it should be Cash and Cash Equivalents in the balance Sheet. You should be taking the most recent value. As for debt use the same debt that you used to calculate the WACC

  • @xtxp5868
    @xtxp5868 3 місяці тому +1

    I dont get why he copied the values from the top table to the bottom DCF table. How do we predict/evaluate the future Revenue, EBIT, how did he get the growth % of the forecasted years?

  • @arnaudlouispotard8645
    @arnaudlouispotard8645 2 роки тому +2

    How do you find the growth rate on the forecast years ? (for the FCFF)

  • @LordikCZ
    @LordikCZ 2 роки тому +1

    Nice and clear explanation, only thing I miss is how we got the approximations of Revenue, CAPEX and Taxes in income statement section.

  • @코코넛-s5i
    @코코넛-s5i 2 роки тому +2

    This video was really helpful! Thank you so much.

  • @BNLien
    @BNLien 7 місяців тому

    Thank you very much for all the useful information, especially the how you answer interview question on DCF. I am wondering if you can do the similar thing with 3 statements models. I have done it but don't know how to put them into words and sumarization. Appreciate your reply.

  • @andrearusconi8802
    @andrearusconi8802 7 місяців тому

    Formula of CAPM (for the cost of equity) on the ppt is wrong, as correctly stated in the Excel. Minute 16.30

  • @cameronrobin_
    @cameronrobin_ 2 роки тому +1

    This video has been unbelievably helpful! Thanks so much! :)

  • @Commando303X
    @Commando303X Рік тому

    In computing free cash-flow, why would you wish to begin with E.B.I.T. rather than with net-income?

  • @benjaminli3808
    @benjaminli3808 2 роки тому +1

    I may have missed it but where do those projected growth values come from?

  • @jeancarlojimenezcondori8574
    @jeancarlojimenezcondori8574 10 місяців тому

    Thanks for Sharing. I liked it. I ve seen a theory where incorporate two concepts : SA( Surplus assets) and M ( Minority) to calculate Equity Value. What can you tell me about this ? Thanks in advance

  • @elenora-y2w
    @elenora-y2w 2 місяці тому

    Thanks for the forecast! I have a quick question: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). What's the best way to send them to Binance?

  • @indubitablyyeah338
    @indubitablyyeah338 2 роки тому +1

    Thanks man. Kinda forgot how to do this from Business school already 😂. 🍻

  • @jagadishpillai6350
    @jagadishpillai6350 4 місяці тому

    Hello sir could you please let me know the Tax rate which you are considering in WACC,from were you got that 21%.

  • @Reza_Audio
    @Reza_Audio Рік тому

    4:40 I guess in the first line of FCF calculation, you need to put operating income instead of EBIT while they are not the same, so the first line which will be NOPAT is calculated from Operating Income*(1- Tax rate)

  • @milapthakor3320
    @milapthakor3320 Рік тому

    Hey! You are considering market cap as equity value; Isn't that should be derived from balance sheet equity ?

  • @itsgoingtobelegenwaitforit8741

    Hey do you have a Video Where you explain step by step how make the assumptions? Would be awesome

  • @kaltiny1997
    @kaltiny1997 11 місяців тому

    Why isn’t cost of sales and sg&a expenses taken into consideration? Are they optional when valuing a company?

  • @atursunov225
    @atursunov225 Рік тому

    Dear, it was great representation of DCF. Please help me to download the DCF template. I can't download the template from the link.

  • @jamescurran1491
    @jamescurran1491 5 місяців тому +2

    16:35 I think there is a mistake. Cost of equity should be RFR + beta x (equity risk premium) if you're using CAPM.
    You have it multiplied by the RFR, not added to.

    • @RajvirSingh-o2f
      @RajvirSingh-o2f 3 місяці тому

      K = Rf + B( Rm )
      That is exactly what he did.

  • @odyssey9707
    @odyssey9707 2 роки тому

    What Is the step to finding the EBIT number , however. Did he just pull that off the consensus of analysts?

  • @zakiii3913
    @zakiii3913 2 роки тому +2

    Why do ALT E S F instead of CTRL R? Also ALT E S doesn't work for me.

  • @RichFlair310
    @RichFlair310 11 місяців тому

    Awesome videos dude! Have been working through your whole channel - congrats on Wharton!
    Question. In Step 1, why did you project D&A as a % of revenue instead of as a % of CapEx?

  • @rkt3898
    @rkt3898 Рік тому +1

    Where do I get TGR for calculating Terminal Value? Why can't I apply the difference in growth between year 2025 and year 2026? Please help

  • @dpl7259
    @dpl7259 2 місяці тому

    Thank you so much Ben, it will be really helpful for us.

  • @donaldduck4595
    @donaldduck4595 2 роки тому

    Hey Ben, I asked you about 2 weeks ago which keyboard you use. Ever since I got it my wristpain from working 10-12 hours a day went away almost completely. Thank you so much for the recommendation!🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
    Since I still got problems with my right hand, I wanted to ask which mouse you use😃

  • @yashmaurya3679
    @yashmaurya3679 2 роки тому

    Can you please also make videos on treasury stock method, comparable company analysis and precedent transaction analysis.

  • @lia55lee
    @lia55lee Рік тому

    thank you for showing this !! how do you make predicions for D&A ?

  • @Bens_ant_world
    @Bens_ant_world 5 місяців тому

    Hi, did you ever do a more exhaustive DCF video?

  • @aml-zq5mc
    @aml-zq5mc 2 роки тому +1

    Havent watched content like this since Pharma Boy

  • @annazaiceva5861
    @annazaiceva5861 2 роки тому

    Hey! This is very helpful! Can you pls do the sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis methodology?

  • @adilkhanyeslyambek2955
    @adilkhanyeslyambek2955 5 місяців тому

    Great video, Ben! Keep rocking

  • @viratverma3616
    @viratverma3616 2 роки тому

    Hey Ben, I have questions, why at @9:28 to get projected revenue why have you did this =previous (1+growth rate)? I want to know why we are adding one here (1+....)?

  • @whitenerds6863
    @whitenerds6863 2 роки тому

    Smh @UA-cam how is this man not verified yet????

  • @sandylink2283
    @sandylink2283 Рік тому

    At 9:02 into the video, you are going to line J14 in building out the growth rate but don't tell Us the formula you used for this line. How did you come up with the formula you used?

  • @erickjian7025
    @erickjian7025 Рік тому

    16:19 do you mean Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Risk Premium instead of *?

  • @JohnUsp
    @JohnUsp Рік тому

    How did you calculate all the Expected values for the future years? You just show the number, without explain did you figure out it.

  • @deathtrack15
    @deathtrack15 5 днів тому

    Which website do you use to get the income statement and balance sheet from?

  • @Risslo23
    @Risslo23 2 роки тому +1

    How or where do you find every data for the first step ? I mean the projecting revenue / the projecting EBIT / the projecting taxation rates etc ?

  • @youtubepremium2421
    @youtubepremium2421 2 роки тому +1

    Love your vids. My one question however is, how does a retail investor such as myself gain access to analyst forecasts for financial metrics? Bloomberg and FactSet are way out of my budget. Would appreciate it if you could share any alternatives which are more viable for retail investors such as myself. Thank you.

    • @regansun1629
      @regansun1629 2 роки тому +1

      You could also just forecast with your own assumptions based on historical data.

  • @dohlay7766
    @dohlay7766 2 роки тому

    Hi Ben, thanks a lot for this wonderful video ! I am doing my Masters degree and now quite interested in the wealth management private banking division, what would you recommend to prepare for this position

  • @lucasbanega_
    @lucasbanega_ 2 роки тому +1

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge in these kind of video. It's very useful! I have a question. How can I calculate the TGR? And, can I replace the WACC with a discount rate? For example, 15% instead of the Wacc. Thanks!

    • @rareliquid
      @rareliquid  2 роки тому +1

      tgr is usually rate of growth of economy and so for US companies, around 2-3%. and wacc is same thing as discount rate!

  • @EvEnPvP
    @EvEnPvP Рік тому

    Awsome video! How do you automatically get data for a new company into the same excel sheet? Or do you have to do it manually? Thanks

  • @videos-qh1gg
    @videos-qh1gg 2 роки тому +1

    Hey Ben, thank you so much for this incredibly insightful video. I have a question though: If the change in networking capital is already negative, don't we add it instead of subtracting? Thanks :)

  • @keithleyjarvis5663
    @keithleyjarvis5663 2 роки тому

    Do mind sharing the slides with the steps and points you used in the video?

  • @Pietsuttaja
    @Pietsuttaja 2 роки тому +1

    Good stuff. Keep em’ comin!

  • @MuhammadArifurRahman-gj2mg
    @MuhammadArifurRahman-gj2mg 5 місяців тому

    Can you explain how did you get TGR?

  • @elyfal6586
    @elyfal6586 2 роки тому

    Great video, mate. Very well simplified :)

  • @rounakmahakul8586
    @rounakmahakul8586 8 місяців тому

    The subtitles are not available for the video, kindly have a look on the same. Thanks, subtitles would also be really helpful.

  • @Cleisthenes607
    @Cleisthenes607 Рік тому

    What do you do if a company has negative cashflows?