Hey Bryan, nice insightful look at the recent data. Just wanted to let you know you've got a short bit of dropout of your audio between 18:04 to 18:35.
I’m so sorry! What I said at 18:04 was something like this: “Winner: Thalamus. A few years ago, I thought Thalamus - a Silicon Valley startup founded by a former resident - was going to be the disruptive innovator that would upend the AAMC’s near monopoly on the residency application market. Their interview scheduling software was better than ERAS’s Interview Explorer - so I figured once they acquired enough market share (or startup capital), Thalamus would pivot into application software and challenge ERAS directly. So I was as surprised as anyone when the AAMC announced a strategic collaboration in which they agreed to provide Thalamus’ interview scheduling software to ERAS users free of charge. It seemed like Darth Vader contracting with the Rebel Alliance to fix the Death Star’s exhaust port. Of course, not long after the AAMC-Thalamus venture was announced, OB-GYN programs announced their plan to leave ERAS for the 2024-2025 application season. So did Thalamus bet on the wrong horse? I don’t think so.”
To the point of decreasing MD graduation rates, there is a chance it could be correlated towards Step 1 going P/F that is delaying students from graduating. Not sure why this is specific to MD schools in particular, but that would seem to be the only cause that matches within the timeline to result in decrease in graduation rates. N=1 but I can say that that is the case from speaking with my peers
Maybe… but you’d think that, if students were just *delaying* graduation, they’d eventually turn up in the ERAS/NRMP data (i.e., a drop one year would be offset by an increase in the next year’s class). For decreases to persist over multiple years, I feel like there has to be an increase in the number of students who *never* apply to residency (increased attrition? completely nonclinical careers?).
@@sheriffofsodiumyeah, the medical education system is failing bright MD students, who are most often overworked, sacrificed so much to get what? 7-11 more years of training to have the same standard of living (if it gets close to that) of a mid level google engineer? even though it was their passion to get into clinical practice initially. It’s unnecessarily long, competitive (post-matriculation) and ridiculously unfair. MD schools are unfortunately increasing in number of students that think this way. People go to places where they are appreciated, and MD students going into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt for what? There’s nothing to mistake here, due to burnout, MD graduates are going into careers where they are more appreciated. How do you justify a newly graduated RN, or a PA, or AA or NP making more than a full fledged resident doctor? Don’t mention attending salary, as there’s a gradual and definite decease in them when adjusted for inflation. So, I’m asking, why would the best and the brightest of us, MD students, would put themselves through that? Do they sacrifice themselves to “fulfill” their social duty, even if it comes at the direct detriment of their physical and mental health?
In regards to the decrease in FM applications, is there a possibility that applicants may not be applying to FM simply because they know it's considered a 'SOAP' into specialty. Therefore, if an applicant was interested in FM as a backup specialty, there is less incentive both financially and time-wise to apply if there are so many unfilled positions, which may point to why not many apply. Along the same point, I would love if ERAS came out with dual applicant data and see if there were a way to show which applications came from applicants applying to two different specialties
Agree on the need for real dual-applicant data. The AAMC has resisted doing that (likely for self-interested reasons). I’m sure they would resist identifying applicants who dual-applied for similar reasons. I think the reason FM applications is down is organic. If you swapped the average compensation of an anesthesiologist or radiologist with the average compensation of a family physician, U.S. MDs would flock to FM (as they have recently to anesthesiology and radiology). Obviously, many factors go into specialty choice and some individuals would make the same decision regardless of the salary - but in the aggregate, economic incentives matter. (You can see the strong correlation between a specialty’s average compensation and the proportion of positions that are filled by U.S. MDs.) If an applicant were willing to do FM as a backup, and they asked me for advice - I’d strongly encourage them to apply now rather than waiting for the SOAP. The most desirable FM positions will fill in the Match, and it’s nice to be able to carefully evaluate multiple programs rather than having to make a time-pressured decision in the SOAP.
Hard to know. It could be that there’s more optimism about the future RadOnc job market. Or it could just be that these are backup applicants from DR/IR, etc.
@@sheriffofsodium My guess is the first one (anecdotally, the RadOncs I've talked to don't seem concerned about the job market) combined with ASTRO supporting/promoting more outreach to and engagement with students, much of which is being led/organized by current trainees. I don't know how much of the the "job market" discussion includes other financial or economic factors, but my (very naïve) take is that encroachment by private equity and the ongoing back-and-forth with Medicare about payment models are more important than absolute job numbers.
Hi Dr. Sodium, EM 2024 applicant here. Ive learned so much by watching your video. Thank you for putting out those great content. Just want to hear your honest opinion on the EM match this year. Do you think it will be a tough match if I have 16 interviews in total?
Sounds like you are in GREAT shape, my friend. Remember, interviewing applicants is time-consuming and expensive: programs don’t waste time interviewing applicants they have no intention of ranking. (In fact, many programs rank all the applicants they interview.) If you interview well, I think it is very, very likely that you’ll match this year.
Thank you for the inspiring response, Dr. Sodium. I watched very closely to your video and chart and noticed that there is a significant increase of EM applicants this year (close to pre-EM stuggle years). Should I be worried about this trend? Although most increase comes from the IMG group, is it gonna affect my chance of matching if I am aiming for some reputable programs like Duke, Baylor, Cornell?
Hey Bryan, nice insightful look at the recent data. Just wanted to let you know you've got a short bit of dropout of your audio between 18:04 to 18:35.
I’m so sorry! What I said at 18:04 was something like this:
“Winner: Thalamus.
A few years ago, I thought Thalamus - a Silicon Valley startup founded by a former resident - was going to be the disruptive innovator that would upend the AAMC’s near monopoly on the residency application market.
Their interview scheduling software was better than ERAS’s Interview Explorer - so I figured once they acquired enough market share (or startup capital), Thalamus would pivot into application software and challenge ERAS directly.
So I was as surprised as anyone when the AAMC announced a strategic collaboration in which they agreed to provide Thalamus’ interview scheduling software to ERAS users free of charge. It seemed like Darth Vader contracting with the Rebel Alliance to fix the Death Star’s exhaust port.
Of course, not long after the AAMC-Thalamus venture was announced, OB-GYN programs announced their plan to leave ERAS for the 2024-2025 application season. So did Thalamus bet on the wrong horse?
I don’t think so.”
To the point of decreasing MD graduation rates, there is a chance it could be correlated towards Step 1 going P/F that is delaying students from graduating. Not sure why this is specific to MD schools in particular, but that would seem to be the only cause that matches within the timeline to result in decrease in graduation rates. N=1 but I can say that that is the case from speaking with my peers
Maybe… but you’d think that, if students were just *delaying* graduation, they’d eventually turn up in the ERAS/NRMP data (i.e., a drop one year would be offset by an increase in the next year’s class). For decreases to persist over multiple years, I feel like there has to be an increase in the number of students who *never* apply to residency (increased attrition? completely nonclinical careers?).
@@sheriffofsodiumyeah, the medical education system is failing bright MD students, who are most often overworked, sacrificed so much to get what? 7-11 more years of training to have the same standard of living (if it gets close to that) of a mid level google engineer? even though it was their passion to get into clinical practice initially. It’s unnecessarily long, competitive (post-matriculation) and ridiculously unfair. MD schools are unfortunately increasing in number of students that think this way. People go to places where they are appreciated, and MD students going into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt for what? There’s nothing to mistake here, due to burnout, MD graduates are going into careers where they are more appreciated. How do you justify a newly graduated RN, or a PA, or AA or NP making more than a full fledged resident doctor? Don’t mention attending salary, as there’s a gradual and definite decease in them when adjusted for inflation. So, I’m asking, why would the best and the brightest of us, MD students, would put themselves through that? Do they sacrifice themselves to “fulfill” their social duty, even if it comes at the direct detriment of their physical and mental health?
thank you
appreciate the effort
Thank you for taking the time to listen.
In regards to the decrease in FM applications, is there a possibility that applicants may not be applying to FM simply because they know it's considered a 'SOAP' into specialty. Therefore, if an applicant was interested in FM as a backup specialty, there is less incentive both financially and time-wise to apply if there are so many unfilled positions, which may point to why not many apply.
Along the same point, I would love if ERAS came out with dual applicant data and see if there were a way to show which applications came from applicants applying to two different specialties
Agree on the need for real dual-applicant data. The AAMC has resisted doing that (likely for self-interested reasons). I’m sure they would resist identifying applicants who dual-applied for similar reasons.
I think the reason FM applications is down is organic. If you swapped the average compensation of an anesthesiologist or radiologist with the average compensation of a family physician, U.S. MDs would flock to FM (as they have recently to anesthesiology and radiology). Obviously, many factors go into specialty choice and some individuals would make the same decision regardless of the salary - but in the aggregate, economic incentives matter. (You can see the strong correlation between a specialty’s average compensation and the proportion of positions that are filled by U.S. MDs.)
If an applicant were willing to do FM as a backup, and they asked me for advice - I’d strongly encourage them to apply now rather than waiting for the SOAP. The most desirable FM positions will fill in the Match, and it’s nice to be able to carefully evaluate multiple programs rather than having to make a time-pressured decision in the SOAP.
@@sheriffofsodium I agree that compensation is a huge factor, although you will never catch a med student saying that.
Why the high mean applications per applicant for radiology this year? Lower signaling compared to other specialties with 20+?
Why is Rad Onc up this year, even for USMD applicants?
Hard to know. It could be that there’s more optimism about the future RadOnc job market. Or it could just be that these are backup applicants from DR/IR, etc.
@@sheriffofsodium
My guess is the first one (anecdotally, the RadOncs I've talked to don't seem concerned about the job market) combined with ASTRO supporting/promoting more outreach to and engagement with students, much of which is being led/organized by current trainees.
I don't know how much of the the "job market" discussion includes other financial or economic factors, but my (very naïve) take is that encroachment by private equity and the ongoing back-and-forth with Medicare about payment models are more important than absolute job numbers.
As an FM resident all I can say is
OOOF
I never imagined IMG applicants would decrease by this much over the course of few years. Astonishing
Hi Dr. Sodium,
EM 2024 applicant here. Ive learned so much by watching your video. Thank you for putting out those great content. Just want to hear your honest opinion on the EM match this year. Do you think it will be a tough match if I have 16 interviews in total?
Sounds like you are in GREAT shape, my friend. Remember, interviewing applicants is time-consuming and expensive: programs don’t waste time interviewing applicants they have no intention of ranking. (In fact, many programs rank all the applicants they interview.) If you interview well, I think it is very, very likely that you’ll match this year.
Thank you for the inspiring response, Dr. Sodium. I watched very closely to your video and chart and noticed that there is a significant increase of EM applicants this year (close to pre-EM stuggle years). Should I be worried about this trend? Although most increase comes from the IMG group, is it gonna affect my chance of matching if I am aiming for some reputable programs like Duke, Baylor, Cornell?
A bit of a high pitch beep in the background, otherwise great video
Sorry. Making graphs and hot takes is more my area of expertise than video production. Thanks for listening.