you must have shorted nvdia, AI hasn't really taken off, majority of people have never tried chatgpt, but to say that demand is slow is funny, who knows how governments are going to use AI, it will be in ways we can't imagine,
Naturally Nvidia, the one NOT training an AI Model comes out saying advancements will keep coming. They sell the product that every AI company needs to advance. The only skin in the game Nvidia has is to keep selling chips.
NVIDIA has nothing to gain by lying to their AI chip customers. You can't tell a carpenter he needs more wood when he doesn't. But they could be trying to fool the stock market.
Only stupid people would listen to tech CEOs and businessmen or portfolio managers etc. for engineering advices. Yet this practice has been going on constantly for years. People in the research community have been facepalming ourselves regarding Elon Musk's absurd claims and stupid comments since 2015. These business / marketing / fundraiser people have no expertise but instead full of conflict of interest. It's so stupid that people keep listening to them. I'm guessing it's more for entertainment value then anything intellectual.
Takling of AI, though the perspective of many people remains that, NVDA is the "Stock of the year.". I am skeptical about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I have allocated $190k for investments, still looking for companies to make additions and to boost market performance.
There's definitely great potential in both staking and yield farming for earning passive income. Given the complexity and volatility of these methods, find a financial advisor who can help you understand the nuances and provide proper entry and exit points to optimize your strategy while managing risk.
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That's the problem Machine learning is used in very specific situtations & setup for specific business cases. But the Tech industry tried to sell it as a major "tech revolution" that will change the world....
It can change the world in other fields. Deep Learning even more so. But the issue is that other-domain experts don’t know enough to apply and customize the models for their data.
Software bros are used to exponential scaling because once you make a well-coded program, you can sell it or rent it at no incremental cost. The problem with AI is that it requires physical infrastructure to scale, and constructing data centers, GPU’s, transmission lines, power plants, etc. definitely does not scale exponentially.
Hm I as a "softwarebro" think that improvement is not linear, -> it's log. The more (interconnecting) features a software has the slower the improvement ("in all dimensions the software can scale"). If you are at the start you think everything is exponential, the more experience you get, the more you see improvement is logerithmic, even with your own learning... And I think the "logerithmic improvement" is a fundamental law... You also have this in biology, in the expansion of the universe (when you see it as a 3d cube) and what so ever.
That is a silly, and frankly misinformed take. And what's with this marginalizing propaganda "software bros" insinuation? knock that nonsense off right now. That's not how exponential scaling works. You need to look into the explanation that Ray Kurzweil gives on how technology always builds on itself exponentially, regardless of factors like infrastructure. Additionally, AI will soon be put to use on improving it's own underlying systems, and when that starts, we'll see huge leaps just in efficiency improvements alone, without much change to infrastructure, tho that will come too.
The hype is IT business in a nutshell. There's always hype, lots of investors and money, then the inevitable crash... sometimes out comes actually something useful as a result, most proceed towards the new hype train.
I Mean everyone hypes. Companys like tesla do the same to get investors. Alot of content creators do the same when it comes to tech like ai. You can just search on youtube to see so many ppl haviing opinons or hyping it up. Its just how society works in 2024. Its just not big media company, but everyone does it. Dosent matter if its real or not.
This isn't what happens. It's a profit making structure, senior management & executives respond to metrics so they push what gets clicks & responses from people like you. There is no Mr Media who planned something.
Of course, Jensen Huang is going to say that the larger the brain, the smarter the computer. He’s selling the chips that they’re using to make the brain. The bigger the brain, the more his company profits. The guys that are denying that there is a “wall“ are the ones who are the most heavily invested in this technology, and who have been hyping the snot out of it. I’m really skeptical. I think there’s a bubble about to burst. If that happens, while the other potential economic problems we face, we could be in a lot of trouble.
Should I short Nvidia now? I shorted a year ago and the puts are worthless now lol. I thought the hype would die out 2 years ago. Is it finally time for the hype to die? I guess Nvidia is going to drop like a rock after one bad quarterly financial report? But will that be next year? Year after? It's a matter of time but it's really difficult to time the market
Here's the secret in computer science: measuring "orders of magnitudes", meaning significant breakthroughs or advancements, can only happen at the algorithm level, not the compute level. The calculation for program complexity (big-O) is at the algorithms and scales linearly with compute. So if you want more advancement than a simple linear one, you have to change your algorithm, not your computing power. LLM and Deep Neural Net were two algorithmic advancements that brought about this AI boom, but there has been very few new algorithmic breakthroughs since. And, AI algos are not directly solving the solution, it just produces another machine that takes guesses. So it's actually worse because even if you can harness great computing power to run your LLM generation, you have no direct control about the output machine (output algorithm), so even if you are able to create a better say dimension extraction algorithm, it doesn't help you. Similarly, even if you were able to create your LLM in 3 days instead of 10 days (with faster compute), the quality of the LLM may not have improved at all. So NVidia is basically a snake oil salesman trying to convince you that building LLMs faster will produce better LLMs. It's just not guaranteed.
That's right. I think people barely know how AI works, so they only improve the capabilities at the computational level rather than the algorithmic level which is the root. And it is even harder to find other algorithms.
I still don't think so. Even if they use the best data available. Since AI relies on human input, it can't evolve at the same pace as humans. AI can't think outside the box. I still doubt they can create something that complex.
@RodrickPerkins-d8d if you were to write code, you could see that you can’t let it do everything and it still does a lot of garbage. To be honest, the improvement from 6 months ago and now, is less than 20%. You still need to supervise it, so I wouldn’t let it make “itself better”, only if i wanna make it worse
No, there's just less REPEATED information on Stack overflow coz the same solutions is provided by AI. The amount of useful unique information stays the same
thats a none issue tho as new models are mostly trained on synthetic data and the best small model (phi-4) is nearly exclusively trained with synthetic data meaning no internet no stolen code no stackoverflow
This makes zero sense. If an ai can solve a problem with an answer that is not on stack overflow then does it really need to have the stackoverflow training data?? Also remember that regardless of ethics, all public ais today are training on the problems that you come up with and the answers it gives to those problems. And a third thing to mention is synthetic data. The new llms and ais that exist today are trained on data created by other ais and contrary to expectation, this is an improvement in some ways compared to training on human data and the internet.
There is only so much data in the world to train these models. Some companies are already trying to train AI models with the output of other AI models and they wind up cannibalizing themselves. Without vast quantities of more data there will be no more leaps forward in generative AI. Anyone saying otherwise is afraid they will lose their investor funding.
@@_ShaDynasty our brain is the CPU needed very less energy and different type of computation. Due to multistate computing we have a different level of understanding of nature than AI
@@priteshpatil5363AI as we know it has evolved. No one in the 70s could have imagined the reality of the technology that we have today. It's ignorant to think that technology won't keep evolving
It is more a problem for the world than a solution to anything. It would have been fine if progress stopped a few months ago, so it could just remain more of a tool
@@dabbingraccoons6416 people like you were saying “oh don’t make cars replace horses they will cause more accidents” you don’t think about progressing humanity as a whole. A world with ai is better than a world without it.
@Aripoma There's a lot of things controlled by AI today. From navigation like Google Maps, machine translation of novels, and agriculture. I even read an article couple of months ago that AI is being used to create and formulate medicines
AI stocks will dominate 2025 and Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made
I think the there was initial enthusiasm among general public in the beginning because of media hype, but now it's waning , because people realise thatthe actual day-to-day use of AI in real life is too limited.
AI has a scaling issue to much energy consumption and no infrastructure in place to support increasingly larger models with increasing levels of usage by corporations and the general public. Not to mention the data bottle neck that was mentioned is real as well.
Everything plateaus. Tech industry goes as fast and hard as they can, if new phones and tech don't feel innovative anymore it's because the cycle ended until the next big thing which might come in many years. LLMs are way too expensive as well, so there's the money factor.
As someone who has been working as AI researcher in the past decades, it's frustrating that these business dudes and stupid reporters keep hyping the expectation beyond reality. Behind the scene, researchers and professors are still doing the work that advances the field continuously, just not at the unrealistic rate the media and business dudes have been trying to spin. Unfortunately the general public get fooled by these marketing pros/business dudes who are good at generating hypes and lies. Now the is slowly starting to realize that they are being fooled and now they thought that the actual work behind the scene aren't progressing. That's also untrue. The actual research are still progressing, regardless of the hype or the rude awakening of the media.
Computers are nothing New to Humanity. PC was improved home computer access in privacy. Even after Billions of Transactions, it is not even close to being conscious, let alone decisions. How the assistant is useful.
We're not sure yet what it's capable of, things can be exaggerated as well as having statements from the company saying it still made mistakes that a human can easily recognise. On top of that it is insanely expensive to run, more so than o1, so scaling was somewhat of an issue. Lastly o1 was never analyzed and tested for the same scores so we don't know how big that jump really was.
Plus the mathematics part, the test consisted of three sectors, sector 3 being the hardest so we're not sure just how much it really improved cause it was given more time and easy questions as well.
No new LLM model has had the same "exponential" improvement compared to the first publicly release GPT model. It's always been small and incremental since the first release. The only "exponential" increase has been in investment. Unfortunately all that investment has been diverted from other projects in organisations that could have had a far bigger impact.
I'm honestly shocked that a professional reporter would describe anything that ChatGPT does as "understanding" or "reasoning". It's your job to learn how these things work and then confer that information to the public. You've failed step one.
I LOVE how, over the last 2 years, EVERY time the media starts putting out segments like this.. A week or so later we see a major development in AI that blows such doubts out of the water.. Then a few months go by, and they'll repeat it all over again.
I don’t know that I agree. If you follow AI technology very closely you might feel the advancements are “slowing down” merely because there was a period of time that AI news stories were more frequent than they have been lately. As someone with a background in Computer Science I can say that there are many many ways current technology (without further AI breakthroughs) can still be repurposed for many many more applications. There is also lots of room for adoption of the technology to be expanded. With that being said I don’t expect research or advancements to stop anytime soon. There are many reasons that we really shouldn’t be in a rush to accelerate this technology because it will be immensely disruptive and impact society in significant ways. Despite this, we do seem to be locked in an “AI race” of sorts because no business or country wants to be left in the dust while someone else takes the lead.
We’ve been here before, what’s interesting is to wait to see the range of applications that can be built with existing models. More efforts need to be placed on efficiency so that these companies can realize some profits.
The intelligence part may be slow down, but the model size is getting smaller. Now smaller model has similar kind of intelligence like big model 2 years back.
They have learnt the patterns and store as minimal form as embeddings . Models are something which has learnt patterns and repeat those patterns if prompted . Patterns must include intelligence
00:03 Is AI progress slowing as expectations rise? 01:57 AI advancements are showing signs of slowing down. 03:41 AI advancements may be plateauing despite significant investments. 05:15 Debate exists on whether AI progress is slowing or continuing to scale. 07:10 AI advancements may stall due to data limitations and quality issues. 08:36 Post-training advancements in AI require significant computation and innovation. 10:12 AI innovation may slow, but unutilized potential drives further exploration. 11:55 AI advancements are currently impacting various industries through agentic software.
In my opinion, businesses often initiate optimization efforts when the learning curve is relatively low. Additionally, businesses tend to expand into other domains only once the growth of their current product segment has plateaued or when future growth prospects are significantly lower compared to previous year’s growth rates. These business tactics are employed by CEOs to maintain investor interest as well as buzz around them and enhance revenue from alternative segments.
Frontier model performance on the GPQA Diamond benchmark consisting of PhD level questions, went from 20% to 70% in the past year. To call a peak at this moment is so far off the mark. Truly gratuitous expectations. Perhaps we can blame the quarterly earnings cadence. We are seeing breakthroughs monthly - odd that so many don’t recognize the macro arc.
Lmao these advancements aren't cheap and require lots of money and these are paid by investors hoping for a return on their capital. If the AI funding dries up, so will the momentum of new breakthroughs. Also current LLM is training on past models and answers what breakthroughs need are new answers which LLM aren't simply equipped to do. Instead the real breakthroughs are alogrithims of codes written by scientists to test a theory until LLM can write a new Algo, it's just regurgitating what is on the web.
Good summary of the current status. My guess is that the current method of scaling will be fundamentally limited because it has been requiring an order of magnitude more data and computation to result in a material improvement, and that clearly is hitting limits. But, even with that it still may result in some powerful targeted solutions. However to advance general AI, a breakthrough in the general approach may be needed… and it’s anyone’s guess if and when that may happen.
The thing with Nvidia’s GPUs is that they are used for more than just AI. There are 2 major drivers of demand. AI and accelerated computing. Demand will continue to outstrip supply.
Peaked maybe not the right word, but agreed slowing down. Use cases have for AI to catch up to chip development, and most non business consumers are not using AI as much as hyped.
we haven’t hit a wall, and exponential progress will continue. ironically, Gemini 2.0 flash came out right after this video was uploaded and it was an insanely big update. Gemini 2.0 Pro will be even better. GPT 4.5 is releasing very soon and Orion should be releasing sometime next year. we have not hit a wall of any sort.
While some may wonder if AI progress is slowing down, the evidence tells a different story. We’re not just pushing performance with raw computing power-innovation is happening everywhere. New hardware, like Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, will set new standards in efficiency and speed in 2025. Frontier models like ChatGPT O1 (Pro) and Gemini 2 show that quality and creativity keep getting better at an impressive rate. Meanwhile, companies like Meta are shrinking models that once required massive servers into models that fit into the premium consumer market, as seen with Llama 3.3. Beyond just hardware, we’re seeing a surge in user-friendly tools and frameworks that make building advanced AI solutions easier than ever. Instead of slowing down, AI is branching out and becoming more accessible, more intelligent, and more versatile. The real challenge isn’t about AI hitting a ceiling-it’s about whether people are prepared to keep up. Many don’t have the skills or the desire to adapt. Without embracing new learning and development, they risk being left behind. Given my humble familiarity with this field, I see no reason to expect a dull AI year or an AI winter in 2025.
Ahh yes, the tech sector scrabbling around for every bit of funding they can get! The same with the metaverse, with NFT's, Crypto, and now "AI" no endgame... just gimmicks
@@MrMishal03 Imagine a society where AI stops improving, and things remain the same as they are today. A world where corporations control everything, practically making it impossible for people to afford basic necessities. Medical advancements are pretty much non-existent, and children die from diseases like cancer that an advanced AI would be able to cure in the future for everyone. babies and mothers die from miscarriages. People age and die every day, and many don’t want to, which an AI could solve. Alzheimer’s, arthritis, dementia, diabetes, etc plague the population, and everyone is stuck in a never-ending job cycle, all while global warming is constantly heating up the planet and humans can’t come up with a solution or invent something that reverses it before it gets irreversible. This is not the future we want. AI can revolutionize our lives and make the world a better place. We can live in a world where everything can be automated, and humans can freely pursue any hobby we want. A world where every disease or condition is easily treated and cured. you don’t have to die from aging if you do not want to, food, water, and resources are abundant, and global warming is reversed, all solved by an advanced enough AI system. Instead of fearing the unknown, be optimistic. we have a great future ahead of us with AI advancements. just please, don’t be a Luddite. I don’t know if these fears about AI come from scary unrealistic dystopian movies, books, and games where the AI randomly gains consciousness and turns evil for no reason, but you have to remember that these are literally just works of fiction. the future relies on the improvement of AI.
@@MrMishal03 Imagine a society where AI stops improving, and things remain the same as they are today. A world where corporations control everything, practically making it impossible for people to afford housing and other basic necessities. Medical advancements are pretty much non-existent, and children die from diseases like cancer that an advanced AI would be able to cure in the future for everyone. babies and mothers die from miscarriages. People age and die every day, and many don’t want to, which an AI could solve. there are so many people who are paralyzed from the neck down, or are amputated, or are missing one or both eyes, or are deaf, suffering from their condition everyday, when brain computer chips and artificial body parts developed by a highly intelligent AI could completely solve these. Alzheimer’s, arthritis, dementia, diabetes, etc plague the population, and everyone is stuck in a never-ending job cycle, all while global warming is constantly heating up the planet and humans can’t come up with a solution or invent something that reverses it before it gets irreversible. THAT is dystopian. This is not the future we want. AI can revolutionize our lives and make the world a better place. We can live in a world where everything can be automated, and humans can freely pursue any hobby we want. A world where every disease or condition is easily treated and cured. you don’t have to die from aging if you do not want to, food, water, and resources are abundant, and global warming is reversed, all solved by an advanced enough AI system. Instead of fearing the unknown, be optimistic. we have a great future ahead of us with AI advancements. just please, don’t be a Luddite.
"not expected" - anyone with a single brain cell could see that it was all just hype, such systems can never be reliable enough even for simple tasks, let alone become smart enough to become "AGI". More data and computation can't make it smarter
Okay, but how many people actually want or care about AI? So far all I've seen, heard, and experienced is that companies pushing these "AI" systems has just been annoying, pointless, and frustrating.
A lot of times it seems like it’s there to provide solutions to problems that never existed in the first place. I don’t want AI to write or draw something for me because I want what I say and create to come from me, not a machine.
@@zero-jeewe care about what you want ? You are not the the customet those company are interested. People like me who want to make adaptation or video without having go do 5 years of art school or have to pay someone are the one those company are interested in.
@gakukilegrandgenerale2354 So, the companies are interested in talentless uncreative weirdos who feel like they're destined to be the next big name in art?
@@mineralwasser6888 300 million mostly free users. see how many left when they start charging 200 per month. none of the AI companies are making any profit.
I remember over a decade ago reading about Generative AI making Rembrandt paintings. When you know the full timeline it might change how you see it's progress.
From what I know llm is just training data at a large scale. It's like how many pictures of cats do you have to show the computer before it knows what a cat looks like. The best way to understand the problem is the idea from Benedict Evans when he said " right there trying to make it to space in a propeller plane"
i love how when the newscaster says "not everyone agrees with this" we get a voice sample of Nvidia CEO... Time will eventually tell, but these guys will have gotten filfthy rich in the meantime.
Such as? The best AI can do right now is take over a small amount of menial tasks. We've been promised large scale application for years but these companies have nothing to show for it except massive losses.
Agree with you in my own experience, I have come to know it's risky and not profitable to hold coins while waiting for the Bull Run. Trading in financial markets has become a lucrative way of making money
Venturing into the stock market as a newbie was very difficult due to lack of experience, which resulted in losing funds... But Mary Jane, restored, hopes she's a good woman
Technology on a whole has stagnated. 1983-1995 we went from 8-bit home computers running off floppy disks to 32-bit PCs with harddrives, we went from video games with crude 2D sprites to full color 3D graphics, we went from phone modems to the world wide web. 1995-2007 we stepped up to laptops, smartphones, games with full HD graphics, online shopping and social media. 2007-2024 we still have laptops and smartphones, we still have Windows and Playstation and UA-cam.
It might seem like technology has stagnated, but while the most visible consumer products like smartphones and laptops have evolved incrementally, there's been tremendous innovation under the surface between 2007 and 2024. Here are a few examples: 1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI technologies like deep learning, natural language processing (e.g., GPT models), and computer vision have matured. AI is now integrated into everyday tools like voice assistants, real-time translation, and even medical diagnostics. 2. Cloud Computing and Data: The explosion of cloud infrastructure (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure) has revolutionized how companies deploy and manage data, enabling more rapid scaling, automation, and the delivery of services worldwide. 3. Quantum Computing: While still in early stages, quantum computing is seeing breakthroughs that could lead to exponentially faster computing for tasks that are impossible for classical computers. 4. 5G and IoT: The rollout of 5G is set to enable faster wireless communication, essential for the growth of the Internet of Things (IoT), which includes smart cities, autonomous vehicles, and connected devices that create new efficiencies. 5. Renewable Energy & Electric Vehicles: The efficiency of solar power and the mass production of electric vehicles (like Tesla) are reshaping transportation and energy sectors, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 6. CRISPR and Biotech: Advances in biotechnology, particularly with CRISPR gene-editing tools, have opened doors to new medical treatments, agricultural innovations, and ethical debates. Although some consumer tech may feel familiar (smartphones, laptops), the foundational shifts in fields like AI, quantum computing, and biotech are likely to lead to future breakthroughs that aren't yet fully visible.
you literally could not be more wrong. the world from 2007 to today changed completely, arguably more than the other periods of time you listed. I feel like you’re trolling
The problem is the lack of data it is the quality of the data. So you can give a model more data and more computing power but if the data isn’t clean or more likely contradictory to other data already in the model it is going to cause the model to become less accurate. That I believe is now happening.
Where are those who were predicting the end of software engineering jobs, claiming that AI would replace them? Anyone with a basic understanding of LLMs knows their limitations
But there isn't agents yet, and low cost agents to run. What you are talking about, chatbots? 😂 Anthropic gains in coding this year was very very remarkable.
@@GARRAFONAZOALPEPE when Devine AI announced they had a model to replace software engineers, they also had a software engineering position open on their website 🤣🤣, good luck with that
@@GARRAFONAZOALPEPESoftware engineering goes beyond coding-it involves system design and complex debugging, where LLMs often fall short. They assist but can’t replace the expertise needed for these critical tasks.
@@zackthebest629 hiring software engineers to build AI doesn’t mean their jobs aren’t at risk… it’s just how tech progresses. Engineers create the tools that can eventually replace them, like factory workers did with automation. AI like Codex already automates coding and debugging and as it improves fewer engineers will be needed to handle the same work. Entry and mid-level roles are especially at risk, even if niche, high-level jobs remain. AI won’t just assist… it’s poised to replace many, just like automation has in other industries.
That doesn't make sense... quantum computing highly specialized in what problems it can solve... and intelligence is not one of them. Sci-Fi tools strung together does not make them work.
Honestly, a lot of open source models are already good enough to replace jobs that don’t really require a lot of “intelligence”. You don’t need true artificial intelligence to change the world just like you don’t need a perpetual motion to drive a car.
A.I for consumers is overhyped as hell, still in the uncanny valley stage for images and voice although it fools some people, data needs to be watched for abnormal results, data coming from other internet websites ect. A.I will continue to improve but is nothing like they tried to sell to people better stick to the business side although ethic concerns also arises, i very much dislike robots and chat bots from customers services.
Giganormous copyright infringement, energy consumption and resources, for limited usefulness without talking about how often and badly they hallucinate
Can't believe the 'technology' which had to ingest the entire Internet's contents in order to cosplay as an exceptionally stupid fourth grader is hitting a plateau.
Models like ChatGPT-4o or the latest Claude are exceptionally smart. The only improvements needed are fine-tuning their reasoning and extending the context window. Compared to ChatGPT-4 or 3.5 from a year ago, the earlier versions now seem significantly outdated. Today, I analyzed legal topics with GPT before consulting my lawyer, and my lawyer provided the exact same analysis. I would even rate GPT as more skilled and far better at analytical thinking. 😂
You cant really compare the two. Self driving cars dont have general intelligence and the ability to be applied in almost any industry or problem on earth. Also there are so many ways we could improve ai like computer architecture, more energy, algorithmic improvements, specialized computer architecture, better data, machine learning/ai algorithms, improvements to software, and new paradigms.
This is just how tech advancement works. It’s the individual breakthroughs and small advances punctuating periods with seemingly slow progress. LLMs have been a big step but we will look back on it as low hanging fruit. New methods are being experimented with and research continues in the background. The next development is coming. Photonic chips for example.
Yeah, the problem is people think these advancements will hit every other year, which probably won't happen... as we've seen in other more laid out scientific fields, the low hanging fruit drops like flies fast, but the top takes allot longer.
Photonic chips, quantum computing and are cool and all but that is going to take time. The real advancements that we and the media should be looking at are shifts in ml/ai paradigms, computer architecturr improvements, energy efficiency, more energy, algorithmic improvements, and software improvements.
I still remember my CEO laying off a whole product development team just because we had new AI tools to help us. What he forgot was those AI tools weren't perfect and the code provided by those tools required rigorous testing before deploying it to the production. Oh he also came up with an idea of building our own proprietary AI sevices forgetting that he had only 2 sound developers , no cash to burn for acquiring expensive GPUs and experienced AI engineers to assist us .
I expect a lot of collaboration between AI companies to make current software more efficient and affordable. I understand that many people are hesitant about AI and I am too. The current young next generation is very pro-AI, which is where the herd is following.
@@addeyyry yeah sorry my bad, I actually need to be grateful with ChatGPT because they can be use for free unlike Grok. In this XAI vs Google vs OpenAI I'm on OpenAI side.
@@ssgg23Actually I see a lot of parallels. The main idea that motivated humans to invent flight was: "if birds can fly, then why cant we?". At first inventors looked at birds for inspiration. Leonardo davinci the famous inventor thought of the "flying machine" a man powered flapping flying device. To say that it was bad would be an understatement. Then the wright brothers came along and did the same and that didnt work. Then they realized that if you make something aerodynamic and strap a massive engine to the back that even a cinderblock could fly. The field of ai and machine learning has also been motivated by a similar idea: " if the human brain can think, then why cant a computer/neural network". Then... they tried to get inspiration from the human brain. But, it turns out the human brain does things very weirdly and efficiently, just like a bird. So what do they do? Find a decent learning algorithm like llms, strap a large computer to it with a bunch of data and what do you know, the llm can kind of think. Nothing is magical about the human brain and technological advancementa in ai will continue like any other innovation.
Really? ChatGPT changed my life from day 1. Being able to ask it questions every day, it's like having a personal teacher with a bachelor in everything. It saves me hours each day on searching for the information all over the web..
You're not that relevant. AI is already very useful to me for entertainment. I use AI Dungeon to do roleplaying. How does it feel like if you are a Hero in the Marvel universe? It's very fun.
Jenson Huang
Of course the guy whos selling shovels is going to say there's still plenty of gold in the mountains.
Agree
My thoughts whenever I hear a bit coin grifter.
you must have shorted nvdia, AI hasn't really taken off, majority of people have never tried chatgpt, but to say that demand is slow is funny, who knows how governments are going to use AI, it will be in ways we can't imagine,
It is more like he is coming down from a mountain claiming god gave him the one commandment -“Thou shalt give all your money to Nvidia!"
They’ll eventually overfit their data.
Naturally Nvidia, the one NOT training an AI Model comes out saying advancements will keep coming. They sell the product that every AI company needs to advance. The only skin in the game Nvidia has is to keep selling chips.
They're selling the shovels
They are training models
@connorutz7197 what? Someone spoke directly from the butt? Color me shocked
@@Cara.314they have created a few AI models. Including one that was state of the art when it was released
NVIDIA has nothing to gain by lying to their AI chip customers. You can't tell a carpenter he needs more wood when he doesn't. But they could be trying to fool the stock market.
Why is a portfolio manager being interviewed about an engineering problem?
You know why 😂😂😂😂
Market manipulation
Yep you have nailed the root cause of the problem...
Only stupid people would listen to tech CEOs and businessmen or portfolio managers etc. for engineering advices. Yet this practice has been going on constantly for years. People in the research community have been facepalming ourselves regarding Elon Musk's absurd claims and stupid comments since 2015. These business / marketing / fundraiser people have no expertise but instead full of conflict of interest.
It's so stupid that people keep listening to them. I'm guessing it's more for entertainment value then anything intellectual.
Because those in finance tends to believe they know everything
Takling of AI, though the perspective of many people remains that, NVDA is the "Stock of the year.". I am skeptical about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I have allocated $190k for investments, still looking for companies to make additions and to boost market performance.
There's definitely great potential in both staking and yield farming for earning passive income. Given the complexity and volatility of these methods, find a financial advisor who can help you understand the nuances and provide proper entry and exit points to optimize your strategy while managing risk.
I Invest in low-cost index funds or ETFs that track broad market indices, such as the S&P 500. These funds offer diversification across wide range of stocks and can be more passive, low-maintenance investment option, very suitable for investors who prefer a hands-off approach and want exposure to the overall market. I've grown my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $580k.
Could you kindly leave your investment advlsor's contact information here? I absolutely must have one.
My CFA is Sherry Ann Klein a reliable professional. I recommend researching her name online. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her a message. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Not a surprise. Expecting a steep linear improvement forever on anything is not realistic.
PCs exponentially improved for like 30+ years, though.
@@fredroberts8275 Yeah and that won't happen anymore. Moore's law is dead
@@RawrxDevtechnology isn’t over, we will have something unimaginably better than transistors at all in our lifetime
@@RawrxDevexcept it’s not. It’s been keeping up with
@@sssurreal Possibly, I'm not saying it won't happen, but I don't think it will be soon, and I also don't discount the POSIBILITY that it won't happen
Oh, so the CEOs of Nvidia and Google say they don't see a ceiling? That's convenient for a stock price.
Thats because the Mag 7 still buy as much as they can.
IKR? The same as OpenAI CEO saying their next product will be groundbreaking *surprised pikachu face*
This only talks about LLMs, but machine learning is used in a lot more places than just LLMs.
That's the problem Machine learning is used in very specific situtations & setup for specific business cases.
But the Tech industry tried to sell it as a major "tech revolution" that will change the world....
How does that change what’s being said here though ?
It can change the world in other fields. Deep Learning even more so. But the issue is that other-domain experts don’t know enough to apply and customize the models for their data.
@@wizaaeedcause it is.
@@Cara.314 you mean, it was... it's already on the decline
We're hitting diminishing returns sooner than we thought so we can't just keep scaling up and increasing compute
Software bros are used to exponential scaling because once you make a well-coded program, you can sell it or rent it at no incremental cost.
The problem with AI is that it requires physical infrastructure to scale, and constructing data centers, GPU’s, transmission lines, power plants, etc. definitely does not scale exponentially.
I believe it even scales inverse to that. because the amount of infrastructure required to improve slightly seems* quite significant
@brod515 yep seen multiple talks where it's clear we've essentially stopped in progression using llms.
Hm I as a "softwarebro" think that improvement is not linear, -> it's log. The more (interconnecting) features a software has the slower the improvement ("in all dimensions the software can scale"). If you are at the start you think everything is exponential, the more experience you get, the more you see improvement is logerithmic, even with your own learning... And I think the "logerithmic improvement" is a fundamental law... You also have this in biology, in the expansion of the universe (when you see it as a 3d cube) and what so ever.
That is a silly, and frankly misinformed take. And what's with this marginalizing propaganda "software bros" insinuation? knock that nonsense off right now.
That's not how exponential scaling works. You need to look into the explanation that Ray Kurzweil gives on how technology always builds on itself exponentially, regardless of factors like infrastructure. Additionally, AI will soon be put to use on improving it's own underlying systems, and when that starts, we'll see huge leaps just in efficiency improvements alone, without much change to infrastructure, tho that will come too.
I think you are a laggard
stupid media build hype and then destroy it themselves 🤣
mega caps also built up the hype, spending billions buying Huang's GPUs
The hype is IT business in a nutshell. There's always hype, lots of investors and money, then the inevitable crash... sometimes out comes actually something useful as a result, most proceed towards the new hype train.
Big media is stooopid, “Look here! Look there! Oh nooo!” Shut up 😂
I Mean everyone hypes.
Companys like tesla do the same to get investors.
Alot of content creators do the same when it comes to tech like ai. You can just search on youtube to see so many ppl haviing opinons or hyping it up. Its just how society works in 2024. Its just not big media company, but everyone does it. Dosent matter if its real or not.
This isn't what happens. It's a profit making structure, senior management & executives respond to metrics so they push what gets clicks & responses from people like you. There is no Mr Media who planned something.
Of course, Jensen Huang is going to say that the larger the brain, the smarter the computer. He’s selling the chips that they’re using to make the brain. The bigger the brain, the more his company profits.
The guys that are denying that there is a “wall“ are the ones who are the most heavily invested in this technology, and who have been hyping the snot out of it.
I’m really skeptical. I think there’s a bubble about to burst. If that happens, while the other potential economic problems we face, we could be in a lot of trouble.
I wish reporters were obligated to mention what incentives a person has for saying things
Another AI winter looms
@@electron6825winter is here
@electron6825 game of thrones reference
Should I short Nvidia now? I shorted a year ago and the puts are worthless now lol. I thought the hype would die out 2 years ago. Is it finally time for the hype to die? I guess Nvidia is going to drop like a rock after one bad quarterly financial report? But will that be next year? Year after? It's a matter of time but it's really difficult to time the market
Here's the secret in computer science: measuring "orders of magnitudes", meaning significant breakthroughs or advancements, can only happen at the algorithm level, not the compute level. The calculation for program complexity (big-O) is at the algorithms and scales linearly with compute. So if you want more advancement than a simple linear one, you have to change your algorithm, not your computing power. LLM and Deep Neural Net were two algorithmic advancements that brought about this AI boom, but there has been very few new algorithmic breakthroughs since.
And, AI algos are not directly solving the solution, it just produces another machine that takes guesses. So it's actually worse because even if you can harness great computing power to run your LLM generation, you have no direct control about the output machine (output algorithm), so even if you are able to create a better say dimension extraction algorithm, it doesn't help you. Similarly, even if you were able to create your LLM in 3 days instead of 10 days (with faster compute), the quality of the LLM may not have improved at all. So NVidia is basically a snake oil salesman trying to convince you that building LLMs faster will produce better LLMs. It's just not guaranteed.
That's right. I think people barely know how AI works, so they only improve the capabilities at the computational level rather than the algorithmic level which is the root. And it is even harder to find other algorithms.
@RodrickPerkins-d8dI don't think so. 8:01 He explains garbage in garbage out, so it's a no
I still don't think so. Even if they use the best data available. Since AI relies on human input, it can't evolve at the same pace as humans. AI can't think outside the box.
I still doubt they can create something that complex.
@RodrickPerkins-d8d if you were to write code, you could see that you can’t let it do everything and it still does a lot of garbage. To be honest, the improvement from 6 months ago and now, is less than 20%.
You still need to supervise it, so I wouldn’t let it make “itself better”, only if i wanna make it worse
We need new models and new architecture. Algorithms can help solve any problem. But plateau is at model architecture level.
The age of either innovation is here or doomsday.
Little-Bit “BOTH” Maybe... A Utopia/Dystopia - Type Of Vibe?!
Here we go…!
It could be both!
People often don't understand that two independently good things can come to be a bad combination.
Or it’s a big nothingburger
@@NadimShaikh-qv7zjlike daenerys and Jon snow
Funny enough, now that everyone is coding with ai , there are less things on stackoverflow and less thing for the ai to train on 😂😂😂
Gen ai will wall gen ai😂 ironic
No, there's just less REPEATED information on Stack overflow coz the same solutions is provided by AI. The amount of useful unique information stays the same
thats a none issue tho as new models are mostly trained on synthetic data and the best small model (phi-4) is nearly exclusively trained with synthetic data meaning no internet no stolen code no stackoverflow
This makes zero sense. If an ai can solve a problem with an answer that is not on stack overflow then does it really need to have the stackoverflow training data?? Also remember that regardless of ethics, all public ais today are training on the problems that you come up with and the answers it gives to those problems. And a third thing to mention is synthetic data. The new llms and ais that exist today are trained on data created by other ais and contrary to expectation, this is an improvement in some ways compared to training on human data and the internet.
@viniciusdugue3063 trash in trash out
There is only so much data in the world to train these models. Some companies are already trying to train AI models with the output of other AI models and they wind up cannibalizing themselves. Without vast quantities of more data there will be no more leaps forward in generative AI. Anyone saying otherwise is afraid they will lose their investor funding.
How do humans learn ?
@@_ShaDynasty our brain is the CPU needed very less energy and different type of computation. Due to multistate computing we have a different level of understanding of nature than AI
@@priteshpatil5363AI as we know it has evolved. No one in the 70s could have imagined the reality of the technology that we have today. It's ignorant to think that technology won't keep evolving
@@priteshpatil5363 I always thought it was through reinforcement learning .... Touch fire ouch, so don't do it again
They're not going to run out of data.
AI is a solution looking for a problem.
This is a lot more accurate than you'd think
That’s just stupid? According to you there should be no research done on new things as we don’t have any active implications for them.
It is more a problem for the world than a solution to anything. It would have been fine if progress stopped a few months ago, so it could just remain more of a tool
@@dabbingraccoons6416 people like you were saying “oh don’t make cars replace horses they will cause more accidents” you don’t think about progressing humanity as a whole. A world with ai is better than a world without it.
Incorrect. Try again.
It's good at summarizing large amounts of text and generating mediocre images & music. But I haven't seen any other uses for consumers.
That is because you are clearly not too bright , lol
AI has already been doing far more than you suggest for consumers for close to a decade, perhaps you just don't realise it.
@@noloveforthehaters can you elaborate ?
@@noloveforthehaterscan you give us examples. i’m not that well educated in the subject
@Aripoma There's a lot of things controlled by AI today. From navigation like Google Maps, machine translation of novels, and agriculture. I even read an article couple of months ago that AI is being used to create and formulate medicines
AI stocks will dominate 2025 and Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made
People who are working in AI know Super Intelligence is not in the near sight. They just want to keep the hype to become richer
Seems reasonable
Depends which AI. Chess AI slowed down 20 years ago. AI chats slowing down now. Video generation AI slowing down in 2 years.
This won't work. How is your day going??
I think the there was initial enthusiasm among general public in the beginning because of media hype, but now it's waning , because people realise thatthe actual day-to-day use of AI in real life is too limited.
AI has a scaling issue to much energy consumption and no infrastructure in place to support increasingly larger models with increasing levels of usage by corporations and the general public. Not to mention the data bottle neck that was mentioned is real as well.
Until you learn they were limited before because they could not do distributed compute. That's seemingly been solved.
Damn be patient. Just cause a major advancement doesnt happen every 3 weeks doesnt mean we arent making progress.
Everything plateaus. Tech industry goes as fast and hard as they can, if new phones and tech don't feel innovative anymore it's because the cycle ended until the next big thing which might come in many years. LLMs are way too expensive as well, so there's the money factor.
As someone who has been working as AI researcher in the past decades, it's frustrating that these business dudes and stupid reporters keep hyping the expectation beyond reality. Behind the scene, researchers and professors are still doing the work that advances the field continuously, just not at the unrealistic rate the media and business dudes have been trying to spin. Unfortunately the general public get fooled by these marketing pros/business dudes who are good at generating hypes and lies. Now the is slowly starting to realize that they are being fooled and now they thought that the actual work behind the scene aren't progressing. That's also untrue. The actual research are still progressing, regardless of the hype or the rude awakening of the media.
Computers are nothing New to Humanity. PC was improved home computer access in privacy. Even after Billions of Transactions, it is not even close to being conscious, let alone decisions. How the assistant is useful.
The hype was created by those companies (cause its raising capital) now they need to face theside effect...it's pretty simple
So you’re saying the metaverse still has a chance?
AI companies should pay us to use their models to continue training
That makes no sense
@@mineralwasser6888 Because they are using data produced by humans for free
To continue training and for each inference
They do running this model is expensive and you are using it for free
here after o3
We're not sure yet what it's capable of, things can be exaggerated as well as having statements from the company saying it still made mistakes that a human can easily recognise. On top of that it is insanely expensive to run, more so than o1, so scaling was somewhat of an issue. Lastly o1 was never analyzed and tested for the same scores so we don't know how big that jump really was.
Plus the mathematics part, the test consisted of three sectors, sector 3 being the hardest so we're not sure just how much it really improved cause it was given more time and easy questions as well.
No new LLM model has had the same "exponential" improvement compared to the first publicly release GPT model. It's always been small and incremental since the first release. The only "exponential" increase has been in investment. Unfortunately all that investment has been diverted from other projects in organisations that could have had a far bigger impact.
I'm honestly shocked that a professional reporter would describe anything that ChatGPT does as "understanding" or "reasoning". It's your job to learn how these things work and then confer that information to the public. You've failed step one.
I LOVE how, over the last 2 years, EVERY time the media starts putting out segments like this.. A week or so later we see a major development in AI that blows such doubts out of the water.. Then a few months go by, and they'll repeat it all over again.
Exacly
yeah it's hilarious, they released this just before o3 was announced
finally, some objective coverage
This didn't age well...
I don’t know that I agree. If you follow AI technology very closely you might feel the advancements are “slowing down” merely because there was a period of time that AI news stories were more frequent than they have been lately.
As someone with a background in Computer Science I can say that there are many many ways current technology (without further AI breakthroughs) can still be repurposed for many many more applications. There is also lots of room for adoption of the technology to be expanded.
With that being said I don’t expect research or advancements to stop anytime soon.
There are many reasons that we really shouldn’t be in a rush to accelerate this technology because it will be immensely disruptive and impact society in significant ways. Despite this, we do seem to be locked in an “AI race” of sorts because no business or country wants to be left in the dust while someone else takes the lead.
We’ve been here before, what’s interesting is to wait to see the range of applications that can be built with existing models.
More efforts need to be placed on efficiency so that these companies can realize some profits.
The intelligence part may be slow down, but the model size is getting smaller. Now smaller model has similar kind of intelligence like big model 2 years back.
O3 just tears through the wall
Exactly. These rabbits haven't been following "12 Days of OpenAI" otherwise they'd know their news article is cherry picked BS.
These aren't AI... They are language models .. once the database contains a comprehensive set of human phrases and contexts, more computer won't help
no they are ai they have no database is a neural network that output language
They have learnt the patterns and store as minimal form as embeddings .
Models are something which has learnt patterns and repeat those patterns if prompted .
Patterns must include intelligence
00:03 Is AI progress slowing as expectations rise?
01:57 AI advancements are showing signs of slowing down.
03:41 AI advancements may be plateauing despite significant investments.
05:15 Debate exists on whether AI progress is slowing or continuing to scale.
07:10 AI advancements may stall due to data limitations and quality issues.
08:36 Post-training advancements in AI require significant computation and innovation.
10:12 AI innovation may slow, but unutilized potential drives further exploration.
11:55 AI advancements are currently impacting various industries through agentic software.
Slowing down? I'm still waiting for these so called "advancements" to show up.
Great reporting! Thanks Deirdre!
CNBC: Here's all these experts saying its not slowing down.
Next, lets talk about whats causing this slowdown.
Ai has offered nothing but novelty to the average consumer. I don't see that happening for sometime. This is a premature gold rush.
People just wants to take a break from the screens
In my opinion, businesses often initiate optimization efforts when the learning curve is relatively low. Additionally, businesses tend to expand into other domains only once the growth of their current product segment has plateaued or when future growth prospects are significantly lower compared to previous year’s growth rates. These business tactics are employed by CEOs to maintain investor interest as well as buzz around them and enhance revenue from alternative segments.
No it's not slowing down. If the media says it is, then the opposite is likely happening.
Only when the machines destroy mankind can you say AI has peaked.
Frontier model performance on the GPQA Diamond benchmark consisting of PhD level questions, went from 20% to 70% in the past year. To call a peak at this moment is so far off the mark. Truly gratuitous expectations. Perhaps we can blame the quarterly earnings cadence. We are seeing breakthroughs monthly - odd that so many don’t recognize the macro arc.
Justin please relax.
Lmao these advancements aren't cheap and require lots of money and these are paid by investors hoping for a return on their capital. If the AI funding dries up, so will the momentum of new breakthroughs. Also current LLM is training on past models and answers what breakthroughs need are new answers which LLM aren't simply equipped to do. Instead the real breakthroughs are alogrithims of codes written by scientists to test a theory until LLM can write a new Algo, it's just regurgitating what is on the web.
@@unboxmuseumm how about that half trillion dollar infra buildout announcement?
Good summary of the current status. My guess is that the current method of scaling will be fundamentally limited because it has been requiring an order of magnitude more data and computation to result in a material improvement, and that clearly is hitting limits. But, even with that it still may result in some powerful targeted solutions. However to advance general AI, a breakthrough in the general approach may be needed… and it’s anyone’s guess if and when that may happen.
They discovered people just makes memes with it
😂
Science, research and development are unable to keep up with stock market expectations.
i agree with you. how is your day going?
Yeah, Mr. Nivida, here is another law, what goes up, comes down.
Not a law. Some things never come back down.
@@Cara.314 That ain't generative AI though, its being propped up by hopes, dreams and hype right now.
The thing with Nvidia’s GPUs is that they are used for more than just AI. There are 2 major drivers of demand. AI and accelerated computing. Demand will continue to outstrip supply.
The answer is NO.
Good summary report...well done.
Peaked maybe not the right word, but agreed slowing down. Use cases have for AI to catch up to chip development, and most non business consumers are not using AI as much as hyped.
Imteresting.Have we reached a period of "diminished returns"?
we haven’t hit a wall, and exponential progress will continue. ironically, Gemini 2.0 flash came out right after this video was uploaded and it was an insanely big update. Gemini 2.0 Pro will be even better. GPT 4.5 is releasing very soon and Orion should be releasing sometime next year. we have not hit a wall of any sort.
I should've also mentioned Google announced Project Mariner that day as well. 2025 will be the year of AI Agents.
While some may wonder if AI progress is slowing down, the evidence tells a different story. We’re not just pushing performance with raw computing power-innovation is happening everywhere. New hardware, like Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, will set new standards in efficiency and speed in 2025. Frontier models like ChatGPT O1 (Pro) and Gemini 2 show that quality and creativity keep getting better at an impressive rate. Meanwhile, companies like Meta are shrinking models that once required massive servers into models that fit into the premium consumer market, as seen with Llama 3.3.
Beyond just hardware, we’re seeing a surge in user-friendly tools and frameworks that make building advanced AI solutions easier than ever. Instead of slowing down, AI is branching out and becoming more accessible, more intelligent, and more versatile.
The real challenge isn’t about AI hitting a ceiling-it’s about whether people are prepared to keep up. Many don’t have the skills or the desire to adapt. Without embracing new learning and development, they risk being left behind. Given my humble familiarity with this field, I see no reason to expect a dull AI year or an AI winter in 2025.
Ahh yes, the tech sector scrabbling around for every bit of funding they can get! The same with the metaverse, with NFT's, Crypto, and now "AI" no endgame... just gimmicks
God I absolutely love this channel and the content they provide…great job CNBC!!! Very interesting videos
This is dystopian as hell.
quite the opposite. would've been dystopian if AI kept improving
@@MrMishal03 You got me there lmao.
This is good news. I personally don't want to live in a world where AI grows faster than society can handle.
@@MrMishal03
Imagine a society where AI stops improving, and things remain the same as they are today. A world where corporations control everything, practically making it impossible for people to afford basic necessities. Medical advancements are pretty much non-existent, and children die from diseases like cancer that an advanced AI would be able to cure in the future for everyone. babies and mothers die from miscarriages. People age and die every day, and many don’t want to, which an AI could solve. Alzheimer’s, arthritis, dementia, diabetes, etc plague the population, and everyone is stuck in a never-ending job cycle, all while global warming is constantly heating up the planet and humans can’t come up with a solution or invent something that reverses it before it gets irreversible.
This is not the future we want. AI can revolutionize our lives and make the world a better place. We can live in a world where everything can be automated, and humans can freely pursue any hobby we want. A world where every disease or condition is easily treated and cured. you don’t have to die from aging if you do not want to, food, water, and resources are abundant, and global warming is reversed, all solved by an advanced enough AI system. Instead of fearing the unknown, be optimistic. we have a great future ahead of us with AI advancements. just please, don’t be a Luddite. I don’t know if these fears about AI come from scary unrealistic dystopian movies, books, and games where the AI randomly gains consciousness and turns evil for no reason, but you have to remember that these are literally just works of fiction. the future relies on the improvement of AI.
@@MrMishal03
Imagine a society where AI stops improving, and things remain the same as they are today. A world where corporations control everything, practically making it impossible for people to afford housing and other basic necessities. Medical advancements are pretty much non-existent, and children die from diseases like cancer that an advanced AI would be able to cure in the future for everyone. babies and mothers die from miscarriages. People age and die every day, and many don’t want to, which an AI could solve. there are so many people who are paralyzed from the neck down, or are amputated, or are missing one or both eyes, or are deaf, suffering from their condition everyday, when brain computer chips and artificial body parts developed by a highly intelligent AI could completely solve these. Alzheimer’s, arthritis, dementia, diabetes, etc plague the population, and everyone is stuck in a never-ending job cycle, all while global warming is constantly heating up the planet and humans can’t come up with a solution or invent something that reverses it before it gets irreversible. THAT is dystopian.
This is not the future we want. AI can revolutionize our lives and make the world a better place. We can live in a world where everything can be automated, and humans can freely pursue any hobby we want. A world where every disease or condition is easily treated and cured. you don’t have to die from aging if you do not want to, food, water, and resources are abundant, and global warming is reversed, all solved by an advanced enough AI system. Instead of fearing the unknown, be optimistic. we have a great future ahead of us with AI advancements. just please, don’t be a Luddite.
For the sake of humanity. Curb that monster before nobody can control it.
We can always just “unplug it” 😂
bring back 2012 🗣️🔥🔥🔥🔥
Yeah, and Call of Duty World at War.
"not expected" - anyone with a single brain cell could see that it was all just hype, such systems can never be reliable enough even for simple tasks, let alone become smart enough to become "AGI". More data and computation can't make it smarter
Every exponential is a sigmoid in disguise.
tell that to those sigma investors
Imagine waking up from a 5 year coma watching this lol
Okay, but how many people actually want or care about AI? So far all I've seen, heard, and experienced is that companies pushing these "AI" systems has just been annoying, pointless, and frustrating.
A lot of times it seems like it’s there to provide solutions to problems that never existed in the first place. I don’t want AI to write or draw something for me because I want what I say and create to come from me, not a machine.
@@zero-jeewe care about what you want ?
You are not the the customet those company are interested.
People like me who want to make adaptation or video without having go do 5 years of art school or have to pay someone are the one those company are interested in.
I mean, ChatGPT has 300 million weekly users, so I would say quite a few people care about AI
@gakukilegrandgenerale2354 So, the companies are interested in talentless uncreative weirdos who feel like they're destined to be the next big name in art?
@@mineralwasser6888 300 million mostly free users. see how many left when they start charging 200 per month. none of the AI companies are making any profit.
The AI industry must adapt to these challenges to continue progressing. 🔄
I remember over a decade ago reading about Generative AI making Rembrandt paintings. When you know the full timeline it might change how you see it's progress.
AGI is here. Welcome to Ō.
@5:19 of course the dude selling the shovels will tell you to dig deeper! His opinion is absolutely irrelevant!
From what I know llm is just training data at a large scale. It's like how many pictures of cats do you have to show the computer before it knows what a cat looks like. The best way to understand the problem is the idea from Benedict Evans when he said " right there trying to make it to space in a propeller plane"
Video should have made after 12 days of openai
They would need a really good GPT-4.5 or something to invalidate this video though.
Did you miss Sora release yesterday? FMV generation from text prompt.
@@davidc2072 sora is great! That doesn’t change the conversation about AGI and the lag in new foundational model capabilities.
@@drichards4426o1
@@drichards4426did you miss Sors release ?
i love how when the newscaster says "not everyone agrees with this" we get a voice sample of Nvidia CEO... Time will eventually tell, but these guys will have gotten filfthy rich in the meantime.
And then VEO 2 was shown a week after this video lol
And now Genesis which is far more impressive.
And now o3
Even if the models don't get any better you'll see big improvements coming out just from the application of what already exists.
Such as? The best AI can do right now is take over a small amount of menial tasks. We've been promised large scale application for years but these companies have nothing to show for it except massive losses.
What's the best way to profit from this stock market bull run?
As a beginner, get yourself someone who understands the market very well and is also professional in the placement of trades. that's the key
Agree with you in my own experience, I have come to know it's risky and not profitable to hold coins while waiting for the Bull Run. Trading in financial markets has become a lucrative way of making money
Venturing into the stock market as a newbie was very difficult due to lack of experience, which resulted in losing funds... But Mary Jane, restored, hopes she's a good woman
Wow, I'm just shocked you mentioned Mrs Mary Jane. I thought I'm the only one trading with her
Can't imagine earning $32,000 biweekly,
God bless Ms. Mary Jane gerard,
God bless America❤
The rapid pace of AI development has been remarkable, but slowing down could be natural. ⏳
Technology on a whole has stagnated. 1983-1995 we went from 8-bit home computers running off floppy disks to 32-bit PCs with harddrives, we went from video games with crude 2D sprites to full color 3D graphics, we went from phone modems to the world wide web. 1995-2007 we stepped up to laptops, smartphones, games with full HD graphics, online shopping and social media. 2007-2024 we still have laptops and smartphones, we still have Windows and Playstation and UA-cam.
It might seem like technology has stagnated, but while the most visible consumer products like smartphones and laptops have evolved incrementally, there's been tremendous innovation under the surface between 2007 and 2024.
Here are a few examples:
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI technologies like deep learning, natural language processing (e.g., GPT models), and computer vision have matured. AI is now integrated into everyday tools like voice assistants, real-time translation, and even medical diagnostics.
2. Cloud Computing and Data: The explosion of cloud infrastructure (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure) has revolutionized how companies deploy and manage data, enabling more rapid scaling, automation, and the delivery of services worldwide.
3. Quantum Computing: While still in early stages, quantum computing is seeing breakthroughs that could lead to exponentially faster computing for tasks that are impossible for classical computers.
4. 5G and IoT: The rollout of 5G is set to enable faster wireless communication, essential for the growth of the Internet of Things (IoT), which includes smart cities, autonomous vehicles, and connected devices that create new efficiencies.
5. Renewable Energy & Electric Vehicles: The efficiency of solar power and the mass production of electric vehicles (like Tesla) are reshaping transportation and energy sectors, reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
6. CRISPR and Biotech: Advances in biotechnology, particularly with CRISPR gene-editing tools, have opened doors to new medical treatments, agricultural innovations, and ethical debates.
Although some consumer tech may feel familiar (smartphones, laptops), the foundational shifts in fields like AI, quantum computing, and biotech are likely to lead to future breakthroughs that aren't yet fully visible.
you literally could not be more wrong. the world from 2007 to today changed completely, arguably more than the other periods of time you listed. I feel like you’re trolling
This like saying a 1920's ford model t is the same as a modern day suv
The problem is the lack of data it is the quality of the data. So you can give a model more data and more computing power but if the data isn’t clean or more likely contradictory to other data already in the model it is going to cause the model to become less accurate. That I believe is now happening.
Where are those who were predicting the end of software engineering jobs, claiming that AI would replace them? Anyone with a basic understanding of LLMs knows their limitations
But there isn't agents yet, and low cost agents to run. What you are talking about, chatbots? 😂 Anthropic gains in coding this year was very very remarkable.
@@GARRAFONAZOALPEPE when Devine AI announced they had a model to replace software engineers, they also had a software engineering position open on their website 🤣🤣, good luck with that
@@GARRAFONAZOALPEPESoftware engineering goes beyond coding-it involves system design and complex debugging, where LLMs often fall short. They assist but can’t replace the expertise needed for these critical tasks.
@@zackthebest629 hiring software engineers to build AI doesn’t mean their jobs aren’t at risk… it’s just how tech progresses. Engineers create the tools that can eventually replace them, like factory workers did with automation. AI like Codex already automates coding and debugging and as it improves fewer engineers will be needed to handle the same work. Entry and mid-level roles are especially at risk, even if niche, high-level jobs remain. AI won’t just assist… it’s poised to replace many, just like automation has in other industries.
this is the early stages of AI
Id say in 5-10 years AI will replace everyone
Quantum computing + AI will be the future.
Quantum computing will arrive about the time we have fusion creating power on the grid.
That doesn't make sense... quantum computing highly specialized in what problems it can solve... and intelligence is not one of them. Sci-Fi tools strung together does not make them work.
Honestly, a lot of open source models are already good enough to replace jobs that don’t really require a lot of “intelligence”. You don’t need true artificial intelligence to change the world just like you don’t need a perpetual motion to drive a car.
A.I for consumers is overhyped as hell, still in the uncanny valley stage for images and voice although it fools some people, data needs to be watched for abnormal results, data coming from other internet websites ect.
A.I will continue to improve but is nothing like they tried to sell to people better stick to the business side although ethic concerns also arises, i very much dislike robots and chat bots from customers services.
Giganormous copyright infringement, energy consumption and resources, for limited usefulness without talking about how often and badly they hallucinate
This was not unexpected at all
Large language models are not the future, just a cool demo. The real potential of AI is behind generative design and autonomous data processing.
Humans are not smart enough to take AI to the next level
You train AI with something as weird as Einstein's Relativity in 1910, most people will say that the answer generated by AI is absurd. 😅
@Blueweek1 Said the dumbest human specimen in the multiverse.
We have been saying this for months... Without actual new theoretical development there will be no advancement
Can't believe the 'technology' which had to ingest the entire Internet's contents in order to cosplay as an exceptionally stupid fourth grader is hitting a plateau.
😂
Given all the vapid idiotic content that's on the internet nowadays, is this really any surprise?
If you compare it to a human reading at human speed, it would be a million years old
Models like ChatGPT-4o or the latest Claude are exceptionally smart. The only improvements needed are fine-tuning their reasoning and extending the context window. Compared to ChatGPT-4 or 3.5 from a year ago, the earlier versions now seem significantly outdated. Today, I analyzed legal topics with GPT before consulting my lawyer, and my lawyer provided the exact same analysis. I would even rate GPT as more skilled and far better at analytical thinking. 😂
Lmaoooooooooooooooo
Of course it is harder to increase the top speed of a car from 300km/h to 500km/h than from 0km/h to 200km/h
Another self-driving car moment, not immediate applicable use cases to the general public.
Or even proven to be technologically feasible
Except this time there was. I do use language models for variety of things.
You cant really compare the two. Self driving cars dont have general intelligence and the ability to be applied in almost any industry or problem on earth. Also there are so many ways we could improve ai like computer architecture, more energy, algorithmic improvements, specialized computer architecture, better data, machine learning/ai algorithms, improvements to software, and new paradigms.
Stock price manipulation masquerading as technological advancement.
Quantum computing will bring AI to the next level.
It's peaked if you're uncreative/unskilled. Endless progress to be made building just on LLM's.
Google's Notebook LM podcasts and OpenAI's Sora are two new advancements that are super impressive.
This is just how tech advancement works. It’s the individual breakthroughs and small advances punctuating periods with seemingly slow progress. LLMs have been a big step but we will look back on it as low hanging fruit. New methods are being experimented with and research continues in the background. The next development is coming. Photonic chips for example.
Yeah, the problem is people think these advancements will hit every other year, which probably won't happen... as we've seen in other more laid out scientific fields, the low hanging fruit drops like flies fast, but the top takes allot longer.
China is already working on Photonic chips. They know it's the future.
Photonic chips, quantum computing and are cool and all but that is going to take time. The real advancements that we and the media should be looking at are shifts in ml/ai paradigms, computer architecturr improvements, energy efficiency, more energy, algorithmic improvements, and software improvements.
I still remember my CEO laying off a whole product development team just because we had new AI tools to help us. What he forgot was those AI tools weren't perfect and the code provided by those tools required rigorous testing before deploying it to the production. Oh he also came up with an idea of building our own proprietary AI sevices forgetting that he had only 2 sound developers , no cash to burn for acquiring expensive GPUs and experienced AI engineers to assist us .
I expect a lot of collaboration between AI companies to make current software more efficient and affordable. I understand that many people are hesitant about AI and I am too. The current young next generation is very pro-AI, which is where the herd is following.
affordable? 😃 $200 / month
@@KarlinaAstuti-g7s 20usd / month
200usd is aimed towards professionals
@@addeyyry yeah sorry my bad, I actually need to be grateful with ChatGPT because they can be use for free unlike Grok.
In this XAI vs Google vs OpenAI
I'm on OpenAI side.
I certainly hope so. I'm tired of every single website I visit having an AI chat bot that pesters me about what I'm looking at on the screen.
Journalist like you guys once wrote "Man won't fly for a million years" December 8, 1903
Yes their pridictions are mostly inaccurate
Not a comparable innovation lol
@@ssgg23Actually I see a lot of parallels. The main idea that motivated humans to invent flight was: "if birds can fly, then why cant we?". At first inventors looked at birds for inspiration. Leonardo davinci the famous inventor thought of the "flying machine" a man powered flapping flying device. To say that it was bad would be an understatement. Then the wright brothers came along and did the same and that didnt work. Then they realized that if you make something aerodynamic and strap a massive engine to the back that even a cinderblock could fly. The field of ai and machine learning has also been motivated by a similar idea: " if the human brain can think, then why cant a computer/neural network". Then... they tried to get inspiration from the human brain. But, it turns out the human brain does things very weirdly and efficiently, just like a bird. So what do they do? Find a decent learning algorithm like llms, strap a large computer to it with a bunch of data and what do you know, the llm can kind of think. Nothing is magical about the human brain and technological advancementa in ai will continue like any other innovation.
we're still in the age of machine learning, we're not ready for full AI. we're still driven mostly by MONEY, and not progress in humanity.
Still waiting for AI to make any noticeable difference in my day to day life.
Really? ChatGPT changed my life from day 1. Being able to ask it questions every day, it's like having a personal teacher with a bachelor in everything. It saves me hours each day on searching for the information all over the web..
@maxjames00077 😂
Pro tip: you have to use it for it to make a difference.
You're not that relevant. AI is already very useful to me for entertainment. I use AI Dungeon to do roleplaying. How does it feel like if you are a Hero in the Marvel universe? It's very fun.
Chatgpt is bs literally and i agree with saul