Predicted marathon time: 10-MINUTE drop in 2 WEEKS

The predicted marathon time on my running watch has dropped by 10 minutes in 2 weeks. I go through my training to find the likely cause, and whether I think the 3:03:00 Garmin watch prediction is accurate as I continue to train for a sub 3-hour marathon in October 2024. Episode 16.
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[@mattg9366]

Nice one Nick. I tend to obsess slightly over my VO2max (not nearly as high as yours by the way but then I am ancient) but recently it's gone down a few points for no apparent reason. So now I ignore it (or try to)!! I have to say, I'm slightly annoyed I didn't get a Garmin with a race time predictor on it - even though I know it comes with a lot of caveats I do like see these times dropping (hopefully) although I'd beat myself up if they start moving the other way. On reflection, maybe it's more healthy for me not to have this function!

[@nrg_runs]

Yeah it’s a really good point, which I probably should have addressed around how these things can consume us. I generally don’t pay much attention to VO2 max (I didn’t realise for example that it had dropped a bit while I was away on holiday until looking at that graph), but perhaps have been fortunate that when I do notice it it’s generally stable/trending in the right direction! I guess with any of these measures they are no more than a guide, and the most helpful indicator will be listening to our own bodies… which is often easier said than done 😅