Klead Fusha Its called causal attribution. In success we tend to internalise the reasons and in failure we externalise: i wrote an a because im smart. I only got a c because the questions were mean
I’ve played over half a million hands of online poker, and I played full time in casinos for a few years. And she’s right. The thing I learned that kinda haunts me is how tragic it is for some people to get lucky. If they won the first night they played and had maybe studied it just a tiny bit, they would spend years going broke over and over. When people win they think they’re a genius, and when they lose they think it’s just bad luck and the world is unfair. Everybody does it. And a LOT of non-technical people are so cocky that they think being able to shuffle their chips or identify which seat is called Under the Gun +1 makes them a highly skilled player who can beat just about anyone. But I suppose we all delude ourselves into thinking we have life figured out on some level, and most of the time it takes us way too long to realize we were pretty ignorant all along.
bro you just crammed in the most useful info i've ever heard for a site anchor in five minutes and some change. huge W for making it short, clear and concise👁️👅👁️
What an absolute beast. Coming from a live poker player, she's extremely intelligent and knowledgeable. She's been around the biggest games for awhile and married a great poker player Igor..do wish her nothing but the best...amazing to see her on T.T. :)
1) Don't overestimate your abilities because of easy success 2) Speak more specifically (i.e. say "%chance" instead of "probably") 3) Poker tourney winners wear glasses. Nerds wear glasses. Nerds don't use intuition. Therefore intuition must be bad... (except for easy stuff).
@@itsiwhatitsi Most nerds have good intuition because they're devoted to study the subject/interest they delve with. Those amount of hours put into work becomes experience. And with continuous work to gain more knowledge, skills, and experience, it becomes intuition that leads to mastery of the craft as well.
I am not a pro, but I used to play a lot and studied a lot about the game. Poker definitely have taught me a bunch of life lessons beside what's mentioned in the video 1. stay focused on the goal - having fun vs making money. 2. adjust strategy according to situation - ppl nowadays always try to come up with formula to success and lot of ppl screwed up because situation can never be the same like poker. every time your opponents are different and their hands are different. tat's y I hate those poker videos saying you should do this when u have AK and you should do that when u have suited connector 3. analyzing - that's what I like the most about this game. analyzing your opponents and exploit their games. 4. you can never escape from tipping, have to tip the dealer when you are trying to make money at the table. hey why don we tip the floor manager. He is making sure we have a fair game
Great points and I'm guessing, if you had more time, you'd go into these in more detail. re: quantifying certainty, while most people don't use numbers. I feel like when most people say "I'm 90% confident", that they don't have a tangible idea of what that means. For that number to have any real meaning, it makes sense to track your predictions and then follow up with yourself to see how many hits and misses you have. Similar to this, when it comes to trusting one's gut, I think having experience is important, but also following up with the predictions your gut makes and calibrating it.
Too be honest the best poker players don’t have souls. Great short talk. I’ve been a profitable poker player for over a decade & using my gut is a huge part of my success.
Nice talk overall. Value of intuition depends how well informed and trained it is. For example when one is trying to make intuitive decisions in a new field, it's very unreliable and crude tool, but that very intuition, if it is based on years of experience and practice, can be much more effective than slow analytical process, as it can utilize huge amount of data that would have been almost impossible to analyze on conscious level. In poker utilizing math and statistical probabilities is definitely very important and if one seriously want to play this game one should become very good at it. But I think role of effective intuition in this game starts after this phase is mastered. When everyone on the table is able to make this simple math, that is when trained intuition can play crucial role. Based not on sentiments, but on the huge amount of experiential data + extrapolation of that data etc. So to recap intuition can be based on biases and sentimentality and be unreliable, but it can also be very powerful and pretty precise tool when properly trained. Also the accuracy of probability percentages heavily relies on trained intuition. The scenarios that Liv is providing (3:04) are good examples. It's close to impossible to take into consideration (especially without using computer and complex data processing) even crudely all the variable factors to give estimate percentages if someone will loose badge, live to 100y etc. But using trained intuition, one can selectively choose couple of important variables like: facial expression, gestures, age, position of badge, average percentage of badges being lost on such events, genetics etc. and give somewhat adequate probabilities. So useful analysis uses intuition, but good intuition also uses analysis. Because if person in general isn't prone to adequately interpret experiences, he/she may end up with "ocean" of distorted and unreliable data. Thank you for sharing interesting insights.
1:40 You weren't overestimating yourself. That's nearly a typical Control Systems graph with a first peak overshoot basically being the highest point of your graph, and then a series of lower and lower overshoots, later settling down to within the tolerance band. Very very nice. Careful, methodical, ruthless, and utterly practical, rationally so, always. That is the way to go. When going for the big ones, the first peak overshoot is where you hope you'll land, the eventual low is what you prepare for, the worst case scenario so to speak, and the tolerance band should always be, probabilistically, higher than where you started. High chances, low reward is always preferable to low chances high reward. Because despite what every single success story on stage tells you, no one hears from the tens of thousands of failed gambles that never made it off the ground. Take care of yourself always. We have come a long long way from the medieval times. It's time we put our mathematics and our scientific brains to use. Guys, this is what even my friends, in Arts and Commerce say. Mathematics and Physics, also programming are very nice tools to have. They open up avenues, and interdisciplinary routes that you would not even contemplate otherwise. Life is irregular so why would subjects pertaining to what we do with it be do neatly divided into non-interacting piles? They interact, to create something truly ground-breaking. Remember Einstein dreaming up Newton and Maxwell together? Of how watching stationary electromagnetic waves, if you moved at 'c' in vaccuum violated Maxwell's laws? There is never a reason to not cultivate your mind. This is the true fruit of our times. And to be able to contribute to that field is what is my dream. P.S. There is a 90 per cent chance someone is going to say, and I quote- "No one cares."
@@farrastaufiqurrazak9531 You're welcome! This gets it right even down to the initial dead time where she was still hesitantly figuring out the baseline rules, in the initial part of the graph! Cheers :)
Poker is a results oriented game but can be boiled down to process. If you can get your process right (your skill level, the right playing style, the ability to adapt when needed) you can be successful. Trust your process but be prepared to alter it to suit.
If you actually meant well, thanks for a good thought but please read something like the following before you write compliments again (if you didn't please read it anyway since it might help you in your relationship with colleagues, your wife, your daughter, your friends etc.): www.bustle.com/articles/89745-11-sexist-and-degrading-compliments-that-women-get-at-work-that-really-need-to-never-be
@@brickuz what has the world come to. its now sexual harassment to compliment a woman for being a woman at work? so now we should compliment women like men? oh geez, sarah. u r so manly i want to be just like you.
@@benzpinto Or how about just showing women some fucking respect? Are you even able to talk to women without some other agenda? If you can that's great but your short-sighted comment clearly makes me think otherwise.
It’s not right to say your intuition has no data. Your “gut feeling” is the result of a fantastically complicated subconscious evaluation of everything your brain has available, from knowledge, previous experience, probabilities, risk/reward, etc... It’s doing far more than you can process consciously and it’s doing it in the background while you’re still mouthing “hmmm”. There’s been talks on “gut feelings”, probably on TED. If something is too complex to evaluate consciously, your gut is a good, albeit unclear, alternative. The problem is you can’t cross examine or defend a feeling that your brain served up subconsciously without providing any logic. The “soul” I would’t trust because science can’t find it 🙃
I played 25,000 online poker games safely and won 24%. So simple math will tell you the Winnings from those games must be more than 76% of the losses. Very difficult without bluffing.
If you guys like this video, do checkout Verisateum's video on the importance of luck in success. In a nutshell, it argues for paradoxical thinking - assume confidence before you do something, but be grateful once you achieve it - as luck probably played the greater role in the end, all things being equal. So you gotta bring your A-game no matter what, luck is that extra something that is always needed to stay ahead of the crowd.
I had to rewatch the video in order to absorb in what the speech was about. But on my... she is a work of art. If I have girlfriend this beautiful and smart, I'll definitely consider of putting a ring on it.
What is luck? I hear about it all the time, and still nobody confirmed how does it formed. Luck is a combination of hard and smart work, definite decision on your goal, persistence, faith, positive mental attitude, desire, self-talk, confidence, imagination, specialised knowledge (not a formal education), integrity, honesty, habit, etc... I like when someone put all of this in one word called "luck" in order to explain his excuses for not achieving anything meaningful in life. Most often people who failed to define others who keep trying and succeed as lucky, as the people who gave up on money trying to give a financial advice or the advice about how life is to be lived.
Intuition is subconscious thinking and can be extremely effective on even the most complex problems But it can be derailed by triggers, such as emotional stress
The word probably means, 'a more than 50% chance but less than 100% chance', so it's meaning is quite specific. Granted the difference between 51% and 99% is pretty big but they are both probable. I was an English teacher for over 20 years and have seen people getting this incorrect with alarming regularity.
I don't care if she got her success from having rich sugar daddies and being hot or if she got paid more than she should've for any victories she may have had in her poker career "for being hot" as some weird people keep saying. I came here for the video expecting to be told stuff I already heard a thousand times and she totally went past my expectations in that short time. I'm grateful for this. But lets be real though, the dude that jumped out his seat first to clap looked like he was pleased by both her great speech and her looks. His face was beyond what I've ever seen in a ted crowd lmfao
"The future is unknown but you can damn well try to estimate it" When making decisions I try to approximate probabilities of future events 94% of the time.
This is nothing short of extraordinary. I came across similar material, and it was absolutely breathtaking. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell
Play your game and if you are lucky that day getting good cards you will win no matter what and if you are not lucky just take the loss and start all over again next day.
Intuition is good when you don't have enough information or time to analyze but you do need to act. That's why you need at least a vague plan in the long run.
I trade the markets for a living and that is the reason I watched this video. The similarities between professional poker playing and trading are real.
Maybe the intuition just isn't fully developed yet. Watch Carlsen play chess.. Luck is just the statistical intersection of probability and willed precision. Overall very cool lecture, wish I was a pro poker player :)
Excellent decisions can produce bad results - Poor decisions almost always produce bad results Therefore bad results are not always because of bad decisions and good decisions don’t always produce good results
but isn't the decision making in poker a set of rules that rarely change and those rules aren't morphed in any manner that require major adjustment; where as in life, an evolving world where decisions to do are sometimes not correct at that moment in time, to do means you already made the decision but the consequences of doing are much higher in reality than in a game you chose to play vs a reality you are dealt in which having to fight like H to get away from previous bad decisions made by parents to have you which leads to you in a bad case of the bends of decision making. You are dealt a bad hand in poker you fold......you are dealt a bad life you have to continue to fight and if you fold you chose not to get out of the BS that has been dealt to you. The decision making from a poker player is mute or static in nature because it is under a limited factor of moves that can be made by each player based on their hand they are dealt. The factors in life decisions can have a major skewing of those decisions and that's rather they are performed or not, cause and affect have different costs and that is based on the specifics to what it is applied to. The more specific to a set of laws, rule, or understood patterns the less likely bad decisions are made and the cost is lower IF setup that way. A factor of human in reality decision making can make what is good for you bad for another person who then may or may not have the power to destroy your process in that decision. For example the decision to play the power-ball lottery is to match 7 number......it is simple set of rules but deciding to purchase too many thinking that would increase your odds in a game that is random with no idea of any number correlation being a factor nor manipulation of many factors to which it lowers the possibility of guessing correctly is a game full of factors against good decision making skill. Humans manipulate factors of decisions made by other humans in order to gain more on the side that is truly the winner versus those that can not manage a decision. In other words, there are those who have the power to make bad decision but have processes in place to alleviate those bad decision, they have power ergo government. Playing one or two sets of numbers mean you have just the same chances of your number coming up as a person who has many numbers. The only way to truly win is to play all combinations of number within that set and that is not a sound decision to make unless the odds are favorable, which they aren't unless you are the people who made the game. You can rune your life IF you make decisions you can not afford or decided in not do something that would later eat you alive....but in most cases you should plan for the consequences of those course of action made by self and made assume the actions of others outside of your decision making IF it affects more than just you. Skill matters to an extent and luck is who you know when you have to work for someone. Working for self you have to hope luck is on your side IF you can not afford a major set back.......your skill can be great at the job but there may be factors that limit those skills being use.
Dude you rambled way too hard. Very few people are going to read that. But no, poker is far from simple. The more you play, the more you realize the subtle nuances in the game that affect a skilled player's decisions.
Our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning. Beautiful!
As a poker player, I can't agree with the statement more!
Klead Fusha Its called causal attribution. In success we tend to internalise the reasons and in failure we externalise: i wrote an a because im smart. I only got a c because the questions were mean
Hahaha I can't stand her after she chose to steal against an old lady in that game show.
It’s not a game of luck
💯
1) Mindful of luck despite ego
2) Use numerical probability
3) Use intuition mostly only for things you've done a LOT
I’ve played over half a million hands of online poker, and I played full time in casinos for a few years. And she’s right. The thing I learned that kinda haunts me is how tragic it is for some people to get lucky. If they won the first night they played and had maybe studied it just a tiny bit, they would spend years going broke over and over. When people win they think they’re a genius, and when they lose they think it’s just bad luck and the world is unfair. Everybody does it. And a LOT of non-technical people are so cocky that they think being able to shuffle their chips or identify which seat is called Under the Gun +1 makes them a highly skilled player who can beat just about anyone. But I suppose we all delude ourselves into thinking we have life figured out on some level, and most of the time it takes us way too long to realize we were pretty ignorant all along.
bro you just crammed in the most useful info i've ever heard for a site anchor in five minutes and some change. huge W for making it short, clear and concise👁️👅👁️
What an absolute beast. Coming from a live poker player, she's extremely intelligent and knowledgeable. She's been around the biggest games for awhile and married a great poker player Igor..do wish her nothing but the best...amazing to see her on T.T. :)
I mean she did graduate astrophysics at the Univeristy of Manchester, so its safe to say the maths in poker is childplay for her
There is a 97% chance someone will claim to be the first commenter on a TED Talks video. There is a 68% chance two or more will.
first to answer this comment
First
22% of statistics are made up.
And with 22% of statistics being made up, the other 88% have mathematical errors.
@@tvm73827 😂😂😂 I only get this now.
I've been a big fan of Liv for years. Great TED talk!
One of the my favorite poker players of this decade, she's awesome.
This is the first time I am seeing her (though her name sounds familiar). She's a pretty engaging speaker
The whole title wasn't displayed in the notification. I thought it was 3 decisions from a pokemon... was really intrigued.
Me too!
Lmaooo
I would go to that talk!
Dude! Hilarious! Lmao 😂😂😂
😂
1) Don't overestimate your abilities because of easy success
2) Speak more specifically (i.e. say "%chance" instead of "probably")
3) Poker tourney winners wear glasses. Nerds wear glasses. Nerds don't use intuition. Therefore intuition must be bad... (except for easy stuff).
you are now ready to become a poker tourney winner !
Intuition is more important of what we think.... A nerd without intuition is a not creative nerd
this is a painfully inaccurate reduction of the main points
@@itsiwhatitsi Most nerds have good intuition because they're devoted to study the subject/interest they delve with. Those amount of hours put into work becomes experience. And with continuous work to gain more knowledge, skills, and experience, it becomes intuition that leads to mastery of the craft as well.
Lol I literally use words like probably and sometimes BECAUSE I don't want to convey any real information🤣🤣
Smile_bro this is way underrated lmfao that explains everything actually
I use words like that to leave room to opt out. I don't like to make promises or let people down.
@@sterlingsilver5937 Why not just take ownership and say no to the things you don't wanna do and be honest about it?
That's how most women are
@@YaNeK92 Because you don't know yet. You want to leave the option open.
I am not a pro, but I used to play a lot and studied a lot about the game. Poker definitely have taught me a bunch of life lessons beside what's mentioned in the video
1. stay focused on the goal - having fun vs making money.
2. adjust strategy according to situation - ppl nowadays always try to come up with formula to success and lot of ppl screwed up because situation can never be the same like poker. every time your opponents are different and their hands are different. tat's y I hate those poker videos saying you should do this when u have AK and you should do that when u have suited connector
3. analyzing - that's what I like the most about this game. analyzing your opponents and exploit their games.
4. you can never escape from tipping, have to tip the dealer when you are trying to make money at the table. hey why don we tip the floor manager. He is making sure we have a fair game
4th lesson:
Everything you do conveys information. You can't be all loosy goosy, eating a sandwich, or checking your phone.
Mastering the class 😂
Hey Yo Daniel squad 🙌🙌🙌
BEST COMMENT HERE😂😂😂
Be quiet kid.
But I like sandwiches
It's lessons like these that we all know, but often need to be reminded of.
sociopathic tendencies.Lack of deep emotion and stress.
Great points and I'm guessing, if you had more time, you'd go into these in more detail.
re: quantifying certainty, while most people don't use numbers. I feel like when most people say "I'm 90% confident", that they don't have a tangible idea of what that means.
For that number to have any real meaning, it makes sense to track your predictions and then follow up with yourself to see how many hits and misses you have.
Similar to this, when it comes to trusting one's gut, I think having experience is important, but also following up with the predictions your gut makes and calibrating it.
And the award for the least nervous TED speaker goes to...
Nah, she was probably (60%+) nervous, too. That's just her poker face.
TheTruthSentMe puh puh poke her face
@@nhdarling2 puh puh poker face
Adderall , coffee, trying to appear as an ambitious professional
Poker players don't know how to speak out in public or hold s conversation with other
Too be honest the best poker players don’t have souls. Great short talk. I’ve been a profitable poker player for over a decade & using my gut is a huge part of my success.
Yep, all of this applies to investors as well. Pretty easy to feel like a genius when the market is on an upswing.
There's a 69% chance people will take your opinion seriously if you look this good in real life.
bullshit.
She does
@Marlene Cacho that means Primius's 69% comes 49% from males and 20% from females.
Well by the time they read your comment... the number increases to 76%
There's a 90% chance people will think you're an intelligent nerd if you wear eyeglasses. Take a look at the photos of those winners...
Now......... Imagine TONY G up next with his presentation.......
he would say its all about heaart and commitment
lmao tony
Tony G’s Ted talk: why you shouldn’t overplay king jack. Also how to get on your bike
@@olinater5 how to get on your bike hahahahhaa
You are gone, gone gone !
Nice talk overall. Value of intuition depends how well informed and trained it is. For example when one is trying to make intuitive decisions in a new field, it's very unreliable and crude tool, but that very intuition, if it is based on years of experience and practice, can be much more effective than slow analytical process, as it can utilize huge amount of data that would have been almost impossible to analyze on conscious level. In poker utilizing math and statistical probabilities is definitely very important and if one seriously want to play this game one should become very good at it. But I think role of effective intuition in this game starts after this phase is mastered. When everyone on the table is able to make this simple math, that is when trained intuition can play crucial role. Based not on sentiments, but on the huge amount of experiential data + extrapolation of that data etc. So to recap intuition can be based on biases and sentimentality and be unreliable, but it can also be very powerful and pretty precise tool when properly trained. Also the accuracy of probability percentages heavily relies on trained intuition. The scenarios that Liv is providing (3:04) are good examples. It's close to impossible to take into consideration (especially without using computer and complex data processing) even crudely all the variable factors to give estimate percentages if someone will loose badge, live to 100y etc. But using trained intuition, one can selectively choose couple of important variables like: facial expression, gestures, age, position of badge, average percentage of badges being lost on such events, genetics etc. and give somewhat adequate probabilities. So useful analysis uses intuition, but good intuition also uses analysis. Because if person in general isn't prone to adequately interpret experiences, he/she may end up with "ocean" of distorted and unreliable data. Thank you for sharing interesting insights.
1:40 You weren't overestimating yourself. That's nearly a typical Control Systems graph with a first peak overshoot basically being the highest point of your graph, and then a series of lower and lower overshoots, later settling down to within the tolerance band. Very very nice. Careful, methodical, ruthless, and utterly practical, rationally so, always. That is the way to go. When going for the big ones, the first peak overshoot is where you hope you'll land, the eventual low is what you prepare for, the worst case scenario so to speak, and the tolerance band should always be, probabilistically, higher than where you started. High chances, low reward is always preferable to low chances high reward. Because despite what every single success story on stage tells you, no one hears from the tens of thousands of failed gambles that never made it off the ground. Take care of yourself always. We have come a long long way from the medieval times. It's time we put our mathematics and our scientific brains to use. Guys, this is what even my friends, in Arts and Commerce say. Mathematics and Physics, also programming are very nice tools to have. They open up avenues, and interdisciplinary routes that you would not even contemplate otherwise. Life is irregular so why would subjects pertaining to what we do with it be do neatly divided into non-interacting piles? They interact, to create something truly ground-breaking. Remember Einstein dreaming up Newton and Maxwell together? Of how watching stationary electromagnetic waves, if you moved at 'c' in vaccuum violated Maxwell's laws? There is never a reason to not cultivate your mind. This is the true fruit of our times. And to be able to contribute to that field is what is my dream.
P.S. There is a 90 per cent chance someone is going to say, and I quote- "No one cares."
I enjoyed reading this -- never thought of em before. Thanks!
@@farrastaufiqurrazak9531 You're welcome! This gets it right even down to the initial dead time where she was still hesitantly figuring out the baseline rules, in the initial part of the graph! Cheers :)
70% of the viewers find her attractive
*99%
😅I didn't,until I read your comment
100%
No...not 70 percent...
Only perverts like you.
I don't Know. So finding someone attractive is pervert now ?
Poker is a results oriented game but can be boiled down to process. If you can get your process right (your skill level, the right playing style, the ability to adapt when needed) you can be successful. Trust your process but be prepared to alter it to suit.
5:11 Malcom Gladwell's book Blink actually addresses this - for the bigger decisions in life, go with your gut.
Well spoken, insightful talk.
Beautiful, intelligent, confident, and successful. This is what a high quality woman looks like.
Liv was a TED speaker! WOW! I'm gonna look this video now) She's extremely smart! :)
"I'm really tired of looking at Live Boeree's face"
said no man ever.
except jason mercier
She is a beautiful and smart lady
If you actually meant well, thanks for a good thought but please read something like the following before you write compliments again (if you didn't please read it anyway since it might help you in your relationship with colleagues, your wife, your daughter, your friends etc.):
www.bustle.com/articles/89745-11-sexist-and-degrading-compliments-that-women-get-at-work-that-really-need-to-never-be
@@brickuz what has the world come to. its now sexual harassment to compliment a woman for being a woman at work? so now we should compliment women like men? oh geez, sarah. u r so manly i want to be just like you.
@@benzpinto Or how about just showing women some fucking respect? Are you even able to talk to women without some other agenda? If you can that's great but your short-sighted comment clearly makes me think otherwise.
I use percentage probabilities when planning and explaining.
My friends understand them better XD
She looked in the mirror and thought “I’m 100% hot”
she's also a astrophysicist
By far the prettiest woman in poker
Brian Poland Up there with Victoria Coren Mitchell.
Not without makeup
Samantha abernathy is the most beautiful
Fatima De melo any day
It’s not right to say your intuition has no data. Your “gut feeling” is the result of a fantastically complicated subconscious evaluation of everything your brain has available, from knowledge, previous experience, probabilities, risk/reward, etc... It’s doing far more than you can process consciously and it’s doing it in the background while you’re still mouthing “hmmm”. There’s been talks on “gut feelings”, probably on TED. If something is too complex to evaluate consciously, your gut is a good, albeit unclear, alternative. The problem is you can’t cross examine or defend a feeling that your brain served up subconsciously without providing any logic.
The “soul” I would’t trust because science can’t find it 🙃
I played 25,000 online poker games safely and won 24%. So simple math will tell you the Winnings from those games must be more than 76% of the losses. Very difficult without bluffing.
perhaps, the most interesting talk on TED. so much packed into such a small syllabus...
Many thanks for your advice, Liv Boeree. Love you so much. We don't have any data to be based off.
Yes, yes and yes! TED, poker, and Liv :)
Good talk Liv! Especially the part about intuition
Wow she's beautiful.
Keira Knightley of the Poker world.
Yes, very rare for an English girl
Meh.. :/
3rdeyerap remember they get dolled up for these things
kulik03 that’s fucked up
If you guys like this video, do checkout Verisateum's video on the importance of luck in success. In a nutshell, it argues for paradoxical thinking - assume confidence before you do something, but be grateful once you achieve it - as luck probably played the greater role in the end, all things being equal. So you gotta bring your A-game no matter what, luck is that extra something that is always needed to stay ahead of the crowd.
The rope that holds you when you are weak weakens with time so be strong!
Never trust a fart.
I remember that 2010 tournament win; that was a monumentally good ted talk.
The data from intuition is your souls wisdom 👌🏼
I had to rewatch the video in order to absorb in what the speech was about. But on my... she is a work of art. If I have girlfriend this beautiful and smart, I'll definitely consider of putting a ring on it.
Liv Boeree is so lively-and what a personality! I like her being on stage; she resembles very much a person I know in theatre.
Amazing talk , loved it very much 😍
What is luck? I hear about it all the time, and still nobody confirmed how does it formed. Luck is a combination of hard and smart work, definite decision on your goal, persistence, faith, positive mental attitude, desire, self-talk, confidence, imagination, specialised knowledge (not a formal education), integrity, honesty, habit, etc... I like when someone put all of this in one word called "luck" in order to explain his excuses for not achieving anything meaningful in life. Most often people who failed to define others who keep trying and succeed as lucky, as the people who gave up on money trying to give a financial advice or the advice about how life is to be lived.
Think, fast and slow. Great book. :)
It takes a probable amount of wisdom to realise we know very little in reality.
Liv ❤
Intuition is subconscious thinking and can be extremely effective on even the most complex problems
But it can be derailed by triggers, such as emotional stress
Couldn't see point 3 slide because of UA-cam suggestion overlay.
i’m such a liv fan boy. go liv go 💋
She looks like Jack Sparrow's Oxford educated sister who chose high stakes instead of the high seas 😂😂😂
The word probably means, 'a more than 50% chance but less than 100% chance', so it's meaning is quite specific. Granted the difference between 51% and 99% is pretty big but they are both probable. I was an English teacher for over 20 years and have seen people getting this incorrect with alarming regularity.
I don't care if she got her success from having rich sugar daddies and being hot or if she got paid more than she should've for any victories she may have had in her poker career "for being hot" as some weird people keep saying.
I came here for the video expecting to be told stuff I already heard a thousand times and she totally went past my expectations in that short time. I'm grateful for this.
But lets be real though, the dude that jumped out his seat first to clap looked like he was pleased by both her great speech and her looks. His face was beyond what I've ever seen in a ted crowd lmfao
the guy with glasses is her boyfriend. the other guy is probably a relative too.
Brilliant, clear and concise.
amazing to see her on T.T
This was an incredibly good ted talk
I love your motivational quotes, they make sense.
Mesmerising, for so many reasons.
I hate the Good morning/ messages giving daily dose of guidance even though you don't need it! Thanks for turning them down👍
95% dudes clicked because of her picture. 100% chance I did.
U got me with that one!
probably......
by probably, I mean 101%
"The future is unknown but you can damn well try to estimate it" When making decisions I try to approximate probabilities of future events 94% of the time.
what a great and interesting speaker.
This is nothing short of extraordinary. I came across similar material, and it was absolutely breathtaking. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell
So, so true. We undervalue the role of dumb luck when we're having success. And there are totally benefits to quantifying odds and risks.
I could not seethe last picture she was presenting at the end of video because of random recommendation of other ted talks
Play your game and if you are lucky that day getting good cards you will win no matter what and if you are not lucky just take the loss and start all over again next day.
@4:21 that's an understatement for Christoph Vogelsang (bottom left)
so its LUCK, QUANTIFICATION and INTUITION. very nice talk
1. Don't overestimate ability, because there's always luck
2. Think in numerical probabilities
3. If in doubt, do a Cost-benefit analysis
Liv, you transpire confidence!
Which option would you choose if you had only one more year to live. Try that one if you are stuck :)
The only reason im here is because the presentation looks soooooooo good.
Very good talk!
How do you not downplay your luck and simultaneously not overplay your intuition?
wow, Liv is a data lady as well as a poker player. Love it!
She makes some good points. Does anyone think she’s read the book titled, “Blink”?
Intuition is good when you don't have enough information or time to analyze but you do need to act. That's why you need at least a vague plan in the long run.
From what part of England is that accent?
Harry Potter
Now that did deserved a standing ovation, thank you Liv and thank you Ted (100%)
Camera is a bit blurry at times?
Truly brilliant advice ...
4:21 Is that Tim Urban from waitbutwhy?
yes, i think so (99.9% probability xD), also him getting up and clapping, at 6:01-6:03
Love Liv Boeree!
She can be a good Hollywood actor
More people need to play serious games of poker or any field dealing with probabilities. Poker would welcome more women too.
Seeing Igor there was kinda wholesome.:)
Happen to me in the stock market where I thought I was so brilliant
Same. Was up on Put options in march, and kept buying puts. Ended up losing all my profit and some
I trade the markets for a living and that is the reason I watched this video. The similarities between professional poker playing and trading are real.
I came here for one reason and one reason alone. Poker had nothing to do with it. Of course it must be for the decision making part...
Maybe the intuition just isn't fully developed yet. Watch Carlsen play chess..
Luck is just the statistical intersection of probability and willed precision.
Overall very cool lecture, wish I was a pro poker player :)
Luck, quantification, intuition
Is this Tim Urban ? at 6:02
yes sir and 4:20 obviously
Very good points, well-delivered :D
Keep in mind everybody.. poker has few rules and risk factor is only win or loose or try again. And life has many unknowns algorithms
Trust your gut and stay in your current situation forever.
Excellent decisions can produce bad results -
Poor decisions almost always produce bad results
Therefore bad results are not always because of bad decisions and good decisions don’t always produce good results
Bayesian thinking, Annie Duke has an even better presentation at reason
but isn't the decision making in poker a set of rules that rarely change and those rules aren't morphed in any manner that require major adjustment; where as in life, an evolving world where decisions to do are sometimes not correct at that moment in time, to do means you already made the decision but the consequences of doing are much higher in reality than in a game you chose to play vs a reality you are dealt in which having to fight like H to get away from previous bad decisions made by parents to have you which leads to you in a bad case of the bends of decision making. You are dealt a bad hand in poker you fold......you are dealt a bad life you have to continue to fight and if you fold you chose not to get out of the BS that has been dealt to you. The decision making from a poker player is mute or static in nature because it is under a limited factor of moves that can be made by each player based on their hand they are dealt.
The factors in life decisions can have a major skewing of those decisions and that's rather they are performed or not, cause and affect have different costs and that is based on the specifics to what it is applied to. The more specific to a set of laws, rule, or understood patterns the less likely bad decisions are made and the cost is lower IF setup that way. A factor of human in reality decision making can make what is good for you bad for another person who then may or may not have the power to destroy your process in that decision. For example the decision to play the power-ball lottery is to match 7 number......it is simple set of rules but deciding to purchase too many thinking that would increase your odds in a game that is random with no idea of any number correlation being a factor nor manipulation of many factors to which it lowers the possibility of guessing correctly is a game full of factors against good decision making skill. Humans manipulate factors of decisions made by other humans in order to gain more on the side that is truly the winner versus those that can not manage a decision. In other words, there are those who have the power to make bad decision but have processes in place to alleviate those bad decision, they have power ergo government. Playing one or two sets of numbers mean you have just the same chances of your number coming up as a person who has many numbers. The only way to truly win is to play all combinations of number within that set and that is not a sound decision to make unless the odds are favorable, which they aren't unless you are the people who made the game. You can rune your life IF you make decisions you can not afford or decided in not do something that would later eat you alive....but in most cases you should plan for the consequences of those course of action made by self and made assume the actions of others outside of your decision making IF it affects more than just you.
Skill matters to an extent and luck is who you know when you have to work for someone. Working for self you have to hope luck is on your side IF you can not afford a major set back.......your skill can be great at the job but there may be factors that limit those skills being use.
Dude you rambled way too hard. Very few people are going to read that.
But no, poker is far from simple. The more you play, the more you realize the subtle nuances in the game that affect a skilled player's decisions.
Short and to the point