Unemployment Reached 'Critical Mass', Not Since 2008 Has This Happened | Danielle DiMartino Booth
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- Опубліковано 29 чер 2024
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, discusses how the economy has reached a "critical mass" of unemployment and labor market deterioration.
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*This video was recorded on May 22, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Recession landed
3:00 - Birth-death model
4:30 - Nonfarm payrolls
7:34 - Fed and rate cuts
12:10 - Refi risks and housing
17:00 - Sahm Rule
18:55 - Recession and markets
24:50 - What would cause financial crisis?
26:10 - Credit score inflation
27:45 - Economic outlook
32:10 - Living standards
#investing #economy #recession
I've become a big fan of Dannielle DiMartino's common-sense and direct messaging. She speaks with clarity and certainty.
We never thought you were a "Crazy Lady". You're the only one telling the truth right now, which is why we love and respect you so much.
I speak to one of my former co-workers regularly and he has been jobless since last November. Last time I spoke to him 2 weeks ago he said he's applied to over 700 positions and still nothing. It's bad out there, at least in Financial Services and IT.
My gf was looking to change positions. Same thing. Applied to hundreds of places and didn’t even get a call back at all except from maybe 3 of them. She stayed with her currently company and is now in a new role. So unless you already have a job somewhere it might make sense to look within your company. If you’re unemployed: godspeed my friend.
@@stevenap4594 I know, it's really bad out there. I have another friend who got let go last year, a Senior Management position. It took him a year, went through a 4 interview process, and relocated to the Nashville area at his own expense.
Tech, Media, Finance are by far the worst sectors right now
Neighbor said his IT company laid off two rounds...he's so far survived the knife but his workload jumped and the staffing is slim.
@@wayward03 IT almost always gets hit first in an economic downturn because company's view their IT infrastructure as overhead. And the staff is the most expensive component of this.
nice to have someone telling the truth, thank you Danielle!
!SERIOUSLY!
The people in office are doing everything in their power to keep this party going till after November🎉
CORRECT!
👆this is 100% correct. Politicians are bums.
that is because they know there is going to be a huge turnout from the graveyards
john , what party? it must be happy one only for a few one that are on the stock market....
@@raydemos1181 😂 Hope they don’t get away with it this time.
I am so happy that Daniel and Danielle get together because it gives us an opportunity to go into more depth and detail!
2 months ago my shipping company cut our salaries by 10%.
The silver lining in that is that you live in a country where that is possible. That makes the company able to survive in the moment. In Norway, where I live, you could not do that. Unions and regulations would hinder it. That's bankruptcy just waiting down the line. Obviously much better than a pay cut. 😒 Yay, commies! 🥸
That’s terrible but certainly better than cutting by 100 percent. I have never been asked to take less money only been laid off
CEO-to-worker compensation ratio reached 344-to-1 in 2022. This stands in stark contrast to the 21-to-1 ratio in 1965. People have realized it's stupid to work to keep these jerks rich when a job costs you more in espenses than they're paying.
To Elon, 344 is way too small... 34,400 is more like it
@@evangellydonutand Zuckerberg, Gates etc
The recession is now. In our small circle, three are currently unemployed. It's not gunna be just a slam bam, it's gunna be a long slog. Get ready for it folks. The lady is correct.
Thank you both.
You're welcome little one. Thanks.
April 1982 feds fund rate was 14,94 % while the unemployment rate was 8.2 %..
I just got laid off for my second job (weekend part time)..
I watch your channel and I do not miss when You have Mrs. Booth on.
Keep up with the good job David!
Interest rates need to be determined by the market, NOT the FED!
You're so CRAZY with all of your facts Danielle! Love you! Love the facts!
Also, age discrimination is a real thing!
I wouldn't be surprised if after January 2025 (when the president is sworn in), the bottom literally falls out for the economy!
I asked the grocery checker how they have time to raise the prices everyday.
From this point forward we have an economy clearly slowing down, probably entering a recession which is perfectly normal, not unhealthy economically, but necessary. Then, we have Janet Yellen in the Treasury with an apparent far more powerful influence and impact than the Fed Chairman. Yellen has mastered every type of bubble money ever conceived with the intention of pushing that recession out till 2025 or beyond. We are giving the patient, the US economy, stimulants and depressants at the same time. The patient is old and haggard, not young and vibrant. Perhaps our economy is Joe Biden.
If they goto zero rates, this country is done, we are all doomed
She is one smart cookie. Frightening to listen to but i guess spot on.
Great Interview, keep going Danielle !
As Italians my sister D… we’re always loud!! It’s our determination! Godbless my sister Daniella. Darkblue Trader!👍👍👍😎
🇮🇹 👍🏻👍🏻
A bit of irony in the data from Indeed since Indeed is laying off people now. Will those Indeed people being laid off use Indeed to find another job?
Indeed sir.
Negative 👎! It's all Dice 🎲 from here on out. 😳
Probably other hiring sites
Thank you Danielle and David! Excellent conversation! 🙏❣️
I make double the median household income in my area and can't afford a decent house. A tiny home or a major fixer is about it.
Great insights! Thanks
My job in a essential service was lost. Before my loss, our staff of 20 was reduced to 12 and then to 8. They have 6 now. While I can manage it, I'll sign up for the newsletter. Thank you, keep working.
Imagine having a US president with the intelligence, knowledge of economics, integrity of Danielle
I see absolutely no slow down in homes sales in any price range where i live in PA. How are all these unemployed/concerned about losing their jobs people affording homes? Makes no sense.
Perhaps people are investing in homes and land with dollars that will become more worthless as time goes on, expecting that the real estate will provide shelter and over time retain its value. Harder to be taken (unlike bank accounts and stocks).
Same in my area of NE PA. People from NY and NJ moving here in droves. They work in NY or NJ making much more per hour than in PA because of the cost of living in those states is high…then they drive 45min to an hour or more to their house in PA where housing is cheaper compared to their state.
Their creating a new real estate bubble in advance for when they start welching on their house payment.
PA has, in general, low tax rates on property compared to NY & NJ, this fact draws investment when looking to park assets. Average out what is happening in PA with the markets in rural NYS and NJ to get an idea of what in general...
Is happening.
Another GREAT INTERVIEW!
She realy needs her own National Syndicated News Program!
Many people have given up on getting any job that they can not afford to get to work in an affordable car. Nothing is affordable anymore.
Repent the Kingdom is near.
Proverbs 3:5-6
Yes it is!!!! Repent, and get baptized and try to be holy.
SNORE
@@maidenthe80sla
You care. When you encounter a demon call on the name of Jesus Christ to disprove your theory you can’t prove. Satan uses Hollywood fantasies, that word Hollywood is a witches wooden stick used to cast spells through streaming and television. Repent!
Romans 10:13
This time is different because we are in an Inflationary Depression. So the FED can't lower interest rates.
You remind me of Pete Nolan the scout in the old western named rawhide. He would ride ahead of the heard and see what dangers were lying there. But that's good that we're getting this information because a lot of us are trying to figure out what to do. Keep up the great work and we're both in Dallas so it's good to see a fellow Texan
Thank you for sounding the alarm.
Thanks for having Danielle on again. Our republic is in for a ride indeed, but her pragmatic outlook and advice is not only needed, but it is what gives us a chance to save this country. Yes, I’m serious, it’s not hyperbole, Danielle and her search for truth is what is literally going to save this country.
Crazy enough I don’t think cutting rates going to do a damn thing … the ship has sailed . Unemployment is past 6% imo…
The ship has sailed, the businesses are on the bridge and Baltimore is a fresh memory.
As long as the stock market continues to soar, the bifurcated "Have's" will keep on spending on vacation experiences, etc. So many variables, and dominoes to come... Ty so much for the financial education Danielle. Much appreciated.
Thank you! New sub here. 👍
There's that crazy lady running her yapper!! 😂😂😂 ❤ Danielle
23 seconds in and already learning new things. Danielle and Daniel, thank you both for consistently presenting data I frankly don't see as much anywhere else. I'm more of a DeFi crypto guy but good to know finance and market outlook 👀.
Not only is Danielle smart but very pretty at the same time 😊thank you!
We have been in recession for over 20 years numbers are distorted! 😮
It is so sweet that we ask how we are doing today before speaking.
Yup… I feel she is spot on! Thank you both…🙌
Danielle is the best
They want inflation expectations ingrained.. You worked for the Fed. They could never get inflation until now... Financial conditions are loose AF
Forget your fears for recession. Weve already lost 10% of our farmers to suicide because of the pressures they are under. If you eat, you really need to investigate what the WEF and the big four are doing to small farmers. The small farmers are important to keep food prices down. If these organizations are successful, grocery prices have just began to rise.
That is scary to hear, they want us eating fake meat and bugs 🤬
Inflation will skyrocket if they cut rates. Despite unemployment increase, there's far too much liquidity out here.
Inflation is coming from fiscal spending. The fed is not running the show.
do the collar while you can. high skew and rho from high rate=free hedging with big upside participation.
Sooo great to listen to such an inteligent woman! We have a different reading.
Unmasked for advice: You eat too fast and take too large of bites.
It takes a while for food to go from mouth
to throat to esophagus to upper stomach.
The acids don't kick in until then.
That's why people who wolf down a plate of food say "i'm still hungry . And shovel in another plateful.
Slow down. Hum Sinatra's " Nice and easy does it .....every time."
:
Boom! Danielle is on point! Zero percent is horrible for the economy in the long run.
The fact that the oft quoted inflation numbers quoted do not include food is crazy to me.
I am no expert but this is my understanding.
DDB has spoken. Again she gives us her wisdom whenever and wherever it is needed...even from an airplane lavatory. Thanks DDB!!
You just convinced me to subscribe, that is dedication I can understand like myself .
David great interview and DDB is always the smartest (and prettiest) person in the room 😊
Let's not forget the technical and financial sectors that are among the first to show cracks/weaknesses in the US economy as the Fed began to raise interest rates.
Of course consumer spending is up because EVERYTHING people NEED is much higher priced.
real numbers.............thanks
I see things tanking here in Dallas ft worth area even my job is starting feel it! I went through this in 70’s 80’s and 2008 and now this is worst of all!
Danielle… you are my DIVA ❤❤❤
Usually the pundits are all about the fed, miners, gold, bonds, the big 7. F all of that. Consumers, AKA the average folks who drive 70% of the economy are dying. Government is over extended, To me it is not looking optimistic.
Funny people tell me I like the crazy one's 😂. Good stuff D keep it comin!
Housing market in the northern Great Plains/rockies has started to seize up.
I think in the tech sector, not long ago they were having carnivals inside the jobs for lunch and pedicures and movie watching parties during the day at work it was like one big party with all that hedge fund money pouring in but it is starting to look like drone pal turned off the party spigot
Meanwhile: 1) US economic output hits 2 year high. 401K millionaires hits a record. Unemployment still under 3.9. Dividends growth hits record high. Housing prices hit record high. Eurozone, UK, Singapore, India are out of recession. Mexico manufacturing in booming. No signs of global slow down. US oil production hits record high. NASDAQ and Dow hit records. 2) Haven't our corporate overloads been bitching about a tight labor market for years? So...cooling is good, but also a sign of economic doom?
Is there data to extrapolate that would show share of consumption with cash vs debt by various income levels?
you have not explained how the fed can cut rates and not fuel inflation which is severely effecting more than half the country..
There is plenty of junk on the side of the road to find, lots of evictions, lots of scrap metal to find out there , forget relying on anyone out there to give you a job, there are plenty of things to find out there
What about the millions of Real Estate, Mortgage, Escrow, Title, Appraisers etc. employees that are currently at 0 - 10% of typical income due to high interest rates and sticky housing inventory? they don't even count most of them in the UR's.
DDB spitting truths
If you’re into presales, Revux is a must-have. Early birds get the biggest worms!
When the major banks and investment funds are bankrupt because of real estate, the FED will bail them out,,,, again. Remember the bond crisis when the FED allowed banks to borrow against their bond portfolio AT PAR. Yeah, a house of cards.
Complete joke. We need food lines bankruptcy, foreclosures, and massive economic pain. Until that happens. Nothing your talking about changes. Inflation needs destroyed at all costs.
This. Which won’t be allowed to happen, first sign it does the money printer begins. Which is why inflation is the long road ahead.
*currency printers
What happened to higher for longer Danielle ?
Oh Danielle! 😍
I know how you feel, I try to tell people that get their money ready because we're going to have a downturn and they look at me like I'm crazy I don't know what else you could do if somebody 's laying on the tracks and you try to tell him a big train's coming and they don't want to listen there's not a lot you can do you can lead a horse to water but
How do losers get ready for anything with zero assets? Can't fix stupid.
How is the sahm rule highest since 2008 when the graph clearly shows the same happened in 2020?? Can someone explain?
Probably excluding the pandemic since the government mandated it,. Not a natural economic cause.
Hearing so much about Revux in my crypto groups. Definitely on the rise!
Everyone making under $80k without a sub $1500 housing patment ihas been in a recession for 2 years
Unemployed and mortgage rates don't mean a thing now that everyone gets forbearance and bailouts.
I love the "Micro" analogy given but the dollar is dying quickly. Debt and Brics have sealed the deal. Both of these are inescapable.
full context result was here 27:10
Moved all my funds into BTC and Revux. This presale is too good to pass up.
Danielle is profiting from the full moon effect 🌕 she looks great ❤ plus her brains makes her gorgeous🤩
Consolidating my portfolio to focus on BTC and Revux, maybe a touch of LTC.
My bull run picks: LINK, UNI, and SOL. Best presale? Hands down, Revux.
DDB... on fleek.
Danielle will never be the “crazy lady”. I know multiple people who have lost their good high paying jobs, but are not worried about it just taking vacations on their severece pay because I think they believe the lies that everything is still great. Definitely makes me worried.
People are buying 6 or 7 things seems when I go to the store !?🙄
They buy the rest online!
Revux has 100x potential after its Binance listing. Mark my words.
I do not know why 4% would be so bad. I think 3 to 4% would not be so bad. Any comments?
Those who can't save a nickel will always be poor. Saving really works if those in need will just try it for a while.
Steam engines exist still.
That's one less expense we can subvert.
Gasoline has to be refined and pulled from deep below the Earth.
It just makes more sense to use the same feul over and over again.
Don't worry Crazy Lady, I believe you!🤪😜🤣
Throw a trillion $ of Helicopter $ out there, prop up the job numbers to keep the rates high, to keep the home prices from doubling.
Smart lady
We seniors know we r in cepression just admit truth
Don't worry,we're not in a recession yet 🤣🤣
Buy Now Pay Later-a whole new ballgame of debt.
Why don’t they just use ADP reports. They release the payroll count. Seems they want the most subjective data so they have an excuse to