The hand around 12:30 is actually a rec exploit I have heard from Pat Howard. Your reasoning is absolutely correct. I bet if you check your database you would see that recs stab too frequently on the turn, giving us incentive to just check a bunch of air and raise it vs turn bet. Clearly a terrible play vs a reg but against fish it performs quite well
Hey buddy, check your spam folder. If its there for some reason, move it to the primary tab, or add the newsletter email to your contacts list. That way next time it will go to your inbox correctly
You think 10% of all players on GG are superusers? (btw the MoneyTaker guy wasn't a superuser, he didn't have access to a privileged account, he just exploited an information leak from the client)
@@_MMWWMM_ stay away dude from Ggpoker and ACR , also stay away from ambassadors of these scummy sites and their agents . Boss of poker stables like saoulo are support those sites because most of their horses playing there . They are harmful too for poker ecology. If they have the guts they should boycott those scummy poker sites until they are able to offer a fair game .
Saulo can you help? Around 16:00 the bluff catch seems like a tough spot for me on the fly even though it’s just a math problem. OOP is repping 66, JT, and QJ. Maybe he mixes bet/x with JT OTT , reducing his combos of boats OTR? I assume most regs mix bet/x with boats OTR so he has very little room to bluff taking this line. That said, he has very few bluff candidates. The hand he chose is one of them. Maybe Tx/Qx with the A or K of clubs. Now that I list them it feels like OOP has lots of room to overbluff given his size OTR and likelihood to mix actions with his value on past/currents streets, but IP does block some potential bluffs in a spot where blockers should have a decent effect. I haven’t counted combos. Never been good at that. Whats your opinion on bluff catching this spot in general? And with this particular hand?
It's a pretty sick spot imo. My intuition is that it will be underbluffed in general. It's just not a good spot to attack with bluffs as IP is completely uncapped and BB is relatively weak, both from preflop call and also turn 1/3 size. That being said, it could very well be that they play so little nuts like that that it ends up being overbluffed. Ultimately it's impossible to tell, and even hard to have data on it, as its such a unique line MW. So I guess the most important datapoint is how aggressive the BB is as a player overall. Against majority of people I would fold any hand worse than nut flush and tank-decide with the nut flush.
@@saulocostapoker Thank you for always responding. You’re the only creator that does it consistently. Is OOP repping flushes with this line? XRing flushes feels thin given IPs uncapped range. I’m just trying to understand why nut flushes are more significant than non nut flushes for IP if they’re all bluff catchers vs OOPs XR range?
13:20 I think markkos was burning money vs rec it was a clear mistake cause if he know that he’s a station he’d not try to raise or double barrel vs a merge range
Good stuff sir, I enjoy your videos a lot, watching these has actually helped me take a more analytical approach to my game. I hope your channel doesn't grow much bigger, would make my life on online 6-max tables harder if your videos were common knowledge ;)
Great content ! Thanks again man! I love that we can see the cards and you can’t. Makes it somewhat easier to understand your thought process. Happy new year ✌🏻 looking forward to the next video !
Technically, yes that could be a reason. If OOP bets too much with QT, Q9, T9, 76 type hands and always calls with them, then maybe a hand like that can become a raise. But that's a biiiig stretch imo, much more likely that he just thought he could get tons of folds
Nice content - thanks! Small note fwiw, your English pronunciation is solid but I noticed you are saying missed like 'miss-ed', it should sound more like 'mist'. Also Bayes is not Bye-is but 'bays' Cheers.
The half pot size is used at a decent frequency from the solver in 3 bet pots OoP. You're right that it's usually a rec that uses it but there are plenty of spots where it's fine to use and the reg uses it and you don't note that like in 24:26 - justice for the half pot size!
Nice video. Thought that there was something wrong with my settings (or eyes), because cards were blurry :):):). Took me 10 minutes to figure out. Like it that you show them, and discuss the possibilities while yourself are not seeing them!!!
lmao I imagined this would cause some confusion. I wanted to include the holecards nonetheless, thought it would make watching more interesting/fun for the viewers
Really? Can you elaborate why? I thought this would be much better for viewers, as knowing what people have and watching the hand unfold is typically more entertaining. But perhaps I'm missing something
The Matthew vs Markkos hand where he bets small with a polarized range on AJ4J9 seems more a function of SPR. He wants to save a bigger bet for the river for higher fold equity maybe? But yeah the hand wasn't played very GTO from everyone. Flop Cbet on that texture should be bigger, Turn lead also as you noted. There's likely something else at work.
I've seen this time and again. For some reason that I don't know people have this heuristic that once they check-raise the flop and the turn pairs they should bet small. That's essentially what I think happened there
You think Mars is that poker cheater named Mars who used to play at Hustlers and scammed Weasley and Airball out of millions in his rigged private game? He cant play high stakes live anymore, maybe thats why he is playing there.
19:20 extremely incorrect. i specifically use half pot sometimes just so someone thinks exactly as you do. this is such a mistake by most players they assume certain plays should be done in certain by the book and by the era play.. also for example never 4 bet aces all in preflop ? why the fuk not.. i get called so many times yes you need to balance it but unpredictability is the key not go by the book rules
Hey DonPaluso. I think you misinterpreted the video mate. This is not about assuming anything due to the nature of the play itself; it's just probabilities. In the video I mention the mathematical theorem that can be used to calculate probabilities in these scenarios - Bayes' Theorem. You can check out the wikipedia article here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem An easy way of understanding Bayes' theorem is picturing you getting up in the morning, in a closed room. Without opening your window, you don't know whether it's sunny or cloudy outside. If someone asked you what's the chance of raining today, you would assign a certain probability X based on your past knowledge, and variables related to the event in question. If, however, you opened your window and saw a sunny day with no clouds, and someone asked you again what's the chance of raining, you would surely answer a new probability Y, with Y < X. Bayes' Theorem is about updating the probability of a certain event in the presence of new evidence. In the context of determining the profile of an unknown player, you have one probability before seeing him play, and another probability after seeing him play (new evidence). The stronger the new evidence, the more the new probability will shift. I explain Bayes' theorem applied to poker, for this exact problem (determining the profile of an unknown player) in this video ua-cam.com/video/ukb4jIFk0cE/v-deo.html Give it a chance and I'm sure it will be more clear for you. Cheers mate
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great content, liking the gtowizard screenshots in there for the analysis as well!
Glad to be of service! 👊🏽
The hand around 12:30 is actually a rec exploit I have heard from Pat Howard. Your reasoning is absolutely correct. I bet if you check your database you would see that recs stab too frequently on the turn, giving us incentive to just check a bunch of air and raise it vs turn bet. Clearly a terrible play vs a reg but against fish it performs quite well
I appreciate the deeper analysis in this video, exploring the motivations of each strategy as well as subtle exploitative motives.
Glad you liked it David 👊🏽
Hey, anybody else did't get the poker made simple newsletter #2? Nice Video as always! Great format
Hey buddy, check your spam folder. If its there for some reason, move it to the primary tab, or add the newsletter email to your contacts list. That way next time it will go to your inbox correctly
@@saulocostapoker thx, I got it👌
How does it play? Pretty well for those superusers who can see the equities, so maybe 10% of all players...
You think 10% of all players on GG are superusers? (btw the MoneyTaker guy wasn't a superuser, he didn't have access to a privileged account, he just exploited an information leak from the client)
2%, 5%, 10% what it matter... The site is compromised, doesn't care about security, and lots of account with unachievable winrates were discovered.
@@_MMWWMM_ stay away dude from Ggpoker and ACR , also stay away from ambassadors of these scummy sites and their agents . Boss of poker stables like saoulo are support those sites because most of their horses playing there . They are harmful too for poker ecology. If they have the guts they should boycott those scummy poker sites until they are able to offer a fair game .
Saulo can you help? Around 16:00 the bluff catch seems like a tough spot for me on the fly even though it’s just a math problem. OOP is repping 66, JT, and QJ. Maybe he mixes bet/x with JT OTT , reducing his combos of boats OTR? I assume most regs mix bet/x with boats OTR so he has very little room to bluff taking this line.
That said, he has very few bluff candidates. The hand he chose is one of them. Maybe Tx/Qx with the A or K of clubs. Now that I list them it feels like OOP has lots of room to overbluff given his size OTR and likelihood to mix actions with his value on past/currents streets, but IP does block some potential bluffs in a spot where blockers should have a decent effect. I haven’t counted combos. Never been good at that.
Whats your opinion on bluff catching this spot in general? And with this particular hand?
It's a pretty sick spot imo. My intuition is that it will be underbluffed in general. It's just not a good spot to attack with bluffs as IP is completely uncapped and BB is relatively weak, both from preflop call and also turn 1/3 size. That being said, it could very well be that they play so little nuts like that that it ends up being overbluffed. Ultimately it's impossible to tell, and even hard to have data on it, as its such a unique line MW. So I guess the most important datapoint is how aggressive the BB is as a player overall.
Against majority of people I would fold any hand worse than nut flush and tank-decide with the nut flush.
@@saulocostapoker Thank you for always responding. You’re the only creator that does it consistently.
Is OOP repping flushes with this line? XRing flushes feels thin given IPs uncapped range. I’m just trying to understand why nut flushes are more significant than non nut flushes for IP if they’re all bluff catchers vs OOPs XR range?
how can u see the cards, is this moneytaker the 2nd ? :D
I can actually feel the cards 👁
Is Spaceboifin MakeBoifin on Stars? (Love the vids my man)
No. Makeboifin is M Leikkonen on GG (real name)
13:20 I think markkos was burning money vs rec it was a clear mistake cause if he know that he’s a station he’d not try to raise or double barrel vs a merge range
I don't know man, the guy is up over a million on GG...the play is so random that coming from a crusher it's gotta be some deeper shit 😂
Good stuff sir, I enjoy your videos a lot, watching these has actually helped me take a more analytical approach to my game. I hope your channel doesn't grow much bigger, would make my life on online 6-max tables harder if your videos were common knowledge ;)
Loved the format of this video combining gtow screenshots. Best content out there!
Thank you!
When are you releasing your timing tells course?
Might happen sometime this year. But I got another course planned before that one
Great content ! Thanks again man! I love that we can see the cards and you can’t. Makes it somewhat easier to understand your thought process. Happy new year ✌🏻 looking forward to the next video !
Awesome, glad you liked the holecards exposed. Decided to try something new this time.
Happy new year mate! 🥳🥳
This is awesome content! Big fan!
Glad you enjoy it!
12:00 value raise against str8 draws?
Technically, yes that could be a reason. If OOP bets too much with QT, Q9, T9, 76 type hands and always calls with them, then maybe a hand like that can become a raise. But that's a biiiig stretch imo, much more likely that he just thought he could get tons of folds
Nice content - thanks! Small note fwiw, your English pronunciation is solid but I noticed you are saying missed like 'miss-ed', it should sound more like 'mist'. Also Bayes is not Bye-is but 'bays' Cheers.
A friend told me the same thing a few years ago about the word "mixed". Didn't know about this one, thank you so much!
This is the best content out there. Great job, man. I selfishly hope you stay a secret for longer.
Thank you for the compliment mate!! Really appreciate it
The half pot size is used at a decent frequency from the solver in 3 bet pots OoP. You're right that it's usually a rec that uses it but there are plenty of spots where it's fine to use and the reg uses it and you don't note that like in 24:26 - justice for the half pot size!
amazing video) please can u dont use effects to cards something like 3d :)
Thanks for the feedback mate, will improve that
Great content, do you have a public discord?
Thank you! Not yet mate
Against fish,at least in my field, Bxb doesn't perform that good. BBS better 4 sure. Their week ranges crush on the river against 3ple barrel
howd the fact that he used 2e sizing ott in the very first hand get past you. his turn size is perfect
True that. Probably missed the 60bb stack by the BB
Mars without his special deck 🫣
Great content,
Бразильцы королей на флопе не чекуют в России все это знают 😂😂😂😂
Awesome video !
Thank you!
Nice video. Thought that there was something wrong with my settings (or eyes), because cards were blurry :):):). Took me 10 minutes to figure out. Like it that you show them, and discuss the possibilities while yourself are not seeing them!!!
lmao I imagined this would cause some confusion. I wanted to include the holecards nonetheless, thought it would make watching more interesting/fun for the viewers
why do they buyin short so much
Love your videos, :D I always leave a like and a comment!
Thanks for the support my friend
Better without the hole cards spoiler.
Really? Can you elaborate why? I thought this would be much better for viewers, as knowing what people have and watching the hand unfold is typically more entertaining. But perhaps I'm missing something
so good
I'm a simple man, i see that Saulo's posted a video, I click. That's poker made simple
Hahahaha love it
The Matthew vs Markkos hand where he bets small with a polarized range on AJ4J9 seems more a function of SPR. He wants to save a bigger bet for the river for higher fold equity maybe? But yeah the hand wasn't played very GTO from everyone. Flop Cbet on that texture should be bigger, Turn lead also as you noted. There's likely something else at work.
I've seen this time and again. For some reason that I don't know people have this heuristic that once they check-raise the flop and the turn pairs they should bet small. That's essentially what I think happened there
missseeeddd hartsss
More HS content 🔥
That's what people like huh. Took me a while to figure out 😅
This is awesome
Consider turning off big blind view for these kind of videos. I think a lot of people like seeing the highstakes $$$
Yeah I changed it towards the middle of the video. Thanks buddy
Amazing content. Might be too good to view for free :)
Thanks buddy
i think the reason markos raised a3 on Kj85 is because there are so many openenders that will lead and call a raise
Could be, yeah. Super unorthodox nonetheless though, regardless of the reasoning
You think Mars is that poker cheater named Mars who used to play at Hustlers and scammed Weasley and Airball out of millions in his rigged private game? He cant play high stakes live anymore, maybe thats why he is playing there.
Tbh I don't follow much poker media, so this is my first time hearing about this cheater. I have no idea
scaaaaammmm
19:20 extremely incorrect. i specifically use half pot sometimes just so someone thinks exactly as you do. this is such a mistake by most players they assume certain plays should be done in certain by the book and by the era play.. also for example never 4 bet aces all in preflop ? why the fuk not.. i get called so many times yes you need to balance it but unpredictability is the key not go by the book rules
Hey DonPaluso. I think you misinterpreted the video mate.
This is not about assuming anything due to the nature of the play itself; it's just probabilities. In the video I mention the mathematical theorem that can be used to calculate probabilities in these scenarios - Bayes' Theorem. You can check out the wikipedia article here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
An easy way of understanding Bayes' theorem is picturing you getting up in the morning, in a closed room. Without opening your window, you don't know whether it's sunny or cloudy outside. If someone asked you what's the chance of raining today, you would assign a certain probability X based on your past knowledge, and variables related to the event in question.
If, however, you opened your window and saw a sunny day with no clouds, and someone asked you again what's the chance of raining, you would surely answer a new probability Y, with Y < X.
Bayes' Theorem is about updating the probability of a certain event in the presence of new evidence.
In the context of determining the profile of an unknown player, you have one probability before seeing him play, and another probability after seeing him play (new evidence). The stronger the new evidence, the more the new probability will shift.
I explain Bayes' theorem applied to poker, for this exact problem (determining the profile of an unknown player) in this video ua-cam.com/video/ukb4jIFk0cE/v-deo.html
Give it a chance and I'm sure it will be more clear for you.
Cheers mate