Great video! For 2023, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my $450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
@@MarkFreeman-xi3rk Margaret Johnson Arndt, my financial advisor, is widely recognized for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market. With a comprehensive knowledge of portfolio diversification, she is acknowledged as an authority in this field.
thanks for sharing this, I googled the lady you mentioned and after going through her resume, I can tell she's a pro. I wrote her and I'm waiting on her reply
Now for the rest of the story. 10-20% price cuts are just reduced prices on OVERPRICED housing. Most of these homes are 200 to 400k overpriced. So, whenever the contractors give a 20% price cut, they're still making a killing. It's just like car dealerships and department stores. They jack up the price and then claim that they're having a sale with price cuts and rebates. Do whatever gives you that warm safe feeling inside that will allow you to sleep peacefully at night.
I believe YOU absolutely nailed it. That is so true. As your example, I know what construction costs, what people get paid and what permits cost, a FRACTION, of a FRACTION , same as those pretty big 80k autos. Musk had cars for $200, n then $68, with profit.
honestly, buying a new build is probably the best place to buy a home right now. Sellers who own a home are still in lalaland while new home builder's are starting to get realistic.
Let new builds lower the price and buy an older home, the crappy new construction will cost your further down the line. Builders trying to pump houses out and have the owner hold the bag
@@daveblackman816 totally, they also have a decent warranty, and plan to have an inspector come out a month before it ends to see what I need to get fixed too lol
@@xa0wnerx Have you ever actually been in a new build? They're so much better in every way than old houses it's not even comparable. Good luck competing with them selling your old trash house.
We made the mistake of buying a new house in Texas when we first moved here. We had no idea that the % for property taxes in a new home can be as high as 5%+ on a new house vs 2% to 2.5% on a stablished subdivision. That makes a huge difference.
It's Texas That's what happens when you don't have state taxes They galge you everywhere they can get you Rich people dominate over the less fortunate I cringe every time somebody says I'm moving to Texas cause there's no state Taxes There is no such thing as a money tree Somebody has to pay for paved roads and Water treatment And everything else that goes with living in a town
Always do the research. Most of the builders sales agents aren’t going to go over that with you. They work for the builder, not you. Or get your own agent to do that research for you.
North Dallas is still overpriced as inventory increases, new townhomes are still priced at from 370k - 440k, and randomly being taken on and off the market for whatever reason. “Ready to build” homes listed in the same areas priced in the mid 400k. Idk if it’s greed or builders are stalling. Trying my best to control my frustration and impatience.
A similar situation happened in Arizona back 07-08 If I recall. The construction was very shotty on those homes. I hope the families and investors do a thorough inspection before buying a property. The new home I purchased had numerous problems. Inside and out. Most were small but there was the block wall on all sides not properly reinforced. It's a long day but it's worth the time.
Those Lennar homes would be $500k instead of $350k in Leander near Austin. Have a friend that bought a much nicer home for $550k in early 2021 and one year later, the same house was selling for $850k. Though, how many of those new construction homes are under contract? I don't think the builder ever listed my friend's place in MLS. Property taxes in many of these developments are awful also with many having both city and MUD taxes pushing rates to 3% or even higher that will keep out investors. $15k/yr in property taxes on a starter home is insane.
Yeah my father and I build large custom homes(north dallas area) we only build 2-3 homes a year though, in 2021 we sold a house in 4 days +$550K, another listed Sep 2022 just sold yesterday 1/24/2023 +$650K sold $40k under listing but took 4 months to sell
The market just shifted again. Now some of the new construction in North Texas is saying they are raising their prices by $10,000 and last Sunday the model homes were flooded with buyers. I'm a realtor in the Dallas area. But when I talk to builder reps in some communities they are desperate. The prices are crazy! You are right about the combination of things; we are just trying to figure it out.
Get ready for another wave of conservatives getting the hell out of psychotic blue states. As much as people on here think TX is bad, there is still another mass exodus coming out of the blue states.
so likely next year is pretty promising. That will be great. We appreciate the insider feedback! Hopefully more people hold out instead of fomo and we can bring prices back down to reality.
As a realtor Ive found builders dont put houses in MLS usually right away, I think they hope to find buyers with out a realtor first if they can(personal opinion) but what I’m seeing is builder emails of inventory and incentives I wasn’t getting the last 2 years prior, also grass usually gets put in close to closing! But that is massive amount of vacant lots
It's everywhere here in Texas. I have been up and down all new communities between Bastrop County (east of Austin) and north to Ft. Worth (currently own in Temple, TX). We're even looking at rentals, which is just as bad, nothing is moving here on those either, the rental $$ is down 25-30%, not to mention sales of existing homes. We're just holding out. Want a larger lot, willing to wait.
Agree, the lot sizes are too small. Almost sitting on each other backs. Don’t want to buy a house in this type of neighborhoods. Will hear everyone’s conditioner running on your own back yard. No more enjoy for outside. Big NO for me.
All the new houses in my area are on Zillow for rent.(north west Dallas-Denton) I haven’t seen so many houses for rent in the area since maybe 2010. I think they are trying to rent them instead of throwing all of them up for sale right away because they know they can’t sell them. There is also a flood of old houses for rent too, it’s crazy.
Blackstone and Vanguard are buying up the market in order to control it in the future. They are doing this in multiple states so there won't be any owners market in the future and they can push the prices in both markets up.
I'm visiting Katy TX, gonna go looking around and start my offers at a maximum of 2018 tax accessed property values + 10% if the owner made some nice improvements..... I'm not going to pay 40-60% more than the tax accessed value of the house, that is crazy! I'll continue driving my 2004 Mazda3 that keeps breaking down on me before paying 5k over asking price on MSRP, no way no way!
New subscriber. My wife is a realtor. We have lived through several real estate cycles. On the market downside is when she was able to build up her business. Listings will be everywhere.
Proof that demand is down: I’ve NOT been watching real estate videos. And I’ve been dying to get into a house for months. I Just don’t care anymore! 😐 maybe later this year.
Been waiting since early 2020....still waiting. Homes went from 150 to 600k 🤦 whenever bubbles like that burst they usually go lower than they were originally. Things gonna get crazy
Agreed. Many are being forced by some states to use more “green” products/materials which is NOT always good. It may save an ant in the Amazon but you’ll be stuck with a crap house.
I live in a new subdivision in Texas and yes there are hundreds of homes under construction but if you go into the sales offices of each builder there are almost no spec homes… most of the homes are under contract.., that’s what my wife and I did as well. We moved on with my parents while we saved more money and watched our home get built the way we wanted it over a 12mo period of time…
Even though my wife and I already made the call on our purchase of a new build, seeing this reminds me of our sub division in Dallas. We’ve been recording our process on UA-cam and I cross reference with your information to give me a balanced approach and future outlook. These videos are a great edition to my research thanks for all you do.
My favorite show now is your boots on the ground and filmed on location. You don't even breath hard now and look so natural. Your drone footage, clarity and sound is perfect and so professional. You are going be on the TV one day. Just hope you don't forget your UA-cam subscribers when you get famous. Hey I was one of your first subscribers. Lets celebrate when you hit 50K. I am in to contributing to a virtual party.
Same out here suburbs of Seattle. They have pulled back all the stuff not move in ready. The hidden inventory thats piling up and will be complete in 60-120 days is astounding. Lennar and DR Horton are reducing solid 12% and giving $20k towards rate buydown.
Massive OB of mega apartments in PDX area. Also existing homes 🏡 are NOT moving. Btw Rent control [Gov't involved] is on its way. Long time "mom & pop" holder of 10 rentals are seriously considering cashing out as they seen "the future" (via attending landlord meetings & landlord lobbyists reporting the pulse in local&state governments). As always, ymmv. Btw no position.
We left the Seattle area to move to Texas. The family-friendly culture was just what we'd hoped to find. There's new friends around every corner! Texas cuisine and farmer's markets are incredible, so I don't miss Seattle for the seafood or good Asian food, either. The Texas sun has seeped into my bones, and it feels wonderful. My garden grows buckets of tomatoes! I encourage anyone thinking of changing states to consider moving to the great State of Texas. We've plenty of room! Come on down, ya'll!
@@Mav0585 You need sunshine in order to see the mountains, (grin) and we were never skiiers. I'm happier where it's warm! We're so spoiled by the sun, we actually miss the summer months! Lots of years we never had a good week of summer in the PNW, so this is just what we needed. It's about crawfish broil time, and we're getting ready!
I can confirm the new build's dropping prices dramatically. I just went under contract on an 800k home with a 100k price drop (700k new price), 20k in interest rates by down for 3 years, and all closing costs paid for up in DFW (20k builder credit). I feel like this is a good deal, but time will tell if I'm the one holding the bag. TBH, I sold home in ATX April 2022, so I've made out either way and can absorb a 20% decrease without crying to much I suppose.
700k) payed 4 my mobile house 22 yrs. Ago) 35k) 3beds 2 baths) any person. Would want a house ) but i bought what i could afford) 700 k ) take your house an shove it where the sun don't shine) an the car dealership ) 100,000 for a truck) only make 12,000 a year) after taxes) you to can take your truck an shove it where the sun don't shine)
Must be nice. This is non existent in northeast. Probably mainly because they don’t build homes in the northeast generally without a buyer. I find it crazy how they pop up neighborhoods down south without contracts
On site inspections is helping very much to make a decision thanks for all you do. Very serious note The homes are to close together they need ten foot set backs on both sides of the homes.
Excellent video. I looked at Lennar in San Antonio, TX in mid 2022, and Lennar salesman said no negotiation on home price - even with an all cash buy. Salesman specifically said plenty of institutional buyers purchasing multiple homes at once. Maybe do the purchase at the end of 2023?
This is exactly what I am seeing in the new neighborhoods close to ft worth, TX Lots of homes from beginning of construction to complete and no buyers. I have noticed “For Rent” signs popping up on many of the completed houses.
We look the same in Florida. We have so much new construction and only a small percent are actually on MLS. They must be hiding the inventory similar to the way banks hid foreclosures during the last crash.
Agree. All north of highway 54 in tampa are hundreds of new build communities. Epperson they are discounting new builds big! Based on my tours, id estimate 20k - 30k homes are in the pipeline for this year. Inventory flood
@@jmoneymillionaire6705 Yes I agree in any buildable areas they have waisted no time clear cutting and putting in huge developments. I guess they thought the bubble would go on forever. I’m in Northeast Florida and they built so many condos, town homes and single family homes it’s mind boggling. Demand is way down and affordability is gone. I don’t know who they think can pay these prices that have doubled in the past 3 years?
Thanks for showing us that tract Travis. I've been receiving emails from Lennar for Hockey TX and Cleveland TX, some of the properties were in the $300k/$310k range now in the upper $200k price point. The waiting is really hard, 1. YT's telling us a/b Bank Bail-ins, which are true, 2. Some homes are perfect for me and I could buy right now 3. Our government is manipulating the stock market, gold, silver, and I've been reading the Depression Diaries, where back then only gold, silver, worked, even insurance companies stopped paying. Ouch!
yes.a decimation so bad, that "all insurance companies will fold" (were going back a 100 years)....90% drop in retirement worth (or more), if you hold a 2nd mortgage or "any stock....including paper silver and gold," your toast!
Travis is out among the people!! I love it. Taking these videos too the next level. I believe I speak for us all when we say thank you!! Keep up the great work sir.
Knowing it was a newer construction site. The guy in the truck was probably like.... "Ok, the house I toured a few weeks ago was right here, no that's not it. Right here! Ugh, no where did it go? I know it had a huge pile of dirt and bricks in the yard. Dangit!
Lots of great info. Thanks. I read there are more then 22,000 new single family houses being built around Houston, and that number does not even include places like Katy and Fulshear where hundreds (if not thousands) of houses as well as massive apartment complexes are going up. I agree with you-----we are going to see a doozy correction downward.
I agree. Born and raised in the Houston area, so I have witnessed the crazy development for 50 years. Any remotely affordable area here is taken over by immigrants and/or illegals. It’s the main driver of the housing market here. Americans sell to upgrade for greener pastures, and it keeps them in debt. It’s why well over 1/2 the clients I help with investing can’t afford to contribute much to a 401k.
Lennar, DR Horton and M/I have great incentives right now with closing cost perks in Florida. Similar drops as Texas. Old construction is higher than new construction.
This is going to be perfect for me and my wife. We are renting in San Antonio and we are already seeing prices come down on houses of similar quality for a hair under 300K. I don’t really want to live in an HOA. I’m hoping to find a bigger property that may be a little older but not completely against it.
Lennar's reputation as a builder leaves a lot to be desired from info I've seen across the Internet. I'd like to see you do a similar video in the communities out west of Austin, like Bee Caves off Hamilton Pool Rd, Hiway 71 N of 620, & Dripping Springs areas. These are areas outside Austin where prices have gone crazy. Wonder if they'll ever go back to normal like they were a few years ago before prices went⤴️
yes, but dont expect the tax to be the same 3 yrs ago,. From past pattern, the appraisal office going to increase the tax rate though. And the realtor & local govt & builders will lobby to pressure FAnnie Mae to issue 40 yr mortgage loan, so price may not go down that much , but builder would have a hard time building new home.
Lennar is a joke. Bought one in Florida brand new. Fridge lasted 6 mts. Went to open cabinets kitchen bathroom wasn't even attached. I had so much stuff to do myself and I'm a woman. Windows are not sealed off. Idk they cut corners inferior building supply as well as workers. They literally put the cabinets together and didnt put the screws in. Horrible homes
Do your inspections and do your homework on the Builders. Homes in the 90's built in NorCal were built with moldy sheetrock from China and the framing was shoddy and the winds had walls leaning 2-3" out of square within 5 years. Older homes that have stood the test of time were also built better and used better materials. Be diligent and don't make a hasty decision if it doesn't feel right.
There should be some great deals out there on new construction especially the longer they sit due to taxes. The only thing that I see on the flip side will be to really pay attention to inflated appraised values that you'll be paying in taxes. Be aware of your property taxes for your home 🏡
I wonder what the truck wanted? I appreciate your tenacity and sticking with providing the real life examples that connect to the data or lack of (hiding of inventory).
Argubaly, the housing market is so inflated, that a 30% decrease would just put things into "slightly above" normal. Normal homes should not be worth 600k and up when average income is 80k.
There are an insane amount of new construction in and around Crowley and Fort Worth. Apartments and houses both. Just don't see how they are going to fill all of these.
At the end of they day, if you’re looking to LIVE in your home and not flip, price fluctuations don’t really matter in the long run. If you need a place to stay, buy a home.
I really enjoyed your video on putting in an offer. Thanks for the updates. I have noticed substantial drops, but the average home is still well above 2020 where I live. New home builds are adjusting faster, but I don't want to live in one of the new neighborhoods I hope you are right that the market keeps adjusting because I can't buy until the end of 2023 because I'm moving. I'll be devastated if the houses start spiking again.
How are things in established neighborhoods in the city? Houses in the suburbs loose their value more and faster than in the City. The neighborhood you are viewing seems to be in the middle of nowhere, a two or three hour drive to Austin. I still am getting calls and mail from fast talking realtors wanting to buy my house in San Antonio,. How do you think the exceptional, historically low unemployment rate will impact purchasing of homes? From news reports and comments, new home construction is very poor and risky, regardless of the price.
I visited Texas in December. Went to New Braunfels, homes are 700k and over!!! How in the heck are they this much? Just like Cali. We used to think TX was the way to go just to buy and retire!! Well here you go. Prices are just too high for your regular mid income family to buy!
Thank you for these walk updates! Neighborhood looks beautiful especially with the surrounding trees. A new home community near me by Katy also has lots of new construction, and the scenery at sunset looks very nice overlooking farmland, fountains, and distant city lights. Also yeah that Dodge truck was super sketchy. Stay safe, bro!
Surrounding trees? Those houses are 10ft max from each other. Katy is flat and boring. I'm glad people out there like those houses, no way for this guy. Move towards mountains, rivers, or anything else for "scenery". A fountain, really???
San Antonio, west side 1604, prices has gone up 5k in one month. The city of San Antonio has increase expansions of the city. Plus, we have a lot companies running from Austin and Dallas to San Antonio. The city still consider cheap.
This happended in 2010-12 in Georgia, and people still could not afford and the local governments bought those new houses and turned them into section 8 houses… smaller counties in Georgia are building hundreds of hundreds of houses too…hopefully these don’t get bought by the governments again.
Yes they r new homes but the older homes from 80s back are in better quality & material than the current. U can purchase an old house & invest on updating it with small things like windows etc
Institutional investors would be lining up to buy those homes in bulk at 15% off if they didn't think there was going to be a 30%+ crash. And there will be.
Travis I watch all your videos, but this is only my second comment. I live in Chicago and I’m looking for a home in the suburbs. Homes haven’t dropped much yet but the unaffordability is as bad as anywhere with the very high property taxes ($700-$1000 a month) and high interest rates. There has been some new home building in the Elgin suburb but not nearly as much as in other states, so maybe thats keeping the housing prices high. I can buy now and I’m ready now but I’m hoping by the end of this year the homes will be more affordable and ill find a deal.
Another Real Estate UA-camr said Texas & Floriduh are going to be ground zero for the housing meltdown. These are the cheapest places to buy (new) homes in the US.
My dilemma is that I have 4 properties ready with absolutely great offers on them.....I want to 1031 them but I'm afraid that I won't be able to time it just right and end up paying too much for my next set of properties. I see the prices falling but I also see builders still building. In the last crash.....they stopped building rather quickly.
In Austin thousands of people were on a wait list for a new home. These homes are probably all of the people who are finally getting their home built. That’s why it isn’t listed on MLS.
I agree, we work here in Dallas and most new homes that are being built are already sold. I’m talking about multiple subdivisions and from different builders.
I don't understand why people aren't listening. Please, guys, pay attention. It would literally take you less than 10 minutes to call these sales officies and actually learn for yourself. Don't forget the historical high cancelation rate. Pay attention!!!!
FYI That subdivisions is not shocking at all. It is a very basic small ass subdivision of 300 homes. Large subdivisions are much large 800 homes plus and this is for Canadian standards. But what your saying is really amazing. Affordable housing. Buy at the right time! Amazing!
Ask Lennar about all the homes that have already flooded over there as well as all of the houses falling apart from being built on sand as well as poor construction. That whole development is right on the creek. Plus it's an ETJ for the City of Houston, so enjoy those taxes. Don't believe me? Drive around and look at all the storm drain covers. "City of Houston" all over them.
I don’t see institutional investors buying new houses near Houston anytime soon. The property taxes and MUD taxes and HOA fees and insurance make the monthly costs way higher than what the houses would rent for.
So I had posted a while back when you said we shouldn’t buy or sell at this point in time about 2 months again! Well we sold our home in Texas and we bought a home cash in Louisiana! We love it and we are happy that it worked out for us. We did it. We got a good deal on both ends we feel and we love our home now! It can be done
Nothing new, it's called downgrading markets. Works for those who are looking for that kind of shift. Try doing the opposite (LA to TX metro) and get back to us.
We see the same thing here in Northern California, just outside Sacramento. Also, entire new neighborhoods with slabs poured with no construction done. Why? Because developers know that they cannot sell existing inventory, let alone sink more liquid capital into more construction. This is not great news for the macro economy, but it is great for the shrewd home buyer!
@Greg Beaudry - Exactamondo. And the [highly inflated] rental mrkts will experience a "gravity sucks" phenomenon. "History does not repeat itself. But it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
It sounds wierd , but aren't developpers suppose to presale like 75%...before starting construction if they want want their bank loan to be available ...or the rules are more loose in Texas
So, I tried to get a new construction loan recently 1/19/23 and it was like pulling teeth. I think the lenders are buckling down, even in the face of near destruction in the housing market. Fear is going to hit hard and selling will hit harder
The real fact is to determine if new builders are planning on building in 2023. I think the inventory built up is going to stay as long as interests rates remain at 6% plus. This rate is historically the norm and with the national debt coupled with inflation I do not see a return to below 4 %. So the only buyers will be those forced to move due to careers and others will sit this out until rates change or the prices drop enough to bottom out at 10% above costs. The mad rush downward will go in phases to get rid of their inventory. The guessing game is where the prices bottom out to get the buyer back in the market. Does any builder have the ability to sit out a year? Look for an implosion when critical mass hits. I just wonder if the banks are leery in offering the builders loans? If that happens watch the brakes put on which I think the Fed really wants. Builder Kaufman Broad Homes had posted a 60% cancellation rate for new homes. The bloodbath has started. I agree don't buy because the foreclosures will be kicking in to provide young couples an opportunity or wait for the bottom of the trough in new housing. Grab the popcorn. Well done, Travis. Kingman AZ and love it.
Prices of new homes going down certainly is good news, but with interest rates still high (resulting in a MUCH higher monthly mortgage pay't), I still wouldn't even TRY to buy now as lower home prices isn't enough -- interest rates need to go WAY down first. If both of those happen then I definitely WILL be looking to buy...but not here in Texas, would be going back to Colorado (Springs). -- BR
😊😊😊😊😊 YOU ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST “Boots on the ground” videos. Why do you think that they’re hiding this? Just waiting it out?? This is so crazy 😜. Thank you Travis, Carlos
If they place one or two on MLS it brings buyers to the addition and then if the buyer offers on a home that is not listed and they buyer is not represented by an agent the builder does not have to pay commissions
Could be to avoid paying property taxes on the dwelling, plus my guess is they don't won't to flood MLS. This is happening all around my city. It's going to be fun to cover this all year
Builders deserve what they get. They are the main reason for this market. Ridiculous pricing and incremental increases really pushing the prices. They deserve it.
Serious question for those actually in the know: Why do people keep saying that newly built homes are made poorly and that builders cut corners? How are they cutting corners? Wouldn't home inspectors catch these issues? Is it really better to buy an older home?
Thank you so much for your videos. We are on the sidelines waiting to buy after we sold our house a year and half ago! We are in Fort Worth and would love some guidance. We were thinking about buying before August since that’s when our lease is up. I will keep my eye on your reports. What would you advise for us to do to start getting ready for when opportunity comes. Thanks so much
What put y'all on the sidelines? Not necessarily a bad thing to wait if that's a good fit for your timing, but prices tend to be friendlier to buyers when rates are relatively higher :)
I'm in NE Houston. Getting approved right now isn't going well, so we're going to rent a little house for the meantime. These houses are huge, like the mansions in Virginia where I moved from, for a fraction of the costs. My dream home is out there somewhere.
This seems very sage advice. I see the same thing happening here in FL. Houses selling much more slowly as a result of diminishing buyers. The interest rate hikes have really been the nail in the coffin. These large housing developments in some circumstances may take years to complete. All of these limitless expectations are now facing the actual facts.
@@lelelum4103 thats a lie, pulling roughly 150-200 dollars from my check, as opposed to paying 500-700 dollars a month in property tax added to your mortgage, and i live in north Dallas, is not a great trade off from where i am standing, currently looking for a house here
Where I am interested in buying is a master plan just like this one. It's in nexton (Summervile) South Carolina, about 1/3 of the houses are owned, 1/3 are listed and/or being built, and 1/3 are dirt lots. Many home builders are in this same plan, and they are being SO reluctant to lower prices... trying to be patient
The more homes that have to be sold in a particular area, the greater chance of getting a lower price. Homes in desirable areas usually have more buyers than sellers. As a result, prices tend to be higher. Typically, these areas have more desirable schools, location, prestige.
MLS means that the price it way too high. Those houses are so close together they might as well be apartment buildings. I have a truck, I put a sign on it, For Sale $100000 and then drew a line thru that and put $80000. What is my truck really worth? Those houses on the tiny lots aren't worth $50000.
Great video! For 2023, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my $450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
@@AntonioBianh Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?
@@MarkFreeman-xi3rk Margaret Johnson Arndt, my financial advisor, is widely recognized for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market. With a comprehensive knowledge of portfolio diversification, she is acknowledged as an authority in this field.
thanks for sharing this, I googled the lady you mentioned and after going through her resume, I can tell she's a pro. I wrote her and I'm waiting on her reply
Now for the rest of the story. 10-20% price cuts are just reduced prices on OVERPRICED housing. Most of these homes are 200 to 400k overpriced. So, whenever the contractors give a 20% price cut, they're still making a killing. It's just like car dealerships and department stores. They jack up the price and then claim that they're having a sale with price cuts and rebates. Do whatever gives you that warm safe feeling inside that will allow you to sleep peacefully at night.
I believe YOU absolutely nailed it. That is so true. As your example, I know what construction costs, what people get paid and what permits cost, a FRACTION, of a FRACTION , same as those pretty big 80k autos. Musk had cars for $200, n then $68, with profit.
It also has a ton to do with buyer demand. Lots of people coming to TX
I would think maybe it's more like 100k overpriced each home. It cost more to build the homes with the cost of living increase.
honestly, buying a new build is probably the best place to buy a home right now. Sellers who own a home are still in lalaland while new home builder's are starting to get realistic.
Let new builds lower the price and buy an older home, the crappy new construction will cost your further down the line. Builders trying to pump houses out and have the owner hold the bag
Yep. I’m looking at new builds now offering great incentives. Make sure you get an inspector
@@daveblackman816 totally, they also have a decent warranty, and plan to have an inspector come out a month before it ends to see what I need to get fixed too lol
@@xa0wnerx Dang! Never thought about that. Great point!
@@xa0wnerx Have you ever actually been in a new build? They're so much better in every way than old houses it's not even comparable. Good luck competing with them selling your old trash house.
We made the mistake of buying a new house in Texas when we first moved here. We had no idea that the % for property taxes in a new home can be as high as 5%+ on a new house vs 2% to 2.5% on a stablished subdivision. That makes a huge difference.
Live and learn.
😨
It's Texas
That's what happens when you don't have state taxes
They galge you everywhere they can get you
Rich people dominate over the less fortunate
I cringe every time somebody says I'm moving to Texas cause there's no state Taxes
There is no such thing as a money tree
Somebody has to pay for paved roads and Water treatment
And everything else that goes with living in a town
Always do the research. Most of the builders sales agents aren’t going to go over that with you. They work for the builder, not you. Or get your own agent to do that research for you.
@@topher766 yep always have a good realtor!
North Dallas is still overpriced as inventory increases, new townhomes are still priced at from 370k - 440k, and randomly being taken on and off the market for whatever reason. “Ready to build” homes listed in the same areas priced in the mid 400k. Idk if it’s greed or builders are stalling. Trying my best to control my frustration and impatience.
Same here in Austin, but add 100k to cost. I cannot wait for these ridiculous and overinflated prices to come down.
Right and is frustrated to hear other parts of Texas going down but not North Dallas.. is ridiculous
A similar situation happened in Arizona back 07-08 If I recall. The construction was very shotty on those homes. I hope the families and investors do a thorough inspection before buying a property. The new home I purchased had numerous problems. Inside and out. Most were small but there was the block wall on all sides not properly reinforced. It's a long day but it's worth the time.
They will cut costs to reduce losses.
Pulte was one of the offenders in Tucson. I've read several complaints, and buyers were very unhappy.
Good point. Crazy time.
Those Lennar homes would be $500k instead of $350k in Leander near Austin. Have a friend that bought a much nicer home for $550k in early 2021 and one year later, the same house was selling for $850k. Though, how many of those new construction homes are under contract? I don't think the builder ever listed my friend's place in MLS. Property taxes in many of these developments are awful also with many having both city and MUD taxes pushing rates to 3% or even higher that will keep out investors. $15k/yr in property taxes on a starter home is insane.
Try Frisco $25k!
@@Investormillard lol wow
@@Investormillard Correctamundo ✔️
Yeah my father and I build large custom homes(north dallas area) we only build 2-3 homes a year though, in 2021 we sold a house in 4 days +$550K, another listed Sep 2022 just sold yesterday 1/24/2023 +$650K sold $40k under listing but took 4 months to sell
The market just shifted again. Now some of the new construction in North Texas is saying they are raising their prices by $10,000 and last Sunday the model homes were flooded with buyers. I'm a realtor in the Dallas area. But when I talk to builder reps in some communities they are desperate. The prices are crazy! You are right about the combination of things; we are just trying to figure it out.
Get ready for another wave of conservatives getting the hell out of psychotic blue states. As much as people on here think TX is bad, there is still another mass exodus coming out of the blue states.
When the prices drop to $50,000. each I'll pick up a few.
so likely next year is pretty promising. That will be great. We appreciate the insider feedback! Hopefully more people hold out instead of fomo and we can bring prices back down to reality.
As a realtor Ive found builders dont put houses in MLS usually right away, I think they hope to find buyers with out a realtor first if they can(personal opinion) but what I’m seeing is builder emails of inventory and incentives I wasn’t getting the last 2 years prior, also grass usually gets put in close to closing! But that is massive amount of vacant lots
It's everywhere here in Texas. I have been up and down all new communities between Bastrop County (east of Austin) and north to Ft. Worth (currently own in Temple, TX). We're even looking at rentals, which is just as bad, nothing is moving here on those either, the rental $$ is down 25-30%, not to mention sales of existing homes. We're just holding out. Want a larger lot, willing to wait.
I live in east Texas, you think the same thing will happen here?
Agree, the lot sizes are too small. Almost sitting on each other backs. Don’t want to buy a house in this type of neighborhoods. Will hear everyone’s conditioner running on your own back yard. No more enjoy for outside. Big NO for me.
All the new houses in my area are on Zillow for rent.(north west Dallas-Denton) I haven’t seen so many houses for rent in the area since maybe 2010. I think they are trying to rent them instead of throwing all of them up for sale right away because they know they can’t sell them. There is also a flood of old houses for rent too, it’s crazy.
Blackstone and Vanguard are buying up the market in order to control it in the future. They are doing this in multiple states so there won't be any owners market in the future and they can push the prices in both markets up.
Yep. I’m sure a lot of those “buyers” are corporations or large investment firms sucking them up just to rent out.
I'm visiting Katy TX, gonna go looking around and start my offers at a maximum of 2018 tax accessed property values + 10% if the owner made some nice improvements..... I'm not going to pay 40-60% more than the tax accessed value of the house, that is crazy! I'll continue driving my 2004 Mazda3 that keeps breaking down on me before paying 5k over asking price on MSRP, no way no way!
I'm looking at cypress and katy also.
New subscriber. My wife is a realtor. We have lived through several real estate cycles. On the market downside is when she was able to build up her business. Listings will be everywhere.
Proof that demand is down: I’ve NOT been watching real estate videos. And I’ve been dying to get into a house for months. I Just don’t care anymore! 😐 maybe later this year.
Been waiting since early 2020....still waiting. Homes went from 150 to 600k 🤦 whenever bubbles like that burst they usually go lower than they were originally. Things gonna get crazy
Same !!
Yes I have not watched lately and I have been watching daily for a year.
If you’re waiting that’s a dumb idea. 2020 and 2021 were great years to buy.
@@cashflowjohnramirez Wrongo Bozo 😉
My concern now is for the build and material quality of the new homes.
A fire, they go up fast, where as my cabin house built in 1940, the wood is hard and condensed. It sits in Missouri.
Agreed. Many are being forced by some states to use more “green” products/materials which is NOT always good. It may save an ant in the Amazon but you’ll be stuck with a crap house.
MLS is not typically used to market new construction. However, in our area some large scale builders are putting more on.
The content creator is being creative I will give him credits that! 🎉
I live in a new subdivision in Texas and yes there are hundreds of homes under construction but if you go into the sales offices of each builder there are almost no spec homes… most of the homes are under contract.., that’s what my wife and I did as well. We moved on with my parents while we saved more money and watched our home get built the way we wanted it over a 12mo period of time…
I just left two new developments about 30min ago. Tons of spec homes. Video dropping tomorrow.
Even though my wife and I already made the call on our purchase of a new build, seeing this reminds me of our sub division in Dallas. We’ve been recording our process on UA-cam and I cross reference with your information to give me a balanced approach and future outlook. These videos are a great edition to my research thanks for all you do.
Where in Dallas?
My favorite show now is your boots on the ground and filmed on location. You don't even breath hard now and look so natural. Your drone footage, clarity and sound is perfect and so professional. You are going be on the TV one day. Just hope you don't forget your UA-cam subscribers when you get famous. Hey I was one of your first subscribers. Lets celebrate when you hit 50K. I am in to contributing to a virtual party.
Same out here suburbs of Seattle. They have pulled back all the stuff not move in ready. The hidden inventory thats piling up and will be complete in 60-120 days is astounding. Lennar and DR Horton are reducing solid 12% and giving $20k towards rate buydown.
Seeing this down near Tacoma too
Massive OB of mega apartments in PDX area.
Also existing homes 🏡 are NOT moving.
Btw Rent control [Gov't involved] is on its way. Long time "mom & pop" holder of 10 rentals are seriously considering cashing out as they seen "the future" (via attending landlord meetings & landlord lobbyists reporting the pulse in local&state governments).
As always, ymmv.
Btw no position.
@@samrapheal1828 It does seem rent control is coming. That will make things wild.
We left the Seattle area to move to Texas. The family-friendly culture was just what we'd hoped to find. There's new friends around every corner! Texas cuisine and farmer's markets are incredible, so I don't miss Seattle for the seafood or good Asian food, either. The Texas sun has seeped into my bones, and it feels wonderful. My garden grows buckets of tomatoes! I encourage anyone thinking of changing states to consider moving to the great State of Texas. We've plenty of room! Come on down, ya'll!
You don’t miss mountains and skiing? Texas people are the NICEST I’ve met - ever.
Just got here! I love it too
Slow down now! Leave your terrible voting habits behind please 🙏
@@5thLegiontrue 💪🏾💪🏾
@@Mav0585 You need sunshine in order to see the mountains, (grin) and we were never skiiers. I'm happier where it's warm! We're so spoiled by the sun, we actually miss the summer months! Lots of years we never had a good week of summer in the PNW, so this is just what we needed. It's about crawfish broil time, and we're getting ready!
I can confirm the new build's dropping prices dramatically. I just went under contract on an 800k home with a 100k price drop (700k new price), 20k in interest rates by down for 3 years, and all closing costs paid for up in DFW (20k builder credit). I feel like this is a good deal, but time will tell if I'm the one holding the bag. TBH, I sold home in ATX April 2022, so I've made out either way and can absorb a 20% decrease without crying to much I suppose.
Property details pls
@@JollyMan69 Light Farms in Prosper Tx
700k) payed 4 my mobile house 22 yrs. Ago) 35k) 3beds 2 baths) any person. Would want a house ) but i bought what i could afford) 700 k ) take your house an shove it where the sun don't shine) an the car dealership ) 100,000 for a truck) only make 12,000 a year) after taxes) you to can take your truck an shove it where the sun don't shine)
Must be nice. This is non existent in northeast. Probably mainly because they don’t build homes in the northeast generally without a buyer. I find it crazy how they pop up neighborhoods down south without contracts
@@rharris8429 Thanks. Builder details if you don’t mind pls
On site inspections is helping very much to make a decision thanks for all you do.
Very serious note
The homes are to close together they need ten foot set backs on both sides of the homes.
Excellent video. I looked at Lennar in San Antonio, TX in mid 2022, and Lennar salesman said no negotiation on home price - even with an all cash buy. Salesman specifically said plenty of institutional buyers purchasing multiple homes at once. Maybe do the purchase at the end of 2023?
This is exactly what I am seeing in the new neighborhoods close to ft worth, TX
Lots of homes from beginning of construction to complete and no buyers. I have noticed “For Rent” signs popping up on many of the completed houses.
We look the same in Florida. We have so much new construction and only a small percent are actually on MLS. They must be hiding the inventory similar to the way banks hid foreclosures during the last crash.
Agree. All north of highway 54 in tampa are hundreds of new build communities. Epperson they are discounting new builds big! Based on my tours, id estimate 20k - 30k homes are in the pipeline for this year. Inventory flood
@@jmoneymillionaire6705 Yes I agree in any buildable areas they have waisted no time clear cutting and putting in huge developments. I guess they thought the bubble would go on forever. I’m in Northeast Florida and they built so many condos, town homes and single family homes it’s mind boggling. Demand is way down and affordability is gone. I don’t know who they think can pay these prices that have doubled in the past 3 years?
@@kellykell9620 right. Things always revert to the long-run average.
Same in Ocala-FL
I didnt know the banks hid the foreclosures last time. They probably hiding them now too
Thanks for showing us that tract Travis. I've been receiving emails from Lennar for Hockey TX and Cleveland TX, some of the properties were in the $300k/$310k range now in the upper $200k price point. The waiting is really hard, 1. YT's telling us a/b Bank Bail-ins, which are true, 2. Some homes are perfect for me and I could buy right now 3. Our government is manipulating the stock market, gold, silver, and I've been reading the Depression Diaries, where back then only gold, silver, worked, even insurance companies stopped paying. Ouch!
yes.a decimation so bad, that "all insurance companies will fold" (were going back a 100 years)....90% drop in retirement worth (or more), if you hold a 2nd mortgage or "any stock....including paper silver and gold," your toast!
@@projectdesign4675 that is exactly what I think too, very well said.
Travis is out among the people!! I love it. Taking these videos too the next level. I believe I speak for us all when we say thank you!! Keep up the great work sir.
Man your content is getting better and better. Thanks bro you representing H-Town greatly
Knowing it was a newer construction site. The guy in the truck was probably like.... "Ok, the house I toured a few weeks ago was right here, no that's not it. Right here! Ugh, no where did it go? I know it had a huge pile of dirt and bricks in the yard. Dangit!
We eneded up talking to the lennar construction manager they were trying to figure out why we were filming
Where around Houston? What about Dallas?
Lots of great info. Thanks. I read there are more then 22,000 new single family houses being built around Houston, and that number does not even include places like Katy and Fulshear where hundreds (if not thousands) of houses as well as massive apartment complexes are going up. I agree with you-----we are going to see a doozy correction downward.
I agree. Born and raised in the Houston area, so I have witnessed the crazy development for 50 years. Any remotely affordable area here is taken over by immigrants and/or illegals. It’s the main driver of the housing market here. Americans sell to upgrade for greener pastures, and it keeps them in debt. It’s why well over 1/2 the clients I help with investing can’t afford to contribute much to a 401k.
I hope so .really badly.
@@jgringo5516 it doesn't help that the federal government subsidies those immigrants or asylum seekers.
@@cl-7832 And another $12 Billion for Ukraine, and zero for American citizens.
Lennar, DR Horton and M/I have great incentives right now with closing cost perks in Florida. Similar drops as Texas. Old construction is higher than new construction.
This is going to be perfect for me and my wife. We are renting in San Antonio and we are already seeing prices come down on houses of similar quality for a hair under 300K. I don’t really want to live in an HOA. I’m hoping to find a bigger property that may be a little older but not completely against it.
I love how real you are bro I go through a lot of videos on UA-cam and I see a lot of people selling us on real estate 🐂 shit.
Lennar's reputation as a builder leaves a lot to be desired from info I've seen across the Internet.
I'd like to see you do a similar video in the communities out west of Austin, like Bee Caves off Hamilton Pool Rd, Hiway 71 N of 620, & Dripping Springs areas. These are areas outside Austin where prices have gone crazy. Wonder if they'll ever go back to normal like they were a few years ago before prices went⤴️
yes, but dont expect the tax to be the same 3 yrs ago,. From past pattern, the appraisal office going to increase the tax rate though. And the realtor & local govt & builders will lobby to pressure FAnnie Mae to issue 40 yr mortgage loan, so price may not go down that much , but builder would have a hard time building new home.
Lennar is a joke. Bought one in Florida brand new. Fridge lasted 6 mts. Went to open cabinets kitchen bathroom wasn't even attached. I had so much stuff to do myself and I'm a woman. Windows are not sealed off. Idk they cut corners inferior building supply as well as workers. They literally put the cabinets together and didnt put the screws in. Horrible homes
Do your inspections and do your homework on the Builders. Homes in the 90's built in NorCal were built with moldy sheetrock from China and the framing was shoddy and the winds had walls leaning 2-3" out of square within 5 years. Older homes that have stood the test of time were also built better and used better materials. Be diligent and don't make a hasty decision if it doesn't feel right.
Hey Travis, how do you know how many homes are pre-sold homes vs. spec. home? A pre-sold home isn’t going to show up on the MLS is it?
Do Dallas
New homes sales are Crazy…actually TEXAS PROPERTY TAXES are crazy….BUYER BEWARE 😮
High property taxes?
@@vegewoman Yes, the prices are so high that they don't match salaries. Therefore, eventually everyone will have to rent without buying options.
@@vegewoman just get a van life. Way much more affordable
@@vegewoman
Elon Musk: owns no house
Warren Buffett: says Real Estate is a lousy place
There should be some great deals out there on new construction especially the longer they sit due to taxes. The only thing that I see on the flip side will be to really pay attention to inflated appraised values that you'll be paying in taxes. Be aware of your property taxes for your home 🏡
I wonder what the truck wanted? I appreciate your tenacity and sticking with providing the real life examples that connect to the data or lack of (hiding of inventory).
That was his truck lol 😂
probably just making sure there’s no funny business going on and that the new homes aren’t being broken into or messed with
Argubaly, the housing market is so inflated, that a 30% decrease would just put things into "slightly above" normal. Normal homes should not be worth 600k and up when average income is 80k.
There are an insane amount of new construction in and around Crowley and Fort Worth. Apartments and houses both. Just don't see how they are going to fill all of these.
Thanks so much!! But when did the rates go down?? Where can we get rates in the 4s??
At the end of they day, if you’re looking to LIVE in your home and not flip, price fluctuations don’t really matter in the long run. If you need a place to stay, buy a home.
I recommend everyone to wait until end of 2nd quarter. Don’t catch the falling knife now…..
I really enjoyed your video on putting in an offer. Thanks for the updates. I have noticed substantial drops, but the average home is still well above 2020 where I live. New home builds are adjusting faster, but I don't want to live in one of the new neighborhoods I hope you are right that the market keeps adjusting because I can't buy until the end of 2023 because I'm moving. I'll be devastated if the houses start spiking again.
Nice to see Brick being used ‼️
What are average taxes for these homes ????
10%-15% price cuts is nothing considering the 100% increases over 5 years.
Dream on fool🤦♂️
How are things in established neighborhoods in the city? Houses in the suburbs loose their value more and faster than in the City. The neighborhood you are viewing seems to be in the middle of nowhere, a two or three hour drive to Austin. I still am getting calls and mail from fast talking realtors wanting to buy my house in San Antonio,. How do you think the exceptional, historically low unemployment rate will impact purchasing of homes?
From news reports and comments, new home construction is very poor and risky, regardless of the price.
What is the average Square foot Price of the homes that you are currently walking thru.?
I visited Texas in December. Went to New Braunfels, homes are 700k and over!!! How in the heck are they this much? Just like Cali. We used to think TX was the way to go just to buy and retire!! Well here you go. Prices are just too high for your regular mid income family to buy!
Thank you for these walk updates!
Neighborhood looks beautiful especially with the surrounding trees. A new home community near me by Katy also has lots of new construction, and the scenery at sunset looks very nice overlooking farmland, fountains, and distant city lights.
Also yeah that Dodge truck was super sketchy.
Stay safe, bro!
The neighborhood looks good because nobody moved in yet. It's the people who make a or any neighborhood good or the worst 🙂
Katy is overcrowded now traffic all the time
Surrounding trees? Those houses are 10ft max from each other. Katy is flat and boring. I'm glad people out there like those houses, no way for this guy.
Move towards mountains, rivers, or anything else for "scenery". A fountain, really???
San Antonio, west side 1604, prices has gone up 5k in one month. The city of San Antonio has increase expansions of the city. Plus, we have a lot companies running from Austin and Dallas to San Antonio. The city still consider cheap.
This happended in 2010-12 in Georgia, and people still could not afford and the local governments bought those new houses and turned them into section 8 houses… smaller counties in Georgia are building hundreds of hundreds of houses too…hopefully these don’t get bought by the governments again.
The military might be moving in.
Yes they r new homes but the older homes from 80s back are in better quality & material than the current. U can purchase an old house & invest on updating it with small things like windows etc
Institutional investors would be lining up to buy those homes in bulk at 15% off if they didn't think there was going to be a 30%+ crash. And there will be.
Nah. Institutional investors were some of the ones that bought them and are losing their butts on them.
Agreed. I personally believe, based on my area and numbers, it’ll be closer to 50%
😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@theroyalcapra Exactamondo 💯
You can buy these homes via the developer website right? I’m so lost 😂😂😂 what institutional investors buying these homes. They are new build.
Travis I watch all your videos, but this is only my second comment. I live in Chicago and I’m looking for a home in the suburbs. Homes haven’t dropped much yet but the unaffordability is as bad as anywhere with the very high property taxes ($700-$1000 a month) and high interest rates. There has been some new home building in the Elgin suburb but not nearly as much as in other states, so maybe thats keeping the housing prices high. I can buy now and I’m ready now but I’m hoping by the end of this year the homes will be more affordable and ill find a deal.
I think you going to be in good shape brother thank you for commenting
Another Real Estate UA-camr said Texas & Floriduh are going to be ground zero for the housing meltdown. These are the cheapest places to buy (new) homes in the US.
Especially with this new storm heading towards FL. Many people are moving out after realizing their paradise isn't very paradisey.
My dilemma is that I have 4 properties ready with absolutely great offers on them.....I want to 1031 them but I'm afraid that I won't be able to time it just right and end up paying too much for my next set of properties. I see the prices falling but I also see builders still building. In the last crash.....they stopped building rather quickly.
In Austin thousands of people were on a wait list for a new home. These homes are probably all of the people who are finally getting their home built. That’s why it isn’t listed on MLS.
I agree, we work here in Dallas and most new homes that are being built are already sold. I’m talking about multiple subdivisions and from different builders.
I don't understand why people aren't listening. Please, guys, pay attention. It would literally take you less than 10 minutes to call these sales officies and actually learn for yourself. Don't forget the historical high cancelation rate. Pay attention!!!!
FYI That subdivisions is not shocking at all. It is a very basic small ass subdivision of 300 homes.
Large subdivisions are much large 800 homes plus and this is for Canadian standards. But what your saying is really amazing. Affordable housing. Buy at the right time! Amazing!
I’ve seen housing drop 20% in the dfw area almost over night depending on the area.
Ask Lennar about all the homes that have already flooded over there as well as all of the houses falling apart from being built on sand as well as poor construction. That whole development is right on the creek. Plus it's an ETJ for the City of Houston, so enjoy those taxes. Don't believe me? Drive around and look at all the storm drain covers. "City of Houston" all over them.
Supposedly builders are reporting close to 70 % cancellations. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
KB Homes did. They’re a CA builder
@@GT-dl3gq Correctamundo maximus 💯
I don’t see institutional investors buying new houses near Houston anytime soon. The property taxes and MUD taxes and HOA fees and insurance make the monthly costs way higher than what the houses would rent for.
So I had posted a while back when you said we shouldn’t buy or sell at this point in time about 2 months again! Well we sold our home in Texas and we bought a home cash in Louisiana! We love it and we are happy that it worked out for us. We did it. We got a good deal on both ends we feel and we love our home now! It can be done
Nothing new, it's called downgrading markets. Works for those who are looking for that kind of shift. Try doing the opposite (LA to TX metro) and get back to us.
@@GonzoT38 I don’t need to! I wanted to get the hell out of Texas
We see the same thing here in Northern California, just outside Sacramento. Also, entire new neighborhoods with slabs poured with no construction done. Why? Because developers know that they cannot sell existing inventory, let alone sink more liquid capital into more construction. This is not great news for the macro economy, but it is great for the shrewd home buyer!
@Greg Beaudry - Exactamondo. And the [highly inflated] rental mrkts will experience a "gravity sucks" phenomenon.
"History does not repeat itself. But it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
Travis Bro you are the best. Thank You for bringing us along and exploring neighborhoods. Invaluable for us outside TX considering moving.
It sounds wierd , but aren't developpers suppose to presale like 75%...before starting construction if they want want their bank loan to be available ...or the rules are more loose in Texas
So, I tried to get a new construction loan recently 1/19/23 and it was like pulling teeth. I think the lenders are buckling down, even in the face of near destruction in the housing market. Fear is going to hit hard and selling will hit harder
Why would it be on the MLS if they are a build to order community?
Most big builders have a contract before they build...
The real fact is to determine if new builders are planning on building in 2023. I think the inventory built up is going to stay as long as interests rates remain at 6% plus. This rate is historically the norm and with the national debt coupled with inflation I do not see a return to below 4 %. So the only buyers will be those forced to move due to careers and others will sit this out until rates change or the prices drop enough to bottom out at 10% above costs. The mad rush downward will go in phases to get rid of their inventory. The guessing game is where the prices bottom out to get the buyer back in the market. Does any builder have the ability to sit out a year? Look for an implosion when critical mass hits. I just wonder if the banks are leery in offering the builders loans? If that happens watch the brakes put on which I think the Fed really wants. Builder Kaufman Broad Homes had posted a 60% cancellation rate for new homes. The bloodbath has started. I agree don't buy because the foreclosures will be kicking in to provide young couples an opportunity or wait for the bottom of the trough in new housing. Grab the popcorn. Well done, Travis. Kingman AZ and love it.
Where is this new homes located?
Still shots or drone shots would bring about a bigger shock then walking.
Prices of new homes going down certainly is good news, but with interest rates still high (resulting in a MUCH higher monthly mortgage pay't), I still wouldn't even TRY to buy now as lower home prices isn't enough -- interest rates need to go WAY down first. If both of those happen then I definitely WILL be looking to buy...but not here in Texas, would be going back to Colorado (Springs).
-- BR
😊😊😊😊😊 YOU ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST “Boots on the ground” videos.
Why do you think that they’re hiding this?
Just waiting it out??
This is so crazy 😜.
Thank you Travis, Carlos
The bigger fool theory, I think that is why they're hiding it Carlos, let's see what Travis says.
If they place one or two on MLS it brings buyers to the addition and then if the buyer offers on a home that is not listed and they buyer is not represented by an agent the builder does not have to pay commissions
Could be to avoid paying property taxes on the dwelling, plus my guess is they don't won't to flood MLS. This is happening all around my city. It's going to be fun to cover this all year
They want the collapse to be a surprise
Builders deserve what they get. They are the main reason for this market. Ridiculous pricing and incremental increases really pushing the prices. They deserve it.
I’m planning on buying around the DFW area when I get out of the army. Do you think August/September will be a good time to buy?
rates in the US are only going higher but homes prices will continue to drop. "date the rate"
Thank you for your honesty and not trying to sell sell…
Thanks bro great video…my wife an I also was told about a lot of homes off 105 Conroe Tri point builders not on market but getting built
Serious question for those actually in the know:
Why do people keep saying that newly built homes are made poorly and that builders cut corners? How are they cutting corners? Wouldn't home inspectors catch these issues? Is it really better to buy an older home?
Thank you so much for your videos. We are on the sidelines waiting to buy after we sold our house a year and half ago! We are in Fort Worth and would love some guidance. We were thinking about buying before August since that’s when our lease is up. I will keep my eye on your reports. What would you advise for us to do to start getting ready for when opportunity comes. Thanks so much
What put y'all on the sidelines? Not necessarily a bad thing to wait if that's a good fit for your timing, but prices tend to be friendlier to buyers when rates are relatively higher :)
I'm in NE Houston. Getting approved right now isn't going well, so we're going to rent a little house for the meantime. These houses are huge, like the mansions in Virginia where I moved from, for a fraction of the costs. My dream home is out there somewhere.
The reason the homes are not in MLS is because they're already sold. Pre-construction
Sold homes go in the mls until the are closed so that’s not accurate
This seems very sage advice. I see the same thing happening here in FL. Houses selling much more slowly as a result of diminishing buyers. The interest rate hikes have really been the nail in the coffin. These large housing developments in some circumstances may take years to complete. All of these limitless expectations are now facing the actual facts.
Property tax in texas is the issue…i would have bought a while ago if it wasn’t for how high it is
How many percent for property tax? 🙄
Property tax is not an issue bc we don’t have income tax
@@lelelum4103 thats a lie, pulling roughly 150-200 dollars from my check, as opposed to paying 500-700 dollars a month in property tax added to your mortgage, and i live in north Dallas, is not a great trade off from where i am standing, currently looking for a house here
@@newyorkbo1 I work in payroll it’s more than 150-200 they are paying in state income tax
@@lelelum4103 that’s what i said
Where I am interested in buying is a master plan just like this one. It's in nexton (Summervile) South Carolina, about 1/3 of the houses are owned, 1/3 are listed and/or being built, and 1/3 are dirt lots. Many home builders are in this same plan, and they are being SO reluctant to lower prices... trying to be patient
Like all your videos, keep up the good work!! How much would rentals go for in that area? what are the amenities
where in texas?
Hey are the subs still getting paid? if so then it's not that bad yet once they start to hold money to the subs that's the time to worry.
Great information, thank you. I've had my eye on some potential properties in TX, and this gives me much greater insight in how to proceed.
Houston area is great for rentals (flood history flood history flood history). But trash to live. Just my personal opinion.
Ever since they said we we’re getting a universal studios builders around this north Texas area are backlogged
The more homes that have to be sold in a particular area, the greater chance of getting a lower price. Homes in desirable areas usually have more buyers than sellers. As a result, prices tend to be higher. Typically, these areas have more desirable schools, location, prestige.
Exactly. Buyer demand will be directing all of the builders decisions. The longer those houses sit, the more panicked builders get.
MLS means that the price it way too high. Those houses are so close together they might as well be apartment buildings. I have a truck, I put a sign on it, For Sale $100000 and then drew a line thru that and put $80000. What is my truck really worth? Those houses on the tiny lots aren't worth $50000.