Lutz is a Putz. He completely missed the transition to electric vehicles. The world is going all electric. ICE vehicle sales are falling every year. He is an OLD time motor head who is living in the past not looking to the future.
Completely false. Lutz was there during development of the Volt and although GM dropped the ball on it, Lutz was right that hybrid powertrains were the future.
Yep I saw that happen on my old Corsa C. Granted, it was 16 years old but it did start to lose power when going up and slowing down where it would have had no problems keeping a constant high speed in 5th gear when I got it. Mechanic said that other than a full engine rebuild, there's not much else that I could do.
I also want to hear what his excuse is for GM’s and pretty much all of the legacy brands downward spiral. What happened to all the “Tesla Killers coming to market”? Or is he just going to cop out and tell the interviewer not to ask those questions.
Even this study is being conservative imho: - Sure 1-1.8% battery degradation per year might be a good conservative figure to go by. Better to be conservative and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around. - A study on the fleet of older Teslas has fairly consistently shown that the vehicles hit around 92-94 percent of original capacity by the 200k mile mark. (Source:Steinbuch Tesla Model S battery degradation data). - Battery chemistries are improving, both in terms of existing NMC/NCMA stuff, and in terms of introduction of the LFP (iron phosphate) ones, which last many times longer but trade that in for slightly lower energy density, a good compromise for entry/mainstream EV trims.
HUGE! The meaning of batteries lasting longer than vehicles means that over time a HUGE supply of used batteries would become a reality - likely at lower cost than used engines. This would completely destroy batttery life FUD. Also, as data is collected and verified, EV battery warranty will be extended to 200,000 miles or more - pretty much killing any battery life concern.
catl have 18000 engineers to develop their battery, the advancement (cheaper, safer, longevity, etc) will be quick. byd have 90000 engineers, but I don't know how many are working with battery development.
Except you cant do battery swaps in any current popular EV without work that ends up costing the same as the vehicle. The interesting thing about an oversupply of used batteries is how they could maybe be chained into grid storage, but there's a lot of barriers in the way of that actually working right now.
@@ethanwelner1230 Battery swap in most EVs (esp in Teslas) takes less than an hour (few plugs, some bolts and recirculating the fluid - which can be done from Tesla service mode screen without the need for any special tools). Compare that to swapping an engine which takes 8-20 hours depending on model.
GeoTab got one thing wrong. After about 50K miles battery degradation slows significantly. We should not be surprised that it degrades on a curve. It would be very odd if it were linear. In short it is much better than GenTab is reporting. Not every one will have the same experience but: A crowd sourced study by Tesla owners showed Model S owners experiencing an average degradation of around 10% after 150,000 or even 200,000 miles
I wouldn't trust a crowd sources study of tesla owners to do much more than promote dogecoin. I'd rather get real information from actual fleet operators.
It's been pretty much a straight line for me and my Volt at about 15% degradation across 10 years and 100,000 miles. The sheer number of data sources make Geo Tab's observations difficult to refute.
@@KTPurdy Probably varies allot by the many chemistries and thermal management solutions out there, hard to say for sure. Battery chemistries continue to improve as well, in both NMC/NCMA space as well as rise of LFP, which trades some energy density for many times higher cell life. Either way, it tells us these packs will easily outlast any ICE car in general, past 250k miles and without a problem, and even >500k miles is realistic depending on use case.
@@KTPurdy The Volt is an NMC battery, no? The Model S uses NCA cells. Other vehicles use LFP, generally known for long cycle life. No matter how much data is included, aggregating these and other chemistries into a single "EV batteries degrade X% per year" seems possibly misleading and worth questioning [still, the overall message is good if not already known, that battery packs should last the useful life of the vehicle ]
The transition to all electric vehicles is inevitable. Slow walking the transition will only make it worse for the auto makers. VW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Porsche, BMW and the rest will continue to lose ICE sales.
BEV are disposable vehicles. Batteries are to expensive to ever replace with a new battery and another used battery will have degraded capacity as well.
@@matthewhuszarik4173the contemporary battery degrade is just a much as ice lose compression over years. Ive seen tons Taxi clock ing half million kilometer with almost no battery degration. Even for the first gen BYD E5 with over 10 years of service, it still retain 50% capacity. That is old tech. With the current tech. The degrade will be even less. You petrol head need to face the reality. The emission standard and the fuel consumption requirement in legistration is the noose on the ICE. Unless there emission standard and fuel consumption requirement get roll back. The requirements will becomes impractical to achived for ICE within a decade.
The GeoTab report on high voltage battery life should give automakers confidence to increase battery warranties. The first to do this could have a real advantage. I remember when Kia made great progress in the US market by offering a 10 year warranty on gas cars.
People focus on the 'mandate/ICE Ban' theatrics. We should be paying attention to where DEMAND is moving. DEMAND is why people chose to buy cheap efficient Japanese vehicles over crap US Autos in the 80s. DEMAND is why consumers are purchasing BEVs now, not 'mandates'. Legacy automakers complaining about 'mandates' and 'bans' affecting their sales of obsolete tech are wagging the dog.
And, before moaning about that ban, it is worth considering: The latest evaluation of the progress of climate change and the progress of the energy transition indicates that if we stay on our current foot dragging pace of change, the effects of the resulting climate change will cost fully 18% of global GDP.
It's usually not even the legacy auto that complains about it. It used to be oil companies that funded this fud but now even they have moved on to investing that money into building out their charger infrastructure instead.
We won't ban cell phone use in cars but we'll mandate backseat sensors...what a shit show of a society we have become. Life expectancy on the decline, traffic deaths on the incline and technology all over the place to combat both...makes a guy wonder if they're actually trying to help or just make a buck.
Make the vehicles larger, faster, heavier, and give them smaller windows. Upcharge because they're so big and powerful. Now they're dangerous. Upcharge for the "safety tech". It's a racket, this is all just so they can charge more. They could lower the bumpers or hoods or give actual rear visibility to a vehicle, but you cant charge an extra few grand for making simple safety decisions. Right now the cybertruck is by far the worst offender in this cynical vicious cycle but they're all doing it.
All cell phones should have to go into Driving/Airplane mode when cars are on... That would save more lives than all these semi-useless gadgets which a new study found to be a driver distraction... No shit!
Feel like the channel is missing the bigger picture. How many cars does the world need, can we have? the ups and downs of sales based upon quarterly numbers is problematic for a variety reasons. We cannot sustain the capacity of production and profit.
You were talking today about being able to set the time when the car would charge to make it so is fully charged when you need it. That's not how people around here use it. You said it so that it starts charging your car after 9:00 p.m. and it gets through before 6:00 a.m. in the morning and that way the cost of the charge is for less because you've done it in the middle of the night.
8:50 or thereabouts, the comment on EV's impacting the grid stability??? come on, one midsize data center can equal over 290,000 miles driven every day it is operating. Please dive deeper into that story to end the lies of grid burdens for EV's
The report focusing on cobalt didn't mention anything about the oil industry using cobalt to remove sulfur from crude oil? Makes me wonder who put this paper out.
A Tesla mod S taxi has gone way over 400,000 miles in Britain , it used mostly the free Tesla Supercharging network, vlogger Rory interviewed the owner a few times
I've owned a Model Y for 4 years and it's lost exactly 1%.... You don't charge past 80%, you don't leave it fully charged, and you prep the battery if you need 100% for a long trip.... I thought Lutz was coming around but apparently, he's been dipped in the tank of dumb. Or fallen out of the dumb tree and hit every branch on the way down. I don't care who your guests are, but it would be nice if you could find some that aren't completely batshit biased.
Where do you live? If you go ask a transit commuter, most will tell you it be nice to have their own car. When you have car, you absolutely neglect the inconveniences of taking mass transit. For example as a mother, how do you take care of two kids while carrying groceries and while it rains. How do you buy fertilizer for your yard? Or large cases of anything. How do you carry an entire cart of groceries? It's doable of course but extremely inconvenient.
@@taniabanes4707 Not being able to afford busses at all like most american towns is worse. Have fun walking on the non existent sidewalk to your job at a 7/11.
So if those concerns about Lithium mining and refining are so broad spread, I guess that's gonna be bad news for power tools, smart phones, home and grid scale battery storage, etc, etc, etc? I've grown up with incidents like Exxon Valdez, Deep Water Horizon and numerous pipeline issues where people were incinerated... Pretty sure oil has been (and continues to be) the real reason for deadly wars and invasions... Even the oil and gas sanctions placed on Russia following the events in Ukraine are effectively bypassed (sold to India and Saudi before making its way back onto the global markets)...so this is just a set up to kick China and countries the US doesn't like... A global rules based order, sure but fair and applied equally, no chance!
Prolonging the ICE mandate will not make any significant difference. The vast majority of youngsters in cities are teached about emissions and climate changes, the majority will not buy ICE cars.
Love you guys, you do great work, and I listen daily. But can you please try to get guests on AL After Hours once in a while who are under 50? It seems having perspectives of younger people in the auto industry who have their finger on the pulse of what’s coming in the near future and what younger people (20-40) are gravitating towards would give some fresh insights. Thank you.
Battery price is decreasing at a rate of 10~15% a year and since the battery is the most expensive component in an EV, EV price is decreasing at a rate of 5~10% a year. ICE price is buttomed out while EV can go lower because it's fundamentally a less complex and more reliable design Unless Europe can come out with strong EVs, it will not only lose the Chinese market, it will lose a lot of international markets
Bob Lutz got Tesla wrong years ago. Let’s see if he has a new positive take on Tesla now. If he is really tuned into what is happening in the auto industry as whole, he will see right through the stalling of the legacy automotive industry EV Efforts with the sidestep into Hybrid Land as a serious misstep!
I'm not sure he's gonna see Teslas falling sales and erratic and self destructive leadership and have good things to say. Hyundai might get some praise though.
@@ethanwelner1230 Tesla still has EV Technology that is way more efficient and profitable than Hyundai/Kia can produce. Remember, Tesla is the only EV manufacturer that actually makes a healthy profit! That includes the best South Korea, China, Europe and the rest of the USA including Rivian, Lucid and all of Detroit has come up with!
Chargescape, something that Tesla has already been doing. Pretty pathetic that three large companies can’t get together to come up with a novel idea. Best they can do is copy other companies.
So if a city of 10,000 people all buy new cars. when will this city of 10,000 people be required to buy new cars again so it doesn't effect the auto industries planned growth?
You are right, Legacy Auto could not have pulled off whompy wheels, building cars in tents, infinite BOM revisions because $andy Munro said you only have to worry about first principles, the CyberBust, FSD (Supervised) promises that will never be fulfilled, laughing at BYD ("Have you seen their cars?"), firing the SlowCharger team due to ego, and building the same car based on a 2008 design with zero ability to improve it.
@@bobbbobb4663 And with just about everything you just mentioned Legacy couldn't even top that. After all that "All In" Bulls**t They had to go back and suck Hybrid teet. Pitiful.
@@bobbbobb4663 Lets see what the second gen EVs are like from legacy auto.The ones that will have ANY chance will be so Tesla-like is gonna be comical.
@@dclpgh What is comical is that you and the rest of the diversion team are laser focused on the legacies when the reality is that BYD has completely overtaken Tesla. Is Adrian still laughing at BYD?
A big back lash against Chinese imported cars - only by the workers who may lose their jobs. Definitely not by the public who will purchase based on price and quality.
Just as Tesla revolutionized the Auto industry it will change the Semi transportation industry, a consortium is in talks to have Semi Charging from California to Texas ,in the news.😊
Coworkers model 3 is at 19% degradation (out of warranty), he has gotten worse than 1.8%...Standard deviation? Extreme points? Maybe share the numbers?
How does he charge it? Year? Mileage? Battery type? Maybe share the numbers? Note: There are always exceptions. Plenty of ICE vehicles croak before 50k miles. But it's not the norm.
@@Gig0Surf 2019 M3, was at 19% at 175k miles beginning of the year. 180 mile daily commute (San Diego to Irvine and back), level 2 charging at home. Loves the car, he used to be able to do the commute only charging at home, now he doesn’t have the range.
I need clarification about the statement at 4:40 regarding 1.8%/year battery degrading. How can battery mfgs like CATL offer 15 year replacement warratines if the batteries fall below 85%. At 1.8%, the battery would drop to 73% in 15 years. Also, how does MG in Thailand now offer lifetime battery warranties on some of their models?
😂I wanna comment on that. But figure just screw it. The outlet is running by intrest group from Detorit. It is not like Mercedes care much about the 10% anyway. Mercedes themselves is somewhat controlled by Geely group. I guess that is part of Gelly's bussiness plan.
Depends on how good the economy is, LFP might be losing its heat if cargo boat that needed iron ores for steel needs to buy up all the irons. I’m guessing these 4K tonnages boats just recently came out of supply chain shock, so it’s really depends on macro stimulus or how much of easing some newly developing nation are doing(it actually hurts them more than people realizes because these countries have no competing edge, R&D wise it’s on the bottom list plus it’s private companies are sort of like colonial vessels for strong economic nations to take advantage off, even it’s stronger influences like politicians and corporate ceos are more so on the leeching side. At best put the population on 40-70 years of debt that needs 3 generations to pay back…😢 as someone from more privileged nation sometimes I get to see these stuff but what can I say, some of the population in these country think this is good, jobs, without realizing rampant inflation, then move to another nation, then you know the whole stuff. (Kinda don’t want that to happen tho, I heard new Tesla juniper had 20% range increase on its LFP battery, keep it low and make LFP standardize is good for consumers overall) Oh yeah as long as China and other country don’t do these encouraging other nations to do mass infrastructure iron ore wouldn’t go up, building and bridges needs iron, also consumption for vehicle needs iron. (Sometimes very unethical, debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but its ability of knowing what’s good debt and what’s bad, based on the record there’s a reason why some of the nations couldn’t get loans from us and Europe(eu is quite corrupt as well, just ask some of the politicians that took money, they might have to clean themselves up) Welp, frustrating situation 😂
So, you lose 36% battery life after 20 years. It's probably not linear, but let's say 18% at 10. Does this correlate to the loss in range? Does a BEV with a 300 mile range have a range of only 246 after 10 years? I've seen data from Tesla showing the loss in range can be more than the loss in battery life. It's good that the technology is making the batteries last longer, and thus pushing back the high cost of an inevitable replacement. Howevver, if the loss in range is still relatively high, then that remains an issue for some buyers.
Battery life directly relates to range. Take A 60kwh battery with 240 miles of range (4mi/kwh) at 100% battery life. 90% battery life means the pack is only holding 54kwh and supplying 216 miles of range. However, the reality is that the issue is battery cycles. My 2017 Bolt EV had 8% range/battery degradation at 5 years, but had also driven over 100k miles on the original battery pack. At that rate, I could expect to hit 20% range loss somewhere over 200k miles. EV batteries are considered 'unfit for purpose' at 70%, so realistically I could have expected the original battery to have lasted over 250k miles, or over 20 years at an average of 12k miles per year. By 20 years, I would be more concerned with replacing the car than replacing the battery.
No UAW news about them getting to ready strike against Stellantis any day now? I think Stellantis should stop selling Fiat here America and focus on Chrysler when it comes to EVs.
@@ethanwelner1230 I wouldn't go that far, but if their Panda EV isn't planned for the US then they don't have any appealing vehicles worth selling here.
Coddling to Legacy Auto is preventing good decisions. Tesla and some Chinese brands are light years ahead of Legacy. Legacy auto are dinosaurs. Your Friday shows highlight the development improvements modern auto makers are using. That will kill legacy as Tony Seba predicts in his 2014, "Clean Disruption." Please read it. All of his predictions have come true.
Chinese companies are only ahead because they’ve stolen patents (because they’re also making the microchips for the global industry) and have stolen every scrap of info from ALL companies that partner with them… It’s espionage, not innovation.
Ahh yes, Tesla, the company that made a 100 thousand dollar triangle and who's sales are falling. The Tesla story was very exciting and they forced the industry to change significantly, but the Tesla that made brilliant decisions and delivered amazing new products has been gone for years. It's just a stock meme run by a psychopath now. Their growth story is over.
50,000 Tesla trucks per year by 2026 and the factory hasn't been built yet? Who is going to buy these trucks, where are the pre-orders? Which vehicle manufacturer has ever build a factory and ramped up production anywhere near that in such a short period of time?
nobody 'made' people buy gas cars - they bought what worked for their needs and budget. The same thing is happening with BEVs, but everyone is distracted by 'mandate' theatrics.
64% of battery capacity after 20 years isn’t good enough when a replacement battery totals the car. So a car originally with a theoretical 300 mile of range will only have a theoretical 200 mile of range in 20 years and only 120 functional mile range. I have a 27 year old Dodge truck that is all original except consumables. It still has a functional range of over 300 miles. No wonder BEV values drop like a rock they are disposable vehicles.
1.6 kW a mile that's gas guzzler terms with only 500 miles of range. You can't go anywhere with that. I mean a diesel get 6 to 8 miles to the gallon but can go 15 to 2000 miles a full 300 gallon tank
VW has a strong technology lead in ICE engines and should concentrate more on its core technology competency - like Toyota! VW, BMW, AMG and all German automakers must stick to their core competence in ICE engine cars and leave EVs to Tesla and Chinese car makers.
So what happens when evs take over in future they are fucked BC they late to the part while others are established they are just getting started thats one way to go bankrupt
I love ICE cars the way I love a $5K Rolex over a $10 Casio. How far do you think BEV’s would have gotten without MASSIVE government regulations, pollution credit sales, and Chinese government largesse and dictates from on-high? The answer is, NOWHERE. I would government to stay the “F” out of our lives.
It's easy to say when there isnt that many factories and million people living in your city but that's what happening in East Asia countries. To keep city air clean that the best way they come up with it reducing noise and oil consumption within the city.
Keep in mind, 64% of usable battery capacity comes off of the upper range of a vehicle, so if it had 300 miles when new, that would fall to 192 miles, and in the real world, in the winter it would probably be down to about 120 miles - pretty useless for most people. Do ICE vehicles loose range like that???
@@2cartalkers But what about those Tesla Semi owners who need to haul in those winter climates. Buy a diesel backup truck? Or are you saying Leon's vision is flawed?
Tesla Semi News: 50,000 units / year promised by 2026! No wait, 50,000 units / year by 2024! No wait, 100,000 units / year promised by 2022! No wait, scale production in 12-18 months promised in 2017!
@@russh6414 The outrage will get here after Adrian announces that HW3 cannot handle the new "stack". Of course, we both know that the Tesla sensor suite is not complete anyway but it's one more promise broken from babysmurf9000.
@@russh6414Fortunately we bought ours to drive it and weren’t interested in FSD or sending out the vehicle as a Robotaxi. I’m a simple guy but knew that my Tesla would never be capable of being a Robotaxi and that Elon was lying. Hell, most people couldn’t figure out how to open the doors either from outside or inside so completely impractical as a Robotaxi even if the hardware/software ever worked. But those who believed the bullshit that the new owner of ‘Shitter’ constantly vomited out would be pissed if they weren’t full on in the cult which many are.
Lutz is a Putz. He completely missed the transition to electric vehicles.
The world is going all electric. ICE vehicle sales are falling every year.
He is an OLD time motor head who is living in the past not looking to the future.
But definitely more respected then you on automobile knowledge!
Completely false. Lutz was there during development of the Volt and although GM dropped the ball on it, Lutz was right that hybrid powertrains were the future.
Nobody missed anything. The auto-market is highly polarized. Not every consumer wants a BEV. And hybrids are outselling BEVs in North America.
He doesn't know anything about Chinese manufactured EVs EITHER.
IIRC he was key to supporting the Volt during his tenure at GM
Over time, ice engines lose horsepower torque and efficiency...
Yep I saw that happen on my old Corsa C. Granted, it was 16 years old but it did start to lose power when going up and slowing down where it would have had no problems keeping a constant high speed in 5th gear when I got it. Mechanic said that other than a full engine rebuild, there's not much else that I could do.
@@Luka_3D Happens to every ice engine, it's inevitable over time
Sooner on direct injection, turbo cars
Someone must be getting money out of the hydrogen scam, any good engineer could tell it's inefficient, impractical, even for trucks
Bob Lutz can answer to his predictions about Tesla.
Thank you
😆
Honestly that would be pretty entertaining...
" Lutz previously predicted Tesla was headed for the "graveyard."Jan 8, 2020
I also want to hear what his excuse is for GM’s and pretty much all of the legacy brands downward spiral. What happened to all the “Tesla Killers coming to market”? Or is he just going to cop out and tell the interviewer not to ask those questions.
Even this study is being conservative imho:
- Sure 1-1.8% battery degradation per year might be a good conservative figure to go by. Better to be conservative and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around.
- A study on the fleet of older Teslas has fairly consistently shown that the vehicles hit around 92-94 percent of original capacity by the 200k mile mark. (Source:Steinbuch Tesla Model S battery degradation data).
- Battery chemistries are improving, both in terms of existing NMC/NCMA stuff, and in terms of introduction of the LFP (iron phosphate) ones, which last many times longer but trade that in for slightly lower energy density, a good compromise for entry/mainstream EV trims.
HUGE! The meaning of batteries lasting longer than vehicles means that over time a HUGE supply of used batteries would become a reality - likely at lower cost than used engines. This would completely destroy batttery life FUD. Also, as data is collected and verified, EV battery warranty will be extended to 200,000 miles or more - pretty much killing any battery life concern.
In China, they already have 600,000 mile warranties on some car batteries...
catl have 18000 engineers to develop their battery, the advancement (cheaper, safer, longevity, etc) will be quick. byd have 90000 engineers, but I don't know how many are working with battery development.
Except you cant do battery swaps in any current popular EV without work that ends up costing the same as the vehicle. The interesting thing about an oversupply of used batteries is how they could maybe be chained into grid storage, but there's a lot of barriers in the way of that actually working right now.
@@ethanwelner1230 Battery swap in most EVs (esp in Teslas) takes less than an hour (few plugs, some bolts and recirculating the fluid - which can be done from Tesla service mode screen without the need for any special tools). Compare that to swapping an engine which takes 8-20 hours depending on model.
I’m waiting to see an upstate New York 10 year battery.
GeoTab got one thing wrong. After about 50K miles battery degradation slows significantly. We should not be surprised that it degrades on a curve. It would be very odd if it were linear. In short it is much better than GenTab is reporting. Not every one will have the same experience but: A crowd sourced study by Tesla owners showed Model S owners experiencing an average degradation of around 10% after 150,000 or even 200,000 miles
💯
I wouldn't trust a crowd sources study of tesla owners to do much more than promote dogecoin. I'd rather get real information from actual fleet operators.
It's been pretty much a straight line for me and my Volt at about 15% degradation across 10 years and 100,000 miles. The sheer number of data sources make Geo Tab's observations difficult to refute.
@@KTPurdy Probably varies allot by the many chemistries and thermal management solutions out there, hard to say for sure.
Battery chemistries continue to improve as well, in both NMC/NCMA space as well as rise of LFP, which trades some energy density for many times higher cell life.
Either way, it tells us these packs will easily outlast any ICE car in general, past 250k miles and without a problem, and even >500k miles is realistic depending on use case.
@@KTPurdy The Volt is an NMC battery, no? The Model S uses NCA cells. Other vehicles use LFP, generally known for long cycle life. No matter how much data is included, aggregating these and other chemistries into a single "EV batteries degrade X% per year" seems possibly misleading and worth questioning [still, the overall message is good if not already known, that battery packs should last the useful life of the vehicle ]
The transition to all electric vehicles is inevitable. Slow walking the transition will only make it worse for the auto makers.
VW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Porsche, BMW and the rest will continue to lose ICE sales.
BEV are disposable vehicles. Batteries are to expensive to ever replace with a new battery and another used battery will have degraded capacity as well.
@@matthewhuszarik4173the contemporary battery degrade is just a much as ice lose compression over years. Ive seen tons Taxi clock ing half million kilometer with almost no battery degration. Even for the first gen BYD E5 with over 10 years of service, it still retain 50% capacity. That is old tech. With the current tech. The degrade will be even less. You petrol head need to face the reality. The emission standard and the fuel consumption requirement in legistration is the noose on the ICE. Unless there emission standard and fuel consumption requirement get roll back. The requirements will becomes impractical to achived for ICE within a decade.
It's not inevitable. The future will be a mix of ICE, hybrid, BEV, and hydrogen.
@@user-jh6vt8vx4v EV will still have full power if a shorter range. ICE looses power over time.
@@matthewhuszarik4173 Batteries are designed to last the life of the vehicle. Over 300.000 miles.
Good thing there aren’t any bad things happening in the extraction and processing of 100,000,000 barrels of oil per day !!
a lot less worse
Holy Cow, Lutz is 92? That's amazing. Good for him!
Almost old enough to run for president.
The GeoTab report on high voltage battery life should give automakers confidence to increase battery warranties. The first to do this could have a real advantage. I remember when Kia made great progress in the US market by offering a 10 year warranty on gas cars.
People focus on the 'mandate/ICE Ban' theatrics. We should be paying attention to where DEMAND is moving. DEMAND is why people chose to buy cheap efficient Japanese vehicles over crap US Autos in the 80s. DEMAND is why consumers are purchasing BEVs now, not 'mandates'. Legacy automakers complaining about 'mandates' and 'bans' affecting their sales of obsolete tech are wagging the dog.
And, before moaning about that ban, it is worth considering: The latest evaluation of the progress of climate change and the progress of the energy transition indicates that if we stay on our current foot dragging pace of change, the effects of the resulting climate change will cost fully 18% of global GDP.
It's usually not even the legacy auto that complains about it. It used to be oil companies that funded this fud but now even they have moved on to investing that money into building out their charger infrastructure instead.
We won't ban cell phone use in cars but we'll mandate backseat sensors...what a shit show of a society we have become. Life expectancy on the decline, traffic deaths on the incline and technology all over the place to combat both...makes a guy wonder if they're actually trying to help or just make a buck.
They can't ban a legal item thus they pass hands free state laws with the backing of the 10th.
Make the vehicles larger, faster, heavier, and give them smaller windows. Upcharge because they're so big and powerful. Now they're dangerous. Upcharge for the "safety tech".
It's a racket, this is all just so they can charge more. They could lower the bumpers or hoods or give actual rear visibility to a vehicle, but you cant charge an extra few grand for making simple safety decisions. Right now the cybertruck is by far the worst offender in this cynical vicious cycle but they're all doing it.
All cell phones should have to go into Driving/Airplane mode when cars are on... That would save more lives than all these semi-useless gadgets which a new study found to be a driver distraction... No shit!
More stuff that only cater to stupid people, but rest of consumers end up paying.
Feel like the channel is missing the bigger picture. How many cars does the world need, can we have? the ups and downs of sales based upon quarterly numbers is problematic for a variety reasons. We cannot sustain the capacity of production and profit.
Welcome to capitalism. No industry wants to admit that sales can't go up if the population is falling. It all has to be exponential growth forever.
@@ethanwelner1230 I know, just wish the reporting on sales numbers here would represent that.
You were talking today about being able to set the time when the car would charge to make it so is fully charged when you need it. That's not how people around here use it. You said it so that it starts charging your car after 9:00 p.m. and it gets through before 6:00 a.m. in the morning and that way the cost of the charge is for less because you've done it in the middle of the night.
8:50 or thereabouts, the comment on EV's impacting the grid stability??? come on, one midsize data center can equal over 290,000 miles driven every day it is operating. Please dive deeper into that story to end the lies of grid burdens for EV's
2035, eleven years (11), they won't be around in 5 that is why they are crying.
The report focusing on cobalt didn't mention anything about the oil industry using cobalt to remove sulfur from crude oil? Makes me wonder who put this paper out.
Order of magnitude error.
40% EVs.
A Tesla mod S taxi has gone way over 400,000 miles in Britain , it used mostly the free Tesla Supercharging network, vlogger Rory interviewed the owner a few times
I'm glad Bob Lutz is still going. Will listen.
I've owned a Model Y for 4 years and it's lost exactly 1%.... You don't charge past 80%, you don't leave it fully charged, and you prep the battery if you need 100% for a long trip.... I thought Lutz was coming around but apparently, he's been dipped in the tank of dumb. Or fallen out of the dumb tree and hit every branch on the way down. I don't care who your guests are, but it would be nice if you could find some that aren't completely batshit biased.
Many cities in the EU have very good mass transit so cars are not a priority as they are in 3rd world USA.
Using buses sounds very 3rd world to me, good for peasants
Europe is adorably tiny compared to the US. Most only need a golf cart for mobility.
So adorable
@@BTC_Minarchist Europe also has a much better rail system or longer trips.
Where do you live? If you go ask a transit commuter, most will tell you it be nice to have their own car. When you have car, you absolutely neglect the inconveniences of taking mass transit. For example as a mother, how do you take care of two kids while carrying groceries and while it rains. How do you buy fertilizer for your yard? Or large cases of anything. How do you carry an entire cart of groceries? It's doable of course but extremely inconvenient.
@@taniabanes4707 Not being able to afford busses at all like most american towns is worse. Have fun walking on the non existent sidewalk to your job at a 7/11.
So Tesla has Dog Mode while Toyota has "can't leave your dog in the backseat" mode. Typical.
LFP won't set fire to your house in the middle of the night plus last longer........ falling nickel prices won't change that sound sleep reality.
So if those concerns about Lithium mining and refining are so broad spread, I guess that's gonna be bad news for power tools, smart phones, home and grid scale battery storage, etc, etc, etc? I've grown up with incidents like Exxon Valdez, Deep Water Horizon and numerous pipeline issues where people were incinerated... Pretty sure oil has been (and continues to be) the real reason for deadly wars and invasions... Even the oil and gas sanctions placed on Russia following the events in Ukraine are effectively bypassed (sold to India and Saudi before making its way back onto the global markets)...so this is just a set up to kick China and countries the US doesn't like... A global rules based order, sure but fair and applied equally, no chance!
Prolonging the ICE mandate will not make any significant difference. The vast majority of youngsters in cities are teached about emissions and climate changes, the majority will not buy ICE cars.
LFP batteries degrade about 2% in the first year and then level off. It's not 2% every year.
Love you guys, you do great work, and I listen daily. But can you please try to get guests on AL After Hours once in a while who are under 50? It seems having perspectives of younger people in the auto industry who have their finger on the pulse of what’s coming in the near future and what younger people (20-40) are gravitating towards would give some fresh insights. Thank you.
Battery price is decreasing at a rate of 10~15% a year and since the battery is the most expensive component in an EV, EV price is decreasing at a rate of 5~10% a year. ICE price is buttomed out while EV can go lower because it's fundamentally a less complex and more reliable design
Unless Europe can come out with strong EVs, it will not only lose the Chinese market, it will lose a lot of international markets
Bob Lutz got Tesla wrong years ago. Let’s see if he has a new positive take on Tesla now. If he is really tuned into what is happening in the auto industry as whole, he will see right through the stalling of the legacy automotive industry EV Efforts with the sidestep into Hybrid Land as a serious misstep!
I'm not sure he's gonna see Teslas falling sales and erratic and self destructive leadership and have good things to say. Hyundai might get some praise though.
@@ethanwelner1230 Tesla still has EV Technology that is way more efficient and profitable than Hyundai/Kia can produce. Remember, Tesla is the only EV manufacturer that actually makes a healthy profit! That includes the best South Korea, China, Europe and the rest of the USA including Rivian, Lucid and all of Detroit has come up with!
Wow Bob! I’ll def tune in for that. Thanks
Thank you, Sean the Highlander❤
Chargescape, something that Tesla has already been doing. Pretty pathetic that three large companies can’t get together to come up with a novel idea. Best they can do is copy other companies.
So if a city of 10,000 people all buy new cars. when will this city of 10,000 people be required to buy new cars again so it doesn't effect the auto industries planned growth?
Lutz will say "See i told ya" "Everyone is making hybrids" When deep down He knows that Legacy auto couldn't do what Tesla pulled off.
You are right, Legacy Auto could not have pulled off whompy wheels, building cars in tents, infinite BOM revisions because $andy Munro said you only have to worry about first principles, the CyberBust, FSD (Supervised) promises that will never be fulfilled, laughing at BYD ("Have you seen their cars?"), firing the SlowCharger team due to ego, and building the same car based on a 2008 design with zero ability to improve it.
@@bobbbobb4663 And with just about everything you just mentioned Legacy couldn't even top that. After all that "All In" Bulls**t They had to go back and suck Hybrid teet. Pitiful.
@@dclpgh Worded another way: "Akio proven right again!"
@@bobbbobb4663 Lets see what the second gen EVs are like from legacy auto.The ones that will have ANY chance will be so Tesla-like is gonna be comical.
@@dclpgh What is comical is that you and the rest of the diversion team are laser focused on the legacies when the reality is that BYD has completely overtaken Tesla. Is Adrian still laughing at BYD?
I hope to meet you and your dad someday I’m sure it’ll be an auto or electric event😊
You mean Bob (the big boys are coming) Lutz?
They're still coming, but they're big it takes them a while.
European auto industry is really in huge trouble, I can see here in Slovenia that impact on companies that supply big automakers in Germany and Italy
Yeah Lutz predicted that Tesla would go bankrupt 10 years ago. 😂
4:40 This is what we have been trying to tell the public!!!
The haters have been wrong on this topic for a long time
64% after 20 years is nothing to brag about. My 1979 240D has 100% range after 300,000 miles (and can still cruise at 80 mph all day and hit 30 mpg).
A big back lash against Chinese imported cars - only by the workers who may lose their jobs. Definitely not by the public who will purchase based on price and quality.
Just as Tesla revolutionized the Auto industry it will change the Semi transportation industry, a consortium is in talks to have Semi Charging from California to Texas ,in the news.😊
Coworkers model 3 is at 19% degradation (out of warranty), he has gotten worse than 1.8%...Standard deviation? Extreme points? Maybe share the numbers?
1.8% PER YEAR.
How many years and what mileage on the Model 3. Maybe share the numbers?
How does he charge it? Year? Mileage? Battery type? Maybe share the numbers?
Note: There are always exceptions. Plenty of ICE vehicles croak before 50k miles. But it's not the norm.
@@Gig0Surf 2019 M3, was at 19% at 175k miles beginning of the year. 180 mile daily commute (San Diego to Irvine and back), level 2 charging at home. Loves the car, he used to be able to do the commute only charging at home, now he doesn’t have the range.
"rear seat reminder system". To remind people they have a rear seat?
Yes, of course, so we never forget. Think of all those rear seats that have been forgotten.
This seems like helicopter parenting overreach.
Excellent content and I am hooked to this channel . Great work and keep it up . Very crisp and clear
Wow that Intrepid AI ad is creepy!
2:23 That is a ugly car.
I need clarification about the statement at 4:40 regarding 1.8%/year battery degrading. How can battery mfgs like CATL offer 15 year replacement warratines if the batteries fall below 85%. At 1.8%, the battery would drop to 73% in 15 years. Also, how does MG in Thailand now offer lifetime battery warranties on some of their models?
I can only assume Nissan Leafs were overrepresented in the study sample. Or the data were taken from only the first two or three years of operation.
It could be that CATL has a 10% buffer in their batteries. Thus you wouldn’t see the first 10% of battery degradation in the range estimation.
But Denza is doing.much better now than before..
😂I wanna comment on that. But figure just screw it. The outlet is running by intrest group from Detorit. It is not like Mercedes care much about the 10% anyway. Mercedes themselves is somewhat controlled by Geely group. I guess that is part of Gelly's bussiness plan.
VW better start pumping out Porsche GT3's
Why does bi-directional charging sound like a perpetual motion machine?
Excellent content and I am hooked to this channel . Great work and keep
It up
Depends on how good the economy is, LFP might be losing its heat if cargo boat that needed iron ores for steel needs to buy up all the irons.
I’m guessing these 4K tonnages boats just recently came out of supply chain shock, so it’s really depends on macro stimulus or how much of easing some newly developing nation are doing(it actually hurts them more than people realizes because these countries have no competing edge, R&D wise it’s on the bottom list plus it’s private companies are sort of like colonial vessels for strong economic nations to take advantage off, even it’s stronger influences like politicians and corporate ceos are more so on the leeching side. At best put the population on 40-70 years of debt that needs 3 generations to pay back…😢 as someone from more privileged nation sometimes I get to see these stuff but what can I say, some of the population in these country think this is good, jobs, without realizing rampant inflation, then move to another nation, then you know the whole stuff.
(Kinda don’t want that to happen tho, I heard new Tesla juniper had 20% range increase on its LFP battery, keep it low and make LFP standardize is good for consumers overall)
Oh yeah as long as China and other country don’t do these encouraging other nations to do mass infrastructure iron ore wouldn’t go up, building and bridges needs iron, also consumption for vehicle needs iron. (Sometimes very unethical, debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but its ability of knowing what’s good debt and what’s bad, based on the record there’s a reason why some of the nations couldn’t get loans from us and Europe(eu is quite corrupt as well, just ask some of the politicians that took money, they might have to clean themselves up)
Welp, frustrating situation 😂
So, medium size fires now?
So, you lose 36% battery life after 20 years. It's probably not linear, but let's say 18% at 10. Does this correlate to the loss in range? Does a BEV with a 300 mile range have a range of only 246 after 10 years? I've seen data from Tesla showing the loss in range can be more than the loss in battery life. It's good that the technology is making the batteries last longer, and thus pushing back the high cost of an inevitable replacement. Howevver, if the loss in range is still relatively high, then that remains an issue for some buyers.
Battery life directly relates to range. Take A 60kwh battery with 240 miles of range (4mi/kwh) at 100% battery life. 90% battery life means the pack is only holding 54kwh and supplying 216 miles of range. However, the reality is that the issue is battery cycles.
My 2017 Bolt EV had 8% range/battery degradation at 5 years, but had also driven over 100k miles on the original battery pack. At that rate, I could expect to hit 20% range loss somewhere over 200k miles. EV batteries are considered 'unfit for purpose' at 70%, so realistically I could have expected the original battery to have lasted over 250k miles, or over 20 years at an average of 12k miles per year. By 20 years, I would be more concerned with replacing the car than replacing the battery.
No UAW news about them getting to ready strike against Stellantis any day now? I think Stellantis should stop selling Fiat here America and focus on Chrysler when it comes to EVs.
Stellantis should stop selling Fiat everywhere.
@@ethanwelner1230 I wouldn't go that far, but if their Panda EV isn't planned for the US then they don't have any appealing vehicles worth selling here.
Sanford Village
Good-bye NOKIAs! 3:)
Maximum bob returns. Yeah.
Coddling to Legacy Auto is preventing good decisions. Tesla and some Chinese brands are light years ahead of Legacy. Legacy auto are dinosaurs. Your Friday shows highlight the development improvements modern auto makers are using. That will kill legacy as Tony Seba predicts in his 2014, "Clean Disruption." Please read it. All of his predictions have come true.
Tesla is doomed!
Light years? 😂😂😂😂😂
Chinese companies are only ahead because they’ve stolen patents (because they’re also making the microchips for the global industry) and have stolen every scrap of info from ALL companies that partner with them…
It’s espionage, not innovation.
Ahh yes, Tesla, the company that made a 100 thousand dollar triangle and who's sales are falling. The Tesla story was very exciting and they forced the industry to change significantly, but the Tesla that made brilliant decisions and delivered amazing new products has been gone for years. It's just a stock meme run by a psychopath now. Their growth story is over.
@@ethanwelner1230 Another person not realizing why Tesla and Chinese are kicking butt. Really because legacy is still working with legacy methods.
50,000 Tesla trucks per year by 2026 and the factory hasn't been built yet? Who is going to buy these trucks, where are the pre-orders? Which vehicle manufacturer has ever build a factory and ramped up production anywhere near that in such a short period of time?
Factory construction is coming along grate they got the orders also 2026 idk about that tho
95% uptime?! That is a whole lost workweek in 20? Doesn’t run one out of 20 days?
Not sure how the calculated up time. But remember these a very much prototype trucks.
@@danharold3087 agree - not sure I’d advertisers that reliability number - However, it wouldn’t be the first time journalists failed numbers.
At present battery is a flawed proposition - you cannot make people buy things they don't want . Many are sticking with what they have at present .
nobody 'made' people buy gas cars - they bought what worked for their needs and budget. The same thing is happening with BEVs, but everyone is distracted by 'mandate' theatrics.
The market will decide not the governments
64% of battery capacity after 20 years isn’t good enough when a replacement battery totals the car. So a car originally with a theoretical 300 mile of range will only have a theoretical 200 mile of range in 20 years and only 120 functional mile range. I have a 27 year old Dodge truck that is all original except consumables. It still has a functional range of over 300 miles. No wonder BEV values drop like a rock they are disposable vehicles.
1.6 kW a mile that's gas guzzler terms with only 500 miles of range. You can't go anywhere with that. I mean a diesel get 6 to 8 miles to the gallon but can go 15 to 2000 miles a full 300 gallon tank
Moore Sandra Lee Michelle Anderson Robert
VW has a strong technology lead in ICE engines and should concentrate more on its core technology competency - like Toyota!
VW, BMW, AMG and all German automakers must stick to their core competence in ICE engine cars and leave EVs to Tesla and Chinese car makers.
So what happens when evs take over in future they are fucked BC they late to the part while others are established they are just getting started thats one way to go bankrupt
I love ICE cars the way I love a $5K Rolex over a $10 Casio. How far do you think BEV’s would have gotten without MASSIVE government regulations, pollution credit sales, and Chinese government largesse and dictates from on-high? The answer is, NOWHERE. I would government to stay the “F” out of our lives.
It's easy to say when there isnt that many factories and million people living in your city but that's what happening in East Asia countries. To keep city air clean that the best way they come up with it reducing noise and oil consumption within the city.
Keep in mind, 64% of usable battery capacity comes off of the upper range of a vehicle, so if it had 300 miles when new, that would fall to 192 miles, and in the real world, in the winter it would probably be down to about 120 miles - pretty useless for most people. Do ICE vehicles loose range like that???
Just move to where the winters are mild, I did. There I solved your problem.
@joeperrone6677 and if you use the radio, you will have zero miles of range
@@2cartalkers But what about those Tesla Semi owners who need to haul in those winter climates. Buy a diesel backup truck? Or are you saying Leon's vision is flawed?
@@mike_w-tw6jdwhat's a "radio"?
@@2cartalkers😂
Tesla Semi News: 50,000 units / year promised by 2026! No wait, 50,000 units / year by 2024! No wait, 100,000 units / year promised by 2022! No wait, scale production in 12-18 months promised in 2017!
Oh look, Roadster!
@@russh6414 After the ReuterTaxi crashes in the demo on 10/10, Adrian will unveil the Roadster.
@@bobbbobb4663 I am surprised Tesla owners are not outraged their vehicles cant become robo-taxis as promised by Leon when they bought them
@@russh6414 The outrage will get here after Adrian announces that HW3 cannot handle the new "stack". Of course, we both know that the Tesla sensor suite is not complete anyway but it's one more promise broken from babysmurf9000.
@@russh6414Fortunately we bought ours to drive it and weren’t interested in FSD or sending out the vehicle as a Robotaxi. I’m a simple guy but knew that my Tesla would never be capable of being a Robotaxi and that Elon was lying. Hell, most people couldn’t figure out how to open the doors either from outside or inside so completely impractical as a Robotaxi even if the hardware/software ever worked.
But those who believed the bullshit that the new owner of ‘Shitter’ constantly vomited out would be pissed if they weren’t full on in the cult which many are.
Firstly