Can Biden Hold On? | 538 Politics Podcast
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- Опубліковано 27 лип 2024
- As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end?
And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.”
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9:54 Biden coverage begins.
May your preferred God or Force bless you
@@WackadoodleMalarkey I have been touched by the Flying Spaghetti Monster on this day.
Who can resist the noodly appendage??
Thank you
You, are a big darn hero.
Journalists keep saying he looks better than he did during the debate. No, he doesn’t. He still looks addled, he can’t speak properly, he shuffles and he has blank eyes. He looks like he had a stroke.
"The Parties told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command"
I’ll vote for him if I have no choice, but he should step aside for the good of the country.
My thoughts exactly.
I will not vote for him. Better than Trump is not good enough. They had 4 years to get a candidate that the people want, instead there were no primarys, and the candidate that 3/4 of voters say is too old was chosen. The democratic party continues to ignore the people. This is terrible for trust in democracy. I will vote third party.
@@user-pd3gt3tx5e If you are in a battleground state than you will be voting for Trump.
@@drewastolfi6840 No, with your logic, as long as one party has an insane candidate (like Trump) the other party can run whoever they want. It is the voters responsibility to "save democracy" and vote for a candidate they don't really want. This is not a democracy. The people are not choosing their leaders. In reality, the responsibility is not only on the voter. The party also has the responsibility of putting up a candidate that the people want. If the party does not, people will take their votes elsewhere, and new parties will form that are willing to represent the people. This is common in most democracies. The American people people have been brain washed into believing they must vote for one of two parties. Not voting for Biden is not a vote for Trump. I will vote for who I think is the best candidate, as we all should.
I totally hear you, and I don't that you're totally wrong, the DNC needs to listen to voters and the responsibility of that shouldn't be up to voters.
That being said....
A few months ago I would have agreed with you more, but after the supreme Court decision with presidential immunity, we are in a VERY precarious situation.
Trump was claiming the election was stolen months before it even happened. Then there was an attempted coup to keep him in power.
If Trump wins, and successfully appoints loyalists in the military, in the justice system, AS HAS BEEN STATED IS THE PLAN, honestly what is stopping him from just "temporarily" putting the 2028 election on hold in the interest of national security?
We have never been this close to a full fascist state.
You don't like Joe Biden. I don't like Joe Biden. I hear you, I totally do, but now the situation is different.
The responsibility of saving democracy shouldn't be totally in the voters, and it shouldn't be on the people that live in swing states, (which are the people the responsibility is really on), you right it shouldn't be that way, but IT IS.
Weather or not we like it or not (I certainly don't like it), is something that was worth discussing back in 2021 just after Biden got into office.
With four months left to go though? And with the stakes this high?
I do think that Biden should step aside, but the focus for the next four months has to be on beating the attempted fascist takeover of this country.
Especially if you live in a swing states, and I know it sucks, but the people that live in swing states are the ones that will decide this election, and they are the ones with the unfortunate responsibility of keeping the fascists out.
I hear you though! I really do! And it sucks, it really does, but that is the reality that we are in, whether we like it or not.
@@user-pd3gt3tx5e
winning a basically uncontested primary with a large amount of non of the above votes does not mean that the voters support you it just means they werent given an option also if they are hiding his condition that is a scandal regardless of further context its immoral to not let voters know the mental capability or lack there of of the person you want them to vote for if you know there is a problem
Uncontested primary indicates support. It's one of Lichtman's keys too.
@@aman-qj5sx on an incumbent? the party didn't try. big names didn't run, some primaries were even cancelled. and then? 15%-20% of the primary vote went to Literally No One. people went out to vote _for_ no one, actively. the party is not unified on this and that is a weak basis to run with for the most consequential election of the century.
@@triangleunderstanderred state here and the Democrats didn't have hardly anyone on their ballot. Ended up voting in the Republican primary for the most likely least crazy ones lol
No video???
I haven’t watched these podcasts in a while, I guess since the midterms. I guess they fired the video editor which is a real shame because I don’t really want to watch the podcast without the video 😥
@@darcy_1 Yeah, ABC has done all they can to try and kill 538.
Yea i miss having the video
Can he hold on? Hold on to what the podium? This is for the presidency
Why have another debate? It's pointless at this point.
The first one was also pointless.
That's what UFC fans call "super necessary"
He needs to step aside. For the good of the party. For the betterment of America .
Why this is what the doctors say about Biden. Fortunately, President Biden shows no signs of Alzheimer’s disease. At news conferences, he references new events and obviously creates new memories efficiently. He speaks slowly and pauses to find words like others with benign age-associated memory impairment. These issues are exacerbated by a chronic speech impediment. Biden has struggled with stuttering since childhood, and remnants of the condition have long been apparent in his speech.
@@truthhurts5158if you can’t see the clear decline in not just his stutter, which is forgivable, but his ability form coherent sentences… then we have nothing to discuss
@@mick_muffin do you have any idea what a stutter is and how it effects your speech. Its just not the stuttering. Its how to have to stop because you can t say a word and change how you are going to say something one way because your speech impediment won t let you say it the way your started to say it, Read up on stuttering or better yet talk to someone who does
@@truthhurts5158watch a video if Biden speaking 4 years ago. Compare it to his speech pattern now. It’s beyond a stutter. He is not cogent. It’s ok for us to admit it. We do harm to our party when we don’t speak truth.
@@truthhurts5158he’s confusing words like Covid and Medicaid. He’s moving and talking like someone with Parkinson’s. I saw my dad died of Parkinson’s. It’s identical. Please educate yourself on what’s happening. Don’t bury your head in the sand
If you don’t view his aides hiding him from the public because he is completely incoherent as a scandal, then your brains have been melted.
No CAN he hang on but SHOULD he hang on? And the answer is no, he should NOT.
“Was this an episode, or was this a condition?”
This question is confused.
Whether it was a more acute condition like dementia or Alzheimer’s is completely irrelevant.
Biden has the general condition of old age.
His episodes, with 100% certainty, will get worse and more frequent over time. See: Old Age.
Please keep that in mind. Biden’s debate performance is an all-time low in the context of his own history. His debate performance is an all-time HIGH in the context of his future. *he is only getter older*.
Anyone who thinks we should “stand behind Biden” is delusional. When will his next episode strike? In a month? In 2 months? The day before the fucking election?
Do not rest our future on literal prayers that he will not have an episode until after his first day in office (as, obviously, all supporters are fine with his removal as long as Trump doesn’t get elected).
Just wow.
hi you seem to have forgotten the video again. Please address this
Why no video
25tth Amendment.
Fortunately, President Biden shows no signs of Alzheimer’s disease. At news conferences, he references new events and obviously creates new memories efficiently. He speaks slowly and pauses to find words like others with benign age-associated memory impairment. These issues are exacerbated by a chronic speech impediment. Biden has struggled with stuttering since childhood, and remnants of the condition have long been apparent in his speech.
@@truthhurts5158 25th Amendment.
@@lomotil3370 lololol didn t work on Trump
He is in 25th amendment condition right now and has been for some time.
I am reminded of Shelly's poem "Ozymandias", the Greek name for the pharaoh Ramesses II. Shelley's poem explores the ravages of time and the oblivion to which the legacies of even the greatest men are subject. Two themes of the Ozymandias poems are still inevitable. The decline of rulers and their hubris. Despite Ozymandias' grandiose ambitions, or Biden's, their power was ephemeral.
I haven't seen anyone call Biden a narcissist, and I've seen multiples across the political and business domain call Trump exactly that.
@@WackadoodleMalarkey Personality disorders like narcissism are measured on a scale and spectrum. Trump's is off the charts in that respect. Nevertheless, Biden has an ego, justified perhaps in the past, that may be problematic today and certainly in the future. A true statesman and his family must assess his competency for the next four years and make an egoless decision. Ps: In 2020 Biden spoke of being a transitional president and a bridge for future generations. That was abandoned early on.
WackadoodleMalarkey but i suspect dr jill might be ...
@@advocate1563 In 1906 Woodrow Wilson had a stroke partially due to the stress he felt during the reorganization of Princeton University. He was elected president in 1912 and reelected in 1916. On October 2, 1919, Wilson suffered a serious stroke, leaving him paralyzed on his left side, and with only partial vision in the right eye. His second wife Edith kept his incapacity from going public for months. Despite his medical incapacity, Wilson wanted to run for a third term. While the 1920 Democratic National Convention strongly endorsed Wilson's policies, Democratic leaders refused, nominating instead a ticket consisting of Governor James M. Cox and Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin D. Roosevelt. History may not repeat but it certainly rhymes, at times.
@@WackadoodleMalarkeybecause this ‘Grandpa Jo’ bullshit was only manufactured so people will vote for him…… and that whole facade has definitely been torn apart after the dudes recent statements
Definitely a scandal wtf copium
Sky (Murdoch) news is the least watched news channel in the UK. The majority of people watch BBC, ITV & Ch4 who emphasize that it's just a poll. People in the UK generally know that until they get the stage speech for the constituency it's just a poll. The individual announcements in public and televised with all candidates stood on the stage (including the crazies, buckethead, Mr Blobby) make them the main events of the night. Without this gathering of candidates and stage event, with voting progress counts in the USA, this is what makes the casual observer confused.
Sad that you couldn't hold on the video.
I’m not voting for him or Trump no matter what. It’s the Dems and reps fault if they don’t want to put forward a candidate that’s not psychotic.
You're still voting by not voting. Kind of a ridiculous thing to say given P25.
This is so much fun!
UK exit polls showed Reform with 13 seats and the Greens with 2 seats. Reform ended up with 5 seats and Greens 4 seats. Terrible use of exit polling IMO. They're not "in the same ballpark": Reform won less than 40% of its projected seats and Greens won double their projected seats. Completely different results and narrative.
For Nathaniel, from ~5-9 mins into this video, I think you misused ‘precision’ several times (I don’t think all though?) when you meant ‘accuracy’. Just wanted to point that out as it is an important statistical distinction that means 2 different things.
❓.❓
What if the Bar Association rejects them?
Can they stay as judges without being lawyers?
That's actually a great question
Supremes don’t have to lawyers
There are no requirements to be a lawyer or anything else to be a Supreme Court Judge
The point is they can make decisions without fear of retaliation from people who just don't like what they decided.
Prior to the debate I would have voted for Biden. Now if he is not replaced, I be voting a third party.
Congratz you have dictator Trump
@@andreasfroby Biden's chances aren't any better than any of the other candidates. They are all zero.
He's going to run out the clock.
the 538 model predictions
Imagine being able to criticize the age and mental acuity of your opponent without having to defend the higher age and worse mental acuity of your own nominee.
Once Biden drops out it will be glaring.
He’s a stumbling corpse at this point.
Looks like it.
Subtitles please
Seeing all the Biden allies throw him under the bus is just hilarious. 🤣🍦😎
"All the Biden Allies" meaning less than half a dozen elected democrats
Can Trump not be a dictator?
Who is Steve Cornacky?
Polling analyst
Steve Kornacki
He works the elections ( either CNN or MSNBC ) and stands in front of a map of the U.S. and shows where all the votes are coming from, and explains a lot of dynamics .
The idiotic reasoning people keep giving for making Harris the nominee is hilarious
Rather boring discussion. Wish you would say something I haven't heard before
If you think he's bad now imagine what he'll be like in 2028....
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That's lovely 🌹if I may ask, How did you come up with so much biweekly?
It's Andrea Sheryl Fox doing she changed my life. A BROKER- like her is what you need.
$_700k and yet still counting on. Andrea Sheryl is the kind of person one needs in his or her life to be honest❤️❤️❤️>>>>
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The Access Hollywood Tape was also not guaranteed to get worse over time.
Biden's health *is* guaranteed to get worse over time.
I'd still vote for his head in a Futurama jar, but most wouldn't.
In 1980, I was in New Mexico, standing in line to vote in my first presidential election, when Reagan was announced as the winner. Others in line with me dejectedly left the polling place. I was determined to cast my vote & stayed, despite already knowing the outcome. News orgs should keep their traps shut as long as possible to give voters a chance to weigh in.
Continue to please us with such great videos! You are a master of your craft! 🍒🧡
What a strange accent
Dementia 2024
Biden: “argagaga, me, me, me”
Go home. 🏡
A Canadian TV show parodied modern politics, with skilled handlers getting a candidate elected even as he became literally braindead. Would that be a scandal, if it had been real? By the podcast's logic, no. By my logic, yes.
No, he cannot. Any other questions?
And he doesn't just have to hold on. He has to make a miraculous comeback.
@@TankZappa its trump 2024 here. I am done with the dnc. Wish him luck in repairing the border and economy. Vote with your heart. Best wishes ti whatever scenario we find ourselves in
@@yuanjiazhu7940 lol, Trump 2024 is going to lead to a recession. I'll be laughing my butt off at all you poor people that voted for him when that happens.
@@TheGkmasta ...we are in a recession. Inflationary recession. Look at job numbers amongst citizens. Yawn.
@@yuanjiazhu7940 lol, inflation is going down and we just added 206,000 jobs. If you think this is a recession, then a Trump presidency will be funnier than I thought.
If this polling good or bad is a terrible question.
Ask better questions: which polls are more accurate? What is their polling process and how is it different, how does it fit in the broader context?
IT's all bad lol. 60+% disapproval for ALL candidates, and hovering 30% approvals... for months now.
#Patriots4Harris2024
- said Trump.
She's my favorite in 28 and not until then or Biden surrenders leadership
I voted for him and would never vote for Trump, but seriously it’s time for Biden to step aside. Just nominate Joe Manchin, capture all of the swing state middle ground, and that’s a win.
Or Gretchen Whitmer, governor of a swing state.
Shapiro, Beshear, Whitmer, Cooper
All win in landslides over Trump…
From doctors Fortunately, President Biden shows no signs of Alzheimer’s disease. At news conferences, he references new events and obviously creates new memories efficiently. He speaks slowly and pauses to find words like others with benign age-associated memory impairment. These issues are exacerbated by a chronic speech impediment. Biden has struggled with stuttering since childhood, and remnants of the condition have long been apparent in his speech.
I know he is a republican but I'm hoping for Adam Kinsinger.
@@truthhurts5158 The bar is set so low that an Alzheimer's diagnosis is the real line in the sand? Look, I like Joe Biden, I had a Biden 2020 yard sign, but he is too old for the Presidency.
There is too much at stake here with a felonious lunatic chomping at the bit to take back the White House and Joe Biden may be the only person who can lose to Donald Trump.
National unity ticket:
KAMALA / KINZINGER
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
Too all the people that are claiming that they won't vote if Biden remains the nominee:
(and for the record, personally I think we need a different candidate also),
I totally hear you, and I don't that you're totally wrong, the DNC needs to listen to voters and the responsibility of that shouldn't be up to voters.
That being said....
A few months ago I would have agreed with you more, but after the supreme Court decision with presidential immunity, we are in a VERY precarious situation.
Trump was claiming the election was stolen months before it even happened. Then there was an attempted coup to keep him in power.
If Trump wins, and successfully appoints loyalists in the military, in the justice system, AS HAS BEEN STATED IS THE PLAN, honestly what is stopping him from just "temporarily" putting the 2028 election on hold in the interest of national security?
We have never been this close to a full fascist state.
You don't like Joe Biden. I don't like Joe Biden. I hear you, I totally do, but now the situation is different.
The responsibility of saving democracy shouldn't be totally in the voters, and it shouldn't be on the people that live in swing states, (which are the people the responsibility is really on), you right it shouldn't be that way, but IT IS.
Whether or not we like it or not (I certainly don't like it), is something that was worth discussing back in 2021 just after Biden got into office.
With four months left to go though? And with the stakes this high?
I do think that Biden should step aside, but the focus for the next four months has to be on beating the attempted fascist takeover of this country.
Especially if you live in a swing states, and I know it sucks, but the people that live in swing states are the ones that will decide this election, and they are the ones with the unfortunate responsibility of keeping the fascists out.
I hear you though! I really do! And it sucks, it really does, but that is the reality that we are in, whether we like it or not.
imagine if Trumps running mate is Biden
Yep the Left would be pointing to him as a weak choice.
.
. 🔵 VOTE 🔵
Clickbait. I'm SO sick if this insulting shit.
youmguys are too biased
President Biden needs to stay and win again.
.
. IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH