Quarantine Grind Episode 21 - Getting CRUSHED by Variance at 16NL! Down 12 Buy-Ins in 1,500 Hands?!
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
- Guys, the time has come and my run good is over. For the next few weeks, you'll see me battling against the variance as hard as I can to fight off losses, starting with this brutal session at 16NL. You can find me streaming on Twitch here: / eastyyy22
There's a few spots I could have saved money, but this was only going one way...
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Thanks for watching!
This is the video to watch to make yourself feel better during a downswing.
Glad to be of service.
Brutal makes me feel better about getting run bad and im a really average player
I'm glad I could be of some help... :(
@@eastyyy22 you're a much better player than me mate, but from that sample the populations tenancies to call with trash id start raising 4bb and 3 betting larger. But i play 2c 5c so what do i know
he called with 62 offsuit honey!
These idiots from Northern Europe!
@@eastyyy22 and these Idiots who called with only a Ace, dude your Flop sizing is garbage, and your Rivercall too, you blocking bluff Range, and think about your Hand Strength on River you got only TPGK on Flush 1 Card Straightboard, learn to fold against Actions.
@@petergriffin5687 TPGK against a whale limp calling 62o utg, I follow my labels almost always and it serves me well. Not sure there's any need for you to be like this, but thanks for your contribution.
I know this feeling all too well. Just recently I had a big downswing after running well for so long, I kept playing when I really should have took a break because I was in the wrong mindset and tilt set in. Then I stopped chasing losses, took a break for a few days then came back at lower stakes and just went back to a good old fashioned TAG strategy, and I'm now thankfully back to playing my best again. It's a horrible feeling though when it seems like you just can't win a hand no matter what you do.
Always a good idea to take a break when the game feels like this! Coming back with a fresh mindset is very undervalued. Apparently I'm not great at taking my own advice :)
Damn man I m losing my temper just by watching this
I'm actually very impressed by how calm I was. Off camera I'd have been very different I think lol
Hi Easty! What an unlucky session man. I want to give my 2c on some of the hands though.
1:10 AA: You have the Ad here, I don't mind checking this back sometimes, I would RNG it here. Cbet is certainly fine. Same for the turn. When he check/minraises, that shows a shitton of strength. You're blocking the nutflushdraw, minraise signals that he wants you to continue. Without reads or aggressive stats I would just fold here. You're making most of your money when he flats, not when he raises. It's certainly exploitative, but the general micro population is underbluffing so I don't see a reason to continue here. AQ, KQ for example or A8 without a diamond would be better bluffcatchers than AA blocking sets and two pairs.
2:20 AQ: I like it. You don't block hearts, you're blocking 2 pairs and topset, it's not a turn c/minraise. Much better spot than in hand 1.
2:50 KJ: I don't like flatting KJs here oop, especially after he 3bets vs UTG, might be fine though. I prefer small frequ. 4b or fold.
3:05 JJ: Might be worth checking the flop. You should check this flop a lot, and with the spade its a prime checking candidate. Turn is a definite check. River is a c/fold imo, I think you have better bluff catchers and traps in this spot like A9, 67, 8x, flushes etc.
3:55 A4s: I hate flatting weak Ax, I think it plays much better in a 4b or f strategy, even if PIO likes it. Float is fine at a low frequency. Turn should be a shove more often than not, I think you should RNG it. River is not a great spot to bluff as you are bluffing his flushdraws, QJ, J9 etc are certainly better bluff jams than this one, but again I think it's fine at a low frequency.
5:20 AA: Easy bet/fold on the turn. Same as hand 1, except there is even more stuff that beats you and less draws. You're getting 4:1 but there are reverse implieds and it becomes a guessing game on the river.
5:55 AQ: Should be a range check on the flop in my opinion. IF you're betting I think you should choose a large sizing and not half pot, because you're range is really strong (sets, strong draws) in that case and there is no reason to bet small on a wet board like this. Turn check is good. River is tough. Again you're blocking his flushdraws and you have better bluffcatchers in this spot.
6:50 AA: that's just fucking unlucky man :/
8:45 QQ: I like it. There are some players where I play 4b/f with QQ though, as much as it hurts. But vs unknown I like it.
9:50 AJs: Again a flop where you should check a LOT oop, especially vs 2 opponents. In fact I would check my entire range here and go for a c/jam with all my value and good draws.
10:45 J8s: Really like your lead here. Just ran into it, but well played man.
21:05 AQ: Again it's a really tough spot. It's BBvUTG, so his range will be very tight, even if he is aggressive in general. I would mix in some calls with AQs, and play 4b/f with mostly f with my AQ here. As played nothing you can do, I think the flop raise is a bit small but whatever. I don't like your opponents play, I think he should jam on the flop oop. Especially since he is aggressive and can rep nfds with the Ad.
13:10 65s: I don't understand why you check the turn. You pick up more equity if you're behind and you can deny equity with a bet vs random floats. This hand becomes really hard to play if he starts barreling his random floats. This hand makes for a fine river bluff shove as well, you should at least consider trippling this, even vs fish.
13:55: vs the small raise I prefer call actually. You're getting a ridicolously good price, probably a much better price than if you 3b this. C/r would have been an option as well. On the turn I prefer a jam since you're oop, but blockbetting is fine as well. Check/jam is an option again. River I much prefer a c/call. There aren't many worse hands he can call with, but he might turn something like T9 into a bluff or jam his busted flushdraws.
14:45 AK: You should size up on the flop. There is zero reason to block on the turn, you should size up and in fact I would always jam here. On a sidenote if you size up on the flop it makes for a better turn sizing as well on. Manipulating the potsize is really important.
16:50 77: RNG the turn raise. I would raise here more often than not, especially since he seems to be a fish, but I'm not sure what's correct here.
17:40 AK: I like the flop check, but you should bet sometimes bet here as well (and probably call it off if he jams). I like your turn call, as you said sometimes jam is fine as well. River is thin but I like it vs fish.
18:42 A5s: 4b is really small considering you guys are a bit deeper here.
19:00 KK: I would love to see his stats. There are certain nits who I would flat my entire continueing range against ip because they fold everything but KK+, in my experience they tend to flat AK and QQ vs 3bets. And postflop they usually slow down if they don't have it. Just yesterday I had the same spot and I sigh folded the river (or was it turn?). This might be completely wrong though, it might be fine just stacking off here with KK even vs nits.
That was much more than I anticipated :D I wish you gl and see you on twitch and the tables!
Hi Dave! Sorry it's taken some time to get to your comment.
1:10 AA: Yeah I don't mind exploit folding here in retrospect, but I do have a strong leaning to follow my labels in such situations. Could flip a coin but folding very reasonable.
2:50 KJ: Generally agree but don't mind a flop from time to time vs weaker players.
3:05 JJ: Don't mind playing this more passively with a spade but I had played a few pots with this guy already and he was sticky so I mixed this one in.
3:55 A4s: I'm following ranges I'm happy with which mixes this as r/c which is what I do here. Not sure I would shove turn with my Tx all that often as he seemed aggressive, and I also have a spot to bluff river if he gives up blocking AK after calling.
5:20 AA: Seems fair.
5:55 AQ: Sizing up seems reasonable, could consider folding river but the guy is an absolute whale and could have anything + good price on the call.
6:50 AA: :(
8:45 QQ: Had no specifically good reason to fold here, which I would need to not be going with this hand.
9:50 AJs: I like check/jam!
11:30 AQ: Think I do prefer to 4b/fold also but a little deeper I don't like to 4b these spots as much in position and I really didn't want to fold because of the villain type. And yeah he has an easy jam, idk.
13:10 65s: Tend to shy away from setting up big bluffs vs fish in general, and go into check call mode to extract value from the air they barrel. Your way is fine too, happy to bet here mostly.
13:55 QJs: Just trying to get this in vs his stack size and not have to cede pot control oop. Call is fine too.
14:45 AK: Don't like sizing up, just trying to milk vs weaker player with wide range that won't withstand larger bets.
16:50 77: Not convinced I have enough good bluffs here if I raise this. Prefer call on this texture.
18:42 A5s: Think my sizing is fine, want to give his weaker hands with that 3b % a tough spot with my value range.
19:00 KK: It was like 19 14 5, flatting is good I think but jamming can't be that bad. Not many flops I fold vs AA anyway, and may lose some action vs AK or QQ. Either is good though.
Thanks for taking the time to look at the hands!
Really refreshing to see some thoughtful analysis that isn't snarky, abusive or tries to dismiss decisions as being 'easy and/or 'obvious'. Thank you
@@huwponty I'm lucky to have some very thoughtful commenters on the channel! Thanks for watching and reading!
Lost a battle but now the war! Keep it up!
The battles are coming thick and fast and it doesn't get prettier for a while!
This is a really good video...shows us that it happens to others and better players too. TY!
Working hard on my mental game to handle the variance.
Happens to everybody, we're all playing the same game! It's all down to how well you understand that and accept it, and also how you deal with it and not allow it to affect your decisions. Thanks for watching!
4:57 LOL that is almost the most 'fuck you' runout possible. Flops his 3 outer with the nut flush draw, turns trips and rivers the flush for overkill. I think when you're running that bad you have to just laugh. Thank you for sharing this vid though, makes me feel better about my own run bad.
Certainly a session that will live long in my memory for the wrong reasons! But in all seriousness, this kind of session can be a blessing in disguise as it builds your resilience to this side of the game. It will happen to everyone and you need to be okay with that.
Man, that was brutal. I'm not sure my laptop would have survived. Nice one for keeping your cool!
Whenever I have a really bad session, I remember that this exists and it could always be worse!
probably one of the sickest poker stream highlights on youtube! not sure how someone can run this horrible. variance
It's definitely up there for me in terms of worst sessions of all time. I do have several more coming up that are pretty close though!
Thank you for blessing us with your streams & content. Love you Eastyyy
Thank you!
Respect for not loosing it, I would probably tilt off my entire bankroll lol
Was a tough one!
Wow this makes me feel so much better about the 8 buy ins I lost thanks for this video
Seems this is helping a lot of people haha. Thanks for watching!
More epic content from Easty boy. Keep it up
Cheers Bean!
Keep it up bro, downswings happen - videos and analysis top notch as always
Thanks mate, appreciate it!
1 st rule of micro :….we don’t talk about micro
2 st rule of micro : fish min raise =97% fold !
Pretty good session for the orange line! You def learned a lot in the last months. Keep it up!
Oh yes, the green line can barely see the orange now! Thanks for watching!
Rough stuff my friend.
Not my favourite session lad.
I hate sessions like that, bad luck spirals into bad play and then more bad luck. Brutal! Subbed to your channel, I'm currently grinding 10nl on 888
Fwiw I don't think I made too many mistakes, a few for sure, but I definitely get what you mean! Thanks for the sub and good luck on your poker journey!
It not just me then, it can be an unforgiving game for sure, you are too good for it to last, you are sure to turn it around,gl
Thanks Keith, it lasts for about a week more unfortunately but we're on the path to recovery now!
Been there, you'll rebuild. Keep your spirits up!
Thanks!
Had a session like that the other day thanks for not sugar coating it
No way of sugar coating it, I didn't win a pot!
@@eastyyy22 what's your thinking playing GTO at these stakes, do you think it helps? Personally I prefer pure exploitative
Amazed you didn't lose it on stream!
I had a good lie down after my stream! Thanks for watching.
When the runbad started
legit
this is amazing!!!
thanks!
Welcome into my PK WORLD!!!!!
Loved video., Soooo related
I should record my sessions, ive started to play seriously since 2nd of January after long 10 years brake. So far breakeven in 130k hands, running 38BI under ev.
Was definitely some spots where you could save money, but as you said its always one way.
Keep it up! Love.the content!
Sick game isn't it! It's been a rough ride but we're hanging in there. Thanks for the support!
In the KJ hand facing the 4x pot shove, is there an argument for calling?
You need to be winning ~44% and although your equity vs a 3bet range that entirely beats you (AA, AKo, AKs - I'm excluding KK as you block this and how often is even a donk 4x pot shoving top set) is 32%, you do block AK and if you only add QQ in there, your equity goes up to 48%. Throw in one of JJ, AQo or AQs and you're a favourite, include all of them and you're 60+% favourite.
Even if he is shoving top set, with a range of AA, AKo, AKs, KK, just by adding QQ in there you're getting the right price. It feels very puntish to just call off such a huge overbet when you only have 11bbs invested, but are there enough AQ, QQ, JJ or complete spazzy hands that do this to make calling profitable?
Generally speaking this is just a slam dunk fold. The amount of times you're going to find someone bluffing here is no where near 44%!
I literally had a session that seemed identical to this one yesterday, helping alleviate the tilt 😂
Glad I could be of assistance haha. Thanks for watching.
thnx mate i took some notes, the only small mistake ive noticed that your making is that you might be calling too much on the bb,
I do like to defend! Will take a look. Thanks for watching!
Plays 16nl.
“I will never financially recover from this”-tiger king.
This was brutal has a session like this recently where we went down 9 buyins in 2000 hands
Hahah we did actually financially recover from this! But this was a low moment for morale.
Seeing as its a losing session, lets see if we can change anything about it shall we
QQ 9:30 - Size up flop
AJs 9:48 - No need to 3bet a guy with 60bb with AJs here, just take a flop
J8s 11:02 - x/c river or go like half and decide, I think you know this looking back, in the heat of a bad session we do stupid stuff
QJs 14:05 - Size up on the 3bet if youre planning on calling off, and you turn bet is super odd, not really sure what value you have that wants to go this size. Either size up or check. Again the jam OTR seems abit tilty and just hoping he calls of with Tx
AK 18:15 - Nicely played, you can maybe jam turn with how much FE and actual equity you have but I really like the river jam vs this sizing
Thats about it to be honest, all the others are super unlucky, the best highlight video ive seen you play, just got fucked by varience.
Stream sessions have already bounced back so its all Gucci - See ya bro ;)
Hey man! Good to see only a couple of hands on the list lol.
QQ: Normally would but wanted to induce as I said and in my experience they go a bit crazier vs small sizings.
AJs: Probably agree yeah.
J8s: Hmmm pretty okay with how I played this one. I underbluff greens because they overcall and check back a lot, so I always generally go for value unless I need a check raise to get all the money in. He can have anything.
QJs: Yeah not sure about this one, sizing was just awkward OTT, just trying to milk a T.
AK: Thanks.... lol
Good to know you think I played well mostly, this one was really just not my day. Definitely rallying now but not for a while on UA-cam!
Thanks again mate.
Dude, we play almost the same style and lost with the same kind of hands, unbelievable.
Not just variante its Impossible to BE a winner grinding zoom
Nah it's definitely possible mate, just a difficult session! Was doing very well before this.
Why is this then, its not because the pool is so good is it, you wouldnt think so when you play or watch it. I get its faster and rake is so high, but the best players all seem to play zoom so it should be beatable?
That was a brutal f”cking session m8 😁
Hate looking back at this one haha
variance went in without spit T-T
I'm definitely sore.
Just a bad session that needs sweeping under the carpet unfortunatley, insane run bad cant be denied, and super tilting. Things for everyone to learn from this is have a buyin cut off 5 max personally, play less tables when moving up(i know you personally have played at 16nl) and some boards just are not for barreling with aces. Enjoying the content still a great video to show what can happen.
It can definitely get a bit hazy around the 5 buy in mark but I didn't feel I was making many mistakes so was happy to hang in there. I do plan to 2 table when moving up next time, especially while streaming. Thanks for watching!
I am having sessions like this, its not rare tbh. AA in 3 bet pot vs a villans set is normal for me. I encounter such a thing at least one time in a single session. Also AK vs 222, 333 etc. on the flop without draws and u got re-raised and what am i supposed to do, just jam and pray? Dont know, maybe i am running bad but i already played 500k hands and whole 500k hands are under EV. Maybe its just a long downswing which will end and i will sky rocket to the heaven, who knows. Anyway, i am winning money so i guess, it could be worse. Wonder how it is going to be with u in next sessions, gonna watch for sure.
same, i know for a fact i run worse than the average player. kind of just get used to it when it happens so often lol
I would say this is definitely one of the worst sessions I've had for variance and not very common, at least for me! I did have very long stretches of run bad in the last year, but nothing this consistent and in some a small amount of hands. Unfortunately it does get worse before it gets better!
I feel the same and im not ahead to date, gl in the future.
@@liveslowlivesimple Maybe one time we will run as good as Nick. I still hope, even tho i have passed 500k hands. Maybe then i will have 500k hands of upswing? lol, u never know what is going to happen.
@@eastyyy22 If that was one of the worst then u should be happy for sure, its not big of a deal, you will bounce back and win some more. I mean its mostly bad run because of hands played and money lost during those hand. I could play like 10k hands for a day and meet similar kind of varaince but for 10k hands, not 1,5k. Its really small. Will see what a future holds for me. Maybe my running will be better too, starting grind on nl5 today as i manage to get about 50buy ins on nl2.
Hey, I know that feel bro! If it was easy, everyone would be a poker player. Although, when the graph is in the opposite side we don't complain, right? Thumbs up for that video, keep it up!
Happens to everybody, just a bit savage on the end of a good run! Thanks for the support!
Pretty Sick Nick, the comments saying some spots were avoidable are accurate but in the heat of battle I can't see any commentors having the abilty to slow down and save a couple of buyin's, When its not your day its not your day!!, The difference is having the mental fortitude to bounce back, I do think tho that Zoom tables are tougher than reg tables IMHO, I think they play about twice the abilty of Reg Tables, the ability to fold and move on kinda prevents the spewie 26off callers (maybe he was a 8/16 reg tabler taking a shot). keep making the videos its some of my vavorite content on YT and I watch on Twitch as often as I can.
Hi Phillip, I think it's definitely reasonable to say I could have saved some money here, but certainly not 12 buy ins! My mental definitely took a hit but I'm hanging in there. Thanks very much for your kind comments and for watching my content, I really appreciate it!
omg!Bad beat!good luck!
Thank you!
I’d need a good cool down meditation session after that either through variance or in my case sometimes too many mistakes it always seem one always seems to lose money three times faster than earning it
Yeah it always feels like it's getting away from you in these situations! I think it's mainly because we don't win a full stack when we win due to rake, but lose a full one when we lose!
Should take a break after a few of these hands lol
Hi Nick. I'm enjoying the stream highlights! One request: could you try and show the hand your opponent had if you reached showdown? It's quite anti-climatic never knowing what ridiculous hand they were playing with!
Also, maybe this is just me but I find your Twitch background quite distracting: particularly the lines that bounce up and down on the right hand side of the screen. If I was being really pedantic I would also suggest turning off the tournament announcements and dealer chat.
Keep up the good work!
Hi James,
Yeah I have been trying to show their hand more, it's just sometimes I actually don't look because I have a lot on my screens or I fuck up the transition. Will try to do better!
I haven't had anyone else mention the background but maybe it's something I can look into. I'll probably get a whole new one made at some point if I figure out the right person to ask lol. I didn't even know I could turn those things off so I definitely will!
Thanks for watching.
Thanks for the reply,@@eastyyy22. I hope you get past the variance. Good luck!
Do you not use a stop loss for a session? I always find when I run bad I start playing worse.
I'm comfortably rolled for the stake so I don't think about stop losses. I do stop playing a stake or a session if I notice myself making a poor decision.
He limped 62o utg and called a raise, you missed out and he got rewarded!
Need to mix this into my game I think.
Not all hands lost due to variance...
I think some all in preflop can be avoided such as QQ, can call to see a flop. Maybe lost less, the worst case still lose whole stack, but give yourself a chance. Not much worse hand would all-in with you preflop, mostly AK, KK, AA.
Sometimes can take a pot control line, avoid stacking >100bb with only one pair hand. More cooler situations are just unlucky and unavoidable, then that is variance to blame. e.g (K flush on river VS A flush, set over set, top twopair VS set)
By the way I enjoy watching your zoom poker videos. I am just a losing player in NL2 Zoom.
I definitely didn't lose all hands to variance, but I definitely hit some huge variance this session! My QQ is pure 4bet in the spot you are referring to and I can't fold after 4betting. I think AQ you are referring to with one pair hand, that I explain a lot in the hand that the guy is a mad man and I don't have a diamond so it's going in if possible.
Thanks for watching my videos, good luck at the tables!
Rule one on Zoom: If you think you're ahead.... you're not
Not a lot you could do different here tbf. Anyone saying they always run terribly - you need to stop segregating gains and integrating losses.
Yeah just one of those days mate!
always play without hud ? You play normaly in stars? Why no info on statname.net ?
My HUD is active but hidden to protect the integrity of the game.
When did u start playing poker?
About 14 years ago!
Tough session for sure, but you didn't have the right mindset and had to stop it after couple of buy ins down. Easier said than done tho.
Good luck for the next time
I don't think my mindset had too much of an effect on my decisions to be fair. There are only a couple of situations I could have saved some money. I will always take a break if I feel I'm making bad decisions but I didn't feel I was. Obviously I wish I had stopped regardless lol. Thanks for watching.
Is it me or you are less taking your time and clic faster when you run bad ?
Not that I'm aware of!
You raised river all in with low set where there are straights possible, you 5b jammed KK vs UTG 4bet from a nit. You also said "I have to call this" a bunch. And always lost.
You raised/called off a bunch of tp's as well.
Are you aware of how to exploit nits? I think you're donating them big time.
For the set, I assume you are talking about 77, which is a very, very clear jam. KK vs even nits is never going to be bad to get in at 120bbs, we could also call but certainly not a mistake. Just because I call and lose doesn't make something a bad call, a decision is never bad based on the results of that decision. I can't find any top pair hands that I hugely dislike my decisions in either. I could have said 1-2 buy ins this session, I've looked it over with players a lot better than me, but this was just a tough session. Thanks for your feedback and for watching.
@@eastyyy22 77 is a "very, very" clear jam to get paid off by what exactly? Straights? Nit doesnt get there with lower sets, and he might hero fold anyhow. KK is never going to be bad for 120bb's vs nits 4betting from lowjack? Again, to get paid by what? "Certainly not a mistake"??? Calling and losing always cant be bad? Raising tp's vs nits isnt bad? We see the game differently, thanks for your reply though and GL at the tables
@@fedea82 To be fair, I use the term 'nit' pretty loosely. 'Calling and losing' is something you've said again but whether we lose or not is really not something to consider, only whether we think the decision makes money. If you don't think it does, that's totally fine. I'm not sure what TP vs nit you are referring to, but I fast play 2 AQs on Q high boards, both vs non-nits and both I think are reasonable. But yeah, maybe we do see things differently and that's totally fine! Gl to you too.
Ι really don't understand why you are so surprised.This is happening to me EVERY DAY EVERY DAY of my life since the day I started playing poker.Poker is a game of LUCK admit it.Some people will tell you that a skilled player will win in the long run......WRONG it is exactly the opposite in the long run the most LUCKY wins.!!!
Guys don't waste time playing online poker.. it's just luck most of the time
The Highlight by 6:38 !!!
Standard limp call utg these days.
You were definitely tilted here because you played some of those hands pretty poorly. The AJhh jam was a good example
You don't have to be tilted to play a hand badly!
@@eastyyy22 No, but some of the choices seemed rather uncharacteristic, which is a clear sign of the mentality of a player being off. Its a weirdly-phrased compliment!
@@Arguhhh Haha fair enough! I definitely could have saved money, not a lot though to be fair I don't think. I can always play better but I'm not overly enthused with my overall play at the moment. I need to study more but my time is really limited. Thanks for watching!
Christ mate that was painful to watch, only silver lining is having faith in the laws of mathematics which will swing in your favour at some point
Only so much you can do sometimes!
wtf this video omg this has to be the worst run out of history, really I've never run this badly ever, like in 10 years of poker lol omg
Yes, thanks you. Stop doing all that stupid videos about how to deal with tilting. This is what we need, wachting someone who has the same bad luck.
you may know gto but you dont know common sense. 4 to a str flush out there .. your top pairs probably no good mate.