Hi guys! First of all, good to see Aidan back! Best of luck mate. There is something I wanted to get your opinion on. I'm just trying to put my head around how you can actually make a living off betting, i.e. what bankroll and ROI would you need to be able to do it. Here is a scenario I came up with: Assumptions 1. ROI = 6.5% (as mentioned in the video this is considered a very good long term ROI) 2. No of bets per year = 500 (I assumed app. 10 bets a week on av, it's hard for me to think you'd be able to come up with more high quality bets and still get 6.5% ROI but shout if you disagree) 3. Av stake per bet = 2% (many would argue this is too aggressive but let's go with it for the sake of argument for now) Results If you hit the metrics above, you'd achieve on average ROCE of 65% (500 bets *2%*6.5%) in a year. This means that if you started the year with £10,000 at the end of the year you'd have £16,500, netting a profit of £6,500. However, to get close to median UK earnings (£30,000) your bankroll would need to be around £50,000 and your average bet would need to £1,000 (!). So, in order to achieve a median income, you'd need to be able to invest quite a lot (£50k) and place bets at very high stakes (£1k) which for most would be hard to handle mentally (imagine starting with a 5 match loosing streak and being £5k down after a week, I'm not sure many would be able to handle it and maintain their confidence). Conclusion Even if you happen to be a good bettor able to achieve a LT ROI of 6.5%, have £50k available to play and have nerves of steel to stake £1k per bet and if everything goes your way you'll end up...making a median UK income. Surely, someone like Aidan who is educated and intelligent, could easily get a job paying him more and without having to risk any of his own money. So, what's the point? Am I missing something here? Looking forward to hear your thoughts! Lukasz
Hi Lukasz, Good to hear from you mate. Logically, everything you've said makes sense but there's some additional elements to the equation that I'll outline that makes the idea of working full time on betting less daunting & requires less aversion to risk. First thing to note with the above is that the assumption is that all the income is being generated from my own personal tennis betting alone and that equates to my whole income. This isn't the case in reality as it leads me to exposed to variance and risk and I don't have the nerves of steel to want to ride that type of randomness. It would create too much pressure on my betting and I don't think it would be good on the bottom line. Instead in regards to my own betting, let's instead start with a hypothetical bankroll of £20k available and let's assume I'm instead playing with a 200pt bank so that my average bet is £100. For my tennis I'll usually bet around 100pts a month with my personal betting and say with an average ROI of 6.5% in future, a 6.5pt profit and £650 which is nowhere close to a median income. But then I'll maybe be following 6-7 other tipsters (low maitenance but profitable on betfair exchange is aim) and in reality I'll be staking around 500pts a month in total with some having higher average odds and lower volume. On that bank, lets assume I can achieve an ROI of 5% which would equate to 25pts of profit at £100 a pt. This would equate to £25,000 a year (tax free due to UK gambling laws) which would be close to a £37k salary in UK job market. Then I'm also diversifying income in having my own tipping service. Lets say I average 6.5 units of profit in the future, have around 50 paying clients and charging £5 a pt and I take around 75% after paying some others cuts (brother with bot for example). I would make around £25 a month per client from the bot (6.5 x £5 * 0.75). And if you multiply that by 50 it would equate to an additional £1,250 a month which isn't a bad side income! Also, I now have the other bot services on the platform where I take a certain revenue share also which equates to additional income. Of course, the more quality tipsters I have on the platform, the more income I will make in the future. I won't give too much specifics but I'm sure you can imagine there is a lot of potential in this if executed smartly! So with these very realistic figures as a framework you can see there becomes an ability to turn this into a full time income without taking too much risk due to diversification. There's also the fact I love this line of work and how I'm able to spend my time on intellectually stimulating problems that I have a sense of control of my own destiny in how my decisions affect my own bottom line. My worst nightmare is the type of stories I get from friends in the corporate world where this really is not the case! Of course there will always be an element of risk of how much income you earn but I think I'm getting to a point of getting enough eggs in different baskets to be more in control of these risks moving forward and to reduce the general volatility that would arise from singularly betting on the tennis alone! I hope this answers your questions! :) Aidan
Hi, thanks for such a great podcast. In regards to tacking your bets I 100 % agree , its essential. Can u recommend any good Trackers please to log bets etc ?? Thanks love from London uk ✌💙
Hi, thanks for such a great podcast. In regards to tacking your bets I 100 % agree , its essential. Can u recommend any good Trackers please to log bets etc ?? Thanks love from London uk ✌💙
Exelente chat guys, really inspiring for a beginner tipster
Hi guys!
First of all, good to see Aidan back! Best of luck mate.
There is something I wanted to get your opinion on. I'm just trying to put my head around how you can actually make a living off betting, i.e. what bankroll and ROI would you need to be able to do it. Here is a scenario I came up with:
Assumptions
1. ROI = 6.5% (as mentioned in the video this is considered a very good long term ROI)
2. No of bets per year = 500 (I assumed app. 10 bets a week on av, it's hard for me to think you'd be able to come up with more high quality bets and still get 6.5% ROI but shout if you disagree)
3. Av stake per bet = 2% (many would argue this is too aggressive but let's go with it for the sake of argument for now)
Results
If you hit the metrics above, you'd achieve on average ROCE of 65% (500 bets *2%*6.5%) in a year.
This means that if you started the year with £10,000 at the end of the year you'd have £16,500, netting a profit of £6,500.
However, to get close to median UK earnings (£30,000) your bankroll would need to be around £50,000 and your average bet would need to £1,000 (!). So, in order to achieve a median income, you'd need to be able to invest quite a lot (£50k) and place bets at very high stakes (£1k) which for most would be hard to handle mentally (imagine starting with a 5 match loosing streak and being £5k down after a week, I'm not sure many would be able to handle it and maintain their confidence).
Conclusion
Even if you happen to be a good bettor able to achieve a LT ROI of 6.5%, have £50k available to play and have nerves of steel to stake £1k per bet and if everything goes your way you'll end up...making a median UK income. Surely, someone like Aidan who is educated and intelligent, could easily get a job paying him more and without having to risk any of his own money. So, what's the point? Am I missing something here?
Looking forward to hear your thoughts!
Lukasz
Hi Lukasz,
Good to hear from you mate. Logically, everything you've said makes sense but there's some additional elements to the equation that I'll outline that makes the idea of working full time on betting less daunting & requires less aversion to risk.
First thing to note with the above is that the assumption is that all the income is being generated from my own personal tennis betting alone and that equates to my whole income. This isn't the case in reality as it leads me to exposed to variance and risk and I don't have the nerves of steel to want to ride that type of randomness. It would create too much pressure on my betting and I don't think it would be good on the bottom line.
Instead in regards to my own betting, let's instead start with a hypothetical bankroll of £20k available and let's assume I'm instead playing with a 200pt bank so that my average bet is £100.
For my tennis I'll usually bet around 100pts a month with my personal betting and say with an average ROI of 6.5% in future, a 6.5pt profit and £650 which is nowhere close to a median income.
But then I'll maybe be following 6-7 other tipsters (low maitenance but profitable on betfair exchange is aim) and in reality I'll be staking around 500pts a month in total with some having higher average odds and lower volume. On that bank, lets assume I can achieve an ROI of 5% which would equate to 25pts of profit at £100 a pt. This would equate to £25,000 a year (tax free due to UK gambling laws) which would be close to a £37k salary in UK job market.
Then I'm also diversifying income in having my own tipping service. Lets say I average 6.5 units of profit in the future, have around 50 paying clients and charging £5 a pt and I take around 75% after paying some others cuts (brother with bot for example). I would make around £25 a month per client from the bot (6.5 x £5 * 0.75). And if you multiply that by 50 it would equate to an additional £1,250 a month which isn't a bad side income!
Also, I now have the other bot services on the platform where I take a certain revenue share also which equates to additional income. Of course, the more quality tipsters I have on the platform, the more income I will make in the future. I won't give too much specifics but I'm sure you can imagine there is a lot of potential in this if executed smartly!
So with these very realistic figures as a framework you can see there becomes an ability to turn this into a full time income without taking too much risk due to diversification. There's also the fact I love this line of work and how I'm able to spend my time on intellectually stimulating problems that I have a sense of control of my own destiny in how my decisions affect my own bottom line. My worst nightmare is the type of stories I get from friends in the corporate world where this really is not the case!
Of course there will always be an element of risk of how much income you earn but I think I'm getting to a point of getting enough eggs in different baskets to be more in control of these risks moving forward and to reduce the general volatility that would arise from singularly betting on the tennis alone!
I hope this answers your questions! :)
Aidan
Hi, thanks for such a great podcast. In regards to tacking your bets I 100 % agree , its essential. Can u recommend any good Trackers please to log bets etc ?? Thanks love from London uk ✌💙
Interesting. Doing research is so important. I've seen drawdown of 250 points from winning strategies. That would blow most people banks.
Yep variance can be crazy sometimes :(
Hi, thanks for such a great podcast. In regards to tacking your bets I 100 % agree , its essential. Can u recommend any good Trackers please to log bets etc ?? Thanks love from London uk ✌💙
@roberHuggins-lm1mb Everything is tracked in our software, besides what you played we have a graph of wins, losses, tec.