Definitely an interesting cycle. It's not the new kid on the block anymore, everyone has heard of it, it's less volatile, and more people are "ready for it this time".
Personally, I think we are following the path we normally do. We are just really heated at the moment because of ETF inflows and halving hype; however, that will quickly dissolve when rate cuts begin and paper investors get scared. If we were in a left-translated cycle, I think alt/BTC pairs would have broken down earlier. Regarding the ROI from the top, I think that can be explained by the ETFs - more people are able to speculate on the price action. The yield curve stuff to me suggest that the bull market could get "cancelled" by a recession later this year, resulting in a left-translated cycle, but not that there is anything different from previous cycles at the moment.
What you’re saying makes perfect sense. But whenever I think I know what’s gonna happen, I’m always unpleasantly surprised. That means BTC is gonna take off after the halving
Hey Ben keep in mind that it took 9 months for the Fed to cut rates in 2019 but they were at a lower interest rate then before, 2.5%. If we follow instead the 2007 to late 2008 rate cuts from 5.25% to 0.25%, we're looking at 16 months till they finish rate cuts. So we may not see quantitative easing until well past 9 months.
Before each recession there have been people that called recession years prior. No recession ever has been easy to time and no recession ever will, if it was it would be avoided..
Govs will never allow market retractions, hence the constsnt redefining of what a recession is. Number go up, but so does gov spending, so does cpi. The only number that goes down is gdp per capita, which in reality is the ONLY number that should matters to voters.
Glad you picked up Bob's theory, coz if we really go left translated, a lot more people will fall for the mega hype and loose all their money, not knowing.
Could the ATH’s before the halving be due to a more educated/seasoned pool of investors? At this point, people know a bull market tends to follow a BTC halving so maybe the “smart money” is trying to fill their bags?
ATH is coming sooner, at least on my charts. I think the hash rate is speeding the cycle up in my humble opinion. I have gann boxes that show possible Aug 13th to Oct 5 dates even a June 6-9 2024 on another chart, either way key dates to watch.
So is the suggestion that we'll top out in April and then see 6-9 month bear market? Most seem to be saying we're in for a bull market for another 12 months?
Well one thing is for sure; I will be checking back to see what the alt bitcoin dominance is so I guess I will be watching Ben videos for a long time. When history looks back on the Cowen will be one of those guys that has a principle or equation named after him like Werner Heisenberg has the Heisenberg Principle, Farraday has the Farraday Law of Electromagnetic Induction ... the Bitcoin dominance will be called the "Ben Cowen ratio" ...
Can you maybe do a bull vs bear case for btc.d video? I feel like usually you are good at covering both sides of an argument but on btc.d you continue to only see 1 potential outcome. I think it's at least possible that btc.d breaks down or we are nearing the end of the accumulation phase for many alt/btc pairs right now, and any alt that is still not holding against btc should not be held at all going forward.
Ben has been going hard in the paint lately I remember in 2021 Ben once said "I'll probably stop posting videos every day when this cycle top is in" His content has only gotten more committed since then.
Great video, been listening to you for a couple years now! You used to do a great series called Lengthening Cycles and Diminishing Returns. The series came to an abrupt (and unfortunate) end when the cycle ended early, but I found the argument so convincing that I continued to believe in it, even after you had dropped the idea. I do AGREE that you made the right call, and I ended up DCA-ing into a bear market cycle (but that is all fine now that the market is back, haha), but I was wondering if you would consider and do an analysis of the hypothetical... WHAT IF CYCLE 4 NEVER ENDED? I respect that you don't believe this, so maybe add it to a "dubious speculation"? It always bothered me that Cycle 4 never reached a "proper" high (and didn't match the lengthening cycle), so what if there is a cycle within a cycle? You were correct to call the cycle end, but what if it was just a massive local top and not the "real" end to the cycle? As you say, there are no rules with bitcoin! I couldn't find the exact video (I think it was in a live), but I literally paused your video and put a ruler to the monitor, and I wrote down Bitcoin 231,812 on 8/1/2023. Obviously, we didn't hit that target. But I would be seriously interested if you combined your Cycle 4 and 5, and see where a possible new projection would point us along the Lengthening Cycles and Diminishing Returns line? Thank you for all of your work! I don't believe in all of your theories, but I think your logic is sound and it does result in one of the best risk-adjusted ROI strategies.
Thank you very much for your videos, Ben! So in both scenarions you think that we will have (or maybe had at 74k) a local top between now and may. Is that correct?
I think that if rate cut comes due to the u/e rate then, yes, the market will lose confidence in the system and go risk off. But if the market doesn't read it that way, then I am not totally convinced this will happen. But yes, I agree a true alt season won't start until after rate cuts.
@@josephzaki4353 falling against btc right? So is the argument that rn altcoins are tracking btc and once btc dominance reaches a very high point then we could be looking at a pullback?
Hello Benjamin, thanks for another great point of view. Am I right that when you say "break all BTC pairs" you mean that the BTC price will deteriorate letting liquidity flow into the altcoins?
As i mentioned in a previous comment. I personally think (thanks to your comments on M2) that the current run up to ATH prior to halving is likely related to factors of inflation/M2 etc rather than simply running up with a left translated cycle top incoming. But what do i know
I still dont understand why you dont try to take the hypothesis that we are in a similar position as jan 2021. Tendancy, trend, btc move, alt move, everything look similar. It looks like you get biaised because of your analysis taking all alts bleeding to btc, as some are "dead" so they will bleed forever, but the new ones are getting to this really high level. Anyway i like your video, even if i am not alined, it gives a wider view of what could happen.
One aspect you're not really showing is how little the price dropped in 2022 compared to 2018. This would also explain why, with relatively normal price structure, BTC has come back up to the ATH sooner. This would also contribute to a left translated appearance.
the 3 cycle tops seem to be off by just a month (dec, dec, nov) while the halvings are off by half a year (nov, jul, may) in that respect i don't see a very strong correlation between halving and top
Everything's bullish. Don't fight it. We can speculate using past history all we want. It's useless given the large differences in the market this cycle.
If we're considering a left translated peak or an imitation of a stock market move, then it's not BTC we're talking about. I haven't gone through the algo behind BTC but I'm sure it wasn't written to mimic other stock market moves or an elliott wave or any such theories of left/right translated cycles. We know BTC is a different kind of commodity and if BTC is truly different, it's going to play out like it did every other cycle barring times of recession or economic woes! This early peak narrative is just another way to engage the audience imo and does not hold any credibility.
CMP another highly shorted stock; fell -18% earlier this week and up 15% yesterday 😳 criptoes need to sell a bit more, youraniyum needs to sell a bit more, everything needs to sell a bit more overall its all up too much too long
This analysis doesn’t make sense with the prevailing Bitcoin Bible narrative since rate cuts would in that line of thinking cause price increase due to desire to hold an asset that will benefit due to inflation.
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0:00 - INTRO
1:44 - Normal Cycle
5:52 - Rate Cuts
10:11 - Black Swan
13:30 - Blue Chips
16:31 - Cool-Off Phase
19:22 - Shifted Three Quarters
29:02 - 100Week MA
34:43 - ITC Premium💫Risk Metric
37:26 - Left-Translated Peak
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48:32 - Being Bitcoin Heavy
52:14 - Competing Views
55:31 - Three Wave Structure
58:13 - Closing Summary
1:01:41 - Closing Thoughts
1:03:55 - OUTRO
Great ideas to look at, keep up the videos! Always enjoy more info !!!
Enjoy it thx 🎉
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Definitely an interesting cycle. It's not the new kid on the block anymore, everyone has heard of it, it's less volatile, and more people are "ready for it this time".
Wonderful sequence of videos this past 5 days .
All related and complements each other .
Personally, I think we are following the path we normally do. We are just really heated at the moment because of ETF inflows and halving hype; however, that will quickly dissolve when rate cuts begin and paper investors get scared. If we were in a left-translated cycle, I think alt/BTC pairs would have broken down earlier. Regarding the ROI from the top, I think that can be explained by the ETFs - more people are able to speculate on the price action. The yield curve stuff to me suggest that the bull market could get "cancelled" by a recession later this year, resulting in a left-translated cycle, but not that there is anything different from previous cycles at the moment.
What you’re saying makes perfect sense. But whenever I think I know what’s gonna happen, I’m always unpleasantly surprised. That means BTC is gonna take off after the halving
Now you’ve said that it’s going to take off. So it’s not gonna take off. Thanks a lot man, now I have to sell..
Hey Ben keep in mind that it took 9 months for the Fed to cut rates in 2019 but they were at a lower interest rate then before, 2.5%.
If we follow instead the 2007 to late 2008 rate cuts from 5.25% to 0.25%, we're looking at 16 months till they finish rate cuts.
So we may not see quantitative easing until well past 9 months.
Right up there with the best as far as analysis goes. Thank you, Ben.
People been calling recession for 3 years.
Before each recession there have been people that called recession years prior. No recession ever has been easy to time and no recession ever will, if it was it would be avoided..
Every time we start to crash they print money. 😂 which makes the problem worse in the long run
Govs will never allow market retractions, hence the constsnt redefining of what a recession is. Number go up, but so does gov spending, so does cpi. The only number that goes down is gdp per capita, which in reality is the ONLY number that should matters to voters.
They did the same thing in 2007 and it all came to fruition. Just saying.
Ive been hearing recession Since 2016
Congratulations for your content Benjamin, rigorous and interesting as always. Greetings from Spain.
Ahhh yes, an hour long Ben Cowen rant to start my day 🎉
Today is a good day😎
Glad you picked up Bob's theory, coz if we really go left translated, a lot more people will fall for the mega hype and loose all their money, not knowing.
God bless you with health and wealth, Ben.
Thanks Ben lots of great analysis to think about,, you’re a humble scholar. My hat goes off to you.
Thanks for gr3at video Ben. Happy Easter 🐣
Can't explain in words how much I Love you
23:30 does that have alts at 0%?
Really appreciate the in-depth scenarios!
You keep comparing to 2021, could you please compare to 2017 rally, and include, alts, rates and so on..
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Could the ATH’s before the halving be due to a more educated/seasoned pool of investors? At this point, people know a bull market tends to follow a BTC halving so maybe the “smart money” is trying to fill their bags?
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Very honest guy. Huge respect Ben. Not many people admit their mistakes.
ATH is coming sooner, at least on my charts. I think the hash rate is speeding the cycle up in my humble opinion. I have gann boxes that show possible Aug 13th to Oct 5 dates even a June 6-9 2024 on another chart, either way key dates to watch.
Gann tools are cool but nobody should ever rely on a tool so heavily. What makes you so confident?
Have you considered that adjusting the formula to (TOTAL3-(USDT+USDC))/BTC might yield different results?
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Where do the BTC ETFs come in to play here? Those "buyers" aren't trading in and out of BTC. Do they hold up the lower lows?
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Normal Cycle, Brilliant Ben!
doesnt seem normal
So is the suggestion that we'll top out in April and then see 6-9 month bear market? Most seem to be saying we're in for a bull market for another 12 months?
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Are altcoins done for at this point or just haven’t had their peak yet?
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Well one thing is for sure; I will be checking back to see what the alt bitcoin dominance is so I guess I will be watching Ben videos for a long time. When history looks back on the Cowen will be one of those guys that has a principle or equation named after him like Werner Heisenberg has the Heisenberg Principle, Farraday has the Farraday Law of Electromagnetic Induction ... the Bitcoin dominance will be called the "Ben Cowen ratio" ...
Hi @benjamin, how do you determine the day 0 of different cycles?
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If you adjust for inflation...does the recent top look even more similar to 2019 lower top?
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Can you maybe do a bull vs bear case for btc.d video? I feel like usually you are good at covering both sides of an argument but on btc.d you continue to only see 1 potential outcome. I think it's at least possible that btc.d breaks down or we are nearing the end of the accumulation phase for many alt/btc pairs right now, and any alt that is still not holding against btc should not be held at all going forward.
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Ben has been going hard in the paint lately
I remember in 2021 Ben once said "I'll probably stop posting videos every day when this cycle top is in"
His content has only gotten more committed since then.
What about if we're just 6 months into the bullrun right now, meaning 6 months from now being cycle top a year early !
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Great video, been listening to you for a couple years now! You used to do a great series called Lengthening Cycles and Diminishing Returns. The series came to an abrupt (and unfortunate) end when the cycle ended early, but I found the argument so convincing that I continued to believe in it, even after you had dropped the idea. I do AGREE that you made the right call, and I ended up DCA-ing into a bear market cycle (but that is all fine now that the market is back, haha), but I was wondering if you would consider and do an analysis of the hypothetical... WHAT IF CYCLE 4 NEVER ENDED? I respect that you don't believe this, so maybe add it to a "dubious speculation"? It always bothered me that Cycle 4 never reached a "proper" high (and didn't match the lengthening cycle), so what if there is a cycle within a cycle? You were correct to call the cycle end, but what if it was just a massive local top and not the "real" end to the cycle? As you say, there are no rules with bitcoin! I couldn't find the exact video (I think it was in a live), but I literally paused your video and put a ruler to the monitor, and I wrote down Bitcoin 231,812 on 8/1/2023. Obviously, we didn't hit that target. But I would be seriously interested if you combined your Cycle 4 and 5, and see where a possible new projection would point us along the Lengthening Cycles and Diminishing Returns line? Thank you for all of your work! I don't believe in all of your theories, but I think your logic is sound and it does result in one of the best risk-adjusted ROI strategies.
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ALTCOIN SEASON? Can you speak on Ethereum etc. by the way thank you Ben for the update dude!
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Hoping to see Bob Loukas return to discuss this
well explained and interesting! my guess! everything will done till Q4 and then recession 2025 ;) Top above 100K then Altcoins rally and end of cycle!
Do you think we’ll see the alt rally in 2024 😳? Or did I read that wrong
@@zmoney6818 if this is a left translated cycle which I think it is! yes we should see the BTC top and alt coin follow probably Q3 and Q4 2024
Good that you took up others on the charts 😊
Update thoughts on Left cycle?
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Then sell in may and go away right?
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Thank you very much for your videos, Ben!
So in both scenarions you think that we will have (or maybe had at 74k) a local top between now and may. Is that correct?
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Brother, what about update?
Thank you Ben! Does “BTC logarithmic regression rainbow Theory” still in play if the market cool off after rate cut?
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You are a hero Ben
I think that if rate cut comes due to the u/e rate then, yes, the market will lose confidence in the system and go risk off. But if the market doesn't read it that way, then I am not totally convinced this will happen. But yes, I agree a true alt season won't start until after rate cuts.
what if its a Right Translated Top?
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left translated is most likely IMO now. But if we go sideways more, then yah, you make a good case.
Good thoughts! thank U 4 saring
Ben!
great stuff dude thanks
When he says “altcoin pairs breaking down” does he mean altcoins falling compared to btc or btc falling compared to altcoins?
Yes🧮(TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC = “ALT/BTC pairs break⬇️down”👉11:22✔️the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream, Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions🪑
They lose Satoshi value not necessarily USD value .
@@josephzaki4353 falling against btc right?
So is the argument that rn altcoins are tracking btc and once btc dominance reaches a very high point then we could be looking at a pullback?
Hello Benjamin, thanks for another great point of view. Am I right that when you say "break all BTC pairs" you mean that the BTC price will deteriorate letting liquidity flow into the altcoins?
*No* 🧮(TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC = “ALT/BTC pairs break⬇️down”👉11:22✔️the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream, Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnDecisions🪑
I don't understand how money from a Bitcoin ETF is going to flow into alts. Different investors. They are not interested in alts.
No he’s saying the exact opposite: Altcoins will bleed to btc and that btc will outperform in every way in every potential situation.
As i mentioned in a previous comment. I personally think (thanks to your comments on M2) that the current run up to ATH prior to halving is likely related to factors of inflation/M2 etc rather than simply running up with a left translated cycle top incoming. But what do i know
I still dont understand why you dont try to take the hypothesis that we are in a similar position as jan 2021. Tendancy, trend, btc move, alt move, everything look similar. It looks like you get biaised because of your analysis taking all alts bleeding to btc, as some are "dead" so they will bleed forever, but the new ones are getting to this really high level. Anyway i like your video, even if i am not alined, it gives a wider view of what could happen.
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🙏🙏Great presentation/ explanation of the possibilities, but I'm almost as confused as before watching it. My fault in being less crypto savvy!
One aspect you're not really showing is how little the price dropped in 2022 compared to 2018. This would also explain why, with relatively normal price structure, BTC has come back up to the ATH sooner. This would also contribute to a left translated appearance.
It aged well!
Seems like it is going to be plan 2025. Would be nice to see part 2
the 3 cycle tops seem to be off by just a month (dec, dec, nov) while the halvings are off by half a year (nov, jul, may)
in that respect i don't see a very strong correlation between halving and top
Tks from Brazil
This was a great video
The main question that everyone should ask is how altcoins will break on btc pump or dump 🤔
And does it matter? :-) I am ok with both options. Get ready to buy more btc on the way down and you are fine right? 😅
Great video
Everything's bullish. Don't fight it. We can speculate using past history all we want. It's useless given the large differences in the market this cycle.
Thank you Benjamin
Well there has been multiple recessions since then. Plus a recession scare in 2016 which has the same effect.
This cycle will more likely be right translated.
Agreed. Curveball inbound
When will cycle theory get thrown out and we just realize this is a new game with the ETFs?
Its just the liquidity game.
❤ analysis 🔥
Thanks.
I think Larry likes left more 🤪
Ben, volume is again too low
🎉 thx 🎉
If we're considering a left translated peak or an imitation of a stock market move, then it's not BTC we're talking about. I haven't gone through the algo behind BTC but I'm sure it wasn't written to mimic other stock market moves or an elliott wave or any such theories of left/right translated cycles. We know BTC is a different kind of commodity and if BTC is truly different, it's going to play out like it did every other cycle barring times of recession or economic woes! This early peak narrative is just another way to engage the audience imo and does not hold any credibility.
CMP another highly shorted stock; fell -18% earlier this week and up 15% yesterday 😳 criptoes need to sell a bit more, youraniyum needs to sell a bit more, everything needs to sell a bit more overall its all up too much too long
does this guy ever run out of blue shirts?????????
lol… feel free to order one for yourself: store.intothecryptoverse.com 🤙
🔥🔥🔥
If Ben was a historian I'd bet he'd be a "trends and forces", not a "Great man of history" guy.
The clock will strike midnight soon. Don’t become a pumpkin
This analysis doesn’t make sense with the prevailing Bitcoin Bible narrative since rate cuts would in that line of thinking cause price increase due to desire to hold an asset that will benefit due to inflation.
Cowen corridor ftw
I’m selling a big chunk after six months, around 70 percent and leaving the rest to ride to the moon or be lost. I’m not going to be greedy.
💪
The only way I can see a left translated peak occurring is if there's a no landing or very mild recession.
Your outro sounds like terrible funeral music
So in all scenarios btc will make a low this year. To the boats!
1h